Up and down the organization, there are numerous roster decisions that will be made in the coming days and weeks. At the major league level, established starters are getting healthy and returning to the active roster. Down on the farm, a number of players are heating up and may deserve promotions.

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Now that we're almost a quarter of the way into the season, I think it's about time that we start re-evaluating our top 10 prospects given the new information contained in their 2007 performances. I also posted this analysis over on the A's scout.com message board (good board for prospect info and statistical analysis).

As a system, I'd have to say that 2007 has begun on a decidedly disappointing note. Underperformances have outweighed overperformances by our top prospects. Below is my updated organizational top 10. Dallas Braden and Travis Buck have been left off the list as they are currently on the big league roster.

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Interesting development from Vegas and the Internet Sports Books in the last couple of hours here. On tradesports.com, the A's to win has moved from 49.5% to 50.5% likely, making the A's the very slight favorites. More significantly, the likelihood of hitting the over on the 8.5 run over/under line has moved from 51% to 56%, a truly enormous move given the lack of any new public information here recently.

Do the insiders know something that we don't here? Why is the money going so hard to the over? What does this mean for the A's chances?

In my novice sports bettor opinion, I'd say that this has to do with Verlander in some way, since he's considered the better starter. Interesting development, at least....

First of all, I have 4 extra tickets for Friday's game in Section 106 and 4 tickets for Saturday's game in Section 231. I bought 6 for each game when they went online thinking a bunch of people in my dorm would want to go, but it's too expensive for most people.

Anyway, I'm selling them for exactly what I paid for them, $55 for Friday and $35 for Saturday. It really sucks that tickets are going for $100+ from scalpers due to the reduced capacity, so I'd much rather sell the tickets to real A's fans at face value.

If interested, email me at jrube@stanford.edu

Secondly, and mostly because I'd hate to create a diary solely about selling tickets, a few observations from today's game:

-Zito is really pitching on fumes right now, making his performance all the more admirable. His best fastball of the day was 88 mph, following the Rondell White home run. Most of the day he was topping out at 85 or 86, with a bunch of 84 mph heaters thrown in there. Like the true pro he is, however, Zito was masterful with his offspeed pitches, getting the curve over for strikes and locating his change.

-I thought Ellis looked really nervous at the plate and never really got comfortable up there. That said, he was stellar with the glove as usual.

-If Chavez continues to look like he's never played baseball before at the plate and the Twins start to pitch around Big Frank, do you consider putting Swisher in the 5 spot?

No word yet on which players are going from New York to Philadelphia in return.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2534459

Not sure if this impacts the market for Zito or Soriano in anyway, a lot depends on the type of package that Philly receives.

(Filling space) From today's SF Chron:

Beane nearly provided Zito with a shock to the system after the game, motioning to him that he needed to speak with him privately, then telling him what a great job he'd done rather than the GM's first inclination: He'd planned to joke that Zito was being traded.

"I think Billy was going to yank my chain, but then he decided not to,'' Zito said with a grin. "I don't think I would have taken him seriously, anyway.''

Zito said he believes Beane would keep him informed if he was going someplace else, and Beane said both before the game and afterward that he doesn't think the A's will make a major deal.

"We have nothing going on, there's nothing there and we're not trying to drum up business, anyway,'' he said.

Beane has said similar things in previous years and each time has gone on to make some midseason move. And, while the A's also need Zito, especially with Rich Harden out indefinitely, the free-agent-to-be is highly coveted by some prospect-rich teams. He's considered the top left-hander available, and the Mets and the Yankees, two of the most high-profile clubs seeking starters, had scouts at the game.

With the A's offense continuing to struggle, it may be time to consider letting the Daric Barton era begin. Barton's performance in Sacramento has been nothing short of remarkable for a 20-year old (turns 21 in August). Here is his line through 68 at bats:

AVG: .353
OBP: .488
SLG: .559
ISO: .206
BB: 18
K: 11
2B: 2
3B: 3
HR: 2

A few things stand out. Obviously first has to be the On-Base Percentage, standing at .488, as well as the BB/K ratio of 18:11. Barton has consistently demonstrated a command of the strike zone that would rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Second would be Barton's emerging power, which has been the largest knock on him thus far. Let's look at Barton's 2005 stats:

A+ Stockton (292 AB):

AVG/OBP/SLG: .318/.438/.469
ISO: .151

AA Midland (212 AB):

AVG/OBP/SLG: .314/.410/.491
ISO: .177

This is extremely positive news in Barton's development. It seems as though the theory that power is the last tool to develop is holding true with Barton. Furthermore, Barton sacrificed some OBP for increased power during his stint at Midland; this has not been the case in AAA, with Barton's OBP standing well over 100 points above his batting average.

