SB Nation User Blog: MuleTrain

Ian Thomsen SI.com Mock Draft

MuleTrain — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 16:49:12 -0000

Ian Thomsen SI.com Mock Draft

SI.com mock draft has the Bulls taking Ty Lawson at 16 and Wayne Ellington at 26...all tar-heel backcourt?

Will Hester make "the leap" to elite this year?

MuleTrain — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 16:13:36 -0000

Devin Hester's ability to become a legit #1 receiver has been and will continue to be debated until he proves it on the field this year. He's being given every opportunity to become just that, see WCG post here.

He also has an elite QB throwing to him, and a revamped O-line. John St. Clair gave up 9+ sacks last year...Pace only 2. Link here. Beekman (if he stays a starter) and Kreutz are good pass protectors. Chris Williams is supposed to be, so in short, our much better QB should have good pass protection, so our passing game should and will improve. What improvement will we see from Hester? Conventional wisdom (whatever that is) says 3rd year receivers make a leap from mediocre/average to good or great. I won't go into proving whether this is true or not, but lets look at Devin Hester compared to other WR's we all hope Hester becomes.

Hester is entering his 3rd year as a receiver (4th overall, but did not play WR his rookie year). I'm grabbing all my stats from CBSsports fantasy site.

He's listed at 5'11" 190 lbs. Some say that's a little small for a true #1 receiver. For this comparison:

Steve Smith CAR 5'9" 185
Wes Welker NE 5'9" 185
Greg Jennings GB 5'11" 197
Santana Moss WAS 5'10" 200
Laveranues Coles CIN 5'11" 193
Lee Evans BUF 5'10" 197

Last year Hester had 52 receptions for 665 yards, 12.8 average, 3 tds. He was on the field for 631 of 1,012 plays, 62.4 percent. He was targeted 91 times by Bears' QBs.

Steve Smith in year 2 had 54 recpts, 872 yds, 16.1 avg, 3 tds. In year 3: 88, 1110, 12.6, 7.

Wes Welker in year 3 (w/ Miami) had 67, 687, 10.3avg, 1td (targeted 76x). Year 4 (w NE): 112, 1175, 10.5, 8td (targeted 145x). Welker really never saw the field and had no catches in year 1 similar to Hester. His leap comes from switching to a real team with a real QB and some guy named Moss lining up next to him. But I think the comparison is still valid.

Greg Jennings in year 2: 53, 920, 17.4avg, 12tds (85 targets). Year 3: 80 recpts, 1292 yds, 16.1 avg, 9tds, targeted 140x.

Santana Moss in year 2: 30, 433, 14.4avg, 4tds. In year 3: 74 recpts, 1105 yds, 14.9 avg, 10 tds.

Laveranues Coles in year 2: 59, 868, 14.7 avg, 7tds. In year 3: 89 recpts, 1264 yds, 14.2 avg, 5 tds.

Lee Evans in year 2: 48, 743, 15.5 avg, 7tds. In year 3: 82 recpts, 1292 yds, 15.8 avg, 8 tds.

These under 6ft receivers all made significant leaps from their 2nd year at wideout to their 3rd. They averaged 51.8 receptions in year 2 for 754 yards and then jumped to 87.5 receptions for 1206 yds the next year. Lots of factors play a role in this for sure, but there are a lot of indications (to me at least) that Hester can make a similar leap this year.

Jay Cutler being the number 1 reason why.

Thoughts?

Rookie Performance by WhatIfSports.com

MuleTrain — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 13:53:00 -0000

We've talked ad nauseum about our draft picks and ranking them, but here is one more list to go over.

A little info about the source first. Paul Bessire is a stat/numbers guy. He runs the WhatIfSports.com website and provides FoxSports.com with their stat projections. He runs 10,000 simulations of each and every NFL game and turns those into game predictions and fantasy stat projections. On WhatIfSports you can run simulated games for just about anything. A real time sink is the DreamTeams game/program. Basically, you can create your own super team from historic seasons by historic players and run game simulations against other teams at various locations with whatever weather conditions you want. I created an all-time Bears team with the '86 defense, '06 special teams, Sayers and Payton in the backfield with Sid Luckman at QB, etc. I matched them up against an all-time Green Bay team and da Bears cleaned their clocks. Wasted a whole afternoon at work doing this (hope the boss doesn't figure me out). I also played the '85 Bears vs the '07 Patriots (a more worthy Pats team obviously) and our beloved Bears were triumphant again.

