SB Nation User Blog: Mister Naxal

The Onion on the Texas Rangers Being In Playoff Contention

Mister Naxal — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 18:45:08 -0000

The Onion on the Texas Rangers Being In Playoff Contention

First Thoughts On The "It's Too Hot To Win" Theory

Mister Naxal — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 17:07:04 -0000

As noted here and elsewhere this past week, Rangers pitcher Derek Holland drew some attention with a quote regarding the role of the August heat and humidity in his last outing at The Ballpark. While it's been rare for players to comment on the heat as a factor, I think this theory holds a spot in the top five of the Black Helicopter Theories Of Baseball Park Effects. Lately I've not been able to listen to Rangers Replay or visit the comments sections at the Dallas Morning News' Rangers blog without hearing or reading several comments about how the Rangers can't win as long as they don't have an air conditioned dome because it's too hot in Texas in the 2nd half of the season.

Like any good scientist (or in my case, recreational social scientist), I wanted to poke this theory with some evidence and see what it would do. The boiled-down gist of the "It's Too Hot To Win" Theory seems to be that the Rangers lose in the second half of the season (another popular phrase is "second half swoon") because the temperatures in Arlington are closer to the third ring of Hell than they are to most of the rest of North America for the majority of 2nd half home games.

If the theory is correct in the grand scheme of things, the Rangers ought to consistently have losing records in the second half of any given season at home. I did a quick count of the Rangers' second half home record from 2002-2009 (my numbers may be off a couple games here and there...it put the "quick" in quick count) from ESPN's team summary page.

In three out of the last seven seasons the Rangers have a losing record at home after the All Star Break. While that isn't great, it's also clearly not a consistent record of losing in the second half. For the two extreme seasons of second half home wins, I also looked at the first half home record to see if there was some kind of significant boost or drop off from the 1st half home record to the 2nd half home record. The anecdotal answer is mixed. The 2004 Rangers were a pretty consistent team at home across both halves of the season, indicating that they were a pretty solid squad. The 2008 Rangers did experience a 12 games drop off from their first half to their second half. They were treading water at home in the 1st half and were simply awful at home in the second half. Strength of schedule? Injuries? Heat? The won-loss record doesn't tell us those things.

Since this is just a descriptive look, we can't convincingly give a thumbs up or thumbs down to the "It's Too Hot To Win" Theory based on these results. I think, though, we can get an idea that no, it's not simply a matter of it being too hot to win in Arlington in the second half of the season. I doubt that this is really news to most folks here at LSB.

This first look is purely descriptive and that to properly address this is going to take some serious time and effort to collect data on pitchers, game time temperature and opposing offenses and to specify, test, run and interpret a multilevel model with random effects. As with most social science, the modeling is the easiest part; the data collection is by far the most difficult (panel data on every home starter in the time period). In the case of this question, the data is there, but I don't have the time to grab it in short order. I am working on collecting this data and modeling it and when I can finish this project, I'll share it with y'all. If anyone knows where I could get most of this data already in some kind of spreadsheet or spreadsheet-portable format (like CSV), I'd be most appreciative.

I'm going to keep chipping away at this because I think it's an annoying but interesting question and a question where there's the appropriate data to analyze it with an appropriate method.

Poll

Do you think that this is interesting enough to examine with more data and more sophisticated methods?

Yes

30 votes

No

3 votes

Yawn

12 votes

45 votes | Poll has closed

Arangure: Guillermo Pimentel Signs With Mariners

Mister Naxal — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:22:57 -0000

Arangure: Guillermo Pimentel Signs With Mariners

"Trainer confirms OF Guillermo Pimentel signed with #Mariners for $2m. Contract was signed as the clock struck midnight on July 2"

Padilla Through Pitch f/x

Mister Naxal — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 00:05:37 -0000

No one is happier than I am that it's getting easier than ever to grab Pitch f/x data; when we see the result of pitching performances visualized it can at least let us know what it looks like when a pitcher is going strong versus what it looks like when a pitcher is in trouble.

The pitcher I'm looking at today is Vicente Padilla. Through three starts, Padilla has been meh once, bad once and awful once. In his bad and awful starts, he has looked like he is one mistake pitch away from being in Josh Rupe territory.

