SB Nation User Blog: MuleTrain

Playoffs? We talkin' about playoffs?!?

MuleTrain — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:54:20 -0000

I know, it's a mixed quote. Two of the best from Jim Mora and Allen Iverson. But here the Bears are at 5-7. Lovie wants to keep his job, so he's going to keep "plucking" that chicken (NSFW audio). Until the Bears lose another game, he's going to do whatever he can to win. A lot of people disagree with this, but Lovie's still the coach and that's what's going to happen. The Bears must go 9-7 to have even a prayer at making the playoffs. Just what is he up against? What does the NFC playoff picture look like?

NFC East:

Dallas 8-4

Philly 8-4

NYG 7-5

NFC North:

Minny 10-2

GB 7-4 (plays tonight)

Chi 5-7

NFC South:

NO 12-0

Atl 6-6

Car 5-7

NFC West:

Ariz 8-4

SF 5-7

Sea 5-7

No doubt Minnesota and New Orleans will win their divisions. Arizona looks like a lock to win their division. Dallas, New York, and Philadelphia will be fighting for the East. The Giants and Eagles play next weekend, while Dallas has the Chargers in San Diego. Will the Cowboys wilt in December again? The Eagles get the Cowboys in week 17 as well, so they control their own destiny. Win those 2 games and they'll probably win the division. This is what the Bears/Lovie are hoping for. If Philly isn't in the Wild Card picture, then Philly's tiebreaker over the Bears is meaningless. A 9-7 Philly team that isn't the division winner pretty much knocks the Bears out of the playoffs. All three teams have a tough schedule remaining too. I'm not confident they'll all finish with 10 wins.

Green Bay is way out in front of the Bears for a Wild Card berth. GB plays a tough Baltimore team tonight. The Bears and Packers play next week. The Pack also have Pittsburgh and Arizona on their remaining schedule.

Atlanta has the Saints next weekend, then Jets, Buffalo, and Tampa. If Atlanta goes 3-1 over those 4 games, the Bears will be out. They lose their tiebreaker to the Falcons.

San Francisco has Arizona and Philly in the next 2 weeks, they need to win out also to be a factor.

Carolina has the Patriots, Vikings, Giants, and Saints the next 4 weeks. If they win out, that will be one of the most impressive 4 weeks any team will have played this season.

Seattle has a light schedule outside of Green Bay. The Week 17 game against the Titans might not mean much to Tennessee, or it might? Seattle needs to win out to have any shot though.

What does all this mean? To mean and you, the Bears season ended on the Metrodome turf last week if not sooner. To Lovie Smith, the Bears mathematically still have a chance to make the playoffs, and he's going to coach with that goal in mind. A surging Philly team, a tanking Dallas and Green Bay, a Giants team to stumble again, an Atlanta team to also stumble, plus the Bears winning out = playoffs. Pure fantasy? or a coach's only hope?

Jay Cutler: Football Outsiders Breakdown

MuleTrain — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:13:32 -0000

Football Outsiders writer Doug Fararr breaks down what's going on with Jay Cutler, the offensive line, and Ron Turner. He spoke with Greg Cosell from NFL Films and ESPN's State Farm NFL Matchup about Jay. A sample from the article:

while I have no clue what's going on in his head, the tentative throws I'm seeing indicate a shell-shocked player in a situation that doesn't work for him at all.

HT to Hatchetm for the link

Please read the whole article, it is very informative. I'll highlight a couple of relevant quotes.

I think you’re seeing the cumulative effect of a lot of things. One is an offensive line that is probably the worst in pro football.

He's waiting for the pressure. He's perceiving the pressure now when it's not there because it’s happened so often, he’s just expecting it to happen. He’s always been a tight window thrower. That’s one of the things that makes him different and that’s an attribute I think you have to have in the NFL, but he needs receivers who are bigger, who are more physical, who attack the football, who can make contested catches -- he doesn’t have one receiver like that in Chicago. And I’m not talking about tight ends, I’m talking about wide receivers. He’s got receivers who are runners. They don’t attack the ball; they don't make contested catches.