Anyway, whatifsports ran an article predicting the impact of the 2009 NFL rookies. More after the jump.

In order to generate predictions for NFL rookie performance:

For the preview, we project stats for every single player and team in the league by simulating each game on the schedule 10,000 times. Coming up with statistical inputs is relatively easy for veteran players as most tend to play to a predictable performance trend as they age and take on different roles. Rookies present the biggest challenge. To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factors collegiate performance, role in college, strength of collegiate competition, "measurables," likely NFL role, previous performance of a similar player in that NFL role for this coaching staff and trends of similar rookies in the past. This gives us the player's projected ratio stats (expected yards per carry, completion percentage, etc.), as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his new NFL team in his first year.

So the list has 3 Bears' rookies:

94. D.J. Moore, CB, Chicago (drafted 119th overall)

64. Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Chicago (drafted 99th overall)

23. Jarron Gilbert, DT, Chicago (drafted 68th overall)

He has these guys seeing plenty of playing time and in Gilbert's case, providing some valuable production. If this is true than JA deserves some major kudos for finding great value in this year's draft. As it affects the Bears, Detroit has Louis Delmas at #10 on the list and Stafford at #2. Minnesota has Percy Harvin at #4 on the list (uh-oh).

1 last shot at Boldin; offer Greg Olsen

MuleTrain — Wed, 13 May 2009 13:54:07 -0000

Anquan Boldin as a Bear has been tossed around ad nauseum. Lots of interest, little ammunition to get it done. Arizona wants a 1st rounder we don't have, plus more. So what could we offer of value to Arizona and what have the Bears' done that sends a signal to me that something could happen?

We signed Gaines to be a blocking TE. To most everyone this signals the end of the Kellen Davis era. Fontel Mines is also around, and he's a pass-catching TE that probably won't make the roster. Lots of folks have suggested that the Bears shop Dez Clark. But at 32 years old and league average or slightly above avg ability, he has little trade value.

What about Greg Olsen? Lots of talent, a young, playmaking, healthy TE. Oft-injured, malcontent Kellen Winslow Jr. got traded for a 2nd and future 5th rnd pick. I think Olsen is worth more. I like him and don't want to see him go, but you have to trade value to get value. Arizona has no production from their TE's. Leonard Pope had 9 catches all of last year. Ben Patrick had 11. Even if Arizona's offense doesn't feature the TE's, 20 receptions from your top 2 TE's is really pathetic. Is the low production because of the lack of a good TE or is it by design?

Let's look at their coach Ken Whisenhunt to find out. He was the Tight Ends coach (hmmmm, interesting) for Pittsburgh from '01-'03. He then became offensive coordinator. His TE's in '04 were Riemersma and Tumane who had a total of 16 catches all season...uh, oh. But in 2005, along came Heath Miller, a good TE. 39 receptions and 6 td's in '05 and 34 receptions and 5 td's in '06. So, given a good TE, Whisenhunt's offense does utilize him. Nothing prolific, but not an afterthought either. In his 1st season in Arizona, Pope had 23 recpts and 5 td's. But his production and that of the TE position went way down the following year, me thinks because he isn't very good.

Now, the Bears offer Olsen, one of our young receivers, plus a 3rd round pick for Boldin. Whisenhunt, a former TE coach, gets a real pass catching threat to work into his offense. An offense that will use a TE if they have one. Boldin is replaced by Breaston (77recpts, 1006yds, not too shabby) in the starting lineup, plus they get another young receiver to work in. They drafted Beanie Wells to be the featured back, plus they still have Hightower. That's a scary good balanced offense. What's not to like from Arizona's perspective?

From the Bears' perspective, well we get Boldin. A stud receiver to pair opposite Hester. Boldin, Dez Clark, K.Davis/F.Mines >>>> Bennett/Iglesias, Dez Clark, Olsen in my opinion.

The Bears have a glut of pass-catching TE's right now. Have they stocked up knowing that a TE is on his way out? Olsen is clearly the best of the group. Could he be the guy on his way out? Thoughts?

Bears 4th in Power Rankings

MuleTrain — Mon, 11 May 2009 13:42:35 -0000

Of all the surprises I've seen, Peter King of SI, actually put the Bears 4th in his power rankings. He has questions about Cutler's leadership and how he'll mesh with Urlacher as the team leader. But he doesn't deny Cutler's talent and ability to put up 400 points even while throwing to Hester and Davis.

More after the jump...

