SB Nation User Blog: MoveThoseChains

Maybe the Jaguars aren't so bad at pass rushing

MoveThoseChains — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 19:17:27 -0000

I'm kidding, they really are, but I did see this article on the Sports Illustrated site. The full article is here, but here are a couple important quotes:

"There have been just 521 sacks in 7,630 pass attempts so far this year, among the lowest rates of sack-success in NFL history, and a far cry from the days when the likes of Deacon Jones dominated overmatched offensive tackles and made life a living hell for quarterbacks."

"The NFL itself deserves much of the blame for emasculating defenses and rendering defensive players second-rate citizens on the field of play .... There was the "re-emphasis" of pass interference that followed the 2003 playoffs. And, just this year, there's the ridiculous "Tom Brady Rule." Between these two officiating efforts, it seems defenders can barely even touch receivers or quarterbacks without getting flagged and fined. Defensive linemen are getting a little sack-shy in the process. Like cattle surrounded by an electric fence, pass-rush specialists have realized that their game has boundaries, boundaries it didn't have in Deacon's day."

The Chiefs set a record for pass-rushing incompetence last season, and the Jaguars seem to be mounting a serious challenge for a new record. Obviously this is only a very minor part of the Jaguars' struggles with getting to the quarterback, and obviously other teams like the Giants and Colts still do just fine these days. I guess it just makes me wish I'd been alive and cognizant of the NFL during the rough and tumble good ol' days.

This topic also gives me a chance to create a poll about Derrick Harvey, since he is the face of the future on the defensive line for the Jaguars. No opinions from me here - I just want to see where everyone stands.

Poll

What is your opinion of Derrick Harvey?

Fire Ted Monachino! Harvey's progressing, and he'll be a Pro Bowler someday.

19 votes

Fire Ted Monachino! Harvey's progressing, but he'll never be a star.

53 votes

Fire Ted Monachino! Harvey's not progressing, and he's a bust.

2 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

Rebuilding The Jaguars: Jack Del Rio is our best hope.

MoveThoseChains — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 00:16:15 -0000

I like Jack Del Rio. All signs indicate that he will be given until at least the rest of this year to show some progress, and he will probably still be here next year. I think this team's problems run much deeper than a simple switch at head coach. I still think Jack can turn this team around and execute the multi-season rebuilding job that is needed.

I know that I may be quickly becoming one of the minorities who still has faith in Jack, and as such, it has become time to analyze some people who are being lauded as possible replacements for Del Rio as head coach. I've included 6 candidates with NFL head coaching experience and 4 candidates with no NFL head coaching experience, presented in alphabetical order. I did not include Tony Dungy since I believe his retirement is permanent, and I did not include people like Romeo Crennel who I believe have no real support. How much, if at all, better off could the Jaguars be at the top? Let's find out...

The Retreads

Brian Billick (80-64 in the regular season, 5-3 playoffs, last seen with the Baltimore Ravens)

Billick spent 9 seasons with the Ravens, winning Super Bowl in 2000. Despite coordinating a very successful Vikings offense in the 1990s and having a reputation as a great offensive mind, his Baltimore teams were usually incredibly strong at defense and incredibly feeble at offense. Steve McNair led an offensive revival in 2006 but aged quickly and flamed out in the playoffs. In fact, after the 2001 season, Billick went 6 more seasons without winning a single playoff game. He was fired after his team went 5-11 in 2007.

Verdict: No evidence Billick would be do any better in Jacksonville. He's lost his reputation as an offensive mind, and his finest defensive years came when none other than Jack Del Rio was coaching his linebackers.

Bill Cowher (161-99-1, 12-9, Pittsburgh Steelers)

Cowher was the symbol of stability in Pittsburgh, spending 15 seasons as the head coach of the Steelers. He won Super Bowl 2005 in his 14th year as head coach, finally shaking the stigma of being unable to win the big game. His teams won 8 division titles and went to the playoffs 10 times, but Pittsburgh also underwent some lean years with Kordell Stewart and Tommy Maddox, missing the playoffs 3 years in a row from 1998-2000. Cowher resigned after a more disappointing 2006 season, 11 months after winning the Super Bowl.

Verdict: Cowher was helped tremendously in Pittsburgh by patience from his fans and his owner. He is the poster child for why it is good to have stability at the top of an organization. I think it would be extremely hard to convince him to come to Jacksonville, but he is a great coach.

