SB Nation User Blog: MilCardFan

Hypothetical Vikings v. Packers Playoff

MilCardFan — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 02:38:39 -0000

Okay, do I think it will happen? it's a possibility. If it does happen, what would you expect? The Packers aren't the same team as they were when they played the Vikings earlier in the year, so would the outcome be anydifferent?

In a nutshell, I think the Vikings win. Aaron Rodgers is a good quarterback, and he's put up good numbers, but I wonder how he would do facing Favre...again, but with the intensity and pressure of the playoffs.

I'm just not sold on Rodgers' ability to win a pressure packed game. He hasn't done it yet, and when the game has been put on his shoulders, he's folded. In both games against the Vikings, which were as close to playoff games as he's been in, he played tentatively, took a lot of unnecessary sacks trying to make a play, and couldn't deliver in the clutch.

I don't see the Vikings running away with the game, but I don't see Rodgers orchestrating a winning drive if he had to, either.

31-23, Vikings.

Poll

How would you see a potential Packers-Vikings post-season game playing out?

An Open Letter to the Chicken Little Crowd

MilCardFan — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:22:56 -0000

Dear 'The Sky is Falling' Fringe of Viking Fandom,

Please, for the love of all that is good and holy, shut up. The only thing more negative than you is our national unemployment rate. And although that seems to be improving, you do not. I can only imagine the suckitude you will take away from today's evisceration of one of the better teams of the AFC. Let me use my crystal asshat to see what you'll say:

1) Favre is having his annual, terrible December.

2) AP is terrible and/or over-rated

3) Childress sucks.

This is one of the best Vikings teams that I have ever watched. They are fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball, and I believe the defense answered the question as to whether or not they could bounce back from EJ Henderson's injury.

If you're not on the positivity train, go away. Thanks.

Sincerely,

Every other Viking Fan

What If Sports Simulations

MilCardFan — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 00:07:22 -0000

So, I ran some game simulations between the Vikes-Saints and the Vikes-Colts over at whatifsports.com. I ran 10 games against the Saints on a neutral field, 10 games in Minnesota, and 10 games at New Orleans. For the Vikes-Colts, it was 10 games on a neutral field.

The neutral field I chose was Joe Robbie (Land Shark) Stadium in Miami, because, well, you know, it just seemed like a good field to pick. Not that there's any correlation to my choosing of that stadium and where the Super Bowl is going to be played.

Anyways, on a neutral field, the Vikes beat the Saints 6 out of 10 times. In New Orleans, Saints won 6 of 10. In Minnesota, Vikes won 6 out of 10.

Against the Colts, on a neutral field, Vikes won 7 out of 10.

What does this mean? It means running simulation games of the Vikings is more entertaining than the real live Thanksgiving Day games the NFL is playing. God, are the Raiders and the Lions horrible.

Oh, and the 75 Vikings beat the 75 Steelers 6 out of 10 times on a neutral field. Drew Pearson can rot in Hell.

On that happy note, Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Comparing '98 to '09, Defense

MilCardFan — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:32:53 -0000

So here’s the second half of the 98 vs. 09 team comparison. Let’s look at the defense. The first part can be found here.

DL: John Randle/Tony Williams/Jerry Ball/Derrick Alexander vs. Ray Edwards/Kevin Williams/Pat Williams/Jared Allen. There’s only one guy on the 1998 team I would take over the 2009 version, and that’s John Randle, and he’d rotate with Pat Williams, because as much as I loved JR, you could run right at him. He was listed a starter at defensive end according to pro-football-reference.com, but I remember him starting at tackle and moving to end on passing downs, where he was a lot less effective. Which leads directly to depth. The ’98 team had to essentially neutralize their most effective pass rusher on passing downs, because they had a stronger DT in Tony Williams than they did with back-up ends Duane Clemons and Stalin Colinet. The depth of the 2009 line is between impressive and remarkable, with former first rounder Jimmy Kennedy and solid run-stopper Fred Evans at tackle, and there’s little drop-off pass rush wise with Brian Robison on the field as opposed to Ray Edwards. But the kick return capability does take a hit. Jared Allen and Kevin Williams are the best in the business, and the 2009 line is the most impressive collection of defensive linemen since the Purple People Eaters.