He’s an unbelievable talent that needs to be harnessed. Arguably, the two most gifted quarterbacks, in terms of pure, physical gifts, are Roethlisberger and Cutler. No one throws a ball like Cutler. He’s unbelievable.

I was astonished to see Pace get no help with Allen on any of those plays. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner managed to combine the protection leakage of wide sets with the inflexible non-production of a quick-screen-only offense. It was mind-blowing.

When you're facing a line like Minnesota's, and you have no protection, your only hope is that your deep receiver is faster to the completion of his route than Jared Allen is in knocking your head off.

Bears Offense is Statistically Awful

MuleTrain — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 14:49:33 -0000

If it was not already apparent that the Bears offense is less than awesome, this statistical analysis should remove all doubt. I've compiled stats from NFL.com and footballoutsiders.com. (FO has extensive write-ups and descriptions for what their stats mean and how to interpret them.)

First, let's look at the basics:

The Bears are ranked 23rd in total offense, 32nd in rushing offense, and 14th in passing offense.

Total yards do not tell the whole story though, since the Bears have been down a lot in games they are not running the ball and find themselves passing. Yards per play and yards per attempt tell a similar story.

The Bears are ranked 21st in yards per carry and 20th in yards per pass attempt. Very little on offense is working.

Also, the Bears are averaging 16 first downs per game, ranking 26th in that category. Their Time of Possession is 28:37; also ranking them 26th. Turnover margin is -5, good for 25th in the league. Finally, they have 74 penalties for 617 yards, which ranks them as the 6th most penalized team (by yards and #) in the league. Did I say little? I meant nothing is working on offense.

With an offense that is performing so poorly, there's a lot of blame to go around. Jay Cutler's Red-Zone interceptions, the porous & weak offensive line, Ron Turner's play calling, Matt Forte's timid running, and inexperienced receivers are all contributing to these poor numbers.

I want to focus on the offensive line in this post. The Bears have only 43 rushing 1st downs on the season. Wow. Let that sink in for a moment: less than 4 per game; dead last in the league. By contrast, the Dolphins, Saints, Panthers, and Jets have at least 80+ each.

According to Football Outsiders (FO), the Bears Offensive Line is ranked 27th in Adjusted Line Yards. Their Power Success is only 60% for a rank of 21st, which means on 3rd or 4th down with 2 or less yards to go, they only make a 1st down or touchdown 60% of the time they run the ball. Comparatively, Miami succeeds 81% of the time in similar situations for 1st in the league.

FO breaks it down further. They look at runs outside the tackles, at the tackles, and between the tackles.

Rnk	Tm	Lft End	Rnk	Lft Tackle	Rnk	Mid Guard	Rnk	Rt Tackle	Rnk	Rt End	Rnk
27	CHI	4.37	15	2.83	31	3.81	25	3.60	27	3.81	18

(Number is Adjusted Line Yards running in the direction indicated, and rank is league rank for those runs)

The Bears running game is performing very poorly when running at the Left Tackle. I wonder who that is? They are not doing much better with runs up the middle and to the right tackle. They are just mediocre when running to the outside. To indict Ron Turner in all of this let's look at where the Bears runs are going.

# Carries		Lft End		Lft Tackle		Mid Guard		Rt Tackle		Rt End
198		11%		9%		61%		9%		10%

League average for Mid/Guard runs is 51%. Only 3 teams run up the middle more than the Bears. The Bears don't have much success running up the middle, yet they keep doing it...a lot.

The numbers for the offensive line in the passing game are not much better. They have given up 24 sacks (16th most) but have also allowed 58 QB Hits. The Titans, Colts, and Saints are at 29, 31, and 35 QB Hits respectively.

A lot of blame for the Bears offensive impotence needs to be hurled at the offensive line. Right now the Bears are a bad run team and an average passing team. They do not run up the middle or at the tackles very well. When they run outside, they are at least league average. Knowing the teams' strengths and weaknesses, hopefully Ron Turner can start calling plays that put the players in the best spots to make plays.

