SB Nation User Blog: NM99

Texas Tech will Likely Not Go to Fiesta Bowl

NM99 — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 16:09:27 -0000

For those who have been following this debate, I sent an email to the BCS this morning. Yes, I really did. You can, too. There is a link on the website. I posed the following question:

In regards to which teams from the Big XII conference that will go to a BCS bowl, could you please clarify the selection procedure for the following: Should Oklahoma win the Big XII championship and become an automatic qualifier as the champion, and presumably will play in the BCS championship game, will any other team from the Big XII automatically qualify for a BCS bowl game (also assuming no further changes in standings)?

Here is the response FROM THE BCS:

There is only one automatic qualifyer from the BCS conferences - the champion - but another team can go to a BCS bowl as an automatic, if they finish No. 3 in the final rankings and if no at-large team from that conference is No. 1 or 2, or as an at-large team. Texas would certainly fit into that category this year, probably as No. 3 but certainly as an at-large.

Best wishes,

BCS

emphasis mine

Tech R&D Could mean big $ for the University

NM99 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:44:51 -0000

Tech R&D Could mean big $ for the University

Since we do more than just play football around here...

Where do we go from here?

NM99 — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 21:20:54 -0000

Losing any game is tough. Dropping a game near the end of a season like this is especially so, with so many big things in your sights. It would be easy to feel disappointment and crawl back home, convinced we don't belong at the Big Boy table. Baloney. That is what OU and Texas expect of Texas Tech, and we should have enough West Texas grit to refuse to give it to them.

There's a saying in live theatre: A bad dress rehearsal means a good performance. It makes you focus. On Saturday, we saw a painful display of the corollary: a great dress rehearsal can lead to a terrible performance. You get complacent. You lose focus. Bad things happen.

Texas Tech's dress rehearsal was 2 weeks ago versus Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is a much better team than they showed two weeks ago, just as Tech was a much better team than they showed this Saturday. Don't under estimate the effect that playing a near flawless game against the #9 team had on the minds of a bunch of 18-23 year old men. The off week did not help us this time. The college game is cyclical. It is tough to stay at your peak week-in and week-out. This Saturday was a learning experience for Tech. It was the first time EVER that Tech has been in that kind of a game situation. They played like deer in the headlights. This team can play against OU. They beat them in 2007. The biggest difference was that the stakes were not as high. We cracked under the pressure. We've gotten it out of our system. Our coaches won't let it happen again.

We are staring an 11-1 regular season in the face. That is a great season no matter who you are. There is still a chance that Tech will play in the Big XII championship game and possibly a BCS bowl. At a minimum, the Cotton bowl. Playing in Dallas is never a bad thing. Especially for recruiting.

The thing about Evolution is that it is continuous. It doesn't care if there are setbacks, roadblocks, or nay-sayers. When evolution is taking place, it finds a way to continue. We are still evolving.

Some people think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Tech. I think it is a first in a lifetime. The sun is not setting, it is rising. Year after year, Tech has been able to reload on offense and play at very high levels. Although Crabtree is a rare talent that we are likely going to lose to the NFL (though I would love for him to stay, he would be crazy not to go) and Harrell's 3 years of experience will be difficult to replace, the overall level of talent at our skill positions is much better than it has ever been.

The last time we replaced a multi-year starter at QB, it was Kliff Kingsbury. His replacement was B.J. Symons, a guy with a cannon for an arm that brought the ability to stretch the field. Stretching the field is important in Leach's offense because it creates more space. While Harrell has adequate arm strength, I think there is no question that the heir apparent (Potts) has a significant advantage in that department.

Woods graduates, but Baron Batch will return next year and will be the #1 back. I'm sure Crawford will split time, but Batch will be the go-to guy. How exciting is that?

Morris is the only graduating receiver. Say what?

Our entire defensive line returns.

Our entire linebacking corps returns. Though they have struggled at times this year, the group is mostly sophomores, and they will be much better with a year of experience under their belts.

Though we are graduating 2 starting safeties, we keep Wall and Nickerson at corner. We have spent some recruiting capital on defense, and our underclassmen in the defensive secondary are bigger and more athletic than we have had in the past.