LB: Dixon Edwards/Ed McDaniel/Dwayne Rudd vs. Ben Leber/EJ Henderson/Chad Greenway. Again, I’ll take everyone on the 2009 unit over the 1998 team. Eddie Mac had a Pro Bowl year in 1998, but I think Henderson is the better all-around player. Leber is one of the most under-rated LB’s in the NFL and plays both the run and pass solidly. Chad Greenway is on the verge of multiple Pro Bowls, and was a solid draft pick, rookie year knee injury aside. Dixon Edwards was okay, and Dwayne Rudd actually had a good year—this was the pre ‘celebrate like you won the Super Bowl after you tackled a guy 25 yards downfield’ Dwayne Rudd.

DB: Corey Fuller/Jimmy Hitchcock/Robert Griffith/Orlando Thomas vs. Antoine Winfield/Cedric Griffin/Madieu Williams/Tyrell Johnson. I like the 1998 squad here, with the exception of Antoine Winfield. The safety position is the weak link on the 2009 squad, and it was the strong suit of the ’98 Vikings. Fuller and Hitchcock both had career years in 1998, and Fuller cashed in during free agency. Jimmy Hitchcock returned three of his seven picks for a TD, then remembered he was Jimmy Hitchcock and returned to his mediocre self the following year. But he had a truly extraordinary 1998 season. Antoine Winfield is arguably the best all-around defensive back in the NFL, and Cedric Griffin’s talent level is on the upswing, and I would take Winfield over Fuller or Hitchcock, but overall the ’98 unit is hands down better.

Coaching: Dennis Green/Brian Billick (OC)/Foge Fazio (DC) vs. Brad Childress/Darrell Bevell (OC)/Leslie Frazier (DC). Well, I never thought I’d get into a ‘who’s better’ debate between The Sheriff and Chilly. Denny takes a fair amount of criticism over a lot of different things, and deservedly so, but he is the second winningest coach in franchise history. Overall, good in game manager unless it was a pressure situation, and a good evaluator of offensive talent. He was horrible, for the most part, in big games, and couldn’t develop a defensive lineman to save his life. See above when discussing John Randle shuttling between tackle and end; that really hurt the 1998 team. Oh, and Demetrious Underwood, really? Really?! Chilly is a much better overall evaluator of talent, and now that he has guys to run his system, his offense is humming. He loses points with his inability to develop Tarvaris Jackson, but that’s not even close to the Underwood debacle. Chilly had to get rid of a lot of old attitudes and prima donnas when he got here, and he’s done a very good job of assembling talent on both sides of the ball, whereas Denny looked at defense as an annoyance. Of course, having Zygi Wilf as an owner helps. Denny couldn’t win a playoff game, but he went regularly, and right away. Chilly has yet to win a playoff game and it took him three years to get there, so edge to Denny there. Overall, I’ll give it to Denny, but get back to me when the Chilly era has ended and we can do a complete comparison. If we’re talking about a one year snapshot, I’ll take Chilly. He took the big risk, and a lot of flak, for bringing in Favre, but it’s worked better than anyone would’ve thought nine games in.

Billick definitely got the most out of the offensive talent of the ’98 squad, and parlayed that reputation into a head coaching gig with the Ravens, and then a Super Bowl championship a couple of years later. Billick never found that potent an offense again, but in ’98 he was in a zone. Every play seemed to work, and the Vikes were unstoppable offensively. Bevell? I still don’t know if he has full autonomy to call the plays, and how much input Childress has for that matter, the same holds true with Denny and Billick). The 2009 offense is good, very good, but it’s not the point a minute explosion the ’98 team was, so give me Billick. I really, really disliked Fazio’s ‘bend but don’t break’ mentality, and it came back to haunt that team in the NFC Championship. That said, you could argue that Fazio got better results defensively with less talent than a lot of guys. Foge had to make do with what he had, (converted WR Robert Tate as a DB, shuttling Randle, no depth) and he did pretty good, for the most part. Leslie Frazier is a lot more aggressive than Fazio, but then again he has a lot more talent and depth than Foge did. I’ll take Frazier over Foge, just because I’d rather have a guy that’s calling a game to win it as opposed to calling not to lose it.

I thought that before I did this comparison, the 1998 team was pretty much head and shoulders above the 2009 squad, with the exceptions of one or two positions. After looking at them a lttle more closely, I think the opposite is true. Now, this doesn't mean that the Vikings will go 15-1 and go to the NFC Championship (or farther), but it does mean that they definitely have the potential to.

