SB Nation User Blog: Mike Fagan

The Week in Quotes, November 22nd - 28th

Mike Fagan — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 21:42:00 -0000

BLUE BALLS

"The game plan was to take Mirko apart. One piece at a time." - Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion Alistair Overeem, on his bout with former Pride OWGP Champion Mirko Filipovic. Their anticipated rematch has been put on hold by K-1. (FiveOuncesofPain.com)

"I’m 100% sure I would have finished him if the fight wasn’t called off." - Overeem, the fight had been called off after Filipovic wasn't able to continue as a result of two knees to the groin.

"I think he knew he was losing and took the easy way out." - Overeem

"I don’t want the public to think that I’m afraid of him." - Filipovic (Free Fight Videos)

"If he doesn’t believe I don’t get to choose my opponent and that maybe Dream doesn’t want us to fight on New Year's then he can come to Zagreb next weekend and we can fight in my cage with neutral referees." - Filipovic

"Should he not show up I urge him to stop calling me out until the rematch happens. He has an opportunity to stand behind his words. We’ll fight for honor." - Filipovic, hopefully Overeem calls Mirko's bluff.

ULTIMATE BUILDUP

"We always try to make the last show of the year...the big one." - UFC President Dana White, hyping up UFC 92. (UFC 92 Preview)

"There's gonna be no more gimme fights because everyone in the weight class is a beast." - UFC Light Heavyweight contender Rashad Evans

"I remember looking at my wife and telling her, 'I don't have it no more. [With] these injuries, there's just no way.'" - Former UFC Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir, on his attempted comeback after a devastating motorcycle accident.

"My wife, in so many words, called me a pussy, a failure as a man, and a bad example to my children." - Mir, whose wife sounds delightful.

"He's like a zombie, he's like Frankenstein. Every time you kill him, the mother fucker rises again." Mir, on UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

"It can be my mom in that ring, and I'll go ahead and break her arm." - Mir, invoking a popular poker analogy.

"I really don't remember the fight because I won't watch it." - Quinton Jackson, referring to the second fight with Wanderlei Silva which ended with him resting on the middle rope.

"All I can remember is that I was winning the fight, and then I got knocked the hell out." - Jackson

"I know he remembers my knee." - Silva

"Wanderlei knows I'm a better fighter than him. Wanderlei's not the golden boy anymore." - Jackson, referring to the alleged special treatment Silva received as Pride's posterboy

"I'm excited for this match because I don't like him." - Silva, making me almost as excited for the buildup to the fight as the fight itself.

THEY TOOK HIS TRUCK KEYS AWAY, TOO

"I can finally feel the energy from taking supplements and eating right." - Quinton Jackson, on his improved training. (Throwdown TV)

"I looked at the fights that I had with him years ago, and I was pretty ashamed of myself." - Jackson, I thought he said he won't watch the Silva fights?

"How did I even make it to the finals in that tournament to fight him?" - Jackson

"It's the most focused I've been ever in my career." - Jackson

ABC, KNEES, AND DRUG TESTING

"Now that there are rules from different organizations and states, it can be confusing for younger fighters." - Pat Miletich, no offense, but if fighters don't know what rules they're fighting under, they should consider another profession. (Sherdog)

"Hardcore fans want knees to head on the ground, and I can tell you it’s not going to happen." - Deputy Attorney for the New Jersey State Athletic Control Board Nick Lembo

"One of main reasons it’s not going to happen is because the industry itself doesn’t want it." - Lembo, referring to fighters, managers, etc.

"I like the Pride rules." - Quinton Jackson

"I've cancelled all drug testing across the board while I revamp the entire process from start to finish. I expect the new and improved program to roll out next week." - California State Athletic Commission Assistant Executive Officer Bil Douglas (MMA Weekly)

I AM LEGEND

"If you ask somebody ‘Who is the best pound for pound in the world’ a lot of people agree and say it’s B.J. Penn." - UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre, on why he wants the rematch with UFC Lightweight Champion B.J. Penn (FiveOuncesofPain.com)

"I want to fight to become a legend in the sport." - St. Pierre, might want to set the bar a litlte higher.

"We’re going to fight each other, we’re both in our prime, and it’s going to be a great fight." - St. Pierre, describing what may be the first real Superfight in MMA.

"I like those kinds of fighters, like Tito and Phil Baroni. But that isn’t me." - St. Pierre, responding to a question about how to hype up the fight.

DINNER WITH THE MUSCLE SHARK

"That’s definitely music to my ears." - Former UFC Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk, on former CSAC head Armando Garcia leaving his post (FiveOuncesofPain.com)

"What I do remember about it — and again, I’m not real familiar with the contract, as I haven’t read it in detail yet — but I do know we can sell sponsorship spots on there. So they are going to allow us to sell hats, shorts, shirts, and patches and with that being said, you could very easily make $100,000 off something like that." - Sherk, adding an interesting twist to the video game shenanigans.

"To be honest with you, if you’re going to be gone 13, 14, or 15 months, I think you should relinquish the belt." - Sherk, then why were you complaining when the UFC stripped you last year?

PARTING SHOTS

"Big, mean, bearded street fighter, an Internet You Tube sensation, gets a crack at a title in a hugely hyped mixed martial arts bout after only three pro fights, faces a last-minute replacement and -- of course -- has his big, mean, bearded head handed to him 14 seconds later. Snorrrrre." - Some asshat at Sports Illustrated, a rag that apparently bypasses fact checking these days (SI.com)

"Yes, and I do see myself defeating Brock Lesnar." - Alistair Overeem

"This is not a fighter I will defeat if I am taking shortcuts in training." - WAMMA Heavyweight Champion Fedor Emelianenko, on canceling his press tour to focus on his fight with former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski (FightLinker)

"It's in my plans, it's one of my personal projects." - UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva, reigniting the flames of his boxing future (Fighters Only)

"Suddenly Miguel Torres is God." - Jeff Curran, correct.