We have at least 2 games left in our season. One against an improving Baylor team and a bowl game. With our record, whomever we play will not be a slouch. We may end up playing in a BCS bowl. Looking ahead to next year, we will have another chance for another Tech first: back-to-back 10 win seasons. We have no reason to expect any less. After that, who knows? In the Big XII south, we will always face Texas and Oklahoma. We have beaten each of them in the past 2 seasons. We had the "Tiger slam" of college football in that we beat both in a 12 game stretch. The next step will be beating both in the same season. It wasn't this year, but it is on the horizon. We have earned the right to be taken seriously. We have pulled our chair up to the table. And regardless of what fans on other sites may be saying, we're here to stay.

GUNS UP!

Evolution

NM99 — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 03:53:25 -0000

To those outside of Double T Nation, Texas Tech’s rise to the top of college football this year is unexpected, ludicrous, a Cinderella story at best. But to those of us who have been following Texas Tech football and the transformation that it has taken under Mike Leach, this story is one of deliberate steps, building on one another. A success story not by happenstance, but one that has been years in the making and anticipated by the Fans of Texas Tech football. Let’s take a minute to remember from whence we came.

2004 – A rough year in the Big XII south for Texas Tech. Losses to Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M left the Red Raiders 5-3 in conference and 7-4 overall. However, the potential for the Red Raiders could be seen in a dominating win over Cal, ranked #9 but dejected over being slighted by the BCS and relegated to the Holiday Bowl. Like previous years, much of the recruiting class (20% of a very large class) is made up of Junior College transfers. A great way to quickly fill holes, but hard to build a team around. Only a handful of this class, now seniors, make the 2 deep roster today: Shannon Woods, Darcel McBath, L.A. Reed, Anthony Hines, Jake Ratliff, Eric Morris, and the star of the class a 4-star recruit from 4A Ennis High School, Graham Harrell, signed a letters of intent to play for Leach.

2005 – A better year. A 9-2 regular season finish with losses to Texas (who would go on to win the national championship) and Oklahoma State put the Red Raiders in the Cotton Bowl for the first time in 10 years to face Alabama, who won the contest 13-10. This was the third year in a row that a Senior QB would lead the team for a single season. This is also the first full year where the entire team was made of Leach era recruits The Air Raid was firmly entrenched. The recruiting class was small, but featured only one JC transfer. The star of the class was McKinner Dixon. Louis Vasquez, Edward Britton, Brent Nickerson, Brandon Carter, Marlon Winn, Sandy Riley, Rylan Hale, and Kobey Lewis also joined the team. Graham Harrell saw playing time as the backup QB to Cody Hodges.

2006 – A rebuilding year. Graham Harrell secured the starting QB slot as a sophomore. A 7-5 regular season finish (4-4 in conference) with no remarkable wins was most notable for losing to Texas after going up 21-0 in the first quarter. The highlight of the season was a remarkable comeback from a 31 point deficit against Minnesota in the Insight bowl. The 2006 recruiting class was much larger than 2005 and featured thirteen 3* and seven 4* recruits. Michael Crabtree, an overlooked 2* recruit who played QB and basketball in high school but projected as a wide receiver, joined the team. The list of current starters from this class is long and distinguished. This is the most successful recruiting class to date.

2007 – A somewhat disappointing year. To the outsider, this year looked to be a chance for Texas Tech to move beyond the middle of the pack and perhaps break out. A returning starter at quarter back and strong recruiting made the season look promising. However, disciplinary issues limited the play of Shannon Woods, and Baron Batch was out with an injury, making the offense rely almost exclusively on the passing game. Difficulties on the defensive side of the ball led to the firing of the defensive coordinator mid-season and promoting assistant Ruffin McNeill into the position. A home victory over #4 Oklahoma was the marquee win of the season. The contributions of RS FR Michael Crabtree cannot be underestimated in salvaging the season. The Red Raiders finished the regular season 8-4 and were selected for the Gator bowl where they posted a victory over #20 Virginia, which pushed them into the top 25. Three 4* and sixteen 3* recruits signed up, several of whom are seeing playing time in 2008, along with anohter surprizing 2* recruit, Colby Whitlock..

2008 – 10-0 to this point. Back-to-back victories over 2 top 10 teams. Ranked for the entire season, most of it in the top 10. I could name the entire starting lineup and most of the second string as outstanding performers. The year started with many questions to answer: How would the supposedly improved defense perform? Could Harrell and Crabtree repeat the statistically phenomenal season that was 2007? Could Texas Tech avoid the “bad loss” that has plagued them the past several seasons? How would they stand up to a rigorous conference schedule? Can they really compete with Texas and Oklahoma?