Jon Gruden (95-77, 5-4, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Now an analyst on ESPN's Monday Night Football, Gruden started 38-26 with the Oakland Raiders, leading them to the infamous Tuck Rule AFC Championship Game that they lost. Gruden was traded to the Bucs in 2002 and promptly won the Super Bowl. In the six following seasons, his teams won two more NFC South titles but not a single playoff game, and it became popular to say that he won the Super Bowl with Tony Dungy's players. He forced out John McKay as GM and garnered a reputation for being somewhat difficult to work with. After losing the final four games of the 2008 season to miss the playoffs altogether, Gruden was fired.

Verdict: Gruden's record in Tampa was only 57-55, and the boy wonder has lost much of his shine. He has a reputation as an offensive mind, but his Tampa teams didn't do much of anything. I don't believe Gruden would be an upgrade over Jack Del Rio.

Marty Schottenheimer (200-126-1, 5-13, San Diego Chargers)

The 5-13 playoff record should tell you all you need to know. No matter where he is, Marty's teams do very well in the regular season and flop in the playoffs. Martyball is ultra-conservative, relying on a powerful running game and his defense.

Verdict: Martyball wouldn't be any different from Jack Del Rio's own preferences, and it would be unrealistic to expect any better postseason performances. Not an upgrade.

Mike Shanahan (138-90, 8-5, Denver Broncos)

After a rebuilding year and losing to the Jaguars in the playoffs the following year, Shanahan's Broncos won the Super Bowl after the 1997 and 1998 seasons, riding John Elway's arm the whole way. In what is a common theme here, Shanahan's teams won only 1 playoff game in the ten seasons following Elway's retirement. He was fired after the 2008 season fell apart.

Verdict: With a Hall of Fame QB, Shanahan was successful. Without one, he was not. This can be argued either way, but I believe Shanahan in teal would look much more like the other 10 seasons than the two Super Bowl seasons.

Mike Tice (32-33, 1-1, Minnesota Vikings as head coach, Jaguars as Assistant Head Coach/Tight Ends)

After two mediocre seasons, the Vikings exploded in 2004, led by Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss. They finished 8-8 but made the playoffs, defeating the Packers before falling to the Eagles. Tice's team failed to make the playoffs in 2005 despite being a game better at 9-7. Tice also faced controversy from a Super Bowl ticket scalping operation, and the party-boat scandal also happened on his watch. He was fired after the 2005 season and subsequently joined the Jaguars.

Verdict: I see nothing that indicates that the Jaguars would be better-disciplined under Mike Tice, and it scares me that his offensive explosion year only led to an 8-8 record and a loss in the divisional round. Tice would be nothing more than an interim coach in Jacksonville.

The Newbies

Russ Grimm, currently assistant head coach and offensive line coach for the Arizona Cardinals

Grimm spent seven season with the Steelers as offensive line coach, adding assistant head coach duties in the final three years. As such, he had a huge part in keeping Pittsburgh's powerful rushing attack. He was widely considered Cowher's likely successor, but after the job went to Mike Tomlin instead, Grimm joined Ken Whisenhunt in the desert. In his first year there, the Cardinals gave up the fewest amount of sacks they'd given up since 1978. The line also allowed Edgerrin James to rush for 1222 yards, the 5th-highest total in team history. The 2009 team ranked 2nd in passing and 4th overall, though the running game crashed to dead last in the NFL.

Verdict: An intriguing possibility. You have to wonder why the Steelers chose to give the much greener Tomlin a chance, and it is odd that Grimm is 50 and still has not ever been a head coach. He is very respected though, and the Jaguars would greatly benefit from his offensive line expertise.

Kyle Shanahan, currently offensive coordinator for the Houston Texans

The son of Mike Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan is considered a rising star in coaching. He joined the Texans as WR coach in 2006, moved to QB coach in 2007, and was promoted to offensive coordinator for last season. During Kyle's time as a position coach, Andre Johnson was a beast (of course), and Matt Shaub and Sage Rosenfels compiled passer ratings in the mid 80s. The 2008 Texans offense ranked 4th in passing, 13th in rushing, and 3rd overall.

