SB Nation User Blog: Milt on Tilt

Mauer's Impact Updated

Milt on Tilt — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 16:09:46 -0000

Because I love Joe Mauer. And I love to see the tangible difference he has had on this club in the 2009 season.

W% w/Joe: .519 (54-50)
Without: .448 (13-16)

R/G w/Joe: 5.07
R/G w/o: 4.76

RA/G w/Joe as C: 4.57
RA/G w/o as C: 5.36

Expected W%:

w/Joe @ C: .551

w/ Joe @DH: .472

w/o Joe: .441

With a reasonable breakdown of 140 games at catcher, 18 at DH, and 4 games of rest a team would be expected to win 87-88 games with Joe Mauer over the course of a full season. Without Joe Mauer, the team would be expected to win about 71 games.

Of course this is overstated since the biggest difference in RA/G with and without Joe has been the terrible start of Scott Baker. So unless you buy that Joe Mauer fixed Scott you can't buy into these numbers as is.

Personally, I was hoping for a more profound difference in R/G, but it's not insignificant.

Trade Nathan?

Milt on Tilt — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 14:24:32 -0000

I've been convinced that the Front Office is positioning themselves to be able to trade Joe Nathan during the offseason. He is owed $35 Million over the next three years and is a terrible allocation of resources. I was shocked when the Twins signed him to the extension to begin with, but I really do believe the may be thinking of trading him.

They acquired two arms in the last week, one of which is signed through next year. I do believe that they are going to work to bring back as many bullpen arms as they can, sign a big name free agent, get Mauer signed to his extension, and then trade Nathan. And more importantly I think this is the sound business decision. Closers are terribly overrated, and terribly overpaid.

Twins 2009-2010 Offseason

Milt on Tilt — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 21:23:20 -0000

I for one have given up all hope on the 2009 campaign. It was a waste of perhaps the greatest season by a catcher, ever (until Joe's 2010 season). What can, and should, be done to this team in the coming offseason?

I went through a list of upcoming Free Agents this offseason that I could potentially see moving teams to see just where the Twins could improve if the Pohlads pumped some money into the payroll. I'll put them into three groups, IF, SP, and RP.

IF:

Orlando Hudson (A), Felipe Lopez, Placido Polanco, Marco Scutaro(A), Miguel Tejada(A), Orlando Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Chone Figgins(A)

Some intriguing names for sure. I think the Twins are content at 3B thinking Valencia will be ready which I have no problems with. But what about upgrades at SS and 2B?

SP:

John Lackey(A), Rich Harden(A), Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, Randy Wolf, Joel Pineiro, Justin Duchscherer, Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn, Brett Myers, Jason Marquis

I think Lackey is out of the Twin's price range as he'll receive a Burnett type deal, probably even with the Angels. But what about the next three, Harden-Bedard-Sheets, all injury risk high reward pitchers. A fair base salary heavy on incentives would be very beneficial to both parties.

RP:

Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, Jose Valverde, many many others

Valverde will probably go to a team that he can close, but are there any relievers that you would like to see added to the squad for 2010?

What about aside from Free Agents? Do you trade Delmon or Cuddyer for a reliever or middle infielder? Do you try to trade for J.J. Hardy? Is it even possible to trade for Hardy knowing that the Twins farm system is incredibly weak?

Mauer's Impact

Milt on Tilt — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 20:23:46 -0000

Wins and Losses are obviously what matter. Twins without Joe Mauer=1 win above .500. Twins with Joe Mauer=.500

But I just glanced at the numbers.

Twins Run Differentials:
Without Joe=-21
With Joe=+50

Runs/Runs Allowed per game
Without Joe=4.08/4.92
With Joe=5.16/4.38

Plus of course there has been three games that Joe hasn't started but appeared late as a pinch hitter. The Twins lost all three of those games. Joe was 2/3 with 3 RBI in those at-bats.

I just found this interesting since the run differentials obviously don't line up to the win/losses. I thought it would be closer.

Rauch traded to Arizona

Milt on Tilt — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:43:05 -0000

Recently the Washington Nationals traded Jon Rauch to the Arizona Diamondbacks receiving mediocre prospect Emilio Bonifacio in exchange. Emilio was give a C+ rating heading into the season by John Sickles and has had a good year at the age of 23, but this being in the PCL. Meanwhile Jon Rauch over the last two seasons has been outstanding striking out 117 in 136 2/3 innings while only walking 28 posting WHIPs under 1.1.

My question to you is, did the Twins miss the Rauch-train? Do you think the Twins should have tried to acquire him if we would to have given up say Valencia, Hughes, or Plouffe?

I personally believe this was a great trade for Arizona giving up a future utility infielder for a very dependable arm in the bullpen.