Free Agent To Be Offensive Linemen

MuleTrain — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:32:17 -0000

The CBA negotiations have a lot to do with what can and can't happen in next year's free agency, but assuming the status quo, here is a breakdown of who will be available and a write-up on the top guys: LINK

A sample:

Jahri Evans, New Orleans Saints (26)
Jahri Evans is continuing to grade out as the team’s best run-blocking linemen week after week. The Saints have done a nice job of efficiently running the ball through the middle and on the right side of the line. His continual high level of play and positive, team-first attitude should translate to a high-end offensive guard contract at year’s end. Expect the Saints, who have nothing but positive things to say towards Evans, to richly reward him for his hard work and production.

The top guys won't really be available; they'll get franchised or will sign with their current teams. But of the 2nd-tier guys, is there anyone who knows anything about them? Who can the Bears' get? Who should they target?

Our Offensive Line:

NAME............ base salary.........Signing bonus( unamortized)....Other bonus ...TOTAL.. Contract. year

5. Beekman J $460,000 $97,500 -0- $557,500 2010

16 Garza,R $745,000 $583,000 -0- $1,328,000 2011

30. Kruetz O $2,333,000 $3,000,000 -0- $5,333,000 2010

33. Loius Lance $310.000 $10,0000 -0- $420,000 2012

38 Omiyale,F $620,000 $450,000 $3,880,00 $4,950,000 2012

40. Pace. O $1,350,000 $333,333 $3,650,000 $5,333,333 2011

45. Shaffer,K $183,000 750,000 $1.,450,00 $2,383,000 2011

51. Williams C $385,000 $100,000 $1,391,250 $1,876,200 2011

Def. Stats Analysis: Updated 10/28

MuleTrain — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:50:34 -0000

Updated to include getting debacled by Cincy. Since my stats post on the O-line was so popular (19 comments!) /sarc, I'll do the same for our defense and d-line.

By conventional stats, the Bears are ~~13th~~ 16th in yards per game, ~~14th~~ 16th against the pass, ~~6th~~ 18th against the run, and ~~15th~~ 22nd in points allowed. (~~above average~~) (not good)
They are 13th ~~6th~~ in yards per play (~~good~~) and 28th ~~24th~~ in 3rd down percentage (40% 44%) (real bad).
Other conventianal defensive stats: 10 11 sacks (21st 22nd), ~~7th~~ 5th in int's (10), and ~~LAST~~ 22nd in recovered fumbles (2 3).
According to Football Outsiders, the Bears are ~~13th~~ 21st overall in Defense DVOA. ~~11th~~ 24th vs the pass, ~~20th~~ 16th vs the run, and with a variance of ~~1.4%~~ 5.9% (ranked ~~1st~~ 19th) which means the Bears defense is no longer the most consistent in the NFL so far this season. They've had no great games and ~~no stinkers~~ 1 HUGE stinker.

So what does all that mean? The Bears D is little ~~above~~ below average. They're not getting to the quarterback enough, can't stop teams on 3rd down enough, and are not getting enough turnovers.

Let's dig a little deeper.

According to FO, our defensive line is ranked ~~5th~~ 13th overall in Adjusted Line Yards (the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive/defensive line based on the following percentages: * Losses: 120% value, * 0-4 Yards: 100% value, * 5-10 Yards: 50% value, * 11+ Yards: 0% value). Basically, they're doing a ~~good~~ average job against the run except in one area.

Their Power Success is ~~78%~~ 69% against them for ~~26th~~ 22nd in the league-still bad. On 3rd and 4th down, with less than 2 yards to go, teams are converting ~~78%~~ 69% of the time they RUN the ball. That's just turrible as Charles Barkley might say. Pretty good indication of why the D's 3rd down conversion percentage is so bad.

Predictably, the Bears D-line is ranked ~~20th~~ 24th with a ~~6.1%~~ 5.5% sack rate; they don't get to the quarterback, and they don't stop the run.

Let's dig even deeper on those disappointing Run Defense stats so we can assign some blame! The table excerpt lists the opposing teams success versus the Bears based on where they run the ball. (These runs are from the perspective of the OFFENSE, so a run listed as LEFT TACKLE is actually at the RIGHT defensive end.)

