SB Nation User Blog: Mike Pindelski

Contreras' Start Against the Cubs

Mike Pindelski — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 19:35:07 -0000

Jose Contreras’ loss against the Cubs yesterday puts a dent in what has been a very good month of June for a guy who was in the minor leagues this past May.

His line read like this last afternoon: Seven and one-third innings pitched, seven hits allowed, five runs allowed (four earned), one walks and eight strikeouts. The big blow, of course, was a Geovany Soto three-run homer which put the Cubs up for good.

Despite his first loss since May 8th, Contreras showed a few positives in yesterday’s loss.

Here’s his pitch distribution chart against the Cubs:

Contreras Pitch Dist vs Cubs (via mpindels)

And his pitch distribution throughout the season for comparison:

Contreras Pitch Dist Season Avg (via mpindels)

As usual, the majority of pitches he threw were four-seam fastballs, but Contreras’ really went to the changeup a bit more than usual yesterday. I’m not sure what the Cubs’ scouting report for yesterday’s game ready (perhaps Cub hitters struggle against the change), but instead of relying on the slider as his primary secondary pitch, he stuck with the change.

Here is a look at Contreras’ movement yesterday. Bear with me a little: I’m still learning how to graph pitches using the data extracted from MLB Gameday and I’m by no means a master of Microsoft Excel, so if the graph is a little difficult to comprehend I do apologize. The X-axis represents Contreras’ Horizontal Movement while the Y-axis represents his Vertical Movement:

Jose Contreras Movement vs Cubs (via mpindels)

Here’s a numerical version of Contreras’ average movements along with average velocities obtained by Brooks Baseball:

Contreras Movements and Velocities vs Cubs (via mpindels)

The movements aren’t too different from Contreras’ season averages, but he was throwing a bit harder than usual. The average velocity of his four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, slider and curveball were a bit higher than usual. Both of his fastballs topped out at around 95 MPH and we saw a number of fastballs in the 93-94 MPH range. You can’t discount the human element in baseball; perhaps Contreras was a little more amped up for a game with this type of significance, but it’s clear his velocity was not a problem at all.

Another plus were the 8 punchouts that tied a season high. Four of them came from the four-seam fastball, three from the changeup and one from a nasty curveball/forkball thrown to Alfonso Soriano who struck out three times against Jose (Soriano had previously gone 5 for 8 against Contreras’ with 3 home runs).

There were most definitely a few negatives: Despite a season groundball rate of 50%, Contreras was very flyball prone yesterday giving up two home runs. He also looked much more line drive prone compared to previous June starts.

But he was efficient, throwing just 99 pitches the entire game, nearly 2/3 of them going for strikes. He was throwing harder than usual and showed us both his fastball and changeup can be outpitches. It’s never good when you lose to one of the least productive offenses in baseball, but as a whole, the were positives to take from this start.

Information was obtained from Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball.

A Couple of Notes on Gavin Floyd

Mike Pindelski — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:04:35 -0000

Though on the surface he appeared one of the major league’s breakout pitchers in 2008, Gavin Floyd had a great deal of luck come his way during his 17-win, 3.84 ERA season last year.

Because of so-so peripherals, an abnormally low .268 BABIP and a high home run rate, many projection systems cried out for regression in 2009. PECOTA called for a 5.00 ERA in just 107 innings, CHONE projected a 5.08 ERA in 172 innings and ZiPS a 4.70 ERA in 184 innings.

Despite struggling in April and May, Floyd has really turned a corner in corner in June and he’s become a more complete pitcher in 2009. Though his ERA is currently 4.65, his FIP-ERA of 3.79 is 12th best among AL starters. There are a couple of things in particular that have changed with Floyd since 2008.

*Mixing It Up*

Here are Floyd’s pitch distribution charts from last season:

Floyd Pitch Dist 2008 (via mpindels)

And from thus far into the 2009 season:

Floyd Pitch Dist 2009 (via mpindels)

Note that each charts percentages do not add up to 100% because intentional balls and pitchouts were not included.

From here we can see that Floyd is relying less and less on his fastball and focusing a bit more on his secondary pitches.

Also note the addition of a two seam fastball detected by pitch f/x. Pitch f/x algorithms are often inaccurate meaning Floyd may not intentionally be throwing a two-seam fastball, but the pitch f/x system is picking up a pitch similar to it.

Over the last three seasons as a whole, Floyd has used his fastball less and less, mixing up his repertoire and perhaps becoming a little less predictable.

*The Curveball*

One of the pitches he’s been using a bit more frequently is his curveball, known by most White Sox fans as his best pitch.