What I Want for MMA in 2009

Mike Fagan — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 23:46:31 -0000

Thanksgiving marks the start towards the final push towards Christmas and the New Year. In my family Thanksgiving doubles as the deadline to get my Christmas list in to my grandmother. So with that in mind, here's five things I hope to see in the MMA universe this coming year.

1. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Brock Lesnar - OK, so this one may already be wrapped up in a nice little bow for me, but I think this could be an absolutely epic heavyweight matchup. Can Nogueira, known for his ability to withstand sustained punishment, outlast the 275 pound monster and lock on one of his famed submissions? How far has Brock Lesnar progressed on the ground? It's the wily vet up against the explosive, powerful newcomer in a fight with layers of stories.

2. The UFC on network TV - I agree with Dana White that the UFC shouldn't enter into a network TV contract if it doesn't fit their needs. The company is quite healthy enough with the Spike/PPV model. Still, as a fan, having the sport's biggest company on the biggest national stage will be a monumental event. A network deal, in my opinion, would cement the sport's ascension into the mainstream.

3. Female MMA in the UFC - With the news that Dana White changed his mind and would considering putting on female fights in the Zuffa-controlled WEC, it's only increased my hunger to see women fighting on the big show. Gina Carano and others have the opportunity to become huge stars if given the opportunity. And unlike most sports, a woman's fight has every bit the potential to be as exciting as their male counterparts.

4. Anderson Silva in meaningful fights - I know he has to defend his title. I know he wants to fight every two or three months. And I know Yushin Okami injured himself training for a potential bout with Silva. That said, I don't want to see him fighting the James Irvins and Patrick Cotes of the world in 2008. Have him fight Mike Bisping, bring in Matt Lindland, or move him up to 205 for good. Just make sure he's being put into high-profile, big money fights in 2009.

5. A healthy Japanese MMA scene - Dream and World Victory Road have both put on increasingly entertaining shows in 2008, but recently we've only heard doom and gloom stories about the status of Japanese's twin MMA heads. WVR needs the financial backing of Japanese conglomerate Don Quijote, who may or may not pull out of their deal. Dream, an extension of K-1's former Hero's show, has been plagued by poor television ratings. With the graveyward of American MMA promotions growing every month, it's important that fighters outside of the UFC have a place to make money even if it's across the waters.

FightLines: Heavyweights Vol. III

Mike Fagan — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 22:23:45 -0000

Barnett <> Nogueira
Kharitonov <> Overeem
Hunt > Filipovic > Barnett > Hunt
Vera > Mir > Lesnar > Couture > Sylvia > Vera

FightLines FAQ
FightLines: Heavyweights Vol. I
FightLines: Heavyweights Vol. II

FightLines Extrapolated Power Rankings:

	Name	RatingPLUS
1	Fedor Emelianenko	1.856
1	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira	1.856
3	Tim Sylvia	1.619
4	Andrei Arlovski	1.496
5	Josh Barnett	1.326
6	Cain Velasquez	1.205
7	Brock Lesnar	1.117
7	Randy Couture	1.117
9	Ben Rothwell	0.549
10	Aleksander Emelianenko	0.469

Explanation and analysis of the graph, plus an addition to the power rankings formula after the break.

The MMA world better watch out for Fedor Emelianenko and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. These two guys might be pretty good.

The top 10 list looks A LOT more believable this month as a result of a minor tweak (that I will discuss at the end). Suffice it to say, subjectively, I might move Lesnar up and Velasquez down (or removed), but otherwise, I think the system fares pretty well for itself here.

Junior dos Santos, fresh off his surpsing KO upset of BJJ wizard Fabricio Werdum, will probably end up on the graph's next incarnation. The last meta-rankings didn't have him ranked, and he didn't fight anyone outside of Werdum in the top 25. I haven't peeked around a lot, but I know Sherdog has him at number ten currently, which I disagree with. KOing a top ten guy without any other wins of significance shouldn't vault him over guys like Gabriel Gonzaga, Ben Rothwell, or even Aleksander Emelianenko and Roy Nelson.

A ranking list should have a champion (whether he or she be crowned or just the de facto number one guy or lady) and a pecking order of challengers underneath him. If Dana White had control over every fighter in the world and offered to let you match up Fedor with either Gonzaga or dos Santos, which would be the more compelling fight to you?

As for the graph itself, we've gotten away from the visual separation of UFC and non-UFC guys, with fighters like Tim Sylvia, Mirko Filipovic and Werdum bridging the gaps. While the meat of the graph has changed, the top has not. Emelianenko and Nogueira share not only the same score, but the exact same beatwins and beatlosses. While a third fight might not prove any different than the first two (excluding the no contest), it would still be relevant. Unless Brock Lesnar usurps Nogueira, we might have a disputed heavyweight champion under the FightLines system for quite awhile.

Emelianenko's fight with Andrei Arlovski brings together some great matchmaking and what could be an interesting fight. An Arlovski win wouldn't have the same nuclear holocaust effect Forrest Griffin's victory over Quinton Jackson would, but it would certainly alter the landscape of the heavyweight division. Nogueira would sneak into the number one spot, and Emelianenko would be left only with his wins over Zuluzinho and Mark Hunt. Which, I believe, would drop him significantly in the FightLines system (which rewards consistent activity).