RNk TM LEFT END LEFT TACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHT TACKLE RIGHT END
~~5 CHI 3.52 9 1.45 1 3.54 11 4.83 28 2.48 9~~

13 CHI 3.70 12 2.85 4 3.71 14 5.01 29 3.14 11

The Bears really struggle to stop runs by the opposing Right Tackle (our Left side), I'm looking right at you Tommie Harris (and Harrison). With a dissapointing assist from Ogunleye and our revolving door at Strong Side Linebacker.

With this obvious weakness to our run game, does the opposition try to exploit it? Here's the opposing teams' run breakdown against the Bears plus the league averages:

Rnk Team RBCarries LEFTEND LEFTTACKLE MID/GUARD RIGHTTACKLE RIGHTEND
5 CHI 106 14% 14% 38% 17% 17%

                        149                 12%                 18%                    35%                    16%                       19%
x     NFL       x                      11%                 13%                  51%                   14%                      11%

The Bears opponents know the Bears' weakness and they are exploiting it. Tommie Harris (our whole D-line really) is killing us, he can't stop the run, and he has ZERO sacks.   Ogunleye and whoever plays SLB are not helping much either.

Now, let's look at how the Bears pass defense is doing.
On the FO team defense page, they list opposing WR's DVOA against the defense.
Against #1 WR's the Bears are ~~23rd~~ 30th, against #2's they are 14th, against 3's and 4's they are ~~3rd~~ 9th, against TE's they are 6th, against RB's out of the backfield they are ~~12th~~ 20th.

#1 Receivers we've faced are Calvin Johnson, Hines Ward or Santonio Holmes, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Ochocinco & either Housh or Burleson. Basically #1's are hurting us the most. Is this Bowman or Tillman? My gut says Bowman because Calvin Johnson did his damage while he was covering him. Greg Jennings did his while Vasher was covering him. Roddy White did his while no one was covering him. Ochocinco shredded them both. With good numbers vs 3's, 4's, TE's & Rb's, our linebackers, safeties, and nickel are doing an adequate job. Although, opposing TE's are doing a lot of damage in the RedZone vs us (see Atlanta & Detroit games). I think the Bears decision to put Tillman on the other teams' #1 going forward will lead to improvement in this area (maybe not). ~~I hope to see Tillman shadow Esteban Ochocinco all over the field on Sunday. I hope to see Tommie Harris on the sidelines, which is now happening.~~ What a difference a week makes, our D looked awful on Sunday and these stats obviously back that up. #1 Receivers are absolutely killing us. Our D-line is bad. Lucky for the Bears, Cleveland doesn't have a #1 receiver anymore. However, Arizona comes the weak after, look for Larry Fitzgerald to have a career day.

Offensive Line/RB Statistical Analysis

MuleTrain — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 21:09:32 -0000

I will attempt to do a little statistical analysis of the Bears running game so far to illustrate what we
are observing matches (or doesn't match) what the numbers/stats tell us. Numbers don't tell the whole story, but they can certainly teach us a lot about how our beloved Bears are performing...or under-performing.

All of the stats are taken from footballoutsiders.com. They have extensive descriptions about what their stats mean and how they get them. For individuals, DVOA, is defense-adjusted value over average, or simply put, what is the player's value on a per play basis. DYAR is defense-adjusted yards above replacement, or what is the total value over the course of an entire season.

Matt Forte is taking a lot of criticism, and he should. Out of the 34 running backs who have 50+ carries, he's ranked 33rd with a DYAR of -109 and ranked 32nd with a DVOA of -38.3%. Only Steve Slaton is worse, but he makes up for it by being number 1 in receiving for running backs, Forte is only 28th. Last season Forte ranked 38th as a runner, but was 2nd in receiving. He needs to step it up big time.

Forte certainly can't take all the blame for Chicago's running woes. Our Offensive Line has not been good. Rushing stats are used to come up with Adjusted Line Yards, a more detailed explanation of the stat can be read at footballoutsiders.com.

The Bears' O-Line is ranked 27th for Adjusted Line Yards. Our Power Success (runs on 3rd and 4th down with 2 yards or less for TD or 1st down) is 21st, and our Stuffed Rank (0yds or negative run plays) is a woeful 31st. We fare just a bit better in pass protection, by ranking 14th.

