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Missing Barry

  • joined Jul 31, 2008
  • last login May 22, 2014
  • posts 24
  • comments 40713
User Blog

New Research on "The Hot Hand"

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New research using better data on the hot hand theory. The research finds that the hot hand is real once you control for factors like difficulty of shot (location, nearest defender, etc.). The paper has not been released yet, this is pretty much exactly what I've believed for a long time, that the "hot hand" effect itself is fairly small and the bigger impact it has is on the quality of future shots.

No such thing as a "tweener" anymore

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Well, you can't always be right (unless you always agree with me!), but Beckley Mason hit this nail on the head by apparently reading my arguments and finding them convincing. 'Tweer 3/4's work best at PF in the current NBA. On a more serious note, I just think the discussion on the topic is interesting and relevant for us, especially thinking about Draymond.

FanPost
221

All-time Greats

So in another one of the threads, I called Lebron a truly special player even by HoF standards - a real inner pantheon guy with a very limited number of peers. There was some disagreement based on...

GSoM getting a mention in Bloomberg

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"After the Golden State Warriors signed Lin—and faced rumors that they were just pulling off a publicity stunt for the Bay Area’s large Asian-American population—a blogger at Golden State of Mind, writing in August 2010, took a look at something called the Position Adjusted Win Score per 40 minutes and found that Lin’s so-called PAWS40 predicted he’d be an above-average NBA player." Read more in the article.

On Jason Kidd, clutch performance, the Mavericks, the greatest clutch lineup ever?, the NBA Finals, Lebron James is clutch...

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Great article by The Painted Area. Extremely interesting, and read the addendum, too. The article has everything, what more could you want?!

FanPost
132

GSoM Draft Profile: Alec Burks!

With Alec Burks officially declaring for the draft, I thought I might take some time to write an official GSoM Draft Profile for him for the 2011 Community Draft Project!.  Especially since it's...

Forget Kobe Bryant, Isolations are the issue

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This is the conversation I've been waiting for. The focus on Kobe Bryant as the main character isn't the important point - the important point is general strategy, and where the NBA (and many other basketball minds) are currently failing. Just because it's an important time of the game doesn't change what constitutes good offense, yet you see players, coaches and teams change their strategy as if an isolation is suddenly a good play. It's not.

Must Read Article on Carmelo

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A good read. Summarizes another article that provides good evidence and a good explanation as to why Caremlo isn't an efficient scorer. Read both articles. Whether you think Carmelo is great or think he's overrated, and despite the subject already being beat to death, it is still worth your time to read.

Patience [with young players] Pays

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I don't think I have to explain why this is relevant on a Giants site. The potential reward for sticking with a young, cheap, cost controlled guy is huge - even if he only turns into an average player (~2 WAR) or a bit less, at $400K, that's a very nice surplus value you're getting. Why some people don't understand this is beyond me. But, this is the Giants, so we'd still rather give a veteran the chance to fail than a young guy, despite the young guy having a much higher potential reward if he works out....

Jeremy Affeldt - Best or Bestest?

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Little piece by Fangraphs on how awesome Affeldt's fastball is. Not mentioned, but something this evidence implies: Jeremey Affeldt might be underrated by FIP/fWAR.

LOLstros

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I seriously fear the joke will be on us soon enough when Sabean's extended. Honestly, what does a bad GM have to do to get fired?!

McC sucks

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D-Rays Bay did this, so...where's our Giants version of this? Just kidding....kind of. But seriously, really impressive effort on their part. Really cool that they put in all that work out of love of the game.

Verducci Effect, new study

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We recently discussed the Verducci effect a bit, and I mentioned I was surprised by the lack of actual research done into it. Here's a good first step into the kind of thing I've been hoping to see.

Aubrey Huff and Subtraction by Addition

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Fangraphs shares my sentiments on Aubrey Huff.

Giants player information system

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Just wanted to share this little nugget I found in an article about the Pirates. "There are other major-league teams with similar systems, including San Francisco and Cleveland, where Pirates general manager Neal Huntington migrated from in the fall of 2007." Now, I like Sabean-bashing as much as anyone, but I also do have a fair side to me. Maybe there is some progressive stuff going on in the Giants front office. In a vacuum, this sounds to me like a very good thing and positive step for the Giants. Of course, this isn't in a vacuum, it's still within the context of a Sabean run front office...so feel free to make your own interpretation...

Bengie Molina, 2nd best!

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Fangraphs article looking at players who are over and undervalued based on RBI's. This is what I thought particularly funny and interesting: "2007-2009 Leaders and Trailers (qualifed, 250 RBI minimum): 1. Jeff Francoeur, 1.30 RBI/24RC. .313 wOBA, 252 RBI, -17.62 Sitch 2. Bengie Molina, 1.28 RBI/24RC. .317 wOBA, 256 RBI, 23.29 Sitch 3. Robinson Cano, 1.28 RBI/24RC. .346 wOBA, 254 RBI, -53.47 Sitch 4. Garrett Atkins, 1.19 RBI/24RC. .339 wOBA, 258 RBI, -6.31 Sitch 5. Mike Lowell, 1.18 RBI/24RC. .359 wOBA, 268 RBI, -4.79 Sitch 6. Ryan Howard, 1.16 RBI/24RC. .385 wOBA, 423 RBI, 22.80 Sitch … 43. Lance Berkman, 0.80 RBI/24RC. .397 wOBA, 288 RBI, 25.32 Sitch 44. Albert Pujols, 0.80 RBI/24RC. .440 wOBA, 354 RBI, 15.22 Sitch 45. Hanley Ramirez, 0.72 RBI/24RC. .409 wOBA, 254 RBI, -27.34 Sitch Note how much the Sitch scores fluctuate on both ends of the rankings and draw your own conclusions. Any list with Frenchy and Bengie on one end and Pujols and Han-Ram on the other speaks for itself." Bengie was #1 on the context-neutral version of these rankings, found: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-2009-carter-batista-award

Discussion on Linear Weights

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Good discussion on the pros and cons of linear weights. First thing that came to my mind? BtB Power Rankings for the Giants. I theorized that being at the extremes may cause some problems for their model...and after reading this, I'm beginning to think that just might explain almost all the discrepency in their model compared to the actual results...

Rockets Take Ferry to Game

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Ha, funny. I don't live in the Bay, but it I imagine it's a mess back home because of the bridge right now...

New Uni's next year looking good

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"• The Warriors have a great uni history that presents all sorts of intriguing throwback possibilities, but here's one you probably didn't see coming. Simple but cool, and dig the little arrow on the shorts logo patch! On-court debut: Dec. 3. (Looking ahead, a small item buried within this interview with team president Robert Rowell and GM Larry Riley indicates that the team will get a design makeover next season. Uni Watch has seen the preliminary mock-ups and can say with a fair degree of certainty that you will not be disappointed.)" Little tidbit on throwbacks this year and our new uni's next year. (If you're not familiar with Lucas' Uni Watch, I suggest following the link. The actual article has links to pictures and such.)

FanPost
159

Examining the Garko trade

So we have posts everywhere about the Garko trade, and I posted this comment in the original fanpost, but I think it's worthwhile enough to give it's own fanpost to.  Here's an evaluation of the...

Curry A Star!

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Why bother with anything basketball related when you can tell someone will be great simply by their name?

FanPost
139

Fun with steroids, your list

Let's have a little fun with steroids, what do you think.  There are 103 players on the 2003 list we don't know about yet.  If you could choose any player to be on that list, who would you pick and...

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