This season Floyd is throwing his curveball at an average velocity of 79.8 MPH, a little more than two MPH faster than the average curveball. He’s also getting an average of -5.4 inches of vertical movement, right on target with the major league average, and 7.1 inches of horizontal movement, nearly two inches more than the major league average. That being said, his curveball is clearly an above average pitch: he’s getting more horizontal movement and throwing it harder than the average major league pitcher with a curveball.

Here is a look at the value of each of Floyd’s pitch types of the last two seasons. For those new to this type of statistic, the wFB/C column represents fastball runs above average per 100 fastballs. The wCB/C column represents curveball runs above average per 100 curveballs and so on:

Floyd Pitch Values (via mpindels)

As we can see, Floyd is getting much more value from his curveball in 2009 at 2.95 runs above average per 100 curveballs which is the third best figure in the AL behind Brad Bergesen of Baltimore and Roy Halladay of Toronto.

All Statistics provided by Fangraphs.

Second to None: The First Half of Ian Kinsler

Mike Pindelski — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:15:18 -0000

Thanks in large part to an offense that is both tops in the American League in runs scored (538) and OPS (.816), the Texas Rangers are making the AL West race a little interesting currently sporting a 50-46 record, sitting 7.5 games back of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Of the top four AL hitters in Value Over Replacement Player, three of them play for the Rangers, the league’s leader currently being second baseman Ian Kinsler at 52.4 runs.

Always blessed with immense talent, Kinsler is putting together an MVP-caliber season. He is currently hitting .337/.397/.548 with 14 home runs in 398 at-bats. Each of those slash stats are career highs and he’s one pace to set a career high in home runs, health permitting of course.

Baseball fans, particularly those of the Texas Rangers variety, have always known Kinsler has an All-Star caliber bat, but I think it’s safe to say none of us expected a first half like this. Even though he’s been overshadowed a bit by the great story of Josh Hamilton and his run at the AL’s Triple Crown, Kinsler may very well be the Rangers MVP this season. Let’s look at what Kinsler has done differently this year and if he can continue raking at such a pace.

Here’s a look at Kinser’s batting statistics and batted ball data over the last year and a half:

Kinsler’s biggest improvement this season has been a near 75 point increase in his batting average thanks to a line drive percentage and BABIP that rate among the best in the AL. Conversely, we see very little change anywhere else. He’s hitting groundballs and flyballs at a very similar rate and though he’s striking out a bit less, he’s not taking nearly as many walks as he did last season, though drawing walks isn’t necessarily a concern when you’re hitting .337.

Lastly, assuming Kinsler stays healthy the rest of the year, he should set a career high in home runs. However he’s hitting flyballs out of the ballpark with less frequency compared to last season. To dig into this a little deeper, let’s look at Kinsler from the perspective of Hit Tracker. Here are Kinsler’s home run charts from the last year and a half.

First from 2007:

via www.hittrackeronline.com

And now from the first half of 2008:

via www.hittrackeronline.com

And lastly, the detail of those home runs hit:

As far as hitting home runs are concerned, Kinsler is a dead pull hitter and this isn’t necessarily a product of the hitter friendly Ballpark in Arlington either: Nineteen of the 34 home runs Kinsler has hit over the past year and a half have been hit on the road.

Also notice that nothing has significantly changed on the detail of the home runs he has hit. The average true distance and standard distance of his home runs vary by only a couple of feet, while the average calculated speed off bat is identical.

To his credit, Kinsler has done much more to improve his overall power production. He already has 34 doubles (compared to 22 all of last year) and four triples (compared to two) on the year. His speed has always been a valuable asset and he’s utilized that speed on many occasions to take the extra base. Looking at the detail of his home runs however, very little has changed from 2007.

What has changed for Kinsler is his overall ability to hit whatever pitch is thrown his way. Let’s take a look at Kinsler’s performance against different pitches between these two years, courtesy of the Pitch F/X system.

First, during the 2007 season:

And now during the 2008 season:

The only pitch Kinsler has seen a decrease in production against has been the changeup, and he’s still hitting .316 and slugging .553 against that pitch.

Everywhere else, Kinsler has seen great strides of improvement, particularly against breaking balls. He’s always been a pretty good fastball hitter, but his improvement this season against sinkers, curveballs and sliders (pitches he sees nearly 38% of the time while he’s in the box) has been monumental.

This all needs to be taken with a grain of salt: The Pitch F/X classification system isn’t perfect, but there is clear evidence Kinsler’s ability to hit breaking balls has improved.