So far, all of these questions have been answered in the affirmative. Only one remains, and the answer will come on November 22. Looking back, the comeback win over Minnesota in 2006 was a pivotal point for Texas Tech. Everyone knew that the Tech offense could score points, but it was streaky. With a different senior at the helm every year, it was thought to be a gimmicky system that could insure a winning season, maybe the occasional upset, but never contend for a conference title in the Big XII, much less nationally. When the offense didn’t click, Tech fell flat. The 2006 Insight bowl started out proving the nay-sayers correct. But at some point during the game, the team seemed to start to believe in the system. The dramatic comeback served to prove to a young quarterback that if you trust it and everyone does their job, it will work. The rest of the team believed, too.

Over the past several years, improved recruiting has brought much needed consistency to the roster, allowed players to develop as a team, and added noticeable depth. In 2007, we saw glimpses of what this team could accomplish. The defense began to find itself, especially in the Oklahoma and Virginia games. The other-worldly production of Harrell and Crabtree in 2007 showed the power of the offense and what it could accomplish with next-level talent. But ultimately 2007 was a growing year, as much for the character of the team as for the experience. The frustration of the growing pains was obvious at times. But frustration comes from knowing that you have and can do better. It was no longer the look of doubt asking, “Can we compete?” It was the knowledge that yes, we can compete, we should have competed better, but we missed the opportunity to prove it.

The confidence inspired by the 2006 win coupled with the desire driven by the disappointment of 2007 have culminated 2008. We have seen the strengths and weaknesses, overcome the mental obstacle of beating Texas and felt the joy of that dramatic win, seen the team perform nearly flawlessly at times, and nearly watched all of our hopes disappear in a blocked extra point in overtime and in slow motion during a last minute drive as a tipped ball came down through the hands of the opposing safety, only to fall harmlessly to the ground.

I cannot predict with certainty what the next 7 weeks will bring, but I can say this: it has been an incredible time to be a Red Raider.

Oklahoma State - Behind the Numbers

NM99 — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:11:00 -0000

Like many of you, I have not had the opportunity to watch much Oklahoma State football this season. So last night, I took some time to review the box scores from their games in detail and looked at the play-by-play from a couple of their games. I made some observations that I think provide some insight into how Texas Tech should play OSU this weekend. You can read them after the break.

Observations regarding the OSU offense.

There has been a lot of talk about Bryant (WR) and Pettigrew (TE) for the OSU offense. Looking over the OSU box scores and the play-by-play for the OSU-UM and OSU-UT games, I noticed that OSU runs the ball 2x as often as they pass it. The OSU running back, Hunter, is putting up crazy numbers (almost 9 yds/carry against Texas). Not to take away from his ability to make plays, but it seems to me that Bryant is the beneficiary of that productivity on the ground. While yardage wise, OSU may appear "balanced" they are a running team at heart.

The next thing that I noticed is that OSU seems to rely on big plays by its offense. And they seem to get plenty of them. I didn't count, but there were a number of 20+ yard rushes and long receptions. But for a primarily running team, they are not methodically moving the ball down the field in 3 yards and a cloud of dust style. When they get their yards, they are getting them in big chunks. Explosive. Scary.

The write ups by Texas bloggers all commented on how good a team OSU really is, and that the 4 point win in Austin was extremely hard fought. I have to admit, I have been skeptical of OSU as a team. As I mentioned in a response earlier this week, they seem to be streaky to me. Perhaps that is because they are reliant on the big play offensively. When they aren't getting them, things start to melt down. I think that containing the big play - especially against the run - is the key to Tech winning this game. The battle of the trenches just became about 10x as important for Tech in this game in my eyes. The play in the Tech interior d-line will be very important, as it will be their job to plug up the gaps, make a few tackles, and allow the linebackers to make plays downhill. Again this week, containment by the defensive ends will be important, as Robinson is a legitimate running threat (despite fewer carries this year), and I think Hunter would prefer to run in the open field versus between the tackles. According to dedfischer over at Tortilla Retort, the OSU offensive line is pretty good. So our defensive line will have their hands full.