But they still gotta play the games.

Comparing 2009 to 1998

MilCardFan — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 23:19:07 -0000

The Vikings find themselves at 8-1, and in control of their playoff destiny. The last time the Vikings started out 8-1 was 1998, which was one of the great all-time Vikings teams. Yeah, I know how I ended, but it was still a great team. I wanted to compare this team to that team to see who, theoretically, is better. Today I’ll do offense and special teams. My next post will be defense and coaching staff.

QB: Randall Cunningham vs. Brett Favre. This position is eerily similar, in more ways than one. Cunningham wasn’t even the starter at the beginning of the year, but took over when Brad Johnson got hurt against the St Louis Rams early in the year. Favre wasn’t even on the roster come training camp, but came in and was anointed the starter upon his arrival. Both players are or were in the twilight of their career, and both are having/did have a late career renaissance. Who’s better? Statistically, it’s Cunnigham, but Favre brings that ‘we won’t lose’ swagger to the team, nad he did it right away, and he’s having one of his best statistical seasons in his hall of fame career. In my opinion, the ’98 squad didn’t really develop that attitude until the Randy Moss coming out party in Lambeau on Monday Night. I’d give the slightest of edge to the 2009 squad on this position, but by a whisker.

RB: Robert Smith/Leroy Hoard/Chuck Evans vs. Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor/Nafahu Tahi. Instinct says the 2009 squad is better because of Peterson, but dig a little deeper, and you can make a very legitimate argument for the ’98 team. Taylor and Peterson are averaging 117 yards per game, Hoard and Smith average 115. Receiving? Slight edge to the ’09 guys, but by only by about 13 yards, or one first down. Robert Smith was the speed guy, LeRoy Hoard was the power guy, and Evans was a phenomenal blocker. Peterson is the best combination of speed and power to hit the NFL (or a defensive back) since Walter Payton, and Taylor is the consummate ‘role-player’ veteran who can catch the ball and pass block second to none. And if you need a yard and a half on a dump off pass, Nafahu Tahi is your man. Again, I’m going to take the 2009 group, but only by a whisker.

Receivers: Randy Moss/Cris Carter/Jake Reed/Andrew Glover vs. Bernard Berrian/Sidney Rice/Percy Harvin/Visanthe Shiancoe. Um, with all due respect to the 2009 guys, this really isn’t very close. Sidney Rice is having a breakout year, Percy Harvin has the ability to score every time he touches the ball, Bernard Berrian is a solid deep threat, and Shiancoe is a favorite red zone target, but other than maybe Shiancoe, I wouldn’t take any 2009 receiver over their 1998 counterpart. If you want to argue Rice over Jake Reed, I could listen to that argument--if Rice was the #3 receiver.

Offensive Line: Todd Steussie/Randall McDaniel/Jeff Christy/ Davis Dixon/Korey Stringer vs. Bryant McKinnie/Steve Hutchinson/John Sullivan/Anthony Herrera/Phil Loadholt. I’ll take Steussie over McKinnie (this was the pre false start days for Stew), McDaniel over Hutch (there’s only two guards in team history better than Hutch, Ed White and McDaniel), Christy over Sully, Dixon over Herrera based on run blocking ability, and Stringer over Loadholt, although Loadholt has been very impressive at times. The ’98 squad was a veteran group with three All-Pros (Steussie, McDaniel, and Christy) and two very strong vets in Stringer and Dixon. The ’09 team has Hutch and McKinnie, but a lot of inexperience on the right side. The ’09 group is by no means bad; in many ways they’ve out-performed their expectations, it’s just that they’re not as good from tackle to tackle as the ’98 team.

Special Teams: Gary Anderson/Mitch Berger/David Palmer vs. Ryan Longwell/Chris Kluwe/Percy Harvin/punt returner of the week. It’s a shame that Gary Anderson’s career is remembered for one field goal he missed as opposed to all the ones he made for the Vikings, but it is what it is. Longwell has been as good as Anderson, with his only miss coming from a block against San Francisco. Berger is better than Kluwe, and Percy Harvin is as exciting a returner the Vikings have had since…David Palmer. But Harvin’s leaps and bounds better than Palmer, and I’d take him over anyone the Vikes have had returning kicks. But Palmer is a much better punt returner than either Darius Reynaud or Jaymar Johnson, so Palmer wins that battle.

