SB Nation User Blog: Michaelthebox

Losers at EliteXC: Kimbo vs. Some Guy

Michaelthebox — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 00:08:03 -0000

While every card in every organization has its share of winners and losers, the bizarre circumstances and shocking conclusion to the EliteXC event last night has resulted in far more losers than usual. Lets take a look at the big losers from last night, and where they go from here:

Kimbo: Last night's loss badly damaged his image, and his hopes of a huge payday after EliteXC are basically gone. While he may continue his MMA career, especially if EliteXC actively attempts to rebuild him on the backs of cans, he might be better served to move into movies and other entertainment forms. Pro Wrestling would play into his vicious appearance while covering up his lack of skill.

EliteXC: The promotion will have all sorts of hell coming back from this. They were basically walking a tightrope anyway, and Kimbo's loss sounds suspiciously like fraying and snapping. They may not be able to put together the funding to make it beyond November. If they do, some kind of boxing/MMA crosspromotion with Affliction on CBS could be their last gasp to stave off doom.

MMA's media presence: Remember how ESPN pulled back with singed fingers after Rampage knocked out Liddell? There may be a similar pullback after this, as disgusted potential fans write off MMA as a joke sport, and news outlets return to ignoring the sport completely. The UFC will continue to slowly develop its presence on the news, but for MMA as a whole the result is not good.

Aaron Rosa: Your opponent lucks into a pot of gold and you're out of a fight? Talk about a bum deal.

Women's MMA: For better or worse, EliteXC is the best shot for women's MMA to develop a consistent national presence in the US. If EliteXC goes down, women's MMA will be put back to the drawing board until Zuffa finally decides to start its own divisions. Carano would probably move on from EliteXC to more lucrative entertainment paydays, which would push back Zuffa's move into women's MMA.

Tito Ortiz: Tito craves a big payday, and his best shot at it is if EliteXC can survive well enough to have a realistic shot at profitability, while needing a huge PPV star to get there. With EliteXC running on fumes, they may never get to the point where Tito is a viable option. Tito may be best served by taking the best deal the UFC will offer, as at this point they may still be willing to overpay, just to get him off the market and send a message to their competitors. If EliteXC folds he'll probably be forced to ask for whatever the UFC will offer.

Affliction: EliteXC's long term survival is a good thing for Affliction, because using EliteXC's network presence is Affliction's best shot at developing their own PPV buys. If EliteXC fails, Affliction will be forced to return to the sticks and leaves method of marketing that resulted in a huge money loser for their first show and a cancelled second show.

Why The Ultimate Fighter No Longer Pays Well

Michaelthebox — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 19:50:39 -0000

Fronted by Luke Thomas.

Joe Lauzon's blog during TUF 5 provided good entertainment: he gave insight into the inner workings of the house and the relations between the fighters, as well as plenty of interesting tidbits they could not or did not show in the episodes. Pulver had a blog too, off on some random site outside the main forums and websites. Short of those two, I personally cannot remember any other fighters or coaches actively blogging on a weekly basis about the TUF experience on that season or prior.

Fast forward three seasons. For TUF 8, I have so far seen blogs from at least multiple fighters as well as one coach.

MMAJunkie: Ryan Bader and team Mir coach Ken Hahn

Fiveouncesofpain: Phillipe Nover

UFC.com: Junie Browning

CagePotato: Efrain Escudero

MMARated: John Polakowski

MMACanada: Kryzzyzdff Soszdzzki

Fightticker: Eliot Marshall (thanks szucconi!)

And those are only the ones I saw today; I also seem to recall seeing a blog by George Roop as well as an interview with Dave Kaplan, a couple interviews with injury-ousted TUFer Antwain Britt, and MMAWeekly's exit interview, today with Tom Lawlor.

This overwhelming supply of house insight has been caused by two factors. One obviously is the proliferation of major MMA websites, all trying to provide as much quality content as possible. But the other factor paints an ugly picture for the future of The Ultimate Fighter. That exposure that everybody points to as being payment for being on TUF? It ain't so valuable anymore.