As for the OSU passing game, Tech plays its best pass defense in man coverage. I think that we need to stick to that plan and trust our corners to make plays. Trying to double up on Bryant with a safety opens Tech up to a breakaway run by a team that thrives on that ability. I don't think we should concede to their bread and butter. Make Robinson beat you with his arm in tight coverage. He doesn't have the accuracy of McCoy and is prone to mistakes. Pettigrew is a big target and a potential threat across the middle. We need our linebackers to make good tackles and our defensive ends to keep him busy at the line of scrimmage.

Observations regarding the OSU defense.

I wanted to know how teams performed against OSU versus their average performance. I have included a table below of the conference games:

	Pass O vs OSU	Rush O vs OSU	Avg Pass O	Avg Rush O	% gain/(loss) Pass v OSU	% gain/(loss) Rush v OSU
Texas A&M	218	184	110.67	251.6	96.98	(26.87)
Missouri	390	64	358.3	155.78	8.85	(58.92)
Baylor	162	42	196.1	183.33	(17.39)	(77.09)
Texas	391	113	302.1	171.89	29.43	(34.26)
Iowa State	240	122	219.8	132.33	9.19	(7.81)

As you can see, with the exception of Baylor, teams are passing notably higher than their average against OSU. Based on their low number of sacks, it seems that OSU is not getting a lot of pressure from their pass rush. They appear to be very good against the run, holding teams to significantly less than their average rushing production, though this may be in part due to the effectiveness of the pass against them. . They have a number of linebackers and defensive backs with tackles for loss. Mostly, I think they are doing a good job of sniffing out the run and making sure tackles. OSU had 7 TFL against Texas, but they were not big losses (only 13 yds), and the Texas rushing game was not totally shut down (3.5 yd/carry) despite not being a running team. Overall, this plays out well for Tech in that the strength of our offense is playing into the weakness of their defense. To me, this defense seems built around defending the run. What will be interesting to see is how they choose to defend the Tech passing game. Will they bring in extra DBs to cover our receivers, or will they rely on their linebackers for coverage? I don't know how their personnel will match up to our receivers, but I tend to believe that the best way to stop Tech is to mix in as much man coverage as possible. We have seen Harrell pick apart the zone all year long, so I expect OSU to go with more of a nickel defense. This may allow Tech to sneak in a few running plays, but relying too heavily on the run plays into OSU's strength on defense.

Conclusions:

If Tech can get a one or two stops early, I expect that OSU will be playing from behind because they have not shown the ability to slow down the passing game. That will put Tech in pretty good shape. If Tech doesn't stop the run, this thing could turn into a race to the finish in which the last team with the ball wins.

Keys to the Game: Texas v. Texas Tech

NM99 — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 20:26:52 -0000

I've been thinking waaayyyy too much about the Texas Tech - Texas game this week. I guess it's a good thing my boss went to Tech as well. It occurs to me that writing keys to the game may make it sound like Tech is over-matched. I don't think that is the case. But I am counting on Texas not giving anything. The team that wins will have to play their very best football. So here are 3 things on offense and 3 things on defense that I think Texas Tech will have to nail to counter the punches that I think Texas will throw at them.

On Offense

Don't let Texas play their dime defense all night.

Texas has a very good defensive line. They have been 30% more efficient at stopping the run than Tech (69 ypg v. 101 ypg) against some pretty stiff competition. They also have a couple of good pass rushers. They lead the conference in sacks per game and sack yards. Texas would love to line up with 3 lineman, a stand-up rusher, and a MLB in the box with 6 DBs all night long. Tech needs to make good use of the screen to take advantage of the aggressive pass rush. Tech also needs to be patient with the running game. If Batch can pick up at least 3.4 yards per carry, Harrell should check to the run and keep moving the sticks and make Texas play the run honestly. Some running plays out of the 2 TE set should do the trick. Eventually, this will wear Texas down. I think Muschamp himself has said that when the big guys are done, they're done, so he will make adjustments to stop it and keep his guys fresh.

If Texas can get pressure with the their dime package and only 3 lineman, they may concede a lot to the run as long as Tech isn't marching down the field and scoring. The Tech OL needs to communicate well and recognize where the blitz is coming from. From what I have read, I think Texas will try to move their stand-up pass rusher around and bring the pressure though the gaps in the middle versus around the outside. Though I foresee problems if they overload the outside against Reed, as he will have his hands full with Orakpo, and that is Harrell's blind side. If Tech is able to run the ball and protect Harrell with Texas in dime, Texas will make adjustments and it will open other things up.

