Jose Contreras’ loss against the Cubs yesterday puts a dent in what has been a very good month of June for a guy who was in the minor leagues this past May.

His line read like this last afternoon: Seven and one-third innings pitched, seven hits allowed, five runs allowed (four earned), one walks and eight strikeouts. The big blow, of course, was a Geovany Soto three-run homer which put the Cubs up for good.

Despite his first loss since May 8th, Contreras showed a few positives in yesterday’s loss.

Here’s his pitch distribution chart against the Cubs:

Contreras Pitch Dist vs Cubs (via mpindels)

And his pitch distribution throughout the season for comparison:

Contreras Pitch Dist Season Avg (via mpindels)

As usual, the majority of pitches he threw were four-seam fastballs, but Contreras’ really went to the changeup a bit more than usual yesterday. I’m not sure what the Cubs’ scouting report for yesterday’s game ready (perhaps Cub hitters struggle against the change), but instead of relying on the slider as his primary secondary pitch, he stuck with the change.

Here is a look at Contreras’ movement yesterday. Bear with me a little: I’m still learning how to graph pitches using the data extracted from MLB Gameday and I’m by no means a master of Microsoft Excel, so if the graph is a little difficult to comprehend I do apologize. The X-axis represents Contreras’ Horizontal Movement while the Y-axis represents his Vertical Movement:

Jose Contreras Movement vs Cubs (via mpindels)

Here’s a numerical version of Contreras’ average movements along with average velocities obtained by Brooks Baseball:

Contreras Movements and Velocities vs Cubs (via mpindels)

The movements aren’t too different from Contreras’ season averages, but he was throwing a bit harder than usual. The average velocity of his four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, slider and curveball were a bit higher than usual. Both of his fastballs topped out at around 95 MPH and we saw a number of fastballs in the 93-94 MPH range. You can’t discount the human element in baseball; perhaps Contreras was a little more amped up for a game with this type of significance, but it’s clear his velocity was not a problem at all.

Another plus were the 8 punchouts that tied a season high. Four of them came from the four-seam fastball, three from the changeup and one from a nasty curveball/forkball thrown to Alfonso Soriano who struck out three times against Jose (Soriano had previously gone 5 for 8 against Contreras’ with 3 home runs).

There were most definitely a few negatives: Despite a season groundball rate of 50%, Contreras was very flyball prone yesterday giving up two home runs. He also looked much more line drive prone compared to previous June starts.

But he was efficient, throwing just 99 pitches the entire game, nearly 2/3 of them going for strikes. He was throwing harder than usual and showed us both his fastball and changeup can be outpitches. It’s never good when you lose to one of the least productive offenses in baseball, but as a whole, the were positives to take from this start.

Information was obtained from Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball.

Though on the surface he appeared one of the major league’s breakout pitchers in 2008, Gavin Floyd had a great deal of luck come his way during his 17-win, 3.84 ERA season last year.

Because of so-so peripherals, an abnormally low .268 BABIP and a high home run rate, many projection systems cried out for regression in 2009. PECOTA called for a 5.00 ERA in just 107 innings, CHONE projected a 5.08 ERA in 172 innings and ZiPS a 4.70 ERA in 184 innings.

Despite struggling in April and May, Floyd has really turned a corner in corner in June and he’s become a more complete pitcher in 2009. Though his ERA is currently 4.65, his FIP-ERA of 3.79 is 12th best among AL starters. There are a couple of things in particular that have changed with Floyd since 2008.

*Mixing It Up*

Here are Floyd’s pitch distribution charts from last season:

Floyd Pitch Dist 2008 (via mpindels)

And from thus far into the 2009 season:

Floyd Pitch Dist 2009 (via mpindels)

Note that each charts percentages do not add up to 100% because intentional balls and pitchouts were not included.

From here we can see that Floyd is relying less and less on his fastball and focusing a bit more on his secondary pitches.

Also note the addition of a two seam fastball detected by pitch f/x. Pitch f/x algorithms are often inaccurate meaning Floyd may not intentionally be throwing a two-seam fastball, but the pitch f/x system is picking up a pitch similar to it.

Over the last three seasons as a whole, Floyd has used his fastball less and less, mixing up his repertoire and perhaps becoming a little less predictable.

*The Curveball*

One of the pitches he’s been using a bit more frequently is his curveball, known by most White Sox fans as his best pitch.

This season Floyd is throwing his curveball at an average velocity of 79.8 MPH, a little more than two MPH faster than the average curveball. He’s also getting an average of -5.4 inches of vertical movement, right on target with the major league average, and 7.1 inches of horizontal movement, nearly two inches more than the major league average. That being said, his curveball is clearly an above average pitch: he’s getting more horizontal movement and throwing it harder than the average major league pitcher with a curveball.

Here is a look at the value of each of Floyd’s pitch types of the last two seasons. For those new to this type of statistic, the wFB/C column represents fastball runs above average per 100 fastballs. The wCB/C column represents curveball runs above average per 100 curveballs and so on:

Floyd Pitch Values (via mpindels)

As we can see, Floyd is getting much more value from his curveball in 2009 at 2.95 runs above average per 100 curveballs which is the third best figure in the AL behind Brad Bergesen of Baltimore and Roy Halladay of Toronto.

All Statistics provided by Fangraphs.

Thanks in large part to an offense that is both tops in the American League in runs scored (538) and OPS (.816), the Texas Rangers are making the AL West race a little interesting currently sporting a 50-46 record, sitting 7.5 games back of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Of the top four AL hitters in Value Over Replacement Player, three of them play for the Rangers, the league’s leader currently being second baseman Ian Kinsler at 52.4 runs.

Always blessed with immense talent, Kinsler is putting together an MVP-caliber season. He is currently hitting .337/.397/.548 with 14 home runs in 398 at-bats. Each of those slash stats are career highs and he’s one pace to set a career high in home runs, health permitting of course.

Baseball fans, particularly those of the Texas Rangers variety, have always known Kinsler has an All-Star caliber bat, but I think it’s safe to say none of us expected a first half like this. Even though he’s been overshadowed a bit by the great story of Josh Hamilton and his run at the AL’s Triple Crown, Kinsler may very well be the Rangers MVP this season. Let’s look at what Kinsler has done differently this year and if he can continue raking at such a pace.

Continue reading this post »

Part of baseball that we seem to love (and in many cases hate) so much is the unpredictability of pitcher performances. Cliff Lee, who spent a large part of last season pitching in AAA, is currently the American League’s top starting pitcher according to VORP at 37.2 runs. The talented Tim Lincecum, who started the 2007 season in A-ball, currently leads all major league pitchers in VORP at 38.1 runs. Edinson Volquez, who struggled to turn his immense talent into results with the Texas Rangers organization for five seasons, has now emerged as one of the National League’s dominant arms. Another example of a pitcher putting it all together to establish himself as an incredibly effective pitcher in 2008 is White Sox starter John Danks.

Continue reading this post »

Following the White Sox 4-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on June 1st, one could expect eccentric manager Ozzie Guillen to feel a little frustrated. His team had just dropped three games out of a four-game set to the Rays mustering a mere nine runs in the entire series. More revealing of their offensive struggles were the 65 men the Sox left on base during the series. The third game was the epitome of those struggles as the Sox went 2-14 with runners in scoring position eventually losing on a Gabe Gross walk-off home run. Following the game Guillen claimed he wanted moves made that upcoming Tuesday. Coaching changes, player changes, whatever. He claimed that if changes weren’t made by Tuesday, the lineup would be altered.

As usual, this was just another case of Ozzie being Ozzie. General manager Kenny Williams met with Guillen before the opening of a three-game set against the Royals that Tuesday. No moves were made and the batting lineup wasn’t distorted.

Since then the Sox haven’t lost a game. Entering today’s game against the Twins, the Sox were riding a six-game win streak thanks in large part to an offense Guillen said he was sick and tired of watching.

Here is a look at the Sox offense this season before and after the win streak (today’s 7-5 victory against the Twins excluded):

March 31st- June 1st: .247/.325/.402, 30.0 AB/HR, .272 BABIP

June 2nd-June 8th: .346/.400/.627, 18.0 AB/HR, .335 BABIP

As one can see, the Sox offense has been incredibly hot thanks in large part to an upped home run rate and a ridiculous .335 BABIP. Asking whether the Sox can sustain such a high BABIP is a silly, but the team is hitting 17.2% of their batted balls for line drives, so it was expected that a few more balls were going to turn into hits. Conversely, the home run rate may partially be explained by the fact the Sox have played all of their games during the win streak at the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field, but many of the team’s struggling players, such as Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Nick Swisher, have started hitting a few more balls over the fence as well.

Can we expect the Sox offense to remain this hot throughout the course of the season? Of course not. Can John Danks and Jose Contreras pitch sub-3 ERA baseball the rest of the year? Unlikely.

But the Sox offense is better than what it showed during April and May and the team’s rotation and bullpen are good enough to make the club a legitimate threat to make a lot of noise come October.

All and all you have a White Sox team that has quietly mounted a 6.5 game lead in the American League Central and a team that currently has an 87% chance of making the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus.

Baseball fans need to start realizing things are going just as well on the South Side of Chicago as they are on the North Side.

Though the deal isn't officially complete, it appears the Mets are on the verge of acquiring perhaps baseball's most dominant pitcher in Johan Santana.

The Mets have been given a 72-hour window to sign Santana to an extension and given the relatively low price they paid for him, it seems almost inevitable Santana will be pitching many of his games at Shea Stadium in 2008 and beyond.

In some respect, it must be a sad day for Twins fans because Santana's numbers with their team speak for themselves:  A 93-44 record, 1308.2 innings pitched, 1381 strikeouts, 141 ERA+ along with two Cy Young Awards and three All-Star game appearances.  Not too shabby.

With all of that said, let's reminisce on just how dominant Santana has been over his career looking at the top ten games he's pitched according to game score:

Date:  September 3rd, 2005

Opponent:  Cleveland Indians

Game Score:  84

Box Score

Santana outdueled Cy Young candidate Kevin Millwood pitching 8 innings, giving up one run on two hits and no walks.  He struck out ten Cleveland hitters including Jhonny Peralta four times.   The Twins went on to win the game 3-2.

Date:  August 15th, 2006

Opponent:  Cleveland Indians

Game Score:  84

Box Score

In another good pitchers duel, Santana this time defeated Jake Westbook pitching 8 innings, giving up no runs on three hits and one walk.  He struck on nine hitters including Peralta and Kelly Shoppach three times each.  Minnesota would win 4-1.

Date:  September 3rd, 2004

Opponent:  Kansas City Royals

Game Score:  84

Box Score

Santana has always pitched well against Kansas City going 12-3 in his career against the Royals and this was one of his better starts.  Santana was flat out nasty pitching 7 innings, giving up no runs on one hit and one walk.  Every hitter in the Royals lineup struck out once with Santana compiling a total of 11 punchouts.  The Twins would win 2-0.

Date:  September 17th, 2005

Opponent:  Chicago White Sox

Game Score:  85

Box Score

This is why I, as a White Sox fan, won't be complaining that Santana won't be pitching in the American League Central next season.  In one of his many dominating starts against the ChiSox, Santana pitched 8 innings, giving up no runs on four hits and two walks.  He struck out 13 hitters including Jermaine Dye four times.  The Twins went on to win 5-0.

Date:  June 28th, 2002

Opponent:  Toronto Blue Jays

Game Score:  88

Box Score

This one was Santana's first real dominant big league start.  Just 23-years-old at the time, Santana pitched 8 strong innings against the Jays, giving up no runs on two hits and three walks.  He struck out 13 hitters including Jose Cruz Jr. and Vernon Wells each three times.  The Twins would win the game 4-0.

Date:  June 8th, 2005

Opponent:  Arizona Diamondbacks

Game Score:  88

Box Score

Quite possibly Santana finest interleague performance was a blowout.  He would pitch a complete game, giving up no runs on four hits and no walks.  He struck out nine Diamondback hitters including Royce Clayton three times.  The Twins would win easily 10-0.

Date:  August 12th, 2005

Opponent:  Oakland Athletics

Game Score:  89

Box Score

In yet another pitcher's duel, Santana would this time outpitch Dan Haren.  Each starter went nine innings, but Santana was just a hair better giving up no runs on three hits and one walk.  He would strike out nine hitters as the Twins went on to win a nail-biter 1-0.

Date:  September 5th, 2006

Opponent:  Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Game Score:  89

Box Score

In his 17th win of the season, Santana would pitch 8 innings against Tampa giving up no runs on two hits and one walk.  He struck out 12 hitters and the Twins went on to win 8-0.

Date:  July 6th, 2004

Opponent:  Kansas City Royals

Game Score:  92

Box Score

In arguably the second best start if his career, Santana dominated the Royals once again pitching a complete game, giving up no runs on three hits and two walks.  He struck out 13 hitters including Ken Harvey three times.  The Twins would win 4-0.

Date:  August 19th, 2007

Opponent:  Texas Rangers

Game Score:  95

Box Score

In one of his final home starts in a Twins uniform, Santana was simply was simply brilliant against the Texas Rangers.  Throwing 83 of his 112 pitches for strikes, Santana pitched 8 innings giving up no runs on two hits and no walks.  He struck out a career high 17 hitters as the Twins won 1-0.

If Johan Santana's days in Minnesota are indeed over, there isn't much question he put together a very memorable run, certainly one of the best we've seen in a while.

No, I'm not trying to turn Beyond the Box Score into a Cubs blog; I simply wanted to take another look at starter Carlos Zambrano.

Back in April of 2007, I posted a piece regarding Zambrano's rather pessimistic five-year PECOTA forecast.  For those of you who need your memory refreshed, here's a look:

As we can see, PECOTA projected good things for Zambrano in 2007, but it certainly accredited a downward trend in his overall production.  It also acknowledged the heavy workloads he had accumulated in his career up to that point may very well catch up to him as evident of the sharp decline in projected workload.

With the 2007 season long gone, let's take a look at how PECOTA did:

Nice shootin'.  Zambrano's ERA rose for the third year in a row and his peripherals continue to worsen.  While PECOTA was nearly dead on with the predicted home run and groundball rates, it was actually a bit generous on the strikeout and walk rates.  After showing a steady increase in his ability to strike hitters out, Zambrano's K/9 really went south in 2007 and his walk rate remained at a dangerously high level.

Maybe last season was just a bump in the road for Zambrano. Maybe it was just an aberration and he'll bounce back strongly in 2008.  Or is it that PECOTA is onto something here?

