SB Nation User Blog: Mr. Plank

The Importance of Faceoffs

Mr. Plank — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 08:54:51 -0000

In the 2008-2009 season, 70,417 faceoffs were won in 1,230 games. That's roughly 57.25 faceoffs per game, nearly one per minute. The San Jose Sharks were second in the league in this metric behind the Detroit Red Wings, with the teams posting a 53.8% and 55.1% conversion rate respectively.

This season, the Sharks are currently tops in the league with a 56.9% conversion rate. Sjsharks.com ran a piece on Monday night that highlighted this faceoff success. Todd McLellan stated, "When you win on the penalty kill, you can erase 20-30 seconds," which makes sense intuitively-- centerman wins the draw clean, the puck goes to the defenseman, and he clears it up the boards and out of the zone. The team with the man advantage must retrieve the puck, bring it up the ice, enter the zone, and set up in the umbrella or whatever they happen to be using. If the Sharks do a good job of holding the blueline and force the opposing team to dump it in to engage in puck battles along the boards, 20-30 seconds could theoretically tick off the clock. Simple enough.

In the same piece, Scott Nichol said, "A lot of guys make a living on faceoffs." Which got me to thinking-- how much do they really matter?

Last season, the correlation of faceoff percentage and total standings points was 0.51; when compared to other statistics such as goal differential (0.95) and shot differential (0.63), it ends up low on the totem pole of things that correlate with teams winning hockey games. I came into this expecting as much-- the purpose of a hockey game is to score more goals than your opponent, and the more you do that, the more you are going to win. Same goes for shots on net-- the more opportunities you have to score goals, the greater likelihood it is that you will do so.

If this sounds like a complete fluff piece, don't jump off the train just yet. I don't really care if you do, but just don't.

Back to the original idea for this exercise-- the article on sjsharks.com. If you've read through it already, you'll remember that a fair amount of emphasis was placed on winning draws during the penalty kill. In 2008-2009, the NHL adopted a new rule which required the initial faceoff of a powerplay to take place in the offensive zone. Therefore, winning draws while shorthanded should mean that your penalty kill will have greater success. Right?

Surprisingly, that's wrong. The correlation of shorthanded faceoff percentage and penalty kill percentage is actually in the negative at -.17. Now these numbers don't confirm that the lower your faceoff percentage is the higher your PK percentage will be-- after all, correlation does not imply causation, and saying that you would be better off losing all your draws doesn't make sense at all. However, this is suggesting that, amongst the league as a whole, a good faceoff percentage does not equal a good kill over the course of a season.

To illustrate this, here's a pretty little chart to swoon your eyes at. The top seven teams in each PK category are highlighted in red, while the bottom seven are highlighted in blue.

Now there's many reasons why this is the case-- winning a PK faceoff doesn't necessarily mean your team clears the puck directly afterwards, nor does it mean that you're a world beater when it comes to getting your stick in passing lanes. Blocking shots have nothing to do with faceoffs, along with the performance of your goaltender. The list goes on and on. The biggest factor though may be that faceoff percentages don't have all that big of a range. The average success rate last season was around 45.7%. Over the course of 100 trips to the dot, that comes out to roughly 8 extra faceoffs lost, or in other words, two in 25 extra faceoffs. Not exactly a damning setback at the end of the day.

The funny thing about it is, a small sample can really skew things to shit, and that should be considered as we make our way towards the thing that happens in mid-April (not saying that word just yet). Over the course of the season goals and faceoff wins tend to balance out, but in a compressed set of highly intensified games (really trying not to say that word just yet) winning faceoffs can make an impact. And a rather big one at that.

Just don't give all the credit for San Jose's fourth ranked penalty kill to the guys in the dot this season. Even if they're making their living off it.

Go Sharks.

Gameday Open Thread: Whipping Boy of Postseason's Past @ Sharks

Mr. Plank — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 03:17:04 -0000

Next Game

Nashville Predators
@ San Jose Sharks

Tuesday, Nov 10, 2009, 7:30 PM PST
HP Pavilion

Sharks Gameday: Purrr...edators

posted by Mr. Plank about 13 hours ago

166 comments | 0 recs

Off the Post - November 9th

posted by Conico do Mayo Miracle 1 day ago

42 comments | 0 recs

Complete Coverage >

This is your official gameday thread. Get it done.

