One of the guys I have always enjoyed following is Will Carroll, formerly of Baseball Prospectus, and now at SI.  His "Under The Knife" column is one of my first reads every day.  Today he included some updates on our banged up Redlegs rotation.

The Reds have some real issues with their rotation heading into the season. While they do have some depth, losing two starters is tough on any team. Three is nearly impossible to overcome -- and is a good rule of thumb. Check any team's SP8 and you'll see why. Bailey has been shut down with another instance of shoulder impingement. Basically, the muscles and tendons inside Bailey's shoulder don't have enough room to move, either because of structure or inflammation. It can be as simple as clearing up the inflammation or as technical as changing his mechanics to open things up. It's the recurrence that's the real worry. Bailey's had this before and been able to come back, but the fact that it wasn't corrected tells us that it could come back again unless something changes. Recurrences tend to be cumulative as well, since there's likely some fraying or scarring going on. In the extreme, there could be a surgery, likely a Mumford procedure where the collarbone is shaved down to create space. Several pitchers, such as Trevor Hoffman, have had that kind of procedure and come back. I'm not suggesting that Bailey will need surgery yet, but just to illustrate the "worst case."

Bailey's likely to miss a month as the Reds rest the shoulder, get him some treatment and then dial him back up to a starter's load. I think it will take closer to six weeks to get him back.

The news on Arroyo wasn't good, but it could have been worse. Arroyo has been sick for a couple weeks, though he was pitching through it. The diagnosis of mononucleosis isn't going to change that, surprisingly. Arroyo's stamina will be affected, and it wouldn't surprise me if they have to shadow him, likely with Sam LeCure. LeCure is in the five slot for now, but the schedule means he won't get many starts and will likely be used as a reliever during the first week of the season. Since mono can linger for weeks, or even months, the Reds will have to watch him closely. Arroyo can breathe a sigh of relief that he doesn't have Valley Fever, a fungal infection native to the Phoenix area. It cost Conor Jackson a year of rest and recovery.

 

Finally, the Reds are getting toward the end of the time Cueto was scheduled to be shut down. His forearm has made progress, per sources, but it's impossible to tell whether he'll have any sort of recurrence once he resumes throwing. In the best case, Cueto will need a couple weeks to dial it back up, perhaps needing a minor league start or two before returning to the Reds rotation. That will cost Cueto at least two, maybe three starts and that's only if he comes back on a relatively aggressive schedule. I'll have a lot more on these Friday, since I'll be in Cincinnati for Opening Day. I'm sure Dusty Baker is looking forward to a lot of questions about his pitching staff!

Looks like we better hope Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood, and Mike Leake are lights out to begin the year.  Otherwise, the bullpen might be toast by the end of April.

It's becoming more obvious that the Reds need an upgrade or two before the trade deadline.  I think June 1st, most fans thought we needed more pitching, especially in the bullpen.  However, Massett, Cordero, and Ondrusek all have been much better in July, and surprise call up Jordan Smith has proven he can get the job done as well. 

However, since June 1st the red-hot bats have cooled off quite a bit.  In fact, since June 15th, the Reds have played 36 games, and have scored 3 or less runs 18 times.  Amazingly, due to some terrific starting pitching, the Reds managed to go 19-17 in that stretch, and 11 of those losses the Reds manage to score 1 run or less.

So if Walt has been paying attention, (I think he has) he is probably on the hunt for a bat this week.  I found 3 guys I like.

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I think a lot of us can agree one of the more disappointing area of our beloved Reds this year has been a bullpen.  Last year, the group of Cordero, Massett, Herrera, Rhodes, and <sigh> Weathers performed very well, and if the Reds had the lead in the 6th, you felt fairly confident the bullpen could close it out.

However, this year outside of Arthur Rhodes, the same group has been wildly inconsistent, and more times than not just flat out bad.  With Burton and Bray not looking like they will be able to help anytime soon, and the best relief arms in Louisville all ready up in Del Rosario and Ondrusek, you are left with converting starters (i.e. Bailey, Chapman, Wood, Harang) or the trade route.  It's somewhat baffling how the same core of guys last year have all performed badly this year.  They were pretty over worked in April, and that may have a little to do with what we've seen the last few weeks.  You know things are bad when the team's beat writers are calling former players who are home pitching batting practice to their 10-year old to see if they would come back.

