Every team makes its own destiny and there are so many factors to consider that its pretty tough if not impossible to make a comparison of team's schedules. But before things get rolling next week I thought I'd waste a bit of my time looking at which team's the Twins and White Sox will play more relative to each other.

I didn't consider the Tigers because frankly they finished 13 games back last year and - in my mind - they would've had to sign another stud (Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee, or Adrian Beltre) in order to be right around the same level as the Twins and Sox. I still think they're a completely plausible if slightly darkhorse contender though - especially considering the turn-over and youth in their rotation.

Anyway back on point.. after tabulatin' the schedules the following are the only differences in games played against specific teams. (Note: You can mix and match which games to match against which but I think you'll agree the result is the same) 

TWINS                                                          WHITE SOX

 - (1) more game against Red Sox              (1) more game against Mariners

- (6) more games v. Brewers                        (6) more games v. Cubs

-  (3) more games v. Giants                          (3) more games v. Rockies  

- (2) more games v. Rays                            (2) more games v Athletics

- (3) more games v. Padres                         (3) more games v. Nationals

- (1) more game v. Angels                            (1) more game v. Blue Jays

More than anything its the difference between the "all-in" 2011 Brewers and the Cubs continued futility thats gonna hurt. Obviously the Red Sox are going to be much stiffer competition than the Mariners but that 's just (1) game. I think most people would agree that the Giants and the Rays will be better than Rockies and the Athletics this year too but I don't think those teams are terribly far apart. Finally differences in the last (4) games on the list seem negligible.. if there's an advantage in playing the Pad's v.  Nationals or Angels v. Blue Jays I don't see it. 

So on the whole it looks like our squad drew the short stick this time. Ultimately  I see (7) games where the Sox have a much easier opponent and (5) games where they have a slightly easier opponent. The result of which is maybe something like spotting the Sox 2-3 games in the standings? 

That's a big difference in the Central but for what its worth the Twins finished with a 6 game lead over the Sox last year.  

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2010 schedule differences (inspired by cmathewson)

                       TWINS                                                     WHITE SOX

- (6) more games v. Brewers                        (6) more games v. Cubs

-  (3) more games v. Rockies                        (3) more games v. Marlins  

- (3) more games v. Phillies                           (3) more games v Pirates

- (3) more games v. Mets                               (3) more games v. Nationals

- (1) more game v. Blue Jays                         (2) more games v. Angels

- (1) more game v. Rangers                           (2) more games v Red Sox

- (1) more game v. Rays

- (1) more game v. Orioles

I don't know if there was much of a significant difference between the Cubs and Brewers last year. I'd also say (4) games v. Jays, Rangers, Rays, and O's is pretty equivalent to (4) v. Red Sox and Angels.

So really the difference was the interleague schedule as cmathewson noted.  The Twins won (5) of the (9) games v. Rockies, Phillies, Mets while the Sox won (8) of their (9) games against Marlins, Pirates, Nationals.

It looks roughly like the Sox had about the same schedule advantage last year as they'll get this year (about 2-3 games worth) which could easily be erased by any number of circumstances. 

Kelsie Smith at the Press wrote one of the better spring training articles today on a topic that many of us are all too aware of already, Delmon and his defensive inabilities.

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_17614424?nclick_check=1

Maybe the best part is reading the quotes from the coaches as they ever-so diplomatically try to honestly deal with Kelsie's needling and avoid throwing Delmon under the bus at the same time. Best quote Kelsie got has to be Jerry White:

"He's just a big guy," White said, "that moves well for his size in left field."

...which to someone that watches too much TV (like me) reminds of an episode of The Office where Kevin Malone is in charge of answering the phones. On which Jim Halpert opines  "I think Kevin is doing exactly as well as anyone might have expected someone like him to do in a position like that."


----------------------------------- Warning - rest of post is really long ----------------------------------------


In any case the article also reminds of the trade. You know which one.. the one our portly, crew-cutted, French-majoring GM cut his teeth on. The one that induces hateful shuddering when the names Bartlett or Garza are heard).

At this point, to the surprise of no one (except perhaps french-majoring GMs) the trade has worked lopsidedly in favor of the Rays. Since the swap Bartlett and Garza have put up 15.3 WAR against Delmon and Harris' 0.6 WAR. Things are muddled up now that all but Delmon have been flipped for prospects but I still think its fair to compare the players' outputs for the rest of the seasons they would have been under their respective team's control (ie. remaining arbitration years). Garza would have had (3) left and Bartlett would have had (1) while Delmon has (2) remaining to make up the deficit by himself since Harris is a long-shot do much of anything in pro ball again.