Go Sharks.

Sharks Gameday: Purrr...edators

Mr. Plank — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 11:38:42 -0000

	@ 7:30 PM PST
7-7-1, 15 points		12-4-2, 26 points
12th in Western Conference		1st in Western Conference

Television	NHLN-CA, CSN-CA+
Radio	98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com
Antagonists	On The Forecheck

The Sharks and I have this dynamic-- when they're playing great hockey like they are right now, I'm happy as hell but have shit to write about. It's much easier as a self-loathing blogger to point to something and say, "That's what you're doing wrong and here's my idea on how to improve" compared to, "Hey that was a sweet goal there Marleau, maybe we can get a cup of coffee some time and watch The English Patient together in our jammies." It's always easier to get pissed off and moan and complain when shit hits the fan*, but on the same token, it's never a fun way to spend an evening. This is probably why a career as a male cheerleader never really appealed to me, even with the promise of pillow fights and glowing adoration from all my peers-- I would have gotten bored with the cushiness of it all. A career as Dennis Rodman's public relations manager? Now that's something I could get into.

*I understand what the term means, but honestly, has actual shit ever hit an actual fan in the history of the universe? It's not like monkeys can pick one up on the cheap at Ikea. Then again, some people like to pee on each other. Maybe someone somewhere has thrown shit at a fan. People are strange.

At any rate, right now the Sharks are rolling like it's '08. 6-0-1 in their last seven, with the majority of these wins recorded without the services of Pavelski or Setoguchi (both will play tonight). Nabokov has been stellar in bailing the team out when they need him to, a 17 game performance that has placed him 5th in GAA and T-6th in SV% league-wide. Patrick Marleau and Dany Heatley are on pace for fifty goals. Joe Thornton has done his share of easing the PK burden. Kent Huskins and Jason Demers have been a pleasant surprise. Hell, even the secondary scoring has managed to kick in a few teeth since the last time we talked, in what seems to be vast improvement in an area that San Jose needed to address from last season.

Goals Scored By Forwards

	GP	Goals	EV G/GP	TOT G/GP	Goal %	KIAFT?
2008-2009
Top Six	77.83	164	1.26	2.11	79.6%	Yes.
Secondary	84.66	46	0.41	0.54	20.4%	Meh.
2009-2010
Top Six	14.33	35	1.26	2.44	76.5%	Yes.
Secondary	21.33	16	0.70	0.75	23.5%	Yup.

EV G/GP: Even strength goals per games played TOT G/GP: Total goals per games played GOAL %: Percentage of total goals per game played KIAFT?: Kicking In A Few Teeth?

It will be interesting to see if this production holds as we move forward-- although goals per games played manages to nullify the increase in games secondary scorers have played this season, when someone like Pavelski goes down a "secondary scorer" gets bumped up into a much more favorable goal-scoring situation. Ryan Vesce's a perfect example of that-- all three of his goals have come when playing with either Thornton (2) or Marleau (1), even though he's not a top six guy when the team is healthy. It's doubtful that he will be able to continue this rate of production with Shelley and Nichol City on the fourth line.

So what does this all mean? Just that there's a small disclaimer to what may seem like overwhelmingly positive numbers on the Sharks stats page. This isn't to say I've been disappointed with the lower lines-- au contraire mon ami. You have guys flourishing in their roles whether it be playing the kill, throwing the body around on the forecheck, cycling the puck down low, winning faceoffs... the list goes on and on. Toss in the occasional puck in the net and you have me sold.

It almost makes the loss of notorious bloodhound Marcel Goc bearable. Almost.

As many of you know, I'm a huge McGinn fan. If he sticks around until the end of December I'll probably buy a jersey and wear it out on dates. Once Malhotra leaves next season because we won't be able to afford him (which is going to suck), Couture will slide into that third line center role and TCY and I will probably have to shut down the blog for a few days to sufficiently celebrate. I'm not saying that the divide between Worcester and San Jose is akin to the Berlin Wall, but it's pretty damn close. Once that is torn down for good the Sharks will probably never lose a hockey game again.

