SB Nation User Blog: NJDolphan68

Dear Dan Marino,

NJDolphan68 — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 19:06:23 -0000

Ok, I love the man.... there I said it. However.......

Quick Story: I'm sitting with my mom watching the tube, when Danny comes on with a NutriSystem commercial:

Mom: "Geez ...Marino is getting fat, puttin' on the weight huh?.."

Me: "What the hell are you talking about?... He looks fine. He actually lost a lot of weight......"

Mom "I'm just saying....."

Me: "You put on weight when you stop playing, what do you expect? You should see some of these slobs who retire. He looks fine. TV adds a few pounds, etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc "

:) Funny how I'm trained to constantly defend Dan , even when it comes to his looks...

I WILL DEFEND THIS MAN UNTIL THE DAY I DIE AND THEN SOME!

Dear Dan,

I love you today as much as I loved you when we first met. I remember when you first showed me the special way you hold your balls. You taught me how to scramble in the pocket and avoid the unwanted sack from behind. You always knew best when to pump, when to let it rip, and when to pull out. Oh the memories we shared.

Regretfully, I need to tell you that there is another in my life. Recently, I have become fond of a young man who reminds me so much of you. I am afraid that I have already fallen for him and our time may have already passed us by. You will always be my first and all others I ,can not help but, compare to you. That is the burden I shall forever carry with me.

His name is unimportant , and unknown even to opposing coaches, yet he is admired by all who see him play with the other men. Never forget the time we shared, for I will always love you.

P.S. I'm coming by to pick up my shit and don't even think about keeping my Journey CD's...and the swatch watch wall clock is mine too.

Forever yours,

passionate fan with revitalized mancrush on Chad Henne... aka NJDolphan68!

ATTENTION DICKS: THIS IS A FUNNY POST FOR STRAIGHT, BI AND GAY PEOPLE SO BE RESPECTFUL WITH YOUR COMMENTS!

Poll

Are you getting that "Special" feeling about Henne? (special football feeling that is)

He is definately special...maybe not the second coming, but special!

44 votes

Woah tiger, way too soon.. he's good but reserve judgement for now.

69 votes

Not feeling it...still worried about our QB of the future.

5 votes

118 votes | Poll has closed

Rex Ryan is so fat.....

NJDolphan68 — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 12:55:19 -0000

Ok ok,, all sensitivity aside. If you are involved with the Jets organization or simply mistakenly wear green on a football Sunday, you deserve ridicule to the nth degree. I HATE THE JETS, and so all Jet bashing is part of my life. As a caveat, I have nothing against overweight people, and some of my best friends/family are obeese. Note that I have nothing against Rex Ryan other than being a Jet and could care less that he's a chubby ole' chap. Also note that despite your physical condition or hyper sensitive nature, FACT= fat mama jokes are hillarious. As such, I offer the best of Rex Ryan Is So Fat... jokes.

Winner for the best joke will be allowed to add to his or her signature "Winner of the 2009 "Rex Ryan Is So Fat..." Joke-a-Thon"

In the spirit of trash-talkin and good humor.....Enjoy....

Classics:

Rex Ryan is so fat.... he uses a VCR as a beeper.

Rex Ryan is so fat....he went on a Seafood diet., and ate everything he saw.

Rex Ryan is so fat....he puts on his belt with a boomerang!

Rex Ryan is so fat....when he sits around the house, he sits "around" the house.

Rex Ryan is so fat....he plays hopscotch like this, "New Jersey, Virginia, Ohio, Illinois, ...."

Rex Ryan is so fat....when his kids climb his back, their ears pop.

Rex Ryan is so fat.... the back of his neck looks like a pack of hotdogs.

Rex Ryan is so fat....when he wears his Malcom X jacket, helicopters land on him.

Rex Ryan is so fat....the only thing attracted to him is gravity.

Rex Ryan is so fat....his yearbook picture was an aerial view.

Rex Ryan is so fat....when he hauls ass he has to take two trips.

Rex Ryan is so fat....he went to movies and sat next to everyone.

Rex Ryan is so fat....when he orders at a resturant he just says "ok"

Rex Ryan is so fat....he was baptised at Sea World

Rex Ryan is so fat....he fell in love, and broke it (?)

Rex Ryan is so fat....his cloths have stretch marks

Rex Ryan is so fat....they had to install speed bumps at the buffet.

Rex Ryan is so fat....when he dances the band skips

Rex Ryan is so fat....he was diagnosed with the flesh eating disease and the Dr. gave him 13 years to live.

Rex Ryan is so fat....is blood type is Ragu.

Rex Ryan is so fat....?

Well, who's got a good one !

History says, BYE BYE Big Tuna!

NJDolphan68 — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 19:09:04 -0000

via www.nopactalent.com

Ok, so I'm depressed over our 0-3 start, mostly because we could be 3-0. We can compete with anyone and IMO, even with Henne, can be a playoff team. I'm pissed that we have no legit "playmakers" and I'm pissed things haven't gone our way. What pisses me off most of all are quitters,,,and I'm watching closely.... We still have guys who remember 1-15 and they know what it takes each and every week. When the going gets rough we'll see who packs their bags.

Now,.. we have a lot of young talent and tons of upside..... We also have Bill Parcells... and you would think that would be one of the few resounding bright spots during a difficult season? However, I have become very leary and very concerned.

If you want to predict the future, historical models may be your best tools....

Let's take a look at the Big Tuna's unspoken past...

Personal: Goes to Colgate, Phillies recruit him, father says no to pro sports, so he quits Colgate and goes to Witchita. There he plays LB and gets drafted by the Lions but is released before the season. Quits pro-football and pursues coaching.

College Career: He coached at 8 schools in 14 years... not much loyalty there, averaging less than 2 years at each institute. But, college is ruthless and sometimes the only way to move ahead is to move on, understood. But 8 changes? Indecision at its finest if you ask me.

He had some success at FSU, talent diminishes, and he quits for Vandy. Takes Vandy to Bowl game against Texas Tech, looses, quits and jumps ship to Texas Tech the next year WTF?- ONly HC job at Air Force goes 3-8, quits and leaves for the NFL.

Pro Career:

Giants: 1979 accepts job as D-Coordinator then turns around and resigns. WTF?

Pats: A year later wants back in the league and is offered the LB coach job with the Pats in 1980

Giants: 1981 Is re-offered the Giants job, quits with Pats and accepts...

1983 after one full year as D-coordinator, succeeds Ray Perkins, who suddenly leaves, as Head Coach

* He benches Simms and gets burned for it with a terrible season behind Jay Breuner

1984-1985 committs to Simms. Giants emerge with good drafts. Simms had a poor year in 1985 and Bill likely lost interest in his development.

1986 Superbowl! but strangely tried to leave for Atlanta after the season. The League had blocked the move. Interestingly, and despite going 14-2, Simms had another subpar year. Atlanta had the #2 pick of the draft and a young team.

1987-1989 Giants continue as contenders, Simms improves.

