Up and down the organization, there are numerous roster decisions that will be made in the coming days and weeks. At the major league level, established starters are getting healthy and returning to the active roster. Down on the farm, a number of players are heating up and may deserve promotions.

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Now that we're almost a quarter of the way into the season, I think it's about time that we start re-evaluating our top 10 prospects given the new information contained in their 2007 performances. I also posted this analysis over on the A's scout.com message board (good board for prospect info and statistical analysis).

As a system, I'd have to say that 2007 has begun on a decidedly disappointing note. Underperformances have outweighed overperformances by our top prospects. Below is my updated organizational top 10. Dallas Braden and Travis Buck have been left off the list as they are currently on the big league roster.

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Interesting development from Vegas and the Internet Sports Books in the last couple of hours here. On tradesports.com, the A's to win has moved from 49.5% to 50.5% likely, making the A's the very slight favorites. More significantly, the likelihood of hitting the over on the 8.5 run over/under line has moved from 51% to 56%, a truly enormous move given the lack of any new public information here recently.

Do the insiders know something that we don't here? Why is the money going so hard to the over? What does this mean for the A's chances?

In my novice sports bettor opinion, I'd say that this has to do with Verlander in some way, since he's considered the better starter. Interesting development, at least....

First of all, I have 4 extra tickets for Friday's game in Section 106 and 4 tickets for Saturday's game in Section 231. I bought 6 for each game when they went online thinking a bunch of people in my dorm would want to go, but it's too expensive for most people.

Anyway, I'm selling them for exactly what I paid for them, $55 for Friday and $35 for Saturday. It really sucks that tickets are going for $100+ from scalpers due to the reduced capacity, so I'd much rather sell the tickets to real A's fans at face value.

If interested, email me at jrube@stanford.edu

Secondly, and mostly because I'd hate to create a diary solely about selling tickets, a few observations from today's game:

-Zito is really pitching on fumes right now, making his performance all the more admirable. His best fastball of the day was 88 mph, following the Rondell White home run. Most of the day he was topping out at 85 or 86, with a bunch of 84 mph heaters thrown in there. Like the true pro he is, however, Zito was masterful with his offspeed pitches, getting the curve over for strikes and locating his change.

-I thought Ellis looked really nervous at the plate and never really got comfortable up there. That said, he was stellar with the glove as usual.

-If Chavez continues to look like he's never played baseball before at the plate and the Twins start to pitch around Big Frank, do you consider putting Swisher in the 5 spot?

No word yet on which players are going from New York to Philadelphia in return.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2534459

Not sure if this impacts the market for Zito or Soriano in anyway, a lot depends on the type of package that Philly receives.

(Filling space) From today's SF Chron:

Beane nearly provided Zito with a shock to the system after the game, motioning to him that he needed to speak with him privately, then telling him what a great job he'd done rather than the GM's first inclination: He'd planned to joke that Zito was being traded.

"I think Billy was going to yank my chain, but then he decided not to,'' Zito said with a grin. "I don't think I would have taken him seriously, anyway.''

Zito said he believes Beane would keep him informed if he was going someplace else, and Beane said both before the game and afterward that he doesn't think the A's will make a major deal.

"We have nothing going on, there's nothing there and we're not trying to drum up business, anyway,'' he said.

Beane has said similar things in previous years and each time has gone on to make some midseason move. And, while the A's also need Zito, especially with Rich Harden out indefinitely, the free-agent-to-be is highly coveted by some prospect-rich teams. He's considered the top left-hander available, and the Mets and the Yankees, two of the most high-profile clubs seeking starters, had scouts at the game.

With the A's offense continuing to struggle, it may be time to consider letting the Daric Barton era begin. Barton's performance in Sacramento has been nothing short of remarkable for a 20-year old (turns 21 in August). Here is his line through 68 at bats:

AVG: .353
OBP: .488
SLG: .559
ISO: .206
BB: 18
K: 11
2B: 2
3B: 3
HR: 2

A few things stand out. Obviously first has to be the On-Base Percentage, standing at .488, as well as the BB/K ratio of 18:11. Barton has consistently demonstrated a command of the strike zone that would rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Second would be Barton's emerging power, which has been the largest knock on him thus far. Let's look at Barton's 2005 stats:

A+ Stockton (292 AB):

AVG/OBP/SLG: .318/.438/.469
ISO: .151

AA Midland (212 AB):

AVG/OBP/SLG: .314/.410/.491
ISO: .177

This is extremely positive news in Barton's development. It seems as though the theory that power is the last tool to develop is holding true with Barton. Furthermore, Barton sacrificed some OBP for increased power during his stint at Midland; this has not been the case in AAA, with Barton's OBP standing well over 100 points above his batting average.