The dirty secret of TUF is that the UFC continues to devalue the worth of TUF exposure every season. The first three seasons were pure gold in terms of exposure: a new concept that drew big audiences, characters that felt fresh and original, and a weak UFC roster that gave ample opportunities for main card exposure against cans. A fighter on TUF knew that even if he didn't do too well on TUF or in the UFC, the exposure, combined with the lack of well-known former UFC fighters, meant good paydays even in minor-league organizations.

The past few seasons have played a different note. While TUF 5 was filled with quality lightweights who should have been in the UFC already, the comparitive lack of talent in season 6 has ravaged the rosters of fighters trying to survive in the shark-filled UFC. After the ringer Danzig, Tommy Speer has already been released. Sotiropolous is injury plagued. Arroyo is underwhelming and doesn't look to escape the undercard anytime soon. Koppenhaver is gone. Ben Saunders is undercarded and uninteresting. Where is the expectation that these fighters will provide core talent over the next few years? And more than that, even if they last, do many people really remember them? I can probably name 5 or 6 fighters from season 3 who aren't in the UFC any more. Can you really recollect any of the characters from TUF 7 beyond Peepants and the top 2 or three other fighters? I can't, and that season ended only a few months ago. And the UFC has much less need to coddle their fighters. Will it make any difference to the UFC if Sadollah crashes and burns? They're already loaded with successful names and TUFers.

People have gradually lost interest in the characters of TUF, and in attempting to revitalize the franchise, the UFC basically tossed the "TUF" name in the woodchipper. Now every season sees 25 or more rejects, 16 in the first round followed by however many fail to impress in the house. The minor organizations are going to be flooded with former TUF fighters over the next few seasons, giving the name much less value when looking for a job at KOTC or Southwest Fury. And the greatly increased difficulty in establishing a new character that people will remember makes the TUF experience much less valuable overall.

TUF fighters have responded to this new buyer's market by increasing their attempts to gain exposure, both inside the house and outside. Inside the house, that translates to ridiculous stunts such as the upper decker, and outrageous behavior such as that of Junie Browning. (In his blog and interviews, he comes off as relatively intelligent and self-aware, to the degree that his behavior in the house could be at least partly a put-on.) Outside the house, more fighters are blogging, providing interviews, and generally marketing themselves than ever before.

While this increased competition benefits we MMA fans who get insights into the characters, the show, and the sport that we never got before, it also bodes poorly for the show itself. As the UFC continues to aggregate the top talent, and the most talented fighters choose to forego the TUF experience, the UFC will have to find new ways of making the show relevant. Failing that, they may finally put the old dog to rest.

What Couture vs. Lesnar Means for the UFC Heavyweight Division

Michaelthebox — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 07:13:38 -0000

Fronted by Luke Thomas.

This weekend has brought an absolute storm in the blogoland, with rumors flying of Randy coming back to face Lesnar at UFC 91, in what will almost certainly be a title match, as the first fight in a three-fight deal. This matchup, and the other rumors about Randy's return, suggest all sorts of interesting possibilities.

Scenario 1: Couture beats Lesnar

If Couture beats Lesnar, this sets up two possible matchups for Randy. First is the unification match with the winner of Nogueira/Mir. The second and more interesting matchup is the rumor of a fight with Fedor:

The long-rumored heavyweight superfight between UFC champion Randy Couture (16-8 MMA, 8-5 UFC) and WAMMA champion Fedor Emelianenko (28-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is currently being discussed for an as-yet-unspecified date in January or February of 2009.

I suggested in a previous fanpost that the matchup would never happen. Both my own and other people's analysis has been that the UFC would never build up Fedor just so he could fight elsewhere. But the UFC has access to better numbers than any of us. Its quite possible that they have run the calculus and concluded that the UFC is now untouchable by any upstart company grabbing top fighters: the cost of the top fighters would make it impossible to build brand equity and achieve break-even before going under. I figured it would be a few more years before this would be the case, but the struggles Affliction has encountered suggest that perhaps the day is already here. If it indeed is, the UFC doesn't have to worry about Fedor going elsewhere, because he costs too much for upstart promotions to survive his paycheck.