1990 Superbowl! Simms is injured late in season. Jeff Hostetler closes the deal

* Parcells honored his contract and resigned after the superbowl. No trust in Hostetler? (Giants collapsed in 1991 and 1992 until Dan Reeves revives them in1993)

BUccs: 1992 Parcells agrees to be Buccs HC, then backs out! WTF? Testaverde was coming into his own.

Pats: 1993: Accepts HC job- inherits rookie Drew Bledose

1994-1995: Pats steadily improve

1996: Superbowl Loss! Bledsoe has poor game with 4 picks.

* Parcells argues with Kraft over personel/draft decisions and resigns again. Lost confidence in Bledsoe? (From 1997 to 2000 the Pats get worse and worse until Belichick revives them in 2001)

Jets: 1997: Bill fights out of a contract and quits the Pats. Jets recruit him and the program rebounds with vet Neil ODonnell

1998: Bill brings in Testaverde, Jets reach AFC Championship game!

1999: Jets loose Testaverde and go 8-8

* Parcells retires yet again ! No faith in continuing with Ray Lucas...(Jets get Testaverde back in 2000 and the franchise rides a rollercoaster with Herm Edwards)

Cowboys: 2003: Jerry Jones lures Bill to Dallas, makes playoffs for 1st time in 4 years under Quincy Carter

2004: Parcells favorite Carter is released for drug use and he recruits Testaverde with no luck

2005: Parcells tries with Drew Bledsoe, still no luck

2006: Bledsoe is replaced by Romo who lets Bill down in the playoffs.

* Parcells retires again!!! No faith in ROmo. (Romo turns out to be the real deal and Dallas has immediate success)

DOlphins: 2007: Bill chooses Miami over Atlanta to run team operations, Miami goes 1-15

2008: Bill gets his man in Pennington and wins the AFC East. Greatest turn-around ever!!!!

2009: Pennington is lost for the year.................................

Is it me, or is there a distinct pattern here? All the way back to when he was enrolled at Colgate, it always seems as though when the going gets rough, Bill walks . With each franchise it seems clear that each time he bailed is when his QB situation got shaky.

Well here we go again.... just don't be shocked if Bill walks on us after the season.

Maybe this analysis is unfair and it appears I'm labeling Bill a quitter, however history doesn't lie. I don't think Bill is a "quitter" per se, but I do think that if the situation does not benefit him, he'd rather excerise his right to be somewhere else. Fortunately for him, he's always had another opportunity. He is a great coach and a wonderful evaluator of talent and motivator of young men. He has helped the Dolphins immensly in only 2 years, however we need to be prepared for life after Bill, because it looks like it's coming sooner than later.

Everywhere Bill has been, the teams have faltered once he has departed. You would think that the teams' collapses would be directly related to Bill's departure, however it appears that he quits when his teams show concrete signs of disruption and potential failure. This is even evident through his college career, eventhough he was not the HC; Bill seems to know when to leave. The only notable mistake is when he abandoned Tony Romo and the Boys.

Now we'll see how he really feels about Henne and what he's helped build in South Florida.

Don't overlook the bright spots,,,,two in particular....!!!!!

via www.sun-sentinel.com

Poll

What happens next for Bill?

Bill stays for 3-4 more years to see us win the SB !!!

9 votes

Bill stays through 2009 and 2010. Trusts Henne and gets weapons for him.

31 votes

Stays this year and next, brings in a Vet to compete with Henne.

7 votes

Bails on us after the season.

9 votes

Stays through the season, but makes it clear he's retiring.

9 votes

Unexpectedly resigns mid-season.

2 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

FANTASY UPDATE 2.0- VITAL TIPS

NJDolphan68 — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 18:27:33 -0000

Back again,

Many of you have been asking tons of great questions and the advice is flowing. Us self-proclaimed gurus don't always have the right answers or predictions and many are in complete opposition. However, there is one thing in common with successful managers who win more often than not and that is dilligence.

I was going to respond directly to my man DRoyce, who had noted that FFL is all about LUCK anyways, but I had too much to say in a reply.

Here you go, Hope these tips help.

Sure luck is a variable,,, but surprisingly a small part, especially if you're playing over time. I've been involved with Fantasy Football since 1989, just about when it was born. I've been in a very competitive league for 10 years, ran a few myself, and have now joined yet another competitive league. Not to toot my own horn, but I've placed in the money about 65% of the time. When I call a league "competitive" it's because the managers all subscribe to the WORK that's involved. None show up with Fanatsy Magazines, asking "I'll take INDY's kicker" and you'll never hear, "Is that guy still playing?" or "Santonio Holmes is the best WR, did you see that catch in the Super Bowl?

FFL is fun, but there is a business side to it. Being dilligent and taking minimal risks, helps keep you in contention year after year. I've placed in last place before, sure, but I'll minimize the Luck factor by doing a few simple things:

1) track your players each week and monitor trends. You have to know when to give up on your draft picks too. If Tory Holt catches 3, 4, 3 after 3 weeks, he's probably not going to be averaging 6 or 7 catches that you want from your starting WR. You also need to know why, he could be hurt or a QB change, so be patient in those cases.

2) track players you'd like to pick up or trade for. You'll see unknowns have big weeks, but you need to understand why, don't rush to pick up JL Higgins from OAK just because he went 7-110 TD in week 2. Understand why, both starters might have been out or the defense was clearly giving-up a certain play.

3) Don't fill your reserves with all rookies and sleepers. You need guys who get stats for the bye-weeks...you need crummy starters, 3rd down backs and slot receivers. You need stats not potential on your bench. Luck in FFL is usually attributed to BAD Luck and injuries. Draft wisely, so that you don't put all your stock in your 1st 2-3 picks. Get P Manning as your QB, but don't settle on B Quinn as your back up. Get C Palmer/Hasselback/Cutler.

4) Like above, a solid bench accomplishes more than minimizing bad Luck, it reduces what your opponents have. Let the others guys have Quinn and at least you won't be beaten by Palmer. In a 12 team league, get 3 starting RBS and teams will be begging for a trade.

5) Mock drafts are great, but they never mimic your actual league. Get the last few years of drafts if possible. Color code the picks based on position and you'll see the same managers have the same tendencies year after year. Who getsTE in round 4, who drafts 3 RBS first, who likes rookies and sleepers early, who values DEF and K, who lets QB slide to get value later on... Then do a few mock drafts based on "What they would do" and you'll have a good game plan and better idea of what will be there for you.

6) Before you put in your roster, research each player and their matchups. It migt be a good idea to sit R Moss the week they play PIT and play B Edwards VS DET.

7) Be dilligent with injury reports. If your unsure if a player is playing, exhaust all measures to find out. The web has tons of free resources that are more up-to-date than CBS, ESPN, NFL, etc..KFFL for one is pretty good.

8) Never GIVE UP. Despite your 3-5 record, you could be the 3rd highest scoring team in your league. Things can turn very quickly.

9) The Draft is a fun time, but don't get yourself 8 beers in the hole after 2 hrs. Trust me, bad decisions will be made...

