Some of you, those who aren't completely preoccupied with following the antics of that madcap Tom Brady (is he okay?), or drowning your sorrows over the failed prospect of meeting the Saints in the Super Bowl (your sympathy is appreciated), may be aware that New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has dumped Sean Payton and is now reportedly shacking up again with Jeff Fisher over in St. Louis.

That has left the New Orleans front office in a quandary, and given us Saints fans something to talk about besides Alex Smith with the Candlestick in the Sports Bar. There are a lot of potential DC candidates out there; but of course, everyone is concentrating on the big names.

I wanted to talk about someone else, a used-to-be big name: Dean Pees. As you can probably guess, not many fans of an NFC team know a whole lot about a guy who was last a coordinator two years ago...and so, I figured I'd go directly to the best source of information on the subject: Wikipedia. This is what they had to say about the end of Pees' tenure in New England:

Pees chose not to return to the team on January 14, 2010.

So, that brings me here. You guys must know more about what happened than just this. Plus, you must have opinions, pro or con, on whether or not Pees would be a good hire for another DC job. Plus, you must be tired of talking about that boring playoff run and want a break. So please: lay all the information on me. Should we just limit our dreams to Steve Spagnuolo, or is there a viable alternative in Baltimore... someone who is plotting against you at this very moment?

All input much appreciated...

Emily Dickinson was wrong. Hope is not the thing with feathers that perches in the soul; hope is the thing with steel barbs that catch on your insides while it's being ripped out of you.

This, I think, was the most painful defeat in Saints history. It was ten times worse than the Seattle game, because this time we won...until we didn't. And that happened twice!

So, here are my random thoughts regarding Alex Smith with the lead pipe in the Candlestick. Forgive me, please, for not being better organized...I think I drank several of my best brain cells into oblivion (they're happier there, they refuse to come back).

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There was something terribly familiar about this game. To have it nearly won--twice--and then have a stake shoved through our hearts at the end. And damn, this stake looks familiar...oh yeah: the [site decorum] 49ers. I remember now.

I don't know if it has occurred to anyone else yet (forgive me for not poring over your blog...I had less painful things to do), but the last time a quarterback broke the NFL passing yardage record, it was the 49ers who put him in his place. I was actually living in San Francisco at the time, as a diehard Miami fan. There seems to be no end to the pain the 49ers keep in stock.

I think we can at least put to rest the idea that the Saints can't win on grass. It wasn't the grass that beat us. It wasn't the road that beat us. It wasn't even the 49ers defense or the turnovers that beat us. With all those advantages, y'all still held us just two points short of our season average, and 32 points should have been enough to get it done against that lame San Francisco offense. Except: it was that lame offense, and King Alex the Afterthought, who came through twice in the clutch and saved the game. The unit that got short shrift is the one that won if for you. That happens so many times, I don't know why we didn't see it coming...except that we were hoping the disrespected unit that came through would be the Saints' defense. Instead, they just showed why they were disrespected.

I know there are bound to be some of you that actively hate the Saints (although I can't understand why...they're so lovable), and wish nothing but misery and woe on their fans. Well, you got your wish: this was probably the most painful defeat in Saints history (and that qualifies as an informed opinion, because I've been a fan since All Saints Day, 1966). And if I might venture a non-informed opinion, not being a 49ers fan: this has to be the greatest Niners game since 2003. There will probably be a lot of red-and-gold babies born in early October.

A lot of 49ers fans on Canal Street Chronicles have gone out of their way to be gracious, assuring us that we'll meet in the playoffs again. I'm not so sure. The Niners look to be a team on the way up--I'm tempted to say that only Alex Smith holds you back, except that this time he was the reason you won. If this can continue, you may have another dynasty in the making. As for the Saints: we have too many free agents, too many aging players on defense, and I can't see us repeating this season next year. There's a chance, of course; but I fear this was our window.

Whatever. It is what it is. The world goes on (i.e., badly) and the Saints go home. You'd think we'd be used to it by now. Actually, I kinda miss the days when I didn't have to hope during the playoffs. You remember those days, I'm sure. You brought five rings out of them.

I'd be remiss if I didn't end this by saying that you 49ers fans have been a classy bunch throughout the week: staunchly defending your team, rarely stooping to invective, putting up with a bunch of crazed, delusional Vikings (for instance...me). Believe me, we've seen a lot worse--you should have seen our war of words with Vikings fans after we beat them in the conference championship. I hope nobody was stupid enough to come over here after the game and talk that kind of smack...and if they did, feel free to rub their noses in it.