Returning to the original question: Is it time for Daric Barton to be called up to Oakland? The criteria for bringing him up to the big club, in my mind, should be whether Barton currently represents a marked improvement over whoever's ABs he would be taking -- if he's only "a little better" right now, it's probably not worth it.

So how good would Barton be? At the beginning of the year, PECOTA 50th percentile prediction was .263/.343/.395 for an OPS of .738, certainly not enough to justify taking ABs from Dan Johnson or Jay Payton.

However, Barton's performance over his first 68 ABs in AAA has undoubtedly changed that outlook. Barton's numbers have shown no deterioration despite advancing another level; rather, Barton has seemingly taken several steps forward and raised his game another level. If Barton can maintain his current performance through, say, 100-125 ABs, I would forecast him being able to hit .290/.400/.460 THIS YEAR.

Inserting those types of numbers into the lineup could be the impetus that puts the A's over the top this season.

My question to you, AN: If Barton continues to tear the cover off the ball, where do you play him? Is his defense at 1st base good enough to not be a complete liability out there? Can Frank Thomas make a start a week at 1B?

What if Beane had gone with the "other" approach and kept the Big 3 together?

We'd currently have Harden, Zito, Mulder and Blanton under contract with Hudson hitting free agency. Let's say Lew Wolff opens his wallet and extends Hudson for the 4yrs/$44 million that he got from Atlanta.

RHP T. Hudson $9.5 million (backloaded contract)
RHP Harden $500k
LHP Zito $8.5 million
LHP Mulder $7.5 million
RHP Blanton $300k

Street $300k
Duchscherer $300k
Saarloos $300k
Garcia $300k
Flores $300k
Rheinecker $300k
Another Reliever ???

C Melhuse $750k (would have to dump Kendall's contract, maybe have to eat a few million)
1B Swisher $300k
DH D. Johnson $300k
2B Ellis $1 million
SS Crosby $1 million
3B Chavez $9.5 million (his contract is backloaded as well)
LF Ethier $300k
CF Kotsay $7 million
RF Kielty $1 million

That's only about a $50 million payroll by my count... but there'd be no Barton coming along either.

Imagine how good this offense would be if Kendall was posting his career average .300/.390/.400, if Kotsay was producing his .290/.350/.450, and if Hatteberg was producing .280/.360/.440. Here is what the line-up should be doing based on career norms, OBP/OPS (followed by deviation of this year's actual production from career in parentheses):

Kendall .390/.790 (-130)
Kotsay .350/.800 (-70)
Crosby .360/.820 (~ +20)
Chavez .350/.850 (-30)
Johnson .360/.840 (+60)
Payton .330/.790 (+60)
Hatteberg .360/.800 (-90)
Swisher .350/.780 (~ flat, but less OBP & more SLG than expected)
Ellis .350/.750 (+60)

The players outperforming expectations are the young guns; meanwhile, Kendall, Hatteberg, Kotsay and Chavez are underperforming career averages (in that order).

-I think Chavez will continue to work his way toward his .850 career OPS level as his horrific start is faded into the larger full season of ABs.
-Likewise, if Kotsay can stay healthy, I think there's a good chance that he could catch fire and have a hot September.
-Unfortunately, I think the skills of Kendall and Hatteberg have regressed enough that their current true abilities are closer to this year's performances rather than their career averages.

Overall, the team is -120 points of OPS lower than career averages or what should be expected out of them. While this would seem to give hope that the offense is due to improve in September, if you consider Kendall and Hatteberg's performances this year to be indicative of their current true abilities, then the offense is producing +100 points of OPS over their heads. The truth likely lies somewhere in between, meaning that the offense will probably continue to be league average in September -- thus, for us to make the playoffs, it's going to have to be on the back of continued strong pitching.

Here's the line-up to use against Shrek, a RHP whose heater Kendall has about 0.000001% chance of catching up to:

Ellis
Kotsay
Crosby
Chavez
Johnson
Payton
Hatteberg
Swisher
Melhuse

This brings me to my final question for AN: if Kendall has really deteriorated into a .660 OPS player, what do we do with him for 2006 and 2007? The reality of the situation is that he's here for 2006 whether we like it or not, but I can't fathom 600 AB season of .660 OPS production. Moving him would require covering his salary, which we're not going to do -- hopefully BB will see the light and play Melhuse for 60 games against right-handed pitching next year.

THE PLOT THICKENS: Barton is not in tonight's line-up for Midland, which could mean he's on the way to Detroit for tomorrow's game. Please update this thread with developments -- methinks Billy has seen enough and heard Oaktoon/blee1134 enough.