10) If your league has division games during the bye weeks, try to avoid drafting players who are OFF for those weeks. You don't want to loose division games! Your opponents are not likely keeping this in mind, so you'll have an advantage. This is not so easy, but if you're stuck between two players it REALLY helps. Keep in mind, usually more than half your games are in division.

11) Don't look at players individually, instead put them in buckets or tiers. You'll see the draft in a whole different light. You'll feel more confident about having to pick from a pool, rather than hoping a single player will be there for you. It also makes your decision precise and accurate, instead of fumbling around with time expiring.

12) I've covered strength of schedule prior, but for now you should keep two things in mind. SOS for the season and SOS for the playoffs. SOS for me pertains more to QBs and RBs because WRs can have a big game against tough defenses because the offense is forced to pass often or from behind. Take your draft boad and begin to note which players have "easy" schedules and "hard" schedules. You might want to move Gore above D Williams. Then look at your playoff weeks, usually 13-17 and decide who best helps you there. Maybe an RB with an "easy" schedule plays BAL, PIT and MIIN during the playoffs... maybe you should take the guy with the moderate schedule who plays KC, DET and OAK in the playoffs. This analysis is vital when making your draft charts but don't get carried away. Go with you gut first and then make SLIGHT adjustments for the schedule.

13) don't buy into hear-say. (DRoyce wanted to avoid C Johnson cause he's a "Fumbler") Get the IDEA that Cris Johnson is a fumbler out of your head quickly,. He had 300 touches and lost 1 fumble... That's all you need to be concerned with. He is a stallion and will be doing his thing for the next 5-6 years. Fumbling can be corrected- and usually is for a guy with his ability. And don't listen to the other managers. Draft talkers will try and dupe you into picking guys they don't want or even make little of recent injuries etc etc.

14) Also, when you make your buckets and tiers of players, make them buy position and then a top 150. Your value really depends on your scoring system so don't rely on a draft board from fantasy magazine or online sources because they do not cater to your specific league. You may value WR higher than QB because they can get you more points. A typically league values RB the most, QB, WR, and TE, K and DEF about the same. Some leagues, which I like, use cumulative points for all your players' stats.

Best of "Luck" with your drafts! :)

(fantasy guys don't forget to REC these to keep the treads alive)

FANTASY UPDATE 1.0

NJDolphan68 — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 13:39:43 -0000

Hey Guys... I wasn't getting a huge response from my fantasy musings so I've scaled back.

I didn't want to leave the few fantasy enthusiasts in here hanging, so I'll offer some "condensed " notes for the up-coming drafts.

Hope this helps....

* Projected rounds assume a Standard 12 team 20 round draft.

Players to avoid:

1)Clinton Portis: I struggled with him b/c I think he's great. I just feel that he's not a 1st or high 2nd round talent and he represents a bigger risk than reward. His career has peaked and 1200 yds is a stretch. It is also not worth handcuffing him to Betts. You're better off with Slaton, B Westbrook/McCoy(or Dunn) or S Jackson/A Pittman or Addai/D Brown or R Brown/R Williams or M Barber/ F Jones or C Johnson/ L White

2) Eddie Royal: Eddie is also a good player and deserving of being drafted, just not as a #2 WR in the 5th round. His numbers will come down with Orton or Simms, so draft him closer to 7th round or later.

3) Matt Cassell: He'll go much higher than he should. He still needs to prove that he was not a product of "the System". With a core of ancient WRs, mediocre TEs and RBs, I can't see much fantasy success this year for Matt.

4) Lance Moore: Buyer beware. Lance was a fill in guy and his stats represent the losses of Colston, Shockey, Bush, and Meacham. I have no indication that he's solidified the #2 spot and will produce equally. Remember Meacham was the #2 and is working with as a starter once again. With Dv Henderson also in the mix and Shockey back, don't overvalue Moore.

5) Darren McFadden: I really like McFadden but not in the high 3rd -4th rounds. His success may go the opposite of OAK's. If OAK is winning, M Bush will prove to be a big part of the reason and Al Davis will be sure the playoffs is the priority. If they're loosing, he'll want to play the players he's paying big$ to justify the expense. McFadden is good, but Bush is a monster talent than needs majority carriers. Factor in Fargas who will get his 500yds and you're left with a poor man's Reggie Bush, and that's not saying too much... right now anyways.

6) Beanie Wells: I generally don't like fantasy rookies, but this guy scares me to death. It would be nice to have the starting RB in one of the NFL's best offenses, but Hightower has something to prove. He's improved from last year and will likely hold off the injured Wells. Also, Wells is not a great compliment to Hightower so he'll likely be a pure backup.

7) Derrick Ward: It's hard to argue that TB won't play someone they're paying big bucks to, but Earnest Graham is still the starter? Factor in a healthy Cadillac Williams and Ward will struggle to be the goto guy. Be careful not to draft him as a pure #1.

HM: Brett Farve QB MIN, Lendell White RB TEN, Roy Williams WR DAL

Mid Round gems:

1) Carson Palmer QB CIN: Everyone is sleeping on him. Despite his resurgence in popularity via Hard Knocks, Palmer is poised to rebound from injury and return to form. IMO he has comparable weapons to 2006 and the O-Line is just as questionable as it was then. You can avoid QB until the 5th round and nab Palmer. Don't count on him week -to-week and try and platoon him with a solid #1 for when he plays PIT and BAL. You could partner him with Hasselback, Delhome, Garrard or Campbell and you'll be just fine.

2) Cedric Benson RB CIN: Like Palmer, Benson has lots of talent. He played well enough last year to convince me he'll be fine, especially behind a line that can only get better. Expect more TDs(8+) and 1150+yds. A solid #2 that you can get in the 6th-8th round.

3) Tory Holt WR JAX: He'll be one of the last few #1 WRs to go, maybe round 5-6. He has a veteran schedule and is not being over worked. Camp reports note he is as fresh as ever. Why I like him is for 2 reasons; Garrard, who is decent, finally has a true #1 to play with and Troy Williamson is impressive as a deep guy, which will free Holt from double team. Expect 80+ catches for sure.

4) Felix Jones RB DAL: Don't feel bad about pulling the trigger on Jones too early. If he's there in the 4th or 5th consider him. I can not see him sitting behind Barber much longer. He'll definitely be a 10 carry back, but probably be 17 by mid-season. With his big play potential, we could see a few 11 carry 100+ yd games.

5) Percy Harvin WR MIN: He's moved from sleeper to mid round target for most teams. I feel good about him in the slot with Farve on consistent 3 step drops. With Berrian always getting hurt, he could get a fair share or opportunities. Farve's arrival also helps raise the stock of TE Shiancoe.

6) Justin Gage WR TEN: Mr. Consistency. Gage will slide way down and prove to be a solid #2 or very good #3. Kerry Collins has a good synergy with him and they'll find more opportunities working together once again.