If we look at where the Bears are running the ball, we can start to point fingers (Omiyale getting a lot of heat).
The excerpt from the table is below, numbers are Adjusted Line Yards & then league Rank.

Rnk TM        LEFT END     LEFT TACKLE     MID/GUARD     RIGHT TACKLE     RIGHT END
27 CHI        3.91     18     2.55     28          3.48     26        3.42     26              3.72     16

The Bears really struggle to run the ball between the tackles, especially the left side. Duh. We already knew that, but there's some proof.

Another point to make is how often the Bears are running between the tackles compared to the rest of the league:

Rnk Team     RBCarries     LEFTEND     LEFTTACKLE     MID/GUARD     RIGHTTACKLE     RIGHTEND
28     CHI     105                 11%              13%                    55%                  9%                          11%
x     NFL       x                       11%              13%                    51%                 14%                        11%

Well, the Bears like to run up the middle where they don't have success. Yeah, Ron Turner.

Who do I take at pick 6?

MuleTrain — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 18:16:22 -0000

1 have the 6th pick in my draft (10 teams). Standard scoring league; 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 Flex (RB,WR, or TE), 1DST, 1K

Beacuse of the Flex and the ability to start 3 running backs any given week, running backs will probably be 8-9 of the 1st 10 picks and maybe 14-15 out of the first 20 picks in this league. By time 6 comes around AP, Forte, MJD, and Turner will no doubt be off the board. I'm trying to decide between Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, and Steve Slaton. They all have their obvious pluses, but have minuses too.

Plus:

Tomlinson: red zone carries, San Diego's cake division, SD is a strong team so lots of TD opportunities, proven track record, lots of receiving yards, safe pick.

Jackson: great talent, focal point of Rams offense, lots of receiving yards

Williams: what a year last year, Carolina is a heavy run-first team, Jonathon Stewart is banged up again so DW should see most of the carries

Slaton: great year with most of his damage coming in the 2nd half, lots of receptions, featured back in Houston

Minus:

Tomlinson: over 30, hurt last year, injuries piling up, that guy Sproles was pretty good in the playoffs, got paid, and will see lots of touches (you don't slap the franchise tag on a guy you don't really like)

Jackson: St. Louis kind of sucks, injury history

Williams: you don't draft a guy in the 1st round (J.Stewart) to sit on the sidelines, will lose touches to a healthy Stewart, does not get many receptions

Slaton: Houston raving about Chris Brown (backup) and is hinting that Brown could be the goal-line back, 1-year wonder?

What do you think?

Ian Thomsen SI.com Mock Draft

MuleTrain — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 16:49:12 -0000

Ian Thomsen SI.com Mock Draft

SI.com mock draft has the Bulls taking Ty Lawson at 16 and Wayne Ellington at 26...all tar-heel backcourt?

Will Hester make "the leap" to elite this year?

MuleTrain — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 16:13:36 -0000

Devin Hester's ability to become a legit #1 receiver has been and will continue to be debated until he proves it on the field this year. He's being given every opportunity to become just that, see WCG post here.

He also has an elite QB throwing to him, and a revamped O-line. John St. Clair gave up 9+ sacks last year...Pace only 2. Link here. Beekman (if he stays a starter) and Kreutz are good pass protectors. Chris Williams is supposed to be, so in short, our much better QB should have good pass protection, so our passing game should and will improve. What improvement will we see from Hester? Conventional wisdom (whatever that is) says 3rd year receivers make a leap from mediocre/average to good or great. I won't go into proving whether this is true or not, but lets look at Devin Hester compared to other WR's we all hope Hester becomes.

Hester is entering his 3rd year as a receiver (4th overall, but did not play WR his rookie year). I'm grabbing all my stats from CBSsports fantasy site.

He's listed at 5'11" 190 lbs. Some say that's a little small for a true #1 receiver. For this comparison:

Steve Smith CAR 5'9" 185
Wes Welker NE 5'9" 185
Greg Jennings GB 5'11" 197
Santana Moss WAS 5'10" 200
Laveranues Coles CIN 5'11" 193
Lee Evans BUF 5'10" 197

Last year Hester had 52 receptions for 665 yards, 12.8 average, 3 tds. He was on the field for 631 of 1,012 plays, 62.4 percent. He was targeted 91 times by Bears' QBs.

