SB Nation User Blog: MontanaPass

Grading NFC West + Houston Players

MontanaPass — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 19:53:54 -0000

OK, the grades from Pro Football Focus for Week 5 are done and I've compiled a list of how our 49ers players compare with other players in the NFC West. And I threw in the Houston Texans players (prior to yesterday's victory over the Bungles) to give us an idea of how they compare.

Once again, this is subjective grading, not objective analysis, and thus the results are affected by whatever biases the two or three people doing the grading possess. Here is a link to the PFF page that explains their grading system. Basically, they grade every player on every play, with about 63% of the grades falling between +0.5 and -0.5 and the maximum/minimum grade for each play being +-2.0. The grades shown below are cumulative grades, accrued over the course of a game and season. This means that the higher the magnitude in either direction, the better, or worse, that player is. Please note that I have left out the penalty grades because they are irrelevant in the vast majority of cases, and thus the displayed grade totals will not necessarily add up. A player's ranking compared to all other NFL players is given as the first number displayed in each entry. Some rankings will be meaningless because the player has not really had many plays to grade - these are almost always the players with several "0.0" grades and a cumulative grade near 0.0.

Links to the appropriate PFF page are located in the headings and it is worth noting that by going to the linked page one can click on the player's name and get a nice chart of that player's grades within that category graphed over the course of the season. Nice feature, and I recommend using it to gain further insight into a player's performance.

Again, the correct way to view these rankings and grades is not as the bible on player performance but as something to improve one's confidence in other, more objective, statistical analyses like DannyInFlorida's FO presentations.

First, the Cumulative Team Grades, and then the individual position grades.

CUMULATIVE OFFENSE
Total Plays On Offense ~ 305
Overall Grade Sum = -40.4
Passing = -0.6
Running = -2.9
Pass Blocking = 0.0
Screen Blocking = 1.5
Run Blocking = -29.9
Penalties = -8.5
QB Sacks = 14
QB Hits = 12
QB Pressures = 24

It's not difficult to see that the -29.9 grade on run blocking is the main problem on offense. The individual grades below confirm this. Also, S. Hill has been either sacked, hit, or pressured on 50 out of approximately 172 offensive plays, or about 30% of all passing plays. Not good at all.

CUMULATIVE DEFENSE
Total Plays On Defense ~ 363
Overall Grade = 32.4
Pass Rush Grade = 9.3
Pass Coverage = 6.2
Run Defense = 28.9
Penalties = -12.0
QB Sacks = 12
QB Hits = 21
QB Pressures = 49

Here, it's the 49er run defense that is carrying the team, as it should, but the pass coverage has not been the greatest, as we will see below in the CBs section.

OFFENSIVE PLAYERS BY POSITION

QBs (Overall,Passing)

7. Kurt Warner ARZ (12.0,13.0)
10. Matt Hasselbeck SEA (11.5,10.0)
11. Matt Schaub HST (10.5,11.0)
14. Shaun Hill SF (5.5,4.5)
28. Marc Bulger SL (0.5,2.5)
44. Seneca Wallace SEA (-1.0,0.0)
50. Kyle Boller SL (-2.0,-3.5)

Shaun Hill is actually doing his job pretty well. He's not the problem with the offense.

HBs (Overall,Pass,Run,Blocking)
12. Justin Forsett SEA (3.0,0.1,1.9,1.0)
24. Frank Gore SF (1.3,0.8,-0.4,0.8)
29. Jason Wright ARZ (0.9,0.4,-0.2,0.7)
31. Ryan Moats HST (0.8,-0.1,0.9,0.0)
45. Julius Jones SEA (0.1,0.7,0.4,-1.0)
53. Sam Gado SL (-0.1,0.0,-0.2,0.1)
60. LaRod Stephens-Howling ARZ (-0.4,-0.2,-0.2,0.0)
63. Michael Robinson SF (-0.6,-1.4,0.0,0.8)
69. Tim Hightower ARZ (-0.8,2.7,-3.2,-0.3)
78. Beanie Wells ARZ (-1.7,-0.1,-1.4,-0.2)
82. Kenneth Darby SL (-2.1,-1.3,-0.6,-0.2)
90. Chris Brown HST (-3.4,-0.5,-2.5,-0.4)
97. Stephen Jackson SL (-6.8,-0.4,-2.3,-3.1)
101. Steve Slaton HST (-7.7,2.1,-6.7,-3.)
102. Glen Coffee SF (-9.7,-1.1,-5.1,-3.5)

The 49ers run game is bad. Really bad. Coffee is the bottom ranked RB in the NFL kind of bad.

FBs (Overall, Pass, Run, Blocking)
12. Moran Norris SF (1.3,0.5,-0.2,1.0)
21. James Casey HST (0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0)
32. Justin Griffith SEA (-0.7,-1.1,-0.2,0.6)
36. Michael Robinson SF (-1.9,0.0,0.0,-1.9)
42. Mike Karney SL (-3.1,-0.1,0.1,-3.1)
46. Dan Kreider ARZ (-4.5,-2.0,0.0,-2.5)
48. Owen Schmitt SEA (-5.4,-0.7,0.0,-4.7)
50. Vonta Leach HST (-6.7,1.2,0.0,-6.9)

TEs (Overall, Pass, Pass Block, Run Block)
20. Cameron Morrah SEA (0.5,0.0,0.0,0.5)
29. Daniel Fells SL (-0.3,-0.3,0.2,1.8)
31. Stephen Spach ARZ (-0.5,-0.9,0.6,1.8)
45. James Casey HST (-1.4,0.0,0.1,-1.5)
46. Delanie Walker SF (-1.8,0.2,0.3,-2.3)
48. Joel Dressen HST (-2.2,0.1,1.2,-3.5)
51. Vernon Davis SF (-2.6,0.5,1.1,-1.7)
56. John Owens SEA (-3.0,-2.2,-0.3,-0.5)
58. Randy McMichael SL (-3.4,-3.8,-0.2,1.6)
68. Owen Daniels HST (-5.5,3.9,-1.8,-6.6)
73. Anthony Becht ARZ (-7.2,-0.5,0.6,-4.8)
73. John Carlson SEA (-7.2,-0.2,-1.5,-4.5)

VD would have an overall positive grade if not for the marginal run blocking.

OTs (Overall,Pass Block,Screen Block,Run Block)
24. Duane Brown HST (1.7,4.3,1.0,-0.6)
25. Tony Pashos SF (1.6,1.7,0.0,0.9)
31. Sean Locklear SEA (0.1,2.2,0.5,-2.6)
34. John Greco SL (0.0,1.1,0.0,-0.1)
47. Barry Sims SF (-0.8,0.2,0.0,0.0)
52. Adam Goldberg SL (-2.0,-2.6,0.0,2.6)
52. Jason Smith SL (-2.0,0.1,0.0,-1.6)
65. Kyle Williams SEA (-3.7,-2.2,0.0,0.4)
70. Eric Winston HST (-4.3,-1.7,0.5,-2.1)
72. Joe Staley SF (-4.6,1.4,0.0,-6.0)
75. Brandon Frye SEA (-5.2,-0.9,0.5,-1.8)
79. Alex Barron SL (-5.6,0.4,0.0,-2.0)
81. Adam Snyder SF (-7.4,-4.5,0.0,-2.9)
83. Ray Willis SEA (-8.4,-0.3,0.0,-7.1)
94. Mike Gandy ARZ (-13.9,9.0,0.0,-1.9)
95. Levi Brown ARZ (-16.4,-12.0,0.5,-1.9)

Joe Staley is not great in run blocking and Adam Snyder isn't good at much of anything.

OGs (Overall,Pass Block,Sceen Block,Run Block)
14. Jacob Bell SL (3.4,2.2,0.5,2.7)
29. Rob Sims SEA (0.7,2.8,0.0,-2.1)
34. Chester Pitts HST (0.5,2.2,0.0,-0.7)
36. Steve Vallos SEA (0.3,0.5,0.0,-0.2)
42. Adam Goldberg SL (0.1,0.1,0.0,0.0)
46. Tony Wragge SF (0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0)
47. Mike Brisiel HST (-0.6,1.7,1.0,-1.3)
61. Mansfield Wrotto SEA (-1.5,1.7,0.0,-1.2)
62. Chris White HST (-1.6,0.4,0.0,-2.0)
73. Richie Incognito SL (-3.7,1.1,0.0,-0.3)
81. Max Unger SEA (-5.4,4.6,-0.5,-7.5)
84. David Baas SF (-6.3,0.1,0.5,-6.9)
87. Chilo Rachal SF (-6.8,-1.9,0.0,-4.9)
87. Deuce Lutui ARZ (-6.8,-8.8,0.5,2.5)
92. Kasey Studdard HST (-9.0,-5.4,1.0,-4.6)
94. Reggie Wells ARZ (-10.3,-8.3,0.5,-2.5)

The problem for both OGs is the horrible run blocking.

Center (Overall, Pass Block,Sceen Block,Run Block)
10. Steve Vallos SEA (3.5,1.1,0.0,2.4)
15. Jason Brown SL (1.2,2.6,-0.5,-0.4)
20. Mark Setterstrom SL (0.1,0.1,0.0,0.0)
22. Eric Heitmann SF (-0.3,1.7,0.5,-1.5)
27. Lyle Sendlein ARZ (-1.7,-3.0,-0.5,2.8)
29. Chris Myers HST (-2.7,1.4,1.5,-4.6)
29. Chris Spencer SEA (-2.7,1.0,-0.5,-3.2)

Eric Heitmann is doing a fantastic job considering the players on his sides.

DEFENSE PLAYERS BY POSITION

DT/NT (Overall,Rush,Coverage,Run)
7. Brandon Mebane SEA (6.1,4.2,0.0,1.9)
12. Aubrayo Franklin SF (3.8,-1.2,0.5,4.5)
13. C.J. Ah You SL (3.6,2.3,0.5,0.8)
15. Colin Cole SEA (3.3,-1.9,0.0,5.2)
29. Amobi Okoye HST (1.4,2.9,1.0,-1.5)
32. Gabe Watson ARZ (0.8,-1.8,0.0,3.6)
37. Bryan Robinson ARZ (0.6,-1.0,0.0,1.6)
37. Hollis Thomas SL (0.6,-1.2,0.0,1.8)
49. Jeff Zgonina HST (-0.1,-0.5,0.0,0.4)
52. Leger Douzable SL (-0.1,0.6,0.0,-0.7)
52. Cory Redding SEA (-0.1,0.0,0.5,-0.6)
58. Deljuan Robinson HST (-0.2,0.0,0.0,0.8)
61. Red Bryant SEA (-1.1,0.0,0.7,0.0)
70. Clifton Ryan SL (-0.7,-2.6,0.5,3.4)
77. Dorell Scott SL (-1.1,-0.1,0.0,-1.0)
89. Frank Okam HST (-1.7,-0.5,0.0,-1.2)
91. Ray McDonald SF (-1.9,-1.3,0.0,0.4)
101. LaJuan Ramsey SL (-3.0,-1.1,0.0,-1.4)
102. Gary Gibson SL (-3.2,-1.9,0.0,-1.3)
106. Craig Terrill SEA (-3.8,-0.3,0.0,-3.5)
116. Shaun Cody HST (-4.8,-1.7,0.0,-3.1)

A. Franklin is having a great contract year. He wants some of that Haynesworth money.

3-4 DEs (Overall,Rush,Coverage,Run)
1. Justin Smith SF (12.2,12.8,-0.5,1.9)
5. Calais Campbell ARZ (6.7,5.7,0.0,1.0)
6. Alan Branch ARZ (5.4,1.6,0.0,3.8)
17. Darnell Docket ARZ (0.9,0.8,0.0,2.1)
18. Ray McDonald SF (0.8,0.8,0.0,0.0)
25. Keilen Dykes ARZ (-0.3,-0.3,0.0,0.0)
31. Demetric Evans SF (-1.0,0.0,0.0,-1.0)
36. Issac Sopoaga SF (-1.1,-0.5,0.0,-0.6)
44. Kentwan Balmer SF (-2.4,-1.8,0.0,-0.6)

Justin Smith is earning his pay and so is McDonald in that 4-man front. Sopoaga started strong but is now sliding badly. Kentwan Balmer is still not contributing much.