If a Randy/Fedor fight comes to fruition, the winner of Nog/Mir might be able to fight Werdum in the meantime. Afterwards, the title could be unified, or Randy's piece of the title could be retired if Fedor wins and then leaves.

Lesnar beats the crap out of Cheick Kongo in his rebound fight.

Scenario 2: Lesnar beats Couture

Lesnar's victory would propel him to the top of the UFC and a unification match against the winner of Nog/Mir. Either fight presents opportunities for the UFC. I personally think the Nog/Mir season of TUF will not be adequate to make Nog a star, as Mir simply isn't the right foil. A Lesnar/Nogueira fight is win/win for the UFC: either Lesnar beats Nogueira and legitimizes himself as an elite fighter, or Lesnar pounds the crap out of Noguiera and gets subbed at the last minute, and Nogueira becomes a superstar.

Alternately, the UFC gets a rematch of Mir/Lesnar. While this should do great PPV numbers, there is a real risk of Lesnar getting subbed again, which would put him in Rich Franklin limbo if Mir dominates the division for a while to come.

Stop laughing.

Couture's possibilities at this point become a lot more open ended. He could fight the loser of Nogueira/Mir. He could still fight Fedor as a superfight. He could drop down to 205 and have a fight with Rampage or a rematch with Tito, or another fight with Liddell. Potential money matches abound. Alternately, if he wants to stretch his career out a little further, he might take a rebound fight and draw the "demolish Cheick Kongo" card.

Regardless, this matchup suddenly saves what looked like a wasteland in the UFC HW division. Nog/Mir was a stopgap fight, which would be followed by a stopgap fight with a Werdum title shot, which would have been followed by. . . who knows. This matchup makes Nog/Mir a lot more interesting, and also pushes Werdum's title shot back while adding the possibility of Fedor sticking around. By the time the free-for-all settles down, one or both of Velasquez and Carwin should have reached contendership level, and Lesnar, win or lose, will be a top threat. What was a barren division a week ago suddenly looks ripe with possibility.

Why the "Living Wage" Has No Place in Today's UFC

Michaelthebox — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 05:28:40 -0000

Fronted by Chris Nelson

Over on Five Ounces of Pain, Sam Caplan has a nice piece throwing the "Muhammad Ali Act should apply to MMA" argument under the bus. However, in article and in the comments section, a discussion regarding the notion of the "living wage" has Caplan arguing that all UFC fighters should be paid enough that they be able to make a good living doing nothing but fighting:

However, a union would have the power to go to the UFC and set a higher-standard for minimum payments. Furthermore, a union would have the power to go to a promotion and negotiate things such as improved health benefits

. . .

A fighter should be happy with $26,000 a year? Only someone who lives with their parents would say such a thing. Maybe a 22-year old fighter should be happy with that, but what about a 30-year old fighter with a wife and kids?

Bloody Elbow's own Michael Rome neatly rebuts the moral arguments for a living wage:

Unlike many of the working poor who have structural pressure keeping them down, or come from broken homes or other terrible situations that make success hard, fighters have made a completely voluntary and unique choice to make a living while fighting. They made this choice with the clear knowledge of how much fighters make, nobody is hiding the ball from them, and there is nobody forcing them to do it. This is the perfect example of a market tradeoff where information is nearly perfect for both parties, there’s no reason to interfere.

However, both of these arguments address the issue from the wrong frame. The central issue with the living wage is not that it set the fighters against the promotions. The central issue is that it penalizes talent in favor of experience.

At this point in time, the difference in payouts between a top fighter in a minor league promotion and a fighter on his first UFC contract is significant, but not overwhelming. Both fighters will probably still need to work a day job or act as a trainer to supplement their income, which will result in less time to train and a lower rate of improvement in their game. If the minor league prospect gets promoted and fights the UFC fighter with two or three fights under his belt, both are working with similar levels of training and experience beyond the difference in "UFC jitters." If the prospect is more talented, the prospect has a better than even chance to win the fight.

The living wage changes that completely. The inexperienced UFC fighter, fighting with a living wage, has been training full-time for nearly a year. He trained full-time and is in the best shape of his life against the entering prospect, who still works at Arby's full time. Even if the entering prospect is more talented, his odds are poorer against a fighter who is less talented and marginally more experienced, but vastly more prepared.