7) Deshaun Jackson WR PHI: McNabb and Philly have struggled to find a feature WR even when TO was in town. IMO they found one, and McNabb will do everything to get the ball in Jackson's hands and as often as possible. Expect more slot action and less RB opportunities in the passing game. This will also preserve Westbrook more.

HM: Donnie Avery WR STL(injury), Knoshown Moreno RB DEN, Donald Brown RB IND, Kevin Smith RB DET, Santana Moss WR WAS, Jerico Cotchery WR JET, Vincent Jackson WR SD, Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT, Jeremy Shockey TE NO, Zach Miller TE OAK, John Carlson TE SEA, Owen Daniels TE HOU, Ken Walters WR HOU, ray Rice RB BAL

Sleepers:

1) Brandon Pettigrew TE DET: Matt Stafford will start and Pettigrew could end up pushing Calvin Johnson as the goto guy in Detroit. (Unlikely) He is as advertised and will be a great late pick up for keeper leagues. The hype is low out of Detroit, he'll make a good backup TE.

2) Austin Collie WR IND: Wayne, Clark and Gonzalez will all get their catches, but don't forget how much Manning loves his #3, he can 50+ catches to offer and Collie is a favorite over Garcon to be that guy. He's servicable as a backup WR and could be a gem is Wayne or Gonzo miss time.

3) Earl Bennett WR CHI: Never mind D Hester, he is still developing (see also Ginn) Bennett and Culter already know each other and Bennett is making a strong push to be the goto guy.

4) Edge James RB SEA: I was looking closely at Julius Jones. Why was SEA reluctant to bring in any competition? Jones was decent in DAL and maybe SEA had confidence in him? I was looking at him a s solid #3 RB maybe a sleeper #2, then Edge was signed. Edge is a better back than Jones and I have to assume at some point he'll take over full time, especially if SEA struggles and has to pass more, they'll need Edge's pass-blocking and receiving skills. I exepct SEA to struggle. SEA has a good rushing schedule for fanasty playoffs!

5) Matt Leinart QB ARZ: With ARZ and Warner's success, everyone has forgotten about Leinart. Keeper leagues should seek him out late in the draft and he's definitely a handcuff for Warner in all leagues. Warner is not getting any younger and it's only a matter of time before injury or the Leinart controversy resurfaces. How can you not have success in that system... Where's Neil Lomax?

6) Jermichael Finley TE GB: Rodgers had success with Donlad Lee last year, but Finley offers so much more. He'll be worked in and by season's end will secure himself as a featured weapon with GB at TE.

7) Brian Robiskie WR CLE: Like I said I don't like rookies, but this guy is the most Pro-ready WR of the lot. Nicks, Barden and HeywardBey are all good options but Robiskie has not disappointed. IMO B Edwards is a little overrated and without Stallowrth and especially K2, I expect more balls to get to the #2 and #3 WRs. Expect Robiskie to leap Patten as the #2 during the season.

HM: Brad Celek TE PHI, Dwayne Jarret WR CAR, Michael Clayton WR TB, Michael Bush RB OAK, Brandon Scott RB CIN, Josh Morgan WR SF, Keenan Burton WR STL, James Davis RB CLE

QUICK NOTES:

QB: If your not getting Brees, Brady, Manning, Rivers, or Rogers then make sure you get Schaub, McNabb, Warner, Romo or Palmer as your #1. Otherwise, let QBs slide and platoon a solid combination later.

RB: RB by committee is really clouding this year's options. Put a high value on the true #1s that are getting 20+ carries a game. Make sure you handcuff your big guns- Peterson/C Taylor- Forte/K Jones - LT/Sproles etc. Also get backup RBs, especially starting #1s, because you don't want to give up on bye weeks and they're invaluable trade options for teams in need. BU RB is more valuable than your #2 WR in most leagues.

WR: It's always wiser to get a big producer early and platoon 3rd tier guys/sleepers for your #2/#3 slots, because you'll find tons of FA WRs who will become starters from injury.

TE: Like QBs, if your not getting one of the big 5, Clark, Whitten, Gates, Gonzo- then let them slide. You can get great value with Cooley, Olsen, Daniels, Carlson, Winslow, Keller, and Shiancoe much later.

K: Longwell, Crosby, Vinatieri, Gotskowski, Bironas, Akers, Kaedling, Elam, Rakers, Graham, then everyone else. Don't be the first wait until #7 is picked then get a good one.

DEF: After PIT, MIN, TEN, GIA and BAL there is a log jam at the second tier. Also factor in Specials if they count for your DEF because the pool will get even bigger. MIA JET and GB are good late options.

Good Luck!

R.I.P. TJ Turner

NJDolphan68 — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 13:15:31 -0000

R.I.P. TJ Turner

Michael Vick - Forgive, Forget or F'in Disgusted

NJDolphan68 — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 15:57:51 -0000

I'm really sorry to continue with the Mike Vick Saga...but I've really been struggling with how I feel about him. Maybe you can help me make up my mind.

When Vick was at V-Tech, I instantly anointed him a football god. And still to this day, after seeing what I've seen him do on the big stage, I still believe he is one of the game's greatest talents of all-time. Being a dog lover and compassionate human aside, killing animals for "fun" just does not sit well with me. I can appreciate the fact that some behaviors are learned and I and understand that certain cultures and communities have their "traditions" and "ways of doing things" but there is something very wrong with killing for no good reason.

If you're a hunter, then you better be hunting for food, clothing, or to protect your home and crops, but if your hunting just to collect a new set of horns for your mantle, than you're no better than the animals you hunt. In fact, I'm not sure if any animals kill for fun (or sport) except our F'd up species. Why must we yearn for that rush of the kill, the power of control, dictating death with the squeeze of trigger, or imposing our will to a weaker species? Sounds like a mental illness to me, more than "just something people do". If there's no defense or especially no direct competition, it's not a sport. (yeah I know I probably touched a nerve with some of you,, I fight with my gun-happy uncle and his bullshit excuse for killing deer for a measly 5 links of venison sausage.... I think he just has a small dick and killing big animals makes himself feel all better inside)

I digress....

When the Mike Vick story had broke, I just went through one of the most traumatic nights of my life. I have an America Bulldog named Rosie. She normally looks a bit meaner, especially when she pants and her face reveals her pitbull genes. As such, people are usually scared of her and it makes me so mad that they prejudge her. She's an 80lb ball of muscle and love.

This is Rosie...

via photos-b.ak.fbcdn.net

Rosie is one of the most amazing animals I have ever seen or known. It is almost disrespectful to call her an animal. Sure, she can do any trick, and yes she loves unconditionally like any dumb dog, but Rosie is a little different. For those of you who have let dogs into your lives, you know what I mean. I know exactly what she wants by looking into her eyes and more importantly she knows exactly what I'm thinking and feeling by looking into mine.

It is a crazy bond that occurs; it's a bond with nature, God, life, your inner being, .... it's really hard to explain, but she completes me...(and no I never put peanut butter on my nuts :) ) Anyway, Rosie also served as a therapy dog at an adult facility for mentally ill patients. When I arrived with her, there were droolers, head shakers, head bangers, mumblers and so on.. by the time we would leave... the brightest faces were filled with their missing senses and youthful personalities.. The bonds Rosie made and the reactions we received were nothing short of miraculous.