4-3 DEs (Overall,Rush,Coverage,Run)
3. Mario Williams HST (11.4,10.2,1.0,2.7)
7. Lawrence Jackson SEA (7.5,5.6,0.5,1.4)
8. James Hall SL (6.5,4.9,0.5,1.1)
11. Darryl Tapp SEA (5.9,2.4,1.0,4.0)
12. Leonard Little SL (5.6,3.6,0.5,2.5)
21. Antonio Smith HST (2.6,4.0,0.5,-0.9)
30. Tim Bulman HST (0.9,1.2,1.0,-0.3)
42. Chris Long SL (0.1,-4.5,0.5,4.1)
44. Will Davis ARZ (-0.1,-0.6,0.5,0.0)
55. C.J. Ah You SL (-0.6,-0.6,0.0,0.0)
59. Tim Jamison HST (-0.7,-0.2,0.0,-0.5)
82. Connor Barwin HST (-2.9,-0.5,0.5,-0.9)
87. Cory Redding SEA (-3.8,-3.6,1.0,-0.2)
93. Patrick Kerney SEA (-4.3,-2.2,1.0,-3.1)

Next week we play against Mario Williams. Look at his pass rush grade of 10.2.

3-4 OLBs (Overall,Rush,Coverage,Run)
3. Parys Haralson SF (6.4,3.4,-0.1,6.1)
5. Clark Haggans ARZ (3.8,1.5,0.4,2.9)
15. Ahmad Brooks SF (0.2,-0.1,0.0,0.3)
15. Marques Harris SF (0.2,0.7,-0.5,0.0)
30. Ali Highsmith ARZ (-1.0,0.0,-1.0,0.0)
37. Chike Okeafor ARZ (-2.5,-2.0,-0.1,-0.4)
42. Manny Lawson SF (-3.4,-4.9,2.0,-0.5)

Parys is a good pass rusher and run defender. Manny is good in coverage and average against the run, but poor in pass rush.

4-3 OLBs (Overall,Rush,Coverage,Run)
3. Zach Diles HST (5.4,-0.2,3.0,2.6)
6. David Vobora SL (4.5,-0.3,-0.9,6.7)
8. Brian Cushing HST (4.0,2.1,-0.7,4.6)
12. Will Witherspoon SL (3.0,-0.3,1.1,2.2)
26. Paris Lenon SL (0.8,-0.1,0.3,0.6)
33. Kevin Bentley HST (0.2,0.0,0.0,0.2)
37. Chris Chamberlain SL (0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0)
45. Will Herring SEA (-0.1,0.5,1.4,-2.0)
58. Leroy Hill SEA (-0.9,-0.1,0.1,-0.9)
62. Xavier Adibi HST (-1.1,0.7,-0.4,-1.4)
67. Aaron Curry SEA (-1.9,3.3,-3.5,2.3)

The Texans have decent OLBs in Diles and Cushing. Aaron Curry can't cover.

ILBs (Overall,Rush,Coverage,Run)
1. Patrick Willis SF (11.4,-0.4,2.7,9.1)
7. Lofa Tatupu SEA (7.2,1.5,0.8,4.9)
12. Takeo Spikes SF (5.2,0.2,3.8,1.7)
14. Karlos Dansby ARZ (5.1,1.4,2.0,1.7)
16. Gerald Hayes ARZ (4.7,-1.0,-0.2,6.9)
20. DeMeco Ryans HST (4.2,-0.5,2.0,3.7)
30. David Hawthorne SEA (3.0,-0.5,0.6,2.9)
36. James Laurinaitis SL (1.6,-1.2,2.3,1.5)
42. Ali Highsmith ARZ (0.6,0.0,0.0,0.6)
57. Scott McKillop SF (-0.1,-0.1,0.0,0.0)

Is P. Willis a great LB or what? Look at his grade against the rush. Spikes had a really bad game against ATL, otherwise he'd be up there, too.

CBs (Overall,Rush,Coverage,Run)
6. Shawntae Spencer SF (5.8,-0.1,4.8,2.1)
17. Kelly Jennings SEA (2.7,0.0,2.2,0.5)
19. Nate Clements SF (2.2,-0.2,1.3,2.1)
19. Dre Bly SF (2.2,-0.3,2.7,0.8)
24. Josh Wilson SEA (1.7,-0.2,2.5,-0.6)
52. Jonathan Wade SL (0.2,-0.5,1.4,0.3)
59. Tarell Brown SF (0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0)
73. Antwaun Molden HST (-0.3,0.0,0.1,-0.4)
76. Ralph Brown ARZ (-0.4,-0.5,-0.7,0.8)
79. Quincy Butler SL (-0.6,0.0,0.3,0.1)
84. Glover Quin HST (-0.8,-0.2,-2.9,2.3)
86. Jacques Reeves HST (-0.9,0.0,0.0,0.1)
96. Bryant McFadden ARZ (-1.6,0.0,-2.3,0.7)
113. Brice McCain HST (-2.5,0.0,-0.3,-2.2)
115. Travis Fisher SEA (-2.6,0.1,-2.9,0.2)
118. Dominique R-C ARZ (-0.1,-0.8,-0.8,-1.0)
130. Bradley Fletcher SL (-3.7,0.0,-3.1,0.4)
135. Dunta Robinson HST (-5.4,0.0,-2.2,-2.2)
138. Fred Bennett HST (-6.4,0.0,-4.5,-1.9)
141. Ken Lucas SEA (-6.7,0.0,-4.6,-2.1)
143. Justin King SL (-7.1,-0.5,-6.5,-0.1)
145. Ronald Bartell SL (-8.2,-0.2,-5.5,-1.5)

Wow. Look at Spencer's grades. He's a good all-around CB. Nate is slipping in coverage and Bly is a pure cover guy.

Safeties (Overall,Rush,Coverage,Run)
21. Craig Dahl SL (1.1,0.2,1.2,0.2)
21. Anthony Smith SL (1.1,0.0,-0.2,1.3)
34. Lawyer Milloy SEA (0.5,-0.1,0.6,0.0)
42. A.J. Otogwe SL (0.3,0.1,0.2,0.0)
44. Matt Ware ARZ (0.2,-0.2,0.3,0.1)
49. David Roach SL (0.1,0.0,0.1,0.0)
57. Quincy Butler SL (0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0)
70. Mark Roman SF (-0.2,0.6,-1.9,1.1)
70. Bernard Pollard HST (-0.2,-0.4,-1.2,1.4)
78. James Butler Sl (-0.7,-0.1,-2.2,1.6)
84. Jordan Babineaux SEA (-0.9,-0.2,0.1,-0.8)
94. Eugene Wilson HST (-1.4,0.0,1.8,-2.2)
99. Michael Lewis SF (-1.6,1.2,-2.4,1.6)
102. Rashad Johnson ARZ (-1.8,-0.3,-1.6,0.1)
104. Nick Ferguson HST (-2.0,-0.1,0.3,-1.2)
119. Deon Grant SEA (-3.8,0.3,-2.4,-1.7)
120. Dominique Barber HST (-4.1,1.1,-0.6,-4.6)
121. Adrian Wilson ARZ (-4.4,0.0,-0.9,-0.5)
127. John Busing HST (-5.2,0.1,-1.3,-4.0)
129. Antrel Rolle ARZ (-5.6,1.5,-4.6,-1.5)
132. Dashon Goldson SF (-6.3,0.5,-6.2,-0.1)

Arrrgh! Goldson failing in coverage. Time to draft or trade for a top Safety.

Kickers (Overall,Kickoffs,Field Goals-Extra Points)
5. Neil Rackers ARZ (5.5,4.1,1.4)
11. Olindo Mare SEA (4.4,1.9,2.5)
12. Joe Nedney SF (4.4,1.8,2.6)
26. Josh Brown SL (1.2,1.7,-0.5)
41. Kris Brown HST (-0.4,1.3,-1.7)

Punters (Overall, Net Yds)
2. Andy Lee (8.2,40.7)
5. Ben Graham ARZ (6.3,40.7)
8. Jon Ryan SEA (5.4,42.0)
10. Donnie Jones SL (4.5,42.3)
25. Matt Turk HST (0.8,39.3)

Andy Lee is having a good year.

Comparing the ATL and SF Offensive Lines.

MontanaPass — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 20:09:45 -0000

The Falcons are coming to town and it appears that the performance of the offensive lines for both teams will be key factors. Atlanta is depending on their high-octane offense to overcome the 49ers' smothering defense to win the game. The 9ers will be depending on their offense to put up enough points to win the game while the defense stops Atlanta's offense. The Falcons are depending on their anemic defense to match up well with the 9er's anemic offense. So it may boil down to which OL performs the best on Sunday, and if that's the case it would be interesting to compare their OL to ours.

I went to the ProFootballFocus website to get the subjective grading results on players of both teams. They grade every player on every play, with about 63% of grades being either +0.5 or -0.5 and the highest and lowest grades on each play being +2.0 and -2.0, respectively. One can argue whether or not subjective grading is all that useful, but it is how every NFL team evaluates their players. As a general guide, positive numbers are good and negative numbers are bad, and the higher the magnitude the better, or worse, the player is. These numbers include all four 9ers games but only three Falcons games.

The following table displays the following PFF information on each player:

1. Rank At Position = that player's ranking compared to other NFL players at that position.

2. His position and name

3. The player's PFF overall score, his pass blocking score, and his run blocking score

FALCONS
64. LT Sam Baker (-4.6, 1.3, -4.9)
73. LG Justin Blalock (-4.8, -0.7, -1.1)
4. C Todd McClure (5.7, 1.4, 4.3)
61. RG Harvey Dahl (-1.8, -1.7, 0.4)
35. RT Tyson Clabo (-0.6, 2.3, -1.9)

49ERS
64. LT Joe Staley (-4.6, 0.3, -4.9)
80. LG David Bass (-6.9, -0.6, -6.8)
23. C Eric Heitmann (1.6, 0.5, -1.7)
74. RG Chilo Rachal (-4.9, -1.1, -3.8)
75. RT RT Adam Snyder (-7.8, -4.9, -2.9)

Interestingly, LTs Joe Staley and Sam Baker are tied at #64 in rank with overall grades of -4.8 and -4.6, respectively. Neither of them is very good at run blocking while Baker holds a small edge in pass blocking. At RT, Atlanta's Tyson Clabo far outranks Adam Snyder, with Snyder's very bad run blocking grade comparing badly to Clabo's.

At OG, Atlanta's LG Justin Blalock and RG Harvey Dahl outclass both Baas and Rachal, but still aren't highly ranked compared to other NFL guards. Neither has a positive grade in run blocking and only Dahl has a marginally positive grade in pass blocking.

At Center, Atlanta's Todd McClure is Atlanta's best O-lineman and is ranked #4 in the NFL compared to all other NFL Centers. NT A. Franklin will have his work cut out for him. Eric Heitmann is the 9er's best O-lineman but still ranks only 23rd and has a negative grade in pass blocking.

Conclusions: Neither of these offensive lines is all that good, which is a little surprising given Atlanta's dependence on their offense. I don't think Atlanta can dominate the 49er's defensive front seven given their relative performances so far. On the other hand, the 49er's OL is pretty sad and will have to improve if the team expects the offense to improve.