Back in May I suggested that Zambrano and the Cubs needed to do two things in order to "avoid" such a harsh projection:  Zambrano must control his emotions on the field and the Cubs coaching staff must watch his workload.

Unfortunately, neither of the two were fulfilled in 2007.

I once again have zero statistical evidence to back up this statement, but Zambrano still shows a tendency to pitch with too much emotion.  He still overthrows his pitches from time to time which often leads to poor control and far too many free passes.  And who can forget about the dugout fight with former Cubs catcher Michael Barrett?  As I mentioned earlier, Zambrano's emotions might very well be something holding him back.

More importantly, Zambrano continues to accumulate a ton of mileage on his right arm.  From 2004 to 2006, Zambrano placed eleventh, second and second respectively in Total Pitcher Abuse Points Accumulated.  Last season we saw more of the same, as Big Z placed second in that category once again.

There were a whopping 15 occasions last year in which Zambrano was forced to throw more than 110 pitches and four occasions in which he was forced to throw more than 122 pitches.  I understand that Lou Piniella wants to get innings out of his starters and that it's tough to get those innings when guys like Zambrano are putting runners on base and running into high pitch counts early in the game, but this is getting a little ridiculous.  

With Zambrano locked down until 2012 (for $91.5M), it's of the utmost importance the Cubs strongly monitor his workload.  He might be one of those guys that can "handle" heavy workloads, but that's a very expensive risk to take.

Though the projection is outdated, if PECOTA predicts Zambrano's five-year projection as well as it did his 2007 season, the Cubs made an awfully big mistake extending his contract into the next half-decade.

The Cubs have made plenty of noise this winter with the signings of both Kosuke Fukudome and Kerry Wood and it appears Jim Hendry may not be done yet.

Yesterday rumors begin to swirl around the web regarding the Brian Roberts to Cubs trade rumors.  Some sources originally claimed a deal was imminent, while others claimed the Orioles asking price may be a bit too high for Jim Hendry's likings.

Whatever the case, talks are clearly taking place between the two clubs and Brian Roberts may very well start at second base for the Cubs come Opening Day.

Hendry clearly isn't satisfied with what his organization has to offer at second base, but perhaps the best option is right in front of him in Eric Patterson.

Now, I'm not saying Roberts isn't a sensible option.  Last season he hit .290/.377/.432 and his VORP of 48.2 runs was good for third best among all major league second basemen.  He stole 50 bags at an 88% clip and moving to the National League is something he would likely benefit from. He was clearly a top five second basemen last season and assuming he doesn't lose his line drive stroke, he should be quite good in 2008.

One could argue this is just what the Cubs need.  The acquisition of Fukudome gives the Cubs arguably one of the strongest lineups in the National League; a trade for Roberts would really put the icing on the cake.

My question is:  Should the Cubs trade top-tier talent for Roberts or is Patterson a better in-house solution?

We all know what Roberts can do, but what about Patterson?

I've written of Corey's younger brother in the past and while he's certainly not the "toolsiest" 24-year old, he does project quite well.  Though it's a bit outdated, here is a look at his PECOTA five-year projection:

Patterson's 5-year valuation is quite strong and given the fact he hit .297/.359/.457 in his first full season at AAA, he should project as a pretty solid major leaguer in '08.  A few questions have been raised about his ability to play second base, but even with below average defense he's quite a commodity:  A young second basemen with strong on-base ability and decent pop making the major league minimum is something a number of GM's would kill for.

I'm interested to see what PECOTA has to say about Patterson for 2008.  His 2007 season at AAA was good enough to the point where the Cubs felt comfortable giving him a mere 8 major league at-bats, but he's definitely a better option than Ryan Theriot and Mark DeRosa and I wish he would have seen some time at second for the Cubs last season.

As a stat-oriented fan, Eric Patterson is the type of player I like.  However, I must admit that if the Cubs have the opportunity to strike a relatively fair deal with the Orioles to acquire Brian Roberts they should jump all over it.

In my opinion, Roberts would give the Cubs the most potent offense in the National League and he would surely give them the opportunity to make a run at the pennant in 2008.

If the Cubs however can't strike a deal for Roberts, there is no reason Cub fans should start throwing chairs.  Assuming Hendry realizes what he has in Patterson the way he did with Geovany Soto, the Cubs have a pretty good in-house solution available for second base.

With the trades of both Dan Haren and Nick Swisher, the Atheltics have completely revamped what looked to be a pretty weak farm system.

Though one can argue the Athletics did not acquire one "sure prospect" in either of the trades, they have acquired a number of talented players, many of which have the ability to make a difference at the major league level.  Let's take a look at each of the nine players the A's have acquired in their (possibly first two) big trades of the winter:

Carlos Gonzalez (acquired in Haren trade):  The immensely talented 22-year old had a very solid 2007 season split between AA and AAA hitting .288/.336/.478 with 17 homers in an even 500 at-bats.  You'd like to see a bit more plate discipline from a corner outfielder (Gonzalez took only 38 walks last season), but his upside is outstanding.  Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus notes that his tools rate as outstanding and he even makes a Hanley Ramirez comparison claiming that Gonzalez might be ready to produce in the majors despite the fact his previous minor league season wasn't dominant by statistical standards.  It's also worth noting Gonzalez has played centerfield before and while he's probably no future gold glove winner, he won't make a fool out of himself out there either.

Brett Anderson (acquired in Haren trade):  A former second-round pick, Anderson's first professional season went well as he posted a 3.07 ERA and 125/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 120.1 innings split between two levels of A-ball.  Though he's more of a lefty command pitcher without nearly as much upside as the recently acquired Gonzalez or De Los Santos, Goldstein argues he's one the finest pitching prospect in the Oakland system citing his breaking ball and changeup as both plus pitches.  It'll be interesting to see how Anderson performs at higher levels of play, but Oakland's got a good one here.

Chris Carter (acquired in Haren trade):  I've written of Carter in the past:

He had a monster season at A-ball last year as a 20-year old hitting .291/.383/.522 with 55 extra base hits (25 of which went out of the ballpark). He can hit, that's not much of a question, but his speed on the base paths and defense at first base both rate as below average.  Possibly the most intriguing aspect of Carter's presence is the pressure he places on Daric Barton.  Barton figures to start at first base for the A's come Opening Day, but if his power development continues to stall, Carter may find himself in Oakland's future plans quite soon.

Aaron Cunningham (acquired in Haren trade):   Scouts have generally given Cunningham lukewarm reviews due to the fact he doesn't really have a single skill that stands out, but he's a very interesting player on a statistical level.  As a 21-year old, Cunningham had a very strong 2007 season hitting .308/.375/.509 in 493 at-bats between A+ and AA.  He hit 16 home runs, but added in 31 doubles and 10 triples.  Before the season began, PECOTA saw some upside listing Lastings Milledge, Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp and Jeff Francoeur as comparable players.

Dana Eveland (acquired in Haren trade):   A possible sleeper in the Haren deal, Eveland hasn't had much success at the major league level, but he boasts career 8.84 K/9 and 2.61 ERA marks in the minors.  Eveland has above average stuff for a left-handed pitcher as he can get his fastball in the mid-nineties and usually showcases a pretty good breaking ball.  Not likely to start, he could be a pretty effective relief pitcher out of the Arizona bullpen health permitting.

Greg Smith (acquired in Haren trade):  I haven't read too many scouting reports on Smith, but from a statistical perspective, it seems he's more of a control lefty that's generally done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark.  That might be a bit fluky however, seeing as his groundball rates aren't very eye-popping.  He didn't place on Goldstein's top 11 prospects list, so I'm assuming we have nothing special on our hands.

Faustino de los Santos (acquired in Swisher trade):  In my opinion, the finest pitching prospect the Athletics have acquired this winter.  As a 21-year old, De Los Santos was brilliant at both levels of A-Ball posting a 2.65 ERA and 153/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 122.1 innings.  Equally brilliant are his scouting reports as Kevin Goldstein named him the finest prospect in the White Sox system before the trade.  His fastball and curve both rate as plus pitches with excellent movement and the development of his changeup is crucial as he moves up to higher levels of play. Goldstein notes that many scouts are torn as to whether his major league future is in the starting rotation or bullpen, but whatever the case, he's a damn good pitching prospect with star potential.

Gio Gonzalez (acquired in Swisher trade):  Goldstein placed Gonzalez right behind Los Santos on his White Sox Top Prospects list and it's easy to see why.  As a 21-year old in his second season at AA, he pitched very well posting a 3.18 ERA and 185/57 strikeout to walk ratio in 150 innings. Goldstein mentions that while his changeup is still a work in progress, his fastball and curveball both rate as plus pitches, his curve possibly being one of the best pitches in all of the minor leagues.  On the downside he's a flyball pitcher that was having his second go-round at the AA level. Like Los Santos, Gonzalez might eventually end up in the bullpen, but for now he'll remain a starter and he could very well make his first major league start next season.

Ryan Sweeney (acquired in Swisher trade):  Sweeney has always had the skills scouts love, but the production, particularly in the power department, just hasn't emerged yet even after two stops at AAA.  At 22 years old, he's still plenty young and may just be a late bloomer, but many are having their doubts especially after he hit .270/.347/.398 in his second try at AAA.  Things wouldn't look so bleak if he could play centerfield, but his defensive abilities truly limit him to a corner spot.

As a whole, that's an impressive bunch of young players even when you consider the fact they have traded arguably their finest starting pitcher and finest offensive position player.

For better or for worse, Billy Beane has a plan and he's certainly showing that he has the guts to carry it out this winter.

So yeah, this one's a bit late, but being a White Sox fan I feel compelled to write about Monday's trade between Chicago and Arizona.

First let's look at things from Arizona's perspective.  

With Eric Byrnes, Chris Young and Justin Upton each patrolling the Diamondback outfield, numerous baseball officials and those around the blogosphere felt the D'Backs would try to package Quentin and Double-A outfielder Carlos Gonzalez in a trade to acquire a much needed starter. Things obviously didn't work that way so the D'Backs settled for the lesser-known Chris Carter coming from the White Sox farm system.

Only 21 years of age, Carter still has a long way to go before reaching the majors, however he's already developed a reputation as your classic first baseman who can flat out rake, but offers very little on the speed and defense front.

Here's a look at Carter's numbers thus far into his short career:

As we can see, Carter is not afraid to hack away. He's shown a pretty good eye over two levels as evident of his walk rates, but he's a big time strikeout guy as well.  Still far too early to tell, but Carter looks like your prototypical three true outcomes type player.  Its worth noting Carter did improve both his walk and strikeout rates in his first full A-ball season.

Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein recently rated Carter as the #4 prospect in the White Sox system citing his tremendous strength, power to all fields, ability to draw walks and the fact he has no particular weakness against left or right-handed pitchers as his primary strengths.  His poor defense, lack of speed and high strikeout frequency are his obvious weaknesses.  Goldstein also notes Carter should begin the 2008 season at High-A ball.

Carter doesn't figure to have an immediate impact with the D'Backs, but Conor Jackson needs to pick things up if he wants to have any sort of long-term career with Arizona.

For Kenny Williams, he can certainly breathe a little easier now.  In my opinion, the White Sox needed to pursue both a centerfielder and a leftfielder when the winter meetings began.  One down, possibly another to go.

Quentin figures to step right into the White Sox vacant left field position, a place where players such as Scott Podsednik (-4.9 VORP), Rob Mackowiak (6.1 VORP) and Andy Gonzalez (-18.6 VORP) have recently called their stomping grounds.

The 25 year old didn't by any means put up All-Star caliber numbers last season; injuries and such limited him to a .214/.298/.339 line in 229 AB's.  However, he went under the knife this past October to repair his non-throwing arm and boasts a career .312/.427/.526 career MiLB line.

Assuming Quentin is in tip-top shape when the season begins, he's easily going to outproduce the like of Podsednik, Mackowiak and Gonzalez and could be a nice little bargain for the White Sox as he'll certainly make less than $1M big ones next season.

As a Sox fan, I love this deal.  Quentin will provide a little youth to an aging White Sox lineup and he's years away from testing free agent waters.

The only knock against Quentin is that while he'll likely be an above average corner outfielder next season (health permitting), he doesn't project as much of a superstar.

The Sox however, who received a .256/.322/.399 line from their leftfielders last season, will be ecstatic with any above average play at that position.

Just for kicks, Quentin's 2008 Bill James Handbook Projection looks like this:  .263/.341/.455 with 13 home runs in 380 AB's.

I personally feel that projection is a little light on workload and batting average.  For a guy that posted a MiLB batting average of .312, I expect a little better than the '08 Bill James Handbook.

Many have argued this winter's relatively weak free agent class would result in an offseason dominated by trades.

Just a day after Matt Garza was swapped for Delmon Young in a former top prospect super-trade, another former top prospect was traded, this time the Mets' promising outfielder Lastings Milledge.

The Mets sent Milledge to the Nationals today for catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church.

Like many around the baseball blogosphere, I'm a little shocked the Mets received so little.  Milledge only hit .272/.341/.446 on the year in a small sample of 184 AB's, but we're all aware of his tremendous talent and just how well he projects.

The same guy the Mets were thinking about trading for Dan Haren or Joe Blanton last January is now being traded for the likes of Schneider and Church.  How quickly things change.

I was very impressed with Jim Bowden when he acquired Wily Mo Pena from the Red Sox for cash considerations and a PTBNL; I feel this is yet another instance in which he has walked away with highway robbery.

Fangraphs recently made the 2008 Bill James Handbook projections available on their player cards, so let's take a look at how each player involved in the deal projects this upcoming season:

If you're a fan of the Bill James Handbook then it's difficult to defend Omar Minaya's decision to move Milledge.

Milledge and Church have strikingly similar projections whereas Schneider looks like he will once again carry out his reputation as a good glove, no hit catcher.

Maybe it's just me, but doesn't keeping Milledge and bringing back Paul Lo Duca sound a lot more intriguing than trading Milledge for Church and going with a catching tandem of Schneider and Johnny Estrada?

There's a good chance Milledge and Church produce at the same level next season however, Church doesn't present nearly as much upside, he's older and Milledge is farther away from reaching free agency.

Perhaps there were other "personal" issues that contributed to Minaya's decision to make this move, but from an analytical perspective I just can't defend it.  Hats off to Jim Bowden.

The night of October 26th, 2005 was an unforgettable night for myself as well as many citizens of Chicago.

That night the White Sox ended an 88-year drought sweeping the Houston Astros in the World Series to win their first championship in quite some time.

How the White Sox went about their business that season was a baseball representation of the South Side of the city:  The Sox were a blue-collar, hard working team that took on the name "grinders."