Midland is currently trailing San Antonio 4-3 in the 5th inning. Jeremy Brown is 1-2, HR, 2 RBI, his 18th of the year and continuing his torrid hitting. Although he's old for the Texas league at 25, his stroke is really coming around -- I could see him making the major league team in the next year or two if he keeps hitting like this. (Must reach 300 characters)..................

Many people have bemoaned the farm system's relative lack of strength right now -- after all, it lost Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher, Dan Johnson and Huston Street to the major league team. Our current crop of minor league prospects certainly seems to be a little weaker than in years past, but not tremendously so. Looking up and down the list, I still see several major league regulars if not the depth of potential stars that there once was. And that is still very good compared to other farm systems throughout the league.

Here's my current top 10:

1. Daric Barton, AA Midland. Age 20. ETA: late 2006. 318/438/469 at Stockton, 290/382/473 at Midland. Impact bat who's still trying to find a defensive position, perhaps the top plate discipline in the minors with developing power. Adequate at 1B, rumors abound that he'll move to catcher or LF by the time he makes the big leagues. Projects to a 290/380/450 type rookie line, with potential to grow into a 310/420/540 hitter. Probably one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball.
2. Dan Meyer, AAA Sacramento. Age 24. ETA: early/mid 2006. I know, he's been bad this year, but he was injured. The fact remains that his track record is sterling -- there are those words again! Damn Billy Beane and Macha for saying in May that the team was fine b/c the players had track records. In 352 minor league innings before this year, Meyer had a 2.71 ERA with 381 K's against 87 BB's. If you claim higher levels of competition is his problem, in 61.1 innings at AAA Richmond last year, Meyer had a 2.79 ERA, striking out 60 while walking 25. The guy is still very, very good and project to be at least a left-handed Joe Blanton (4.40 rookie ERA) with the potential to one day post a sub-3.50 ERA.
3. Andre Ethier, AA Midland. Age 23. ETA: mid/late 2006. Ethier has established himself as a legit prospect this year after being left off many top-10's in the off-season, a testament to just how strong the system was last year. Just 23, Ethier is killing the AA Texas league, hitting 325/390/522 with 17 HR's and 44 XBH total. At 6-3 200, he's a good athlete with tools the scouts like; after hitting 313/383/442 in the Cal League last year, he now has a performance record to match. The only disconcerting aspect of his game is the low walk rate, drawing only 38 BB in 408 in ABs. Ethier projects to be a major league regular at a corner outfield position, with potential to be above average with the bat (290/350/490) as well as defensively.
4. Jairo Garcia, AAA Sacramento. Age 22. ETA: early/mid 2006. Garcia lit up the minors last year, rocketing from A-ball to the Major League club in his first season as a reliever. With an explosive mid- to upper-90s fastball, devastating slider and developing change, Garcia's pure stuff is among the best in the minors; the only thing that could hold him back is his control. Some will point to his 5.30 ERA in Sacramento as evidence that he's the next Jesus Colome, but Garcia has clearly been instructed by the A's brass to work on pounding the strike zone first and worry about results second. His peripheral numbers are ungodly good: 57 K's to 15 BB's in just 35 IP, good for a sick 14.66 K/9. Garcia could become anything from a major league closer to a below-average middle reliever who never quite lived up to his potential.
5. Javier Herrera, low A Kane County. Age 20. ETA: 2008. The A's most "projectable" prospect, Herrera is a true 5-tool player who has the potential to be an offensive and defensive star. Herrera lit up short-season A ball last year, posting a 331/392/550 line at Vancouver en route to becoming the Northwest League MVP. Herrera drops in the rankings slightly this year due to a good, but not great 281/375/451 performance in his first year of full season ball. The most encouraging thing is the OBP, which has taken a notable step forward, although the notorious free swinger still has a 39:89 BB/K ratio. Herrerra is still so young that he probably has at least two more full seasons in the minor leagues. Hard to say what he'll become in the big leagues (or if he'll even make it) since he's so far away, but his ceiling could be as an All-Star.
6. Kevin Melillo, AA Midland. Age 23. ETA: late 2006 or early 2007. A 5th round pick in the 2004 draft, Melillo hit well at Vancouver to the tune of 340/422/564 but was largely under the radar coming into this season. Starting at low A Kane County, Melillo hit 286/399/457 before being called up to high A Stockton, where he mashed so much (400/471/800) that he earned another quick promotion. He's hit the ground running in Midland, hitting 313/450/375 in 16 AB's. Reportedly nothing more than an average 2B, Melillo's calling card is his bat, which has been nothing short of remarkable so far this year. He has 17 HR's in 386 ABs this year, the same as Ethier (but 47 XBH to Ethier's 44) in 20 fewer ABs. His plate discipline is tremendous, as he has a 69:63 BB/K ratio over the three levels. Melillo's defense projects to be better than the all-hit, no-glove Todd Walker or Keith Ginter. If Melillo can improve with the glove and keep mashing they way he has, he could be the A's opening day 2B in 2007. A more realistic expectation might be as a solid PH and utility infielder who develops into the starting 2B after 2-3 years of ML experience (and Ellis is gone).
7. Dallas Braden, AA Midland. Age 21. ETA: late 2006 or early 2007. Braden is another guy who was off-the-radar coming into the season but has forced his way onto the organizational Top 10 list. After a nasty 2.68 ERA with a 64:11 K/BB ratio in 43 innings at Stockton, Braden was bumped up to AA Midland where he has performed decently. The lefty sports a 3.90 ERA at AA, with a 71:32 K/BB ratio in 97 innings -- the ratio is good, but the K/9 is less than ideal. Braden is a legit prospect due to his stellar performance this year and increase in velocity from the mid-80's up to the high-80's, but the deterioration in his peripheral numbers casts some doubt over whether he can become a solid ML starting pitcher or just a decent bullpen guy.
8. Cliff Pennington, low A Kane County. Age 21(?). ETA: late 2007 or 2008. Pennington was given an aggressive placement in Kane County, where he hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball but has acquitted himself well. There really isn't enough of a sample to rank him all that accurately, but I decided he's played enough to prove he belongs in the top 10 -- if he gets hot with the bat, he could force his way into the top 5. Regardless, expect either Pennington or Melillo to get significant playing time at 2B starting in 2007 or 2008.
9. Danny Putnam, high A Stockton. Age 22. ETA: late 2007.  (I'm partial to him b/c he's from Stanford - represent Danny.) Sandwich round pick from the 2004 draft, tabbed as a pure bat and average fielder who has done nothing to dispell either label. Currently hitting 303/395/467, Putnam has shown excellent ability to hit for average and get on base, although his current power output is somewhat lacking with exactly 39 XBH in 390 AB. Putnam will need to continue to hit in order to get to the major's, but he has a refined swing with an excellent approach. At the least, he'll become a useful left-handed PH and 4th/5th outfielder off the bench. However, if he's to become a ML regular, he'll need to develop some more power as it'll have to be his bat that gets him there.
10. Kurt Suzuki, high A Stockton. Age 22(?). ETA: late 2007 or 2008. A 2nd round pick from the 2004 draft, Suzuki was very impressive in his first big league Spring Training, showing plus mobility behind the plate, a strong throwing arm (threw out his first 5 base runners!) and a solid approach at the plate. His defense and game-calling have been questioned though recently, and it appears he'll have to improve in that area to become the guy that takes over for Jason Kendall. Has flashed a quick bat to go along with the great approach at the plate in hitting 271/388/431 with 8 HRs and 32 XBH in 332 ABs, but most impressive in the 56:52 BB/K ratio. Could become an above average ML starting catcher and at the least seems likely to make the major leagues as a useful backup catcher.