Note: After the BYE week I intend to do a complete PFF workup on the 9er's players and units to compare with FloridaDanny's presentation of the FO statistics. A confirmation of FO's objective analysis with PFF's subjective grades should improve our confidence level in whatever conclusions are reached and give us something to argue about over a long two weeks. The PFF grades usually aren't completed until well into the week (it's Friday and only four games are done), so I won't complete this until the leadup to the Texans game.

What I Learned From The 49ers-Vikes Game.

MontanaPass — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 19:10:36 -0000

1. The 9ers defense can play with anyone in the NFL and stop the top RBs in the game. Keeping AP under 100yds was no mean feat. The pass defense isn't quite as good, but it's good enough to stop ARZ and SEA, two prolific passing teams. The changes at FS and CB were good moves - Goldson and Spencer are doing a good job and the competition has produced solid depth and a great Dime package. The DL is doing it's job and Soapoaga, Franklin, J. Smith, and R. McDonald are all playing well. Parys and Manny are getting significant pressure on the QB and forcing bad throws, although I'd like to see more outright sacks. And Nate Clements looks like he's off to a Pro Bowl season. But wherever this team is headed, it's the defense that will take them there.

2. The offensive running game is terrible for a team that is supposed to have a run-first strategy. Look at the yds/att stats - they're abysmal, even for a team without a running game. The play calling is highly questionable, to put it mildly. The OL is not as good as many of us expected it to be. Arguably, our only good O-linemen are Staley, Heitman, and Rachal. They are not opening holes for the running game and at times completely fail in pass pro. The Vikes DT K. Williams spent a lot of time yesterday running amok in the 49ers backfield. This problem may the root cause of the poor running game. Without an improvement in this unit, the offense will go nowhere.

3. Shaun Hill is a better QB than many of us expected. Despite his weak arm, which was on display yesterday at times, he makes good decisions and gets the ball away quickly, important qualities when the OL is as marginal as this one. And Hill is a money player - when there is a need, he comes through with long drives using the pass. Prior to Favre's last-second TD throw, Hill had outplayed him and had a better QB rating. More of the offensive load should be shifted from Gore to Hill, imho.

4. Special Teams is good, but not great. We swapped ST TDs with the Vikes and A. Rossum is off to a slow start this year - is it his last? We need fewer mental mistakes. Nedney and Lee are solid.

5. Turnovers, penalties, & mental mistakes have the potential to either make or break this team given the lack of progress in the offense. There were just too many really stupid mistakes made, like M. Roman's in the end zone, Walker stopping his route just before the ball gets there, and many others. Any team that depends on it's defense to keep them in the game for 60 minutes while struggling to put enough points on the board to win should understand that the margin for error is slim and mistakes will cost them the game. They are winning the turnover battle marginally, and that needs to improve, but one can easily argue that the dumb penalties and mistakes we saw yesterday cost the 49ers a W. There is a fine line between playing with unabated passion and cold discipline that this team must find.

6. Mike Singletary has imprinted his personality on the 49ers in a remarkably short time, but that personality does not include a lot of offensive innovation. It's much better than the erratic Nolan persona, but I'm not sure it has the breadth to include a strong offensive personality. We'll see over the coming weeks. The BYE will be a good time for some statistical analysis that will tell us a lot more about what exactly is going right and wrong with this team.

In the meantime, I think this team can win the NFC West to make the playoffs, but without a more consistent offense this is not a SB team. Feel free to jump in and disagree, but this is what I see right now.

Defense Wins Championships! Now Fix The Offense.

MontanaPass — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 18:40:00 -0000

Congratulations to the 49ers and Coach Singletary on beating the defending NFC champions at home and shutting down one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL! This was no mean feat, and the bulk of the credit must go to the defense. They played a magnificent game and all phases excelled. The D-line, and especially Justin Smith and Issac Sopoaga, played the kind of game we all love to see - Soap was tossing people around and J. Smith made Warner's life miserable. Smith gets my game ball for coming through in the fourth quarter to save the game.

Patrick Willis was a one-man wrecking crew against the run and shut down Hightower on all those outlet passes Warner was forced to throw because of pressure or the lack of open receivers. He had thirteen tackles and an interception. What more can one player do?

Some of us who thought there would be a better pass rush than the team was showing all preseason turned out to be correct - it was magnificent! Forget about the sacks, just count the pressures and it's easy to see how Warner's QB rating fell into the tank. But a pass rush can't be effective without some close coverage in the secondary, and the 9er's DBs came through with flying colors. Nate Clements put on a clinic on how to bust a receiver at the LOS to disrupt his pattern. As a group they made very few mistakes and made the coverage tight enough that Warner couldn't find anyone but Hightower on the outlet and gave the pass rushers a few extra seconds - talk about your symbiotic relationship!

It's often been said that defense wins championships and I'm a believer - all those Walsh teams had extraordinary defenses and it's no coincidence that the teams with dominant defenses usually make it to, and win, the SuperBowl. Personally, I'm thrilled - the 9ers at last have a D that can carry the team to the playoffs.

Now, about that offense. I'm blaming Jimmy Raye for that debacle. I think every 9er fan in world knew that the Cards would be stacking the line and blitzing like crazy because that's what has worked against the 9ers for about five years - why change something that has worked? But apparently, Jimmy Raye didn't get the word on that and it showed. Instead of turning to the screen pass and quick slants and outs to back off the rush, he continued to run despite the fact that the OL was losing at the LOS. Even though Adam Snyder and David Baas had particulary rough games, I won't blame them because they were essentially just overwhelmed by the constant blitzing up the middle and on the right side - something many of us had predicted would happen to perceived weak link Adam Snyder. It's up to the OC to deal with these situations through play calling and simple adjustments like tightening the gaps between linemen. So this one is on Jimmy Raye, not the OL. He has to learn to take what the defense is giving him, whether it's running or passing.

Shaun Hill, given the situation, performed admirably - no INTs and only one FF for a turnover. He didn't give away the game through mistakes. His passing wasn't the most accurate or pretty, but he did get the job done when it was necessary in the fourth quarter. No complaints from me about Hill's play or that of the WRs. There is nothing wrong with this offense that can't be fixed quickly, and with a better mix of play calling I think they can put enough points on the board to win games. That, combined with a top-5 defense, will take this team to the playoffs despite the difficult schedule.

Next Sunday we meet the Seahawks and it will not be easy. They have, imho, one of the best defensive front sevens in the NFL right now and their offense was clicking nicely against the Lambs when I watched the tape of that game. They have an interesting version of the Wildcat that has Hasselbeck tossing to Seneca Wallace who then tosses it back to Hasselbeck or runs it - watch out for Wallace! Otherwise, they have the offensive weapons to destroy a defense if they are not pressured - TE John Carlson, WR T.J. Housh..., and WR Nate Burleson are all great receivers, with Carlson being the most dangerous because he has the hands, agility, and concentration of a top WR . Hasselback has pinpoint accuracy and a nice touch. The 9ers pass rush and DBs will have to have another good game to stop this offense.

On offense, the 9ers can expect almost exactly what they saw in Phoenix only from better players. Aaron Curry will be pass-rushing on obvious passing downs and he is a monster, maybe as good as P. Willis. These guys will destroy our OL if Raye doesn't back them off with screens, slants, outs, and a TE over the middle. The 9ers are going to have to play pass-to-run before they can establish a running game and then use play-action. But given a better offensive game plan and play-calling, there is no reason the 9ers can't win this game. Go Niners!

Are We In For A Samuri Surprise?

MontanaPass — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 23:20:57 -0000

I'm going to throw this out there for consideration because I haven't seen it mentioned previously and see what people think.

We've all seen Singletary's secretiveness concerning the pass rush and offensive passing game during the preseason. There was very, very little pass rushing done and almost as little passing. The explanation was that the coaches wanted to see the players in one-on-one matchups without blitzing or stunts on defense and that the team will be primarily a running team so they wanted to establish a dominance on the OL in run blocking. And these are perfectly reasonable explanations and seemingly a matter of coaching preference.

But I smell a "Samurai Surprise" in the making. Why? Look at our schedule at the beginning of the season - Cards, Seahawks, and Vikes. Our two primary competitors in the NFC West and a tough NFC North team. I'm guessing Sing wants to win two out of three of these games very, very badly and isn't above using a little subterfuge to gain an advantage. If your opponent has no film on your new pass rushing scheme, he can't prepare for it. So the Cards will be facing an unknown pass rush in the first game. Add a couple of wrinkles and neither will the Seahawks. The Vikes are not a passing team, even with Farve at QB now. At the same time, opposing DCs will have no film on the 9er's passing attack other than we may run a lot of play action, which is natural for a running team. We may see them drop 9 into the box to stop Gore, leaving receiver mismatches that can be exploited by a good QB. Now add into the mix that the 9ers offensive ones were practicing extensively against blitzes and stunts and one can fairly deduce that the team has been practicing to take advantage of blitzing defenses. But not showing a thing in preseason games.

So, does anyone else here think Sing is deliberately planning to ambush the Cards and Seahawks in an attempt to get a step up at the beginning of the season? Or am I reading too much into the situation?

NFC West opponent recon.

MontanaPass — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 19:48:53 -0000

With all the changes in the NFC West between seasons, I wanted to get an idea of what the 9ers will be facing within the division when the regular season starts. Every year there are 2nd and 3rd year players who step up into starting positions, rookies who could possibly make a big impact, and coaching changes that result in offensive or defensive scheme changes. So I watched the Cards-Steelers game and listened to the Rams-Jets and Seahawks-Chargers games. I also listened to the Panthers-Giants game last night because the 9ers own Carolina's 1st round draft pick next year and I wanted to scope out the situation there. My report, for what it's worth, is below.

Cards-Steelers:

QB: Kurt is still the man in AZ and he played well, moving the chains easily and treating blitzes as opportunities. The news is that former USC QB Matt Leinart seems to have regained his confidence and played very, very well. St. Pierre, who was given an opportunity to compete for the backup position, wasn't in Leinart's class.

RB: Beanie Wells didn't play because of injury, but Tim Hightower has come to play this year - he's lighter, faster, stronger, and seems to have an attitude. If Wells can play as advertised, this could be a deadly combo.

OL: It's solid, with one glaring exception - Mike Gandy at LT. He was beaten both inside and outside several times. It may be just preseason rust, but he didn't look good at all. He bears watching.

WR: Fuhgitaboutit. It's Fitzgerald and Boldin, and unless the 9ers develop a better pass rush on Warner this year, they will put some serious hurt on the red and gold.

DL: Former 9ers DC Billy Davis was hired as DC and he's installed a standard 3-4. Third-year draft pick Allan Branch is the NT and 2nd-year DE Calais Campbell is the LDE. Watch out for both of these guys. Campbell was in the Steelers' backfield all night and Branch was driving the C back into the QB whenever on the field. I had both of these guys pegged as potential busts when they were drafted. And that's why nobody pays me to evaluate potential. Both of them played some 2-gap and did well against double teams.

LB: Billy Davis has installed his zone blitz package already and was exercising it early and often against the Steelers. He had guys coming from everywhere, but without much success. Big Ben refused to go down and was elusive in the pocket. But now we know what to expect from the Cards - heavy blitzing from the get-go.

DBs: DRC is going to be hard to beat - he plays fast and physical. Wish he played for us. But they have solid players at both safeties and CB, so this is a strength for them this year. They will make the 9ers pay for passes that are off target and have the speed to match up well against our receivers.

Overall:Only a good pass rush is going to neutralize the Card's passing game and their OL is slightly suspect. Their run game will be improved, but nothing we can't handle. The defense is their weakness this year, just like last year, but it isn't the secondary, it's the front seven that may be susceptible to draws and screens because of overpursuit and overeager young players. A heavy dose of Gore and good play action can put points on the board against the Cards.

