SB Nation User Blog: Mike Fagan

TUF 10: The Ultimate Fighter Live Discussion (Episode 9)

Mike Fagan — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 17:25:25 -0000

Holy crap, Marcus Jones can move on the ground. A first round armbar submission over Mike Wessel saves Team Rampage from going 0-fer and Quinton Jackson from another round of energy drink fasting.

Post-fight, Rashad Evans had the audacity to invite (former?) Team Rampage fighters to train with his boys. Their mouths said no, but their faces said, "I don't want Rampage to make fun of me."

Dana and the coaches set the quarterfinals bracket at the end of the show. Dana caved to Rampage's demands, allowing Jones to fight Darrill "Titties" Schoonover. Meanwhile, Brandon Schaub gets Jon Madsen, James McSweeney gets Matt Mitrione (a.k.a. Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson), and in tonight's episode season favorite Roy Nelson fights Justin Wren.

How will Team Rashad handle fighting each other? Will Wes Sims torture Mitrione out of the competition, opening up a spot for a hungry Kimbo? Will three round fights kill somebody?

Tune in to find out!

With Your Shield or on It: The Unfortunate Death of Jake Shields

Mike Fagan — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:38:35 -0000

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Did Jake Shields cost the Chicago Cubs another shot at a World Series? Ye gods. Shields received so much heat Saturday night that South Side hero/North Side goat Steve Bartman announced he would return from the underground world he entered following the Cubs' 2003 playoff exit.

Chicago, it seems, is not the place to host your middleweight title fights. Just over a calendar year passed since Anderson Silva mocked and embarassed Patrick Cote in the UFC Octagon before Cote blew his knee out. While Silva danced circles around Cote, Shields brought opponent Jason Miller's hug-a-thon prognostication to fruition.

Yet, while Shields initiated the ground war of attrition, Miller has escaped any sort of blame for the entertainment value of the fight. It was Miller, not Shields, who lacked the ability to maintain a vertical base. It was Miller, not Shields, who entered the cage as the larger fighter. It was Miller, not Shields, who guaranteed he would turn the fight into a brawl.

It's also hard to find fault in the reaction from Sears Center patrons. For all the build the first two fights provided, Shields and Miller unleashed a buzzkill more potent than flashing red and blue lights outside of a high school house party.

The blame should rest squarely on the shoulders of Scott Coker and the Strikeforce matchmaking team. Not only did the fight look like a turd for casual fans on paper, but Strikeforce found a way to increase the turdness exponentially when it put up the vacated (and meaningless) Strikeforce middleweight title, adding two rounds to a fight that promised to go fifteen.

And now, instead of crowning a champion with exposure to a national network audience, Jake Shields is stuck with a case of MMA's genital herpes, the Scarlet Letter "B" for "boring".

Like a real case of the herp, no cure exists. You only hope to contain the symptoms. He'll have to have his next fight on Showtime with the virus still fresh on his skin. He won't be able to headline an event for the foreseeable future. And you'll constantly have to apply high-priced lotions like Gina Carano to keep that bothersome itch in check.

It's unfortunate for Shields because he went out and did exactly what he needed to do. You could hear the faint whispers of Randy Couture gushing about Shields's ability to impose his will on Miller. But now, because he couldn't finish a guy that makes Gumby look rigid, Shields, and Shields alone, has to deal with the backlash for putting on an "underwhelming" performance.

The Week in Quotes: November 1st - 7th

Mike Fagan — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 23:21:52 -0000

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BLACK MAGIC ONLY WORKS ON THE ROOKIE

"I look into his eyes and I see nothing." - Brett Rogers, before his fight with the world's number one heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko. Emelianenko knocked out Rogers two minutes into the second round. (Sports Illustrated)

"A lot of people say, 'Don't pay attention to his demeanor because it will psyche you out.' It's true. I feel that." - Rogers.

"I guess you can say I didn't see it coming." - Rogers, following the loss. Emelianenko landed a counter right hook that floored the Chicago native. (Cage Writer)

"The fight went as planned." - Rogers. My wallet agrees.