Well lets do Billy Smith a favor and say that Bartlett and Garza's combined efforts somehow amount to 0 WAR and the deficit remains static.. Garza's arm falls off midseason and Bartlett puts up a negative WAR year for example - something like that. Even in that best case scenario Delmon would still have to put up two 7 to 8 WAR seasons (also known as Mauer circa 2009 or  Albert Pujols circa.. any given year).

That's just not going to happen. Even if Delmon could hit at that level his defense will always drag him down. And if Garza and Bartlett do add to their totals... well Delmon would have to challenge the inhuman heights that a suspect macrocephalic outfielder for the Giants once reached about a decade ago. (Not talking about Jeff Kent but the description still kinda fits).

So its fair to say that if you have any faith in WAR the trade is lost. But that shouldn't be held against Delmon of course. He's shown significant improvement in the last year and a half - to the point where I think the comparisons that some drew (don't remember who) to Albert Belle don't seem out of the question (to me anyway).

Besides obviously sharing the same skin color there are several meaningful similarities.

1.) Delmon is about the same height, weight, and build as Albert was.

2.) Albert's poor -though-not-quite-as-bad-as-Delmon defense was also primarily exposed in left field.

3.) We all remember Albert's terrific physical strength and even the biggest Delmon-haters have to admit he's a brick #*^%house.

4.) Both players were/are known to throw a tantrum or two.

5.) Most importantly I also remember Albert as a free-swinger and this is supported by K-rates hovering around 20% until 1993 (his age 26/27 season) from which point on he struck out around 15% of the time. Delmon has been over or near a 20% K-rate every year until last (his age 24/25 season) when he only struck out 14.2% of the time.

Otherwise, Albert only had a walk rate of around 5% until 1992 when started getting walked in around 10% of his PAs in any given year.  I would *guess* that Belle's improvement in walk-rate was due mostly to getting a lot more not-so unintentional walks as he and the powerhouse Indian offense of the 90's took off. For his part, Delmon hasn't put up a walk rate over 6% yet and its unlikely that he could change his hitting approach at this point even if he wanted to. But if he's able to improve significantly on last year's gains (a big drop in K's is a big drop in K's.. an improvement in anyone's book) AND the team starts putting up runs at something close to the rate that those Cleveland teams did - then  *it seems plausible to me* that a big-time improvement in OBP would be forced on DY by pitchers preferring to face Valencia/Casilla/Span/Nishi.

Anyway - that's where my "hope springs eternal" mid-March brain is at when reading about and watching Delmon Young.

Who knows? Maybe Delmon will put up something like a mid 90's Albert Belle year and Mr. French Major can redeem himself by flipping him in the offseason for something the club really needs.. like a strikeout pitcher or a shortstop... something like a Matt Garza or a Jason Bartlett circa 2009.

(shudder)  

Step #1: Sign Vlad Guerrero to a deal around 20MM over 3 years or maybe 14 over 2 years.. whatever the best you can do is but somewhere around there is what I'm guessing he gets right now. 

Wait you say - what's the point?! Where does he play?! Where's the money?! 

Step #2: Trade Jason Kubel ($5.25MM) and either Nick Blackburn ($3MM) or Kevin Slowey (around $3MM)  to the Mets for SP prospect Matt Harvey and RP Manny Acosta. 

How it helps the Twins: 

1.) +1 decent RP in bullpen & under control for a few years 

2.) +1 DH platoon partner for Thome / can play for Cuddyer or Young and not lose anything really. Platoon w/ Cuddyer vs lefties sometimes? 

3.)  Extra depth in case of Morneau

4.) 2011 versatility for Vlad to be your RF or your DH - depending on what makes sense next year

5.) +1 questionable but still high end pitching prospect 

How it hurts the Twins: 

1.) Relying on Manship / Gibson / Swarzak / Bromberg / Perkins  when one or more of the starters inevitably struggle or go down with injury

Why it won't happen: 

1.) You could argue that the Mets would be better served now & in future by picking up Vlad Guerrero themselves and maybe taking a flier on one or more the remaining SP's out there. 

2.) Don't think I've ever seen a trade work out like this where you were relying on signing a free agent then making a trade. Not sure which you would do first in order to not give the other party too much leverage. Certainly haven't seen the Twins pull something like that off before. 

3.) Don't think the Twins would like the local headlines after trading more proven players for more Mets "prospects" 

OK - so go ahead & tell me other reasons why this is a dumb idea. (Neat idea anyway though, right?) 

Players who made it to the majors in all caps and significant big-leaguers in bold

Big Leaguers for other teams (did not sign with Twins or traded) in italics.