Returning to the original question: Is it time for Daric Barton to be called up to Oakland? The criteria for bringing him up to the big club, in my mind, should be whether Barton currently represents a marked improvement over whoever's ABs he would be taking -- if he's only "a little better" right now, it's probably not worth it.

So how good would Barton be? At the beginning of the year, PECOTA 50th percentile prediction was .263/.343/.395 for an OPS of .738, certainly not enough to justify taking ABs from Dan Johnson or Jay Payton.

However, Barton's performance over his first 68 ABs in AAA has undoubtedly changed that outlook. Barton's numbers have shown no deterioration despite advancing another level; rather, Barton has seemingly taken several steps forward and raised his game another level. If Barton can maintain his current performance through, say, 100-125 ABs, I would forecast him being able to hit .290/.400/.460 THIS YEAR.

Inserting those types of numbers into the lineup could be the impetus that puts the A's over the top this season.

My question to you, AN: If Barton continues to tear the cover off the ball, where do you play him? Is his defense at 1st base good enough to not be a complete liability out there? Can Frank Thomas make a start a week at 1B?

What if Beane had gone with the "other" approach and kept the Big 3 together?

We'd currently have Harden, Zito, Mulder and Blanton under contract with Hudson hitting free agency. Let's say Lew Wolff opens his wallet and extends Hudson for the 4yrs/$44 million that he got from Atlanta.

RHP T. Hudson $9.5 million (backloaded contract)
RHP Harden $500k
LHP Zito $8.5 million
LHP Mulder $7.5 million
RHP Blanton $300k

Street $300k
Duchscherer $300k
Saarloos $300k
Garcia $300k
Flores $300k
Rheinecker $300k
Another Reliever ???

C Melhuse $750k (would have to dump Kendall's contract, maybe have to eat a few million)
1B Swisher $300k
DH D. Johnson $300k
2B Ellis $1 million
SS Crosby $1 million
3B Chavez $9.5 million (his contract is backloaded as well)
LF Ethier $300k
CF Kotsay $7 million
RF Kielty $1 million

That's only about a $50 million payroll by my count... but there'd be no Barton coming along either.

Imagine how good this offense would be if Kendall was posting his career average .300/.390/.400, if Kotsay was producing his .290/.350/.450, and if Hatteberg was producing .280/.360/.440. Here is what the line-up should be doing based on career norms, OBP/OPS (followed by deviation of this year's actual production from career in parentheses):

Kendall .390/.790 (-130)
Kotsay .350/.800 (-70)
Crosby .360/.820 (~ +20)
Chavez .350/.850 (-30)
Johnson .360/.840 (+60)
Payton .330/.790 (+60)
Hatteberg .360/.800 (-90)
Swisher .350/.780 (~ flat, but less OBP & more SLG than expected)
Ellis .350/.750 (+60)

The players outperforming expectations are the young guns; meanwhile, Kendall, Hatteberg, Kotsay and Chavez are underperforming career averages (in that order).

-I think Chavez will continue to work his way toward his .850 career OPS level as his horrific start is faded into the larger full season of ABs.
-Likewise, if Kotsay can stay healthy, I think there's a good chance that he could catch fire and have a hot September.
-Unfortunately, I think the skills of Kendall and Hatteberg have regressed enough that their current true abilities are closer to this year's performances rather than their career averages.

Overall, the team is -120 points of OPS lower than career averages or what should be expected out of them. While this would seem to give hope that the offense is due to improve in September, if you consider Kendall and Hatteberg's performances this year to be indicative of their current true abilities, then the offense is producing +100 points of OPS over their heads. The truth likely lies somewhere in between, meaning that the offense will probably continue to be league average in September -- thus, for us to make the playoffs, it's going to have to be on the back of continued strong pitching.