The Reds chose the trade route in 2006, and it was disastrous.   Mainly because the relievers they brought in (Majewski and Bray) were not clear upgrades over what they had (One was injured), and in getting them they gave up their starting shortstop and right fielder, hurting their lineup.  The Reds offense has over performed most of the year, and being thin on position players at AAA, they can't really afford to give up much of their 25-Man roster. 

What also complicates things for the Reds are the payroll constraints.  Walt has done a fabulous job being creative and finding ways to make everything work in a tight budget.  In my opinion, he played the market perfectly in the off season on guys like Gomes and Cabrera.  His patience there might have left enough to add an arm towards the end of June.  Here are 3 guys that could be upgrades, don't make much money, and can likely be had on the cheap:

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Hard to believe that just two weeks from this coming Monday is Opening Day against the Cardinals at Great American Ball Park.  I sure hope the nice, warm weather we have enjoyed in Reds land this week is here for Opening Day as well.  While many of the positions on the team are set, there are a few battles for roster spots before the team breaks camp and head northeast to start the year.

Will the Reds decide to keep Aaron Miles because the money he is owed?  Or will they go younger with more speed, offense, and versatility and keep a guy like Paul Janish or Drew Sutton?  Who wins the 5th starter job?  Will there be a need for cuban food in the Reds clubhouse?  Is it possible Drew Stubbs starts the year in AAA?  My predictions are below.

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Let's say for one day only you get to be in charge of MLB, and are charged with the task of re-aligning the divisions. across MLB.

Rules:

1. You could switch any team to any league, but cities with 2 teams can't have both teams in the same league.

2.  There are 30 MLB Teams, so one league has to have 16 teams, and one has to have 14.  The leage with 16 teams goes 5-5-6, and the 14 team league goes 4-5-5.

3.  If you want, put your feelings about the DH in your response.

4.  Have fun with it.  If you want to put all the small market teams in a division, do it.  If you want to see if the Cubs, Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox can have a pissing match over who can spend the most, put them all in the same division.

Enjoy!

With another disappointing game last night, our beloved Redlegs fall to 1-4 on this roadtrip.  Had you asked Jay Bruce, myself or any other Reds fan last Wednesday night after the Reds swept the Astros,  we would have told you no way we drop 4 out of 5 to begin this trip.  Of course since last Sunday, we have lost our best hitter Joey Votto and our 2008 All Star Starting Pitcher,  Edinson Volquez (again) to the 15-Day DL.   Edwin Encarnacion remains atleast a couple weeks away.  Willy Taveras hasn't played with a leg injury, and when he was put in the lineup last night, he wasn't healthy enough to run down a flyball, and will not start again tonight.  One of the Reds' better hitters in May, Jerry Hairston Jr. has been out sick the first two games of the St. Louis Series.  Our available bench has consisted of light hitting  utility guys like Paul Janish and Wilkin Castillo, with the only viable threats being Jonny Gomes and Micah Owings.  Dusty is absolutely trying to do the best with what he has to work with, but let's face it....right now, it isn't a whole lot.  If the Reds are serious about winning in 2009, it's time to start looking to make a move.  We have heard it time and time again from Walt , "We are always looking for ways to improve our ball club".  As Slyde pointed out in this great post yesterday, we are getting terrible production from LF and 3B, and with Joey Votto out, you can expect a slide at 1B as well.

Need some trade options?  Here are my top 5:

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From the Excellent Reds Internal Affairs Blog by Reds Intern Jim Misudek:

LHP Bill Bray was examined today by Reds medical director Timothy Kremchek, who tomorrow will perform surgery on Bray's left elbow. Bray has been on Louisville's disabled list since April 16 with a strained left elbow.

Reds 1B Joey Votto became light-headed following yesterday's game at San Diego. Instead of flying home with the team, as a precautionary measure he was admitted for tests at Scripps Clinic at San Diego. He will be examined again in Cincinnati tomorrow. Votto missed 5 games last week with the flu and twice more left games with dizziness.

RHP Edinson Volquez today received treatment on his back without complaint. Volquez left Saturday's start with mild spasms in his mid-back. He is not expected to miss a start.