Here's what he had to say of the Bears' D:

But then I went back and looked at their 2008 numbers. The bedrock stats for a good defense, I've always thought, are opponents yards per rush, turnovers forced and opponents' yards per pass. The yards per rush, 3.4, was excellent, third-best in the league. Turnovers forced, 32, was very good, second in the league. And yards per pass play by foes, 6.20, was eighth in the league. All good. If Cutler can lead an offense that puts up 400 points, only a point and a fraction more than a year ago, the Bears should win 12.

Well, there are so many naysayers out there it was kind of a shock to see a national sports writer (even a poor one), to predict the Bears at 12 wins. Personally, I see 10 or 11 but I'll take 12 thank you very much.

Now if we can just cut Rashied Davis and Jason McKie, then 14-2 is within reach.

King's top ten: New England, Pitt, NYGiants, Bears, Indy, Philly, SD, Balt, Dallas, Tenn.

NFC North: Bears (4), GB (14), Minn(15), Det (31)

Let's vote...

MuleTrain — Tue, 05 May 2009 20:38:54 -0000

Lots of posts, discussion, and fanposts about what to do about Kirk and Ben.

Lots of disagreements in the comments about what is the best course of action for Gar Paxdorf. Let's vote on it. Let's vote on it. Let's vote on it. Let's vote on it. Let's vote on it. Let's vote on it. Let's vote on it. Let's vote on it. Let's vote on it.

Poll

What should the Bulls do this summer with Ben and Kirk?

Sign Ben, keep Hinrich, go into luxury tax

44 votes

Sign Ben, trade Hinrich

38 votes

Let Ben go, keep rest of roster intact

30 votes

Let Ben go, trade Hinrich anyway

31 votes

Other...please explain in comments

16 votes

159 votes | Poll has closed

53 man roster

MuleTrain — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 13:54:32 -0000

Here's how the Bears looked last August.

3 QB's, 4 RB's, 1 FB, 6 WR's, 3 TE's, 8 O-linemen, 9 D-linemen, 6 LB's, 5 CB's, 5 Safe, 3 Specialists.

How I see it this year (bold is a change from last year:

3 QB's (Cutler, Hanie, unsigned veteran)

3 RB's (Forte, Jones, Wolfe or AP 1 will get cut I think)

1 FB (probably be Mckie, but I'm hoping its not.)

5 WR's (Hester, Iglesias, Bennett, Davis unfortunately, Rideau or Knox (Kinder lands on PUP list to redshirt for a year because of past injuries, just a hunch on this.)

3 TE's (Olsen, Clark, Kellen Davis or Louis depending on who's the better blocker)

8 O-linemen (Williams, Shaeffer, Pace, Omiyale, Kreutz, Beekman, Garza, Buenning)

9 D-linemen (Anthony Adams, Harris, Ogunleye, Brown, Harrison, Idonije, Anderson, Gilbert, and Melton) cya Toeana and Dvoracek unless they keep 10 to get another DT on the roster or Melton doesn't cut it.

6 LB's (Briggs, Hillenmeyer, Roach, Urlacher, Freeman, Jamar Williams)

6 CB's (Tillman, Vasher, McBride, Graham, Moore, Danieal Manning is a CB now because he's the nickel) Hamilton is out.

5 Safe (Payne, Steltz, Bullocks, Bowman now a FS, Earl or Afalava depending on FS ability and special teams play)

3 Specialists (Robbie Gould, Patrick Mannelly, Brad Maynard)

1 Spot Left

The only changes from last year were the reduction in number or RB's and WR's. I added an extra defensive back because the Bears were thin at the position last year and seem to have a big need there. Whether Bowman or Manning are considered safeties or corners isn't important, but I think the Bears will keep 11 db's instead of the 10 they had last year.

This leaves 1 more roster spot open...defensive tackle is an option especially if Harris ends up with lots of days off during training camp; so is 4th RB to keep AP on the roster. If the backup LB's and Safeties excel on Special Teams, I can see AP being shown the door. 6th WR is a real possibility too. Especially if some unknown veteran is picked up.

What do you think?

WCG Mock Draft using DraftTek.com

MuleTrain — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:03:15 -0000

Drafttek.com is a neat little time sinkhole. You can do your own mock drafts by cutomizing team needs (they have default ones in their based on their experts.) They also have their own big board. A simulator runs a mock through 7 rounds. I tweaked the Bears' teams needs a bit and entered in all of WCG's selections from our now completed mock draft. The results are:

This report was produced using Draft Tek's Draft Simulator: WWW.Drafttek.com. Posting this report without giving the foregoing information is a copyright violation.