Rams-Jets:

QB: Bulger is still bad and Kyle Boller hasn't improved much either. Keith Null actually looked better than both of them.

RB: Steven Jackson is still a stud, but nothing we can't handle. Antonio Pittman wasn't bad, but he's not starting material.

WR: Donnie Avery is injured and nobody else looked decent. TE Randy McMichael may be their best receiver.

OL: How old is Richie Incognito? LT Alex Barron looked a little rusty at first and then played well. This line is definitely suspect - the Jets pass rushers overwhelmed them early, sacking Bulger three times.

DL: Another team switching to a 3-4 defense, but it appears to be a Nolan-like hybrid with lots of four down linemen and little blitzing. The big surprise here is that Chris Long does not appear to play in space very well as an OLB. But they still have some good players, including DE Leonard Little and DT Adam Carriker. They didn't play well against the Jets, however, and their personnel doesn't appear to be a good fit for the 3-4.

LB: OLB Will Witherspoon and rookie ILB James Laurenitis were the only players to impress, but it won't be enough.

DBs: They've got a couple of decent safeties in J. Butler and O. Atogwe, but the starting CBs are suspect. Speedster Justin King and Johnathan Wade could have breakout years if they get on the field enough.

Overall: They're still the Lambs and they still don't have the personnel to break out of the cellar. Throwing or running, we can score points on the Lambs because their defense is still pathetic, although it's still early and there was little blitzing. The OL is pretty creaky and susceptible to a good pass rush if we can find one. But Jackson is still a beast, so I would drop the SS into the box and concentrate on him until they show a passing game.

Seahawks-Chargers:

QB: Matt Hasselbeck is back and looking smooth and confident. But I really think Seneca Wallace is the better QB because of his mobility. But either one can beat you in their hybrid WCO, if it's that. They're changing the offense, but to what exactly I can't tell. Maybe more of a power running game but with a WCO heart?

OL: Walter Jones is back at LT, but for how long? Rookie C/G Max Unger saw lots of time at OG and it looks like they plan on plugging him right in. They were good at opening holes for the runners, but not so good in pass pro, but that could just be rust.

RB: They're looking for a few good RBs because the only guy they've got that looks good is Julius Jones. Forsett and Duckett are both pluggers without the size or quickness to be starters. I don't know what the 'Hawks are thinking, but they could do better than this.

WR: The receiver to watch out for is TE John Carlson who has the size, speed, hands, concentration, and body control to become a real star. The primary WRs will be N. Burleson and Housh, though, and either one can burn a secondary. Not much behind them, though, as the 'Hawks tried 15+ guys at the position.

DL: They're staying with their 4-3 and the 9ers would be wise to game plan for their two DTs, Brandon Mebane and Cory Redding, as they were dominating when they were in there. Mebane, a Cal product, has phenomenal strength and Redding is a totally different player now that he's out of Detroit. You know DE Patrick Kearney already, and newcomer Nick Reed made a very strong showing on the other side.

LB: Just writing their names makes me queasy - MLB Lofa Tatupu, OLB Aaron Curry, OLB Leroy Hill. Curry will also see duty as a pass rusher on 3rd downs. Curry is very, very dangerous and can lay some serious hurt on very big guys. Although LT looked pretty good against them in his four carries, the Chargers could not run against the starting front seven with much success.

DBs: CB Ken Lucas got burned bad on a couple of plays and M. Trufant didn't really see much action. This unit didn't play well and the Chargers racked up 300+ yards. This is the weakest unit on defense.

Overall: It's hard to tell what the heck they're trying to do on offense, but the QB/receiver situation is pretty solid. After J. Jones, though, there isn't much, so I would put the heat to a suspect OL and disrupt the passing game with blitzes. On offense, I would attack their secondary as Lucas didn't look good at all and M. Trufant is too short to defense big WRs. The safties looked ordinary.

Panthers-Giants:

QB: Jake Delhomme looked very Warnerish as an immobile pocket passer and got the job done. Nothing spectacular, but solid. Josh McCown was erratic. If Jake gets injured, watch out below.

RB: DeAngelo Williams is a solid starting back and looked good on his six carries for 29 yards. J. Stewart didn't play, but Mike Goodson did and looked pretty good. They have three RBs who can get yardage.

OL: With Jordan Gross on one side and Jeff Otah on the other, this is an OL built for the running game. Nobody is going to overpower these guys and the G-men looked outclassed with the starters in.

WR: Neither Steve Smith nor M. Muhammad played, but Dwayne Jarret did and looked decent in limited action. The surprise here are the hands on FB Brad Hoover. Look for him to get more balls thrown his way during the regular season.

DL: Pathetic. Nobody played well and the Giants just ran over them, literally. Even Giants QB D. Carr(formerly a Panthers QB) ran for double digits. Julius Peppers and Everette Brown looked OK at DE, but were unable to get any serious pressure on the QBs. Of the DTs, Corvey Irvin and Marlon "Big Fave" Favorite looked the best, and neither was a starter. This is a bad situation.

LB: Remember Dan Conner from last year's draft? Well, he's putting the hurt to people at MLB in Carolina. He's a force and one of the few bright spots on defense. The rest looked like scrubs,

DBs: Rookie Sherrod Martin is looking very, very good at CB - he's got the size, closing speed, and great instincts. He was on my mock draft and I regret we didn't take him with that 2nd rounder - he could become a star. Everyone else was ordinary to bad. With the exception of Sherrod, this appears to be a weak unit.

Overall: The offense seems pretty solid with great RBs and good WRs, but if Jake goes down, McCown likely won't be able to carry the load. The defense was pretty bad and it looks as if they just don't have the personnel to turn it around. Given the division they're playing in, I see them coming in third behind the Saints and Falcons but ahead of Tampa Bay with an 8-8 record. No playoffs this year and the 9ers end up with a draft pick at 15-18. If Delhomme gets hurt, make that a 6-10 record with our draft pick at 13-16, which would make me a very happy camper.

Rankers & Mockers, Pt.2

MontanaPass — Fri, 08 May 2009 04:11:48 -0000

In Pt.1 we looked at the predictive ability of our two rankers and two mockers only to discover that they, as a group and individually, were pretty bad at predicting where in the draft individual players would be chosen. We also determined that they were not very good at slotting players in either the round they would be chosen in or even a 64-slot window around any player's draft spot. It was pretty disappointing to me.

But what about the usefulness of ordered lists that rank players within their position? Can they be more useful in predicting which players go where? In order to find out, I reordered the 2009 draft according to position, and you will find it at the end of this post. I was forced to make some judgement calls about which position category certain players belonged in, especially on defense where players can easily switch positions when they enter the pros - CBs become FS, OLBs become SS, and DEs can become either DTs or OLBs. I did the best I could to resolve any differences.

The reordered draft list includes, beginning at the far left, a) the player's order in the draft within his position, b) the player's draft position number, and inside the brackets, c) the player's ranking within his position by our four prognosticators. They are:

MD = Maddog49er, our amateur bigboard creator

DS = NFLDraftScout.com, Bill Walsh's old ranking firm

WF = WalterFootball, a 7-round, all year mocker

FS = Fox Sports, which does a 7-round mock

We are looking for two metrics here; 1) the number of "hits" where our forecaster correctly predicted the player's positional ranking, and, 2) the number of players who made the list regardless of the order in which they were chosen. As an example, if a certain RB was the third one off the board and a forecaster had that player ranked #3 in his positional ranking, that is an "order hit". If a certain WR was chosen 5th in the draft but our forecaster had him as the tenth-ranked WR, that's still a "list hit" because he was on the ranking list even though the order was wrong. At the same time, if there were 30 WRs chosen in the draft and our draft guru has one of those 30 players ranked as the 32nd WR, that's a miss - anything after the last player taken at that position is a miss.

So let's see how our gurus did at predicting the entire draft. The first number inside the brackets is the number of "order hits" and the second number inside the bracket set is the number of "list hits". The number inside the brackets directly after the positional designation represents the number of players chosen at that position in the part of the draft we are testing.

POS(p)    MD    DS      WF     FS
QB(11)   (6,7)    (4,6)    (5,9)   (4,8)
RB(20)   (3,15) (1,14) (1,14) (2,14)
FB(3)     (2,2)     (2,2)    (0,2)   (0,1)
WR(34) (4,22) (3,27) (2,26) (2,25)
TE(22)    (3,14) (1,13) (1,15) (3,13)
OT(18)    (3,16)   (4,15) (3,13) (4,12)
C(7)      (5,7)      (5,6)    (1,6)   (1,5)
OG(13)   (0,8)     (0,8)    (0,8)   (0,7)
DT(23)    (2,19) (8,19)   (4,22) (4,16)
DE(20)    (2,16) (1,15)   (2,16) (2,15)
ILB(8)      (1,5)    (1,5)      (2,5)   (1,5)
OLB(15) (3,8)    (5,8)     (0,9)    (2,7)
SS(10)    (2,9)    (2,7)      (1,8)   (0,5)
FS(7)      (3,5)    (1,5) (1,5)    (2,4)
CB(39)   (6,31) (2,29)    (1,29) (1,27)
------- ------ ------ ------- ------
p=250 (45,184)(39,181)(24,187)(28,164)

Avg. Order Hits = 34 or 13.6%
Avg. List Hits = 179 or 71.6%

As we can see, our gurus are not very good at ordering the players within their position when looking at the entire draft. But they are pretty good at getting the right players onto the list, with an average "list hit" rate of 71.6%. Maybe they can do even better if we just look at the top half of the draft. Let's see:

POS(p)    MD     DS      WF     FS
QB(6)      (6,6)   (4,6)    (4,5)   (4,5)
RB(10)    (1,6)   (1,7)    (1,6)   (2,7)
FB(0)      (0,0)   (0,0)    (0,0)    (0,0)
WR(17)   (4,14) (2,13) (1,13) (3,14)
TE(11)    (3,9)    (1,9)    (1,10) (3,8)
OT(9)      (3,7)    (4,7)    (3,7)   (3,7)
C(4)        (4,4)    (4,4)    (1,3)   (0,3)
OG(6)     (0,4)    (0,4)    (0,4)   (0,4)
DT(12)   (1,10) (8,10) (3,8) (4,9)
DE(10)   (2,9)    (1,8)    (2,8) (2,8)
ILB(4)     (1,3)    (1,3)    (1,3) (1,3)
OLB(7)   (3,4)    (4,5)    (0,3) (2,4)
SS(5)     (1,3)    (1,3)    (1,4)   (0,3)
FS(4)     (3,3)    (1,5)    (1,3)   (2,4)
CB(20) (3,15) (2,16) (1,14) (1,14)
------- ------ ------ ------- ------
p=125 (35,97)(34,101)(20,91)(27,93)

Avg. Order Hits = 29.0 or 23.2%
Avg. List Hits = 95.5 or 76.4%

Well, our gurus managed to improve the number of players they correctly ordered within their position to almost 25% in the top half of the draft. The number of players correctly placed onto the list improved marginally to about 76%. But let's see how they did just with the top two rounds only:

POS(p)    MD     DS     WF    FS
QB(4)      (4,4) (4,4)   (4,4) (4,4)
RB(4)      (0,4) (1,4)   (1,4) (1,4)
FB(0)      (0,0) (0,0)   (0,0) (0,0)
WR(8)     (2,8) (2,7)   (1,6) (2,7)
TE(2)      (1,2)   (1,2)   (1,2) (1,1)
OT(8)      (3,7)   (4,7)   (3,7) (3,7)
C(3)       (3,3)    (3,3)   (1,3) (0,3)
OG(1)    (0,1)    (0,1)   (0,1) (0,1)
DT(7)     (0,6)    (5,6)   (3,6) (3,6)
DE(10) (2,8)    (1,8)   (2,8) (2,8)
ILB(3)    (1,3)    (1,3)   (1,3) (1,3)
OLB(2) (2,2)    (2,2)   (0,2) (2,2)
SS(3)    (1,2)    (1,2)   (0,2) (0,2)
FS(2)     (2,2)   (1,1)   (1,1) (1,1)
CB(7)    (1,5)   (1,6)   (1,5) (1,5)
------- ------ ------ ------- ------
p=64   (22,57)(27,56) (19,54)(21,54)

Avg. Order Hits = 22.3 or 34.8%
Avg. List Hits = 55.3 or 86.3%

Within the top two rounds, our prognosticators did fairly well, corectly ordering over a third of the players within their positions and correctly placing, on average, over 86% of the players chosen in the first two rounds on their lists.