We knew about Bray, and it is encouraging Volquez won't miss a start.  The Joey Votto news is scaring the crap outta me.  Lets hope for some better news this time tomorrow.  Sounds like he must be a little bit better if they allowed him to fly back to Cincinnati today.  This team isn't the same wihout  #19 on the field. 

Anyone with any medical knowledge of the flu followed by dizzyness?  Is it a common thing, or is this something different?  I hope it was the heat in AZ that got to him after the flu, and it's taking him longer to get over it.  Maybe some type of inner-ear infection?

As I suspected  in the game wrap-up thread yesterday, Edwin Encarnacion has been diagnosed with a Bone Chip in his left wrist, and has been placed on the 15-Day DL.  He also is battling a right shoulder issue, that bothers him when throwing.  Adam Rosales has been called up, and should be available by game time tonight.

Let's hope EdE can get healthy , get some rest, and have a good rehab, and while he is away Rosales rakes in his absence. EdE battled a wrist problem in Spring Training, and you have to wonder and assume that's why he hasn't been all that good so far this year.  Other than his Grand Salami in Milwaukee, can anyone remember a hard hit ball of his bat?

Funny, John Fay had a quote from Dusty this afternoon that said Edwin "wasn't ban enough for DL".  Looks like it's a good thing the Reds poked him with Doc Kremchek's stick.

According to MLBTraderumors.com the Dodgers have Designated OF Delwyn Young for assignment.  They now have 10 days to trade or release him.  Delwyn had great Minor League numbers, but the Dodgers never have been able to fit him in their outfield at the MLB level with similar young talented guys like Matt Kemp and  Andre Either, and overpaid vets (Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones) blocking him.   He's played mostly LF in the minors, but also has played Right, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st. He was out of options, and with Manny, Pierre, Either, Kemp on the team they decided to release him.

Career Minors Line: (2,755 AB's)  .303/.362/.515

Career MLB Line:  (165 AB's)  .267/.331/.394

I would think his switch-hitting stick, would be a lot more valuable over the course of the full season than Laynce Nix or Darnell McDonald.   Get it done Walt.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Marlins have released 1B/3B Dallas McPherson.  He bats lefty, and according to his numbers has always had enormous power.  Looks like he has never had a real shot in the majors, so he could be the prototypical AAAA player.  He had a monster year for the Marlins AAA team last year... .275/.379/.618 with 42 bombs (I know the PCL inflates those numbers some).  He did make 17 errors at 3B last year, so he is somewhat like Encarnacion in the field, but he would be a good lefty bench bat that could play both corners.He has had injury trouble in the past, but played a full season last year.

Career Minor League batting line in 2,273 At bats:

AVG     OBP   SLG    OPS
.296/  .380 / .586/  .966 
 

2B- 138
3b-  35
HR- 150



Thoughts anyone?

From MLB Trade RUMORS:

2:26pm: Buster Olney says they've reached an agreement on an eight-year deal worth more than $170MM.

Aside from the Red Sox, the Brewers and Blue Jays also lose here.  Their draft picks from the Yanks for C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett are bumped to the second and third rounds, respectively.

2:17pm: According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are on the verge of signing Mark Teixeira to an eight-year, $180MM deal with a full no-trade clause.

So lets say Tex gets  175 Million/8 years

CC got  161/ 7 years

Burnett Got   82.5/5 years

Thats 418,500,000  on 3 damn players.

Are we ready for a salary cap yet...Anyone?  I'm sure glad we are not in AL East.  Must suck for Baltimore and Toronto fans knowing you never are going to have a shot the next 5 years.   If no cap, just put  the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Cubs all in the same division and let them just bid the crap out of each other.

In a unrelated note, Leatherpants just got sticky because he now gets to move on to Adam Dunn.

On the bright side, maybe we can get ourselves a deal on Nick Swisher.  Surely the Yanks will look to move him now.  I say a bullpen arm and a mid-level prospect will be enough to pry him away.  He would fit in our outfield.

Multiple outlets are reporting that the Braves have reached an agreement with free agent SS Rafael Furcal.  Several reports also mention that this signing means Yunel Escobar will be made available.  Escobar was mentioned early on in Peavy trade talks, I guess those could fire up, and I am sure the Dodgers, A's, and Blue Jays would be interested as well.   Should this be a guy the Reds are interested in as well?