Minor-leaguers still in system in lower case and significant players in bold. I don't see any players drafted in 2003 or before that haven't made it to the majors and are still in the system. Also 2008, 2009, 2010 drafts have more players than listed still in the system but I just picked out the names I regularly see in minor league box scores.

2000

JASON KUBEL (12th round)

AARON HEILMANN (1st round supplemental - METS 2001 1st round - #18 )

PAUL MAHOLM (17th round - PIRATES 2003 1st round - #8 )

JD DURBIN (2nd round)

JOSH RABE (11th round)

2001

JOE MAUER (oh you know)

JOSE MORALES (3rd round as a shortstop) 

NICK BLACKBURN (29th round)

MATT MACRI (17th round - don't think he signed.. came back in a trade w/ ROX I think)

2002

DENARD SPAN (1st round

JESSE CRAIN (2nd round)

PAT NESHEK (6th round)

ADAM LIND (8th round - JAYS 2004 4th round)

JEFF CLEMENT (12th round  - MARINIERS 2005 1st round - #3)

2003

SCOTT BAKER (2nd round)

LEVALE SPEIGNER (14th round - left as minor league free agent I think?)

TRAVIS METCALF (38th round - RANGERS 2004 - 11th round)

2004

GLEN PERKINS (1st round - #22 ... phil hughes was #23 *nuts*)

MATT TOLBERT (16th round)

TREVOR PLOUFFE (1st round - #20)

ANTHONY SWARZAK (2nd round)

--------------------------

kyle waldrop (1st round - #25)

matt fox (1st round supplemental)

eduardo morlan (3rd round)

rene tosoni (34th round - did not sign)

 

(pretty weak draft considering how may 1st round & supplemental picks they had)

2005

MATT GARZA (1st round - #25)

KEVIN SLOWEY (2nd round)

BRIAN DUENSING (3rd round)

ALEX BURNETT (12th round)

STEVE TOLLESON (5th round)

-----------------------------

yonder alonso (16th round - REDS 2005 1st round - #7)

paul kelly (2nd round)

ryan mullins (3rd round)

erik lis (9th round)

david bromberg (32nd round)

rene tosoni (36th round - signed this time)

toby gardenhire (41st round)

2006

DANNY VALENCIA (19th round)

ANTHONY SLAMA (39th round)

JEFF MANSHIP (14th round)

ANDREW OLIVER (17th Round - TIGERS 2009 2nd Round)

----------------------------

chris parmalee (1st round)

joe benson (2nd round)

tyler robertson (3rd round)

steve singleton (11th round)

mark dolenc (15th round)

derek mccallum (50th round - did not sign)

brian dinkelman (8th round)

2007

--------------------------------

ben revere (1st round)

dan rams (2nd round)

angel morales (3rd round)

mike mccardell (6th round)

daniel lehmann (8th round)

michael tarsi (12th round)

josh workman (23rd round - TIGERS 2008 38th round)

mike kvasnick (31st round - ASTROS 2010 1st round supplemental #33)

2008

----------------------------

aaron hicks (1st round - #14)

carlos gutierrez (1st round - #27... lonnie chisenhall & casey kelly #29 & #30 respectively)

shooter hunt (1st round supplemental - #31)

tyler ladendorf  (2nd round - traded to Oakland)

robert lanigan (3rd round)

daniel ortiz (4th round)

nicholas romero (5th round)

bj hermensen (6th round)

dan osterbrock (7th round)

michael gonzales (9th round)

evan bigley (10th round)

blayne weller (14th round)

bruce pugh (19th round)

steven blevins (21st round)

nate hanson (28th round)

michael tonkin (30th round)

2009

-----------------------

kyle gibson (1st round - #22)

matt bashore (1st round supplmental)

billy bullock (2nd round)

ben tootle (3rd round)

derek mccallum (4th round - signed this time)

brian dozier (8th round)

steven liddle  (15th round)

dakota watts (16th round)

kane holbrooks (21st round)

nick lockwood (9th round)

2010

----------------------------

alex wimmers (1st round - #21)

niko goodrum (2nd round)

pat dean (3rd round)

eddie rosario (4th round)

nate roberts (5th round)

logan darnell (6th round)

matt hauser (7th round)

lance ray (8th round)

kyle knudson (9th round)

jadamion williams (10th round)

To me the 2007 draft looks like the worst of the decade. If neither Revere or Morales make it the entire draft looks like a bust... but it wouldn't take much to outperform the 03 class either.

2005, 2002, and 2001 draft classes all have had solid returns but hard to pick one as the best.

Hard to say anything about the 2008,2009, 2010 classes yet but hopefully they atleast look better than the 03 & 07 classes after a couple of years.

