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Mike Rogers

Nov 13, 2008 Dec 15, 2009 10 714

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I was in the forums at Project Prospect (a site that I sometimes write at) and asked Steve Carter, who breaks down the swing of various prospects for the site about Austin Jackson. This was his report.

Cliffnotes version: He's not impressed. I've always looked at Austin Jackson through a statistical light and not liked him. Steve does it through scouting and sees big holes in his swing. Hey, at least he's only the starting CFer in 2010 (most likely). No biggie.

3 days ago Baseball_tiny Mike Rogers 6 comments 0 recs

Bobbycrosby

I don't think Bobby Crosby would be a worth-while addition to the Tigers roster.

9 days ago Baseball_tiny Mike Rogers 2 comments 0 recs

The idea that they would give away a player of value (Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson) if you'll take one of their many bad contracts (Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Magglio Ordonez)? Hasn't even been discussed, people inside and outside the organization say, and at this point doesn't interest them.

14 days ago Baseball_tiny Mike Rogers 0 comments 0 recs

Joe Mauer tipping signs to Jason Kubel. I have zero problems with this. Love it.

2 months ago Baseball_tiny Mike Rogers 0 comments 0 recs

Tigers Rearrange Furniture and Acquire Aubrey Huff

Baltimore Orioles' Aubrey Huff walks to the dugout after discovering he was just compared to a recliner in a terrible analogy. He is not happy. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Baltimore Orioles' Aubrey Huff walks to the dugout after discovering he was just compared to a recliner in a terrible analogy. He is not happy. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Dave Dombrowski cleaned out his basement and decided to rid himself of the recliner he had been meaning to get rid of for a few weeks because he didn't have a couch. His neighbor Andy McPhail was walking out of his house with a recliner to leave by the curb as well. After some heated discussion on which shade of orange looks better, Dombrowski agreed to take the recliner off of MacPhail's hands. "This'll go great in my basement! I could really use a nice, new recliner down there!"

 

In reality where Major League Baseball General Managers don't live on the same street and amidst all of the hoopla on what draft picks will or won't sign, Dombrowski pulled the trigger on a deal to acquire left-handed "slugger" Aubrey Huff from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for relief prospect Brett Jacobson. This would be a great deal if, you know, there weren't already numerous in-house options to pick from.

Aubrey Huff's value gets explored after the jump (and I promise, no more made up story lines in my mind)...

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1 comment  |  0 recs |

1984_cy_young

1984 Cy Young. I forgot to put it on the graph, but the x-axis is WAR. And that is courtesy of some cool guy named Rally.

By the by, this is when Rick Sutcliffe went 16-1 with Chicago and won. He was -0.2 with Cleveland to start the year.

Order of finish:

Rick Sutcliffe, 24 first place votes, 120 points
Dwight Gooden, 0 first place votes, 45 points
Bruce Sutter, 0 first place votes, 33 points
Joaquin Andujar, 0 first place votes, 12 points
Rich Gossage, 0 first place votes, 3 pionts
Mario Soto, 0 first place votes, 2 points

4 months ago Baseball_tiny Mike Rogers 1 comment 0 recs

Valuing the Jake Peavy Trade, Again

Please welcome Mike Rogers to the BtB family.  Mike's been around in the comments sections a lot recently, and writes for two other blogs, Fire Jim Leyland and Friar Forecast.  I'm a big fan of Mike's ability to talk baseball from a smart angle without making the smart angle the subject of his writing.  He'll be tackling current events, with the occasional unique research piece tossed in for good measure.  Say hi, readers...

The San Diego Padres managed to get Jake Peavy to OK a deal sending him to the Chicago White Sox minutes before the trade deadline expired at 4 p.m. EST last Friday. Peavy nixed virtually the same deal back in May.  Sky valued him at about 3.8 Wins Above Replacement with some generous assumptions going in Peavy's favor two months ago.

Then Peavy tore the posterior tibialis tendon in his right ankle, and is on the shelf until the end of August at the earliest. But that doesn't stop the unpredictable Kenny Williams from doing, well, the unpredictable.  What's the verdict, monetarily, on this deal? Win or loss for the White Sox?

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36 comments  |  0 recs |

Retired Hitters Wins Above Replacement Per Team

After posting a fanshot of the WAR for hitters who have had their numbers retired by the Detroit Tigers, Sky noted he'd like something regarding all MLB teams. That's what I've done and have a few graphs handy.

Predictably, the New York Yankees have retired the most hitters among all current Major League franchises with 12. Even as a Tigers fan, it caught me off guard that the Tigers were 2nd with 10 hitters retired. Click all images to enlarge.

Retiredhittesperteam_medium

via img7.imageshack.us

More after the jump...

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20 comments  |  4 recs

Tigersalltimewar

Detroit Tigers All Time WAR per Sean Smith's database..