Escobar has been pretty good at the MLB level at a position that isn't exactly easy. in 833 MLB at bats, he has posted a respectable  .303/.373/.420 batting line. As the solid OBP shows, he isn't afraid to walk, with 86 in the 833 AB's.  He has K'd 106 times.

Beyond the Box Score recently ranked him as the Number 8 most valuable shortstop in 2008.  He seems to have plus range and be above postion average offensively.   Would he be worth giving up an arm or two for?  We know the Braves have been interested in Bronson Arroyo at the deadline each of the last two seasons. Obviously with so many teams hunting for help at short, the price will be a bit high.  The Braves may even opt to kept Escobar, and move him to second base and opt to trade Kelly Johnson instead.  Why not package Arroyo and a youn bullpen arm and take a shot?

Maybe an Arroyo and Roenicke package could get us a young, affordable shortstop for the next 2 or 3 years? If the Braves don't want Bronson's salary, maybe they would like Homer.  Either way, If I was Walt, I would be on the phone.

The Rule V Draft kicks off at 12 Noon EST live from Las Vegas Today.  Of course it was two years ago, the Reds scored Josh Hamilton and Jared Burton for 50,000 each.  Not a bad day that was, huh?  Anyway the Nats get the first pick, and according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo:

MLB.com has learned that the Washington Nationals will take RHP Terrell Young from the Reds organization with the first pick of the Rule 5 Draft today. Young was a 10th round pick in the 2004 draft. He's got a big arm who had a very good second half in 2008. He's very athletic and competitive on the mound and has three above-average pitches.

-- Jonathan Mayo

I had never even heard of Young before, He was a relief guy for Dayton and Sarasota Number, and had a good ERA, but I doubt he is ready to spend a whole year at MLB level.

From WCKY-AM 1530 Homer The Sports Animal's Lance McAlister:

Things I'm told
MLB sources tell me the White Sox and Reds are involved in trade talks. I'm told the White Sox initiated the talks. The potential deal involves the Sox sending RF Jermaine Dye to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey and another player.
What do you think?
Dye is a right handed run producer that plays RF. He will be 35 in January.
He leads all AL OF in HR's since 2005 with 137.
He has a gun for an arm, but does not move well in the OF.
Money wise: Here is his contract situation.
20009:$11.5M
2010:$12M mutual option ($1M buyout)
He has a limited no trade clause
Homer is 22-years old and has thrown just 81.2 major league innings.

McAlister didn't name his source, but I thought some Chicago papers linked the Reds interest in him back in October.  He is an option, but I would assume he would have to be moved to Left Field.  He has a nice arm, but like Lance mentioned range is not there.  Is it me or does he seem like an older right-handed version of Adam Dunn? 

I don't mind trading Homer if we can fill a legitimate hole.  Is this the right guy for our hole?  Is there another player better Homer could bring us?  I figured Homer could land us one of the good 4 young catchers from Texas.

There is no doubt trading Homer now, would be selling low.  He could be a great safety net if the injury bug would bite Cueto, Volguez, Harang, or Arroyo.  Maybe we should hang on to him.

Thoughts anyone?

I was checkin out John Fay's Blog this morning and caught an interesting tidbit from the Reds Farm Director, Terry Reynolds:

The Hawaii Winter League wrapped up Sunday. The Waikiki BeachBoys, featuring Reds' prospects Yonder Alonso and Todd Frazier, won the title.

Both put up excellent numbers: Alonso hit .308/.419/.510, Frazier .295/.375/.547. Frazier led the league in slugging.

"They both swung the bat really well," farm director Terry Reynolds. "Frazier came back OK from the concussion. It was good to see both of them play well."

The plan for Alonso?

"He'll compete for a job with Carolina," Reynolds said. "If that doesn't work out, he'll be the first baseman with Sarasota."

Apparently, the talk of playing Alonso at third base as well as first is over.

"I would doubt that he'll play any third," Reynolds said. "If he does, it would be out of necessity. He's a first baseman." 