Power Rankings Explanation

I added in a component that penalizes a fighter for losing to someone not represented on the graph. For instance, it's unfair for Werdum to go unpunished as a result of the exclusive nature of the selection process. With that in mind, here's the updated formula:

RatingPLUS = (((Bwins -Bloss) / (Bwins + Bloss + Aloss) + 1) / 2) + ((Bwins/Fighters) - (Bloss/Fighters * 2)) + (NSloss * M)

Key

Bwins - Beatwins, the number of fighters an individual has paths to below them on the FightLines graph

Bloss - Beatlosses, the number of fighters an individual has paths to above them on the FightLines graph

Aloss - Ambiguous Losses, losses that have been looped out that leave the two fighters involved without a path to each other

Fighters - Total Fighters, the number of fighters on the graph minus the fighter in question

NSloss - Non-system Losses, losses to fighters who aren't represented in the system

M - Multiplier, currently the raw rating of the bottom-most fighter in the system which is always a negative number (subject to change)

The Week in Quotes, November 15th - 21st

Mike Fagan — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 02:15:01 -0000

IT'S A SHOW ABOUT NOTHING

"It had to do with Dana (White) calling my managers and immediately saying, 'we need to get him to sign this contract' and 'it's a big favor to me.' Then we asked him, 'Why do you need this contract signed?'" - UFC Welterweight Jon Fitch, explaining how the Dana White/AKA battle started (MMA Weekly)

"Then we finally asked, after reading through the contract, why can't we negotiate for different terms? Because it asked me for a lifetime contract for the video games, so they would have exclusive rights to use our likeness for these video games and we couldn't go and do any other video games ever again in our lifetime." - Fitch

"So basically we said we weren't cool with that deal and why can't we do it for five or 10 years? Why does it have to be a lifetime deal? Their next response was, 'either you guys are in or you're out' and 'sign this or you're going to get dropped from the UFC.'" - Fitch

"Within two phone calls, it got to 'sign this or you guys are out.'" - Fitch

"It’s over a lot of different things." - UFC President Dana White, giving his side of the story (Fiveouncesofpain.com)

"It’s not one specific fighter or one specific thing. It’s about a lot of different things with a lot of these fighters." - White

"You come in, you do your job with your company and you get paid." - White

"I’m the perfect example of what a UFC fighter should be; someone who goes out there and lays it on the line (and) fights their ass off." - Fitch, who definitely has been one of the guys who "comes in and does his job."

"I am the UFC's bastard son." - Fitch, with one of the more interesting comments throughout this ordeal.

"Do you think tomorrow ... the Jon Fitch clothing line is going to come out, or the new swimwear by Jon Fitch, or the new Jon Fitch this or that? Do you think any of that's coming out tomorrow?" - White (USA Today)

"Are people not going to buy the video game because Cain Velasquez, Josh Koscheck or Jon Fitch aren't in the video game? No." - White

"Every guy, even big stars — there's no huge stars coming out of AKA — every huge star that is in the UFC has given us their video game rights." - White, doing a great job promoting his fighters.

"This is not an attack on Jon Fitch." - White, disregard the above quotes.

“It’s 100 percent personal." - Fitch

"A lot of these guys that he says he doesn’t have a problem with are guys that got special contracts along the way." - Fitch

"This is seriously how they're trying to treat fighters? Especially me?" - Fitch

"We have chosen not to do business with this camp called AKA. These guys have never, ever, ever treated us like partners." - White

"They are trying to break Zinkin Entertainment and get us to jump off a ship." - Fitch

"You've got morons — morons — that are running these fighters' lives." - White

"They're negotiating like they've got Mel Gibson and this thing is the biggest movie ever being made." - White

"The reality is, we're not even sanctioned in Massachusetts or New York ... (and) we're going into all these different countries trying to do these different things. And I've got these guys that basically don't want to be partners with me." - White, can someone explain to me what Dana's business with sanctioning has to do with negotiations with his fighters?

"But if Fitch called me today, if Fitch called me right now and said, "Dana, listen, I don't know what happened with my managers ... but I want to work this out with you," I'd work it out with Fitch in two seconds." - White, you know, if Fitch just entered into negotiations without any sort of legal knowledge, you know, so I could take advantage of him, we'd be cool.

"I've had a problem with DeWayne Zinkin since Day One. This guy is an absolute — Chuck Liddell basically had to tell him, 'Butt out of my business. You handle my sponsorships, I'll handle my business with the UFC.'" - White

“He tries to blame this and put this off on management but my management was telling me to sign this video game deal. But out of principle, I didn’t. It’s on me, not on my management.” - Fitch

"Do you know how much Jon Fitch made for the Georges St. Pierre fight? Where the hell else could Jon Fitch go right now and make the money he made? He made $169,000 for that night for that fight. Where’s he going to make that kind of money in one night?" - White, again, someone explain to me what this has to do with these negotiations?

"Shut up! Shut up. Every one of you shut your mouth. Mind your business." - White, on the media's role in all this.

"It was never even about the agreement or the contract. It was the approach we felt that Dana (White) was a little hot-headed and threatening us right off the bat. It didn't seem like a professional way to do things." - Fitch (MMA Rated)

HOME (AND A CAGE) IS WHERE THE HEART IS

"It feels good." - Pioneer referee John McCarthy, on returning to officiated duties at Strikeforce: "Destruction." (MMA Junkie)

"Two weeks after I was gone, I was like, 'Oh, God. I miss it.'" - McCarthy

"As long as the athletic commission gives it to me, I don't care where it is." - McCarthy, a subtle clue about a return to the UFC Octagon.

AFFLICTION, NOW OFFENDING SOCCER MOMS

"As a Catholic and a Christian, it was offensive all the way around. We consider her holy." - Judy Carbo, who complained about a shirt depicting baby Jesus with a skeleton which prompted Nordstrom to remove the shirts from their racks. (News Press)

"If you were Jewish, you wouldn't want to see a swastika on a shirt. If you were African-American, you wouldn't want to see anything that was derogatory towards you." - Carbo, really making an ass out of herself with the second sentence.

A COUPLE OF DENIALS

"For the record....I didn't rape anyone." - Human Weapon host Jason Chambers (The Underground)

“I am disappointed that the Commission chose to bring this case based upon its Enforcement staff’s win-at-any-cost ambitions. The staff’s process was result-oriented, facts be damned. The government’s claims are false and they will be proven to be so.” - HDNet President Mark Cuban (Sherdog)

BROCK LESNAR ISN'T THE FIRST BIG PRO WRESTLING STAR IN MMA

"I don't like someone like him. There's nothing I like about him." - MMA legend Kazushi Sakuraba, referring to Kiyoshi Tamura. The two share a storied past. (MMA Fighting)

"I actually wasn't expecting him to take the fight." - Sakuraba, Tamura has turned down the fight multiple times.