Verdict: Kyle Shanahan is only 29 years old. Lane Kiffin was over two years older when he was hired by the Raiders. He might not be ready to be an NFL head coach yet. It would take a huge leap of faith for a GM or owner to promote a candidate with such a short resume.

Charlie Strong, currently linebackers coach, defensive coordinator, and associate head coach for the Florida Gators

Strong's defenses at Florida have been....well, strong. His defense is largely responsible for winning the BCS championship game after the 2006 season. He is responsible for such college stars as Brandon Spikes, Reggie Nelson, and Derek Harvey. His units are known for being aggressive, disciplined, and apt at producing turnovers. Strong, who is black, has never been a college head coach despite experience that dates all the way back to 1991, and it is rumored that racism has played a part. He was hired as the coordinator under Ron Zook, served as the interim coach for the bowl game after Zook's dismissal, and stayed on as part of Urban Meyer's staff.

Verdict: Strong has absolutely no NFL experience, but few defensive coordinators in college football have as strong (sorry, I can't resist) a resume. He would be a gamble, and there is no precedent that I know of for hiring a college coordinator directly as an NFL head coach. Can he be successful? I don't know, but I am not sure the Jaguars in their present state couldn't afford to bring in someone that will be only then be learning the ways of the NFL.

Charlie Weis, currently head coach at Notre Dame (30-22)

Weis is arrogant; he's embattled at Notre Dame; and he's a three-time Super Bowl winning offensive coordinator with the New England Patriots. After his third championship and fourth year overall with the team, Weis left the Patriots after the 2004 season to become the head coach at Notre Dame. His team did fine at first with Brady Quinn, endured the worst record (3-9) in school history in 2007, and has received mixed reviews since.

Verdict: Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini both were also successful coordinators with the Patriots, and both have already been fired from their first head coaching jobs. Josh McDaniels - Weis's successor as OC - has already rocked the boat as the new coach of the Denver Broncos, and he was forced to trade away his franchise quarterback after clashing with him. Could Charlie Weis be the first successful fruit from the Bill Belichick tree? I doubt it.

Again, every indication from the Jaguars organization is that Jack Del Rio is not going anywhere for this year or next. He is signed through 2012. But even if he is dismissed, I am having a hard time seeing many possibilities that are better. Cowher would be the best, but I seriously doubt he'd ever come here. Most of the other choices don't particularly inspire me, especially when compared to Jack. Only time will tell what happens, but I believe GM Gene Smith will make the right decision, no matter what that decision is.

In Gene We Trust.

-Mike Nelson

Rebuilding The Jaguars: The aliens came and took everyone's brains

MoveThoseChains — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:22:58 -0000

What has happened to everyone?

In the preseason, everyone agreed that this is a rebuilding year. This is a year to evaluate talent, reinstall a physical, focused, and disciplined mindset, and to, for once, let Gene and Jack do their jobs. Just a few days after the Jaguars played better than anyone expected, suddenly everyone is head-over-heels for Tim Tebow, wants to fire Jack Del Rio, hates Derrick Harvey for not getting sacks while making a transition to a 3-4 end (whose job it is to play the run, not get sacks), and generally checked their brains at the door.

What makes Big Cat Country great is that we are supposed to understand that drafting receivers every year is not the way to go. Football starts and ends in the trenches, and without great play from the lines, the rest of the offense and defense both suffer. We are supposed to understand that it's players not plays. We are supposed to understand that no one wants to win more than the coaches, and the coaches know more about football than we ever will - or we'd be on the sidelines instead of them.

Here are some quarterback statistics:

Cmp/Att % Yrds TDs INTs Rushes Yrds TDs Avg/Rush

A 212/325 65.2 3036 26 10 155 1050 12 6.77

B 192/298 64.4 2747 30 4 176 673 12 3.82

C 214/317 67.5 2952 32 4 135 631 10 4.67

Look at A and B for a second: Both of these quarterbacks won championships, both were regarded as the uncontested leader of their team, both won big games, both are regarded highly for their running, both played in a spread, and both have a weird throwing motion that concerns NFL scouts. Player A, however, has always been considered an NFL QB prospect, while many scouts are just not sure what to think about player B.