2	49	Chicago	Juaquin Iglesias	WRF	Oklahoma	-12	Reach
3	99	Chicago	David Bruton	FS	Notre Dame	-1	Reach
4	119	Chicago	Trevor Canfield	OG	Cincinnati	3	Value
5	140	Chicago	Zack Follett	OLB43	California	10	Value
5	154	Chicago	Emanuel Cook	SS	South Carolina	1	Value
6	191	Chicago	Nick Reed	ILB	Oregon	-17	Reach
7	246	Chicago	Ian Campbell	DE43	Kansas St	22	Value
7	251	Chicago	Kyle Link	OT	McNeese State	-11	Reach

Here is what I put for Chicago's team needs:

Offense	QBPri	RBFPri	RBCPri	WRFPri	WRPPri	WRSPri	OTPri	OGPri	TEPri	OCPri	FBPri
Chicago	6	6	9	2	3	5	3	3	9	9	6


Defense	DT43Pri	DT34Pri	DE43Pri	DE34Pri	OLB43Pri	OLB34Pri	ILBPri	SSPri	FSPri	CBPri	PKPri
Chicago	4	9	3	9	4	9	5	5	2	4	9

I don't know how to attach a file, and I can't link to my specialized draft on their site, so below is the 1st 2 rounds. I won't post all 7 for obvious reasons. I'll email the mock spreadsheet to WCG and someone more knowledgeable then myself can edit this post to make it more user friendly.

Round	Pick	Team	Selection	Psn	School	Delta	ReachValue
1	1	Detroit	Matthew Stafford	QB	Georgia	-4	Reach
1	2	St Louis	Jason Smith	OT	Baylor	-1	Reach
1	3	Kansas City	Eugene Monroe	OT	Virginia	-1	Reach
1	4	Seattle	Michael Crabtree	WRF	Texas Tech	2	Value
1	5	Cleveland	Aaron Curry	OLB34	Wake Forest	4	Value
1	6	Cincinnati	Michael Oher	OT	Mississippi	-6	Reach
1	7	Oakland	Jeremy Maclin	WRF	Missouri	-3	Reach
1	8	Jacksonville	BJ Raji	DT43	Boston College	1	Value
1	9	Green Bay	Brian Orakpo	OLB34	Texas	1	Value
1	10	San Francisco	Robert Ayers	DE43	Tennessee	-20	Reach
1	11	Buffalo	Everette Brown	DE43	Florida State	-3	Reach
1	12	Denver	Rey Maualuga	ILB	USC	-6	Reach
1	13	Washington	Andre Smith	OT	Alabama	2	Value
1	14	New Orleans	Malcolm Jenkins	CB	Ohio State	5	Value
1	15	Houston	Clay Matthews	OLB43	USC	-8	Reach
1	16	San Diego	Tyson Jackson	DE34	LSU	1	Value
1	17	NY Jets	Josh Freeman	QB	Kansas St	-11	Reach
1	18	Denver	Peria Jerry	DT34	Mississippi	-2	Reach
1	19	Tampa Bay	Mark Sanchez	QB	USC	13	Value
1	20	Detroit	William Beatty	OT	Connecticut	-20	Reach
1	21	Philadelphia	Knowshon Moreno	RFB	Georgia	8	Value
1	22	Minnesota	Darrius Heyward-Bey	WRF	Maryland	3	Value
1	23	New England	Chris Wells	RFB	Ohio State	7	Value
1	24	Atlanta	Brian Cushing	OLB43	USC	7	Value
1	25	Miami	Sean Smith	FS	Utah	-11	Reach
1	26	Baltimore	Hakeem Nicks	WRF	North Carolina	-8	Reach
1	27	Indianapolis	Percy Harvin	WRF	Florida	6	Value
1	28	Buffalo	Eben Britton	OT	Arizona	-1	Reach
1	29	NY Giants	James Laurinaitis	ILB	Ohio State	2	Value
1	30	Tennessee	Vontae Davis	CB	Illinois	8	Value
1	31	Arizona	Donald Brown	RFB	Connecticut	-2	Reach
1	32	Pittsburgh	Alex Mack	OC	California	-3	Reach
2	33	Detroit	Evander Hood	DT43	Missouri	1	Value
2	34	New England	Aaron Maybin	OLB34	Penn State	10	Value
2	35	St Louis	Kenny Britt	WRF	Rutgers	-2	Reach
2	36	Cleveland	Darius Butler	CB	Connecticut	10	Value
2	37	Seattle	Max Unger	OC	Oregon	-5	Reach
2	38	Cincinnati	Eric Wood	OC	Louisville	-6	Reach
2	39	Jacksonville	Brian Robiskie	WRF	Ohio State	-7	Reach
2	40	Oakland	Michael Johnson	DE43	Georgia Tech	1	Value
2	41	Green Bay	Ron Brace	DT34	Boston College	-10	Reach
2	42	Buffalo	Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Oklahoma St	17	Value
2	43	San Francisco	Larry English	OLB34	Northern Illinois	5	Value
2	44	Miami	Alphonso Smith	CB	Wake Forest	13	Value
2	45	NY Giants	Clint Sintim	OLB43	Virginia	0	Value
2	46	Houston	Connor Barwin	DE43	Cincinnati	5	Value
2	47	New England	Jarron Gilbert	DE34	San Jose St	-10	Reach
2	48	Denver	LeSean McCoy	RBF	Pittsburgh	5	Value
2	49	Chicago	Juaquin Iglesias	WRF	Oklahoma	-12	Reach
2	50	Cleveland	Marcus Freeman	ILB	Ohio State	-15	Reach
2	51	Dallas	DJ Moore	CB	Vanderbilt	4	Value
2	52	NY Jets	Derrick Williams	WRF	Penn State	-19	Reach
2	53	Philadelphia	Jared Cook	TE	South Carolina	5	Value
2	54	Minnesota	Jairus Byrd	CB	Oregon	4	Value
2	55	Atlanta	James Casey	TE	Rice	-5	Reach
2	56	Miami	Paul Kruger	OLB34	Utah	-6	Reach
2	57	Baltimore	Lawrence Sidbury Jr.	DE43	Richmond	-15	Reach
2	58	New England	Darry Beckwith	ILB	LSU	-10	Reach
2	59	Carolina	Fili Moala	DT43	USC	-8	Reach
2	60	NY Giants	Phil Loadholt	OT	Oklahoma	4	Value
2	61	Indianapolis	Sen'Derrick Marks	DT43	Auburn	-12	Reach
2	62	Tennessee	Mike Thomas	WRS	Arizona	-19	Reach
2	63	Arizona	Louis Delmas	FS	Western Michigan	14	Value
2	64	Pittsburgh	Duke Robinson	OG	Oklahoma	12	Value

