SB Nation User Blog: MikeE

Mock/Real/Shadow Draft Comparison: Pirates

MikeE — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 00:21:00 -0000

I did a shadow draft for the Pirates, and I thought I'd steal a page from John's book and post the comparisons here, with the actual round and slot selected following the pick:

Mock:

Josh Vitters, 3B, California HS (1.3)
Kevin Patterson, 1B, Alabama HS (24.25)
Brandon Hamilton, RHP, Alabama HS (1supp.30)
Austin Romine, C, California HS (2.30)
Connor Graham, RHP, Miami (O) (5.8)

Shadow:

Jason Heyward, OF, Georgia HS (1.14)
Kentrail Davis, OF, Alabama HS (14.8)
Victor Sanchez, 3B, California HS (25.3)
Charlie Furbush, LHP, LSU (4.27)
Kyle Blair, RHP, California HS (5.22)

Actual:

Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson U (1.4)
Duke Welker, RHP, U of Arkansas (2.4)
Brian Friday, SS, Rice U (3.4)
Quincy Lattimore, CF, NC HS (4.4)
Andrew Walker, C, TCU (5.4)

I like the mock draft better than my shadow draft, all things considered (although in the shadow I didn't have a shot at the players picked in the mock, except for Patterson), and I like both of them far better than I like what the Pirates actually did. I think I overdrafted Sanchez.

For the real picks, Lattimore in the 4th and Walker in the 5th were serious overdrafts, IMO. Lattimore doesn't have the range or arm for center, from what I've heard, and may not develop enough bat for a corner position. Walker's an OK catcher but doesn't really have anything that stands out; I don't see anything to recommend him over Alex Garabedian, for example, who went three round later.

Final Pre-Draft Baltimore MOD

MikeE — Thu, 31 May 2007 14:14:21 -0000

We're going to have to wait and see what the Cubs and (especially) the Pirates do in front of us, but I'm still leaning toward a hitter at #5.

Previous MODs are at
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/5/24/164658/528

and
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/5/18/152452/057

Any and all last-second thoughts will be appreciated.

Baltimore MOD #2

MikeE — Thu, 24 May 2007 20:46:58 -0000

Questions for this go-round:

Hitter or pitcher at #5?
If Wieters and Moustakas are both available, which one?
If Moskos and Detwiler are both available, which one?
Any thoughts on the 4th and 5th round picks?

My answers:

Hitter, because there aren't too many in the organization.
Moustakas, because I think he's the better athlete and has more upside.
Moskos has faced better competition and has more polished pitches; Detwiler has better raw stuff. I usually prefer the guy with the better stuff.
It's hard to guess who might be around, but let me throw some names into the pot:

Dan Duffy, LHP, Lompoc, CA
Sean Koecheler, RHP, Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Bo Greenwell (Mike's son), OF/1B, Alva, FL
DJ LeMahieu, SS, Birmingham, MI
Cody Scarpetta, RHP, Rockford, IL
Michael Southern, RHP, West Hills JC (CA)
David Mailman, 1B/OF, Charlotte, NC
Chad Bettis, RHP, Lubbock, TX

I personally don't like to take college players after the first three rounds, because there's usually a reason why they're still available at that point; I'd rather take a flyer on a HS talent who might still develop. However, I'll listen to any arguments on behalf of anyone who might be around at #130 and #160.

Baltimore MOD

MikeE — Fri, 18 May 2007 19:24:52 -0000

Greetings!

We (the Orioles) have the fifth pick in the first round of the draft. I think we're pretty deep in pitching prospects, but we need some impact hitters here. The best hitter in this draft, Vitters, will be gone before we pick, I'm sure. So, where do we go? Do we settle for a bat with lesser potential that might be an overdraft at #5? Or do we go with a pitcher?

I've identified seven guys who will likely be there when we pick. I'm leaning toward one of the California HS hitters - Dominguez or Moustakas, and no, the fact that Angelos is Greek has nothing to do with the latter - but what do you guys think?

Poll

Who should the Orioles take at #5?

Ross Detweiler

5 votes

Daniel Moskos

5 votes

Other

2 votes

Matt Dominguez

0 votes

Jason Heyward

4 votes

Beau Mills

0 votes

Mike Moustakas

15 votes

Andrew Brackman

4 votes

35 votes | Poll has closed