And so..... I was having some work done in my house and I mistakenly gave these contractors the freedom to come and go. Now Rosie loves every animal and every person she has met, except for 2 guys. One I know personally and she had every right to growl and back away from him. The other was one of the contractors who was a raging alcoholic. Not sure if he ever tried anything funny with Rosie or hit her, or whatever, but one day Rosie darted form the house and he pursued after her. She ran further and further until she was lost. I was called from work and for 5 hours I scoured the woods and drove aimlessly screaming for my baby girl.

I knew she would eventually go to someone, but was very afraid of who that person might be. Dog fighting does have an underground in NJ and dog napping is not uncommon. She was nowhere to be found and I couldn't imagine her wandering off so far. I thought about the worst thing that could have happened. I feared that some asswipe would lure her into their ride and bring her into the dark world of dog fighting. She would be the perfect sparing partner of a champion pit, because she would offer no resistance. She would also be a perfect ringer, because people might actually bet on her based on the looks, no knowing she wouldn't last a second.

It was all bad, and I nearly threw up crying into my steering wheel. I heard the local ambulance dispatched twice and I followed, hoping that they may lead to Roise, alive or dead. Even if she were dead, I could live with the fact that she would be subjected to the cruelty of man. I couldn't imagine such a wonderful girl, captured, tortured, attacked, and left for dead. I thought about her expecting me to save her. I cried to think that she would loose all trust in me, because I abandoned her. I know some "people" and instantly made up a mental game plan on how to infiltrate the dog fighting world to find my Rosie, or the people responsible. What I would do to them would be unthinkable and un-writable (yeah even for me...) Ya see, dog-fighting is not just for the dogs bred into that world, it extends much further and I feared that it had just reached me.

Just before nightfall. I received a callback from the police. Rosie was found off a busy highway a few miles away. She was in the care of some good people. She wore off all the pads from her paws and was in great pain... I found her, and was never more thankful in my life.

Now,,,,, all my projected hate had been on someone, or something, just like Vick. Sure dog fighting had become a very sensitive issue for me, where I had never really thought about it much prior to Rosie getting lost. Vick was brought down and I discarded the two jerseys I owned; including a really nice V-Tech throwback, which I use to wipe down Rosie's muddy paws with today. All the admiration was lost. All the 1st round fantasy picks meant nothing. All the wondering about where Vick's legacy would end up, were fleeting thoughts. I hated him and all that he stood for.

Fast forward two years, and now I question whether he really participated or just funded the dog fighting operations. Whether he was really misled by the horrible people that surrounded him. Whether or not he learned to appreciate how special dogs and other intelligent animals really are...whether or not he even cares. And why do I even care, he's just a football player and just another ex-con.. But I do...I still respect him as a football player and my fraternal bond with all players is preventing me from dismissing him entirely. I am really torn.

When I'm watching him roll out of the pocket once more while making two of the most skilled athletes in the world look second rate, do I cheer for him to blow out his knee in horrific fashion or do I offer a kind smirk of appreciation for his ability.

Poll

What will you think, while Vick is back doing his thing?

Who cares? He's an average QB, let his carreer die in mediocrity.

11 votes

Watching both his knees snap backward would be a joy.

3 votes

Everyone deserves a second chance, good for him.

17 votes

Who cares what he did or does off the field? When he plays it's about football.

1 votes

If he gets injured, he should be drowned in the same manner as his dogs.

8 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

UNMASKING FANTASY FOOTBALL 1.2: The RBs DRAFT BOARD

NJDolphan68 — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 20:10:56 -0000

Ok fellow Fantasy geeks...

I have applied my "Real Strength of Schedule" and now have my first RB depth chart.... Sure players will move up and down in the coming weeks, but this is my start and I offer some comentary for each.

****Remember to keep these guys in buckets so you can better manage the talent available. There rankings are not as important as the bucket they're in.

Also keep in mind that "values" will differ based on your league's rules. My rankings assume that you'll have a big league 10-12 teams, 3 starting RBs, good point values for receiving and "other".

Enjoy....

ELITE:

1.Adrian Peterson: He's inherited the title as best back and with a good defense he'll get his shots. Looking at a very good TD year.

2. Clinton Portis: After an off year, you have to expect a rebound from one of the game's most talented players. Besides, WAS has the easiest schedule VS the run... Though he will drop on most boards, don't sleep on Clinton.

3. Ladanian Thomlinson: Just like Portis, he's back and on a playoff team. This may be his swann song. Don't let him pass, SD has a favorable schedule VS run defenses. Phillips will not allow 8 in the box, so that should help LT.

1st ROUNDERS:

4. Michael Turner: Folks, the Burner is not a flash in the pan. He's for real and with the respect Ryan commanded, he got plenty of room to rumble, and you might even see some more customary big runs this year. Atlanta has a tough schedule vs The Run, but I think ATL's offense is good enough to level the field.

5. Brian Westbrook: Lashawn McCoy is just what the doctor ordered. The ability to spell Westbrook will make him more productive and keep him healthier. I have a feeling he'll move down my chart by the season, but he's still Mr. Everything for Philly.

CUSP:

6. Matt Forte: It's hard to ignore his productivity and now with Cutler on board, you can expect that there will NOT be a Sophmore slump. I like Matt here, but I'd be hesitant of a 1st round selection.

7. Ronnie Brown: The injury threat always bumps Ronnie deep into the the 2nd round or worse. With an improved offense and an aging Ricky Williams, you would think that Ronnie's workload would be on par with the top backs in the league. He has the talent and would be an interesting gamble as a 1st rounder.

2nd ROUNDERS:

8. Frank Gore: SF has a favorable schedule and also against Run defenses. Even if they get moderate play from their QBs you can expect a healthy Gore to be Mr. Everything. Gore will slide , but keep him in this bucket.

9. Stephen Jackson: Stephen is a beast and when he finally played last year he played very well. If STL can get the passing game going, Stephen will be the benefcator. The improved O-Line will also help (yes,even minus Pace)

10. Willie Parker: Many beleive that PIT will be utilizing the pass even more this year. Like Turner and Westbrook, you're really buying into Parker's big play potential. If Mendenhall can regain his form, Willie's days as the bell-cow back might be over.

11. Thomas Jones: He worries me because, despite the Jets emphasis on the run, it's a lot to ask of Sanchez to keep 8-9 guys out of the box. 3 yards here and there might weight heavily on Jones. Washington and Greene may end up stealing away carries.

12. Marshon Lynch: He will slip because of his suspension, but he'll be a huge asset after week 4. Even with Owens and Evans, there's no questioning that Lynch will get his 25+ carries.

POTENTIAL RISERS/FALLERS

13. Maurice Jones-Drew: Like last year, J-Drew is a preseason favorite. He could be an early second, but he'll need a great year to really gain 1st round consideration. I'm not impressed with JAX, but Jones is very solid.