Perhaps nobody represented the White Sox "grinderball" style of play more than Scott Podsednik.  Podsednik wasn't by any means the White Sox most productive player that season, by sabermetric standards or not, but he quickly became a fan favorite particularly because of his ability to steal bases and score runs early in a ballgame.

Before the 2005 season, the ChiSox offense carried a reputation for being too one dimensional.  Many believed the Sox were too dependent on the longball and needed to integrate elements such as speed and the ability to move runners over via the bunt in their offensive attack.  In other words, "small ball" was the solution.

I don't want to turn this into a "big ball" vs. "small ball" rant, but Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen obviously agreed as they traded slugger Carlos Lee and a PTBNL to the Brewers for Podsednik and relief pitcher Luis Vizcaino.

A good number of White Sox fans (at least the ones I've encountered at the ballpark) view this trade as a success; after all, the Sox went on to win the World Series.  

But being the sabermetric blog that we are, we'll take a look at the trade from a statistical perspective to see just who came out on top.

The Trade

Here's how the trade broke down:

White Sox receive:  OF Scott Podsednik and RP Luis Vizcaino

Brewers receive:  OF Carlos Lee and 1B Travis Hinton (minor leagues)

Baseball Prospectus' Christina Kahrl offered her thoughts on the trade a few months after it was completed:

One aspect of the deal that cannot be ignored are the financials.  Just speculation on my part, but this deal may have been a disguised salary dump by the White Sox.  In trading Lee, Chicago saved around $6M with Lee's $8M going to Milwaukee and the Sox taking on Podsednik's $700K and Vizcaino's $1.3M.

Perhaps that extra $6M in Jerry Reinsdorf's pocketbook gave the Sox a bit more flexibility to sign Tadahito Iguchi (2-year/$4.95M), Orlando Hernandez (2-year/$8.0M) or even A.J. Pierzynski (one-year/$2.25M).

Focusing on the deal itself though, it appeared from the get-go that the Brewers we're clear winners.  Lee had just come off a season in which he hit .305/.366/.525 tying a career high in home runs (31) and setting career highs in OPS+ (127), EqA (.300) and WARP3 (8.8.).  Lee's plate discipline was always a bit sketchy however and his defense was never regarded as above average.  He was far from a perfect player or even a great player, but he was bringing power to a Brewer offense that was dead last in the NL in slugging percentage (.387) in 2004.

Podsednik had just come off a 2004 season in which he stole a ridiculous 70 bags at a success rate of 84%, but he hit just .244/.313/.364; poor by even center field standards.  His WARP3 that year was 3.7 wins.  Add in the fact Podsednik would move to a corner outfield spot, where offensive expectations are sky high, and one realizes the Sox we're really taking an offensive hit here.

Vizcaino had been one of baseball's unsung heroes in 2004 and if the Brewers were losing anything valuable in this deal it was his arm.  His WXRL that season of 2.750 was second among Milwaukee relievers and he was incredibly durable pitching 72 innings out of the bullpen.

Regardless, this trade looked like a major steal for Milwaukee at least by statistical standards.  Even though they were losing a pretty valuable arm out of the bullpen, they were acquiring one of the league's better offensive corner outfielders who was under contract for the next two seasons.

The Results

Here is how the White Sox and Brewers have fared from this deal in terms of WARP.  A couple of notes:  Travis Hinton's WARP is not included due to the fact he hasn't appeared in a major league ballgame.  Carlos Lee's 2006 WARP includes his time with the Milwaukee Brewers only.

To my great surprise, it appears this trade actually turned out pretty even.  Lee's WARP during his time with Milwaukee was a combined 8.2 wins above the replacement level player while Podsednik and Vizcaino combined to produce 8.6 wins.  If anything, the Sox may have fared a little better.

What hurt Lee's value so greatly was defense in left field that was almost unbearable to watch.  In 264 games with the Brewers, Lee's FRAA was -17 runs.

Offensively, his first season in Milwaukee was somewhat disappointing.  Lee no longer had the luxury of playing half of his games at the launching pad that is U.S. Cellular Field, and he hit only .265/.324/.487 in his first season with the Crew.  He WARP dropped a little over three wins from his previous season and his VORP dropped nearly 14 runs as well.

His 2006 season with Milwaukee was much better with the bat as he hit .286/.347/.549 in 435 at-bats.  Later that season Lee was traded to the Rangers along with prospect Nelson Cruz for Laynce Nix, Kevin Mench, Francisco Cordero, and Julian Cordero (minors).  At the time it looked like Milwaukee may have been a little shortchanged in the deal; Lee was having a very good offensive season and his name was drawing interest from multiple teams.  But given the re-emergence of Francisco Cordero last season, it looks like the Brewers received a pretty good package in return for their former corner outfielder.

Podsednik's first season with the White Sox was very up and down.  During the season's first half, he hit .294/.369/.344 stealing 44 bases at an 83% success rate.  During the second half, he hit .284/.326/.356 stealing 15 bases at a 52% success rate.  His second half slump may have been affected by a quad injury, but he clearly regressed down the stretch.  Despite struggles near the end of the season he remained a fan favorite and after his walk-off home run in game two of the World Series, he guaranteed the fact he'll never have to buy himself a beer at a bar again in Chicago.

Podsednik's following season once again featured injury problems and a very poor second half.  Pods was healthy during the season's first half hitting .276/.353/.391 in 312 AB's, but battled injuries in the second half hitting an awful .241/.296/.297 in 212 AB's.  It was during this time many began to believe Scotty Pods' future in Chicago was in doubt.  Kenny Williams searched frantically for a replacement corner outfielder the following winter, but came up empty and brought back Podsednik on the strength of a one-year/$2.9M contract.

As if it's become a re-occurring thing, Podsednik once again battled injuries throughout the 2007 season, this time making two trips to the DL and hitting .243/.299/.369.  The White Sox now have better options in the outfield and Podsednik's days at least as a starter in Chicago are now over.

Luis Vizcaino's tenure in Chicago didn't last very long at all as he wasn't one of Ozzie Guillen's favorite arms out of the bullpen.  Despite a very good season in Milwaukee during the 2004 season, Vizcaino wasn't trusted by Guillen or his staff and was rarely inserted in high leverage situations.  His WXRL dropped from 2.750 in 2004 to 0.292 in 2005.

He was traded the following along with then prospect Chris Young and Orlando Hernandez for Javier Vazquez.

Final Thoughts

It appears Lee's time in Milwaukee is done as well as Podsednik's and Vizcaino's time in Chicago.  Before I wrote this, I was almost certain the Brewers were huge winners in this deal, but after taking a look at the numbers; this trade was actually quite equal.

However, it must be said that those WARP numbers are based on both offense AND defense.  BP's Davenport Translations are questionable at times and the DT's think Lee's defense was quite awful.  While Lee is widely regarded as a defensively challenged corner outfielder, just how subpar his defense actually was is open to different interpretations.

Last week I took a look at five major free agent signings from last winter, comparing each players 2007 projections with their actual results.

Today I'll do more of the same looking at a five more signings.

Once again note hitters projections for Marcel, PECOTA and Actual include PA's whereas projections for Bill James, ZiPS, Chone include AB's.

Ted Lilly signs 4-year/$40M contract with Cubs:

Easily one of the best deals signed last winter.  For the first time in his career, Lilly pitched 200 or more innings and he set a career low in ERA (minimum 100 innings pitched) at 3.83; the latter possibly the result of a league change.  Lilly was the most productive Cub pitcher according to VORP and he was one of the better peripheral pitchers in the league; his FIP-ERA of 4.16 placed in the top 15th and his K/G of 8.0 placed in the top 10.  Whether or not his second time around in the NL, particularly the Central division, will be a bit more unforgiving is a mystery, but if his peripherals remain strong he should be awfully good again next season.

Barry Bonds signs one-year/$15.8M contract with Giants:

As most of us expected Bonds wasn't an everyday player, but he was still awfully productive.  Among players with at least 340 AB's, Bonds led all of baseball in on-base percentage by a very wide margin and he was the most productive Giant hitter according to VORP.  Those Giants have officially cut their ties with Bonds and he'll be headed to a new team this winter which is going to draw a ton of attention. DH'ing makes plenty of sense for Bonds and his knees and my guess is that he ends up in the American League.  Not playing the field may result in more trips the plate for Bonds which thus would increase his value.  Yeah, a trip to the AL makes a lot of sense.

Marcus Giles signs one-year/$3.2M deal contract Padres:

Giles' final year in Atlanta was a disappointing one given his performance during the previous three seasons, but he hit an all-time low last season with the Padres.  Giles wasn't productive at home or on the road and he missed various parts of July, August and September battling a knee injury.  Something to note is the fact Giles BABIP of .278 was a good 45 points lower than his expected BABIP of .323.  Adjust for that differential and Giles' line improves to .279/.349/.362 which isn't half-bad from a second baseman that typically plays gold glove caliber defense and half of his games at PETCO Park.  It might not be that preposterous for the Padres to pick up Giles $4.0M club option for next year.

Tom Glavine signs one-year/$10.5M contract with Mets:

Despite the fact Glavine "out-VORPed" his projection, it was largely an up and down year for the 41-year old.  PECOTA, ZiPS, Bill James, Marcel and Chone projected K/9's of 5.14, 4.94, 4.91, 5.30 and 5.02 respectively, but Glavine's actual K/9 of 4.00 was well below expectations and reached a dangerously low level.  With so many balls being put into play, Glavine needs a pretty good defense behind him to succeed on a regular basis and the Mets had one of the best defenses in baseball last season:  their defensive efficiency ratio of .707 was good for fourth in baseball.  By all accounts however, Glavine will not be returning to New York next season, so it's in his best interest to sign with a team that will put a good defense behind him.

Gary Matthews Jr. signs 5-year/$50M contract with Angels:

Gary Matthews Jr.'s 2006 season came out of nowhere.  As a 31-year old, he set career highs in every rate statistic (.313/.371/.495), home runs (19), WARP3 (7.2) and VORP (50.0).  Naturally, this was all done during his contract year and the Angels rewarded the centerfielder with a monster five-year deal.  PECOTA expected his VORP to drop nearly 35 runs and that's exactly what happened.  Matthews Jr. completely lost his line drive stoke, as his LD% dropped from 18.8% in 2006 to 12.9% in 2007 and his batting average clearly suffered.  If PECOTA's five-year valuation is as accurate as their 2007 projection, Matthews Jr. will be a replacement level centerfielder at the end of his five-year deal.

It's hard to believe the 2007 regular season has come to a close (excluding the Rockies/Padres one-game playoff).

Even though I followed a losing team this summer in the White Sox, it seems like the season just flew by.  Before we all know it, a World Champion will be crowned and we'll be talking about which free agents are headed where.

Speaking of free agents, last winter we saw a number of big money contracts signed.  The names Barry Zito, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee all come to mind.

With guys like Andruw Jones, Torri Hunter and almost certainly Alex Rodriguez set to test the market this upcoming winter, it should be a fun offseason, but let's take a look back at the deals that were signed prior to the 2007 season.

Who played above and beyond expectations?  Who faltered?  Which teams should be regretting giving that certain player a long-term contract?  

Let's take a look:

*Note:  Projections for Marcel and PECOTA include PA's whereas projections for Bill James, ZiPS, Chone and Actual include AB's.

Alfonso Soriano signs 8-year/$136M contract with Cubs:

For the most part Soriano is right were our projection systems expected him to be.  A trip to the disabled list cost Soriano a little playing time and the home run totals were just bit lower than most expectations, but the rate statistics were there.

Soriano's certainly an athletic player and his body should age well, but he doesn't really have any plate discipline skills to fall back on if his power or speed start to deteriorate.  Personally I view this season as a success for Soriano and I ultimately believe the majority of the years left on his eight-year contract will be fun ones, but the back end of this deal is reeling with both good and not so good possibilities.

Carlos Lee signs 6-year/$100M contract with Astros:

As a whole, Lee had a very good season for the Astros exceeding the expectations of most.  Like most of us expected, Lee hit much better at home (.344/.394/.581) compared to his performance on the road (.266/.310/.463), but his home run splits were not as extreme as his rate stats as he hit 17 homers at home compared to 15 on the road.  As far as defense is concerned, BP's Rate system says he was a below average defender (92) and his Zone Rating was dead last among National League left-fielders (.786) which isn't a good sign for a "heavier" outfielder entering his age 32 season next year.  I don't think there are too many statheads that think Lee is going to age well, but his first year was nonetheless a good start to his six-year deal.

J.D. Drew signs 5-year/$75M contract with Red Sox:

Back in December, Nate Silver explained just why Drew would struggle in 2007 citing the level of American League difficulty and the influx of left-handed pitching in the AL as two primary reasons.  Needless to say, Drew struggled mightily in the AL throughout most of the year and hit only .224/.285/.353 against southpaws.  His ability to hit for power may be deteriorating as evident of his HR/OF% which declined for the third season in a row and unless he turns things around next season, this might be remembered as one of the worst free agent contracts in recent memory.

Barry Zito signs 8-year/$126M contract with Giants:

After improving in each of his final three seasons with the Athletics, Zito hit rock bottom in the first year of his eight-year contract with the Giants.  He set career lows in VORP (25.5 runs), WARP3 (3.9 wins, ERA+ (96) and innings pitched (196.2).  On the bright side, his peripherals didn't worsen much and he was much better in the second half of the year (4.90 first-half ERA vs. 4.11 second-half ERA).  Given the projections of both Chone and Shandler (Bill James), I think it's safe to call Zito's 2007 a disappointing one.

Daisuke Matsuzaka signs 6-year/$52 M with Red Sox; Boston pays $51.11M bid for negotiating rights:

I wasn't able to dig up many 2007 projections for Matsuzaka, but we'll take what we have in PECOTA.  As a whole, Daisuke's rookie season was pretty good; he was second among Red Sox pitchers and rookie pitchers in VORP at 37.1 runs, but was shaky particularly down the stretch posting a 5.19 ERA in baseball's second half.  However, he is entering his age 27 season (the year typical players peak), and the ability to dominate is present as evident of the 8.9 K/G which ranked 6th in the American League.  Matsuzaka's main fault came with the home run ball and if the Sox coaching staff can correct this problem Daisuke's second go-round in the big leagues should be better than the first.

It looks like Matt Kemp is on the block again.

It's not unusual for Ned Colletti to go with the seasoned veteran over the youngster despite the fact both projections and talent alone may favor the younger player, which makes this rumor that much more believable.