So what conclusions can we reach based on this analysis? I think it would be fair to say:

1. None of our gurus is very good at correctly predicting the order in which players will be taken within their position, although they did correctly order over a third of the players in the first two rounds.

2. Our gurus actually are fairly good at getting the right players onto the list, ranging from about 70% for the entire draft to better than 85% for the first two rounds.

I'll let the reader make his own judgements about which of our gurus is better at what predictions, but I suspect the differences are statistically insignificant. In addition, this is only one draft and perhaps our gurus had a bad year. Or maybe it was a good year. We don't know because it's a sample of one. But this exercise has made me a little more cautious about accepting mocks as any kind of accurate draft prediction and has tilted me towards favoring the use of positional ordered lists when looking at the draft. They may not get the order right after the first two rounds, but they are pretty good at getting the players who will actually be drafted onto the positional lists. But make your own judgements.

2009 NFL DRAFT (by position)

Note1: An "*" asterisk indicates a "miss".

Note2: The order within the brackets is MD,DS,WF,FS

(QB-11)
1-1(1,1,1,1) - Matt Stafford
2-5(2,2,2,2) - Mark Sanchez
3-17(3,3,3,3) - Josh Freeman
4-44(4,4,4,4) - Pat White
5-101(5,6,10,7) - Stephen McGee
6-151(6,5,5,5) - Rhett Bowmar
7-171(*,8,6,9) - Nate Davis
8-174(7,10,11,*) - Tom Brandstater
9-178(*,*,9,10) - Mike Teel
10-196(*,*,*,*) - Keith Null
11-201(*,*,*,*) - Curtis Painter

(RB-20)
1-12(2,2,2,2) - Knowshon Moreno
2-27(3,3,3,3) - Donald Brown
3-31(1,1,1,1) - Chris Wells
4-53(8,4,4,4) - LeSean McCoy
5-65(5,6,7,5) - Shonn Greene
6-74(13,10,15,10) - Glen Coffee
7-111(12,12,13,14) - Mike Goodson
8-129(4,5,6,6) - Andre Brown
9-134(*,*,*,*) - Gartrell Johnson
10-158(*,*,*,*) - Cody Glen
11-173(7,9,9,7) - Javon Ringer
12-185(10,8,8,11) - Cedric Peerman
13-192(16,16,17,18) - Aaron Brown
14-195(14,13,10,13) - James Davis
15-209(15,*,*,*) - Scott Bernard
16-211(*,*,*,19) - Chris Ogbonnaya
17-212(18,14,12,*) - Javarris Williams
18-215(*,*,*,*) - Fui Vakapuna
19-240(*,*,*,*) - LaRod Stephens-Howling
20-250(6,7,5,8) - Rashad Jennings

(FB-3)
1-128(1,1,*,2) - Tony Fiammetta
2-145(2,2,1,*) - Quinn Johnson
3-169(*,*,3,*) - Frank Summers

(WR-34)
1-7(4,3,3,3) - Darius Heyward-Bey
2-10(2,1,1,1) - Michael Crabtree
3-19(1,2,2,2) - Jeremy Maclin
4-22(3,4,9,4) - Percy Harvin
5-29(5,7,5,5) - Hakeem Nicks
6-30(7,6,4,7) - Kenny Britt
7-36(6,5,6,6) - Brian Robiske
8-50(8,9,17,9) - Mohamed Massaquoi
9-82(14,8,8,10) - Derrick Williams
10-83(*,26,33,26) - Brandon Tate
11-84(11,12,12,15) - Mike Wallace
12-85(17,16,11,13) - Ramses Barden
13-87(20,19,25,14) - Patrick Turner
14-91(15,21,21,*) - Deon Butler
15-99(9,10,7,8) - Juaquin Iglesias
16-107(10,13,14,16) - Mike Thomas
17-108(*,*,*,28) - Brian Hartline
18-124(12,11,10,11) - Louis Murphy
19-127(21,15,16,18) - Austin Collie
20-140(18,20,19,23) - Johnny Knox
21-141(19,18,*,20) - Kenny McKinley
22-144(16,14,18,12) - Jarrett Dillard
23-160(29,22,22,*) - Brooks Foster
24-175(*,33,*,*) - Quinten Lawrence
25-194(*,24,13,17) - Brandon Gibson
26-206(22,27,26,31) - Dominique Edison
27-224(*,30,34,*) - Demetrius Byrd
28-229(*,*,*,*) - Manuel Johnson
29-232(*,*,*,*) - Julian Edelman
30-233(*,*,*,32) - Sammie Stroughter
31-243(*,*,29,*) - Marko Mitchell
32-251(*,*,*,*) - Derek Kinder
33-252(*,*,*,*) - Freddie Brown
34-253(*,31,27,25) - Tiquan Underwood

(TE-22)
1-20(1,1,1,1) - Brandon Pettigrew
2-64(7,6,9,*) - Richard Quinn
3-71(*,*,*,*) - Matt Shaughnessy
4-89(2,2,2,2) - Jared Cook
5-98(5,4,3,5) - Chase Coffman
6-100(6,8,5,6) - Travis Beckum
7-121(3,5,6,4) - Shawn Nelson
8-122(9,9,10,9) - Anthony Hill
9-149(10,*,8,*) - Davon Drew
10-152(4,3,4,3) - James Casey
11-153(*,7,7,7) - Cornelius Ingram
12-161(*,*,20,14) - John Nalbone
13-170(*,*,*,*) - George Bussey
14-180(12,*,*,*) - Zach Miller
15-184(13,13,12,10) - Bear Pascoe
16-202(*,*,*,*) - Brandon Myers
17-208(14,12,11,12) - John Phillips
18-221(*,*,*,*) - Eddie Williams
19-237(*,*,*,*) - Jake O'Connell
20-241(*,*,*,*) - David Johnson
21-248(8,10,13,13) - Cameron Morrah
22-255(11,11,16,8) - Dan Gronkowski

(OT-18)
1-2(1,1,1,1) - Jason Smith
2-6(3,3,3,3) - Andre Smith
3-8(2,2,2,2) - Eugene Monroe
4-23(4,4,4,4) - Michael Oher
5-39(5,5,5,5) - Eben Britton
6-54(7,6,7,8) - Phil Loadholt
7-58(11,11,14,11) - Sebastian Vollmer
8-60(6,7,5,6) - William Beatty
9-75(19,16,*,*) - Robert Brewster
10-109(9,9,13,10) - TJ Lang
11-135(12,12,10,13) - Troy Kropog
12-139(*,*,*,*) - Colin Brown
13-155(15,15,12,*) - Xavier Fulton
14-156(*,*,*,*) - Garrett Reynolds
15-159(13,13,11,12) - Fenuki Tupou
16-162(8,8,8,7) - Jamon Meredith
17-181(17,14,*,*) - Andrew Gardner
18-228(14,*,*,*) - Lydon Murtha

(Center-7)
1-21(1,1,1,2) - Alex Mack
2-28(2,2,3,3) - Eric Wood
3-49(3,3,2,1) - Max Unger
4-77(4,4,5,*) - Antoine Caldwell C/OG
5-106(5,5,4,5) - Jonathan Luigs
6-225(7,*,*,*) - Blake Schlueter C
7-226(6,6,6,4) - A.Q. Shipley C

(OG-13)
1-51(3,2,2,3) - Andy Levitre OG
2-78(7,6,7,8) - Louis Vasquez OG
3-79(4,4,5,4) - Kraig Urbik OG
4-123(*,*,13,*) - Rich Ohrnberger OG
5-132(*,*,*,*) - Seth Olsen OG
6-163(1,1,1,1) - Duke Robinson OG
7-167(2,3,3,2) - Herman Johnson OG
8-193(*,*,*,*) - Matt Slauson OG
9-213(*,*,*,*) - Paul Fanaika OG
10-236(8,7,11,6) - Jaimie Thomas OG/OT
11-239(*,*,*,*) - Ryan Durand OG
12-246(10,10,*,*) - Lance Louis OG
13-254(5,5,4,7) - Trevor Canfield OG

(DT-23)
1-3(2,1,2,1) - Tyson Jackson
2-9(1,2,1,2) - B.J. Raji
3-24(4,3,3,3) - Peria Jerry
4-32(5,4,4,5) - Evander Hood
5-40(6,5,5,6) - Ron Brace NT
6-56(7,9,7,7) - Fili Moala
7-62(9,7,9,11) - Sen'Derrick Marks
8-67(8,8,10,8) - Alex Magee
9-68(3,6,6,4) - Jarron Gilbert
10-72(20,18,15,*) - Terrance Knighton
11-81(12,11,18,*) - Roy Miller
12-93(16,17,17,16) - Corvey Irvin
13-103(11,10,11,10) - Dorell Scott
14-113(23,*,24,*) - Vaughn Martin
15-115(15,13,12,14) - Sammie Lee Hill
16-133(*,*,8,*) - Tyronne Green
17-136(18,19,14,15) - Terrance Taylor
18-205(*,21,*,20) - Ra'Shon Harris
19-207(*,*,23,*) - Myron Pryor
20-210(17,15,13,12) - Vance Walker
21-234(*,*,21,*) - Darryl Richard
22-244(19,12,16,9) - Ricky Jean-Francois
23-249(13,16,19,*) - Clinton McDonald

(DE,DE/OLB-20)
1-11(2,3,2,2) - Aaron Maybin
2-13(1,1,1,1) - Brian Orakpo
3-16(7,7,7,6) - Larry English
4-18(3,4,4,3) - Robert Ayers
5-43(6,2,3,5) - Everette Brown
6-45(11,8,9,8) - Clint Sintim
7-46(5,5,6,7) - Connor Barwin
8-52(12,12,20,11) - David Veikune
9-57(9,10,11,10) - Paul Kruger
10-63(10,11,10,13) - Cody Brown
11-70(4,6,5,4) - Michael Johnson
12-105(17,19,19,16) - Henry Melton
13-110(*,*,23,*) - Victor Butler
14-117(13,13,16,12) - Kyle Moore
15-120(14,14,14,14) - Brandon Williams
16-125(8,9,8,9) - Lawrence Sidbury
17-182(*,*,*,*) - Jarius Wynn
18-199(*,*,*,*) - Stryker Sulak
19-204(*,*,*,*) - Will Davis
20-247(18,*,*,*) - Nick Reed

(ILB-8)
1-4(1,1,1,1) - Aaron Curry
2-35(3,3,3,3) - James Laurinaitis
3-38(2,2,2,2) - Rey Maualuga
4-118(*,*,*,*) - Stanley Arnoux
5-137(*,7,8,6) - Jason Phillips
6-146(5,*,6,*) - Scott McKillop
7-150(4,5,*,4) - Jasper Brinkley
8-176(*,*,*,*) - Spencer Adkins