14. Reggie Bush: It's real hard to let Bush slide, especially if your league values receiving and special teams. Bush has re-dedicated himself and understands what needs to be done. His only obsticle is Pierre Thomas, and loosing carries to him. If you grab a solid back in RD 1, Bush is a nice complement.

15. Marion Barber III: Marion is sliding on my board for two main reasons; he did not look sharp last year, Choice and Jones will compete for carries and any slump by Barber may see him replaced. Felix Jones is coming back from injury and is, IMO, the better back. DAL has a tough schedule vs Run Defenses

16. Ryan Grant: I could see Grant ending up in the top 5 by the end of the season. After disapearing last year, you have to remember he is a solid every down back on a pretty good offense. He'll grind out a good year.

17. Kevin Smith: He'll loose some ground because he plays for DET, but he is very skilled and DET will be better. Like with Sanchez, Stafford will need to push Calvin Johnson and Pettigrew to get defenders out of the box.

18. Brandon Jacobs: With the departure of Ward, you would think that Jacobs will finally get his 20+ carries a game, right? Well maybe not. Bradshaw and Ware are still highly regarded in NY and Coughlin has a system that is working , for now. Buf if Jacobs can get more carries,,, holy Christ he's good....

On the BUBBLE:

19. DeAngelo Williams: He and Johnathan Stewart are both very good. IMO Stewart is more of the full-time back, but Williams will remain in that role for now. As long as he does, expect a solid year.

20. Steve Slaton: Slaton could end up a top 10 back this year. I am hesitant to make him a 2nd Rounder, but he would be a nice gamble.

21. Fred Taylor: NFL coaches and players contend that Taylor is one of the greatest backs they have ever seen. The problem is he can't stay healthy. I'm not sure that NE's offense will need him to carry the load, so I'm expecting greatness only in moderation.

22. Jamal Lewis: Strange things afoot in CLE, but Jamal might have one decent year left. CLE has a favorable rushing schedule and he is a questionable 2nd RB but good 3rd RB on your team.

23. Joseph Addai: Really on the fence with Addai, as IND shakes up their offense a bit. He's still the main rusher on a very good offense. Solid #2 back

24. Darren McFadden: The jury is still out, however he really lit it up when he got the carries last year. OAKs OTs are not very good and MIA fans are happy to see Sataele go. He'll have most value as a Reggie Bush- Wildcat type. Michael Bush is a better runner and Fargas will also get his opportunities.

25. Larry Johnson: IMO, this year's sleeper. He'll slide to the 4th round and beyond, but remember this, when he played last year, he was VERY good. A full year could put Larry back into the fold as one of the leagues top rushers.

LATE GEMS:

26. Derick Ward: No one has seen him get the full load, but he has shown enough to get recognition. He might break in slowly which can hurt his stats, surrendering carries to Earnest Graham.

27. Chris Johnson: TEN loves to run and they have a great schedule Vs run defenses. Lendell White may have lost his share of carries by slumping last year when Johnson was hurt. Johnson is better, but Lendell will get his share.

28. Julius Jones: SEA must trust him an awful lot. I don't, but he's the starter on a team with little depth.

29. Cedric Benson: Benson played really well last year. I like him with 20+ carries and Palmer back healthy.

BACK UPS:

30. Willis McGahee: He's still BAL starter, but he's hard to draft with Leron McClain and Ray Rice splitting carries. McClain will likely be the odd one out, loosing carries to Rice.

31. Jonathan Stewart: Will have a hard time supplanting DeAngelo Williams as the feature back, but is a value back up and will get some decent numbers.

32. LaMont Jordan: DEN, Many Believe Knowshon Moreno will get the nod in DEN, but you have to trust the veteran first.

33. Pierre Thomas: Expect some sucess from Thomas running between the tackles, He will push Bush for playing time all year long. He will likely be the starter, whatever that will mean...

34. Bennie Wells: A forgotten man on draft day, may find himself in the driver's seat of the NFL's most exciting offense. My favorite rookie pick/chance.

WILDCARDS:

35: Lendell White: Will get carries and TDS and will be on standby for fulltime duty should Johnson slip up.

36. Michael Bush: Is too good not to play. May replace McFadden as the feature back.

37. Darren Sproles: Has shown enough to earn playing time. With SD success, he may be seeing a great deal of time.

38. Tim Hightower: He's a bull, but maybe not the perfect fit for ARZ offense. I like Wells to win the starting job. A good pick for TD leagues.

39. Lashawn McCoy: Can Brian Westbrook stay healthy,,,history say no. McCoy is a rookie worth having.

BACK POCKET:

40: Ricky Williams: May get less reps with a healthy Brown and emerging Cobbs, but if Brown should falter....?

41: Ray Rice: Looking to supplant McGahee as the starter and future.

42. Leon Washington: Patiently waiting for Thomas Jones to break down.

43. Amad Bradshaw: 07 Bradshaw is a good backup to have,, not so sure about the 08 one though.

44. Knowshon Moreno: DEN rookie might be the best of the class, keep eyes open in preseason

45. Rashad Mendenhall: Forgotten b/c of his injury and b/c of Parker's return. Nice potential here..

46. Felix Jones: Coming back from injury, could be DAL's best back, just needs an opportunity.

47. Jamal Charles: Waiting for Larry Johnson to screw up...

48. Ledell Betts: Mr Backup and always a valuable reserve, especially if you have Portis

49. Dominic Rhodes: May only have value for the first 3 weeks, and will compete with Fred Jackson for playing time

50. Peyton Hillis: Moreno or Young? What about Hillis...? Showed he can get it done. L Jordan odd man out?

51. Mike Bell: Vet is looking good so far and can spell the smaller Slaton for some valuable reps.

52. Mike Hart: All eyes on Addai to impress, else IND will get the young kid some carries.

53. Earnest Graham: Similar back to Ward. An experienced vet, could earn starting job because of it.

54. Kevin Faulk: The ageless one will get opportunities with Taylor getting rest. L. Maroney also a possibility!

55: Justin Fargas: Gets stats no matter who he's competing against for carries

56. Laron McClain: Flash in the pan? Will still get carries, maybe enough goal-line to be valued.

57. Jerius Norwood: Like Betts will see plenty of time spelling Turner.

SLEEPERS:

58. Donald Brown: Talented rookie could pass Hart and maybe Addai as IND's featured back by season's end.

59. Chester Taylor: Perhaps the most valuable injury backup out there, besides he's not bad.

Stay Tuned..... QBS coming up next.....

UNMASKING FANTASY FOOTBALL 1.1- Real Strength of Schedule

NJDolphan68 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:02:53 -0000

When the "professionals" compose their "Strength of Schedules" they properly take into account the prior year, however they do so to a fault. For each passing year in the NFL, you can throw out the prior year's successes and failures because each year truly yields different teams. There are few examples of successful rosters which managed to stay together for a couple years in a row and even less which operated the exact same manner. As much as teams change internally, they adapt to the ever changing teams around them. Because of the immense level of talent in the NFL, the margin between wins and losses is almost unnoticeable. This is more so the case in today's NFL where parity rules supreme; teams rise from the ashes as quickly as fall from the podium.