How about a little Braylon Edwards?

MuleTrain — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 18:55:54 -0000

According to some sources he's available/being shopped.

I wouldn't offer a 1st rounder, but a 2nd would be OK with me. He drops a lot of passes, but 2 years ago he had 80 receptions, 1289 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Or maybe a 3rd rounder and a player. If the price is our 1st rounder, I pass. JA would probably pass too.

Is a change of scenery and getting out of Cleveland what he needs to regain his form? or is he a "rich man's" Rashied Davis?

Uncapped in 2010 & Lockout in 2011

MuleTrain — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 19:49:13 -0000

Two interesting reads on CNNSI.com today. The first by Don Banks discusses the uncapped 2010 season and what it means. The 2nd by Peter King on their satellite deal worth a billion bucks per year!

To paraphrase the articles: The owners seem to have most of the leverage with the upcoming CBA negotiations. The uncapped season next year won't be the spending bonanza some (including me) thought it would be. This coming season's final four won't be able to sign anyone until they lose someone. The next 4 playoff teams will have salary restrictions on who they sign. Also, teams get to use an extra franchise or transition tag next year. Teams are using those more to keep the good players off the market. With 32 extra tags out there, good players probably won't hit the market.

And the biggest thing is that the players would need 6 years of NFL service(instead of 4) to be unrestricted. That means there'll be lots of restricted free agents out there instead of unrestricted. In the NFL, RFAs don't get the mega-deals. UFA's do. Add it all up and there doesn't seem to be a huge league-wide spending spree in the future.

Peter King talks about the 1 billion dollar per year DirectTV deal that goes from 2011-2014. If there's a lockout the NFL will still get PAID according to the deal. The owners will get paid, while the players get nothing in the event of a lockout.

So putting this all together...channeling my inner conspiracy theorist...maybe the Bears are going cheap now and will again next season to build up their bank accounts because ownership KNOWS there will be no 2011 season.