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100806&content_id=13110714&vkey=news_min&fext=.jsp&c_id=min

Apologies if someone already mentioned this but I'd been waiting all summer for this. 

Bonus = $1.332 MM 

Reporting for duty @ Fort Myers on Sunday.

From what I can find recent bonuses are: 

Kyle Gibson was $1.8MM last year

Aaron Hicks was $1.78MM in 2008 

Ben Revere was $750K in 2007 

Chris Parmelee was $1.5MM in 2006 

I was pondering today about how the twins could get fair value for Ramos and fill some holes at the same time. For what its worth, this is what I came up with.

Part One

Boston gives: Ellsbury, Lowell, Youkilis & 15MM cash to cover Lowell's contract this year and some of Youkilis' contract

Boston receives: Ramos, Harris, Kubel

Part Two:

San Diego gives: Heath Bell

San Diego receives: Delmon Young

First Part explained:

Boston gets the most the can expect for Lowell, a top prospect in tough position for ellsbury, and a less expensive, more versatile, similar offensive player in Kubel for Youkilis. 

Twins get a more productive, reliable, cost-controlled LF and alternate CF for Ramos, one year of an offense only 3B that should sit for Punto in late innings for Harris, a more expensive 1B, DH, and to some extent 3B option in Youkilis for Kubel.

Second Part explained:

San Diego sheds payroll for a position player with potential. Maybe this is enough to make room to sign Adrian G? Even if not this makes sense for them as spending big on relief doesn't make sense for them.

Twins add payroll (roughly 1.4MM this year and around 3.5MM next year of Bell's salary vs. Delmon's) and trade the superfluous (in lieu of Ellsbury) potential of Delmon for the certainty of (2) years of solid production at a position of need (closer).

How the $$$ works out:

Part One:

Boston drops 22MM in 2010 payroll (400K Ellsbury, 9.25MM Youk, 12.25MM Lowell) and adds 6MM (Kubel, Harris, Ramos). Boston sends 15MM cash to Twins. Basically a wash for 2010 payroll. 

Boston drops 11.25MM in 2011 payroll (2MM est. Ellsbury, 9.25MM Youk) and adds 7.5MM. Boston drop a net of 3.75MM in payroll.

Twins drop 5.6MM (ramos $$ doesn't count if he's in minors) and add 22MM in payroll. Add in 15MM cash and this is basically a wash for 2010.

Twins add a net of 3.75MM to 2011 payroll (see above).

Part Two:

Padres drop $4MM in 2010 payroll and add 2.6 MM - Net drop of 1.4MM

Padres drop around 7.5MM in 2011 payroll and add around 3.5MM in 2011 payroll - net drop 4MM

Twins add 1.4MM and 4MM respectively in 2010 and 2011 

Overall Twins add 1.4MM in 2010 payroll and about 7.75MM in 2011 payroll. Meanwhile they swap top-notch DH's, replace Delmon with a better LF and backup CF, and fill the closer hole for 2010 and 2011. The 7.75MM adder to 2011 payroll would mean that they would have to use Plouffe or other in-house players at 2B unless they add payroll (around 5MM to sign a Hudson-esque player). 

Big Reasons this would never happen:

1.) Two part deals like these don't happen often. Its even more rare for the Twins to be apart of one.. and I don't think they've ever instigated/coordinated one themselves , which is what this would take. 

2.) Even though I think this trade would improve Boston in the near and long-term at first glance it will seem like highway robbery to casual Red Sox fans. I imagine them thinking "We're trading Ellsbury, Youk, Lowell AND 15MM to MN for some minor league guy, a utility infielder, and whoever Jason Kubel is??" but if you break it down it makes sense for the Sox.

• Harris is the most talent they'll get for Lowell at this point and they'll have to pay Lowell's salary wherever he goes.  
• Youkilis offers significantly better production than Kubel but plays a less premium position and is likelier to be less affordable in the long-term. This also opens the door for Boston to sign Adrian Gonzalez after the 2010 season in lieu of signing V Mart or trading for him mid-season.
  
• Ellsbury is the more proven talent but Ramos has higher potential and plays a more premium position.
  

Still perception is what it is and I don't think the casual Boston fan would cotton to this trade.

This is all worthless to worry about now since there are still so many variables but in light of the Mauer signing I couldn't stop myself from wondering how sustainable the lineup will be once Joe's new contract kicks in next year.