And now, without further interruption... I present the "Real" Strength of Schedule

My SOS is designed to help move players up and down my war-room draft boards accordingly. The information below is my first run at the SOS and things will change a bit until the beginning of the season. A couple injuries or Free Agent signings will alter things. I did include Favre with the Vikings...(moderate improvement :)

RULE #3: You'll hear about the hot teams and trendy picks. There is some merit however you will need to convince yourself. By looking at things through the SOS, you can make a strong case as to why a player or team should expect success, or not.

Rather than overwhelm everyone with rankings and stats, I'll note some of my initial observations:

1) Miami Dolphins:

On paper, Miami is regarded as having one of the, if not the, hardest schedules. My SOS shows Miami having the 10th hardest schedule, close to 11,12, and 13 which puts them just outside midway. For all rankings, they are in that similar range with nothing alarming. Most notable is that they have the 10th hardest schedule against the rush. This concerns me with the question marks in the center of our defense, mainly at the nose. Overall, don't let the hype get to you because Miami is really in control. Also, because of the parity you can expect many of the "best" teams from 09 to slip some. (ATL, IND, PIT, NE, etc) The schedule is not as hard as advertised and Miami really controls its own destiny in 2010.

2) Team Rankings: Notables include:

A) Washington's Offense is close to top and they have the 10th easiest schedule VS defenses. Campbell may have his breakout year after all and look for Portis to rebound strong.

B) San Francisco is actually peeking into the top ten for both Offense and Defense. Their SOS shows that they have the 9th easiest schedule and that the Offenses they face are the 9th easiest. If SF can play some defense and if Gore can return to form, there may be some truth in SF making a playoff push! It doesn't even matter who is playing QB because this is a run first team and you're gonna be hard pressed to stop em'.

C) Green Bay also popped in around #10, with surprise strength in defense. Considering their move to a 3-4, I don't see the switch as having much of a backlash as it would because of their talented personel. SOS suggests that they have the 5th easiest schedule against Offenses and are 11th overall. Hmm, don't sleep on Green Bay. Ryan Grant needs to earn his paycheck this year.

D) NO is worthy of note because like Washington, they have a top 10 offense playing against a weak defensive schedule. This could be Reggie Bush's real opportunity to be a full-time contributor. They only problem with NO is that there mediocre defense is facing some tough offenses.. End result = Shoot Outs!!

E) San Diego's offense is also set for another big year against weak defenses. Look out for Vincent Jackson to have a very strong year. LT worries me, but Sproles has proven valuable.

F) CHI, BAL, PHI and MIN all have solid run defenses. They are all facing poor rushing offenses this year. That says a lot right there. BAL and MIN will cash in with their pass rush ability. CHI and PHI will battle the pass all year long.

3) Easiest Schedules:

A) Cleveland and Kansas City both have "easy" schedules. If either team can show more than improvement on paper you could see 8-8 or even 9-7 from these guys. Cassell is stepping into a perfect situation as KC faces some easy defenses against the pass. Look out for Bowe to explode this year, and don't sleep on Larry Johnson. When he played last year, he played well- real well. I am more concerned about Cleveland, expecting them to go with Quinn. He'll be on a learning curve and you can't expect too much more from Jamal Lewis VS 8 in the box.

B) Each year we see the mighty fall- PIT, PHI and BAL may not have to worry. They also have "easy" schedules and that is a big concern for the league. A favorable schedule may help Flacco survive his sophomore year. A favorable schedule may also help Willie Parker stay healthy. Philly could end up the class of the NFC East after the smoke clears. McNabb is a great 2nd or 3rd round QB as he falls for some reason every year on draft boards.

4) Hardest Schedules:

A) Some mighty teams are in trouble. ATL, DAL, and ARZ to name a few. Everyone is predicting Ryan to have a sophomore slump, but I'm not. I think he'll be fine but Atlanta's talent may not be reflected in their final record. Not only does Atlanta face the best offenses, they face the best defenses too. Dallas is once again all talent on paper. I do feel that the early part of the season will be tell-tale for the Boys, If they lose early they might fall apart, otherwise they could get stronger vs their tough schedule. Arizona, aside from all the off-season drama, is poised to be one of those flash in the pan teams. Warner can not continue his high level of play, though having the weapons he does will buy him some time, maybe half a season. If Leinart has to come in, the season is done, as he will need to get "adjusted". I am not confident in Highsmith or Wells carrying the team and it may all come down to the defense.

B) DET, STL, TB, and CAR are all in trouble. They also have hard schedules. Unlike the mighty, they all have serious concerns. The Buccs are facing the toughest schedule VS offenses. Considering the Tampa D is a shell of it's former self, I can't see TB getting over 500. I think Ward will make an impact, but I have little faith in their QB options or general passing threat. DET is DET and though many expect 3-5 wins, it will be tough to get 2. I wish them well. STL and CAR are in similar positions as they do have talented teams. Each may only go as far as their aging and injured QB go. Bulger may find some promise in a rejuvenated Stephen Jackson and a rising star in Avery. Despite the likely offensive success, they may be loosing games 35-28. Carolina still has a great running game and Steve Smith, but they like ATL face the toughest defenses and offenses. Carolina could be a surprise with a few hard earned close wins.

5) Bubble Teams:

The running game does still rule the NFL, but most rushing stats are misleading as many teams get their lead by first passing. MIN and HOU are two of the trendy teams this year and for good reason. They both rank well vs Rushing defense and vs Rushing offenses. Peterson should have another solid year and could very well be the fantasy #1 pick overall. Of all the rookies, I think Percy Harvin can have the biggest impact and I usually shy away from rookies. If Favre plays, he'll keep 8 out of the box and that means Peterson will dominate. (think of Elway and Terrell Davis) Steve Slaton won't creep up on anyone next year, however I think Shaub and company can improve enough to keep defenses honest. You can expect 1200+ yds from Slaton.

* From my prior example of Ronnie Brown 3.7 VS Thomas Jones 3.4. We might have to make some adjustments. Miami is facing a tough schedule VS the rush and the JETS are facing a relative "easy" one. Ronnie is dropping to a 3.6 and Thomas is going to a 3.5. Naturally these too are going in the same bucket and will be viewed as equals (For some leagues, Ronnie will get the nod for his wildcat potential)

Ok, so now we have an idea of how the SOS impacts our players and their teams. It's time to begin creating our buckets. Stay tuned as we'll explore each position and create draft buckets.

First Up- Running Backs!

UNMASKING FANTASY FOOTBALL 1.0- The Draft Board

NJDolphan68 — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 20:01:36 -0000

Gentlemen it's almost here... Another Fantasy Draft!

Like Dave Phuller, I hope to add some insight and help out my fellow Dolphans.