Kemp is a very valuable baseball player.  He just turned 23 years of age, he's having a very good season at the major league level, he owns a .310/.358/.518 career MiLB line, he's generally regarded as a very good athlete, and he's years away from testing the free agency market.

Despite all these facts, rumors involving his name are circulating and this isn't the first instance.

On the season Kemp's hitting .331/.364/.509 with 10 home runs in 294 PA's.  Despite the small sample size of plate appearances, his VORP of 19.2 runs is higher than that of Andre Ethier (15.3), Juan Pierre (14.3) and Luis Gonzalez (15.1); Los Angeles' trio of starting outfielders.

MLBTradeRumors thinks the Dodgers could shop Kemp for a veteran third basemen or outfielder, but is it even worth it?  Better yet, how does Kemp project as a full time major league player?  For that, we'll turn to PECOTA.

The Projection

Here is Kemp's PECOTA five-year projection.  Note that the replacement level statistics are coming from the centerfield position.

An All-Star in the making?  Quite possible.

PECOTA projected a full seasons worth of PA's from Kemp and while he isn't going to rack up 600 or more of those on the season, his rate stats have been better than PECOTA projected.  Kemp's batting average has held up quite well on the season thanks to a .403 BABIP, but the power is there.

Kemp is projected as a solid five-win per season player over the next four years and PECOTA's MORP system values his full projection (including his projected 2007 season) at $70M+.  We already know he's not going to make anywhere near that much cash so he's certainly not someone you should be looking to deal.

Does this All-Star caliber projection include an All-Star list of top comparable players?  

The List of Similar Players

Here are Kemp's top ten comparable players courtesy of PECOTA:

Juan Encarnacion:

Probably not the guy you expected to appear as Kemp's #1 comp.  Encarnacion hasn't had an All-Star caliber career topping the 100 OPS+ mark only twice in seasons with at least 500 AB's.  His peak WARP3 mark is 5.0 wins.

Michael Coleman:

Never heard of Coleman?  I don't blame you.  A career minor leaguer, Coleman took 67 AB's in the show hitting .194/.203/.254.  Something tells me Kemp is in for better things.

Dee Brown:

No, not the former Illinois Basketball Player, Brown has seen seven stints in the major leagues; six of them with the Royals.  He's a career .233/.280/.333 hitter in 814 AB's.  Certainly not the most attractive looking top three comps.

Sammy Sosa:

That's better.  Sosa was arguably the most feared hitter in the game during the latter part of the nineties hitting 60 or more home runs in 1998, 1999 and 2001.  Sosa is currently fifth on the all-time home run list and despite aging terribly into his mid-thirties he's still a career .273/.344/.534 hitter.  Note that Sosa's peak years came in his early thirties.  

Ruben Mateo:

Another guy that just never made it as a full-time player.  Mateo spent six years in the majors with four different clubs racking up a total of 876 AB's during his career.  He was a career .250/.303/.386 hitter.

Vernon Wells:

Wells' has had a bit of an up and down career.  His age 24 and 27 seasons were excellent (WARP3's of 9.0 and 8.1 respectively) whereas his 25 and 26 seasons were a bit disappointing given expectations (WARP3's of 5.8 and 6.7).  He signed a seven-year extension with the Blue Jays last winter only to hit .245/.304/.402 this season in 584 AB's.  Shoulder surgery had ended his year.

Orlando Cepeda:

Cepeda had a solid, but bumpy major league career.  His peak years came during his age 21 through 26 seasons in which he posted a combined WARP3 of 47.4 wins.  Despite tailing off a bit at the end of his career, Cepeda was a career .301 EqA hitter.

Larry Hisle:

Hisle had a handful of seasons in which he was an everyday player; his peak years coming during his age 29 through 31 seasons in which he accumulated a total of 21.4 wins above the replacement level player.  A career .273/.347/.452 hitter, Hisle accumulated 500+ AB's in a season only 5 times throughout his 14 year career.

Corey Hart:

Hart's currently enjoying his first full major league season after a strong MiLB career in which he hit .299/.357/.498.  The 25-year old is currently having a very nice year with Milwaukee hitting .292/.350/.524 with 22 homers in 490 AB's.  His WARP3 is 7.8 wins.

Alex Escobar:

A classic example of a top prospect that just never made it.  Escobar looked like a star in the making when he hit .310/.393/.584 for the Columbia Bombers as a 19-year old in the Sally League, but his major league career just hasn't materialized.  Escobar has seen major league time with three different ballclubs hitting .258/.328/.415 in 388 career AB's.

Other notable top comps include Carlos Beltran and Frank Robinson.

As a whole you see some good and you see some not so good.  Guys like Sosa, Wells, Cepeda and even Hart give hope that Kemp has the chance to become a solid major league producer, whereas guys like Coleman, Brown and Mateo let you know anything, even the not so good, is possible for the future.

Final Thoughts

I don't want to get too ahead of myself when it comes to advocating Kemp as a future All-Star lock.  The talent is certainly there, but work needs to be done.  His patience at the plate is sketchy at times and as I mentioned earlier, the .403 BABIP isn't going to hold up over an entire season.

You just can't ignore that projection however.  The ability for Kemp to turn his talents into results is going to take plenty of work on his part and on the part of the Dodgers coaching staff, but PECOTA thinks things are going to work out.

Dodger fans know Ned Colletti isn't afraid to deal a young gun.  Colletti has already dealt Joel Guzman, Sergio Pedroza, Chuck Tiffany and Edwin Jackson during his tenure with the Dodgers and while none these players are current major league stars, they were one time top prospects like Kemp.

As a PECOTA fan, I undoubtedly believe it's in the best interest of the Dodgers to keep Kemp and give him a full-time job in the major leagues; that projection is simply awesome.

Given Colletti's past however, a deal including Kemp would not surprise me.

A little over a week ago, I went on a little statistical rant regarding how silly it is to use the 100 RBI mark as a benchmark of a good season.

Today I'll do more if the similar, this time attacking the theme a pitcher's win-loss record is the best way to evaluate his performance over a given year.

How many times have you listened to someone rave about how this pitcher deserves to win the Cy Young Award simply because he's won the most games in the league?  Or how that pitcher just always finds a way to win?

Most casual fans have come to realize a pitcher shouldn't be evaluated on wins and losses alone.  Measures such as ERA and the amount of innings a pitcher accumulates in a season are certainly factors fans take into consideration when evaluating a pitcher while publications such as Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times feature metrics such as ERA+, FIP, VORP and Support Neutral Statistics.

Even with such advancements in baseball's statistical world, I can't help but believe at pitcher's win-loss record is still something fans overrate.

To play the devil's advocate, let's take a look at the best sub-.500 pitcher seasons over the last ten full years.

The VORP figures of these pitchers such be lower than the figures of our sub-100 RBI men; even with factors such as poor run support or just plain bad luck, a pitcher should win more games than he loses in a given season if he pitches well.

It's still something worth checking out however.  Just how good can a pitcher be even when he loses more games than he wins? Let's take a look:

*Note:  Each pitcher to make the list must have pitched at least 150 innings that season.

1.  2004:  Ben Sheets (12-14 record, 70.7 VORP):

Despite the fact his record was two games under .500, Ben Sheets was easily one of the best National League starters in 2004.  His VORP of 70.7 runs was the third best mark in all of baseball (second in the NL), and his FIP-ERA of 2.53 was the second lowest mark in the game.  His WARP3 that season of 9.4 wins is far and away his current career high.

2.  1996:  Roger Clemens (10-13 record, 64.6 VORP):

Not the best season of Clemens' career, but still a darn good one.  His VORP of 64.6 runs was good for 11th in baseball and his ERA+ of 142 was good for fourth in the AL.  His WARP3 that season was 10.2 wins.

3.  2000:  Mike Mussina (11-15 record, 63.9 VORP):

In his final season with the Orioles, Mussina left Baltimore with a bang.  Despite the 11-15 record, Moose was the 8th best pitcher in baseball according to VORP at 63.9 runs and his WARP3 of 9.0 runs is the fourth highest mark of his career.

4.  2000:  Curt Schilling (11-12 record, 61.9 VORP):

Schilling was just a game under .500 in 2000, but BP's expected wins system says he should have won closer to 15 games (combined between Philadelphia and Arizona).  His VORP of 61.9 runs was the tenth best mark in baseball that season.

5.  2004:  Livan Hernandez (11-15 record, 61.7 VORP):

Hernandez was a full FOUR games under .500 thanks to an Expos team that give him an average of 3.95 runs of support every time he took the mound.  His VORP of 61.7 runs that year was the ninth best mark in baseball and his WARP3 of 9.5 wins is a current career high.

6.  1997:  Kevin Appier (9-13 record, 60.8 VORP):

Like Hernandez, Appier was a full four games under .500 in 1997, but that doesn't mean he wasn't a productive pitcher.  His WARP3 of 8.0 wins was the fourth highest mark of his career and his VORP of 60.8 runs was good for 13th in baseball.

7.  1999:  Brad Radke (12-14 record, 60.0 VORP):

Back when Brad Radke wasn't pitching with an injured shoulder, he was putting together some pretty productive years; his high point coming in 1999.  His VORP 60.0 runs was good for 8th in baseball and his WARP3 of 8.9 wins is a career high.

8.  1996:  Curt Schilling (9-10 record, 59.7 VORP):

Curt Schilling pops up on the list for the second time with his 1996 season.  Schilling only won 9 games in 1996, but BP's expected wins system says he should have won closer to 13.  Schilling's VORP of 59.7 runs was good for 18th in baseball that year.

9.  1997:  Ismael Valdez (10-11 record, 58.8 VORP):

Hey, remember this guy?  Valdez had a nice season in 1997 posting a career high in ERA+ at 146 and a WARP3 of 6.1 wins; the second highest mark of his career.  His VORP of 58.8 runs was good for 18th in baseball.

10.  1998:  Francisco Cordova (13-14 record, 55.6 VORP):

Cordova's career was short-lived, but his 1998 season was a pretty good one.  His VORP of 55.6 runs was good for 13th in baseball and his WARP3 of 6.5 wins is his single season high he accumulated throughout his five year career.

As expected the VORP marks were a bit lower than that of our sub-100 RBI men, but these seasons were still quite good.

None of the VORP mark dipped below 55.0 runs.  To give you a perspective of that figure think of Chien-Ming Wang in 2006.  Not bad huh?

Once again, a pitcher's win-loss record isn't completely useless, but this is just more evidence that you don't need gaudy win totals to have a good season.  Heck, you can even have a sub-.500 season and still have a productive year.

Jason Kendall made headlines in Chicago this past week claiming he would like to re-sign with the Cubs following the 2007 season:

The Cubs acquired Kendall from the Athletics this past July when the Rob Bowen experiment failed.  Bowen of course was traded for Michael Barrett in a move likely caused by Barrett's altercation with Carlos Zambrano.

That's three different starting catchers for the Cubs this season who combined have yielded a .651 OPS; the second worst mark in the National League.

Jim Hendry has done his fair share of wheeling and dealing this summer looking for an offensive catcher to replace Barrett, but the answer may have been within the system the entire time.

Geovany Soto is a 24-year old catcher in the Cubs organization who had just come off a .269/.351/.383 Triple-A season before the year began.  That line certainly doesn't look awful coming from a catcher with a reputation of having a strong arm, but when you consider this was all done in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, you start getting the idea Soto's future might be suited in a limited role.

He's exploded this season however, hitting .349/.418/.648 with 26 home runs in 385 Triple-A at-bats; his home run total is a career high by a whopping 20 dingers.  His wOBA of .444 leads all PCL players.

Was it really necessary for the Cubs to acquire both Bowen and Kendall when the 24-year Soto is having quite a season.  Kevin Goldstein certainly didn't think so; here's what he wrote in his Monday Morning Ten Pack back in July:

Is it just me or does this seem so Cub-like?  

Second baseman Eric Patterson, a PECOTA favorite, is playing very well in Triple-A hitting .297/.362/.455.  He's blocked by Mark DeRosa and the remainder of his three-year deal.

Felix Pie is blocked by Jacque Jones.  Cliff Floyd is chosen over Matt Murton.

The Cubs are developing a pattern of going with the seasoned veteran despite the fact better and cheaper solutions may be available within the system.  Perhaps the team hasn't gotten over Corey Patterson's Cub experience just yet.

Jason Kendall will certainly be considered as a possible solution next season for the Cubs.  He's hit much better than he did in Oakland since joining Chicago hitting .288/.381/.390 in 146 at-bats, but his .771 OPS isn't anything special.

Even if the Cubs consider another to be free agent such as Paul Lo Duca or Jorge Posada, the idea of saving your money and going with the in house solution sounds better.

I'm jumping on the Geovany Soto bandwagon and I hope Jim Hendry follows me this winter.  

No post today, but plenty of good reading around the web.

Over at The Bard's Room, MVN's White Sox website, I took a look at ChiSox prospect Jack Egbert who I believe is a sleeper prospect.  The Brandon Webb comparison seems like a stretch, but he is Egbert's top PECOTA Comp.

Occasional BtB contributor John Beamer examines whether Andruw Jones' relatively poor season is going to hurt his contract chances next winter.

Marc's latest player profile is up:  Josh Barfield.

Despite plenty of advances in the analytical side of baseball over the years, I still continue to hear the benchmark of a good season is 100 RBI's.

Watch a baseball game on television or go to a game in person and I bet you'll hear announcers and fans alike talking out how "this guy's on pace for over 100 RBI's this year" or how "that guy's been a real good RBI-guy this season."

There is something about 100 RBI's in a season that still puts fans in a frenzy.  Regardless of a player's rate stats, home park, the player's hitting in front of them or any other reason, many people still believe if a player equals or eclipses the 100 RBI total he has had a good season.

While many fans still abide by this notion, others have acknowledged the fact RBI's tell you very little about a hitter's true ability when compared to other statistics.

How many RBI's a player accumulates is very dependent on the hitters hitting in front of them, or their number of RBI opportunities.  Even the most mediocre of hitters can accumulate 100 RBI's in a season if he has a couple of solid on-base threats hitting in front of him.

I don't want to totally discredit the RBI.  In extreme cases, like when Miguel Tejada racked up 150 RBI's in 2004, you can tell a player had a very good year just by looking at their RBI total alone.

But plenty of other statistics in the game are more useful and even the most casual baseball fans have started to realize this over the years.

Because I wasn't creative enough to think of anything cool for today's piece, I figured I'd give praise to those who have had excellent seasons over the past decade, but weren't fortunate enough to equal or eclipse the sacred 100 RBI mark.