(OLB-15)
1-15(1,1,2,1) - Brian Cushing
2-26(2,2,1,2) - Clay Matthews
3-69(3,3,8,7) - Jason Williams
4-76(11,13,10,*) - Levy DeAndre
5-97(*,5,3,4) - Tyrone McKenzie
6-104(7,6,9,9) - Kaluka Maiava
7-126(*,*,*,*) - Slade Norris LB
8-130(5,*,5,*) - Gerald McRath
9-154(3,4,4,3) - Marcus Freeman
10-186(*,*,*,*) - Robert Henson
11-197(14,14,*,*) - Stephen Hodge
12-214(*,*,*,*) - J.D. Folsom
13-218(*,*,*,*) - Brad Jones
14-230(*,*,*,*) - Moise Fokou
15-235(*,*,6,6) - Zack Follett

(SS-10)
1-34(1,1,2,2) - Patrick Chung
2-47(7,*,*,*) - Michael Mitchell
3-55(2,2,1,1) - William Moore
4-116(3,3,4,3) - Chip Vaughn
5-147(8,7,3,*) - Nic Harris
6-166(4,4,5,4) - Michael Hamlin
7-189(*,*,*,*) - Kevin Ellison SS
8-190(7,*,*,5) - Al Afalava
9-231(6,8,6,*) - Jamarca Sanford
10-245(5,5,9,*) - Courtney Greene

(FS-7)
1-33(1,1,1,1) - Louis Delmas
2-48(2,4,5,3) - Darcel McBath
3-95(3,2,2,2) - Rashad Johnson
4-114(5,5,*,4) - David Bruton
5-165(4,3,6,*) - Chris Clemons
6-219(*,*,*,*) - Curtis Taylor
7-223(*,*,*,*) - Troy Nolan

(CB-39)
1-14(1,1,1,1) - Malcolm Jenkins
2-25(3,3,3,4) - Vontae Davis
3-37(5,4,4,6) - Alphonso Smith
4-41(2,2,2,2) - Darius Butler
5-42(13,8,10,8) - Jarius Byrd
6-59(10,10,12,12) - Sherrod Martin
7-61(4,5,5,3) - Sean Smith
8-66(8,11,18,14) - Bradley Fletcher
9-73(32,*,*,31) - Derek Cox DB
10-80(6,7,7,9) - Kevin Barnes
11-86(11,18,14,10) - Asher Allen
12-88(17,19,20,20) - Lardarius Webb
13-90(16,12,28,15) - Christopher Owens
14-92(23,26,29,27) - Jerraud Powers
15-94(28,*,*,22) - Ryan Mouton
16-96(14,16,9,21) - Keenan Lewis
17-102(19,13,15,13) - Donald Washington
18-112(26,*,27,*) - Glover Quin
19-119(9,6,6,7) - D.J. Moore
20-131(18,15,25,23) - Greg Toler
21-138(*,*,*,*) - William Middleton
22-143(22,14,31,16) - DeAngelo Smith
23-148(20,21,24,18) - Brandon Hughes
24-157(12,20,8,11) - Victor Harris
25-168(30,29,22,*) - Joe Burnett
26-177(24,23,*,*) - Don Carey
27-179(27,25,17,26) - Morgan Trent
28-183(*,22,*,19) - Cary Harris
29-187(21,*,*,*) - Brandon Underwood
30-188(25,24,26,*) - Brice McCain
31-191(15,17,23,17) - Coye Francies
32-200(*,*,*,*) - DeAndre Wright
33-203(33,*,19,*) - Jason McCourty
34-216(*,28,13,29) - Captain Munnerlyn
35-217(*,*,*,*) - E.J. Biggers
36-220(*,27,32,*) - Ellis Lankster
37-238(*,*,*,*) - Stoney Woodson
38-242(*,*,*,*) - Nick Schommer
39-227(7,9,11,5) - Mike Mickens

(Misc)
142() - Kevin Huber P
164() - Thomas Morstead P
172() - David Buehler K
198() - Jake Ingram LS
222() - Pat McAfee K
256() - Ryan Succop K

Rankers & Mockers, Pt.1

MontanaPass — Fri, 01 May 2009 17:45:14 -0000

FOOCH'S NOTE: Given the sheer volume of work here I thought this was worth moving to the front page. Due to said volume, I moved most of it to after the jump.

OK, the draft is over and we're all looking forward to seeing how the team improves this year. Except that I am not finished with the draft just yet. Like most people here, I rely on others for my information when mocking the 9ers draft or the entire first round, or even the entire draft, which I attempted to do last year. But there is a problem - the draft turned out completely different from what I exected, with players expected to go in the 2nd round staying on the board until the 6th or 7th rounds and other players that weren't even ranked or mocked appearing out of thin air to be picked in the middle rounds. So I began asking questions, questions like;

1. Just how accurate are the rankers and mockers?

2. Is there any difference between rankers and mockers?

3. Are position rankings more useful than mocks and big boards?

Answers and explanations begin after the jump.

In an effort to glean some answers to these questions, I chose four mockers and rankers to compare. They are:

1. MD - Maddog49er. He is a dedicated amateur, a schoolteacher from Ohio who hangs out over at the 49ersWebzone and each year comes up with a draft bigboard containing 256 names ranked in order similar to the way NFLDraftScout does it's rankings. Just before the draft, he modifies the first two rounds for more of a mock draft format where he makes assumptions about which players go to which teams.

2. DS - NFLDraftScout. Bill Walsh's old firm was absorbed by CBS Sports last year and they do ranking only, with no adjustments for team drafting probabilities.

3. WF - Walter Football. Most of you probably know the site. He works hard on the draft, is knowledgeable, and always has a good reason for his selections. And he writes well, so it's one of my favorite mock sites. He does a full 7-round mock and follows prospects all year. He also ranks by position in addition to his mock.

4. FS - Fox Sports. I chose to include them mostly because I have no impression of the quality of their mock, which is a full 7 rounds, and I wanted to include a random participant.

At the end of this post you will find the full 256-player draft order that I took from the NFL draft tracker. Within the brackets located directly after the draft position number are the offsets between the actual position the player was selected and the predicted position for each of the mockers and drafters. The order of the offsets, delimited by commas, is: (MD,DS,WF,FS), and the number indicates the relative position. A number of +5 means the prognosticator had this player going five selections earlier. A number of -5 means the prognosticator had this player going 5 selections later. "+" means "before", and "-" means "after".

You will also see some asterisks* after certain numbers - those indicate that the player chosen at that spot in the draft was not on that prognosticator's board at all - a complete miss. Any subsequent nuimbers within that set of brackets also indicates a complete miss. As I used a program to parse the lines and calculate the offsets, I made the assumption that the prognosticator's prediction was the 257th position - off the board.

So let's take a look at how things went. The first thing I looked at were HITS & MISSES, broken out by round for each participant. A "HIT" is a direct match between where the player was selected and the prediction, regardless of which team selected. A "MISS" occurs when the player selected at that position doesn't show up on the forecaster's board at all.

HITS & MISSES:
RD(p) MD DS WF FS
1(32) = (4,0) (1,0) (5,0) (3,0)
2(32) = (1,0) (1,0) (2,1) (2,1)
3(36) = (0,2) (0,2) (0,5) (2,6)
4(36) = (0,5) (2,7) (0,5) (0,9)
5(37) = (0,7) (0,7) (0,8) (0,14)
6(36) = (0,13)(0,14)(0,16)(0,17)
7(47) = (0,26)(0,25)(0,29)(0,31)
--------------------------------------------
(256) (5,53)(4,55)(7,64)(7,78)

As you can see, direct hits were pretty rare outside the first two rounds, and as a percentage of attempts was pretty pathetic for all participants. More interesting are the number of complete misses where the player didn't even show up on the forecaster's board. Everyone did fairly well up until the 6-7th rounds, when the participants had fewer than half the selections on their boards. Lesson? You might as well throw darts at a list when you get to the last two rounds. Nobody knows nothin'.

OK, so maybe expecting these guys to hit home runs is a little unrealistic. Let's try another test. This time, we'll count it as a winner if the forecaster selected the player in the same round. Let's see how that works out.

ROUND SLOTTING(same round)
RD(p) MD DS WF FS
1(32)   (25) (25) (27) (26)
2(32)   (16) (14) (14) (15)
3(36)   (11) (10) (7) (10)
4(36)   (7) (11) (5) (7)
5(37)   (3) (8) (4) (4)
6(36)   (4) (8) (4) (5)
7(47)   (5) (8) (4) (4)

Not so bad for the first round, but then the hits fall off rapidly. Lesson? None of these guys are particularly good at slotting players by round after the 1st - you can't depend on any of them to slot a given player into his correct draft round.

But maybe we're still a little too demanding, so let's try another test. This time, we'll count it as a hit if the forecaster has predicted this player will go anywhere within +-32 selections, that is, plus or minus an entire round. All the forecaster has to do is put the player anywhere within a 64-selection window. Easy, right? Let's see.

COARSE SLOTTING(+-32)
RF(p) MD   DS WF FS
1(32)   (32) (32) (31) (32)
2(32)   (24) (28) (23) (27)
3(36)   (18) (17) (12) (13)
4(36)   (16) (15) (8)   (11)
5(37)   (8) (12)   (8)   (10)
6(36)   (10) (11) (9)   (11)
7(47)   (6) (8)    (3)    (3)

Well, it's somewhat better, but only one participant had at least half the selections within two rounds by the time the 3rd round is over.

Frankly, at this point I'd have to say things aren't going well for any of our participants, but let's try one more thing. We'll calculate the mean and standard deviation for each participant's 1st round selections. We're looking for the average offset between the actual selection point and the forecaster's prediction in the first round.

OFFSET MEAN & STANDARD DEVIATION
        MEAN STD DEV
MD (8.06)     (10.5)
DS (7.16)     (9.54)
WF (7.75)     (13.0)
FS   (6.91)     (9.62)

Ouch! In the 1st round, the average offset was 7-8 positions, but what's even worse is the standard deviation, which is a measurement of the variability of the data within a set. It is simply the square root of the mean of the squares of the data points, and in a normal, or Gaussian, distribution the standard deviation is the range which will include about 67% of all selections. What one would like to see here is a 2-3 point standard deviation, not 9-13. This indicates the data is wildly variable and probably not very useful. I don't think it's a normal distribution like one finds in the Bell Curve or an IQ distibution curve or other similar natural distributon curves.

So far, the most significant thing I can confidently say is that there is really not much difference between the rankers and the mockers when it comes to forecasting draft position for individual players. But I think it's pretty obvious from the above that nobody is very good, or even stands out from the pack, when it comes to draft prognostications. But that doesn't mean that they're worthless, either, because I'm pretty certain I cannot do any better. But perhaps we all should be downing a larger dose of salt whenever we start taking these things too seriously.

That's all for Part 1, which looks at bigboard and full mock accuracy. If there is sufficient interest, in Part 2 I'll look at how accurate our forecasters are when they rank players by position. Do they at least get the order correct when ranking specific positions, like QB or RB or DTs? Are some forecasters better at this than others? Maybe we fans should be using position rankings instead of mocks and bigboards when making our mock selections. Let me know if you're interested. Also, feel free to use the data below any way you choose if you feel like doing some analysis. Going through all those numbers can make one dizzy, however, so I highly recommend using a program to parse the file. I did not include the original text files that contain the ranking and mock information in order to keep the post from becoming excessively large, but if anyone wants to see them, I'l put them up. All the mock and ranking data was taken on the morning of the draft.