"I seriously want to fight without gloves because recent MMA fights are not as exciting as before and have resembled sports entertainment." - Sakuraba, if you didn't think he was badass before this, I think this changes your mind.

"I also requested to fight without a time limit. That was a joke." - Sakuraba, who I hope doesn't need more than 10 minutes to beat Tamura.

"I want to knock him out badly." - Sakuraba, please do.

THERE'S ONLY OOOONE RICKY HATTON, OOOONE RICKY HATTON

"Brock's a big bloke, isn't he? If you found him in bed with your girlfriend you'd tuck him in!" - Ricky Hatton, that or be forced to video tape it while crying in the corner (The Sun)

"The presentation really is first class." - Hatton, who was in attendance for UFC 91.

"I totally understand him wanting to fight GSP again. It's exactly how I feel wanting to fight Floyd Mayweather Jr again." - Hatton, who met up with B.J. Penn at the event.

"I've trained at the UFC gym for a couple of fights and the UFC have always been great to me." - Hatton

OK, MAYBE WE WERE JUST TEASING WITH THAT WHOLE "RETIREMENT" THING

"At the end of the day, man, when gets to 35, he could feel like he has a few more fights in him." - Anderson Silva's manager Ed Soares (MMA Junkie)

"Of course -- and for people to go buy those pay per views now." - Soares, not so jokingly.

"Anderson just wants to put on history-making fights." - Soares, it's a good thing Dana White got the big Patrick Cote fight out of the way.

WE ARE LIVE FROM THE SOLD OUT MADISON SQUARE GARDEN

“It’s a historical thing." - UFC legend Randy Couture, on MMA's regulation in New York. (NY Post)

"To say I fought in the same place as Joe Louis or Muhammad Ali would be a dream come true.” - Couture

WHITE NOISE

"We don't need help from anybody" - Dana White, on network television deals. (Yahoo)

"I'm happy as hell to be on SpikeTV, be there forever. I could care less." - White, who couldn't care less, for what it's worth.

"This fight should have been in Toronto or Hawaii." - White, discussing the big B.J. Penn/Georges St. Pierre fight at UFC 94.

"I’m attacking Canada. I’m going to spend so much time in Canada I’ll have to buy a house. I’m going to live here until it’s done. I’m going to be sitting on the porch every day they come to work." - White

"We finally get some regulations and they slap this huge tax on us that's out of control, so probably never." - White, on why the UFC won't bring the fight to Hawaii. (Star Bulletin)

"Gina Carano is a star, and I think she's talented." - White, finally coming around on the female MMA thing. (MMA Junkie)

"And if I did do it, I'd probably do it in the WEC." - White, well, at least he's willing to put it on somewhere.

"When they’re out there chasing (and) trying to start all of these different businesses and spin off all this stuff, it’s too much." - White, commenting on fighters who get into extra-curricular activities. He might want to take his own advice from time to time. (Fiveouncesofpain.com)

PARTING SHOTS

"It's coming close to the holidays. I've got a mortgage. I've got kids. I needed that payday before the end of the year." - Former UFC and EXC Middleweight Scott Smith, on taking a fight with Terry Martin on short notice. (MMA Junkie)

"Today I consider myself a free agent." - EliteXC Welterweight Champion Jake Shields, who's 30 day breach of contract challenge is up. (MMA Junkie)

"I'm taking all these crazy meetings in Los Angeles. I want to take advantage of these opportunities before -- it's not like I'm some spring chicken, you know." - Strikeforce Middleweight Champion Cung Le, right, so get in the fucking cage. (MMA Junkie)

"I'd love to see the rematch." - Kim Couture, who obviously has a death wish for her husband. (Yahoo)

"The only satisfaction I get is that both young men are alive and healthy. I don't need any praise. I simply did what anyone one would have done in that situation." - Goran Reljic, who saved two kids this week. (Fight Ticker)

"I was kind of hoping that his pride would make him stand up and I think that’s what did it." - WEC featherweight Leonard Garcia, on his first round KO of Jens Pulver (Fiveouncesofpain.com)

"I guess inexperience has gotten me this far." - New UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar (MMA Junkie)

"If you're playing a video game, he's like the last dragon you have to beat, but like a really, really big dragon." - UFC color commentator Joe Rogan, hyping up Lesnar prior to his fight with Randy Couture (Yahoo)

Will Jon Fitch Open the Flood-gates?

Mike Fagan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 10:24:17 -0000

In October of 1969, the St. Louis Cardinals traded a dependable, veteran centerfielder by the name of Curt Flood to the Philadelphia Phillies. Flood, upset at being traded to a cellar dwelling team playing in a run down stadium in front of a borderline racist crowd, refused to report to his new team. Instead, on Christmas Eve of 1969, Flood challenged Major League Baseball's reserve clause and demanded baseball declare him a free agent. Flood ultimately lost the case, but set in motion the change necessary to bring about free agency for players.

Strictly speaking economically, one understands why events unfolded as they have between ZuffA LLC., Dana White, and Jon Fitch. The UFC does not lose much from dropping a fighter like Fitch. Joe Six Pack and John Pepperoni will still buy their UFC pay-per-view each month for $49.95. Fitch, meanwhile, feels that UFC pay and exposure don't make up what he loses in giving away his likeness and name rights to Zuffa and feels he can make a comfortable living fighting elsewhere. Hence, Jon Fitch no longer is employed by Zuffa LLC.

What upsets me about this deal is that Jon Fitch was released for reasons entirely unrelated to his performance as a fighter. Dana White harps daily about how far MMA has come to be seen as a legitimate sports enterprise. Yet, how does dropping Jon Fitch, a consensus top 5 welterweight, and threatening his campmates (including another top 5 welterweight in Josh Koscheck and one of the most highly touted heavyweight prospects in Cain Velasquez) further that claim? White and Zuffa love to boast about putting on the best fights between the world's greatest fighters, but in the past year we have seen Tim Sylvia, Mirko Cro Cop, Fabricio Werdum, Randy Couture, Andrei Arlovski, and now Jon Fitch all leave the company. That's just a list of fighters Zuffa voluntarily let go, without taking into consideration the vast amount of fighters the company has refused to bring in.