Later, y'all. If there is a later. Damn.

...or: Yeah, Right. Like You Know Anything About Stats

Okay, so I'm not a statistician. In fact, if you put a gun to my head and told me to be a statistician or else, I'd choose the bullet. But my hobby is misinterpreting incomplete statistics, especially relating to sports, and I just wanted to share my latest project with you.

It's this: how good, really, is the San Francisco 49ers' defense? I mean, come on: where's Ronnie Lott? Where's Charles Haley? Where's Matt Millen? (Over there, in a box.) These aren't the 49ers we all loved to be scared spitless by during that whole Dynasty thing. So how good are these guys, anyway?

Short answer: pretty darn good. Ranked 1st against the run in the entire NFL. Ranked--whoa, wait a minute, 16th against the pass? Worse than Indianapolis? Really? (Okay, just checking.) Well, that's still good enough to rank them 4th in total defense, in the whole goldurned league. So that's impressive.

But I can't help myself--I've got to try to pick this thing apart somehow. And the manner that I choose to do it in is this: how good were the 49ers' divisional opponents? Those division games, after all, count for over a third of the total stats; and everyone knows the 49ers played in the weakest division of all (in fact, the NFL is thinking of demoting them next year and replacing them with the SEC).

For instance, how did the NFC West stack up running the ball? Because maybe the 49ers' top ranking in rush defense had something to do with the weakness of the competition. And sure enough: the NFC West came in dead last. (The NFC South, by contrast, trailed only the AFC West, making the Saints' rush defense look not-so-bad after all.) So that #1 ranking doesn't look so hot in view of the fact that San Francisco's major competition was, so to speak, lame. (And yeah, I realize that being in the same division as the 49ers undoubtedly had something to do with those low rankings...but playing 2 games against a great defense doesn't skew stats like playing 6 games against dud offenses does.)

So, how about that passing rank? Pretty middle of the road, so the competition within the division must have been fierce. And, indeed, when we look into the rank of the division as a whole, we find that in passing the NFC West ranked...last. Whoa. You mean that against the worst passing teams in the league, the best the 49ers could rank was 16th? Well, surely that's because nobody could run on them, so everyone had to pass. I mean, surely. And if the Saints also can't run on them, we still won't be able to pass the ball any better than the 16th-ranked team, which was...Tampa Bay. I mean, surely.

So we'll let that one, um, pass. So how were they in the most telling category: points allowed?

A very impressive 2nd in the league, behind only the Steelers. And where did the NFC West stand in points scored?

Whoa. Last. Again. Actually, I'm making that up--I haven't even checked yet. So hang on while I do the numbers...oops. Dang. I'm afraid this is where my whole thesis falls to the ground, because the NFC West is only second-to-last. Behind that powerhouse, the AFC South, home to the Colts and Jaguars.

So, all joking aside: the fact is, the 49ers spent the entire year fattening themselves against bad teams. Now that the 2011 season is over, we can know that with certainty, because the 49ers' strength of schedule was tied for 30th in the entire league. In fact, the only team that played a cushier schedule was...whoa. The New Orleans Saints.

In the words of Jared Allen: don't go there.

So, I guess we'll just to play the game after all. The stat-padding offense of the Saints against the bottom-feeding defense of the 49ers. Should be an instant classic.

I can't really vouch for the accuracy of this report, because it originates with Adam Schefter of ESPN...and, of course, Schefter's blog is behind a paywall (because he's so often right?).

But ProFootballWeekly is sourcing Schefter in its article, Report: Williams could follow Fisher.

This is the key sentence:

Fisher is considering taking either the Dolphins or Rams head coaching job, and it is believed Williams will follow him to either location.

"It is believed"? By whom? Based on what? There's little more than that single, bald assertion in this article...which is why I'm writing this as a FanPost instead of a FanShot: maybe it will get more views, and someone with an ESPN Insider Account can tell us if there is something more to the story than the idle speculation of one person.

In the meantime, said idle speculation opens up a very interesting question: should Gregg Williams go? Would the current defensive personnel do a better job in a different scheme...for instance, under Steve Spagnuolo? Because, all loyalty aside, the thought of this video game offense mated with a top 10 defense sends a tingle up my leg.

Long ago--so long ago that I didn't even bother searching for it, but Stu could tell you if Dave would let him back in--I predicted that the Saints would have a top-5 rushing attack in 2011. Well, the last game is in the books now, and it looks like I blew it.

