The speculation that Bill Polian is soon to be gone from the Indianapolis Colts in any official capacity is gathering steam. He has slowly turned more power over to the GM. (We’ll get to him in a minute.) I’m writing this to bring light to that GM’s apprenticeship, and the likely future of the Colts franchise.

Look at what we know. A too young GM that hasn’t “proven” himself to NFL observers. He’s a bit combative, and definitely opinionated. He believes that the talent of his team is poor, and he intends to get it fixed. His current coach is doing a poor job at best with the talent he does have. He’s going to go out and get a proven NFL coach. One that has been successful even without the best of talent. Together they will rebuild and redesign this team into a winner. This was the start of BILL Polian’s career in Buffalo.

Bill Polian was considered unqualified by most when he was hired by Ralph Wilson. However, he understood how to evaluate talent. He also understood that he didn’t know everything. Cue Marv Levy. Not many people in Indiana know, or remember, but Levy was a two time Grey Cup winning coach in Canada. He also was a solid head coach for KC among other NFL teams. The strike year essentially being his downfall in KC. When a young Bill Polian was looking for his first coach to make a mark, he went with a guy that had both success and experience as a head coach. For what it's worth, Levy had had a small break from coaching. Sound familiar?

You can’t blame Chris Polian for his father’s sins. We still have no idea if he is a genius, or idiot. We do know that he has grown up in and around professional football like very few people have the chance to do. Malcolm Gladwell (in Outliers) asserts that it takes 10,000 hours of dedicated practice at anything to become an expert. Regardless of whether you believe that exactly, it’s hard to argue that Chris certainly has a head start to getting experience over most other GM’s. He’s had years to watch a HOF GM build Superbowl teams in 2 different cities from the inside and don't forget the best start to an expansion franchise in NFL history.

How does all of this history relate to the future of the Colts? Simple. Chris is going to attempt to follow his father’s blueprint. You can almost simply cut and paste paragraph 2 here. Chris Polian had to see that his father made his mark initially with an experienced coach. One that would have an idea about players and provide input. Many see Bill Polian as a dictator here in Indiana. I don’t know if that is true or not. What I do know is that he began his career with a strong partner in Buffalo with Levy.

If Bill Polian leaves and Chris is the only Polian calling shots for the Colts. Look for him to hire an experienced, successful head coach. It makes no sense for him to choose a weak coach when he’s never flown solo. He’ll look for a solid co-pilot. As suggested earlier today, I believe it will be Jeff Fisher.

Fisher makes an incredible amount of sense. He knows the Colts personnel as well as any outsider could already know them. He also is already familiar with all of their most common opponents. Fisher was able to last 15 years in his last position. That is someone that is flexible and is willing to partner with different, and often DIFFICULT people. (Bud Adams anyone?) He has proven that he can be successful with difficult roster positions. (Does anyone else remember the salary cap hell the Titans endured?) Probably the most important part of his resume is his defensive expertise. I never remember being scared of the Titans outscoring the Colts. But his defenses have always played well in spite of often times being staffed with less talented players. That sounds like a perfect guy to pair with Manning. Add in the respect both Manning and Fisher have for each other, and throw in the #1 pick to secure probably the best QB prospect since #18 for good measure. If Fisher ever wants to coach again, he’ll probably not find a better situation.

Fisher doesn't need to go to the highest bidder. He's already made plenty of money already. Chris Polian doesn't need total control. He needs validation. Together, they would have a great opportunity to claim what both of them need to further their careers. A Super Bowl trophy, with their names attached to it.

[Promoted from the FanPosts. Well thought out article. -Matt]

With a 2 game lead on the field for Andrew Luck, his time with a horseshoe on his helmet is rapidly approaching. There is very little doubt that Luck will be drafted first by the Colts. However, common thought insists that Manning and Luck cannot, or should not co-exist. On the surface that makes sense. Once you look at all parties in this situation, I'm not completely sure it does. This article assumes that both parties in the matter have some choice. If you don't think Luck has some choice, just look at Peyton's little brother.

Why Luck wouldn't want to come to the Colts if Manning stays:

The first, best, biggest, and only (in my opinion) reason that Luck wouldn't want to come to the Colts is the idea that he isn't going to play right away if Manning is there. Football players egos being what they are, and their careers being as short as they are, this is understandable. If I had just spent the last 2 years being told I was the best college QB in the country I would want to play right now too. The only other reason to not want to come to the Colts was removed last summer with the new CBA. He's going to get essentially a set amount of money wherever he goes.

Why Luck would want to come to the Colts if Manning stays:

Lets start with something that needs to be considered when talking about Andrew Luck. This a VERY smart young man. He was the co-valedictorian in a well respected high school. He attends Stanford University where grades still matter for entrance. He stayed at Stanford even after his coach left because he knew he'd have a shot at a BCS title. This is a guy that isn't going to make a purely emotional decision. Luck is going to way all options before doing anything.

Looking at the Colts he sees a solid organisation with an owner committed to winning. The owner part can not be overrated. Whether you think the Polians are great or terrible, Jim Irsay has done a great job of securing the Colts franchise in this market and has a history of making decisions that have helped improve this team. In addition, the Colts as a team are used to winning. A lot. Luck wouldn't be going to a team that needs to learn how to consistently win, he'd get to step into a situation where winning is expected. That isn't a small issue to overcome in the NFL. There are reasons the top teams stay at the top.

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The number of people screaming at the Colts for not signing free agents is amazing to me.  I know on the internet it is tough not to come off as a smartass, but I'm actually asking a legitimate question.  

Who should the Colts have signed in FA thus far, at the number they have received?  In other words, who have the Colts missed on?

Starting with Defense....

NE's deal for Hainsworth is low risk, but I really don't feel like he fits on the team culture wise.  Perhaps I'm reading too much into that, but I don't think he'd do well with they type of culture here in Indy.  5 mil is a lot to pay him as well for a DT for the Colts.  If you look at the other DT's that have often been talked about, Coefield charged the Redskins the Dan Snyder tax and got 6 mil per.  The Mebane deal isn't bad, but again, 5 mil per is probably about 1.5 - 2 mil more per year than the Colts are going to be able to spend on a DT realistically.

Other defensive players, Nnamdi is a reasonable price, but is a.) not the type of corner the Colts typically use, and b.) they had a ton in Hayden when that deal went down.  I don't think they could have swung it because of that.  I can't track down Quintn Mikell's deal numbers right now, so not sure about that.  Eric Weddle as the highest paid S in the league?  I think the Colts can't match that.  Dawan Landry deal info wasn't available yet either.

On offense, I don't mind Ocho.  However, I think he doesn't fill a need for us.  He's at BEST he's a poor mans Reggie.  He doesn't have the speed of Collie, Gonzo, or Garcon.  Clark and Tamme both run better inside routes against better matchups (vs. LB's)  The only RB FA worth signing for the Colts they signed (Addai) because of his knowledge of the offense.  I supposed there are a couple of OL that you could justify, but it doesn't make much sense give that they are trying to bring CJ back as a G or RT and with the  2 rookies that they want to get on the field.

The only contract I know of that I say the Colts "missed" on was Okoye.  I would have liked to see him here for 1 year.  

FA's still available that the Colts could get?  Shaun Cody DT as a run stuffer.  Pat Williams in the same role if he can be coaxed out of retirement (rumor)  Donte Whitner as a 3rd S option.  Matt Light  as a temporary T for a year or 2 (played Left for NE but would be a good RT for less than Diem's money especially)  

Please respond and tell me what you think.  I would like to know.