In addition, if releasing Fitch strictly revolves around his refusal to sign away his name and likeness rights, why not simply remove him from the UFC video game? I have a hard time imagining Fitch's disappearance from the game causing any dropoff in sales, let alone significant ones. At the same time, you still punish Fitch - who loses out on a prime exposure opportunity - while still having the ability to utilize him in his main role as an athlete.

Jon Fitch will likely fare better than Curt Flood. Flood, after being traded from the Phillies to the Washington Senators in 1971, played in only 13 more games before retiring for good. Fitch will find work in other organization, whether at home or abroad, and will probably make good money doing it. The parallels of two veteran athletes at rougly similar ages being essentially blackballed from the primary organizations of their sport remain for one to ponder. Will we look back in ten years at this story as the moment labor relations became a serious issue in MMA?

Welcome Your New Heavyweight UFC Overlord: Brock Lesnar

Mike Fagan — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 11:23:43 -0000

Brock Lesnar is the UFC Heavyweight Champion.

Let that sink in a second.

One almost tastes a hint of Pride in the aftermath of UFC 91. There's a pro wrestler, an aging legend, and 50 pounds of weight difference. Yet with a backdrop that screamed "freakshow," we were treated to a legitimate fight for a share of the heavyweight crown.

Whether it be the nature of Brock's former profession or his short fight record entering the fight, rumblings prior to the fight shot through the MMA universe that a Lesnar win hurts the sport of MMA. This couldn't be any further from the truth. Fact is, Brock Lesnar will be the best thing for American MMA since Forrest Griffin and Stephan Bonnar fought live on Spike TV three years ago.

B.J. Penn put it best in a recent interview for Vegas sports radio. Brock Lesnar brings more fans to the sport and consequently puts more money in B.J.'s pocket. His pro wrestling past helps, but I think that's also overlooking the fact that he's a 6'3", 275 pound beast who moves like a gazelle. American combat sports have been missing athletes of this caliber because they usually pick up a football in high school. Fortunately for us, this South Dakota farmboy put on a wrestling singlet.

Whether or not Lesnar even deserved to be given the opportunity is now moot. He dominated his UFC debut before an unfortunate standup and subsequent submission to Frank Mir. He controlled the veteran and game Heath Herring for three brutal rounds. And now he's finished a legend of the sport without controversey and in convincing fashion.

I'm extremely interested to watch Lesnar's career unfold from here. A fighter usually doesn't have much room to grow after winning the most prestigious title in the sport. Yet, we have an extremely raw phenom at the top of the proverbial hill. Brock Lesnar has arrived, and I believe we've only seen the beginning. I, for one, bow down to our new heavyweight overlord.

The Week in Quotes, November 8th - 14th

Mike Fagan — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 21:08:16 -0000

IS THERE SOME SORT OF FIGHT THIS WEEK?

"I'm at peace with my life." - Brock Lesnar, on entering his fight with Randy Couture tonight at UFC 91. (MMA Junkie)

"I can't really say much to it because we're in a little too deep now, aren't we? This is a once in a life opportunity for me, and anybody that would be in my position would never have turned this fight down." - Lesnar, on whether or not he deserves the fight.

"I've headlined many pay-per-views. This will just be another one." - Lesnar

"I think he's going to outweigh me by about 35 pounds, so those are things that I've trained and prepared to deal with." - Couture, the actual number is around 50 pounds. (MMA Junkie)

"Sparring in the gym -- the training we do -- it's just about as real as the fights." - Couture

"There are similarities in that it's hard to find guys that are going to simulate Brock or a guy like Tim." - Couture, who borrowed a couple of gorillas from the Las Vegas Zoo to train with.

"I certainly wouldn't like going against a guy 50 pounds bigger than me, but Randy is a smart fighter." - Lesnar (Las Vegas Review-Journal)

"I'm not just blowing smoke. I know how to wrestle." - Lesnar, who isn't speaking of the professional variety.

"By the looks of it, Randy looks like he took a year off." - Lesnar (Yahoo)

"How would he know? Where's he seen me?" - Couture (Yahoo)

"I think in a lot of ways that brash kind of bravado is covering up a little of the insecurities that he's carrying into this fight because he knows he doesn't have all the skills that he needs." - Couture

"I hope he brings everything, including the kitchen sink." - Lesnar

MORE FROM THE NATURAL

"My first UFC we did the weigh-ins at the Holiday Inn in Augusta, Georgia." - Couture, discussing how far the UFC has come in its 15 years of existence. (Yahoo)

"I'm not worried about Fedor." - Couture, after leaving the company over the Emelianenko fight, now has no care in the matter? (MMA Junkie)

FROM THE MOUTHS OF BABES

"I see no way Randy can win. He’s too old, too small and [had] too long of a layoff. Lesnar is too massive, athletic and younger. That being said, I think Randy wins." - Chris Lytle, summing up the position of all those never picking against Randy types. (Sherdog)

"I think Randy wins this fight with experience and overall ability. It seems like Lesnar’s best chance of winning is if he can hold someone [down] for three rounds like he did to [Heath] Herring. I don’t think he can do that to Randy. Plus, he has a giant penis tattooed on his chest, which can’t be helpful." - Ultimate Fighter winner Mac Danzig, reminding me of an aspect of the fight I forgot to take into consideration for my gambling analysis.

"Randy Couture will win because he is Randy Couture." - Couture trainer Shawn Tompkins. Shawn Tompkins makes stupid remarks because he is Shawn Tompkins. Circular logic for the win.

