
Midwestside
Apr 07, 2008 Nov 07, 2009 2 279
a fan of
St. Louis Cardinals
Detroit Pistons
St. Louis Rams
Charles Norris
RSSUser Blog
(Im)Patience at the Plate
As I've been watching this team so far this young season, I have been frustrated by the apparent lack of discipline they've been exhibiting at the plate. Many times they seem to be swinging early in the count, swinging at balls, and getting themselves out against mediocre pitchers and mediocre pitches. Of course, it is often the case that perception and reality are very different. I decided to take a look at the raw numbers, specifically, pitches per plate appearance, to see if my perception was reality. Here is what I came up with. I do not know how to insert a spreadsheet, so for brevity's sake (and my own) I will only include NL teams.
Team Pitches/PA
Rockies 4.00
Dodgers 3.98
Brewers 3.98
Cubs 3.97
Marlins 3.96
Nationals 3.91
Phillies 3.91
Mets 3.89
Reds 3.86
D'backs 3.85
Pirates 3.84
Padres 3.82
Astros 3.71
Giants 3.64
Cardinals 3.61
Braves 3.59
This is course a very crude and rudimentary way to analyze patience, but I have only crude and rudimentary statistical knowledge. You will notice that the Cards have the second lowest in all of baseball, no AL team is lower than them. The Rockies are tops with 4 pitches per PA, followed by the NL's best offense in LA. The Brewers and Cubs are also near the top.
Now, the Cardinals have scored more runs this season than either of those Central rivals, and only 3 less than the Rockies. However, in the first 10 games, they scored a massive 58 runs, or 5.8 a game. Since then, they have scored 122 runs in 26 games, or about 4.7 a game, over a run less a game. In May, they've scored 49 runs in 14 games, or 3.5 a game, about another run less. I bring this up because I believe it's tied into the same reason the Cardinals have been showing so little patience at the plate: their injuries have forced them to play younger guys, guys who probably should not now, if ever, be in the Majors. Let's see if that assumption is also true. Here are the Pitches/PA for the Cards, from most to least pitches/PA.
Duncan 3.89
Ludwick 3.83
K. Greene 3.82
Robinson 3.81
Pujols 3.73
Thurston 3.70
Schumaker 3.65
Molina 3.62
Rasmus 3.58
Barden 3.52
T. Greene 3.41
Ankiel 3.41
Freese 3.41
Ryan 3.40
LaRue 2.81
So, they have one rookie, not counting Thurston, above the team average, and 4 below it. Again, we are just measuring patience, as Barden and Rasmus have definitely been assets on offense. Leading the squad are Duncan, Ludwick and Khalil, then Robinson (small sample size alert) and then Pujols.
Looking strictly at Pujols' stats, you would assume his PAs would consume a lot more of the opposing pitcher's time, but there are a few reasons he does not, and in it are a few cavaets for this discussion. If Pujols ever gets a ball to hit, chances are he's not going to pass it up. So, if the first pitch is a meatball, he's swinging. At the same time, with so many bats out of the lineup, he probably feels some pressure to produce. Thus, swinging at bad pitches, pitches out of the strike zone, etc. Swinging at those pitches usually leads to a short at-bat, with a bad outcome. Also, if a pitcher is planning on pitching around Pujols, the PA will probably not last more than 4 pitches, not doing a lot to elevate his P/PA.
So what does this tell us? Well, really, all it tells us is that the Cardinals' PAs are shorter than any team in the Majors, save the Braves, another young team. It has no direct correlation to their offensive capabilities. However, I will argue that it is a weakness in the Cards' offense. Certainly, if the Cards have been getting pitches to hit early in the count, they would be mistaken to pass them up. What it really does, I think, is allow pitchers to get by with mediocre pitches at the corners, or out of, but near, the zone. It allows pitchers to go deeper into games than they otherwise would. It prevents the Cards from seeing a pitcher's full repertoire as early as they might. Basically, it gives opposing pitchers confidence and takes away confidence and information from the Cardinals' hitters. It worries me that some of the younger guys that are having success without taking a lot of pitches, like Barden, are going to be slower to adjust when the pitchers catch up with them. Basically, it tells me that things are going to get worse before they get better. I just hope that either they will change their approach, or I will be proven wrong. Either way, for now, it's very frustrating to watch.
15 comments | 2 recs
Phillies and Baseball Lose a Treasure
I just wanted to announce to Cards fans that may not have heard yet, that Phillies Broadcaster Harry Kalas had passed away at the age of 73. I am a die-hard Cards fan, but have been living in the Philly area for the last year, and have grown to love Kalas' distinctive voice and style. If you haven't heard him, go to youtube or The Good Phight's SN blog. He was indeed a treasure to all of baseball, his love for the game and the Phillies manifest with every word. He was never critical of either side during a game, and was gracious to the Phillies' opponents while always clearly being behind his beloved Phils. It seems that tragedies in baseball can never come alone, and while the tragic death of a young man leaves more to be lamented than the death of one who has made his mark on history, it can be just as painful, if not more so, as it's like a blanket you've grown to love being yanked suddenly from you, or a beloved neighbor moving away in the dead of night. In Adenhart, we mourn because we will never know what we lost, or what might have been. In Kalas, we mourn because we know exactly what was taken from us, and what will never return. Please show the Phillies fans some sympathy, although they have a bad reputation, having lived here, they are good, though misunderstood, fans. Thank you.
12 comments | 2 recs
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