As the rest of the season progresses, I wonder whether or not pitchers will start to pitch Kinsler a bit more to the outside of the plate. As a pull happy home run hitter, can he utilize any of that power to the opposite field if pitchers start forcing him to hit the other way? That will be told in time.

As for the rest of his performance however, Kinsler has clearly made plenty of improvements when it comes to hitting the breaking ball. Assuming he doesn’t change his approach at the plate, Kinsler should continue hitting at an All-Star caliber level into September and even October if the Rangers force the issue.

The Emergence of John Danks

Mike Pindelski — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:19:15 -0000

Part of baseball that we seem to love (and in many cases hate) so much is the unpredictability of pitcher performances. Cliff Lee, who spent a large part of last season pitching in AAA, is currently the American League’s top starting pitcher according to VORP at 37.2 runs. The talented Tim Lincecum, who started the 2007 season in A-ball, currently leads all major league pitchers in VORP at 38.1 runs. Edinson Volquez, who struggled to turn his immense talent into results with the Texas Rangers organization for five seasons, has now emerged as one of the National League’s dominant arms. Another example of a pitcher putting it all together to establish himself as an incredibly effective pitcher in 2008 is White Sox starter John Danks.

Acquired in the deal that sent Brandon McCarthy to the Rangers, Danks made his major league debut for the White Sox last year in his age 22 season experiencing more than a few growing pains as the season progressed. So-so control, coupled with extreme flyball tendencies made Danks’ first major league season a rather forgettable one. At the end of the year he had pitched 139 innings, posting an ERA of 5.50 and a VORP of just 1.8 runs.

This season, we have seen an entirely different pitcher: Danks has already pitched 107 innings, posting a 2.52 ERA and a VORP of 34.8 runs, the final figure currently being the second best mark in the American League.

What has caused such an unprecedented turnaround? Sure Danks has always been talented, but an ERA drop of nearly three full runs indicates he has been utilizing that talent differently than he did last season. Let’s take a look at Danks from a Pitch F/X standpoint. I’ll be the first to admit, I have only experimented with the tool a handful of times, so please feel free to drop a comment if you have a suggestion.

Let’s first take a look at Danks peripherals and batted ball data over the past two seasons:

Looking at his peripherals and batted ball numbers alone, there is no reason why Danks shouldn’t be pitching better this year. While there are clear improvements in both his strikeout and walk rates, the difference maker for him this year has been the nearly 12% increase in his groundball percentage which has led to significantly less flyballs leaving the ballpark. There is nearly a .25 difference between his BABIP and eBABIP meaning he may be a little hit-lucky this season, but make no mistake, his peripherals have taken a major step forward in the right direction this year.

Now for the fun stuff, here’s a look at Danks from a Pitch F/X perspective. First, the movement of his pitches during the 2007 season:

via baseball.bornbybits.com

And now, the movement of his pitches during the 2008 season.

via baseball.bornbybits.com

The addition of a fourth pitch might be the precise reason as to why John Danks has made such a leap forward in 2008.

Before the season began, Danks was essentially a three pitch pitcher throwing a heater, a breaking ball and a changeup.

This season, he added a cut fastball to his repertoire and it’s a pitch he’s used with great frequency throwing it nearly 22% of the time on the mound. This, of course, has allowed Danks to use his other pitches, particularly his fastball, with a little less frequency. Last season Danks threw his heater to hitters a little over 60% of the time. This season, he’s throwing his fastball just 46% of the time. Perhaps more revealing of the trust he placed in his fastball was the way he used it in potential strikeout counts. In 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2 counts during the 2007 season, he used his fastball nearly 70%, 44%, 41% and 48% of the time respectively. This season, he has used his fastball nearly 50%, 35%, 33% and 48% of the time in those same counts. This should come as no surprise: When a pitcher adds another pitch to his repertoire, he’s going to use his already existing pitches a bit less, but my personal belief if that Danks tried to use what was an average heater as an out pitch a bit too much which led to far too many balls in play and gaudy home run totals. Pure speculation on my part, but the addition of that cutter has allowed him to utilize his fastball with a bit more selectively.

From a pure stuff, standpoint, Danks has made plenty of improvements from his rookie year. His average fastball velocity is 92.16 MPH, a near two MPH improvement from 2007 when he was throwing his heater for an average velocity of 90.97 MPH. He also may be pitching more aggressively with his fastball. He’s getting a little less horizontal break with his fastball, but he’s getting the ball up a little more vertically, meaning he’s not afraid to challenge hitters with his heater and induce them to chase to the pitch up.