Anyways, I'm really excited that McLellan decided to keep him up with the team this shuttle around-- with how things were handled earlier this season, I'm guessing he probably just hid under the bed in his hotel room and didn't answer the phone. That's another reason I like him-- dude will do anything he can to stay on the big club, even if it means having to skip a meal or two and play tic tac toe against himself with discarded candy wrappers.

*****

Nashville is pretty hot right now, winning four out of their last five. Obviously Marcel Goc will play his first game against San Jose, with Scott Nichol and Jed Ortmeyer playing against their former team as well. David Pollak had a really good piece on Ortmeyer in the print edition this morning, covering his continuous bout with a blood-clotting disorder. Be sure to check it out.

The Predators just got Jordin Tootoo and Jason Arnott back from injury a couple games ago, but leading point scorers J.P. Dumont (11) and Shea Weber (9) both didn't play against Los Angeles. Weber is questionable for tonight, and Dumont will be out according to the Nashville Tennessean. How do you feel about facing San Jose with a depleted lineup Coach Trotz?

Well alright then.

Prediction: Sharks win 5-2. Goals by McGinn, Nichol, Ortmeyer, Heatley, and Marleau. Little known fact-- Barry Trotz's life story was adopted and rewritten as the smash hit fairy tale Three Billy Goat's Gruff.

Go Sharks.

Just sayin'.

Mr. Plank — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 02:05:26 -0000

Just sayin'.

Blake Out for a "couple of weeks", Couture and Ferriero sent to Worcester

Mr. Plank — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 17:29:10 -0000

Blake Out for a "couple of weeks", Couture and Ferriero sent to Worcester

Nothing specific on the injury (the usual "upper body" business), but Blake does have his left arm in a sling and mentioned having shoulder surgery before. I'm sure if he needed to go under the knife he would have already, so there's no need to worry about this ending up there.

[UPDATE] An email from AHL broadcaster Eric Lindquist tipped us off on this one, and expect to see it on WTC (it's there now) as the day progresses. Both Couture and Ferriero were sent to Worcester, so it leads us to believe that one of Mitchell, Vesce (H/T cerise) or Setoguchi is ready to return to action. On a side note, it seems that McGinn has impressed more than just Plank and I in his recent NHL stint, as he'll be staying up while Ferriero is sent to the AHL for the first time this year.

Gameday Open Thread: Pens @ Sharks

Mr. Plank — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:27:16 -0000

Next Game

Pittsburgh Penguins
@ San Jose Sharks

Saturday, Nov 7, 2009, 7:30 PM PST
HP Pavilion

Sharks Gameday: Put on Your Pants, It's The World Champs

posted by Mr. Plank about 12 hours ago

65 comments | 0 recs

Complete Coverage >

This is your official gameday thread. Get it done.

Go Sharks.

Sharks Gameday: Put on Your Pants, It's The World Champs

Mr. Plank — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 04:12:18 -0000

	@ 7:30 PM PST
12-4-0, 24 points		11-4-2, 24 points
1st in Eastern Conference		2nd in Western Conference

Television	CSN-BA
Radio	98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com
Antagonists	PensburghThe Pensblog

Anytime the defending champs roll into town you gotta take notice. Enter it on the ol' palm pilot and settle in.

Then the day comes and you realize both squads are hurting more than John Goodman at an all you can eat buffet. Setoguchi, Pavelski, Blake, Malkin, Gonchar. Some big-time cogs in the lineup right there. Chances are your mother will call you on the phone and say she heard it's a statement game for the team, or something of that sort. Remind you not to miss church in the morning and chastise you for leaving the seat up.