So if we take what we know about how good Alonso is, how well he performed in Hawaii, and how the Reds currently do have any other true 1B prospects, you can bet Alonso starts at AA.  If he performs well there, he might be able to end the year in AAA, which would make an arrivial sometime in 2010 a big time possibility.  If the Reds don't think that Alonso could handle any other position, would 2009 be a wise time to go ahead and move Joey Votto to LF?

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Andrew Baggerly is reporting the LHP Jeremy Affeldt has signed a 2-Year contract with the San Francisco Giants.  Terms have not been announced, but I would bet since he signed so quick its probably a deal worth 6-8 Million over the two years.  Maybe they gave him a shot at the rotation similiar to the Reds last year, or a shot at being the closer. Affeldt was a type-B free agent so the Reds will recieve a sandwich-round pick.

He has some nasty stuff, and should be even better in the NL West.  I was hoping the Reds could have retained him, but obviously they already had Bray and have a lot of money in Cordero, so spending 3 or 4 million a year on another lefty isn't the best use of funds.   Good luck to him in SF.

Here is another story on the signing from the SF Chronicle.

From MLB.com Press Pass:

Last night Louisville was eliminated from the International League playoffs with a 9-1 loss at Durham...tomorrow the Reds are expected to promote IF Paul Janish (#7), IF Danny Richar (#62), IF Adam Rosales (#60), RHP Jon Adkins (#64), LHP Daniel Herrera (#52), LHP Adam Pettyjohn (#63) and RHP Josh Roenicke (#65)...corresponding roster moves will be announced tomorrow to make room for Adkins, Pettyjohn, and Roenicke .

No Homer Bailey or Daryl Thompson?  I thought Homer did very well his last start.  Maybe he and Daryl are still a bit banged up.  These guys on the 40-Man did not get called up:

Pitchers:  Homer Bailey, Matt Belisle, Todd Coffey, Bobby Livingston, Tyler Pelland, Daryl Thompson

Catchers: Craig Tatum

INF: Yonder Alonso

Our 40 Man Roster is Full.  So Three from the above list or those on the ML Club right now (Patterson, Fogg, Bako, A. Phillips) will get the D-F-A or outrighted  to the minors tomorrow.

I bet we see a farewell to Coffey, Belisle, and Josh Fogg tomorrow.  Thoughts anyone on why Bailey and Thompson didn't get the call?  Why not throw Homer into the rotation and use a six-man rotation and save innings for Volquez, Cueto, and Harang?

I know a lot of people want to see Stubbs, and why I'd love to have him here the rest of the year, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to start his clock.  Plus he is signed up for the AFL.

Tuesday 9-9-08 Update:

To make room, the Reds placed Josh Fogg on the 60-Day DL, ending his season, recalled Matt Belisle, and placed him on the 60-Day DL, and designated for assignment RHP Todd Coffey.

Remember that fat contract extension Coffey pitched under this year?   I hope he saved some of that back.

From 620 KTAR

Sports 620 KTAR's John Gambadoro reports the Arizona Diamondbacks have acquired outfielder Adam Dunn from the Cincinnati Reds.

The Diamondbacks have Monday off, but start a NL West series in Colorado on Tuesday night.

Dunn is expected to start in right field.

The Diamondbacks are giving up three prospects in the deal, minor league pitcher Dallas Buck and two other players to be named later.

Dunn has 32 home runs in 2008 with 74 RBI. His average this season is .233. He has 270 home runs in his career, currently in his eighth Major League season, spending his entire career in Cincinnati.

Dunn has hit 40 or more home runs the past four seasons and is on pace to eclipse that mark again this season. He has also struck out 165 times or more in those seasons, currently with 120 this season.

The Diamondbacks will now have three of the top five strikeout leaders in the National League. Mark Reynolds is second with 147 and Chris Young is third with 122.

Throughout his career in the big leagues Dunn has played either corner outfield position while also getting some time in at first base. He has not played first base since the 2006 season and that was only in two games.

Wow. I'm stunned.  I know I shouldn't be, but for me Adam Dunn was the only reason left why I wanted to watch when I made the 3 hour drive over.  Looks like the one player we know we got hasn't played much this year.

Let's hope we got 3 good prospects.

From Reds.com transactions:

8-10-08  Returned RHP Aaron Harang from a rehabilitation assignment and reinstated him from the 15-day disabled list. Optioned RHP Homer Bailey to Triple-A Louisville. Designated C David Ross for assignment. Recalled C Ryan Hanigan from Louisville.