Don't pull a Mizzou.

In their game against Texas, Missouri tried to run the ball first and then pass. Texas crammed it down their throats. I think our OL is better than Mizzou's, but we have to set up the run with the pass. I know that sounds counter to what I wrote above. Tech should look for Texas to double Crabtree with their best CB and a safety and to man up on the other receivers with the other safety playing center field. We need Britton going deep to draw the help of the other safety. With the exception of Morris, I think that the Tech receivers have a significant size advantage, which should be good for some short stuff over the middle. I'd also like to see James in as H-back instead of Morris in any situation where we need less than 7 yards. Texas is going to be physical, and we could use James's size when we need to move the chains. Good use of the screen and the 2 back set (dedfisher at Tortilla Retort has an excellent article on this) could also force Texas to bring in an extra LB as Mackelroy will be stretched thin trying to watch the run and help out over the middle. This will open up the run later in drives and in the second half. We still need Batch and Woods to pick up at least 100 yards on the ground to keep the Texas D honest, but we need to be careful to not put ourselves in a hole like Mizzou did.

Get rid of the ball

Graham needs to trust his gut and make sure he is getting rid of the ball quickly versus waiting for plays to develop. At the same time, if Tech can get Texas to commit 4 down lineman and move to a nickel or 4-3 set, we will need a Woods or Batch to help pick up the blitzing LB to make sure Graham has time to get rid of it. If the OL is picking everything up or there is no blitz, whoever is back there becomes the safety valve. As I mentioned above, the Texas defensive line is good. If Harrell is taking more than about 3 seconds to make a decision, Tech will be prone to some holding calls that will bring anything he completes back.

On Defense

Force McCoy to throw to someone besides Shipley or Cosby

Forget that we've ever heard of zone defense. Texas Tech has shown that it can be very effective using its nickel defense, playing man-under. Our DBs need to hitch a ride in Shipley's and Cosby's jocks if they have to and force McCoy to go to his other receivers. He is not as comfortable with them, and Tech needs to take advantage of miscues that will result in drops and incompletions. Tech won't be able to hang with Texas if they allow McCoy to continue to throw to Shipley and Cosby almost exclusively and keep up his 80% completion rate. Texas will also come out with 4 wide a few times. Our base 4-3 personnel can't handle that set. Put the nickel D in the game and either force McCoy to make amazing throws into man under Cover 1 or force Texas to try and run the ball. Whittiker is potentially back this week, so Texas may do just that (run), but I trust our DL to plug some holes and our two LBs + McBath to clean up. Texas will be trading at least a couple of FGs for TDs if they are forced to run.

Keep McCoy in the backfield

This Texas team is different from any that Tech has played. They don't have a go-to running back this year. So far they have been reliant on the pass and Colt's ability to scramble for yards. Kind of like Kansas. Tech was very effective with its nickel defense, keeping a LB home to shadow Reesing. As I said earlier, Colt is in a whole other league, but this is our best option for keeping him from scrambling for 8-10 yards a play. The Dixon and Williams will have to be disciplined to contain first at defensive end and then rush the pass and trust the coverage to give time to get to McCoy without taking too many chances. I think bringing Sesay in as the Joker would be good as it will give Whitlock the chance to be one on one instead of double teamed and we can try to get to McCoy up them middle. But first we have to contain.

Contain the Option

Honestly, this is the thing that scares me the most. Last week we allowed Kansas to move the ball pretty effectively with the option. Colt McCoy is a good running QB. With a pitch man in the backfield, Texas running the option could be dangerous. The containment by our ends will be key. I expect McCoy to go to his right, which means it will be Dixon's job to get off of his blocker and force McCoy to pitch the ball. Last week, the LB was forced to take Reesing, and the corner was off covering a receiver. So when the pitch was made, there was a lot of running room before someone could pull of their pass coverage and get to the running back.

Path to Winning the Big XII South

NM99 — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:48:54 -0000

Here is a really good graphic of how the rest of the season may play out as far as who wins the Big XII south. The tie break scenarios if Texas wins aren't likely or friendly to Tech, so we need this one against Texas. But even that leaves us a long row to hoe. One week at a time...