Just wondering what you guys think.

Good-Bye, Bad-Bye

MilCardFan — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:35:26 -0000

I want to use this space to write about the Vikings and how they performed coming out of the bye week. This is the 20th anniversary of the bye week in the NFL schedule, and it came at the perfect time for the Minnesota Vikings. That said, it never comes at a good time for us, the fans. Quite frankly, the bye week sucks.

I’ve been married for twenty years, or longer than the bye week has been around, and every year the bye week sucks, and every year the overall suckitude of the bye week gets worse. Well, this year was okay, because both Green Bay and Chicago lost in separate, yet equally embarrassing fashion, but did I get to see any of it? No, I did not. Why? Please refer to the ‘I’ve been married for 20 years’ comment. I have a great wife, and how she’s managed to put up with me for 20 years I’ll never know. I just gratefully accept that there’s someone on this earth who doesn’t think I’m a complete dick, and move on to ponder other things. Like where I left my damn car keys…getting old sucks.

Anyways, I play this cat and mouse game with my wife of ‘Hide the Bye Week’ every year since I got the Sunday Ticket, because it is the one weekend that my wife automatically assumes is hers from early September to early February. About Wednesday, she’ll ask who the Vikings are playing. And every year, I’m a dope, because for 16 weeks, I spit out the opponent, home or away, time the game comes on, and what station it is on. And when I say ‘spit out’ I mean it’s out within two seconds, like it’s something I’ve known since childhood. On the bye week, I say something lame, like ‘I’m not sure’, or ‘I haven’t looked it up yet’, and she has me. I’m gooned, and the plans she has been scheming for three to eleven weeks are hatched upon me, much like D-Day was launched on the continent of Europe. You know it’s coming, but you’re not sure where and with how much force.

This season? Pretty bad. I got carted off to antique shops (oooooh, what a nice armoire), the grocery store (baby, go over two aisles and get me some pomegranates), a local garden store (don’t these marigolds look pretty, honey?), and then I spent the rest of the day doing shit around the house. Shit I normally wouldn’t have to do, mind you, but for the damn bye week. The driveway has been weather sealed, the garage got cleaned, we finalized plans for finishing off the basement.

Oh, the Vikes are an all-time 16-4 coming out of the bye (there were two bye weeks in 1993, an especially painful year), and they should kick the hell out of Detroit. Sorry, I gotta go clean the gutters. See you Sunday.

Those who were against the Favre signing

MilCardFan — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:00:05 -0000

I was wondering if you've been able to reconcile yout anti-Favre feelings halfway through the season and are you on board with the move now, or are you still against the move? If so, why? I'm genuinely interested in hearing what your opposition is.

I still have friends that are trying to compartmentalize their anti-Favre feelings as they watch what is possibly the greatest Vikings team in over 10 years. For full disclosure, I was on board with signing Favre from the beginning and have been ecstatic to see what's transpired on the field to this point. And I'm on board right now for him coming back next year, if he wants to and if he's healthy. And if he does the drama of the retire/unretire I honestly won't give two hoots in hell.

And if he helps lead the Vikings to a Su--...a really big victory late, late in the year, I'm going to be leading the drive to retire his number as a Viking. Really, I think I might.

Stunning Revelation for Me Yesterday

MilCardFan — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 04:07:22 -0000

As I was watching the game yesterday, I started taking note of the construct of this team. I had looked it over and mulled it earlier this season, but yesterday it really hit me, especially after I had spent a good part of the early afternoon watching the Horror that was the Rams-Lions.

I am stunned, and excited, at how many draft picks are significant contributors on this football team, especially on offense. 80% of the offensive line are draft picks. Harvin, AP, and Rice--draft picks. Granted, this team isn't 7-1 without Favre and Jared Allen, but when you contrast the Vikings situation with the disaster that is the St Louis Rams, I am amazed at how many guys the Vikings drafted have been hits as opposed to misses. And we can't forget EJ Henderson, Chad Greenway, Cedric Griffin, and up and coming Ray Edwards over on defense.