Depending on what your guesses are for arbitration amounts and whether or not the payroll can increase slightly next year I think a reasonable estimate is that the Twins will be left with somewhere between $0 and $7million to fill the following vacancies from this year's squad: 

SP (PAVANO)

2B (HUDSON)

RHP (GUERRIER)

RHP (RAUCH)

RHP (CRAIN)

IF (PUNTO)

PH (THOME)

disclosures:

***I'm considering the 2009 twins 25 man roster to be mauer, morneau, hudson, hardy, harris, punto, casilla, cuddyer, span, young, kubel, thome, morales, baker, blackburn, slowey, liriano, pavano, guerrier, neshek, condrey, mijares, rauch, crain, perkins

*** Projection of 0 to 7 miilon available to fill holes is based on 2011 salaries from Cots and personal guesses on arbitration raises

Replacing a utility infielder and a pinch hitter probably won't be too much of a challenge but the Twins will need one of a couple of things to happen to improve or maintain this year's club next year: 

1.) Starting Pitcher and Bullpen

Re-sign one of the relief pitchers and replace the SP and (2) relievers with (Nathan - back from surgery) and 1 SP and one reliever from the following prospect likely to be ready in 2011 (Duensing, Slama, Delaney, Gutierrez, Burnett, Swarzak, Manship, Van Mil, others?). There has to be a worthwhile MLB reliever in that bunch but I don't know for sure that there's a decent back-of -the-rotation SP among Duensing, Swarzak, Manship, and Gutierrez. I'd like to think there's a pitcher in that group that can match or beat Carl Pavano but I consistently overestimate Twins pitchers.  

or

Don't re-sign any of the relievers and find a SP and (2) decent relievers among the prospects listed above. Slightly less likely than the above but still possible.

or

Spend most or all money available on a mediocre veteran SP and replace (2) relievers from prospects. Seems like it would be a waste to spend big on a mediocre pitcher - don't think they can afford a top-tier pitcher.

2.) Second Base

Re-sign Orlando Hudson for a contract similar to current deal. Could be enough left over to re-sign one of the relievers.This seems possible and is my current favorite.

or

Hope that one of Casilla or maybe Plouffe/Hughes develops into something at 2B. This is very, very unlikely in my opinion. Casilla is the best bet but I just don't see it.

3.) Fill some of these holes by trading currently redundant and close to ready prospects/players including:

Ramos/Morales (would rather trade morales and keep ramos as a backup to mauer)

Revere/Benson

Pitching Prospects/players listed aboveunder Item #1

2B MARKET

INTERESTED TEAMS (TEAM NAME & PROJECTED STARTING 2B)

1.) Indians – Luis Valbuena

2.) Padres – David Eckstein @ only 1MM

3.) Twins – Punto (4MM) & Casilla )

4.)  Rockies – Clint Barmes

5.) Astros – Kaz Matsui (5.5 million) & Edwin Maysonet

6.)  Dodgers – Jamey Carroll & Blake DeWitt  - Dodgers cant add payroll due to McCourt divorce

7.) Mets – Luis Castillo (6.25MM EA / next 2 yrs) - people saying Castillo trade highly unlikey

WORTHWHILE 2B FREE AGENTS

1.) Orlando Hudson (32) - Type A, not offered arb, 2009 salary = 3.3 MM

2.) Felipe Lopez (30) - Type B, not offered arb, 2009 salary = 3.5 MM

3.) Ronnie Belliard (35) - Type B, not offered arb 2009 salary = 1.9 MM

4.)Orlando Cabrera (35) - 2009 salary = 4 million - recall a rumor about him moving to 2B

WORTHWHILE 2B AVAILABLE BY TRADE 

1.) Dan Uggla (29) -2009 salary = 5.35 million (arbitration eligible)

2.) Jose Lopez (26) - 2010 salary = 2.3 million

3.) Brandon Phillips (28) - 2010 salary = 6.9 million - is he really available?  not sure worth the $

3B MARKET

INTERESTED TEAMS (TEAM NAME & PROJECTED STARTING 3B)

1.) Twins - Valencia, Punto, Harris

2.) Cardinals - David Freese

3.) Marlins - Wes Helms, Emilio Bonafacio... Uggla? 

4.) Orioles - Wigginton to play 1st, Atkins to play LF/DH?

5.) Rockies - Ian Stewart

6.) Pirates - Andy LaRoche & Pedro Alvarez

WORTHWHILE 3B FREE AGENTS

1.) Joe Crede (32) - 2009 salary = 2.5 million base incentives up to 7 million

2.) Miguel Tejada (36)- 2009 salary = 14.8 million (stupid Astros)

3.) Melvin Mora (38) -2009 salary = 8 million

4.) Adam Kennedy (blech) (33) - 2009 salary = 400,000

WORTHWHILE 3B AVAILABLE BY TRADE 

1.) Kevin Kouzmanoff (28) - 2009 salary = $432,200 (arbitration eligible)

2.) Mike Lowell (36) - 2010 salary = 12.5 million (is he still available after kotchman trade?)