Big XII south champion

State of the Union

NM99 — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 02:16:44 -0000

Texas Tech is now over half way through the season, and as predicted at the beginning of the season, they are 8-0. It appears that our Red Raiders have avoided the bad loss (unless something tragic happens and they lose to Baylor). In the first half of the season, we have seen the gamut of what this year's team has to offer. Given Williams's solid performance against KU, it won't surprise me if we don't see a last second, game-winning field goal before the season is over. As we enter the "meat" of our conference schedule, I thought it would be good to take a step back and look at where Tech stands.

It has been easy for us to see all of the foibles of our Red Raider team and think of the ways that Texas Tech can be beaten. As in 2007, we have seen the mighty fall, so it is easy to see how it could happen to Tech. The bloggers and analysts have pointed out how even Texas, Alabama, and others may be beaten. Why are there so many obvious flaws? Are there no truly dominant teams? Why is this the case?

I belive much of what we have seen can be explained by parity. Especially parity in the level of talent at the top of the depth charts. More of the elite players are choosing to turn pro as soon as possible versus completing their eligibility. While, as Leach says, a red-shirt or gray-shirt season may help freshmen to adjust to college and perform better when they do start, it is one less year that elite talent like Crabtree gets to take the field and make a difference because they can then enter the draft after playing only 2 seasons. It is the same fate that college basketball suffers because elite players enter after their freshman year.

As an elite player this leaves you with 2 options: 1) go to a top ranked school and hope to beat out the likely top-ranked, upper-classman incumbent at your position, 2) go to a school that guarantees you will get lots of playing time right away. So we are seeing the elite talent be distributed more equitably among teams. Talent wise, the difference between winning teams comes down to 1 - 2 players.

The distribution of talent makes coaching, individual match-ups and schemes all the more important. Going into the home stretch, I think it is precisely these areas that make it plausible that Texas Tech will win out. This is not to say that there are not some very tough battles ahead, but none of them are un-winnable. So far this year, we have seen Tech play in cycles as the players and staff work out the kinks and get the players tuned up. It has looked something like this:

Not that cyclical performance is uncommon in college football. It is how Oregon State can beat USC, and it is in many ways a product of the parity mentioned above. It is the ability of the coaching staff to reduce the peak to trough variation, resulting in more consistent performance that results in winning conference titles and national championships. It is this consistency that has prevented Tech from suffering the "bad loss" thus far and it is this consistency that I expect to see more of in Tech going forward.

I think there is no doubt that the offensive consistency has been bolstered by the ability to run the ball and force teams to play honest defense. While it is clear that Harrell's and Crabtree's individual statistics may not be as eye-popping as in 2007, the multidimensional offense gives Tech more options when one is taken away. This is where the offensive scheme employed by Leach allows Tech to create and exploit the individual match-ups that give Tech the biggest advantage. There is no reason to believe that Tech will not be able to score at least 35 points in every game we play. And given the level of pass protection that out line is providing and the pass defenses of the teams we are preparing to face, it could be more.

I jokingly commented the other day that I was going to start referring to the Texas Tech defense collectively as Sybil (after the woman with 17 personalities). We have seen the most inconsistency from the Tech defense. Contrary to popular belief, Texas Tech does have a legitimate defense. The run defense has been pretty good, holding teams to less than 100 yards on average. Though some would say this is a function of (a) the best teams we have played are 4-3, and (b) the pass defense is a sieve.

While I cannot argue (a), there is good reason to contest (b). We have seen at least 5 quarters of play in conference games where the Texas Tech defense has shut down the opposing offense. The first 3 quarters came in the 2nd quarter versus KSU and the 3rd and 4th quarters versus A&M. The next 2+ came versus KU. If you still don't believe me try this: in the opening of the second half, KU ran 5 plays and gave up 3 interceptions to Tech. after the 1st quarter, the Tech defense adjusted and totally shut down KU until late 4th quarter when they scored a touchdown during clean-up.

This success is entirely related to the scheme that Tech had on the field at the time. In all five quarters, Tech employed a nickel-type defense and relied on the defensive line to pressure the quarterback and contain the run. The nickel defense allows Tech to play more man coverage versus zone in which they have struggled. Based on recent comments by McNeil, I would not be surprised if we see more of this, especially against Texas (who has become much more of a pass-oriented team this year in absence of a go to running back). This is just the sort of scheme that Tech needs to play to force our opponents to be more one dimensional and force them out of their usual game plan. Though I don't foresee the type of dominance that Tech displayed against A&M and KU against Texas, OSU, and OU there is no reason to believe that the defense will not be capable of forcing 2 or 3 punts and limit these teams to 1 or 2 field goals instead of touchdowns each half. Given the consistency of the offense, that is probably all Tech needs to come away with a win.