Steve Smith in year 2 had 54 recpts, 872 yds, 16.1 avg, 3 tds. In year 3: 88, 1110, 12.6, 7.

Wes Welker in year 3 (w/ Miami) had 67, 687, 10.3avg, 1td (targeted 76x). Year 4 (w NE): 112, 1175, 10.5, 8td (targeted 145x). Welker really never saw the field and had no catches in year 1 similar to Hester. His leap comes from switching to a real team with a real QB and some guy named Moss lining up next to him. But I think the comparison is still valid.

Greg Jennings in year 2: 53, 920, 17.4avg, 12tds (85 targets). Year 3: 80 recpts, 1292 yds, 16.1 avg, 9tds, targeted 140x.

Santana Moss in year 2: 30, 433, 14.4avg, 4tds. In year 3: 74 recpts, 1105 yds, 14.9 avg, 10 tds.

Laveranues Coles in year 2: 59, 868, 14.7 avg, 7tds. In year 3: 89 recpts, 1264 yds, 14.2 avg, 5 tds.

Lee Evans in year 2: 48, 743, 15.5 avg, 7tds. In year 3: 82 recpts, 1292 yds, 15.8 avg, 8 tds.

These under 6ft receivers all made significant leaps from their 2nd year at wideout to their 3rd. They averaged 51.8 receptions in year 2 for 754 yards and then jumped to 87.5 receptions for 1206 yds the next year. Lots of factors play a role in this for sure, but there are a lot of indications (to me at least) that Hester can make a similar leap this year.

Jay Cutler being the number 1 reason why.

Thoughts?

Rookie Performance by WhatIfSports.com

MuleTrain — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 13:53:00 -0000

We've talked ad nauseum about our draft picks and ranking them, but here is one more list to go over.

A little info about the source first. Paul Bessire is a stat/numbers guy. He runs the WhatIfSports.com website and provides FoxSports.com with their stat projections. He runs 10,000 simulations of each and every NFL game and turns those into game predictions and fantasy stat projections. On WhatIfSports you can run simulated games for just about anything. A real time sink is the DreamTeams game/program. Basically, you can create your own super team from historic seasons by historic players and run game simulations against other teams at various locations with whatever weather conditions you want. I created an all-time Bears team with the '86 defense, '06 special teams, Sayers and Payton in the backfield with Sid Luckman at QB, etc. I matched them up against an all-time Green Bay team and da Bears cleaned their clocks. Wasted a whole afternoon at work doing this (hope the boss doesn't figure me out). I also played the '85 Bears vs the '07 Patriots (a more worthy Pats team obviously) and our beloved Bears were triumphant again.

Anyway, whatifsports ran an article predicting the impact of the 2009 NFL rookies. More after the jump.

In order to generate predictions for NFL rookie performance:

For the preview, we project stats for every single player and team in the league by simulating each game on the schedule 10,000 times. Coming up with statistical inputs is relatively easy for veteran players as most tend to play to a predictable performance trend as they age and take on different roles. Rookies present the biggest challenge. To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factors collegiate performance, role in college, strength of collegiate competition, "measurables," likely NFL role, previous performance of a similar player in that NFL role for this coaching staff and trends of similar rookies in the past. This gives us the player's projected ratio stats (expected yards per carry, completion percentage, etc.), as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his new NFL team in his first year.

So the list has 3 Bears' rookies:

94. D.J. Moore, CB, Chicago (drafted 119th overall)

64. Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Chicago (drafted 99th overall)

23. Jarron Gilbert, DT, Chicago (drafted 68th overall)

He has these guys seeing plenty of playing time and in Gilbert's case, providing some valuable production. If this is true than JA deserves some major kudos for finding great value in this year's draft. As it affects the Bears, Detroit has Louis Delmas at #10 on the list and Stafford at #2. Minnesota has Percy Harvin at #4 on the list (uh-oh).