'"I think a lot of people sleep on [his speed], his first step." - Rogers; who, in all fairness, performed better than your average Sam's Club tire mechanic.

"I met a bear in the zoo. A bear is very strong; very hard for a human to kill a bear with simple methods." - Emelianenko, with his most interesting quotable for the week. (Yahoo)

IT'S THIS MONKEY THAT BASICALLY TRAVELS AROUND THE WORLD, DOING NASTY THINGS

"I think it’s funny how some people are underestimating me." - Jason "Mayhem" Miller, who entered the fight around a 5-2 underdog against Jake Shields. Shields would go on to control Miller on the floor for the entire five rounds. (MMA Mania)

"I should be the favorite. But oddsmakers’ jobs are to make money and to get action." - Miller. The operating phrase in this sentence is "make money".

"I’m going to turn this into a brawl. I’m not interested in turning it into a hugging contest, which is what he may do." - Miller, who got more hugs than your Aunt Selma.

DESPERATION IS A STINKY COLOGNE

"I still had my apartment but if something would've happened and the fight had been canceled, I would've been evicted six days later." - Pat Barry, who went into his UFC 104 bout with Antoni Hardonk without a penny to his name. (MMAScrapsRadio.com)

"I go to the bank, I'm sweaty, I've got the black eye, I haven't shaven in two days, I'm strung out because I haven't slept, I have green circles under my eyes so I'm like 'Can I have a deposit slip ma'am?'" - Barry, this really isn't too far off from your everyday bank customer.

"She looks at the deposit slip, then the check, then looks at me and says 'Excuse me I'll be right back.' Then a manager comes out, a guy in a suit and says 'What seems to be the problem?' I was like 'Well I have a black eye, that's the only problem. I know this looks really ridiculous.'" - Barry

"So he asks me for my ID, I hand him my license an he's like 'Your license says Pat Barry, but this check was written to Patrick Barry.' So I decided to be funny and tell him Pat Barry is in my trunk right now. He didnt laugh." - Barry, making a second level joke about living in his car.

WE SHOULD HAVE TAKEN YOU OUT BACK AND SHOT YOU A LONG TIME AGO

"Unfortunately Josh was matched up with fighters that wanted to take him down and lay on him to grind out a victory." - Josh Neer's manager Mickey Dubberly, giving his reasons Neer was let go by the UFC. (ProMMA.info)

"If you are going to take Josh down then at least try to finish him, just don’t lay on him and hold him down." - Dubberly. I have some advice to your client. Learn to get the fuck up.

THEY THINK I'M MEXICAN

"I know I’ve lost two matches. I still think I can beat him, and I still think that’s a big fight." - Former UFC light heavyweight champ Tito Ortiz, clamoring for a third fight with Chuck Liddell. You can't beat him, and it's not a big fight. (MMA Weekly)

"I think if I call him out enough times I think he’ll be a man and step up." - Ortiz, hopefully Chuck didn't learn "How to Be a Man" from Tito Ortiz.

PARTING SHOTS

"I guarantee you 1,000 percent that Dan Henderson is signed by Strikeforce." - UFC President Dana White (Yahoo)

"Two fatties swinging like bums. Yawn, stretch, back to sleep." - Chael Sonnen, in his prediction about the Fedor/Rogers fight. Some doctors are looking into the Sonnen/Okami fight as a sleep remedy. (Sherdog)

"Cung won't fight me. That's why he vacated the belt obviously...and then fights a month later." - Jake Shields. How can you talk about Cung Le when he's fought such MMA luminaries as Tony Fryklund, Sam Morris, and Jason Von Flue? (Bloody Elbow)

"You know Shogun wasn’t the only one robbed that night. So what If I lost the first round by a small margin, all that meant is there were still two rounds up for grabs, my shoulders were just loosening up at the beginning of the second round – the real fight was just getting started." - Ben Rothwell, complaining about the stoppage of his bout with Cain Velasquez at UFC 104. Cain must have really scrambled his eggs if Ben thought the first round was close. (Cage Report)

"I’m not sure exactly what it is he has, mono or whatever, but I know that he was sick and couldn’t get a good, hard workout in." - Brock Lesnar's trainer Greg Nelson. Lesnar's fight with Shane Carwin was pushed back to January 2nd, and now looks like it will be pushed back further. (Yahoo)

Gambling Spotlight '68 Special: Investing in Fedor Emelianenko More Profitable Than Stock Market

Mike Fagan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:13:00 -0000

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What are you making on your savings account? Point-two-five percent? Got an even one percent on that CD? I laugh at your pitiful attempts at increasing your earning power. Put your faith in Fedor, sir.