So while the pundits have been somewhat bearish on Texas Tech and the strength of their schedule thus far, I am bullish on their chances going forward. With our offense, there is no reason that we can't score against any of our upcoming opponents. The flashes of greatness from the Tech defense tell me that there is more to them than meets the eye and that they may have just found their true identity. In the past, I mentioned that I believed that it is important for a team to "peak" at the right time. Tech may be preparing to do just that.

What do you think? Will Tech peak at the right time and win out?

The Tortilla Retort

NM99 — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 18:00:17 -0000

The Tortilla Retort

BC's dedfisher has his own forum now. The analysis of the Nebraska game is here.

The Impression that I get

NM99 — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:26:41 -0000

I’m not a coward, I’ve just never been tested.
Id like to think that if I was, I would pass.
--The Mighty Mighty Bosstones

Reflecting on the Kansas State game, I keep wondering how much skepticism Tech dispelled, despite winning by 30 points on the road. I expected a much closer game, and so I find myself asking is Texas Tech really that good, or was KSU really that bad?

Going into the game, I honestly thought that KSU, based on prior seasons, would be a fairly good team. However, leading into this weekend, they posted a fairly modest victory over U-La-La, lost to what looks to be a mediocre Louisville team, and beat up on North Texas and Montana State – both of which are only marginally better than most high school programs. Last week the Bring on the Cats contributors were brutally honest about the state of the Wildcat program this year. Though Tech dominated the scoreboard and showed some flashes on defense, I am not sure that this game was the litmus test that it was supposed to be (I would like to see K-State play Nevada).

My impression of the Offense:

In general, the Tech offense seemed to click better this game; however, I think that was party due to the Kansas State defense operating more out of fear of the Tech offense than having any real game plan. At the start of the game, Kansas Sate was playing a 4-3 in a very soft cover 2, which Tech exploited for 3 straight running plays for 35 yards. I think the last time Tech opened with 3 running plays, Rob Peters was the starting QB and Ricky Williams was in the backfield. If they went for 35 yards, it was probably against North Texas. According to BOTC, this is not the defense that KSU had run in their previous games, and it showed.

On the next two offensive drives, KSU gave the same look, but then brought the strong safety up when Tech set their formation. The run didn’t work quite as well after that, but Harrell recognized what they were doing pretty quickly and went to the pass. KSU changed defensive strategies again and began blitzing on every play for a stretch, leaving the Tech receivers 1-1 for plenty of YAC.

Positives: 5 sustained drives used up almost 28 minutes of clock, 0 sacks, the offensive line was able to recognize the blitz, good recognition by Harrell of what the defense was doing, Harrell moved around just enough to avoid the worst of the pass rush, still over 100 yards on the ground, ore receivers involved than I could count, and we actually ran a successful hand-off with Harrell under center.

Negatives: Though Harrell was never sacked and the offensive line did at least acknowledge the blitz and make contact with the defenders, I noticed that Harrell was doing a lot of back-peddling in the pocket. Texas or OU would have dropped him for at least three 10 yard losses and probably a fumble for a touchdown. Even when K-State abandoned the blitz, there was a lot more push from the K-State defensive line than I would like to see. Perhaps Vazquez and Reed are not fully recovered yet, but let’s hope they get there soon.

It may have been a function of the back-peddling, but Harrell did not do a good job of planting his feet and stepping into his throws all day. Harrell was lucky not to have thrown any picks on Saturday, but then again he never needed to throw the ball more than about 12 yards. If he ever needs to beat any other DBs downfield, he’s going to have to step up and deliver the ball, even if it means taking a hit. If he keeps trying to throw with just his arm, every defense in the conference is going to have a field day for INTs. He also made me nervous when he threw the ball while rolling out with a defender hanging on his jersey. The completion was lucky. It was a dumb throw, though. He should have thrown it away. That would have been fumble #2 against Texas or OU.

I also recall 3-4 drops that I’m sure Leach is talking to his receivers about today.