On May 7, 2008, Padilla had one of this best starts of the season against the Mariners with a 7 inning, 2 hit effort with no earned runs and 8 strikeouts. Padilla threw 91 pitches, 57 of them for strikes. Fast forward to yesterday against the Royals where Padilla scattered 8 hits over 5 innings giving up 5 earned runs while striking out 5 batters. Padilla threw 94 pitches, 58 of them for strikes.

I accept that it is somewhat unfair to take an exemplar from last season and compare it to one of three starts this season, but I think when you see the graphs, you'll see what the big difference between Padilla in May 2008 and Padilla in April 2009: Velocity.

Padilla release point chart, May 7, 2008 vs. Seattle:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Padilla release point chart, April 19, 2009 vs. Kansas City:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Not only do Padilla's pitch-strike numbers match one another almost perfectly, but his release point for his pitches is also a very close match between yesterday's shelling and last May's gem, although there's more horizontal deviation in yesterday's release points than in the tight cluster from last May's game. This next series of graphs shows the bad news for Padilla and for those of us in the seats and watching at home:

Padilla velocity all game pitch graph, May 7, 2008 vs. Seattle:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Padilla velocity all game pitch graph, April 19, 2009 vs.Kansas City:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

It's not a technical or medical term, but those velocity charts show an arm that's gassed. To be more exact, I expect that they show a shoulder problem for Padilla. Control issues are usually correlated with elbow issues and velocity issues are usually correlated with shoulder issues.

We all know Vicente Padilla lives and dies by the fastball. When a guy like that moves from a low- to mid-90s fastball that he can dial into the upper 90s when necessary to an across-the-board decrease to a low-90s to upper 80s fastball that he can't even dial into the mid-90s, he's probably in trouble on the mound and, I'd guess, is not fessing up to some shoulder stiffness or shoulder soreness.

I hope my hunch is wrong, but I expect to hear about Padilla skipping a start or going on the DL before May rolls around.

(A big Texas thank you to www.brooksbaseball.net for his great Pitch f/x web tool.)

Pictures From Game 3 Versus The Indians

Mister Naxal — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 00:31:42 -0000

Pictures From Game 3 Versus The Indians

Here's a link to a Flickr photo set of pictures I took at the Indians game yesterday afternoon.

OT: The One True Ho Signs With The Phillies

Mister Naxal — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 17:31:18 -0000

ESPN.Com, aka TMZ Sports, has taken time out from playing he-said-she-said over the Dallas Cowboys to report that Chan Ho Park has signed a one year $2.5 million dollar deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. From the article:

Park, a native of South Korea, pitched 95 1/3 innings with a 3.40 ERA for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2008 -- his 11th full major league season -- making five starts in 54 appearances.

He said the Phillies expected him to start, despite reports that have said the team sought Park to help boost their bullpen.

"I was a little worried about the Citizens Bank Park, the home of the Phillies, which is hitter-friendly, but as they considered me as a starter, I signed with Philadelphia," he said.

Citizens Bank Park is a completely different beast than Chavez Ravine, one that can only be unfavorable to The Ho. I think that someone in the Phillies front office, probably the same person who thought Adam Eaton was a catch, is still hung over from celebrating their World Series win.

OT: Former Ranger Hideki Irabu Arrested

Mister Naxal — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:46:34 -0000

Our bullpen is gassed. We need some disposable arms for the stretch. I've peered into the crystal ball that is the New York Post and found the answer:

Hideki Irabu.

Seems as though he could use the cash to get caught up on his credit card bills:

Ex-Yankee pitcher Hideki Irabu - once ridiculed by George Steinbrenner as a "fat, pus-y toad" - was arrested in Osaka, Japan, today for allegedly assaulting a bartender after drinking 20 mugs of beer, a police official said.

Irabu, 39, became angered after his credit card was rejected. He allegedly pushed the bartender against the wall, pulled his hair and smashed at least nine liquor bottles. The bartender sustained no injuries.

Hair pulling? Smashing liquor bottles? Sounds like this guy still has the fire. 20 mugs of beer? He still has the stamina, too.

Joba & His MRI On Their Way To Birmingham

Mister Naxal — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 23:13:44 -0000

For those non-medheads out there in the audience, when a pitcher takes his MRI results to Birmingham, Alabama, it's to go see Dr. James Andrews. Per ESPN:

ARLINGTON, Texas -- New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain will be examined by noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews on Wednesday after undergoing an MRI on his ailing right shoulder.