I've been involved with Fantasy Football since 1990. A friend had access to "the internet" and we were introduced to the concept by some random kids dialing in through their modem somewhere in cyber space. We adopted some rules and implemented a bid style draft with a "full" roster. (defensive positions, O-lines, and even punters!!!) I have been involved with some high stakes leagues and even ran my own for a few years. Today, I have retired, for now. But I do "consult" and even draft teams for friends, for a mild % of the winnings of course. :)

As a thank you to my Phinsider Friends, I'll be posting some important tips, advice, strategies and more. If any of you need "real" help, I'd be happy to assist anytime.

The most important piece to Fantasy Football is the draft and your draft is only as good as your WAR ROOM DEPTH CHARTS. Building depth charts is a painstaking process, but once you do it right it's easy maintenance. When building a depth chart you must suspend all previous notions about a player, whether you like or dislike them, whether or not the "experts" like them, etc etc. Each player should have a face value. I use a 5 point system to grade their "overall" value. The next phase is tricky. You must begin to adjust your player's score based on several major variables.

RULE #1: LEAVE THE FANATSY MAGAZINES ON THE SHELF, UNLESS YOU ONLY NEED STATS... Besides most magazines and the select advice they offer are outdated by the time you read them.

Let's consider RBs in this article.

1) History: Are they in their prime> Most RBs have a 4 year stretch of their prime years. The few great ones have 7-10 years runs, but those players are easy to identify. For the average RB, you must downgrade them if they are getting older and/or moving away from their 4 "good years". Be mindful that each year should be based on that RB as a solo starter, If their productivity went down because of splitting time or injuries, and they are returning as the sole starter, you may not want to downgrade them as much. Factor in injuries and age as necessary. For rookies and young players, you can guesstimate but never fall in love with a rookie. Their value is suspect so try and give them moderate value dispite the hype.

RULE #2: Be careful watching PRESEASON GAMES. Every year the preseason showcases some exceptional players who never see the field all season or maybe the rest of their careers. Pay attention in case some of these guys get playing time during the season. But never become smitten with preseason Allstars!

I.E.

Ronnie Brown: he hasn't had a "real" full year yet, but based on his YPC and obvious potential. I consider Ronnie a 1200yd 8 TD rusher. That's including a possible setback and some shared time with Ricky. With the wildcat, I'll give him some extra credit (but be mindful of your league rules, a RB TD pass may be worthless) In short, I'd give Ronnie a grade of 3.5. (4's are for my elites)

Thomas Jones: IMO, Thomas is only an average/above back. He is at the back end of his prime and though I would label him a 1300yd 8 TD rusher, he's getting a downgrade to 1250 7 TDs. 3.7 rating for TJ.

2) Free Agents> Is your RB on a new team? You must consider the new team and what exactly they're walking into. You'll have to adjust accordingly. If your RB is staying put be mindful of the entire offense and how it improved or worsened with Free Agents. Though you may be adding FA talent, be careful because if the personality doesn't match or the systems are too different, you might have some false hope. Grade sparingly. You can also factor in the improvements of a team's defense. An improved defensive means the offense will likely be running more and hopefully playing from ahead.

I.E.

Ronnie Brown: You have to like Long yr2, Grove, Smiley, and (possibly) Thomas to improve the running game. Factor in CP in year two, with more weapons, and a young growing defense with some major improvements as well. Ronnie is getting a boast to 3.7- 1250 yds 8tds.

Thomas Jones: The Jets OLine did enough to protect Favre and make some holes for TJ in the first 11 games, but they did not shine as expected. With a rookie QB and marginal weapons you'd expect the Jets to be a run happy team. Though the focus on running may favor TJ, I do see the Jet's running game facing 8-9 men in the box often. TJ downgraded to 3.4 1200 6 TD.

3) Continuity and Coaching: Generally speaking most coaches and systems are on a 3-4 year test run. If your coaches or systems are changing this is not always a good thing in year one. There is an adjustment period and you don't want to get caught gambling on this kind of potential. Smaller impact here, but note worthy.

I.E.

Ronnie Brown: Sparano take 2. You have to like the upside. No change: 3.7- 1250 yds 8tds.

Thomas Jones: Rex Ryan did bring in some of his boys for the defense, but the offense is about to undergo a makeover. I smell a youth movement in NY. Downgrade: 3.3 1150 6 TD.

4) Love and Happiness: There is something to say about a players happiness and whether or not they are in a contract year ( the last year of contract- audition for free agency). There is some merit to players not playing as "good" once they get a big deal and playing "better" when they're auditioning.

I.E.

Ronnie Brown: Still hungry to prove he can stay healthy- realizes this will hurt him in Free agency. No change: 3.7- 1250 yds 8tds.

Thomas Jones: Swann song for TJ. I can see him gone next year, unless the Jets make a playoff push. He could push hard enough to spark interest for a contender next year slight upgrade: 3.4 1200 6 TD.

5) Last and Most Important: Strength of Schedule! -And I'm not talking about the garbage you'll see posted all over the place. I mean REAL Strength of Schedule. In my next post, I'll explain this in more detail and expose the real chart climbers and chart droppers. (Basically, I apply my per-player point system to each team, coming up with offensive rush/pass and defensive rush/pass scores. Then I apply to the schedule and whalaaa... you see who has the hard schedule VS the rush and who is facing the weakest passing teams, etc. This is important because the teams' values must be done each year.

The real story will unfold and we'll examine the true and final impact to Ronnie and Thomas. You can see already that Ronnie and Thomas have flip-flopped in value. You could have been in trouble if you went with your first instinct. Without building a proper Strength of Schedule, you may also now be inclined to downgrade Ronnie because of the impending DIFFICULT SCHEDULE, but we'll soon see how true that really is. (Even though we might face tough teams, they could have suspect defenses, like INDY, NO, etc. and if they have weak run defenses, we'll then, the schedule might not be so difficult after all- Stay tuned!!!!)

6) Mind Your League! Values of players can change based on the league. Some leagues value scoring more, or as much as, yards, and some account for receiving as much as rushing. Valuing guys like Bush and Westbrook can get tricky, so pay attention to the rules.

SIDE BAR: To compose my Strength of Schedule, I need to maintain and coordinate ever teams depth charts, usually going 1-2 deep at back up. I even factor in the back-up as a small percentage of the teams values. Rookies even get moderate grades.

Also, once we've graded out the running backs and list them accordingly, we will then begin the second most important thing in composing our war room draft board...and that is making BUCKETS!! You will need to begin lumping players together for the purpose of judging their value. Let's say Pederson, LT, Tuner, and Portis are your first bucket and your second might be S Jackson, Ronnie Brown, Westbrook, Forte, Thomas and Gore. You can now compare who might be around as your draft unfolds. Let's say you have a t10 team draft,... we'll if you want a top tier RB you better not wait till round 3. Also if during the draft you are ending round two and you see a few left in bucket 2, you might want to try your luck for a back in round 3 after all. This method also help to avoid going after favorites and gut feelings and rather forces you to concentrate on playing the field for value.

Stayed tuned for more.. The Real "Strength of Schedule" coming up next--