He’s also made changes with his breaking ball. The 2007 Pitch F/X tool, classified Danks’ breaking ball as a slider, but this season, it is classified as a curveball. Whatever you want to call it, the breaking ball is being thrown with nearly the same velocity, however, it’s getting a little more vertical break down in the zone (-1.33 in. as opposed to -0.92 in.) and significantly more late horizontal break (-3.5 in. as opposed to -1.97 in.). Simply put, his breaking ball is a bit sharper than it was last season despite nearly identical velocities.

The addition of a cut fastball has helped Danks against left-handed hitters significantly. Last season, lefties torched Danks to a .281/.362/.521 line with seven home runs in 121 AB’s. This season lefties are hitting just .264/.317/.327 against him with one home run in 110 AB’s. Versus lefties, Danks is throwing his cutter 33.53% of the time, his heater being the only pitch he uses more frequently against them.

His change is his bread and butter pitcher against right-handed hitters. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, many left-handed pitchers use their changeup primarily against right-handed hitters, but this season Danks is getting nearly two more inches of horizontal break on the pitch. He’s thrown the pitch to right-handed hitters 26.76% of the time they’re in the box, as opposed to 8.61% of the time lefties are in the box. With a near 10 MPH differential between his heater and his changeup, he’s kept plenty of right-handed hitters off balance this year.

All in all Danks has improved just about every facet of his game. During the 2007 season he may have relied far too heavily on his fastball, but the addition of a cutter this season is making hitters guess a little more. Add that to improved control, a little more velocity to his fastball and enhanced groundball tendencies and an unpredictable turnaround is well...quite predictable.

Inside the White Sox's Turnaround

Mike Pindelski — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 04:24:19 -0000

Following the White Sox 4-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on June 1st, one could expect eccentric manager Ozzie Guillen to feel a little frustrated. His team had just dropped three games out of a four-game set to the Rays mustering a mere nine runs in the entire series. More revealing of their offensive struggles were the 65 men the Sox left on base during the series. The third game was the epitome of those struggles as the Sox went 2-14 with runners in scoring position eventually losing on a Gabe Gross walk-off home run. Following the game Guillen claimed he wanted moves made that upcoming Tuesday. Coaching changes, player changes, whatever. He claimed that if changes weren’t made by Tuesday, the lineup would be altered.

As usual, this was just another case of Ozzie being Ozzie. General manager Kenny Williams met with Guillen before the opening of a three-game set against the Royals that Tuesday. No moves were made and the batting lineup wasn’t distorted.

Since then the Sox haven’t lost a game. Entering today’s game against the Twins, the Sox were riding a six-game win streak thanks in large part to an offense Guillen said he was sick and tired of watching.

Here is a look at the Sox offense this season before and after the win streak (today’s 7-5 victory against the Twins excluded):

March 31st- June 1st: .247/.325/.402, 30.0 AB/HR, .272 BABIP

June 2nd-June 8th: .346/.400/.627, 18.0 AB/HR, .335 BABIP

As one can see, the Sox offense has been incredibly hot thanks in large part to an upped home run rate and a ridiculous .335 BABIP. Asking whether the Sox can sustain such a high BABIP is a silly, but the team is hitting 17.2% of their batted balls for line drives, so it was expected that a few more balls were going to turn into hits. Conversely, the home run rate may partially be explained by the fact the Sox have played all of their games during the win streak at the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field, but many of the team’s struggling players, such as Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Nick Swisher, have started hitting a few more balls over the fence as well.

Can we expect the Sox offense to remain this hot throughout the course of the season? Of course not. Can John Danks and Jose Contreras pitch sub-3 ERA baseball the rest of the year? Unlikely.

But the Sox offense is better than what it showed during April and May and the team’s rotation and bullpen are good enough to make the club a legitimate threat to make a lot of noise come October.

All and all you have a White Sox team that has quietly mounted a 6.5 game lead in the American League Central and a team that currently has an 87% chance of making the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus.

Baseball fans need to start realizing things are going just as well on the South Side of Chicago as they are on the North Side.

Johan Santana Top Ten

Mike Pindelski — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 14:21:17 -0000

Though the deal isn't officially complete, it appears the Mets are on the verge of acquiring perhaps baseball's most dominant pitcher in Johan Santana.

The Mets have been given a 72-hour window to sign Santana to an extension and given the relatively low price they paid for him, it seems almost inevitable Santana will be pitching many of his games at Shea Stadium in 2008 and beyond.

In some respect, it must be a sad day for Twins fans because Santana's numbers with their team speak for themselves: A 93-44 record, 1308.2 innings pitched, 1381 strikeouts, 141 ERA+ along with two Cy Young Awards and three All-Star game appearances. Not too shabby.