But at the end of the day, what we've got here is two points on the table against an Eastern Conference team we play once a season. Doesn't mean it's not a big game, doesn't mean we shouldn't get a little chubs when 6:30 rolls around. It just means that two points are the only thing that matters tonight. If the Sharks win, don't make out with your sister. If the Sharks lose, don't jump off the Golden Gate. We're in for a long road if we start flying off the handle 17 games in. The performance on Thursday was the best they've looked in Joe Louis for years, and if not for a pocketed whistle we're sitting with an extra point in the bag. No excuses, but that's a fact. Mark it down as such and move on.

On a relevant side note, how bad does Thomas Greiss feel right now? He puts up a 37 save performance in Philadelphia and hasn't seen the light of day since. With Nabokov playing two back to backs that went to the skills competition and then traveling halfway across the country, does anyone else think it would be a good idea to give him the keys to the car tonight? I understand that a Saturday night home game against the defending champions is probably a good way to destroy his career if he lets in a few softies (hell, I remember sitting at the Vancouver preseason game and people were booing him), but McLellan had to have seen this as a possible outcome. I'm sure the team didn't even come close to touching the ice yesterday and probably just watched some video, but damn-- one start for the backup in seventeen games during an Olympic year when Nabokov is one of the favorites (if not the favorite) to start for Team Russia? Questionable.

Chris Kunitz waddles his way back to The Tank tonight. Does anyone remember that time he went Chuck Norris on Cheech's head two years ago in the waning seconds of the third period when the Sharks had the game in the bag? Pretty sure the Ducks hadn't even registered a shot in the third at that point. At any rate, there's one guy who should get a nice chorus of boos tonight.

Prediction: Sharks win 3-1. Goals by Boyle, Heatley, and Marleau.

Go Sharks.

Gameday Open Thread: Sharks @ Wings

Mr. Plank — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 22:53:12 -0000

Next Game

San Jose Sharks
@ Detroit Red Wings

Thursday, Nov 5, 2009, 4:30 PM PST
Joe Louis Arena

Blake placed on IR, Joslin called up from Worcester

posted by Mr. Plank about 3 hours ago

0 comments | 0 recs

Sharks Gameday: Motoring Into The Motor City

posted by Mr. Plank about 12 hours ago

131 comments | 0 recs

Complete Coverage >

This is your official gameday thread. Get it done.

Go Sharks.

Blake placed on IR, Joslin called up from Worcester

Mr. Plank — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 20:24:42 -0000

Blake placed on IR, Joslin called up from Worcester

No word on the length of the injury.

Discuss here in the game thread.

[Update]: More of the same from David Pollak of Working The Corners. H/T to Section223 for the heads up.

[Update]: Courtesy of a press release from Eric Lindquist of the Worcester Sharks.

Joslin, 22, is tied for second in scoring among Worcester defensemen with five points (0-5=5) in ten games, along with six penalty minutes.

He appeared in two games with San Jose this season, posting two penalty minutes and a +2 rating.

The six-foot-one, 210-pound native of Richmond, Ontario was originally selected by San Jose in the fifth round (149th overall) of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.

[Update]: Dave Pollak back with more, and it looks like Callahan is up as well. Do they roll with seven D tonight and bench Staubitz? McLellan was evasive.

Sharks Gameday: Motoring Into The Motor City

Mr. Plank — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:31:03 -0000

	@ 4:30 PM PST
11-4-1, 23 points		6-4-3, 15 points
2nd in Western Conference		10th in Western Conference

Television	CSN-BA
Radio	98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com
Antagonists	Abel To We Forgot ZetterbergWinging It In Motown

Say all you want about Detroit's struggles thus far this season. Go on, go ahead and say it. The almighty Red Wings are no more. Pavel Datsyuk is "past his prime", Todd Bertuzzi's black mark has replaced the curse of Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen will never fully recover from a torn ACL, Chris Osgood is loading up on quarters to hit Bingo Halls across the country, and Nik Lidstrom is dragging Brian Rafalski to the Panhandle on off days to check out future living accomodations.

Go on, go ahead and say it. Just make sure you whisper it under your breath while mentioning about seventeen caveats along the way.