Ryan Hanigan will wear Mike Stanton's old #29.

I am really suprised they sent Bailey down.  Let's get him right up here and work toward to 2009.  He shows at times he is beginning to get it, and  has not been any worse than Josh Fogg.  If we are gonna eat Dave Ross Money, we might as well eat Josh Fogg, Paul Bako, AND Corey Patterson money.

Congrats to Ryan Hannigan, he deserved his promotion.  Too bad Chris Dickerson didn't come with him, but I am still not all sold on him being a MLB Ready player.

Good luck to Dave Ross, he was a good guy with fans and had a great 2005.   Injuries slowed him down the last 2 years, lets hope somewhere he can regain his '05 form.

Josh Bard, Anyone?

From MLBTRADERUMORS.COM:

San Diego is expected to activate Josh Bard from the DL this week, and will immediately place him on the trading block.

Bard struggled this year, but was pretty good the last couple of years (atleast with the bat).  He is a switch hitter, but his splits this year indicate he is better from the left side. 

Negatives are he is not that great throwing out base stealers, as he has only thrown out 19% runners on his career, but that is a bit skewed by a terrible 2007 number of only 8 %.  He is also 30, maybe older than the Reds would want to go if they are going to trade for a catcher.

All 3 of our catchers are Free Agents after this year, and I don't really expect the Reds to resign any one of them to be a starter, maybe one to serve as a back up.  (Most likely Bako).

 Of course, Texas has 3 really good young catchers on their MLB roster right now.  Taylor Teagarden, Max Ramirez, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.   It would take atleast Homer Bailey and maybe another piece like a Chris Dickerson to make that happen.

I fear if we don't trade for one, we will be stuck with Michael Barrett next year.

From C. Trent Rosecrans at thelotd.com:

Aaron Harang will fly back to Cincinnati from Chicago to undergo an MRI following his career-high seven-walk performance on Tuesday night, the team announced on Wednesday.

Harang has struggled since throwing four innings in an extra-inning game in San Diego on May 25, going 1-5 with a 7.31 ERA since that outting.

Harang missed his scheduled start on Saturday and was pushed back to Tuesday with forearm stiffness. The team said he's still bothered by the injury.

If Harang is put on the disabled list, Daryl Thompson could step right in for him. Thompson allowed one run on six hits in six innings in Louisville on Tuesday, picking up the win for the Bats. Thompson, optioned to Louisville last week could be recalled if the Reds placed a player on the disabled list. Otherwise, Homer Bailey, who pitched well on Monday, could be recalled to start on Sunday.

I hope the injury is minor, and a couple weeks of DL time is all he needs.  Obviously the 5-inning relief appearance could be a reason, or it could be something that has nagged him most of the year.  He experienced a similar pain in 2006, and skipping a full turn remedied the problem.

I say no matter what, Harang should not make the start Sunday.   Give him the rest and hope it heals up for post all star break.

As Trent Mentioned, the Reds have several options.  If they choose not to DL Harang, they could hope Jeremy Affeldt can give them 4 or 5 innings and do a Bullpen game.  In addition to Homer or Darryl, Matt Maloney or Matt Belisle could be options. (Belisle seems unlikely)  Bobby Livingston is on his way back, but still looks to be atleast another 2 weeks off (unless there is a setback)

I was going thru the transactions on MLB.COM and noticed the Padres have Outrighted Carlos Guevara to Triple-A. 

San Diego Padres

Outrighted OF Paul McAnulty and RHP Carlos Guevara to Triple-A Portland; Purchased the contract of OF Chip Ambres and also recalled INF Brian Myrow and LHP Joe Thatcher from Triple-A Portland; Placed RHP Brett Tomko on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to July 1, with a right elbow strain.

As many of you know, Guevara was a Rule V Pick from the Reds Farm System last year, but struggled with an injury this year and posted a 1-0 record with a 5.84 ERA in 12.1 IP, allowing 2 HR, while striking out 11, and walking 9.  If I recall, his out pitch was a screwball.

Don't the Padres have to keep him all year on the 25-Man, or we get him back or a PTBNL??