With all of that said, let's reminisce on just how dominant Santana has been over his career looking at the top ten games he's pitched according to game score:

Date: September 3rd, 2005

Opponent: Cleveland Indians

Game Score: 84

Box Score

Santana outdueled Cy Young candidate Kevin Millwood pitching 8 innings, giving up one run on two hits and no walks. He struck out ten Cleveland hitters including Jhonny Peralta four times. The Twins went on to win the game 3-2.

Date: August 15th, 2006

Opponent: Cleveland Indians

Game Score: 84

Box Score

In another good pitchers duel, Santana this time defeated Jake Westbook pitching 8 innings, giving up no runs on three hits and one walk. He struck on nine hitters including Peralta and Kelly Shoppach three times each. Minnesota would win 4-1.

Date: September 3rd, 2004

Opponent: Kansas City Royals

Game Score: 84

Box Score

Santana has always pitched well against Kansas City going 12-3 in his career against the Royals and this was one of his better starts. Santana was flat out nasty pitching 7 innings, giving up no runs on one hit and one walk. Every hitter in the Royals lineup struck out once with Santana compiling a total of 11 punchouts. The Twins would win 2-0.

Date: September 17th, 2005

Opponent: Chicago White Sox

Game Score: 85

Box Score

This is why I, as a White Sox fan, won't be complaining that Santana won't be pitching in the American League Central next season. In one of his many dominating starts against the ChiSox, Santana pitched 8 innings, giving up no runs on four hits and two walks. He struck out 13 hitters including Jermaine Dye four times. The Twins went on to win 5-0.

Date: June 28th, 2002

Opponent: Toronto Blue Jays

Game Score: 88

Box Score

This one was Santana's first real dominant big league start. Just 23-years-old at the time, Santana pitched 8 strong innings against the Jays, giving up no runs on two hits and three walks. He struck out 13 hitters including Jose Cruz Jr. and Vernon Wells each three times. The Twins would win the game 4-0.

Date: June 8th, 2005

Opponent: Arizona Diamondbacks

Game Score: 88

Box Score

Quite possibly Santana finest interleague performance was a blowout. He would pitch a complete game, giving up no runs on four hits and no walks. He struck out nine Diamondback hitters including Royce Clayton three times. The Twins would win easily 10-0.

Date: August 12th, 2005

Opponent: Oakland Athletics

Game Score: 89

Box Score

In yet another pitcher's duel, Santana would this time outpitch Dan Haren. Each starter went nine innings, but Santana was just a hair better giving up no runs on three hits and one walk. He would strike out nine hitters as the Twins went on to win a nail-biter 1-0.

Date: September 5th, 2006

Opponent: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Game Score: 89

Box Score

In his 17th win of the season, Santana would pitch 8 innings against Tampa giving up no runs on two hits and one walk. He struck out 12 hitters and the Twins went on to win 8-0.

Date: July 6th, 2004

Opponent: Kansas City Royals

Game Score: 92

Box Score

In arguably the second best start if his career, Santana dominated the Royals once again pitching a complete game, giving up no runs on three hits and two walks. He struck out 13 hitters including Ken Harvey three times. The Twins would win 4-0.

Date: August 19th, 2007

Opponent: Texas Rangers

Game Score: 95

Box Score

In one of his final home starts in a Twins uniform, Santana was simply was simply brilliant against the Texas Rangers. Throwing 83 of his 112 pitches for strikes, Santana pitched 8 innings giving up no runs on two hits and no walks. He struck out a career high 17 hitters as the Twins won 1-0.

If Johan Santana's days in Minnesota are indeed over, there isn't much question he put together a very memorable run, certainly one of the best we've seen in a while.

Carlos Zambrano Redux

Mike Pindelski — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 06:13:47 -0000

No, I'm not trying to turn Beyond the Box Score into a Cubs blog; I simply wanted to take another look at starter Carlos Zambrano.

Back in April of 2007, I posted a piece regarding Zambrano's rather pessimistic five-year PECOTA forecast. For those of you who need your memory refreshed, here's a look:

As we can see, PECOTA projected good things for Zambrano in 2007, but it certainly accredited a downward trend in his overall production. It also acknowledged the heavy workloads he had accumulated in his career up to that point may very well catch up to him as evident of the sharp decline in projected workload.

With the 2007 season long gone, let's take a look at how PECOTA did:

Nice shootin'. Zambrano's ERA rose for the third year in a row and his peripherals continue to worsen. While PECOTA was nearly dead on with the predicted home run and groundball rates, it was actually a bit generous on the strikeout and walk rates. After showing a steady increase in his ability to strike hitters out, Zambrano's K/9 really went south in 2007 and his walk rate remained at a dangerously high level.