"I think Randy’s got his hands full. Most fight fans don’t want to give Lesnar his props because they see him as a WWE guy. Not me. I see a college wrestling national champ, a big one, a really big one. I trained with a national champ in Ben Askren, and he played with me like Michael Jackson does an 8-year-old. But with Randy’s experience, he will prepare with the right people, and [it] will be easier for him to prepare for Lesnar than it would be for Lesnar to prepare for Randy. I’m just not sure it’ll be enough. I’m gonna go with Lesnar." - Din Thomas, sneaking a Michael Jackson joke into his fight picks.

"Randy recovers an early F-5 to TKO Brock [in the] third." - Zac George

"I’ll bet 25 percent of Paulo [Filho]’s purse on 'The Natural.'" - Chael Sonnen, well said, sir. Well said.

THE PRODIGAL SON SPOUTS OFF

"After I win this fight on January 31st, I should be the best, pound-for-pound." - UFC Lightweight Champion B.J. Penn, giving his opinion on pound-for-pound rankings (ESPN 1100)

"It's not the Ultimate Takedown Championship." - Penn, ragging on GSP's method of victory in their first fight.

"My forehead's still the same size." - Penn, talking some steroids.

"You never get tired kicking someone's ass." - Penn, on gassing out.

WHITE NOISE

"That's how I lost my hair. I had a pretty good head of hair when we started this thing. I thought we were going out of business every weekend." - UFC President Dana White, on building up the UFC. (Yahoo)

"He's (done) nothing. He's set us back. The fact that he was on the cover of ESPN the Magazine makes me ill." - White, on ESPN's brief love affair with Kimbo Slice.(Yahoo)

"This fight is going to be amazing, and the winner of this fight will face B.J. Penn for the lightweight title after B.J. fights Georges St. Pierre." - White, who just asks that you don't get Fabricio Werdum's opinion on "guaranteed title shots." (MMA Junkie)

PARTING SHOTS

"[Lesnar] might be wider, but Tim (Sylvia) weighed the same that he weighs." - Kim Couture, fortunately not making her living as a fight analyst. (MMA Junkie)

"I'm surprised by the news." - Fabricio Werdum, on his release from the UFC. Apparently, no one told him. (Tatame)

"Once I’m in the UFC, my first adversary will be Anderson Silva." - Chael Sonnen, dead man walking. (Gracie Mag)

Gambling Spotlight: UFC 91

Mike Fagan — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 02:44:29 -0000

It's been over twelve months since we've had the opportunity to bet against Randy Couture. Fortunately, we only have a little over 48 hours to wait before we get to find out if "the Natural" still has it or if Brock Lesnar plays the role of Father Time.

Randy Couture 3-time UFC Heavyweight Champ Consensus #7 Heavyweight	vs.	Brock Lesnar Consensus #16 Heavyweight
45	Age	31
6'1"	Height	6'3"
16-8	Record	2-1
7 / 2	TKO / SUB	0 / 1
W - Gonzaga (TKO) W - Sylvia (UD) L - Liddell (KO)	Last Three	W - Herring (UD) L - Mir (SUB) W - Kim (SUB)

Couture/Lesnar offers numerous talking points of interest. Is Randy over the hill? How will the year-plus layoff affect him? Can he scramble to his feet if/when he gets taken down? Can Brock go five rounds? Will he even have to? Does experience and intangibles overcome size, strength, and athleticism?

For as many uknowns that surround Lesnar, it should be safe to say that we know what his gameplan will look like. He should come out and try to do the exact same thing he did to Heath Herring. Threaten standing, shoot for the takedown, and then unleash patient ground and pound.

Couture, on the other hand, will probably attempt to bully Lesnar in the clinch with the ultimate goal of putting Brock on his back. While this should be his best method to victory, I don't believe he will have the same success he found in his most recent fights. Gabriel Gonzaga, in addition to lacking the wrestling credentials of Lesnar, has shown that he can be made to quit mentally. Tim Sylvia, posing his own interesting size problems, doesn't have near the athletcism of an elite wrestler and has a bodytype that just welcomes a Greco-Roman expert.

One of the best arguments in favor of Lesnar is the empirical evidence we have against Randy in the form of the Barnett and Rodriguez fights. It's fair to note that Randy was competitive in each fight, and both Barnett and Rodriguez, presumably, have a bit more to offer on their backs. Still, those fights show that Randy has problems when he faces bigger guys that can grapple. We've also witnessed Randy not having the best of abilities on his back, and I have little doubt that Brock will put him there at least a few times over the course of the fight.

All things considered, I do favor Brock here. He threw Heath Herring around like nothing, and Randy will be significantly smaller than Heath. Lesnar landed some absolutely atomic shots in that fight, and the fact that he didn't finish says more about Herring's gameness than Lesnar's finishing ability.

For all of Lesnar's shortcomings and inexperience, Randy has just as many question marks. He's 45, he hasn't fought in a year, and his usual strengths (speed, conditioning, wrestling) are all severely dampered with Lesnar.

I'd feel comfortable holding a Lesnar ticket up until -130, and can see there being some marginal value up to -150. I feel Randy has enough ways to approach this fight that make him a strong underdog. In the end, I believe we'll see a similar fight to Lesnar/Herring with a heightened chance of Brock finishing.

Kenny Florian Consensus #8 Lightweight	vs.	Joe Stevenson Consenus #12 Light Weight
32	Age	26
5'10"	Height	5'7"
10-3	Record	29-8
3 / 6	TKO / SUB	6 / 13
W - Huerta (UD) W - Lauzon (TKO) W - Thomas (SUB)	Last Three	W - Tibau (SUB) L - Penn (SUB) W - Pellegrino (UD)

At UFC 87, I picked against Kenny Florian in his fight with Roger Huerta. I thought Roger's forward, go-for-broke style had the potential to overwhelm Florian. Instead, Kenny came in with a smart, disciplined counter style and took a convincing three round decision.

Stevenson could be described as Huerta 2.0. He's a little better in most areas of MMA, a touch more disciplined, and a dash more passive. The biggest mark against Huerta entering UFC 87 was his propensity to sacrifice position while fighting aggressively. Stevenson fares better in the regard, though he will give up his back at times and ends up on bottom too often. He's usually able to make up for that with the constant threat of an effective guillotine choke. Florian, however, will be well aware of that and should avoid the submission.