OK.. so maybe the most defining trait I have is that I'm wrong a lot. However, I am also honest enough to revise my thoughts on things as new evidence proves how wrong I am.
So, after several good points made in the comments and a week of big news affecting the 3B market here's how I see things now. 
Someone asked if I would do this for 2B as well and I don't think I will. I think there are fewer 2B on the market and more teams interested. Add to that the fact that just about any mediocre fielding 2B that produces offensively can be signed as a 3B (Placido Polanco) or elsewhere and it seems an infinitely harder task to lay everything out (though not as hard as guessing which SPs end up where). Also, while I like the idea of the Twins picking up Felipe Lopez too, to be honest it just seems a lot more likely to me they will go after a cheap 3B in a market with several options. I just hope a decent bat is left at a price the Twins can afford.


So with that said, for whatever its worth, here's where I reckon the 3B market is at now...

TEAMS W/ HIGH PRIORITY TO FIND A 3B  (these teams will get new 3B or re-sign FA 3B)

1.) Orioles

TEAMS THAT MAY PICK UP A 3B IF YEARS & $$ ARE RIGHT

2.) Giants Gillaspie isn't ready.  Do they want to use Sandoval at 1st or third? Even with all of the 3B on the market it may still be easier to find a bat to sit at 1B but have to imagine they're highly interested in the 3B market. Uribe turned down SF's offer.

3.) Astros If they don't keep Tejada and move him to 3B I'd think they would atleast pick up one of the 3B options. 3B is a priority from an article on the Astros site "But don't expect the Astros to break the bank to bring in a big name to play third. They'd be content with Blum and Keppinger."

4.) Angels Chone Figgins is gone. If Brandon Wood doesn't get his chance now when will he ever? I don't know how high the Angels are on Wood though or why wouldn't they have tried Chone Figgins elsewhere to give Wood a few more ABs the last few years. Most of their budget is going after Lackey or other SPs but even if the job is Wood's I bet they atleast get a FA 3B (Troy Glaus returning home?) to share time with him.. just because even if its puts them over budget, its not that big of a deal in the scope of their budget. Especially if they get rid of Gary Matthews Jr.  
5.) Twins Most of whats left in the budget has Mauer's name on it. But its reasonable to think the Twins might be able to afford a small upgrade / short tem gamble at an infield position and mediocre SP or (1) solid FA in additon to resigning Mauer. A 3B signing would likely be 1-2 year barring a trade of Valencia.

6.) Cardinals  Same situation as the Twins but with Pujols and David Freese in lieu of Mauer/Valencia, more financial flexibility in St. Louis, and Freese is somewhat of a more accomplished and better 3B prospect than Valencia. Popular consensus seems to be that if they can't resign Holliday they will upgrade at 3B and let Freese get some more time in the minors or trade him. Personally, if Holliday goes I would throw the money at one of the top starters instead of another bat.
7.) Marlins If they keep Uggla, you'd think they would try to shift him to 3B to use Coglahan at his more valuable position. (Who cares if Uggla doesn't like it -everyone knows he's not a long-term player there) Otherwise, if Uggla goes they'll surely be interested in the same short-term, middling 3B options as the Twins. 

TEAMS POSSIBLY INTERESTED IN A 3B (MAYBE?)

8.) Pirates (stick w/ andy laroche until Pedro Alvarez is ready?)

9.) Rockies (probably stick w/ ian stewart or is he a viable option @ 2B? they seem pretty convinced they have no need for atkins)

10.) Padres I only put them in the list because I read that they were looking at 3B options somewhere. But as long as Kouzmanoff and Headley are on this team it doesnt make any sense at all to bring in another 3B. They really shouldn't even be on the list.  Really, these last (3) teams are only on the list as a sign of good faith that I did actually consider the rosters of all the MLB teams.

Next, here's a list of available 3B on the market with my guesses on where they go.