Maybe last season was just a bump in the road for Zambrano. Maybe it was just an aberration and he'll bounce back strongly in 2008. Or is it that PECOTA is onto something here?

Back in May I suggested that Zambrano and the Cubs needed to do two things in order to "avoid" such a harsh projection: Zambrano must control his emotions on the field and the Cubs coaching staff must watch his workload.

Unfortunately, neither of the two were fulfilled in 2007.

I once again have zero statistical evidence to back up this statement, but Zambrano still shows a tendency to pitch with too much emotion. He still overthrows his pitches from time to time which often leads to poor control and far too many free passes. And who can forget about the dugout fight with former Cubs catcher Michael Barrett? As I mentioned earlier, Zambrano's emotions might very well be something holding him back.

More importantly, Zambrano continues to accumulate a ton of mileage on his right arm. From 2004 to 2006, Zambrano placed eleventh, second and second respectively in Total Pitcher Abuse Points Accumulated. Last season we saw more of the same, as Big Z placed second in that category once again.

There were a whopping 15 occasions last year in which Zambrano was forced to throw more than 110 pitches and four occasions in which he was forced to throw more than 122 pitches. I understand that Lou Piniella wants to get innings out of his starters and that it's tough to get those innings when guys like Zambrano are putting runners on base and running into high pitch counts early in the game, but this is getting a little ridiculous.

With Zambrano locked down until 2012 (for $91.5M), it's of the utmost importance the Cubs strongly monitor his workload. He might be one of those guys that can "handle" heavy workloads, but that's a very expensive risk to take.

Though the projection is outdated, if PECOTA predicts Zambrano's five-year projection as well as it did his 2007 season, the Cubs made an awfully big mistake extending his contract into the next half-decade.

Should the Cubs Pursue Brian Roberts?

Mike Pindelski — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 06:10:08 -0000

The Cubs have made plenty of noise this winter with the signings of both Kosuke Fukudome and Kerry Wood and it appears Jim Hendry may not be done yet.

Yesterday rumors begin to swirl around the web regarding the Brian Roberts to Cubs trade rumors. Some sources originally claimed a deal was imminent, while others claimed the Orioles asking price may be a bit too high for Jim Hendry's likings.

Whatever the case, talks are clearly taking place between the two clubs and Brian Roberts may very well start at second base for the Cubs come Opening Day.

Hendry clearly isn't satisfied with what his organization has to offer at second base, but perhaps the best option is right in front of him in Eric Patterson.

Now, I'm not saying Roberts isn't a sensible option. Last season he hit .290/.377/.432 and his VORP of 48.2 runs was good for third best among all major league second basemen. He stole 50 bags at an 88% clip and moving to the National League is something he would likely benefit from. He was clearly a top five second basemen last season and assuming he doesn't lose his line drive stroke, he should be quite good in 2008.

One could argue this is just what the Cubs need. The acquisition of Fukudome gives the Cubs arguably one of the strongest lineups in the National League; a trade for Roberts would really put the icing on the cake.

My question is: Should the Cubs trade top-tier talent for Roberts or is Patterson a better in-house solution?

We all know what Roberts can do, but what about Patterson?

I've written of Corey's younger brother in the past and while he's certainly not the "toolsiest" 24-year old, he does project quite well. Though it's a bit outdated, here is a look at his PECOTA five-year projection:

Patterson's 5-year valuation is quite strong and given the fact he hit .297/.359/.457 in his first full season at AAA, he should project as a pretty solid major leaguer in '08. A few questions have been raised about his ability to play second base, but even with below average defense he's quite a commodity: A young second basemen with strong on-base ability and decent pop making the major league minimum is something a number of GM's would kill for.

I'm interested to see what PECOTA has to say about Patterson for 2008. His 2007 season at AAA was good enough to the point where the Cubs felt comfortable giving him a mere 8 major league at-bats, but he's definitely a better option than Ryan Theriot and Mark DeRosa and I wish he would have seen some time at second for the Cubs last season.

As a stat-oriented fan, Eric Patterson is the type of player I like. However, I must admit that if the Cubs have the opportunity to strike a relatively fair deal with the Orioles to acquire Brian Roberts they should jump all over it.

In my opinion, Roberts would give the Cubs the most potent offense in the National League and he would surely give them the opportunity to make a run at the pennant in 2008.