NOTE: Remember that the order within the brackets is

(MD,DS,WF,FS)

FULL 2009 DRAFT
1(0,-4,0,0)Lions - Matt Stafford QB
2(0,-1,0,0)Rams - Jason Smith OT
3(-6,-4,-6,-2)Chiefs - Tyson Jackson DE/DT
4(+1,+3,+1,+1)Seahawks - Aaron Curry ILB
5(-3,-1,-3,+1)Jets - Mark Sanchez QB
6(0,-5,0,-2)Bengals - Andre Smith OT
7(-15,-11,0,-22)Raiders - Darius Heyward-Bey WR
8(+4,+4,-2,+2)Ravens - Eugene Monroe OT
9(+4,-1,-3,-3)Packers - B.J. Raji NT
10(0,+8,+6,+3)49ers - Michael Crabtree WR
11(-6,-20,-7,0)Bills - Aaron Maybin DE/OLB
12(-6,-3,-17,-11)Broncos - Knowshon Moreno RB
13(+2,+4,+8,+4)Redskins - Brian Orakpo DE
14(+2,+2,0,-2)Saints - Malcolm Jenkins CB/FS
15(-16,-1,+2,+1)Texans - Brian Cushing OLB
16(-27,-28,-25,-10)Chargers - Larry English DE/OLB
17(+4,0,-2,-12)Bucs - Josh Freeman QB
18(-5,-15,-3,+5)Broncos - Robert Ayers DE/OLB
19(+12,+11,-3,+2)Eagles - Jeremy Maclin WR
20(-8,-3,-8,-4)Lions - Brandon Pettigrew TE
21(-11,-15,-11,-11)Browns - Alex Mack C
22(-5,-7,-56,-8)Vikes - Percy Harvin WR
23(+8,+10,+12,+13)Ravens - Michael Oher OT
24(-17,+3,-3,-3)Falcons - Peria Jerry DT
25(-14,-3,-1,-21)Dolphins - Vontae Davis CB
26(-9,+4,+11,+11)Packers - Clay Matthews OLB
27(+6,-5,-4,-11)Colts - Donald Brown RB
28(-18,-11,-10,-12)Bills - Eric Wood C
29(-1,-12,-16,-7)Giants - Hakeem Nicks WR
30(-14,-7,-6,-26)Titans - Kenny Britt WR
31(+17,+17,+14,+10)Cards - Chris Wells RB
32(-17,+6,+8,-1)Steelers - Evander Hood DT
----------------------------------------------------------------------
33(-7,-17,-17,-15)Lions - Louis Delmas FS
34(-16,-9,-3,-17)Pats - Patrick Chung SS
35(+9,+8,+2,0)Rams - James Laurinaitis ILB
36(0,+6,-8,-18)Browns - Brian Robiske WR
37(-11,+3,+2,-20)Broncos - Alphonso Smith CB
38(+18,+18,+15,+20)Bengals - Rey Maualuga ILB
39(+13,+14,+23,+19)Jags - Eben Britton OT
40(-14,-7,-16,+1)Pats - Ron Brace NT
41(+22,+17,+16,+7)Pats - Darius Butler CB
42(-62,-21,-54,-29)Bills - Jarius Byrd CB
43(+6,+24,0,+18)Panthers - Everette Brown DE/OLB
44(-16,-18,-35,-25)Dolphins - Pat White QB/WR
45(-25,-3,-10,0)Giants - Clint Sintim DE/OLB
46(+17,+6,+12,+2)Texans - Connor Barwin DE/OLB
47(-123,-157,-210*,-210)Raiders - Michael Mitchell SS
48(-18,-58,-29,-19)Broncos - Darcel McBath CB
49(-2,+3,+3,+21)Seahawks - Max Unger C/OT
50(+3,-21,-78,-18)Browns - Mohamed Massaquoi WR
51(-44,-31,-38,-26)Bills - Andy Levitre OG
52(-50,-50,-114,-20)Browns - David Veikune DE/OLB
53(-38,+1,-8,-8)Eagles - LeSean McCoy RB
54(+11,+19,0,-6)Vikes - Phil Loadholt OT
55(-9,0,-3,+5)Falcons - William Moore SS
56(-2,-28,+8,+9)Colts - Fili Moala DT
57(-6,-19,-13,+2)Ravens - Paul Kruger DE
58(-38,-40,-62,-22)Pats - Sebastian Vollmer OT
59(-13,-13,-9,-39)Panthers - Sherrod Martin CB/FS
60(+33,+22,+40,+38)Giants - William Beatty OT
61(+16,+16,+31,+18)Dolphins - Sean Smith CB/FS
62(-15,-13,-20,-62)Titans - Sen'Derrick Marks DT
63(-4,-15,-24,-32)Cards - Cody Brown DE/OLB
64(-44,-21,-67,-113)Broncos - Richard Quinn TE
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
65(+12,+5,-33,+2)Jets - Shonn Greene RB
66(-9,-20,-92,-39)Rams - Bradley Fletcher CB
67(+2,-10,-21,-7)Chiefs - Alex Magee DT
68(+34,+19,+21,+37)Bears - Jarron Gilbert DE/DT
69(-19,+5,-57,-58)Cowboys - Jason Williams OLB
70(+45,+28,+28,+51)Bengals - Michael Johnson DE
71(-186*,-73,-67,-83)Raiders - Matt Shaughnessy TE
72(-136,-124,-37,-185*)Jags - Terrance Knighton NT
73(-180,-184*,-184,-177)Jags - Derek Cox DB
74(-82,-49,-106,-183*)49ers - Glen Coffee RB
75(-111,-79,-166,-182*)Cowboys - Robert Brewster OT
76(-127,-147,-179,-181*)Lions - Levy DeAndre OLB
77(-20,-11,-9,-37)Texans - Antoine Caldwell OG
78(-96,-55,-70,-60)Chargers - Louis Vasquez OG
79(-27,-21,-31,-10)Steelers - Kraig Urbik OG
80(+18,+21,+27,-6)Redskins - Kevin Barnes CB
81(-60,-36,-39,-176*)Bucs - Roy Miller DT
82(-17,+13,+30,-6)Lions - Derrick Williams WR
83(-174*,-108,-174*,-77)Pats - Brandon Tate WR
84(+6,-15,-100,-17)Steelers - Mike Wallace WR
85(-37,-35,+13,-9)Giants - Ramses Barden WR
86(+1,-50,-28,-7)Vikes - Asher Allen CB
87(-63,-57,-156,-12)Dolphins - Patrick Turner WR
88(-34,-54,-76,-65)Ravens - Lardarius Webb CB/KR
89(+51,+35,+24,+47)Titans - Jared Cook TE
90(-31,-3,-167*,-19)Falcons - Christopher Owens CB
91(-24,-75,-77,-166*)Seahawks - Deon Butler WR
92(-47,-136,-165*,-119)Colts - Jerraud Powers CB
93(-94,-97,-39,-85)Panthers - Corvey Irvin DT
94(-99,-163*,-163,-68)Titans - Ryan Mouton CB
95(+24,+29,+44,+42)Cards - Rashad Johnson FS
96(-13,-20,+13,-69)Steelers - Keenan Lewis CB
97(-4,-7,+37,0)Pats - Tyrone McKenzie OLB
98(+25,+33,+22,+11)Bengals - Chase Coffman TE
99(+31,+20,+50,+40)Bears - Juaquin Iglesias WR
100(+20,-12,-62,0)Giants - Travis Beckum TE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
101(+27,+5,-108,-69)Cowboys - Stephen McGee QB
102(-25,+7,-23,-2)Chiefs - Donald Washington CB
103(-11,0,-4,+19)Rams - Dorell Scott DT
104(-40,-21,-86,-41)Browns - Kaluka Malava ILB
105(-93,-101,-45,-64)Bears - Henry Melton DE
106(-11,-5,+43,-29)Bengals - Jonathan Luigs C
107(+31,0,+26,+4)Jags - Mike Thomas WR
108(-148,-121,-149*,-84)Dophins - Brian Hartline WR
109(+22,+35,-6,+30)Packers - TJ Lang OT
110(-147*,-147,-108,-147)Cowboys - Victor Butler DE
111(-27,-38,-76,-93)Panthers - Mike Goodson RB
112(-54,-53,-128,-145*)Texans - Glover Quin CB
113(-117,-144*,-76,-144)Chargers - Vaughn Martin NT
114(+28,-7,-39,-15)Broncos - David Bruton FS
115(-69,-31,+48,-44)Lions - Sammie Lee Hill NT
116(+23,+48,+26,+26)Saints - Chip Vaughn SS
117(-18,+7,-38,+39)Bucs - Kyle Moore DE
118(-44,-139*,-111,-139*)Saints - Stanley Arnoux ILB
119(+40,+63,+80,+57)Bears - D.J. Moore CB
120(-23,-9,+21,-27)Cowboys - Brandon Williams DE
121(+66,+48,-49,+39)Bills - Shawn Nelson TE
122(-54,+3,-37,-76)Texans - Anthony Hill TE
123(-134*,-134,-134,-134)Pats - Rich Ohrnberger OG
124(+43,+41,+67,+33)Raiders - Louis Murphy WR
125(+67,+74,+63,+73)Falcons - Lawrence Sidbury DE
126(-130*,-130,-130,-130)Raiders - Slade Norris LB
127(-24,+9,+35,+6)Colts - Austin Collie WR
128(-1,-24,-86,-101)Panthers - Tony Fiammetta FB
129(+77,+71,+55,+53)Giants - Andre Brown RB
130(+11,+33,+36,+5)Titans - Gerald McRath OLB
131(+7,+18,-60,-43)Cards - Greg Toler CB
132(-125*,-125,-125,-125)Broncos - Seth Olsen OG
133(-40,-36,+6,+31)Chargers - Tyronne Green NT
134(-123*,-123,-123,-123)Chargers - Gartrell Johnson RB
135(+32,+27,+38,-122*)Titans - Troy Kropog OT
136(-60,-65,+14,-40)Colts - Terrance Taylor DT
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
137(-83,+11,+29,+31)Ravens - Jason Phillips ILB
138(-119*,-119,-119,-119)Falcons - William Middleton CB
139(-118*,-118,-118,-118)Chiefs - Colin Brown OT
140(+9,-11,-75,-4)Bears - Johnny Knox WR
141(+7,-1,-116*,+2)Broncos - Kenny McKinley WR
142(-74,-42,-86,+9)Bengals - Kevin Huber P
143(+6,+38,-90,+27)Cowboys - DeAngelo Smith CB
144(+24,+29,+27,+52)Jags - Jarrett Dillard WR
145(-1,-33,-50,-112*)Packers - Quinn Johnson FB
146(+36,-14,+45,+9)49ers - Scott McKillop ILB
147(-99,-28,-25,+35)Bills - Nic Harris SS
148(+20,-15,-64,+5)Chargers - Brandon Hughes CB
149(-34,-108*,-57,-108)Ravens - Davon Drew TE
150(+50,+56,-56,+16)Vikes - Jasper Brinkley ILB
151(+46,+61,-9,+36)Giants - Rhett Bowmar QB
152(+93,+91,+46,+94)Texans - James Casey TE
153(+69,+64,+24,+21)Eagles - Cornelius Ingram TE
154(+60,+87,+79,+89)Bears - Marcus Freeman ILB
155(+15,+12,+11,-87)Bucs - Xavier Fulton OT
156(-72,-84,-101*,-101)Falcons - Garrett Reynolds OT
157(+59,-1,+98,+61)Eagles - Victor Harris CB
158(-99*,-99,-99,-99)Redskins - Cody Glen RB
159(+48,+31,+90,+76)Eagles - Fenuki Tupou OT
160(-71,-7,-78,-97*)Rams - Brooks Foster WR
161(-96*,-96,-96,-96)Dolphins - John Nalbone TE
162(+119,+118,+89,+125)Packers - Jamon Meredith OT
163(+107,+106,+99,+99)Panthers - Duke Robinson OG
164(-58,-71,-93*,-93)Eagles - Thomas Morstead P
165(+82,+74,+94,+52)Dolphins - Chris Clemons FS
166(+53,+57,+53,+59)Cowboys - Michael Hamlin FS
167(-90*,+80,+74,-90)Cards - Herman Johnson OG
168(-32,-76,-6,-89*)Steelers - Joe Burnett CB
169(-52,-88*,-36,-88)Steelers - Frank Summers RB
170(-87*,-87,-87,-87)Pats - George Bussey TE
171(-86*,+15,-2,-8)49ers - Nate Davis QB
172(-60,+38,-26,-85*)Cowboys - David Buehler K
173(+104,+59,+69,+63)Titans - Javon Ringer RB
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
174(+21,-25,-39,-22)Broncos - Tom Brandstater QB
175(-52,-75,-82*,-82)Chiefs - Quinten Lawrence WR
176(-81*,-81,-81,-81)Falcons - Spencer Adkins LB
177(+19,-6,-80*,-80)Browns - Don Carey CB
178(-79*,-79,-23,-6)Seahawks - Mike Teel QB
179(+1,-45,+23,-28)Bengals - Trent Morgan CB
180(-22,-77*,-77,-77)Jags - Zach Miller TE
181(+21,+40,-22,-16)Dolphins - Andrew Gardner OT
182(-75*,-75,-75,-75)Packers - Jarius Wynn DE
183(-74*,+6,-74,+31)Bills - Cary Harris CB
184(-60,-36,-73*,-34)49ers - Bear Pascoe TE
185(+60,+84,+100,+36)Ravens - Cedric Peerman RB
186(-71*,-71,-71,-71)Redskins - Robert Henson LB
187(+55,+8,-34,+30)Packers - Brandon Underwood CB
188(+29,-15,-28,-69*)Texans - Brice McCain DB
189(-68*,+42,-46,+39)Chargers - Kevin Ellison S
190(-51,-67*,-62,-16)Bears - Al Afalava FS
191(+79,+69,+49,+73)Browns - Coye Francies CB
192(+15,-27,-32,-39)Lions - Aaron Brown RB
193(-64*,-64,-64,-64)Jets - Matt Slauson OG
194(+15,+18,+70,+74)Eagles - Brandon Gibson WR
195(+24,+27,+55,+9)Browns - James Davis RB
196(-61*,-61,-61,-61)Rams - Keith Null QB
197(-51,-34,-57,-60*)Cowboys - Stephen Hodge SS
198(-57,-24,-59*,-59)Pats - Jake Ingram LS
199(-43,-53,+47,-58*)Raiders - Stryker Sulak DE
200(-57*,-57,-57,-57)Giants - DeAndre Wright DB
201(-14,-33,-56*,-37)Colts - Curtis Painter QB
202(-55*,-55,-55,-55)Raiders - Brandon Myers TE
203(-53,-54*,-16,-54*)Titans - Jason McCourty CB
204(-53*,-53,-53,-33)Cards - Will Davis DE
205(-52*,-33,-3,-10)Steelers - Ra'Shon Harris DT
206(+52,+6,-36,-9)Titans - Dominique Edison WR
207(-50*,-50,+15,-50)Pats - Myron Pryor DT
208(-44,+14,-3,-18)Cowboys - John Phillips TE
209(+34,-48*,-48,-48)Bengals - Scott Bernard RB
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
210(+20,+48,+69,+80)Falcons - Vance Walker DT
211(-46*,-46,-46,-34)Rams - Chris Ogbonnaya RB
212(+2,+30,+100,-45*)Chiefs - Javarris Williams RB
213(-44*,-44,-44,-44)Eagles - Paul Fanaika OG
214(-43*,-43,-43,-43)Dolphins - J.D. Folsom LB
215(-42*,-42,-42,-42)Bengals - Fui Vakapuna RB
216(-41*,-25,+115,3)Panthers - Captain Munnerlyn CB
217(-40*,-40,-40,-40)Bucs - E.J. Biggers DB
218(-39*,-39,-39,-39)Packers - Brad Jones LB
219(-38*,+9,-34,-38)49ers - Curtis Taylor FS
220(-37*,-37,-37,-37)Bills - Ellis Lankster DB
221(-36*,-36,-36,-36)Redskins - Eddie Williams TE
222(-35*,-35,-35,-35)Colts - Pat McAfee K
223(-34*,-34,+40,-34)Texans - Troy Nolan S
224(-33*,-6,-33,-33)Chargers - Demetrius Byrd WR
225(+45,+8,-32*,-32)Broncos - Blake Schlueter C
226(+62,+94,+108,+107)Steelers - A.Q. Shipley C
227(+155,+157,+136,+178)Cowboys - Mike Mickens CB
228(+92,+36,+5,+34)Lions - Lydon Murtha OT
229(-28*,-28,-28,-28)Cowboys - Manuel Johnson WR
230(-27*,-27,-27,-27)Eagles - Moise Fokou OLB
231(+68,+18,+50,-26*)Vikes - Jamarca Sanford FS
232(-15,-25*,-25,-25)Pats - Julian Edelman WR
233(+19,-24*,-1,-2)Bucs - Sammie Stroughter WR
234(-23*,-23,+71,-23)Pats - Darryl Richard DT
235(+74,+74,+119,+109)Lions - Zack Follett OLB
236(+10,+83,+4,+128)Colts - Jaimie Thomas OT/OG
237(-20*,-20,-20,-20)Chiefs - Jake O'Connell TE
238(-19*,-19,-19,-19)Giants - Stoney Woodson DB
239(-18*,-18,-18,-18)Titans - Ryan Durand OG
240(-17*,-17,-17,-17)Cards - LaRod Stephens-Howling RB
241(-16*,-16,-16,-16)Steelers - David Johnson TE
242(-15*,-15,-15,-15)Titans - Nick Schommer DB
243(-14*,-14,-14,-14)Redskins - Marko Mitchell WR
244(+40,+117,+109,+163)49ers - Ricky Jean-Francois NT
245(+112,+107,+57,-12*)Seahawks - Courtney Greene SS
246(-3,+13,-11*,-11)Bears - Lance Louis OG
247(+42,+36,-10*,+124)Seahawks - Nick Reed DE
248(+80,+89,-9*,+14)Seahawks - Cameron Morrah TE
249(+107,+78,+113,-8*)Bengals - Clinton McDonald DE
250(+193,+169,+147,+128)Jags - Rashad Jennings RB
251(-6*,-6,-6,-6)Bears - Derek Kinder WR
252(-5*,-5,-5,-5)Bengals - Freddie Brown WR
253(+61,+10,-4*,+96)Jags - Tiquan Underwood WR
254(+136,+124,+154,+143)Cards - Trevor Canfield OG
255(+64,+66,-2*,+114)Lions - Dan Gronkowski TE
256(-1*,-1,-1,-1)Chiefs - Ryan Succop K