Aside from rushing statistics saying that player B is slower, I do not understand what makes player B better than player A. The tangibles and intangibles are all the same. However, when I tell you that player A is Vince Young, and player B is Tim Tebow, suddenly everyone falls into zombie-unity, and proclaims that, "Vince Young is garbage and will never be a big-time NFL quarterback (he won't)". Followed closely by, "Tebow is Steve Young, combined with Namath and Montana, and Unitas and Superman."

It doesn't make sense.

Oh by the way, player C is Alex Smith. He had better passing and rushing statistics and was just as much of a leader at Utah as Tebow is at UF. The difference is that the Ute Nation is not everywhere.

Now here are some coaching statistics:

No, actually no there aren't. You know what, I'm tired of this. People are going to believe what they want to believe. If you think Jack Del Rio is a bad coach, then nothing I say will change your mind. If you think Jack Del Rio is doing everything he can with what he's been given and that absolutely nothing has changed since the end of last season except that the Jaguars have undeniably gotten better and look more disciplined and cohesive and better-coached, then I agree with you.

I am frustrated because I know I have to accept that this year is about progress rather than wins. I've accepted it, but it doesn't make it fun. The only thing that frustrates me more is the fanatical fire-Jack pro-Tebow zombie mob. Like John said, be careful what you wish for, because it might come true, and then this team will be in an even worse place. I don't know where that place is, but it's not Jacksonville.

-Mike Nelson

Jack Del Rio is not the problem

MoveThoseChains — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 07:14:22 -0000

Let me start out by saying that this is nothing personally against some posters here that have recently called for JDR to be fired. I am also completely ok when BigBlueShoe and those crazies over on the jaguars.com discussion boards claim JDR is the worst coach in the league.

The Jaguars right now have a lot of problems, and obviously this season was very disappointing. I'll tell you what's not a problem for the Jags - their head coach. Common complaints are that he's lost the team, the players have quit, he takes no risks, he runs too much (when the play just called wasn't a pass), he doesn't run enough (when the play just called was a pass gone awry), his team plays with no emotion, and he runs a fundamentally bad team. Let's go through this and work it out.

"The team has quit; he's lost the players; this team plays with no emotion"

As Chris has documented on a recent post, the players say otherwise, and if you're not going to believe the players, then why bother doing any research at all? Just assume everyone is out to get you and is always lying, start a conspiracy theory website, and never go outside again. MJD: "You just learn so much about the guys you play with, and I think the guys fought hard and a lot of people thought we were going to quit. We just kept fighting hard. Sometimes, the ball doesn’t bounce your way. We just have to get better and remember this and look back at it and see what we did here and know we have to fix it."

Even Mike Peterson, who knows he's not coming back to Jacksonville and can say anything he wants about his coaches with no repercussions: "The good thing about it, though, the guys in this locker room – I know you all wrote us off early with everything that had happened – but these guys never quit. You can say whatever you want to say about us, but you never saw anybody in this locker room quit. We fought until the end."

"He has no guts, he doesn't take risks, he's too conservative"

Some quick stats on going for it on 4th down for the 2007 and 2008 seasons combined:

Jaguars: 28.5 attempts/season; League average of the other 31 teams: 15.6 attempts/season

Jack is crazy. Crazy like fox. He will do whatever he wants whenever he wants, and he'll make you like it.

Look, I would love if every play was a successful deep pass, but that's just not going to happen until we have a legitimate deep threat and an uninjured offensive line that can block long enough for a deep route to develop. That's not JDR's fault. In fact, it would be terrible coaching on his part if he demanded plays that we just don't have the players for right now.

"The Jaguars suck, and it's Jack Del Rio's fault"

This is the most infuriating comment to me, because it's so general that it's actually hard to respond to.

Look, the Jaguars were not good this year. They could not rush the passer, cover the pass, block for the QB, or catch the ball. But really, they couldn't do that last year either, and everyone seemed just fine with the coaching then. The Jags were 12th in total defense last year and 17th this year. They dropped from 7th to 20th in total offense, but a patchwork line that couldn't create running room or keep David upright was a main reason for that.

Simply, it's players not plays. it always has been, and it always will be. It's always very easy to blame the coach or the quarterback, but that's usually just a way of avoiding actually analyzing what went wrong and what needs to be done to get better.

Let's all wish Gene Smith good luck and wise judgement in rebuilding for the future, and let's all be glad we have Jack Del Rio instead of Herm Edwards or Wade Phillips or anyone from the Bill Belichick coaching tree.