Chamberlain returned to New York for tests on his shoulder Tuesday. The team said before its game against the Texas Rangers that it would not reveal the results of the MRI exam until Chamberlain is seen by Andrews in Birmingham, Ala.

While I hate the Yankees, I hope Joba's shoulder isn't cooked. He's a fun guy to watch pitch...and to watch duck decapitation throws from Pudge.

A Tale Of Three Joshes?

Mister Naxal — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 22:18:55 -0000

G/F Josh Childress signed a 3 year $20 million dollar deal with Greek team Olympiakos today, bolting the Atlanta Hawks for the Euroleague. Childress' deal sounds sweet...3 years, $20 million after taxes and an opt-out clause at the end of each year.

More to the point, however, I think opens up an interesting opportunity for the Mavs. The Hawks have not resigned restricted free agent Josh Smith. Word on the street is that part of Childress' reason for leaving the Hawks was his opinion of the team's management. I don't think any of us need to look too long nor too hard at the recent history of the Hawks to see that

If Josh Smith (and/or his agent(s)) have these same concerns about team management, would you offer a package headlined by Josh Howard to Atlanta for a sign and trade for Smith? I don't know if the Hawks would even think about trading Smith and I don't know if he's really interested in leaving Atlanta (or if he's waiting for the Hawks to pay him big time...my guess is he probably doesn't want to leave The ATL since he's from the area), but if there's even a slight chance, I'd want the Mavs to be in on it. Josh Smith is a phenomenal talent.

If such a possibility exists, it seems like one of those situations where both teams can get what they want: Josh Smith gets money and a spot on a team with more of an upside than the Hawks (albeit in a much tougher conference). Josh Howard gets a change of scenery. The Hawks get a couple of our bench players to beef up the eight players they currently have under contract.

I wouldn't do a Howard-Bass-Stack deal for Artest. I would do that same deal for Smith. Thoughts?

Neftali Feliz...Andrus and Borbon, Too

Mister Naxal — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 12:30:24 -0000

Last night my friend Rich and I ventured across to Dr. Pepper Ballpark to see Neftali Feliz pitch against the Arkansas Travelers. Coincidence that the Angels' Texas League affiliate is in town at the same time as the big club? Probably.

We had a great view of Feliz from two rows behind the Travelers' dugout. My Clif's Notes version of his outing: Impressive for most of his 5 IP. The things that immediately jumped out at me about him are that the smooth delivery and seeming effortlessness of his pitching are true. He throws gas the way I throw crumpled up balls of paper in the trashcan. For most of the first three innings he consistently worked his fastball from 96-98 mph according to the stadium gun. He easily dialed it up to 99 on several occasions for out pitches. From our angle I didn't get a good feel for his offspeed stuff...my impression is that he has a pretty good change but that his breaking stuff is there but either needs more development or that he's not used it that much up to this point.

The only possible flaw I saw about Feliz from my vantage point was that I think he tipped a few of his pitches to runners on 1B. 4 of the 5 Travelers' SB were on Feliz. On the last two, I noticed he was bringing the ball down behind his right leg and I could easily see him changing his grip on it from my seat, which means that it must have looked like it was up on the jumbotron for the runner on first. I think the Travelers picked up on that early on and ran on him when he gave them the chance by throwing breaking stuff. I didn't notice any SB on him when he was more circumspect with the ball.

The game beyond Feliz was pretty disappointing. The Travelers had a horrible record coming into this game, but the Riders played like the April edition of the Rangers after Feliz left...Garr and Diaz pitched batting practice and combined with committing 3 errors and giving up a 3 run shot to a guy hitting .107 coming into this game, the Travelers blew a close game wide open.

This was also my first time to see Borbon and Andrus. Borbon's got serious wheels. I didn't get a very good feel for his outfield defense, but he's a demon on the basepaths and looks pretty adept at getting on. Andrus was a little harder to get a read on...he missed several balls at short, but I think that most of those were balls that his athleticism got him close to, not balls that he should have had. I did see one bobble on a routine play, but it was a minor thing that was still an out at first. We were treated to one of the funnier moments of the evening when Andrus was caught in a rundown and the Travelers' 1B dropped the ball when he went to tag Elvis.

And if there were 6,139 people at that game then I'm Governor of Texas. There must have been a whole lot of no shows.