My impression of the Defense:

I have been skeptical of the Tech defense because of the (lack of) pass coverage. After seeing this game, I think it has to do with the scheme being called from the sideline more than the players not making the plays. Since K-State had already resigned themselves on defense, their only hope on offense was to try and make the game a shoot out. I know K-state put up a lot of points against North Texas, but come on – did they really think that was how they wanted to play Tech? Apparently so. So while overall the defensive effort looked good, I’m not sure that pass-pass-pass is what KSU is best at. They have a pro-style QB that is best at running a pro-style offense, not running a west coast offense. There’s an old saying about not changing horses mid-stream. I think this also shows a lack of a solid game plan by KSU, and it did not play to their strengths.

The Tech defense started out the game playing the run with the corners 10 yards off the line, and K-State came out passing. Fortunately on their 2nd drive, K-state dropped the ball on 3rd and 8, forcing a punt. The Tech defense gets some credit there for forcing Freeman out of the pocket, but I thought the pass should have been caught. On their 3rd drive, K-State received a gift after Tech failed to convert on 4th and inches from its own 29. I won’t discuss the decision to go for it here. KSU comes out passing again and Tech is still playing the run. 4 plays later they score.

After 3 series in which 60% of the plays run by KSU were passes, Tech finally adjusts and starts playing the pass. The corners started playing tighter, and the d-line was unleashed to try and pressure the QB instead of plug holes. The result was 3 straight punts by K-State (would have been 3 straight 3-and-outs were it not for a sideline infraction).

In the second half, up by 24 points, Tech reverted to playing the same coverage as at the start of the game, but continued to allow the defensive line to pressure the QB. Other than 1 off-sides by Whitlock, the defense also did a great job of not beating themselves. They only gave up 1 TD in the second half (though I am not sure how impressive that is, given the quality of the K-State play) and seemed to be content to let K-State beat themselves by burning the clock.

Positives: DBs showed the ability to play tighter coverage, pressuring the pass with only the front 4, no stupid penalties, held a good QB to under 50% completion and 21 points (7 of those were practically a gift from the offense), d-line was able to get off their blocks and make plays.

Negatives: it took 3 series for Tech to adjust their coverage, Wall continues to get picked on, failed to stop the long drive after halftime, overplay by the front 4 - in a different situation this might invite the screen. I also think that Colt McCoy will exploit this if he comes out of the Texas-OU game in one piece.

It is hard to say how Tech might have faired had K-state mixed in the run on their 3rd and 4th series in first half as they did in the second half, chewing up clock and keeping the Tech offense off the field. Other teams have used this technique effectively against Tech in the past. While I know that the defense had shifted mostly to prevent at this point and they were rotating in a lot of newbies, I don’t understand not employing the pass coverage that was successful in putting the game away in the first half. Seriously. KSU was down by 24 points. It is obvious that the only hope K-State has is to pass their way back into the game. While things worked out OK in the end, it is better for your offense to be running out the clock when you are ahead, not the opposing team. There were 30 minutes left in the game, not 30 seconds when they reverted to prevent coverage. Continue to do what worked and get them off the field. The coverage scheme has to do with what is being called in from the sideline and not with the players on the field failing to execute. So I guess I will quit being so hard on the players and direct my ire towards McNeil when I am yelling at the TV in the future (come on you do it, too).

My Impression of Special teams.

Positives: Corona made a FG.

Negatives: In general, they were HORRIBLE. It is obvious that Leach has ZERO confidence in the special teams. People have suggested that it is the kicker/punter. I think it is coverage. They were terrible. I’m not sure what the average starting point was for K-state, but it had to be close to the 40 on kickoff, and there was the blocked punt for a TD. If punt coverage is as bad as kickoff coverage, kicking into a 30+ mph wind with 4th and inches to go and the propensity to give up the block, I might go for it as well. This will cause us to loose a game if something dramatic doesn’t happen to turn it around.

General notes:

A pretty clean game by Tech standards, penalty wise. No turnovers. The players seem to be executing well, which is what you want in this type of game. My impression of KSU is that they are well short of their prime. BOTC was right – they are realistically looking at a 5-7 year. With this in mind, I don’t think I know any more about where Tech should really fit into the rankings than I did last week. KSU is only marginally better than Iowa State and Baylor, and probably on par with A&M this year. Nebraska seems to be in about the same place, so I think Tech’s first real test will be Kansas.

That’s the impression that I get.

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