On the fringe:

11. Jason Windsor. Great control, average stuff. High 80's fastball with good command of all his pitches. Has struck a lot of guys out in the minors with his location, but questions over how his stuff projects to the major leagues. Probably not an ML starter but could easily become a useful middle relief type.
12. Richie Robnett. Toolsy first round pick from the 2004 draft has struggled in the first half of the year at high A Stockton but is really starting to come on of late. Strikes out a ton but takes his plenty of walks, and his ISO power is excellent. Ability to make consistent contact in question due to .258 batting average. If he can continue his recent strong performance through the end of the season, he should definitely sneak into the top 10 on projectability alone.
13. Jeremy Brown. Nothing more than a back-up catcher at this point, but could still develop enough to become an adequate stop-gap starter for part of a season until Suzuki or Powell is ready to take over full time.
14. Brant Colamarino. Power hitting 1B who was promoted to AAA from after lighting up Midland earlier in the year. Only hitting .266 at Sacramento, but his slugging is above .500 so could be a useful left-handed pinch hitter starting in 2006 or eventually even a part-time DH. Wouldn't be ready to play any type of significant role until he gets a year or two of big league experience under his belt.
15. John Baker. See #13.
16. Dustin Majewski
17. Jason Perry

Not enough data, but top 10 material:

Travis Buck
Craig Italiano
Jared Lansford
Landon Powell
Brian Snyder

2005's Most Disappointing: Brad Sullivan