Let's take a look:

1.  2003:  Barry Bonds (90 RBI, 105.9 VORP):

The best non 100 RBI season we've seen in recent memory.  Bonds only drove in 90 runs in 2003, but he hit .341/.529/.749 along with 45 big flies that year.  He led all of baseball in VORP and his WARP3 that season was a ridiculous 13.4 wins.  

2.  1996:  Chuck Knoblauch (72 RBI, 94.0 VORP):

Despite knocking in only 72 runs, Knoblauch hit .348/.448/.517 with 16 homers for the '96 Twins.  He lead the team in WARP3 by a large margin with 12.5 wins even though both Paul Molitor and Marty Cordova each eclipsed the 100 RBI mark.  Only Alex Rodriguez had a higher VORP than Knoblauch that season.

3.  2000:  Nomar Garciaparra (96 RBI, 93.8 VORP):

Garciaparra came close to the famed 100 RBI mark in 200 and missed out by only four runs.  Regardless, he had an outstanding season hitting .372/.434/.599 with 21 home runs all done as a shortstop.  His WARP3 that season was 11.4 wins, the high mark of his career, and he was fourth in baseball in VORP.

4.  1998:  Craig Biggio (88 RBI, 82.3 VORP):

Biggio's 1998 season might not even be the best non 100 RBI campaign he's had over his career.  He hit .325/.403/.503 with 20 home runs all done at second base.  His WARP3 that year of 10.1 is the third highest single-season mark of his career and his VORP was fifth in baseball.

5.  1996:  Barry Larkin (89 RBI, 81.7 VORP):

Quite possibly Larkin's finest offensive season, he hit .298/.410/.567 with a career high 33 home runs for the Reds all done without 100 RBI's.  His EqA of .325 was a career best and his WARP3 was 10.8 wins.  His VORP that season ranked ninth in all of baseball.

6.  1997:  Craig Biggio (81 RBI, 81.5 VORP):

Biggio appears on the list for the second time, but this season might have been his best non 100 RBI year.  His VORP of 81.5 runs was a shade lower than that of his 1998 mark, but his WARP3 of 13.1 wins was a full three wins better and the high point of his career.  His VORP of 81.5 runs was sixth best in baseball.

7.  1996:  Roberto Alomar (94 RBI, 81.0 VORP):

Alomar had a fantastic season with both the bat and the glove hitting .328/.411/.527 with a career high 22 home runs along with playing gold glove-caliber defense (108 Rate).  His WARP3 of 11.7 wins was his second highest single season mark of his career and his VORP of 81.0 runs ranked eleventh in baseball.

8.  2001:  Rich Aurilia (97 RBI, 80.8 VORP):

Aurilia missed the 100 RBI mark by only three runs in 2001 but managed to set career highs in every rate statistic hitting .324/.369/.572 along with setting career highs in EqA (.315) and WARP3 (12.2).  His Rate of 108 was very good coming from a second basemen and his VORP of 80.8 runs was good for ninth in baseball.

9.  2006:  Derek Jeter (79 RBI, 79.2 VORP):

In my opinion Derek Jeter was robbed of the AL MVP Award last season and that might very well be because his RBI total wasn't quite "sufficient" enough.  Whatever the case, Jeter hit .343/.417/.483 with 14 homers and played solid defense (100 Rate).  His WARP3 of 12.0 wins is a current career high and his VORP of 79.2 runs was good for fourth in baseball and best in the AL.

10.  2000:  Edgar Alfonzo (94 RBI, 78.3 VORP):

The tenth best non 100 RBI season over the last decade, Alfonzo truly had a "one-hit wonder" type season hitting .324/.425/.542 with 25 home runs.  He didn't come close to his 2000 EqA (.325) and WARP3 (11.9) at any time before of following his breakout season and his VORP of 78.3 runs was good for thirteenth in baseball.

As we can see 100 RBI's aren't needed for a player to have a good season.  In fact, 100 RBI's aren't needed for a player to have an outstanding season.

Every player listed posted VORP's better than 75 runs and WARP3's better than 10 wins.

It's time to put the 100 RBI threshold to bed if it already hasn't been.  I feel dumber when people tell me "Player X" is a good player but just doesn't drive in enough runs.  You don't need to rack up gaudy RBI totals to excel in this game.

The year 2000 was a very special year in baseball for Jason Giambi.  

It was his fifth full season in the big leagues and he lead the Oakland Athletics to their first division title in eight years.  On a personal note he set career highs in home runs (43), batting average (.333), on-base percentage (.476), slugging percentage (.647) and OPS+ (188).  His efforts were strong enough to win him the American League Most Valuable Player Award.

Since Giambi admitted to using steroids many baseball fans have called his winning the 2000 A.L. MVP Award into question.  Some believe Giambi should be stripped of the award given the fact he confessed to using performance-enhancing drugs, that he simply does not deserve such an honor.

While stripping Giambi of the award would be just plain silly, I don't necessarily believe he was the most deserving player to win it at the time.

The year 2000 was also a very special year in baseball for Pedro Martinez.

While his Boston Red Sox would not reach the postseason, Martinez had a very good season.  Better yet, he had a historically good season.

We'll get into the historical aspect of Martinez' season a bit later; let's first take a look at things on the surface.  

Martinez went 18-6 for the Red Sox that season, but more importantly posted a microscopic 1.74 ERA in 217.0 innings.  He struck out 284 batters that year and received every single first place vote for the A.L. Cy Young Award winning it for the second time in his career.

There was no question Martinez was the clear favorite to win the Cy Young Award and he did so completely eliminating the competition.  

But was his 2000 season MVP worthy?  Let's take a look at how the voting shaped out.  Below is a list of the finishers in the race for the 2000 A.L. MVP Award along with their respective WARP's that season.  Giambi of course tops the list because he won the award:

Martinez finished fifth at the voting polls that year, but from a WARP perspective you couldn't find to many players that could hold a candle to his production outside of Alex Rodriguez.

Pedro's WARP of 14.3 wins tops the list and is the highest single season mark he has accumulated over his illustrious career.

Let's take things a step further.  Pedro's season in 2000 was truly special for a few reasons; let's take a look at them:

*His adjusted ERA+ of 285 that season was the second highest single season mark ever posted in baseball history.

*His RA+ of 293 was the highest single season mark ever posted by a pitcher with at least 150 innings pitched. (Hat Tip:  Mind Game/Jay Jaffe).

*His Runs Prevented mark of 84.7 runs is the fourth highest single season total ever accumulated.  (Hat Tip:  Mind Game/Jay Jaffe).

To put in simple terms, Martinez' 2000 season might have been the great single season ever pitched in baseball history.  That's definitely something you could argue, but there's plenty of evidence supporting this one was one of the great ones.

For such an outstanding season, I would argue Pedro wasn't only the league's most valuable pitcher, he was also the league's most valuable player.

I've gotten into detail about such cases in which a pitcher might be the most deserving MVP candidate, but he of course comes up empty.

In cases such as Clemens' 1997 season and Martinez' 2000 season, biases against pitchers winning the MVP award need to be ignored.

Pedro Martinez might be the greatest pitcher ever.  Maybe not the most valuable, but in terms of greatness we might not ever see a pitcher of his kind for quite a while.  It's a shame he's never won an MVP award, especially given the historically outstanding season he had back in 2000.

On June 28th, the Milwaukee Brewers woke up probably feeling pretty good.

There were plenty of reasons for the Crew and their fans to be happy:  They had just completed a sweep of Houston Astros, they had won their 8th game in nine contests, they were 7.5 games up on the second place Cubs, fourteen games over .500 and their playoff odds were quite strong at 83.5%.

It looked like Milwaukee was a virtual lock to make their first postseason appearance since 1982.

Flash forward two months later and the Brewers are fighting for their playoff lives.  As of Thursday, before their game against Chicago, Milwaukee is 66-66 sitting 1.5 games back of those Cubs.  Making things worse is the fact the Cardinals have decided to play good baseball and have jumped into the N.L. Central mix; they trail the Brewers by a single game.

What the heck happened to the Brewers and can they catch the Cubs in the incredibly weak N.L. Central?

Let's take a look:

The Struggles

Here is a look at how Brewers pitchers have fared throughout the season.  The numbers are separated in two rows:  Opening Day stretching to June 28th and June 29th stretching to August 29th.

As we can see, Brewers pitchers have struggled a bit since June 29th.  Brewers' arms yielded a .258/.319/.404 line from Opening Day to June 28th, but have yielded an OPS nearly 80 points higher since the 29th.

What about the hitters?

Milwaukee's offensive splits aren't nearly as extreme as their pitching splits, but the Brewers offense has regressed a bit over the last two months. Every rate statistic has declined, but the team's home run frequency has slightly improved.

To get a better idea as to why the Brewers have struggled, let's take a look at just who has struggled over the past couple of months:

Chris Capuano:

April 2nd to June 28th:  .261/.334/.404 against, 38.9 AB/HR

June 29th to August 29th:  .309/.370/.516 against, 22.4 AB/HR

Perhaps nobody on the team illustrates the Brewers' recent struggles better than Chris Capuano.  Cappy started the season off well pitching 28 innings in April posting a 3.21 ERA, but it's all gone downhill since then.  An injury-plagued June followed by awful months of July and August have sent Capuano to the Brewers bullpen.  In 26.2 August innings, he has an 8.10 ERA.

Claudio Vargas:

April 2nd to June 28th:  .275/.340/.484 against, 20.4 AB/HR

June 29th to August 29th:  .307/.372/.479 against, 24.0 AB/HR

As our own J.M. Barten pointed out this Tuesday, Claudio Vargas has one of the best winning percentages in baseball despite the fact he hasn't pitched very well at all on the year.  Hitters are getting on base at a .372 clip when he's taken the mound over the past two months and he's been rocked this August to the tune of a 9.00 ERA in 22 innings.  When (or if) Vargas returns to the rotation is still a question mark; he was placed on the 15-day DL five days ago with a lower back strain.

Derrick Turnbow:

April 2nd to June 28th:  .183/.275/.260 against, 65.5 AB/HR

June 29th to August 29th:  .171/.344/.276 against, 38.0 AB/HR

Despite a tough May, Turnbow was very difficult to throughout the beginning portion of the season holding hitters to a .183/.275/.260 line.  What's hurt Turnbow over the last two months is poor command; he's walked 18 hitters 21.2 innings over the last two months and posted a 6.10 ERA in July.  Turnbow's still an effective pitcher with an outstanding strikeout rate (11.77 K/9), but sloppy control often keeps Brewers fans on the edge of their seats.

Francisco Cordero:

April 2nd to June 28th:  .175/.250/.208 against, 0.0 AB/HR

June 29th to August 29th:  .274/.333/.370 against, 73.0 AB/HR

Let's face it, we should have expected a little regression from Cordero when July began.  Coco racked up 22 straight saves before blowing his first on June 9th and entered the All-Star break with a 2.86 ERA in 34.2 innings.  He's been effective over the past two months, but he's blown 4 saves since June 29th.  The Brewers have lost each of those games in which he's blown the save.

Matt Wise:

April 2nd to June 28th:  .216/.252/.347 against, 40.3 AB/HR
 

June 29th to August 29th:  .357/.430/.571 against, 35.0 AB/HR

Wise was one of the Brewers better arms out of the bullpen when the year began, but hitters have been posting Pujols-like rate statistics against him over the last couple of months.  Wise has a 6.17 ERA in 11.2 innings since the All-Star break.

Johnny Estrada:

April 2nd to June 28th:  .286/.307/.437, 35.0 AB/HR
 

June 29th to August 29th:  .266/.282/.343, 143.0 AB/HR

Estrada has never been much of on-base threat this season, but his performance over the last two months of the year has been exceptionally awful, particularly in the power department.  He's hitting .243/.267/.287 in 115 post All-Star at-bats.

J.J. Hardy:

April 2nd to June 28th:  .281/.339/.510, 16.2 AB/HR
 

June 29th to August 29th:  .275/.310/.420, 38.6 HR/AB

Hardy looked like a potential MVP candidate after he hit .325/.355/.605 with nine home runs in 114 May at-bats, but he's regressed quite a bit since then.  Over the last two months, his home run frequency has plummeted and he's not showing much patience; he's walked a total of seven times since the All-Star break.

Geoff Jenkins:

April 2nd to June 28th:  .277/.344/.505, 16.8 AB/HR
 

June 29th to August 29th:  .245/.309/.483, 21.0 AB/HR

Remember the Geoff Jenkins of 2005?  The Geoff Jenkins that hit .292/.375/.513 even with struggles against left-handers?  It looked like we were getting that Geoff Jenkins back this year, but he too has struggled mightily getting on-base as of late and he still can't hit left-handed pitching.

Bill Hall:

April 2nd to June 28th:  .271/.339/.455, 29.6 AB/HR
 

June 29th to August 29th:  .225/.268/.380, 43.0 AB/HR

What's worse than an underachieving Bill Hall?  How about a Bill Hall performing worse than an underachieving Bill Hall?  The first few months of Hall's season were quite disappointing given his outstanding 2006 campaign and he hasn't done much to resurrect this year over the past couple of months.  He's hitting for a .644 OPS since the All-Star break.

Now I don't want to sound completely negative here, there are still plenty of players keeping Milwaukee in this race.

Prince Fielder hasn't slowed down a bit hitting for a .945 OPS since the All-Star break, while Ryan Braun has destroyed what once was a black hole at third base for the Brew Crew hitting .332/.376/.641 with 25 long ones in 340 AB's.  He's the hot pick to reel in this season's N.L. Rookie of the Year Award.  Gabe Gross, who's hitting for an OPS near .800, has been solid off the bench and Ben Sheets' victory against the Cubs in his return from the D.L. must have been a breath of fresh air for Brewer fans.

Regardless of the Sheets' and the Fielder's however, there are a number of struggling players within the lineup and in the starting rotation that need to pick up the slack if this team is going to play October baseball.

Final Thoughts

Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds report currently gives Milwaukee a 1 in 4 chance of making the playoffs at 26%; quite a downfall from the 83.5% their odds once were.

Even with such a smaller chance of making the playoffs, you just can't count them out yet.  Sure, the Cubs are a better team.  The Cubs have the better record, better Pythagorean Record and their run differential is 73 runs better than that of Milwaukee.  But you just can't count out the Brewers quite yet.  Not in the N.L. Central.