While the super-prospects will still likely do fine, the mid-level prospects, the late bloomers, and the toss-ups, will experience much more attrition early in their careers, as they get demolished in their first few UFC fights by less talented fighters who have trained full time for years. While this would be a problem in any sport, the problem is magnified in MMA, where experience and training plays a relatively larger part in competition than talent. One ugly possibility rears its head: a class of less talented, but older and better trained fighters, knocking off talent as it comes up thanks in large part to years of full-time training. In the current UFC system, less talented fighters will decline to sub-living wage payouts, forcing them to spend less time training and opening the window for a prospect. That prospect, still working a day job but talented and hungry, has a decent chance against the less talented older fighter who also isn't training full time, and doesn't feel the need to work for those substandard payouts.

The living wage will instead result in the prospect working his day job, fighting older less talented fighters who can train full time and are holding onto that living wage for dear life. He's more likely to lose his first few fights, get pushed back out of the UFC onto sub-standard minor league payouts, and drop out of the fight game.

The way to counter this is by having a coherent minor league system that promotes full-time training, similar to what Major League Baseball has with their minor league system and NFL with college football. Under such a system, an MMA prospect would have both hunger, as he is still being paid next to nothing, and a clear method to satisfy that hunger: train full time, get a call up, and win some UFC fights. However, until the UFC or MMA in general develops such a minor league system, a living wage in the UFC would be a disaster for the fighters trying to break into the big leagues without the luxury of full time training.

In a UFC fight, the advantage usually goes to whoever is more talented and more hungry. But if UFC fighters earned a living wage, the advantage wouldn't go to the more talented, more hungry fighter. The advantage would go the fighter who has been in the UFC longer.

Wagnney Fabiano Signs With WEC

Michaelthebox — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 21:47:42 -0000

Fronted by Chris Nelson

The next IFL chip has fallen, and in this case it is IFL Featherweight Champion Wagnney Fabiano to the WEC, according to Brazilian website Tatame:

Considered one of the best lightweight fighters of the world, the IFL champion Wagnney Fabiano signed with WEC, to fight in bantamweight division.

. . .

"Faber is the best of the world now. To beat him, I think you have to be in a good shape. He’s an expert fighter and he has a good gas, it’s complicated to beat a guy like him. You have to set a good game plan and be calm and watch the elbows, because if you hits you can chane a whole fight", said the Nova União athlete

While the WEC will need a fight or two to introduce Wagnney to their audience, a Faber/Fabiano fight would be yet another quality matchup for Faber, which is one of the keys to increasing the WEC's exposure. Competitive matchups involving Faber and Torres are catnip to hardcore fans and provide incredible excitement to the casuals.

Over the past year, the WEC has done a fantastic job aggregating the top featherweight and bantamweight talent. When the WEC middleweight and light heavyweight divisions move over to the UFC and free up more room on the WEC cards, the WEC may be able to develop the same level of dominance in the featherweight and bantamweight divisions that the UFC has achieved in the welterweight and light heavyweight divisions. Shooto is WEC's primary competition at featherweight and bantamweight, with a similar level of talent in the two divisions. None of the major organizations competing with Zuffa have featherweight or bantamweight divisions of note.

If Faber and Torres can take the WEC to the next level, the WEC may be able to afford payouts to challenge the advantages Shooto fighters receive by staying in Japan. One wonders though, even if they could, would the WEC want to fill up their divisions with so many Japanese fighters?

Why Fedor vs. Randy Will Never Happen, in the UFC or Elsewhere

Michaelthebox — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 23:43:03 -0000

Over the past few days, a new rash of Fedor/Randy news has started the blogosphere talking, starting with the couple's canoodling in LA, followed by Vadim's statements to Sherdog reiterating their willingness to work with the UFC. That was followed by Randy's statements on Adam Carolla's show, saying he believed his paycheck for that fight should be $6-10 million.

Pramit Mohapatra over at FightTicker did a fine job of debunking Randy's claims as to reasonable pay:

At $50 a pop, 700,000 PPV buys gives us $35 million in PPV revenue. Give the PPV broadcaster half and the promotion ends up with $17.5 million.