Ignorant bettors will scoff, thinking that you should never bet on a line this chalk heavy. Don't listen to those chumps. The fundamental theorem of gambling is this: when the expected win percentage of an event is greater than the odds presented, you profit.

Even at the worst odds available (-625 at Bodog), Emelianenko still brings in tremendous value. Conservatively (very conservatively), I have Fedor as a 90% favorite in this fight. According to the Kelly Criterion, we should be betting approximately 27.5% of our bankroll given the odds and our expected win probability (using a more risk-averse, half-Kelly number yields 14.7%).

And if you've been paying attention to my advice with regards to hitting lines early and often, you'll have noticed that Fedor sat between -400 and -450 for the past month. This is such a tragically mispriced line that I would recommend the books fire whoever handles their MMA business.

Brett Rogers is a respectable heavyweight and deserving of his fringe top ten ranking. Unfortunately for him, Fedor Emelianenko lands so far outside your normal distribution for talent that I have him as AT LEAST a -300 favorite against every other heavyweight not infected with mononucleosis (and I still have him as a substantial favorite against that guy, too).

I know a lot of people get put off when they see their $6.25 investment only returns a measly $1. Think of it this way though. You're still making nearly 16% on every dollar. If you can find me a more profitable place to put your money (and then one that doesn't require you to keep the money frozen for five years), more power to you.

Just a caveat. Even with an aggressive 95% win probability, 5-10% still represents a very real risk of failure. However, that projection, in my mind, covers the realistic paths to victory for Rogers - a Black Swan KO, fluke cut, or otherwise unforeseeable injury.

Load up, folks.

TUF 10: The Ultimate Fighter Live Discussion (Episode 8)

Mike Fagan — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:34:51 -0000

Well, Team Rampage is 0-7 and the UFC training facility needs a new door. Is there any reason to think Mr. T doesn't going 0-for-the-show?

He does have 6'18" Marcus Jones going for him tonight. Unfortunately, Jones also likes gardening, D'n'D, and gassing in practice. Yeesh.

Zak Jensen and Matt Mitrione both now have snap pools going on them. Jensen was recently named in a wrongful death suit. My question is: who had October 30th in the pool?

The biggest question at this point is what happens if Team Rampage has no fighters advance in the tournament. Who will coach Team Rashad's fighters? Will Ken Shamrock return and show Rampage how it's done?

Taking the Stand: Defending the Ten-Point Must System

Mike Fagan — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:57:19 -0000

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Dave Meltzer lays his solution to the ten-point must system "problem":

I’ve previously advocated a system that is basically identical to the one Nelson "Doc" Hamilton suggested earlier this year when the Association of Boxing Commissioners was looking at MMA rules and regulations in hopes of creating uniformity and making improvements.

Instead of the current implementation, this suggested system would include half-points. If a round is even, it should be scored 10-10. If it’s a close round and someone squeaked it out, go 10-9.5. A 10-9 round would be when there is no doubt who won the round, but the round winner didn’t hurt the other fighter to the point a judge would go 10-8.

There's two issues I have with this line of thinking. First, a similar "system" could be implemented with a more liberal use of the current ten-point scoring. Deducting a point for knockdowns provides boxing with a built-in way to liberalize round scores. For a variety of reasons, that concept cannot be ported over to MMA. Instead, judges should not be afraid to score decisive rounds 10-8 (and current 10-8 rounds as 10-7).