If the Cubs however can't strike a deal for Roberts, there is no reason Cub fans should start throwing chairs. Assuming Hendry realizes what he has in Patterson the way he did with Geovany Soto, the Cubs have a pretty good in-house solution available for second base.

A Look At Oakland's Rejuvenated Farm System

Mike Pindelski — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 12:12:31 -0000

With the trades of both Dan Haren and Nick Swisher, the Atheltics have completely revamped what looked to be a pretty weak farm system.

Though one can argue the Athletics did not acquire one "sure prospect" in either of the trades, they have acquired a number of talented players, many of which have the ability to make a difference at the major league level. Let's take a look at each of the nine players the A's have acquired in their (possibly first two) big trades of the winter:

Carlos Gonzalez (acquired in Haren trade): The immensely talented 22-year old had a very solid 2007 season split between AA and AAA hitting .288/.336/.478 with 17 homers in an even 500 at-bats. You'd like to see a bit more plate discipline from a corner outfielder (Gonzalez took only 38 walks last season), but his upside is outstanding. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus notes that his tools rate as outstanding and he even makes a Hanley Ramirez comparison claiming that Gonzalez might be ready to produce in the majors despite the fact his previous minor league season wasn't dominant by statistical standards. It's also worth noting Gonzalez has played centerfield before and while he's probably no future gold glove winner, he won't make a fool out of himself out there either.

Brett Anderson (acquired in Haren trade): A former second-round pick, Anderson's first professional season went well as he posted a 3.07 ERA and 125/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 120.1 innings split between two levels of A-ball. Though he's more of a lefty command pitcher without nearly as much upside as the recently acquired Gonzalez or De Los Santos, Goldstein argues he's one the finest pitching prospect in the Oakland system citing his breaking ball and changeup as both plus pitches. It'll be interesting to see how Anderson performs at higher levels of play, but Oakland's got a good one here.

Chris Carter (acquired in Haren trade): I've written of Carter in the past:

As we can see, Carter is not afraid to hack away. He's shown a pretty good eye over two levels as evident of his walk rates, but he's a big time strikeout guy as well. Still far too early to tell, but Carter looks like your prototypical three true outcomes type player. It's worth noting Carter did improve both his walk and strikeout rates in his first full A-ball season.

He had a monster season at A-ball last year as a 20-year old hitting .291/.383/.522 with 55 extra base hits (25 of which went out of the ballpark). He can hit, that's not much of a question, but his speed on the base paths and defense at first base both rate as below average. Possibly the most intriguing aspect of Carter's presence is the pressure he places on Daric Barton. Barton figures to start at first base for the A's come Opening Day, but if his power development continues to stall, Carter may find himself in Oakland's future plans quite soon.

Aaron Cunningham (acquired in Haren trade): Scouts have generally given Cunningham lukewarm reviews due to the fact he doesn't really have a single skill that stands out, but he's a very interesting player on a statistical level. As a 21-year old, Cunningham had a very strong 2007 season hitting .308/.375/.509 in 493 at-bats between A+ and AA. He hit 16 home runs, but added in 31 doubles and 10 triples. Before the season began, PECOTA saw some upside listing Lastings Milledge, Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp and Jeff Francoeur as comparable players.

Dana Eveland (acquired in Haren trade): A possible sleeper in the Haren deal, Eveland hasn't had much success at the major league level, but he boasts career 8.84 K/9 and 2.61 ERA marks in the minors. Eveland has above average stuff for a left-handed pitcher as he can get his fastball in the mid-nineties and usually showcases a pretty good breaking ball. Not likely to start, he could be a pretty effective relief pitcher out of the Arizona bullpen health permitting.

Greg Smith (acquired in Haren trade): I haven't read too many scouting reports on Smith, but from a statistical perspective, it seems he's more of a control lefty that's generally done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark. That might be a bit fluky however, seeing as his groundball rates aren't very eye-popping. He didn't place on Goldstein's top 11 prospects list, so I'm assuming we have nothing special on our hands.

Faustino de los Santos (acquired in Swisher trade): In my opinion, the finest pitching prospect the Athletics have acquired this winter. As a 21-year old, De Los Santos was brilliant at both levels of A-Ball posting a 2.65 ERA and 153/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 122.1 innings. Equally brilliant are his scouting reports as Kevin Goldstein named him the finest prospect in the White Sox system before the trade. His fastball and curve both rate as plus pitches with excellent movement and the development of his changeup is crucial as he moves up to higher levels of play. Goldstein notes that many scouts are torn as to whether his major league future is in the starting rotation or bullpen, but whatever the case, he's a damn good pitching prospect with star potential.