Now, UFC 87 (with an announced attendance in the neighborhood of 15,000) made a reported live gate of $2.2 million. Let's be generous and say that Randy-Fedor garners a live gate of $3 million.

. . .

(Without all costs) factored in, Couture's estimate of a $12-20 million total payout for both him and Fedor seems very unrealistic.

However, that still leaves open a couple of questions: what would be reasonable pay and terms for that fight to take place in the UFC? And will those terms prevent the fight from ever happening?

Working with Pramit's numbers, an expected revenue of $17.5 million for the promotion would have to be divided up by fighter revenue, promotion revenue, and the costs for putting together and promoting the event, as well as the substantial interest costs on Zuffa's debt. If those costs are estimated at approximately 7-10 million (as this fight would clearly require a great deal more advertising than most UFC fights, as Fedor is basically an unknown to the majority of UFC fans,) that leaves maybe 9-10 million to split between Fedor, Randy, and the promotion. With a 50/50 split, that leaves about 5 million for the fighters, with Randy and Fedor each getting a little over 2 million and the rest of the fighters getting about 700k.

However, this breakdown ignores the non-monetary issues, almost all of which currently run against Randy/Fedor. First is the fact that the UFC holds most of the leverage right now. The UFC does not need Randy/Fedor, while Randy needs this fight soon if he ever wants to have it.

Second is the fact that the value of this fight declines by the day. The longer Randy is out of the public eye and the longer other upstart promotions lose money without breaking through, the less likely Randy will be able to get a big payday out of this fight when he finally gets out from under the UFC's thumb. This was the biggest fight of all time a year ago. Right now, its still a big fight, but many people have lost interest in favor of Fedor/Barnett or Fedor/Arlovski. A year and a half from now, the fight may not have that value of being a breakout fight for another promotion, and Randy will never fight again. With the UFC appearing fully capable of drawing out the legal issues until kingdom come, that deadline has to loom in Randy's mind.

Third, Randy's continued abrasiveness in regards to the UFC and his open rejection of their contract and policies makes him less valuable to the organization. The UFC does not want to hype up a fight with a guy who may fight, then promptly turn around and resume devaluing the UFC with his words and actions. He can't be expected to continue bringing in money for the UFC with following fights, since he's already shown his willingness to abandon the company and his contract. In fact, if he does win, does he hold out for a superfight with Arlovski? The UFC may end up trading one superfight headache for another. And what signal does that send to other UFC fighters, that Randy took on the beast and won? The UFC needs to send the message that Randy would have been better off simply fulfilling his original contract, which would require Randy to fight Fedor under terms he almost certainly wouldn't accept. Randy tied up in legal limbo may be the best option right now, from the UFC's perspective.

Fourth is Fedor and his management's unwillingness to sign a long-term contract that isn't riddled with co-promoting nonsense. Even if the UFC can wheedle him into signing a four-fight deal (doubtful) he could easily bolt afterward and cause the UFC more headaches, as he would possibly leave as the UFC HW champion and a superstar in the US. They may not want to take the risk. If need be, the UFC can wait him out for another top HW fighter to reach the top, a fighter who may be more willing to tie his name to the UFC for the rest of his career.

The primary reason to hold the fight in the UFC is the risk of it being held in another promotion and vaulting them to national profitability. But as mentioned earlier, the fight loses value almost on a daily basis. A year from now, there may be no upstart promotion willing to take the certain loss on that fight. Strikeforce doesn't need it, and EliteXC and Affliction may have already either shut their doors, or reached profitability on their own. If Fedor/Randy declines to simply a standard "big fight" it will never happen under the terms Randy wants. And with the UFC keeping Randy in court, they can afford to wait to see if they can keep him busy long enough for the fight to lose its lustre.

In sum, Randy/Fedor is too dangerous for the UFC to hold under anywhere near the terms Randy's pride and Fedor's pride demand, and by the time it could be held anywhere else, it won't matter anymore. Randy will move on in his movie career, and Fedor will continue to be a star in Japan and Russia, and we will have all missed out on a fight we should have already seen.

(My first fanpost, hope you like!)