Something to keep an eye on is Milwaukee's final week of the season when they'll start a seven-game home stand against fellow playoff hopefuls St. Louis and San Diego.  Despite their recent struggles, Milwaukee has the best home record in the N.L. at 40-25.  It's certainly a point in their favor that their final seven games of the season will be played at Miller Park.  

When thinking of the most important member of a team's bullpen, one pitcher always seems to come to mind:  The Closer.

Closers are typically the pitchers who pitch in the highest leverage situations and rack up the gaudiest save totals.

I tend to agree with the notion that closers are the most important pitcher in a team's bullpen.  Guys like Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Francisco Rodriguez aren't great pitchers just because of their save totals; they strike hitters out, keep runs off the board and their managers use them accordingly.

A bullpen however is assembled with more than just a closer.

Enter the Set-Up Man.  These are the guys that usually don't pitch in the ninth-inning and often set the table for the closer to collect the fame in the save.

Sure, these pitchers don't rack up the save totals, but many are key parts to their bullpen.  In fact, many of these pitchers often out-produce major league closers in many metrics such as WXRL and Adjusted Runs Prevented.  

Let's take a look at baseball's best non-closers this season:

Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs:

A position player turned starting pitcher turned relief pitcher, it appears Carlos Marmol has found the role that suits him best.  Ryan Dempster leads all Cub pitchers in saves with 21, but it's Marmol that's been the team's most effective and dominant pitcher out of the bullpen this season. His fastball-slider combo is very similar to that of a healthy Kerry Wood and that seems like an accurate comparison given the fact Marmol is striking out 12.27 hitters per nine innings.  To give one an idea as to why saves don't always accurately measure a pitcher's effectiveness, Marmol leads all Cub pitchers in WXRL (2.600) and ARP (26.9) despite the fact he has only one save on the year.

Rafael Betancourt, Cleveland Indians:

How good of a season is Rafael Betancourt having?  Good enough to place in the top three in WXRL.  Betancourt doesn't have a single save this season, but he's third in baseball in WXRL (4.768) and second in ARP (28.5).  His control this season has been outstanding (0.90 BB/9) and his ERA+ (294) is sixth among both qualified and unqualified pitchers.  Sure, ERA+ isn't the most effective to evaluate a pitcher with only 60 innings pitched, but there's no doubting Betancourt is having an outstanding season.

Hideki Okajima, Boston Red Sox:

Though Daisuke Matsuzaka has been Boston's most valuable Japanese import from last winter, Okajima's isn't too far behind in terms of total value.  Okajima has been nothing short of a huge success for the Red Sox this summer as he leads the team in both WXRL (4.453) and ARP (27.3).   It's quite difficult to pitch in the ninth inning of a close game when your teammate is Jonathan Papelbon, but Okajima has been just as effective, if not more effective this season.  Okajima also leads all of baseball in ERA+ (393).

Tony Pena, Arizona Diamondbacks:

A strong National League Rookie of the Year Candidate, Pena's first season in the big leagues has been exceptionally good.  He's currently third in the majors in WXRL (4.471) and eleventh in ARP (21.0) despite the fact he may be benefitting from a little good fortune.  He's striking out 6.27 hitters per nine innings, nothing special from a relief pitcher, and his BABIP of .228 is well below the league average.  Still, hats off to Pena whose probably been the team's most effective pitcher out of the bullpen.

Heath Bell, San Diego Padres:

Always long on potential, Bell has seemingly found a home in San Diego after a disappointing tenure with the Mets.  PECOTA Park can work wonders on both groundball and flyball pitchers, but Bell has been outstanding on the road (1.82 ERA in 39.2 innings) this year and he's blossomed into one of baseball's top set-up men.  His WXRL of 3.955 is ninth among major league pitchers and best among Padres hurlers while his ARP of 23.4 runs is sixth in the league and also best on the Pads.  Like the other pitchers featured on this list, Bell has rarely pitched in the ninth inning with a three-run lead or less; he has one save on the year.

Pat Neshek, Minnesota Twins:

Neshek's hardly the most overpowering pitcher in baseball, but his deceptive Chad Bradford-type delivery is yielding big-time results.  Though he's 22nd in the majors in WXRL (3.138), his ARP of 23.0 runs is seventh in the majors.  More importantly, Neshek tweaked his delivery before the year began eliminating his large-platoon split against left-handed hitters; he's holding lefties to a .145/.250/.276 line this season.

Matt Guerrier, Minnesota Twins:

To get a perspective of just how good Guerrier has been this season, take into account his VORP of 33.5 runs is a better figure than that of Carlos Zambrano, John Maine, Ian Snell, Derek Lowe, Felix Hernandez and Gil Meche.  His ARP of 23.7 is fifth among major league pitchers and he's a big reason the Twins have the seventh best bullpen according to WXRL (10.444).

Brandon Lyon, Arizona Diamondbacks:

Lyon's currently 11th in the majors in WXRL at 3.785, but like his teammate Tony Pena, he too might be benefitting from a little good fortune. Lyon's K/9 of 4.73 is well below the league average and he's stranding nearly 75% of the batters he inherits.  

The Diamondbacks have the second best record in the league thanks largely in part to the fact they're 39-22 in close games.  They're bullpen, which by the way ranks first in WXRL at 12.296, is a big reason why they've been so good in close games.  Despite what looks like good fortune riding on the side of both Pena and Lyon, they've both been getting the job done in big situations.

Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals:

Did anyone see this type of season coming from Franklin?  PECOTA certainly didn't, projecting a 5.31 ERA in 65 innings.  

Not only has the former starter been durable this season, he's already pitched 64.2 innings, he's also been surprisingly effective posting a 1.95 ERA during that tenure.  His ARP of 20.3 runs is good for 13th in the league and his VORP of 26.2 runs is higher than that of Doug Davis, Tom Glavine and other major league relievers including Takashi Saito, Bill Wagner and Jonathan Papelbon.

Other notable set-up men include set-up men performing at a high level include Kevin Cameron (21.4 ARP), Peter Moylan (20.0 ARP), C.J. Wilson (19.9 ARP), Chad Qualls (2.906 WXRL), Zack Greinke (3.112 WXRL) and Casey Janssen (2.881 WXRL).

Of the top ten leaders in WXRL this season, four of them have less than five saves on the season.

There's plenty of proof, and metrics for that matter, that while a team's closer often receives the most recognition out of a team's bullpen, other members of a bullpen are vital parts to the success of a ballclub.

After extending Mark Buehrle to a below market 4-year/$56M deal, the White Sox locked up another component to their 2005 World Series Championship Team agreeing to a two-year extension with right fielder Jermaine Dye.  

Dye is set to receive $9.5M in 2008 and $11.5M in 2009.  The deal also includes a mutual option for the 2010 season.

Dye signed a two-year deal with the Sox prior to the 2005 season and immediately paid his share of the bill.  He was the 2005 World Series MVP and he followed his championship season up with an MVP-caliber year in 2006.

The Sox picked up Dye's $6M club option for the 2007 season in a no-brainer type move and have received mixed results on the year.  Dye's first half was nothing like his 2005 and 2006 seasons, but he's heated up quite a bit since the All-Star break perhaps convincing the Sox he was worth an extension.

Let's take a look at what the Sox can expect from Dye over the next couple of seasons.  The guaranteed portion of Dye's extension runs into his age 35 season, so there clearly is risk in this deal.

What He's Done

Here is a look at what Dye has done over the past three seasons:

Dye's last season with the Oakland A's, that being 2004, didn't help his cause of reeling in anything close to a long-term deal as he signed a two-year contract (club option for the third year included) with the White Sox worth $10.15M.

The general consensus among many baseball fans was that the broken leg Dye sustained during the 2001 ALDS would severely limit his durability and mobility throughout the rest of his career and that he would never produce the way he did in Kansas City in his mid-twenties.

His first season with the White Sox however was quite good.  It was the first time he had slugged .500 or better since 2000 and his WARP of 4.5 wins was his highest figure also since 2000.

His second season was even better; MVP-caliber.  Dye hit .315/.385/.622, setting career highs in slugging percentage (.622), OPS+ (152), WARP3 (10.4) and home runs (44).

His season was, without a doubt one, of the biggest surprises of the year.  His 2005 season was resurgent, but nobody expected the 32-year old corner outfielder to hit the way he did as he placed fifth in A.L. MVP voting.  His VORP of 64.6 runs was nearly 40 runs higher than that of his previous season and given the fact he was entering his age 33 season in 2007 it was only natural to expect regression.

The Projection

Here is Dye's five-year PECOTA forecast prior to the 2007 season:

As expected, PECOTA saw a significant decrease in production coming from Dye this year; a VORP drop of 40+ runs and a WARP drop of nearly three full wins.

PECOTA was right in predicting Dye would regress, he's just done so in far more extreme fashion.  He's hitting .245/.309/.488 on the year, his VORP a mere 8.6 runs.

To be fair there are two sides of the story here.  Dye has battled quadriceps problems throughout the year and a DL stint in late June might have been what the doctor ordered, he's hitting .306/.384/.657 since the All-Star break equaling his home run total in nearly half the amount of at-bats.

The sample size is small (134 post All-Star AB's), but my guess is this turnaround had quite a bit to do with the White Sox decision to extend his contract.

Dye's projected performance in his 2008 and 2009 seasons doesn't look disastrous, but note the projected decrease in playing time during his age 35 season.

For a better idea of what we can expect from Dye, let's take a look at his top comparable players.

The List of Similar Players

Here are Dye's top ten PECOTA comps.  Let's focus strictly on their age 34 and 35 seasons simply because we want to get an idea what the ChiSox can expect from him during the guaranteed portion of his extension:

Dave Henderson:

Herderson's age 34 and 35 seasons weren't pretty.  He compiled a combined 580 AB's during the two years and was a .230/.300/.400 type hitter during that tenure.  His age 35 season was his final major league year.

Cliff Floyd:

Like Dye, Floyd's finest seasons came during his mid to late twenties.  Floyd is yet to complete his age 34 season, but he has battled injuries over the past few years and he's currently hitting .290/.366/.382 for the Cubs in limited action.

Dave Winfield:

One of Dye's better top comps, Winfield was quite good during his age 34 and 35 seasons posting WARP3's of 7.0 and 4.8 respectively.   The Hall of Famer played everyday player-caliber baseball up until his age 42 season.

Jim Rice:

The borderline Hall of Famer was always a productive player for the Red Sox during his twenties and early thirties, but began to show signs of aging as he entered his mid-thirties.  His age 34 and 35 seasons weren't very good at all as he saw a significant decrease in playing time, posting WARP3's of 2.8 and 2.6 respectively.  Rice would take 209 AB's for the Red Sox in his age 36 season and didn't return to the majors afterward.  

Johnny Lindell:

To me Lindell's a tough guy to compare Dye to simply because he wasn't playing in the majors during his age 34 and 35 seasons.  Lindell was a position player throughout most of his career (age 24 to 33 season), but returned to the majors league's during his age 36 season as a pitcher.

Jim Lemon:

Probably a guy you don't want in your top comps list as you enter your mid-thirties.  Lemon was a productive everyday-caliber player during his late twenties and early thirties, but saw a combined 173 AB's during his age 34 and 35 seasons.  He accumulated WARP3 during that span was a mere 0.2 wins.

Albert Belle:

Belle had a number of MVP-caliber seasons throughout his career.  Belle posted WARP3's of at least ten wins nearly six times (9.9 during his age 32 season), but retired from baseball following his age 33 season due to degenerative osteoarthritis in his hip.

Bob Cerv:

Another guy that just didn't receive large doses of playing time in his mid-thirties.  Cerv accumulated a total of 469 AB's during his age 34 and 35 seasons.  His combined WARP3 over that time was a mere 4.3 wins.

Joe Adcock:

Adcock was a pretty valuable player into his thirties, but really slumped during his age 34 and 35 seasons in respect to both productivity and playing time.  He didn't play full seasons in both of those years combining to take 674 AB's and posting WARP3's of 4.9 and 1.4 respectively.

Orlando Cepeda:

Cepeda had more than a few All-Star caliber seasons during his 17-year career, but struggled to find consistency in both playing time and production during his age 34 and 35 seasons.  Like many of the players already listed, Cepeda was not an everyday player during both of those seasons combining to take a total of 637 AB's during that tenure.  Combined WARP3 over those two years was 4.2 wins.

Final Thoughts

I'd like to give the White Sox the benefit of the doubt on this extension.  Two years for a guy that was a top-five MVP finisher just a season ago is pretty darn good given the current market.

While his projection itself doesn't look all that bad many of those top comps, specifically Lemon and Henderson, look downright scary.  Many didn't even last until the age of 40.

Dye's tenure with the White Sox has been nothing short of a success for the most part and I'd like to believe his future production should look something in between his current 2007 season and monstrous 2006 season, but given those comparable players that seems like a bit of a stretch.  

Over the last couple of weeks, I've taken a look at how the races in the Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Awards are shaping up in both the American and National League.

Today I'll take a look the races in the final major award in baseball, that being the Rookie of the Year Award.

Let's first start in the National League:

Milwaukee's Ryan Braun leads all National League rookies in VORP and by a pretty large margin of nearly 15 runs.

On the season he's hitting a ridiculous .348/.382/.666 and has 22 home runs in less than 300 AB's.  I've said it before and I'll say it again:  If Braun started the season as the Brewers' everyday third baseman and hit anywhere near the level he's hitting now, he'd be a legitimate MVP candidate.

He gets my vote, despite the fact Troy Tulowitzki has been nearly two wins better according to WARP1.  I suspect most of this has to do with the aspect of playing time; Tulo has more than 160 PA's under his belt than Braun does.

Had Hunter Pence avoided his DL stint, which is nearing a month now, he'd probably be in the mix too.

Let's move over to the American League:

How about the season Jeremy Guthrie has been having?

PECOTA projected a VORP of 0.7 runs and an ERA of 5.48 in 55.0 innings pitched from Guthrie to begin the year and he's clearly performed well beyond expectations.

His VORP of 32.0 runs is second among A.L. rookies and he's pitched 138.2 innings yielding a 3.50 ERA.

Unfortunately for him, he pitches in the same league as Daisuke Matsuzaka who leads A.L. rookies in both VORP and WARP1.

I've heard compelling arguments in the past regarding former Japanese league players eligibility for the award.  Some simply believe guys like Matsuzaka, who have had plenty of experience playing in Japan, should not be eligible due to the fact they're not really "rookies."

Whether or not you agree with that notion is another story (I personally don't agree with that logic) and given the fact both Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui have won the award in the past, there is no reason to believe Daisuke doesn't have a strong chance at reeling this one in.

Matsuzaka gets my vote in the A.L.