Second, if we can't trust judges to use the current scoring system, what makes us think that adding more data points will make things any better? If adding half-points to score system make it more efficient, surely adding the ability to score fractional tenths of point would make it even better. Yet, I find it highly unlikely that fans would trust judges to try and differentiate between a 10-9.9 and 10-9.8 round.

We can also look at the fight that caused the article to be written (Machida vs. Shogun at UFC 104), and we'll find that Meltzer's system would, in all likelihood, have resulted in the bout being scored a draw. Assume the following scorecards for the three judges under the modified ten-point must system (score listed for Machida first):

	Rosales	Peoples	Hamilton
Round 1	10-9.5	10-9.5	9.5-10
Round 2	10-9.5	10-9.5	10-9.5
Round 3	10-9.5	10-9.5	10-9.5
Round 4	9.5-10	9.5-10	10-9.5
Round 5	9-10	9-10	9-10

All three judges would have scored the fight a 48.5-48.5 draw.

Meltzer then his this to say about the "perfect" scoring system:

The best system is the one UFC had from late 1995 to early 2000, where at the end of the fight, the judge wrote down the name of the winner on a piece of paper.

Although that system resulted in the Bas Rutten win over Kevin Randleman for the heavyweight title in 1999, perhaps the one title-fight decision in UFC history worse than Machida vs. Rua, it was probably the only eye-rolling decision of that era. There were close fights that could have gone either way. But UFC judging in that era, even though the sport was in its infancy, was far superior to that of boxing or kickboxing during those same years.

Undoubtedly there are flaws. For example, late rounds are going to mean more than early rounds. And the mentality of having to convincingly beat the champion to win a title would come more into play because you don’t have the numbers, in theory, eliminating that.

...

What often happens in three-round fights is that there are two very close rounds that could go either way, and then a third round where one fighter dominates. In the old system, similar to the system still used in Japan, that fighter would be the clear winner. In the current system, with a little bit of bad luck, that fighter could lose. There have been numerous fights I’ve scored in 10-point must where, after adding up my scores, the deserving winner ended up the loser.

What Meltzer fails to take into consideration is that the UFC put on a mere eighteen fight cards in the period between the use of judges and the implementation of the ten point must system (the first Ultimate Ultimate through UFC 20). For comparison, the UFC will have put on twenty cards this year alone. A deeper look at the number reveals that only 29 of 139 fights (20.9%) even went to a decision during that period. Meltzer is clearly romanticizing a time period in which the mere probability of close, controversial decisions was limited at best.

Oddly, Meltzer stumbles upon the only true "solution" at the end of the piece:

My feeling on judging overall is that the right guy wins most of the time. It’ll never be perfect because there is no such thing, particularly in a sport where the offense is as diverse as MMA.

The most "objective" solution to this mess would be to either award draws to all fights that go to the final bell or eliminate time constraints altogether. Both methods would eliminate the clutter of judging and provide fighters with a very simple goal: finish the fight.

But the beauty of its simplicity is countered by the magnitude of its impracticality. MMA would never survive as a virtual death sport, and no sane person would feel satisfied with Brock Lesnar, for instance, leaving with a draw after his fight with Heath Herring.

Simply, the ten-point must system is a fine way of judging fights for MMA. It's certainly not perfect, and if a method can be conjured that proves more effective, we should not be shy in its implementation. But without a proper alternative in place, we should instead focus our attention on the judges, athletic commissions, and their methods of education instead of attempting to replace a practice that has proven its effectiveness over the last decade-plus.

The Week in Quotes: October 25th - 31st

Mike Fagan — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:51:47 -0000

DON'T SELL YOURSELF SHORT, JUDGE, YOU'RE A TREMENDOUS SLOUCH

"I give the fight to Machida in a very, very close fight." - Professional MMA judge Cecil Peoples, explaining his scoring of the Machida/Rua fight from UFC 104. (MMA Weekly)

"My thing is, Rua did hit him more. But Machida hit him harder, especially in the early rounds." - Peoples, showing off his pocket sized force calculator.