I remember when Rick Spielman got hired, many Viking fans winced, and rightfully so, based on what he did, or didn't do, while he was in Miami. He gave up a second round draft pick for AJ Feely, and their drafts were pretty mediocre. Well, he's redeemed himself, and if the Vikings make it as far as we hope, I hope he gets his due credit.

Chilly, the KAO, and Two Minute Tommy Kramer

MilCardFan — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 01:36:38 -0000

A couple things here. First, I think I'm warming to Brad Childress, and it's from a commercial on NFL Network. He talks about doing things right all the time, even when no one is looking. On to my point...

I HATED...I mean HATED 2006-2008 when it came to the Vikings offense, with the exception of Adrian Peterson. I really thought that the offense Childress brought in was the most unimaginative, bland, lifeless offense I had ever watched in my lifetime. Fast forward to this year, and the Minnesota Vikings offense is...kick ass. Yeah, you heard me, it IS a kick ass offense. Well, why?

The obvious answers are Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre, but it goes deeper than that. Let's look at the skill players the Vikings had from 06-08 and what they have now. Well, screw that, let's start with Favre and look what the Vikings had prior to 2009. Brad Johnson, Tarvaris Jackson, Kelly Holcomb, Tarvaris Jackson, Gus Frerotte, and then...say it with me...Tarvaris Jackson again. Johnson, Holcomb, and Gus were smart veteran QB's that just couldn't execute all the throws in the offense. Brad had a weak arm but knew the offense inside and out, Holcomb matched his weak arm with an uncanny inability to hit an open receiver, TJ has a cannon for an arm but is wildly inconsistent, and Gus, God Bless Him, was the closest thing to Tommy Kramer the younger kids will ever see. How do I describe Two Minute Tommy for the little ones?

He was sit on the edge of your seat exciting to facepalm ugly to watch, and then back again several times a game. He'd make a great throw and then throw three picks; he'd win a game in the last minute and then stand in front of a TV camera with a dip the size of a bathroom vanity in his lower lip and then say "aw shucks, we just took what the defense gave us today." Gus didn't have a flair for the game ending dramatics like TK did, but his game resembled Kramer's in the maddening, lovable, kick-a-puppy-he-makes-you-so-mad in a lot of ways. Why, when you compare Kramer's career to similar players over at pro-football-reference.com, two names pop up--Brad Johnson and...wait for it...GUS FREROTTE!!!

And a guy that's so inconsistent like Gus and TJ have been makes Chilly conservative in a Jim 'it's okay to punt' Tressel kind of way. Why? He knew he didn't have a QB that could overcome mistakes and play from behind, and his WR's weren't game changers and guys that could swing momentum in one play. Travis Taylor, Bobby Wade, Marcus Robinson, and Robert Ferguson are nothing but a bunch of...meh when it came to making big plays.

Enter Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin. In 2008, Sidney Rice was really starting to emerge late in the year, and made some clutch, move the chain catches late in the years...and then hurt his knee, pretty much wasting his sophomore season. He is healthy, and is becoming a force. Percy Harvin is explosive, and TE Visanthe Shiancoe is a threat.

Chilly has opened up the playbook because he finally has the weapons to run all the plays in all the down and distance combinations, and the results are tangible.

And if Favre does finally retire at the end of this season, I'll start the Tommy Kramer Comeback Petition.

Feel Better After This Loss Than Most

MilCardFan — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 22:22:01 -0000

I wanted to wait about 24 hours to really reflect on this game, because what you say or write in the heat of the moment isn't necessarily what you want the world to see, or what you truly feel.

This was a winnable game, and when the Vikes answered the first Pittsburgh defensive TD with the Percy Harvin kick return, then a defensive stop, I thought they had a chance. When Adrian Peterson ran over William Gay and let out that Primeval scream, my Dad and I looked at each other and said 'we're going to win this game'. We NEVER feel that absolute and certain about the Vikings ability to win a game late. The Vikings have elevated their play to another level this year, and they are on par physically and mentally with any other team in the NFL.

Obviously, they didn't win, but neither of us were truly upset that they lost. Disappointed, most definitely, but the Vikings will win more of these games than they will lose, and if they meet Pittsburgh again on a neutral field, Minnesota will win.

This is the bottom line for me: If the Vikings have a healthy Brett Favre, the ball, time on the clock, and are within a score, they will win 9 times out of 10.

They beat Green Bay by two scores next week. Mark it down.