Florian stands right around a -185 favorite. Needing a 65% break even rate, I don't see much value here. Take Florian if he hits -170, though.

Dustin Hazelett Consensus #22 Welterweight	vs.	Tamdan McCrory
22	Age	22
6'1"	Height	6'4"
11-4	Record	10-1
1 / 8	TKO / SUB	7 / 3
W - Burkman (SUB) L - Koscheck (TKO) W - Goulet (SUB)	Last Three	W - Cummo (UD) L - Gono (SUB) W - Spratt (SUB)

The Tamdan McCrory/Dustin Hazelett fight comes as close to a Mortal Kombat Mirror Match as you'll find in MMA. Both guys are tall and lanky, have ugly but effective standup, and use their height well. Both have also looked good in recent losses as McCrory's size gave Akihiro Gono fits and Hazelett arguably took round one before being finished by Josh Koscheck in the next frame.

I believe Hazelett, who has shown great improvement in every fight, will be the stronger, more physical fighter. He'll use that strength advantage to bully McCrory around the Octagon. Expect a lot of clinch work, with Hazelett dirty boxing to set up takedowns. Hit up Dustin for a unit here.

Gabriel Gonzaga Consensus #8 Heavyweight	vs.	Josh Hendricks
29	Age	32
6'0"	Height	6'2"
10-3	Record	15-4
4 / 6	TKO / SUB	4 / 10
W - McCully (SUB) L - Werdum (TKO) L - Couture (TKO)	Last Three	W - Bice (SUB) W - Powell (KO) W - Brown (D)

I can find zero video on Hendricks outside of a minute KO of some bum from a couple years ago. Suffice to say, I don't want to offer a play here. Still, I will say this. Gabriel Gonzaga has incredible talent. His jiu-jitsu is outstanding (especially at heavyweight) and he hits very very hard. Based on his build and his skills, he should be a top fighter.

Unfortunately, it's hard to get over his lack of mental game. Not only did he quit in the Couture and Werdum fights, but he abandoned a very easy strategy in the Werdum fight when he stopped attacking Werdum's lead leg. There's no reason Gonzaga shouldn't take this fight walking away, but with Hendricks coming out of a camp that has already beat Gonzaga once, it wouldn't shocked me if it happened again.

Demian Maia Consensus #16 Middleweight	vs.	Nate Quarry
31	Age	36
6'0"	Height	6'0"
8-0	Record	10-2
1 / 6	TKO / SUB	6 / 2
W - MacDonald (SUB) W - Herman (SUB) W - Jensen (SUB)	Last Three	W - Starnes (UD) W - Sell (KO) L - Franklin (KO)

Unlike Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg handing out the term like creepy guys in vans with candy, Demian Maia is "world-class" on the ground. Maia is a very dynamic jiu jitsu player who is constantly a threat if the fight hits the floor. Quarry, meanwhile, relies on the big power shot. He's slow and lumbering, and that was before back surgery.

Quarry might be able to defend Maia's takedowns, but I think Maia will be able to find a way to bring the fight to the floor. From there, it's more or less academic. Maia's good up to -250 here.

The Week in Quotes, November 1st - 7th

Mike Fagan — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 17:24:44 -0000

via msnbcmedia.msn.com

..AND DOWN GOES FABER!

"I'm a world-class fighter. I know that. I can compete with anybody." - WEC Featherweight Champion Mike Thomas Brown, before his fight with Urijah Faber (MMA Junkie)

"[Faber] makes a lot of mistakes in his fights. I've just got to capitalize when he makes them." - Brown, who capitalized on a sloppy elbow strike from Faber on his way to a win

"I don't have a lot of knockouts on my record, but I (expletive) hit hard." - Brown (Yahoo)

FILHO DOES GOOD JOB IMPERSONATING HERO, TYSON

"Filho's cornerman told us that they would walk across the cage and hand Chael the belt if he wins. When Chael whoops his ass, I expect them to live up to their word." - Matt Lindland, after finding out Paulo Filho could not make weight (MMA Weekly)

"It threw me off. Every time I envisioned the match and played it out through my head … the different scenarios … I never once envisioned him not fighting back. I never envisioned him just laying there. I didn’t know what to do. It was similar to being at a dance with a partner who doesn’t know how to dance." - Chael Sonnen (Sherdog)

"I’ve never seen it. I’ve never seen it in another fight. I’ve never had it done to me in practice or in a competition. It made me real cautious, and I regret that a little bit." - Sonnen

"What is he looking at? I feel like I'm watching the movie with Woody Harrelson (where) he's like talking to jesus or something." - Frank Mir, trying to make sense of Filho's inability to focus on his opponent (WEC Versus Telecast)

"He's fine." - Filho's manger Ed Soares, doing some damage control (MMA Weekly)

"I thought he was in the best spirits in the past two fights. I’m not a mind reader." - Soares

"Anyone who knows him knows that’s not Paulo Filho. He didn’t show up." - Soares, unfortunately for Filho, neither did Jesus

WHY ISN'T THE MEDIA ALL UP ON DEUCE MCALLISTER'S JOCK?