The 2005 San Diego Padres were far from a perfect playoff team.

The '05 Pads won the National League West on the "strength" of an 82-80 record only to be swept by the St. Louis Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs.

Though the team ended the season two games above .500, their Pythagorean Record was 77-85 and it was clear changes needed to be made in order for the 2006 Padres to play in the postseason once again.

Two of the teams gaping holes that season were at first base and in the starting rotation.  

Padres' first basemen hit .243/.311/.390 thanks largely in part to below-average production from Phil Nevin (90 OPS+) who was no longer a long-term option for the team.  Ryan Klesko was considered the team's primary option at first base for the 2006 season, but injury problems coupled with mediocre production in previous seasons didn't guarantee the Padres production at first.

In the starting rotation only Jake Peavy pitched 200+ as Adam Eaton and Woody Williams each spent time on the disabled list with guys like Tim Stauffer, Chan Ho Park and Tim Redding each filling in producing at a replacement level (or in Redding's case below replacement level) rate.

With a cavernous hole at first base and a starting rotation that wasn't the least bit reliable, Padres GM Kevin Towers made quite possibly his most successful trade in his tenure in San Diego with the Texas Rangers.  

The Trade

Here is how the deal broke down:

Padres Receive:  1B Adrian Gonzalez, SP Chris Young and OF Terrmel Sledge

Rangers Receive:  C Billy Killian (minors), RP Akinori Otsuka and SP Adam Eaton

Here was Christina Kahrl's take from the Padres' point of view:

And now from the Rangers' perspective:

I think it's fair to asses that none of us were really impressed with this deal from the Rangers standpoint at the get-go.

At the time Adrian Gonzalez looked like a former top pick that had just bombed out.  He had spent nearly five full years in the minors and was boasting a .296/.365/.448 career MiLB line that was limited to first base.  He was blocked by Mark Teixeira and the best of us expected that he would eventually be dealt.  But he was entering his age 24 season at the time of the deal, so chances of a major league career were there.

Chris Young was (and still is) an extreme flyball pitcher that many of us though wouldn't mix well with the very-hitter friendly Ameriquest Field over the long-term.   Here is a look at Young's statistics with the Rangers during the 2004 and 2005 seasons:

Despite the small sample size, we can clearly see Young struggled a bit more at home with the Rangers.  As we would expect from a flyball pitcher (Young's groundball rate during his time with the Rangers was a lofty 32.7%), his home run rate shot up at Ameriquest and his road ERA was over a run lower than his home ERA.  

But the K/BB ratio and upside were there and as Kahrl already mentioned, Adam Eaton (who is a year older than Young) wasn't exactly much of an upgrade to begin with.  PECOTA saw nearly identical production coming from the two over the next three seasons and Young was locked up through 2008, so expecting Adam Eaton to not only produce further, but also remain more economically beneficial was stretching it.

Then there's the case of Akinori Otsuka.  Otuska's rookie season in 2004 was outstanding (5.066 WXRL), but the thought was his decline in 2005 (1.542 WXRL) was attributed to National League hitters "figuring out" his unorthodox delivery.  Kahrl mentions Shingo Takatsu as a comparable player who flamed out in his second year in the same league.  We'll never know just how Otsuka would have performed in his third straight season in the National League, but it's something Kevin Towers wasn't going to find out.

Looking at the big picture, Young and Gonzalez weren't by any means star players with the Rangers.  Gonzalez was a .225/.275/.390 type hitter during his tenure in the majors with Texas, while Young's flyball concerns did overshadow some of his upside, but was it worth trading both for a pitcher of Adam Eaton's caliber and a relief pitcher in Otsuka coming off a season in which he saw a significant decrease in effectiveness?

Probably not.  Kahrl mentiones the deal was just a "bad move" from the Rangers perspective and the following season we found out just how much of a good move it was for the Padres.

The Results

Here is a look at how both the Rangers and Padres have fared in the deal in terms of WARP.  A few notes:  Billy Killian is not included due to the fact he has not played in a major league game.  Eaton's 2007 WARP is not included due to the fact he is not playing for the Texas Rangers. The WARP's used for the 2007 season are each player's WARP1:

The most valuable player acquired in the six player deal was a big surprise to just about everyone in Adrian Gonzalez.

After taking only 192 AB's with the Rangers big league club, Gonzalez had an outstanding year with the Padres hitting .304/.362/.500; and it all started with Ryan Klesko's shoulder injury.  Klesko was placed on the 15-day DL on April 1st, 2006 and he missed just about all of the '06 season paving way for Gonzalez' monster year.  His VORP 32.8 runs was good for 11th among major league first basemen and his defense (+ 15 FRAA) was outstanding.  His WARP of 7.0 wins was nearly a half win better than that of then-Rangers first baseman Mark Teixeira and he was the most productive hitter in the Padres' lineup outside of Mike Cameron.  Gonzalez is currently experiencing a bit more of a down year hitting .268/.342/.482, but his defense is still very good (+14 FRAA) and given the fact he's signed through 2011 (the final year being a club option), the Padres won't have to worry about their situation at first base for quite a while.

Then you have Chris Young, who has seemingly blossomed into a #1 type starter since being traded to the Padres.  PETCO Park is the perfect place for a flyball pitcher and Young has adapted well, but surprisingly enough he's actually pitcher better on the road, just take a look at his splits:

Young's pitching much better at home than on the road this season, but Young's career with the Padres looks like it's been taken out of the book of Johan Santana.  Young's VORP of 45.8 runs was the 21st best mark among major league starters and he's been even better this season; despite a DL stint his VORP of 44.9 runs is 9th among starters and he's right in the thick of things for the NL Cy Young Award race.

Sledge spent most of 2006 in AAA for the Padres and hit only .229/.308/.357 for the big league club in 78 PA's.  PECOTA saw good things from the utility-outfielder this season (.269/.353/.463; 19.2 VORP in 442 PA's), but he's struggled on the year hitting .212/.310/.371. Regardless, he's been worth only about one less win than what Eaton brought the Rangers in the deal.

Moving over to the Rangers side of the deal, Eaton's 2006 season can be summarized in one word:  Disaster.  Eaton pitched only 65 innings for the Rangers last season as he battled injuries the entire year and when he was healthy, he produced at a replacement level rate (6.4 VORP). Given the high demand for starting pitching, the Phillies signed Eaton to a 3-year deal, effectively ending his tenure with the Rangers.

Otsuka was outstanding in his first season with Texas producing at the same rate Chris Young did with the Padres last season.  The thought a league change would help him certainly seems true as his WXRL rocketed back up to 2.674; good for 30th in the major leagues.

He's pitching effectively once again this season, but his peripherals have worsened just a tad and talk that American League hitters are "figuring him out" is surfacing.  Otsuka will test the market following this season and given how often his name popped-up in trade rumors this summer; it's very unclear whether the Rangers will bring him back.

As a whole, you currently have an edge of a little more than 15 wins in favor of the Padres over the past season and a half.  When you consider the fact Gonzalez and Young can both remain with the Padres until 2011, this deal is only going to look worse and worse for the Rangers as time goes on.

Looking Forward

It's very possible that by next season not a single player the Rangers acquired in this deal will remain in their organization.  Eaton and Killian have moved on, whereas Otsuka will test the market and may very well sign with a new team.

As for the Padres, well the future looks plenty bright.  PECOTA expects Gonzalez to produce 23.7 wins above the replacement level player through 2011 and Young 13.2 wins through that tenure as well.

Whether or not those two actually do produce at that rate over the next four seasons is another story, but I think it's safe to say that if Rangers GM Jon Daniels could have this trade back he'd take it back.

[editor's note, by Mike Pindelski]: Thanks to Adam J. Morris for pointing out a minor flaw in this piece. Otsuka will test the market following the 2009 season, not following this year.

If there's one reason we rarely see a pitcher win a Most Valuable Player Award, that reason is likely because they have an award only players of their kind can win in the Cy Young Award.

This season's races for the award are tight in both leagues with a couple of surprising players leading the charge in VORP among American League pitchers.  Let's take a look:

There has been a lot of negativity expressed in the sabermetric community regarding the White Sox decision to extend Mark Buehrle, even if they did sign him at a below market rate.  While I agree in the fact he's not the type of pitcher that projects well in the long term, he's having one heck of a comeback season. His VORP of 46.7 runs is tied for second best in the American League and his WARP1 is right up there with Haren's and Bedard's.

For those of you who like WARP however, Johan Santana is the favorite to win the Cy Young Award in the A.L. (as if that's the first time that phrase has ever been muttered).

His WARP1 is nearly one full win better than the pitcher right behind him in Dan Haren despite the fact he "only" has 12 wins on the season.

A sleeper pick?  Seattle's J.J. Putz leads the major leagues in WXRL (5.376) and WPA (4.42) and he's been the most effective Mariners pitcher in terms of VORP (27.2), giving you an idea just how awesome he has been out of the bullpen this season.  We don't see relief pitchers win the Cy Young Award a whole lot, but if the Mariners end up making the postseason he's a guy that should get some recognition.

Let's move over to the National League:

A Cy Young Award repeat for Arizona's Brandon Webb?

Seems unlikely given just how effective the Padres' Jake Peavy has been this season.  He leads all award candidates in both VORP and WARP1. He's my pick here.

A sleeper in the N.L.?  The Cubs' Carlos Zambrano doesn't place in the top ten in VORP quite yet, but he's been outstanding since June 6th pitching 87.1 innings and posting a 2.06 ERA.  He's also upped his VORP by nearly 40 runs since then as well.  If he continues to dominate, he's a guy that's going to climb the latter very quickly.

What initially looked like a day-to-day right quad strain for Alfonso Soriano has turned into a small tear and a 15-day DL stint which will keep Cubs' superstar out of the lineup for at least a month.

Soriano isn't playing at the level he did last season in Washington, but he's still been awfully good this season hitting .297/.336/.511; his VORP of 25.9 runs is currently third among Cub hitters.

Replacing Alfonso Soriano isn't an easy task for the Cubs.

You don't have hitters of his caliber sitting around at Triple-A and with the trade deadline having already passed making a trade is just that more difficult.

To replace Soriano the Cubs took a surprising route calling up 2B/OF Eric Patterson over fellow top prospect Felix Pie.  Patterson was hitting .299/.360/.470 for Triple-A Iowa with 14 long balls in 451 AB's before his call-up.

Patterson began the season as a second baseman, but recently converted to the outfield; the place he'll likely play with the big league club.

Patterson earned fame around the Baseball Prospectus world this season following Jim Baker's article featuring PECOTA's favorite rookies.

To give you an idea just how much PECOTA likes Patterson, here is his five-year projection:

Patterson's projected VORP of 34.9 runs was a higher projected figure than that of fellow second basemen Brian Roberts, B.J. Upton, Placido Polanco, Robinson Cano, Dan Uggla and Dustin Pedroia giving you an idea of just how good his All-Star caliber projection is.

Patterson isn't a big guy, he's listed at 5'11" and 170 lbs., but he's a second basemen with some sock that fields his position well and he will take a walk.

Because his last name is Patterson (Eric is the younger brother of former Cub Corey Patterson), the Cubs took extreme caution with his development signing Mark DeRosa to a 3-year/ $13M contract this winter which essentially took Patterson out of the picture for the club's second base option in the 2007 season.  PECOTA didn't think that was necessary (Patterson's projected VORP was nearly twenty runs higher than that of DeRosa) and it's easy to see why some Cubs fan called foul after Hendry signed DeRosa to the three-year deal.

Soriano's injury however will give Patterson his chance.  His bat obviously plays much better at second base, but if Patterson hits near his PECOTA line of .293/.358/.479 at a corner outfield spot, the loss of Soriano isn't going to sting nearly as much as it could have.

Patterson's a guy to keep an eye on.  

DeRosa does have the three-year contract under his belt, but if Patterson hits well enough (and he certainly has the potential to), he could force the Cubs to move DeRosa via trade or even shift him back to the bench in a reserve role.

This winter the Dodgers signed free agent centerfielder Juan Pierre to a 5-year/$45M deal in what might be Ned Colletti's worst acquisition as Dodgers General Manager.

Colletti has made a few good free agent signings during his tenure as the Dodgers GM, most notably signing shortstop Rafael Furcal to a 3-year/$39M deal and bringing in Takashi Saito from Japan on a minor league deal worth $500K, but the Pierre deal is one he may soon be regretting very soon.

In his first season in Los Angeles, Pierre is hitting a mere .279/.317/.334 while his VORP of 4.9 runs is nearing replacement level talent.

More importantly, the Dodgers will likely endure four more years of this outs machine who is nearing his 30th birthday, unless they find a way to dump him to another team in the future.

Pierre has a reputation for being a hard-worker and the speed he provides on the base paths is an asset, but there is virtually no way to justify this signing after seeing what Pierre has done in his first season with the Dodgers thus far.

The question isn't whether or not this deal was a mistake for LA, many in the sabermetric community thought the deal was outrageous even before he played his first game in a Dodger uniform, but rather just how much will he decline as he ages?

Pierre's game is entirely dependent on his legs. He's an extreme groundball hitter (he's currently tops in the National League in GB% at 53% and he's placed in the top five of that category from 2004-2006) and when you browse through his hit charts it's very clear his batting average has been boosted by a number of infield hits.  He has no power, he won't draw a walk and his defense is below average so without his above-average batting average and gaudy stolen base totals he's essentially useless.

BP 2007 acknowledged this, but let's take this a step further and take a look at his five-year projection and top comparables players.

The Projection

Here is PECOTA's five-year forecast for Juan Pierre:

Note the fact Pierre is underperforming what already was a rather meager projection. While he'll likely eclipse his projected stolen base total, every single one of his rate stats are below what PECOTA forecasted and it doesn't look like he's been very unlikely on the BABIP front; his actual BABIP (.299) and expected BABIP (.322) aren't too far off.

More concerning is the fact his contact rate has worsened this season, he's striking out once every 16.25 AB's compared to his mark of once every 17.22 AB's from 2004-2006.

Is this just a small sample size problem or is it real?  I don't know, but it is something to take note of.

PECOTA doesn't expect much from Pierre over the next five seasons and their MORP system values his projected performance at around $34M, meaning the Dodgers overpaid by $11M or so.  The fact Pierre's underachieving his 2007 forecast makes his future projection even more concerning.

As I mentioned earlier, Pierre has always been a durable player.  He's played in at least 150 games over his last six seasons, but PECOTA see's a decrease in playing time during his age 32 and 33 seasons which would certainly hurt his value.  