They're ranked #6.

Going by rushing yards per game--which is the default setting on the stats page on NFL.com--the Saints trail Denver, Houston, Carolina, Minnesota, and Philadelphia. Going by total yards, they trail the same teams, in the same order.

But if you go by average per rush, the Saints jump over Denver into a tie for 4th place (at 4.9 yards a pop). So, in a sense, I was right after all. Oh, what the hell, one must stick up for oneself, must one not? So I'm calling this a win. Deal with it.

But there's something more interesting (even to me) than being proved right: the teams that stand above the Saints in per-carry average are Carolina, Minnesota, and Philadelphia, with Buffalo tied. And all those teams are sitting at home this offseason, watching along with us fans.

What that means is the Saints are the best rushing team in the playoffs. They're in a better position than anyone to win on the road, on grass, in bad weather, etc.

And pretty soon, by the only measure that really matters, they're going to be ranked #1 overall.

I know I've said this doesn't really matter, that it's just a matter of opinion...but I deserve to express my own opinion as much as any AP writer with a vote. And here is the objective proof of why Drew Brees deserves the MVP more than Aaron Rodgers:

31 of 44, 440 yards, 70.5 percent completion percentage, 6 TDs, 1 INT, passer rating of 136.4.

That's the stat line on Matt Flynn of the Green Bay Packers against the Lions.

To put this in context: the Lions were battling for playoff positioning; the Packers were battling for nothing at all. They sat Rodgers, Greg Jennings, James Starks, Bryan Bulaga, Clay Matthews, and Charles Woodson, and still won the game. Rodgers had only four games this season that were statistically better than Flynn's; and he has never thrown for six touchdowns in a game.

What does it all mean? That Green Bay misses almost nothing with Aaron Rodgers sitting on the sideline. Does anyone really believe--yet--that the Saints could pull off the same sort of offensive dominance they've shown this season--especially aganst a playoff team--if Chase Daniel were playing in Drew's place? (And that's not meant as a knock on Daniel: I think he'll turn out to be a good pro.)

And yes: I realize it was only one game. But in a competition as close as this, single games are enough to turn the tide in one direction or the other. Here are the final stat lines:

Aaron Rodgers: 45 TDs, 6 INTs, 4,643 yards, 68.3 completion percentage, passer rating of 122.5, in 15 games.

Drew Brees: 46 TDs, 14 INTs, 5,476 yards, 71.2 completion percentage, passer rating of 110.6, in 16 games.

It's true that Rodgers' numbers would have been greater had he played an extra game; it's also true that his completion percentage, passer rating, and any other stat expressible as a ratio might have gone down rather than up. What's truest of all is: we'll never know.

What we do know, along with the raw numbers, is this: Drew set a new NFL record for passing yards. He broke his own record for completion percentage. The Saints set a new NFL record for yards in a season, surpassing the "Greatest Show On Turf" as perhaps the best offensive unit in the history of the game. All under the leadership of who?

Drew Brees. For you AP writers, here's the spelling: D-R-E-W space B-R-E-E-S. Make a note of it. And give yourselves a good, long look in the mirror before you vote.

And, as always: Sinn Fein, y'all. [Hat tip to Ronnie Virgets, through Ashley Morris, through Grandmaster Wang. How ya been, Ronnie?]

So, everyone wants to mong stats? I can mong stats, too.

I was idly wondering how Drew does after having monster games, and said to myself, "Fool, just look it up." So I did, and I wish I hadn't.

Just for fun, let's define "monster game" as pretty much what he had last week against Minnesota. Only five other games since 2006 fall into that category: 42-17 over Dallas in 2006; 51-29 over Green Bay in 2008; 48-27 over the Giants and 38-17 over New England in 2009; and 62-7 over Indianapolis this year. Yeah, uh-oh: on that last one, we all remember what happened the next game. And sure, it wasn't all Drew's fault...not even nearly. Still...

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I have no idea how many--if any--New Orleans Saints read or are even aware of this site. So it's not like anything I have to say is going straight from my lips to Sean's ears, or even to Fenuki Tupou's. Still, I have something to say that I hope gets back to them somehow. Maybe I could get Dave to engrave it on some bats...except it's probably too long. And I can't find bat donors.

It's this: "As you are now, so once was I/As I am now, soon you shall be." That first half isn't entirely accurate--I was actually never an NFL player, though I did come close (I saw Jim Taylor once in a coffee shop). But it's the second half that's the important part, and that principle still holds: you are living on borrowed time.

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