Gio Gonzalez (acquired in Swisher trade): Goldstein placed Gonzalez right behind Los Santos on his White Sox Top Prospects list and it's easy to see why. As a 21-year old in his second season at AA, he pitched very well posting a 3.18 ERA and 185/57 strikeout to walk ratio in 150 innings. Goldstein mentions that while his changeup is still a work in progress, his fastball and curveball both rate as plus pitches, his curve possibly being one of the best pitches in all of the minor leagues. On the downside he's a flyball pitcher that was having his second go-round at the AA level. Like Los Santos, Gonzalez might eventually end up in the bullpen, but for now he'll remain a starter and he could very well make his first major league start next season.

Ryan Sweeney (acquired in Swisher trade): Sweeney has always had the skills scouts love, but the production, particularly in the power department, just hasn't emerged yet even after two stops at AAA. At 22 years old, he's still plenty young and may just be a late bloomer, but many are having their doubts especially after he hit .270/.347/.398 in his second try at AAA. Things wouldn't look so bleak if he could play centerfield, but his defensive abilities truly limit him to a corner spot.

As a whole, that's an impressive bunch of young players even when you consider the fact they have traded arguably their finest starting pitcher and finest offensive position player.

For better or for worse, Billy Beane has a plan and he's certainly showing that he has the guts to carry it out this winter.

A Quick Look at the White Sox/D'Backs Trade

Mike Pindelski — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 13:33:54 -0000

So yeah, this one's a bit late, but being a White Sox fan I feel compelled to write about Monday's trade between Chicago and Arizona.

First let's look at things from Arizona's perspective.

With Eric Byrnes, Chris Young and Justin Upton each patrolling the Diamondback outfield, numerous baseball officials and those around the blogosphere felt the D'Backs would try to package Quentin and Double-A outfielder Carlos Gonzalez in a trade to acquire a much needed starter. Things obviously didn't work that way so the D'Backs settled for the lesser-known Chris Carter coming from the White Sox farm system.

Only 21 years of age, Carter still has a long way to go before reaching the majors, however he's already developed a reputation as your classic first baseman who can flat out rake, but offers very little on the speed and defense front.

Here's a look at Carter's numbers thus far into his short career:

As we can see, Carter is not afraid to hack away. He's shown a pretty good eye over two levels as evident of his walk rates, but he's a big time strikeout guy as well. Still far too early to tell, but Carter looks like your prototypical three true outcomes type player. Its worth noting Carter did improve both his walk and strikeout rates in his first full A-ball season.

Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein recently rated Carter as the #4 prospect in the White Sox system citing his tremendous strength, power to all fields, ability to draw walks and the fact he has no particular weakness against left or right-handed pitchers as his primary strengths. His poor defense, lack of speed and high strikeout frequency are his obvious weaknesses. Goldstein also notes Carter should begin the 2008 season at High-A ball.

Carter doesn't figure to have an immediate impact with the D'Backs, but Conor Jackson needs to pick things up if he wants to have any sort of long-term career with Arizona.

For Kenny Williams, he can certainly breathe a little easier now. In my opinion, the White Sox needed to pursue both a centerfielder and a leftfielder when the winter meetings began. One down, possibly another to go.

Quentin figures to step right into the White Sox vacant left field position, a place where players such as Scott Podsednik (-4.9 VORP), Rob Mackowiak (6.1 VORP) and Andy Gonzalez (-18.6 VORP) have recently called their stomping grounds.

The 25 year old didn't by any means put up All-Star caliber numbers last season; injuries and such limited him to a .214/.298/.339 line in 229 AB's. However, he went under the knife this past October to repair his non-throwing arm and boasts a career .312/.427/.526 career MiLB line.

Assuming Quentin is in tip-top shape when the season begins, he's easily going to outproduce the like of Podsednik, Mackowiak and Gonzalez and could be a nice little bargain for the White Sox as he'll certainly make less than $1M big ones next season.

As a Sox fan, I love this deal. Quentin will provide a little youth to an aging White Sox lineup and he's years away from testing free agent waters.

The only knock against Quentin is that while he'll likely be an above average corner outfielder next season (health permitting), he doesn't project as much of a superstar.

The Sox however, who received a .256/.322/.399 line from their leftfielders last season, will be ecstatic with any above average play at that position.

Just for kicks, Quentin's 2008 Bill James Handbook Projection looks like this: .263/.341/.455 with 13 home runs in 380 AB's.

I personally feel that projection is a little light on workload and batting average. For a guy that posted a MiLB batting average of .312, I expect a little better than the '08 Bill James Handbook.