SB Nation User Blog: Mikeybags84

Willie's bullpen usage...very interesting

Mikeybags84 — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 19:41:48 -0000

I saw this in the comments by a user on Metsblog, and thought it was very interesting and relevant so I'm posting it here:

"In regards to a post at MetsBlog earlier today, MetsBlog reader Jamie wrote...

After reading an article about Ned Yost's bullpen usage, I wanted (naturally) to check out Willie's. The following info is the Leverage of each of the Mets bullpen appearances. Leverage is defined thusly:

Leverage measures how important the situations a reliever has been used in are. A leverage of 1.00 is the same importance as the start of a game. Leverage values below one represent situations that are less important than the start of a game (such as mop-up innings in a blowout). Leverage values above one represent situations with more importance (such as a closer protecting a one-run lead with bases loaded in the 9th inning).

Mathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring (or allowing) one run at the start of the game.

Now, are you ready for this? Think you know how it'll shake out? Maybe you'll be surprised...

Games/Innings pitched/Leverage (min. 20 IP)
1. Billy Wagner 63/ 65.3 1.69
2. Aaron Heilman 75 /79.0 1.41
3. Jorge Sosa 38 109.3 /1.35
4. Pedro Feliciano 72 59.7 1.18
5. Joseph Smith 49 /41.7 1.11
6. Scott Schoeneweis 65 54.7 /1.05
7. Guillermo Mota 48 53.3 0.95
8. Aaron Sele 32 /51.0 0.62

In other words, these guys appear in the same order that most of us would rank the ability of each arm in the pen. The best reliever (Wags) has been used in the situations with the highest leverage, and the worst (Mota and Sele) have been used in situations with the lowest leverage."

Going to Milwaukee!

Mikeybags84 — Tue, 31 Jul 2007 17:37:07 -0000

I live in Chicago, and earlier this year bought some cheap tix (planning on moving up ;) ) for tonight's game in Milwaukee. Just so happens that I might be there for Tommy's 300th win! I'm hoping the offense shows up and gives me something to be excited about, especially D-Dub, because I'll be sporting my new jersey bearing his name. My Cub fan friend will be joining me. Should be a good time!

Any other Met fans from up there?

Barfield Traded

Mikeybags84 — Thu, 09 Nov 2006 04:22:13 -0000

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2654211

"Barfield to Indians for Kouzmanoff, Triple-A pitcher"

CLEVELAND -- Just like his dad, Josh Barfield made it to the big leagues. Now, he's following his father to the American League.

Barfield, who as a rookie second baseman helped San Diego win a division title, was acquired Wednesday by the Cleveland Indians, who traded infielder Kevin Kouzmanoff and right-hander Andrew Brown to the Padres.

The 23-year-old Barfield, who played in 150 games last season, was stunned by the deal.

"I had no idea when I got the call this morning," he said. "It took me by surprise. But I know it's going to be a better situation for me."

Barfield batted .280 with 32 doubles, 13 homers and 58 RBI in helping the Padres win the NL West. The son of former AL home run champion Jesse Barfield also had 21 steals and scored 72 times.

"I grew up in the American League," said Barfield, who after being told he had been traded made his first phone call to his father in Houston. "My dad was so excited."

The elder Barfield, who led the AL with 40 homers in 1986 for Toronto, never played in Jacobs Field but coached there with Seattle. He told his son that he's headed to a hitter-friendly ballpark.

The younger Barfield showed some power last season, but some of the balls he hit in San Diego didn't carry deep enough in Petco Park. At the Jake, he could hit more homers -- though he doesn't expect to match his dad's power.

"We're two totally different players," he said. "I'm not a 40-homer guy like him."

Barfield will help Cleveland's defense, too. His .987 fielding percentage -- he had nine errors in 684 total chances -- was third best among NL second basemen. One of the Indians' biggest deficiencies last season was their horrid fielding up the middle, which should improve dramatically because of Barfield's speed and range.

Cleveland general manager Mark Shapiro has quickly crossed off the top item on his offseason shopping list.

The Indians didn't have an up-and-coming second baseman in their minor-league system and would have been faced with finding one among a weak free-agent class. But in Barfield, they got a young, inexpensive player with plenty of upside in the short and long-term.

"The package that this guy brings complements our existing core of players," Shapiro said.

Last season, Shapiro traded utility infielder Brandon Phillips to Cincinnati, then dealt second baseman Ronnie Belliard to St. Louis for Hector Luna before the July 31 deadline. The Indians, one of baseball's biggest disappointments in '06 after winning 93 games in '05, used rookie Joe Inglett and Luna over the final two months at second.

Inglett will likely platoon as a middle infielder next season.

Shapiro's next target will probably be help for Cleveland's bullpen.

"It remains our biggest challenge of the offseason," Shapiro said. "There are not clear answers out there, and it will involve us exploring every alternative."

Kouzmanoff, who can play third base but has been at first during the Arizona Fall League, swung his way into the Indians' plans last season.

Called up from the minors on Sept. 2, he became the first player in history to hit a grand slam on the first pitch he saw as a major-leaguer, connecting against Texas. The 25-year-old batted a combined .379 with 22 homers and 75 RBI in 94 games between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Buffalo before being brought up.

The Indians were out of options on Brown, who appeared in nine games for them in 2006. At Buffalo, the 25-year-old went 5-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 39 games.

"We traded a lot," Shapiro said. "We gave up players we liked to get a player we think is going to be a very good major-leaguer."

The Padres also hired a new manager Wednesday, picking Los Angeles Angels pitching coach Bud Black to replace Bruce Bochy.

Barfield was selected by San Diego in the fourth round of the 2001 draft. He was named MVP of the California League in 2003 after batting .337 and leading the league in doubles, RBI and hits."

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That sucks, I would have loved to find a way to trade for a guy like Barfield for 2nd. I wonder if Omar inquired about him. Either way, I'm not sure what we'd be willing to give that would be as good as Kouzmanoff, without giving up one of our real big guns. Would have been nice to pull a guy like him out though, don't you think?