A look at the new 49ers and how they fit.

MontanaPass — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 18:15:24 -0000

WR Michael Crabtree: he certainly won't hurt a receiving corps whose best player is near-retiree Issac Bruce. Let's hope he's a YAC-man and can get his yards with his feet as well as his hands, because S. Hill isn't going to tossing many downfield bombs any time soon. He can make the passing game respectable, but it won't be great until the team has a great franchise QB.

RB Glen Coffee: I'm hoping the coaches know more about how he will play in the pros than we fans do because they passed on some major talent like Andre Brown, Rashad Jennings, and Shonn Greene when they selected him. Coaches always think they can make great players out of ordinary ones - call me skeptical-but-hopeful on this pick.

ILB Scott McKillop: I actually like this pick a lot, even more than Antonio Appleby, who was ranked just below McKillop by NFLDraftScout. He's obviously T. Spikes' replacement at the TED spot and looks like just what's needed - a tough run stopper who can take on and shed OL to get to the runner or penetrate the backfield when called for. He doesn't have the lateral mobility of a Willis, though, so he's not going to be an asset in pass coverage.

QB Nate Davis: Sorry, but this is a loser pick and demonstrates once and for all who Alex Smith's original and continuing patron is - Scott McCloughan. Davis is just a cheaper version of Alex Smith with the same strengths and weakneses - great arm, poor decision making, etc. McCloughan doesn't understand QB intangibles and should be kept away from all QBs in the draft. But at least it's a cheap mistake this time and not a $25mil disaster. But the team still doesn't have a QBOF, and needs one. Hopefully they can sign a guy like Mike Reilly as an UDFA.

TE Bear Pascoe: What's not to like? My guess is he'll be a fan favorite for quite a few years, but he brings some game, too. A former QB, he has good hands and body control, but is not quick or explosive as a receiver. He's the blocking TE who can either man the other side in 2-TE formations or replace VD as a blocker when he's split out, which I hope will be much more often under Raye's offense.

S/FS Curtis Taylor: Looks like a backup SS to me, but he brings a physicality and aggressiveness that I like to see. He's fine for a 7th rounder, but only time and training camp will see if he's a keeper.

NT Ricky Jean-Francois: At last, a decent NT prospect! Even if he is a project, it appears as if he's got the tools for the job - good short-area quickness, long arms and big hands, and a naturally overpowering strength. With some weight room work and coaching up, he could be a good, but not great, NT. The big questions with Ricky are his motor, desire, and maturity, so it'll be interesting to see how he reacts to NFL coaching. For a 7th round compensatory pick, he's a value. I would have much preferred Vaughn Martin with an earlier pick, though - the Pats got him in the 4th, iirc.

RB Kory Sheets: An UDFA, Sheets was ranked close to Coffee by NFLDraftScout and was predicted to go in the 4-5th round. He's much quicker and more elusive than Coffee, who is a between-the-tackles runner, with the ability to turn a corner and run outside when asked to. He has proven receiving ability, but has a tendency to give up the rock because of some poor mechanics. I give him an even shot to make the team over Coffee. We'll see in the preseason games.

DE Pannel Egboh: Another UDFA, he was a slow-footed DE pass rusher in college but will add 15lbs and become a backup/replacement for Ray McDonald on the weakside. McDonald is coming off foot surgery and his recovery is uncertain, iirc. If he's got the strength to 2-gap, this could turn out to be a classic steal.

RT Alex Boone: A surprise UDFA, he was a 2nd round prospect as a junior in last year's draft but elected to return to school, where he had a down year. He's huge, but is a little clumsy and has slow feet. Looks to me like the guy you put in at RT in short yardage or near the goal as a roadgrader. Don't expect him to pass protect well, though.

CB Jahi Word-Daniels: another UDFA who looks to be camp fodder at the CB position, although I don't know much about him.

THE BIG TRADE: Carolina's 1st next year for our 2nd & 4th this year. McClo traded picks worth 542 points for a pick that will be worth 590 points if the Panthers win the SuperBowl next year. So, at a minimum, there is a net gain of 58 points, which is worth a 4th round #118 pick. But if the Panthers fail to make the playoffs next year, that pick becomes a mid-round pick worth a whopping 850 points minimum, or a 308 point gain worth a 2nd round #59 pick. And if the Panthers completely flop next year and come in with the bottom 3rd of the league, that pick coul;d become worth 1200 points or more, which would be a gain of 650 points, or the equivalent of a 1st round #29 pick. Was the opportunity cost worth it? Only if the Panthers flop, imho. A gain of a 4th round pick, or even a 3rd rounder, does not make up for the opportunity cost at all, especially for a team attempting to get good before it becomes great. A profit of a late 2nd round pick is starting to get there, but not enough. So, imho, this was not a good deal unless the Panthers fall into the bottom third this season. I suspect McCloughan is attempting to make up for trading the 7th pick in the draft last year to NE in order to pick up Joe Staley. Let's hope McCloughan has the same luck Belichick did.

Other Draft Notes: Bill Belichick ate our draft. Again. Last year he took ILB Jerod Mayo using our #7 pick and this year he traded up to get the players McSing wanted in the 2nd round, making McCloughan decide to take a trade offer instead of picking a player. Belichick remains the consummate master of the draft, demonstrating that current Chiefs GM Scott Pioli was basically a functionary in NE and that Scott McCloughan is not in his league, or anywhere near it.