"You have to keep in mind we always the favour the fighter who is trying to finish the fight, and leg kicks certainly don't do that." - Peoples, who saw Yuji Shimada refereeing the fight. (Cage Report)

"Lyoto made Shogun come after him, he determined where the fight took place which in my opinion constitutes as effective Octagon control." - Peoples. Machida's reached a level where he can elude the Unified Rules.

"Now you’re pissed off because it’s my fault that you lost your money. No, it’s not. It’s Machida’s fault. If you don’t like it, you can go to hell." - Peoples.

SO I GOT THAT GOING FOR ME, WHICH IS NICE

"I kind of look at it as a car dealership." - Black House manager Ed Soares, dressed in cheap plaid suit. (Yahoo)

"When you look at the car dealership, well, thank God there are Toyota dealers. There’s nothing wrong with Toyotas. They’re great cars, reliable cars, but there are 3,000 of them on the lot." - Soares

"Walk into a Bentley dealership, though, and there are only 12, 15 cars in the place. " - Soares

"There are two things about that: The guy’s walking in to buy the car, and you know they’re not going to be negotiating price when they’re buying a Bentley. And that’s how I feel about our fighters. You want one of our fighters, you’re going to get a high-performance fighter." - Soares.

WHAT ARE YOU, RELIGIOUS OR SOMETHING?

"When they hit you on the floor? That doesn’t make any sense, it’s savage." - "Raging Bull" Jake LaMotta, sharing his thoughts on MMA. (NowBoxing.com)

"It’s out of control, I still think the regular way is the best way." - LaMotta, the regular way being allegedly beating your wife. Civilized.

YOU'RE NOT, YOU'RE NOT GOOD, AL. YOU STINK.

"It was a complete, utter defeat." - Former consensus number one middleweight contender Yushin Okami, on a lopsided decision loss to Chael Sonnen. (MMA Mania)

"Though I try to improve and diversify my training routine, I probably hit the ceiling at some point." - Okami

"I have the option of uprooting myself and training overseas… if I continue to train in Japan, I feel that I will end up becoming complacent, so I want to go back to square one and challenge myself. I feel that there is a need for me to train with training partners who are bigger than me." - Okami. You mean to tell me there aren't plenty of 6'2", 200 lbs men walking around Japan?

DO YOU TAKE DRUGS, DANNY?

"It’s a great matchup. I eat Jiu Jitsu guys for breakfast a lot of times." - Karo Parisyan. Now, is that before or after the opiate cocktail? (Fight Hype)

"I don’t know him as a person, but he looks like a nice guy." - Parisyan, on upcoming opponent Dustin Hazelett.

PARTING SHOTS

"I never said he received special treatment besides what everyone already knows, besides the treatment he's already received." - TUF 10 contestant Roy Nelson, wanting to let you know that he never said that Kimbo Slice received favorable treatment except for that time he did say that Kimbo Slice received special treatment. (Watch Kalib Run)

"Nah. I'm not interested. If I wanted to sell my soul, I'd be a Christian." - Jason "Mayhem" Miller, on returning to the UFC. (USA Today)

"I could get him up to speed on the ground wrestling part of it, while he could take advantage of his boxing talent." - UFC legend Randy Couture, on training Ricky Hatton for MMA. I'm sure you can teach him grappling at all-you-can-eat fish and chips over at Crown and Anchor. (Manchester Evening News)

"I will punch Shinya Aoki in the street." - Joe Stevenson. Please do. (Cage Writer)

"No, I watch the ultimate fighting, though." - DMX, when asked if he watches MMA. (Bloody Elbow)

Worlds Collide: Time to Bring in the WEC Cavalry

Mike Fagan — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 19:58:08 -0000

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"You have no idea of the magnitude of this thing. If she is allowed to infiltrate this world then George Costanza as you know him ceases to exist. You see, right now I have Relationship George. But there is also Independent George. That's the George you know, the George you grew up with... Movie George, Coffee Shop George, Liar George, Bawdy George."

-George Costanza, Seinfeld

Dana White must feel a lot like George Costanza. Outspoken. Male pattern baldness. Dreading his worlds colliding.