Detroit is Detroit. No matter what the standings say. No matter who's injured, who's underperforming, who's in Babcock's dog house. Hell, no matter who's on the goddamn roster, Detroit is Detroit and there's not a reason in the world to say that tonight is just another four o'clock start on the 82 game docket.

With a six game win streak it's easy to sit back on your couch, soda pop in hand, and say it doesn't really matter. Because honestly, in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't. Two points in The Joe won't make or break the Sharks season. It's the culmination of a mini road trip, the tail end of a back to back-- not exactly a throwaway, but with all things considered, not an essential game on the Western Conference scorecard. Bodies are banged up, legs are a little gassed. A home cooked meal awaits, and dammit Rosalie, I can almost taste it.

Fact of the matter is, tonight means more than that. The demons weaving amongst the rafters above. The cold, unforgiving sheet of ice below. The Red Army lining up eye to eye, wooden bayonets poised at the ready. Many have fallen here, torn limb from limb under the piercing lights and casually thrown aside like all the others before them. And if history repeats itself? If history has provided a one-way compass to navigate this treacherous terrain tonight?

Then history has damned our very souls.

San Jose @ Detroit (Post-Lockout)

Year	GF/G	GA/G	SF/G	SA/G	PP/G	PK/G	Result
2008-2009
2/25/09	1	4	35	33	1/7	5/7	L 4-1
12/18/08	0	6	24	28	0/2	3/3	L 6-0
2007-2008
2/29/08	3	2	22	22	1/3	2/4	W 3-2
10/27/07	1	5	11	39	1/2	6/6	L 5-1
2006-2007
12/2/09	3	2	35	19	1/5	2/3	W 3-2
10/25/06	1	2	23	39	1/4	1/2	L 2-1
2005-2006
3/23/06	0	4	28	30	0/5	2/3	L 4-0
10/17/05	2	3	28	34	1/8	4/6	OTL 3-2
	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
TOTAL	1.37 (11)	3.5 (28)	25.75	30.5	16.6%	73.5%	2-5-1

Consume at your own discretion

Detroit is coming off a 2-0 shutout of the struggling Boston Bruins, their second win in a row. Mike Babcock has been letting some barbs at his players rip through the media in the past week, and it's safe to say that this won't be an ordinary game in the locker room of Detroit-- I wouldn't go as far as stating that they have something to prove considering their ~~recent~~ history, but it's definitely going to be a statement game to remind San Jose that The Joe is as unhospitable as ever. They've posted a noteworthy 4-1-1 record at home thus far, and a win tonight would put them in a tie for the Central Division lead.

Fasten your seatbelts....

for the real show tonight-- another Captaincy controversy! Rob Blake will likely be on the shelf with an always invigorating "upper body injury", and concurrently, someone will have a spiffy new letter on their jersey. Safe money says the C goes to Boyle, with Thornton and...uh oh. Could it be? Might it be? What a difficult decision to make, a conundrum of the highest order.

Difficult? It's easier than bulls-eying womp rats in Beggar's Canyon.

Prediction: Sharks win 1-0. The lone goal comes from Marleau, who sends a proton torpedo past Osgood in the waning seconds of the third. Message boards across the galaxy describe it as one in a million, and Ryan Vesce dances in his injury rehabilitation facility on Endor.

Go Sharks.

SB Nation User Blog: Mr. Plank

The Importance of Faceoffs

Gameday Open Thread: Whipping Boy of Postseason's Past @ Sharks

Next Game

Sharks Gameday: Purrr...edators

@

Television

NHLN-CA, CSN-CA+

Radio

98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com

Antagonists

Goals Scored By Forwards

Just sayin'.

Blake Out for a "couple of weeks", Couture and Ferriero sent to Worcester

Gameday Open Thread: Pens @ Sharks

Next Game

Sharks Gameday: Put on Your Pants, It's The World Champs

@

Television

CSN-BA

Radio

98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com

Antagonists

Gameday Open Thread: Sharks @ Wings

Next Game

Blake placed on IR, Joslin called up from Worcester

Sharks Gameday: Motoring Into The Motor City

@

Television

CSN-BA

Radio

98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com

Antagonists

San Jose @ Detroit (Post-Lockout)