Looking toward Pierre's most important aspect of his game, that being his speed, PECOTA doesn't see a large decrease in his stolen base totals which prompts it to predict batting averages of .285 or higher over the next five years.  Assuming he stays healthy, he could very well stay above the replacement level threshold which should help Dodger fans breathe a bit easier.  

PECOTA doesn't think Pierre's going to lose his legs over the next five seasons; beyond that is another story.

The List of Similar Players

Let's take a look at Pierre's top ten comparable players via PECOTA and focus strictly on their age 29 to 33 seasons to see just what the Dodgers can expect from Pierre over the next five years.  I'll once again focus on their stolen base totals, but also take a look at their number of plate appearances during that span to see if we can expect a decrease in playing time from Pierre.

Lance Johnson:

Like Pierre, Johnson was a speedster who relied on batting average and rarely hit home runs or drew a walk during his hey-day.  Johnson was pretty valuable during his age 31 and 32 seasons (he posted WARP3's of 7.5 and 6.2 during those years respectively), but he saw a massive decline in playing time during his age 33 season.  His speed also regressed during those years.  

Tom Goodwin:

Goodwin was an everyday player during his age 29 through 31 seasons, but saw a sharp decrease in playing time during his age 32 and 33 seasons.  Goodwin remained a stolen base threat throughout those years, but the massive decrease in playing time cannot be ignored.

Willie Wilson:

Almost a mirror image to Goodwin in terms of playing time and stolen base totals.  Wilson was an everyday player during his age 29 through 32 season, but saw his playing time decrease during is age 33 season.  Once again, always a very speedy player during this tenure, but he wasn't an everyday guy during this five-year stretch either.

Scott Podsednik:

A player Pierre is often compared to, Pods stole 99 total bases throughout his age 29 and 30 seasons, but injuries have limited him to only 110 AB's this year, his age 31 season, and he isn't showing the speed he once did.  It's also worth noting he has spent time on the DL both last season and the year before that as well.

Matty Alou:

Unlike the comparable players already mentioned, Alou remained an everyday regular throughout his age 29 through 33 seasons, but also unlike the players listed, his speed regressed significantly during his age 33 season.

Mickey Rivers:

Rivers was an everyday guy throughout his age 29 through 32 seasons, but was limited to only 68 AB's during his age 33 season due to injury. It's also important to note Rivers saw a sharp decline in his stolen base totals following his age 29 season.

Luis Polonia:

Polonia played everyday during his age 29 season, but suffered a sharp decrease in playing time and stolen base totals following that year.  He was out of the majors following his age 32 season only to return to the majors during his age 35 season with the Tigers.

Milt Thompson:

Thompson was never much of a regular player (he eclipsed 500+ AB's only twice during his 13-year career), but things really took a turn for the worst following his age 30 season in terms of both playing time and stolen base totals.

Gene Richards:

Richards was reduced to reserve roles during his age 29 and 30 seasons and didn't return to the majors following that time.  He was a player that was always a threat to steal during his prime, but he took a large step backward following his age 26 season.

Darryl Hamilton:

Another guy that never really was a consistent everyday player (he eclipsed 500+ AB's only five times during his 13-year career), Hamilton took a step back in terms of stolen base totals following his age 32 season.  Never the speedster Pierre was (and still is), he only stole more than 40 bases in a season once during his career.

Over viewing all of the players listed, it's pretty safe to assume Pierre won't remain as speedy as he currently is throughout his five-year tenure with Los Angeles, but he won't necessarily lose his legs either.

Perhaps more important is the fact that not a single player listed remained everyday players during their age 29 through 33 seasons.  

Final Thoughts

Given his projection and the players he compares to the most, expecting Pierre to lose his legs completely may be a bit much.

I highly doubt he he'll remain as fast as he currently is into the latter part of this five-year deal, but his speed should remain an asset which should help the fact he'll always be an extreme groundball hitter.

More interesting is the fact his durability may be put into question.  PECOTA projecting a decrease in playing time following his age 31 season seems like a good bet given his comparables.

For Juan Pierre to essentially remain better than replacement level talent he needs to do a couple of things:  He needs to use his speed to his advantage to keep that batting average above-average and he needs to play everyday.

I put Pierre's speed into question at the beginning of the piece, but following examination of his five-year forecast and top comps, the latter is something that may prevent him from justifying the deal he signed even by the slightest margin.

Well, another trade deadline come and gone.

A number of players rumored to be on the block changing teams and even more staying put.  

To me, the trade deadline is baseball holiday.  I'm constantly checking the columns of Ken Rosenthal and the pages of MLBTradeRumors looking for updates to see just who is headed to which team.

This season's trade deadline was a far more exciting than last season's.  A number of above average players and a few All-Star caliber players were moved along with a few top prospects as well.

Here are my thoughts following the excitement of the last week:

The Braves Went Bananas

The Braves think they're in the National League playoff hunt (I also think they are) and they proved that this week.

In probably the biggest deal of the deadline week, they acquired Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay for five prospects, most notably catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, shortstop Elvis Andrus and left-handed pitcher Matt Harrison.

Braves first baseman are hitting .211/.270/.363 on the season, so you can make a strong argument Atlanta was the team that needed Tex the most.

I don't want to get too much into the analysis of this deal (Joe Sheehan, J.C. Bradbury and Adam J. Morris have already done so), but I see this deal as a win-win for both teams.

Saltalamacchia and Andrus are both PECOTA favorites while Harrison was rated as the #2 prospect in the Braves organization by Kevin Goldstein, so Texas is receiving three top-tier prospects here which is something any team would kill for in a deal during this era.

The price tag for Tex was high and the Braves certainly paid-up for his services.

However, Salty was blocked by Brian McCann while Andrus is currently behind Edgar Renteria and Brent Lillibridge on the organizational latter, so Atlanta essentially traded two top prospects they could "afford" to trade.

The price tag was still very high and you have to wonder if Atlanta will regret trading so many young players with upside, especially if Teixeira walks following the 2008 season.

Still, his bat and his glove are both very valuable assets and he should bolster the Braves lineup.  If Andruw Jones starts coming around, they might have the best 3-4-5 hitter trio in the National League with Chipper-Andruw- and now Teixeira.

Along with Mahay, the Braves also traded for potential closer Octavio Dotel and Royce Ring which should help a middle-of-the-road bullpen; the Atlanta bullpen currently ranks 15th in the majors in WXRL at 6.301.

Overall, Atlanta improved their lineup (at the team's worst position) and their bullpen which could mean the difference between playing in the postseason and watching it.

The Red Sox Improved the Best Bullpen in the Baseball

What's better than a bullpen featuring Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, Mike Timlin and Jonathan Papelbon?  How about a bullpen featuring Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, Mike Timlin, Jonathan Papelbon and Eric Gagne?

Gagne's not the pitcher he used to be stuff-wise, but he's still effective continually hitting 92-94 MPH on the gun and he was the most effective Texas reliever in terms of WXRL at 2.697.

Gagne's peripherals aren't as strong as they were during his Dodger days, but he's clearly an asset and he puts the icing on the cake of what is the major league best bullpen in terms of WXRL at 11.474.

When you plan Eric Gagne to act as one of your prime set-up men, you know you have yourself a darn good bullpen.

I Still Don't Understand the Pirates

I don't see much motivation in trading for Matt Morris, especially if you're a team like the Pirates with virtually no shot of making the playoffs. More troubling is the fact the Bucs are picking up the remainder if the $9.5M owed to Morris this season and the $9.5M he is owed in 2008.

Morris' ERA of 4.35 isn't all that bad, it ranks 31st among qualified major league pitchers and his DIPS ERA of 4.17 is good for 29th in the major leagues, but there isn't much upside left a 32-year old pitcher with a K/9 of 4.80.

Rajai Davis, the main player the Giants acquired in the deal, presents low upside as well, but this is definitely win for San Francisco in a classic salary dump.

I'm guessing the recent fatigue Tom Gorzelanny has shown prompted Dave Littlefield to acquire Morris, but I can't bring myself to applaud Pittsburgh in trading for Morris and more importantly picking up the rest of the cash remaining on his contract.

So Much for the White Sox Firesale

Remember when SI's Jon Heyman was calling a White Sox firesale "imminent"?

A total of two major league players were traded by the White Sox this week, those being Tadahito Iguchi to the Phillies and Rob Macowiak to the Padres.

Each were exchanged for a couple of A-ball right-handers in Michael Dubee and Jon Link respectively.

Jermaine Dye went nowhere and neither did Jon Garland, Javier Vazquez or Jose Contreras.

As a Sox fan, I was sort of hoping for a firesale type trade deadline, but Kenny Williams is showing a very unwillingness to blow-up a borderline last place team.

Mark Buehrle has already been extended and there's talk Dye might be next.

The Cubs and Brewers Did Nothing to One-Up Each Other in the Central

Two teams that seemed to be linked to almost every trade rumor over the past week were the Cubs and the Brewers.  Surprise!  Neither team made a move yesterday,

The Brewers did trade for Scott Linebrink earlier in the week, a very questionalbe move, but neither team acquired the bat or relief arm each rumored to be looking for over the last 48 hours.

Baseball Prospectus' think both have a legitimate shot of making the playoffs (The Brewers at 59% and the Cubs at 55%) and we're going to see the same Brewers and Cubs teams we've seen over the course of the season throughout the rest of the year.

I'm a little surprised Jim Hendry didn't make a move.  He's a guy that's normally isn't afraid to make a splash at the deadline.

The Padres Bolstered a Pretty Weak Bench

The 2006 Padres team featured a very strong bench, but we've seen the exact opposite this year.

Jose Cruz is hitting only .235/.317/.376 this year, while Geoff Blum (.237/.318/.326) and the recently DFA'd Russell Branyan (.197/.322/.426) have also struggled.

Enter the acquisitions of Morgan Ensberg and Rob Mackowiak as I mentioned above.

Though he is struggling his season, Ensberg gives the Padres insurance at third base and a bat that can hit left-handed pitching (despite his troubles he's hitting .259/.330/.459 against left-handed on the year).

Mackowiak gives the Pads a versatile player that can play virtually anywhere on the diamond and he's killed the ball since the All-Star break hitting .381/.413/.619 in 42 AB's following the mid-summer classic.

Even more impressive is the acquisition of Scott Hairston.

Hairston's also been tagged as a "sleeper" mainly because he hit .323/.407/.531 in 440 AB's for AAA Tucson in 2006. More impressive were his major league equivalents that year:  .288/.365/.530 and a VORP of 27.1 runs.

PECOTA projected a .275/.343/.501 batting line from him for the season and even though he's currently hitting well below that this year (.219/.298/.354 in 178 AB's), he too brings the Padres bench some pop and versatility.

Don't forget they also inked Shea Hillenbrand to a minor league contract as well.

Despite the Teixeira and Gagne Deals, the Trade Deadline was Still Just a Ton of Hot Air

Sure, Teixeira and Gagne are two former All-Stars that will now play for new, playoff caliber teams.  It was exciting watching the two deals develop and they should certainly make an impact on their new teams.

However, as I mentioned above, many names rumored to be on the block stayed put.

Adam Dunn,  Ken Griffey Jr., Bronson Arroyo and David Weathers are still on the Reds.  Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch went nowhere.  Neither did Al Reyes, Jonny Gomes, Torri Hunter or any of the White Sox starting arms.

The trade deadline was plenty fun this year, but like every season, I always seem to want more when it ends.

Earlier in July I remember watching an episode of Sportscenter in which former major league manager Dusty Baker was debating whether or not Alex Rodriguez should participate in the 2007 Home Run Derby.

I specifically remember the phrase "home run derby curse" being muttered by the Sportscenter anchor I cannot remember as a reason why A-Rod should be careful in deciding whether or not to partake in the derby.

A myth that seems to surface around the time of each seasons All-Star Game is the theory that players who participate in the home run derby (predominately the finalists) will see significant decline in their second half production; specifically in the power department.

Rodriguez of course did not participate and Vladimir Guerrero ended up winning the derby defeating Alex Rios in the final round.

So, was the decision of not taking part in the derby a wise one for Rodriguez?  Did he avoid the home run derby "curse"?

Let's take a look.  Here is a list of the last twenty-two home run derby finalists in derbies over the last eleven seasons along with their production in the first and second half of their respective seasons:

(Note:  OPS+ is relative to Major League OPS for the split)

The sample size of subjects, that being only twenty-two is quite small, but the event hasn't been around forever (it became part of the All-Star festivities starting in 1985) and the total number of home runs hit in the derby skyrocketed in the 1990's, so we can still get an idea just if this "supposed" curse does exist.

Here's what we find from the chart:

*Eight Players saw improvement in second half OPS+, thirteen saw decline in second half OPS+, one player saw no improvement or decline in second half OPS+ (Giambi in 2002).

*Nine Players saw improvement in second half AB/HR ratio, thirteen saw decline in AB/HR ratio.

*As a whole, HR/AB ratio declined slightly in the second half.

When looking at things from an OPS+ perspective, we need to consider the concept of regression.

Larry Walker saw a significant decrease in his second half OPS+ back in 1997, but was it even reasonable to expect that he could repeat his first half production (.398/.496/.741) in the second half?  Probably not.  

Walker still had an outstanding second half that season (.328/.397/.695), but he goes down as a guy that saw a decrease in production following his participation in the derby.

The same type of thing can be said for Mark McGwire in 1996 (.332/.496/.796 first half vs. .292/.437/.665 second half) and Luis Gonzalez in 2001 (.355/.443/.745 first half vs. .290/.412/.620 second half).

For some of these players it's not so much that the home run derby altered their swing and caused them second half decline, it's more so that some of them were playing well over their heads and just falling back to earth a little bit.

When I combined all the finalists pre and post All-Star at-bats and home runs, I came to find out the average player will see their AB/HR rate increase, but oh so slightly.

The difference isn't real significant, but we have seen a few standouts in derby history.

Players like David Wright in 2006, Jeromy Burnitz in 1999, Garrett Anderson in 2003 and Bobby Abreu in 2005 all saw massive declines in their home run rates following the derby whereas Ivan Rodriguez in 2005, Miguel Tejada in 2004 and Sammy Sosa in both 2001 and 2000 each saw significant improvement in their home run frequencies.

Once again, players have tended to see declines in their home run rates following participation in the derby, but the combined difference is quite small.

So, was A-Rod wise in passing up the offer to participate in the derby?

It probably wouldn't have made a difference.  Some have performed even better in the second half following taking a few swings in the derby while some just have not.  There just isn't an extreme pattern here.