"I’ve been accused of using steroids my entire life, probably since the tenth grade in high school… I’ve never failed a drug test. Now if I was a black guy and I looked the way I do would I get asked this question a 100 times? I just happen to be a white guy that has some great genetics, so I guess that puts a bullseye on me… I’m a white dude that’s shredded and you don’t see a lot of it — a guy that’s walking around that looks like me." - Brock Lesnar, while unfortunatley bringing race into the equation, makes a good point (MMA Mania)

"Some of the guys were saying when you guys face off and touch gloves you should whisper 'steroids' and watch his blood pressure go up." - Randy Couture, and the psychological warfare beings (Yahoo)

SPOT ON WEC PRE-FIGHT COMMENTS

"Matt Hume tested me out and told me I’m at 40 percent of my ability, and I have to get to 90 percent." - Jens Pulver, showing that 40 percent on Wednesday (Yahoo)

"The striking has definitely not come easy to me. I’ve had to spend a lot of time working at it, but I feel like it’s getting better and better all the time." - Jake Rosholt, who proceeded to show no defense standing (UFC.com)

VINCE MCMAHON COULDN'T SCRIPT A TURN THIS GOOD

"Randy if you're listening right now, I hope Lesnar (expletive) kills you." - Affliction co-founder Todd Beard, I think it's safe to say the relationship between Affliction and Randy Couture has soured (Yahoo)

"I'm not terribly surprised by anything he does at this point. He's been a bit of a loose cannon our entire relationship. Now he's pushed it over the line where it's not re-salvageable." - Couture, affirming the sentiment (Yahoo)

"Guys with drinking problems, is what it boils down to. I've seen it at several different professional meetings where he's ordering shots and out of control. And it's not something I want be associated with." - Couture

WHITE NOISE

"I said from day one I hate the UK v USA idea." - UFC President Dana White, on the next season of the Ultimate Fighter (The Sun)

"We put on a card one time, the USA v Canada, it was fucking retarded." - White, in his usual elegance

PARTING SHOTS

"Maybe Kenny’s face looks better on television." - Joe Stevenson, trying to rationalize why he enters his fight with Kenny Florian as the underdog (UFC.com)

"On paper it almost makes no sense whatsoever. I can't wear basketball shoes into the octagon." - Nate Quarry, on his new sponsorship deal with And1 (Yahoo)

"I’ve really done everything I can to turn my life around." - Chris Leben, after getting busted for steroid use (Yahoo)

"And my pitch to Chris is, 'The first guy that starts grappling is a pussy, so let's not do that.'" - Marcus Davis, on his upcoming bout with Chris Lytle (MMA Junkie)

"I'm going to know when my clock says I'm ready." - Kevin Randleman (MMA Junkie)

FightLines: Light Heavyweights - Vol. III

Mike Fagan — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:36:01 -0000

Liddell > W Silva > Jardine > Liddell
Ortiz > Griffin > Jackson > Liddell > Ortiz
Griffin > Bonnar > Irvin > Alexander > Jardine > Griffin

Light Heavyweights - Vol. II
Light Heavyweights - Vol. I
FightLines FAQ

And the FightLines Extrapolated Power Rankings:

	Name	RatingsPLUS
1	Rashad Evans	1.400
2	Thiago Silva	1.342
3	Lyoto Machida	1.229
4	Goran Reljic	1.143
4	Glover Teixeira	1.143
6	James Irvin	1.104
7	Rich Franklin	1.086
8	Vladimir Matyushenko	1.057
9	Quinton Jackson	1.014
10	Stephan Bonnar	0.976

Explanation of the most retarded top 10 list after the break...

So, you didn't know that James Irvin is the number 7 fighter at 205, did you?

There's a valid explanation for all these shenanigans of course. For those unfamiliar with FightLines, you have to remember that we remove results that end up in a loop. Think of it as a game of rock-scissors-paper (or roshambo for you freaks). Rock beats scissors, scissors beat paper, and paper beats rock. So, can you really say any of the 3 options is superior to the others?

Well, in this run of FightLines, we have loops involving three, four, and five fighters. Combined with an unusually small kernel of fighters (more on that too), that eliminates a lot of data from the graph. Which is why you end up with guys who have good records against not-so-good competition littering the top 10. Once the top stars fight each other on a more consistent basis (with UFC 92 being a good start), you'll start seeing the top 10 make a little more sense.

A few things have caused our shortage of data. First, Forrest Griffin and Quinton Jackson were put on the shelf for 9+ months as a result of the Ultimate Fighter. On a normal schedule, both fighters would have fought at least twice in the interim. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua will have gone over a year and a half between fights when he meets Mark Coleman. Between fighting heavyweights in Pride and long layoffs in between his UFC bouts, Wanderlei Silva only has four fights of record at 205.

So let's break down what we do know. First off, Rashad Evans really helped himself with his knockout of perennial posterboy Chuck Liddell. While Liddell was his first big test, it's hard to argue anyone outside of Forrest Griffin and Quinton Jackson have really accomplished more in the past 18 months.

One man who could make the argument is Lyoto Machida. His win over Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, however, looks less impressive when you consider his losses to Glover Teixeira and Luis Arthur Cane and the inactivity of Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona. The fight with Thiago Silva should give him a title shot in the event of a victory, but I have a sneaking suspicion the winner of Silva/Jackson III will get that honor.

Speaking of that fight, it will be the only one of their soon-to-be trilogy recognized in the system.

Expect an update shortly after the new year, which will hopefully bring some clarity to 205.

Power Rankings Explanation

RatingPLUS = (((Bwins -Bloss) / (Bwins + Bloss + Aloss) + 1) / 2) + ((Bwins/Fighters) - (Bloss/Fighters * 2))

Key

Bwins - Beatwins, the number of fighters an individual has paths to below them on the FightLines graph

Bloss - Beatlosses, the number of fighters an individual has paths to above them on the FightLines graph

Aloss - Ambiguous Losses, losses that have been looped out that leave the two fighters involved without a path to each other

Fighters - Total Fighters, the number of fighters on the graph minus the fighter in question

SB Nation User Blog: Mike Fagan

The Week in Quotes, November 22nd - 28th

What I Want for MMA in 2009

FightLines: Heavyweights Vol. III

The Week in Quotes, November 15th - 21st

Will Jon Fitch Open the Flood-gates?

Welcome Your New Heavyweight UFC Overlord: Brock Lesnar

The Week in Quotes, November 8th - 14th

Gambling Spotlight: UFC 91

Randy Couture

vs.

Brock Lesnar

Kenny Florian

vs.

Joe Stevenson

Dustin Hazelett

vs.

Tamdan McCrory

Gabriel Gonzaga

vs.

Josh Hendricks

Demian Maia

vs.

Nate Quarry

The Week in Quotes, November 1st - 7th

FightLines: Light Heavyweights - Vol. III