5 months ago Baseball_tiny Mike Rogers 11 comments 0 recs

Adjusted Point Per Game Rates

James' post prompted me to look into the scoring environments that each of the top 20 in PPG from his post and adjust them. So, I've done that.

Basically, I've gone through Hockey Reference and gotten the average Total Goals Per Game for the league in each year from 1960-2009. I then averaged out the scoring environments for a player's career span.

For instance, Wayne Gretzky played from 1979-80 until 1998-99. From 80-99, the average scoring environment was exactly 7.00. For someone like Mario Lemieux who had his career interrupted, I simply took the average scoring environment from 1984-85 to 1993-94, then from 95-97, and then 2000-2006. I then averaged those together to get a total scoring environment of 6.28 total goals per game during his career.

I believe the way to adjust this is to take a player's points per game total multiplied by the current scoring environment, then divided by the player's career scoring environment. I used the "current environment" to be the scoring environment to be from 2005-06 through the 2008-09 season.

An example is Dale Hawerchuk and his 1.186 PPG. He played from 1981-82 through 1996-97. The average scoring environment over that period of time was 7.17 total goals per game. To adjust to today's (06-09) rates, it's simply this (someone correct me if I'm wrong):

1.186*5.86/7.17 = 0.969.

The 5.86 is the total GPG from 06-09 and the 0.969 is his new scoring rate adjusted to now-a-days.

The new Top 20, sorted by an Adjusted Point Per Game Total:

Name

From

To

GP

PPG

Environment

2006-09

Adjusted

PPG Diff

Prev Rank

New Rank

Rank Diff

Mario Lemieux

1985

2006

915

1.883

6.28

5.86

1.757

-0.126

2

1

1

Wayne Gretzky

1980

1999

1487

1.921

7.00

5.86

1.608

-0.313

1

2

-1

Sidney Crosby

2006

2009

280

1.379

5.86

5.86

1.379

0.000

5

3

2

Peter Forsberg

1995

2008

706

1.254

5.61

5.86

1.309

0.056

11

4

7

Bobby Orr

1967

1979

657

1.393

6.35

5.86

1.285

-0.107

4

5

-1

Evgeni Malkin

2007

2009

232

1.263

5.76

5.86

1.285

0.022

9

6

3

Alex Ovechkin

2006

2009

315

1.279

5.86

5.86

1.279

0.000

7

7

0

Jaromir Jagr

1991

2008

1273

1.256

5.92

5.86

1.243

-0.013

10

8

2

Mike Bossy

1978

1987

752

1.497

7.50

5.86

1.170

-0.327

3

9

-6

Eric Lindros

1993

2007

760

1.138

5.79

5.86

1.152

0.014

19

10

9

Joe Sakic

1989

2009

1378

1.191

6.06

5.86

1.152

-0.039

15

11

4

Phil Esposito

1964

1981

1281

1.241

6.37

5.86

1.142

-0.099

12

12

0

Marcel Dionne

1972

1989

1348

1.314

7.18

5.86

1.072

-0.242

6

13

-7

Steve Yzerman

1984

2006

1514

1.159

6.47

5.86

1.050

-0.109

18

14

4

Peter Stastny

1981

1995

977

1.268

7.35

5.86

1.011

-0.257

8

15

-7

Kent Nilsson

1980

1995

553

1.241

7.33

5.86

0.992

-0.249

13

16

-3

Pat LaFontaine

1984

1998

865

1.171

6.95

5.86

0.987

-0.184

17

17

0

Guy Lafleur

1972

1991

1126

1.202

7.18

5.86

0.981

-0.221

14

18

-4

Dale Hawerchuk

1982

1997

1188

1.186

7.17

5.86

0.969

-0.217

16

19

-3

Bernie Federko

1977

1990

1000

1.130

7.42

5.86

0.892

-0.238

20

20

0

 

Environment is the scoring environment during the career of the player. Adjusted is a player's PPG totals adjusted for todays scoring rates and Prev Ranking is their ranking in unadjusted PPG while New Rank is their, obviously, current ranking in adjusted PPG. The final column, Diff, is the amount a player rose or fell by adjusting for the environment. Like I had thought in my comment on James' initial post, Eric Lindros' 1.14 PPG total (actually 1.138) and Bernie Federko's 1.13 (actually 1.130) were not that close. Federko's adjusted rates put him last on this list, dropping his PPG total 0.238 -- which over the course of 82 games is just about 20 points. Meanwhile, Big E played during a defensive-era ushered in after the strike-shortened season in the middle-1990's, and gives his PPG rates a boost. His PPG totals were pretty much on par, as the scoring environment he played in (5.79) isn't that much lower than it's been since the lockout. However, he does move up the list 9 spots due to guys like Marcel Dionne, Peter Stastny, Kent Nilsson and Guy Lafleur dropping due to playing in high offensive eras.

At the very least, this is an interesting way to look at players from different eras in a more favorable light.

2 comments  |  5 recs