FREE AGENT STARTERS

Adrian Beltre (31) - Type B (Orioles, Giants, Astros) Pure guess but I think he'd rather play on the West Coast. But in a big 3B market in a down economy the Orioles are one of only a few teams with money to spend and they need a solid 3B for long enough (3 years atleast) that they could sign him for a price & length close to what Beltre is asking for. 
Troy Glaus (33) - Type B (Angels, Giants, Astros ) He's from California, he went to college in California, he played for the Angels for so many years, I bet he still lives in CA.. My guess is he moves back to the west coast or atleast somewhere warm.
Joe Crede (32) - (Twins, Cardinals, Marlins ) I think Crede would take a hometown discount to be a Cardinal. I don't think he'd have any problem spending the remainder of what little is left of his career as a Twin either. Marlins could sneak in and steal him if they overpay a little on years and /or $$? Or if the medical reports are bad enough maybe he's forced into retirement (hope not).  
Mark DeRosa (35) - Type B  - Its hard to even guess.. He's asking for so much more money than he's worth. I guess he goes to whatever team overvalues him the most and most dramatically overreacts to not getting their first choice at 3B? Or maybe everyone acts rationally and a team like the Twins/Cards/Marlins can pick him up for reasonable $$/years? 
Pedro Feliz (35) - (Twins, Marlins, Rockies) God I hope it doesn't happen but it seems teams like the Twins and Marlins are the only ones that would go after Feliz as a starter. Hopefully he goes to the Rox where he could have a decent role as a cheap bench bat / added versatility.
Melvin Mora (38) - Type B - He may just retire but otherwise he'll probably go to God-knows-what team on a cheap contract as a gamble-bench bat. Or maybe a team like the Twins /Marlins take a gamble on a 1 year incentive contract for 3B... which would seem to be a better option than Feliz atleast. 

FREE AGENT STARTERS BUT MAY PLAY POSITION OTHER THAN 3B IN 2010

Miguel Tejada (36) - Type A - not offered arbitration - I have no idea.. for all I know some team thinks he can be their SS for the next 3 years. Would be neat if the Twins got him but I think he gets more years on his contract than the Twins are willing to offer (money probably isn't as big of an issue).
Juan Uribe (31) Doubtful to stick with Giants now, he has atleast some value if he stays in the NL. Cards, Rox, Astros and Marlins are all decent fits but my money is on the Marlins.
Adam Kennedy (34) - reunion with the Cards or Angels as utility depth / spot starts? Could fit with the Astros or a number of other teams. I'd like to think the Twins would realize that they already have a player that is basically Adam Kennedy or slightly better already (Brendan Harris). 

STARTERS THAT MAY BE AVAILABLE BY TRADE

Dan Uggla (stays in Florida?)
Kevin Kouzmanoff (stays in San Diego)
Mat Gamel (3B/ OF bench bat for Brew Crew?)
Brandon Wood (starting 3B in LA ?)
Garrett Atkins (likely a cheap 1 to 2 year gamble for some team as a starter or 3B depth... Twins, Cards, Angels?)

Finally, here are what I now see as the top realistic options for the Twins.

TOP REALISTIC OPTIONS FOR TWINS

1.) Dan Uggla (whether he plays 2nd or 3rd - pref. 3rd) - not sure if this is realistic or not. I believe he would be eligible for FA after 2011 at which point the Twins would likely let him go in exchange for (presumably) Type A draft picks. Uggla's arbitration contracts for 2010 and 2011 would probably put the Twins a bit over our conservative guesses on what the Twins payroll will be.. but hey, a guy has a right to dream right? Besides, its really not an outlandish proposition if the Marlins place any value on the numerous middling SP prospects the Twins have.

2.)Miguel Tejada ( I don't see it happening because of the years but he'd be nice on a 3 year deal for 6 to 7 million. Play at 3rd and some time at SS, maybe 2B too? What would happen to Valencia & Hughes? I think atleast one of them is bound to be an adequate and cheap option this year or next... a 3 year FA would destroy an opportunity to save payroll for several years.. Twins don't skip those opportunities)

3.)Troy Glaus  (only on a 2 year 6 to 7 million contract max if he'll come to MN at all)
4.) Mark DeRosa (only on a 2 year 5 to 6 million per contract max)
4.) Joe Crede   (only on a 1 year PA-incentive contract max)
5.)  Mat Gamel (only if price is around Perkins, Duensing, or Manship.. between him, Valencia, and Hughes one is likely to be atleast adequate and cheap for a few years)
6.) Garrett Atkins (only on a 2 year 3 to 4 million per contract max) - who knows.. maybe the home /away splits are somehow an aberration?
7.) Melvin Mora  (one year PA-incentive contract max w/ on year club option ) maybe there's enough left in the tank for one year of decent 3B and slightly above average production. Low risk gamble anyway.

*** NOTE - the $$ and year amounts (like all things in this post) are pulled directly from my butt. Its just my immediate thought at the moment what each player is really worth.

Please No.... (rank from most to least horrible)

 

1.) Juan Uribe  - I don't know how his glove is at 3B and frankIy I don't really care because I watched him for a long time as a White Sox and I feel like I have a pretty good idea of what he is at the plate. No thanks, I'd rather have Harris or even Punto at 3B all year.