The UFC finds itself walking a very thin line. Coming off one of their biggest summers ever, complete with their centennial supershow, the company now finds themselves signing, resigning, scrapping, replacing, and moving fights all over the autumn and winter months. Quinton Jackson up and Mohawk'd himself to Vancouver. Brock Lesnar picked up a case of swine flu from a viking horn. Lyoto Machida's hand has eluded him. Anderson Silva has a recurring funny bone injury. Thiago Alves's knee won't even let him TRY to make weight. And despite Greg Jackson's best efforts, Georges St. Pierre CAN'T hit a guy with his pulled groin.

So what does a company do when a significant handful of their top stars are on the proverbial shelf? Well, promote Amir Sadollah and Phil "Oil Lantern" Baroni onto the main card.

Jesus. If only the UFC had a sister promotion from which they could pluck talent in cases of emergency. Perhaps a promotion whose fighters have clamored for a bigger stage and bigger paydays. A promotion that calls a small niche cable station its home, and could use exposure to a wide audience.

Desperate times call for desperate measures, as they say. Desperate times call for the implementation of rational measures long past due, as I say. Why not put Miguel Torres's comeback fight on at UFC 107? You don't take away a title fight from the WEC and Versus, you set up a Brian Bowles rematch (or build a new star if Torres falls) with millions watching, and you fill the spot vacated by Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves with two high level guys.

"If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right."

-Jerry Seinfeld, Seinfeld

TUF 10: The Ultimate Fighter Live Discussion (Episode 7)

Mike Fagan — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 03:46:53 -0000

Does anyone still hold the pretension that Team Rampage wins a fight this season? With two bouts remaining, Jackson has ex-NFLer Marcus Jones and Scott Junk left in his arsenal. Will either be able to redeem the season?

Meanwhile, Team Rashad's Matt Mitrione continues to pander to his "bum" right shoulder. And, according to the preview, he's gone from annoying his coaches to picking fights with teammates.

As the season begins to wind down, we now begin the run of "best fight of the season" promotion that will continue all the way through the finale! I eagerly await Marcus Jones and James McSweeney breathing on each other in the semi-finals!

Will Rashad give Rampage a good ol' fashioned Team Jackson nipple tweak? How many times will we hear Kimbo Slice beg to get back in the house? Does Zak Jensen final go postal on the house? Tune in to find out!

Laying the Groundwork for the 2009 Bloody Elbow Reader Awards

Mike Fagan — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 23:37:26 -0000

We're still two months away from year's end, but it's time to start thinking about year end awards. Last year, I hastily put the idea together, and I think it ended up as a smashing success. I'm hoping to build on that with a little more time and planning this year.

The 2008 awards, in one word, were chaotic. I just had you guys send me your top 5 for each category, and put together a spreadsheet with the results. This year's ship will run a little tighter.

For starters, I'd like to narrow each category down to five nominees. Nominees will be determined either unilaterally by myself and/or the BE staff using input from the comment sections. We will use the Instant Runoff method for voting. I will explain the voting process in greater detail in the future, for those too lazy to click the link.

So why am I posting this now? Last year, we had a few candidates that might have had a better shot had they been brought up sooner with appropriate media linkage. The next two months will be fresh in our heads come January 1st, so it's time to start looking back to the beginning of the year, and uncover all the lost diamonds in the rough.

In addition, last year we had 14 categories (listed below). I'd like to get that to an even 20. So put on your brainstorming caps and think of some ideas.

2008 Categories and Winners:

Fighter of the Year - Rashad Evans
Fight of the Year - Miguel Torres vs. Yoshiro Maeda
Card of the Year - UFC 92
Personality of the Year (in the vein of TIME's Person of the Year) - Dana White
Promotion of the Year - UFC
Knockout of the Year - Rashad Evans vs. Chuck Liddell
Submission of the Year - Dustin Hazelett vs. Josh Burkman
Breakout Fighter of the Year - Brock Lesnar
Upset of the Year - Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Performance of the Year - Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Story of the Year - StandGate and EliteXC's Downfall
Disgrace of the Year - Junie Browning and TUF 8
Commentator of the Year - Joe Rogan
Fight Camp of the Year - Jackson's Submission Fighting