2.) Pedro Feliz - Less putrid than Uribe and maybe possible to carve a role for him off the bench but why bother? Just give the ABs to Harry.

3.) Adam Kennedy - I don't think the Twins would lose anything beside valuable salary room but , again, why bother? Just give the ABs to Harry. Same guy at this point in their respective careers.

Hi all.. longtime lurker first time poster here who just spent his evening thinking about which potential Twins thirdbaseman I should be imagining in the 2010 lineup while I wait through the gray months. Here's what I came up with...

First, here are the teams looking to for someone to play the hot corner. Teams are ranked per how likely they are in my opinion to pick up a player and teams not on the list at already have an above average 3B under contract for 2010.

TEAMS W/ HIGH PRIORITY TO FIND A 3B  (these teams will get new 3B or re-sign FA 3B)

1.) Angels
2.) Phillies
3.) Orioles

TEAMS THAT MAY PICK UP A 3B IF YEARS & $$ ARE RIGHT

4.) Twins (stick with Punto / Harris / Valencia ?)
5.) Cardinals (stick w/ david freese?)
6.) Padres (move chase headley back to 3B or stick with Kouzmanoff?)
7.) Marlins (stick w/ wes helms, bonafacio, and maybe uggla too?)
8.) Astros (stick w/ geoff blum, keppinger, and maybe tejada?)
9.) Giants (stick w/ gillaspie, sandoval, and maybe Uribe too?)
10.) Mariners (stick w/ Bill Hall?)
11.) Rockies (probably stick w/ ian stewart or is he a viable option @ 2B? they seem pretty convinced they have no need for atkins)
12.) Pirates (stick w/ andy laroche until Pedro Alvarez is ready?)

Next, here's a list of available 3B on the market (with my guesses on where they go in parentheses).

FREE AGENT STARTERS

Chone Figgins (32) - Type A (resigns w/ LA or moves position & signs with another big market somewhere... he's really only played 3B for the last three years though and he's type A so I think he stays put)
Adrian Beltre (31) - Type B (Phillies, Orioles, Angels)
Troy Glaus (33) - Type B (Phillies, Orioles, Cardinals, Astros, Giants, Angels)
Joe Crede (32) - (Twins, Cardinals, Orioles, Padres)
Mark DeRosa (35) - Type B (Twins, Orioles, Cardinals)
Pedro Feliz (35) - (Twins, Orioles, Marlins)
Melvin Mora (38) - Type B (Twins, Padres, Astros, Marlins)

FREE AGENT STARTERS BUT MAY PLAY POSITION OTHER THAN 3B IN 2010

Miguel Tejada (36) - Type A (resigns w/ Astros)
Juan Uribe (31) (resigns w/ Giants)
Adam Kennedy (34) (no idea)

STARTERS THAT MAY BE AVAILABLE BY TRADE

Dan Uggla
Kevin Kouzmanoff (stays in San Diego?)
Matt Gamel
Brandon Wood (starting 3B in LA if they don't sign Figgins?)
Garrett Atkins

FA 3B BENCH PLAYERS AT BEST  (won't start @ 3B for any MLB team)

Brian Barden (29)
Rich Aurilia (38)
Aaron Boone (37)
Nomar Garciaparra (36)
Mark Loretta (38)
Craig Counsell (39)  
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Robb Quinlan (33)
Bobby Crosby (30)

Finally, here are what I see as the top ten options for the Twins. I would hope that either Valencia or Hughes get called up to at least split time with a sub-par regular by mid-season if it comes down to Options #8 through #10.

TOP REALISTIC OPTIONS FOR TWINS

1.) Dan Uggla (whether he plays 2nd or 3rd - pref. 3rd)
2.) Adam Kennedy (only on a 3 year contract max)
3.) Troy Glaus  (only on a 2 year PA-incentive contract max)
4.) Brandon Wood (only if price is around Perkins, Duensing, or Manship + 1 or 2 mid level prospect(s) max)
5.) Mat Gamel (only if price is around Perkins, Duensing, or Manship)
6.) Mark DeRosa (only on a 2 year incentive laden contract max)
7.) Joe Crede   (only on a 2 year PA-incentive contract max)
8.) Garrett Atkins (only if the price is a mid-level prospect(s))
9.) Pedro Feliz  (one year contract w/ one year club option)
10.) Melvin Mora  (one year PA-incentive contract max w/ on year club option )

Also a  prediction... I think the Phils give Beltre a contract which sets the benchmark for the rest of this offseason's deals for 3B.