Here's the line-up to use against Shrek, a RHP whose heater Kendall has about 0.000001% chance of catching up to:

Ellis
Kotsay
Crosby
Chavez
Johnson
Payton
Hatteberg
Swisher
Melhuse

This brings me to my final question for AN: if Kendall has really deteriorated into a .660 OPS player, what do we do with him for 2006 and 2007? The reality of the situation is that he's here for 2006 whether we like it or not, but I can't fathom 600 AB season of .660 OPS production. Moving him would require covering his salary, which we're not going to do -- hopefully BB will see the light and play Melhuse for 60 games against right-handed pitching next year.

THE PLOT THICKENS: Barton is not in tonight's line-up for Midland, which could mean he's on the way to Detroit for tomorrow's game. Please update this thread with developments -- methinks Billy has seen enough and heard Oaktoon/blee1134 enough.

Midland is currently trailing San Antonio 4-3 in the 5th inning. Jeremy Brown is 1-2, HR, 2 RBI, his 18th of the year and continuing his torrid hitting. Although he's old for the Texas league at 25, his stroke is really coming around -- I could see him making the major league team in the next year or two if he keeps hitting like this. (Must reach 300 characters)..................

Many people have bemoaned the farm system's relative lack of strength right now -- after all, it lost Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher, Dan Johnson and Huston Street to the major league team. Our current crop of minor league prospects certainly seems to be a little weaker than in years past, but not tremendously so. Looking up and down the list, I still see several major league regulars if not the depth of potential stars that there once was. And that is still very good compared to other farm systems throughout the league.

Here's my current top 10:

1. Daric Barton, AA Midland. Age 20. ETA: late 2006. 318/438/469 at Stockton, 290/382/473 at Midland. Impact bat who's still trying to find a defensive position, perhaps the top plate discipline in the minors with developing power. Adequate at 1B, rumors abound that he'll move to catcher or LF by the time he makes the big leagues. Projects to a 290/380/450 type rookie line, with potential to grow into a 310/420/540 hitter. Probably one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball.
2. Dan Meyer, AAA Sacramento. Age 24. ETA: early/mid 2006. I know, he's been bad this year, but he was injured. The fact remains that his track record is sterling -- there are those words again! Damn Billy Beane and Macha for saying in May that the team was fine b/c the players had track records. In 352 minor league innings before this year, Meyer had a 2.71 ERA with 381 K's against 87 BB's. If you claim higher levels of competition is his problem, in 61.1 innings at AAA Richmond last year, Meyer had a 2.79 ERA, striking out 60 while walking 25. The guy is still very, very good and project to be at least a left-handed Joe Blanton (4.40 rookie ERA) with the potential to one day post a sub-3.50 ERA.
3. Andre Ethier, AA Midland. Age 23. ETA: mid/late 2006. Ethier has established himself as a legit prospect this year after being left off many top-10's in the off-season, a testament to just how strong the system was last year. Just 23, Ethier is killing the AA Texas league, hitting 325/390/522 with 17 HR's and 44 XBH total. At 6-3 200, he's a good athlete with tools the scouts like; after hitting 313/383/442 in the Cal League last year, he now has a performance record to match. The only disconcerting aspect of his game is the low walk rate, drawing only 38 BB in 408 in ABs. Ethier projects to be a major league regular at a corner outfield position, with potential to be above average with the bat (290/350/490) as well as defensively.
4. Jairo Garcia, AAA Sacramento. Age 22. ETA: early/mid 2006. Garcia lit up the minors last year, rocketing from A-ball to the Major League club in his first season as a reliever. With an explosive mid- to upper-90s fastball, devastating slider and developing change, Garcia's pure stuff is among the best in the minors; the only thing that could hold him back is his control. Some will point to his 5.30 ERA in Sacramento as evidence that he's the next Jesus Colome, but Garcia has clearly been instructed by the A's brass to work on pounding the strike zone first and worry about results second. His peripheral numbers are ungodly good: 57 K's to 15 BB's in just 35 IP, good for a sick 14.66 K/9. Garcia could become anything from a major league closer to a below-average middle reliever who never quite lived up to his potential.
5. Javier Herrera, low A Kane County. Age 20. ETA: 2008. The A's most "projectable" prospect, Herrera is a true 5-tool player who has the potential to be an offensive and defensive star. Herrera lit up short-season A ball last year, posting a 331/392/550 line at Vancouver en route to becoming the Northwest League MVP. Herrera drops in the rankings slightly this year due to a good, but not great 281/375/451 performance in his first year of full season ball. The most encouraging thing is the OBP, which has taken a notable step forward, although the notorious free swinger still has a 39:89 BB/K ratio. Herrerra is still so young that he probably has at least two more full seasons in the minor leagues. Hard to say what he'll become in the big leagues (or if he'll even make it) since he's so far away, but his ceiling could be as an All-Star.
6. Kevin Melillo, AA Midland. Age 23. ETA: late 2006 or early 2007. A 5th round pick in the 2004 draft, Melillo hit well at Vancouver to the tune of 340/422/564 but was largely under the radar coming into this season. Starting at low A Kane County, Melillo hit 286/399/457 before being called up to high A Stockton, where he mashed so much (400/471/800) that he earned another quick promotion. He's hit the ground running in Midland, hitting 313/450/375 in 16 AB's. Reportedly nothing more than an average 2B, Melillo's calling card is his bat, which has been nothing short of remarkable so far this year. He has 17 HR's in 386 ABs this year, the same as Ethier (but 47 XBH to Ethier's 44) in 20 fewer ABs. His plate discipline is tremendous, as he has a 69:63 BB/K ratio over the three levels. Melillo's defense projects to be better than the all-hit, no-glove Todd Walker or Keith Ginter. If Melillo can improve with the glove and keep mashing they way he has, he could be the A's opening day 2B in 2007. A more realistic expectation might be as a solid PH and utility infielder who develops into the starting 2B after 2-3 years of ML experience (and Ellis is gone).
7. Dallas Braden, AA Midland. Age 21. ETA: late 2006 or early 2007. Braden is another guy who was off-the-radar coming into the season but has forced his way onto the organizational Top 10 list. After a nasty 2.68 ERA with a 64:11 K/BB ratio in 43 innings at Stockton, Braden was bumped up to AA Midland where he has performed decently. The lefty sports a 3.90 ERA at AA, with a 71:32 K/BB ratio in 97 innings -- the ratio is good, but the K/9 is less than ideal. Braden is a legit prospect due to his stellar performance this year and increase in velocity from the mid-80's up to the high-80's, but the deterioration in his peripheral numbers casts some doubt over whether he can become a solid ML starting pitcher or just a decent bullpen guy.
8. Cliff Pennington, low A Kane County. Age 21(?). ETA: late 2007 or 2008. Pennington was given an aggressive placement in Kane County, where he hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball but has acquitted himself well. There really isn't enough of a sample to rank him all that accurately, but I decided he's played enough to prove he belongs in the top 10 -- if he gets hot with the bat, he could force his way into the top 5. Regardless, expect either Pennington or Melillo to get significant playing time at 2B starting in 2007 or 2008.
9. Danny Putnam, high A Stockton. Age 22. ETA: late 2007.  (I'm partial to him b/c he's from Stanford - represent Danny.) Sandwich round pick from the 2004 draft, tabbed as a pure bat and average fielder who has done nothing to dispell either label. Currently hitting 303/395/467, Putnam has shown excellent ability to hit for average and get on base, although his current power output is somewhat lacking with exactly 39 XBH in 390 AB. Putnam will need to continue to hit in order to get to the major's, but he has a refined swing with an excellent approach. At the least, he'll become a useful left-handed PH and 4th/5th outfielder off the bench. However, if he's to become a ML regular, he'll need to develop some more power as it'll have to be his bat that gets him there.
10. Kurt Suzuki, high A Stockton. Age 22(?). ETA: late 2007 or 2008. A 2nd round pick from the 2004 draft, Suzuki was very impressive in his first big league Spring Training, showing plus mobility behind the plate, a strong throwing arm (threw out his first 5 base runners!) and a solid approach at the plate. His defense and game-calling have been questioned though recently, and it appears he'll have to improve in that area to become the guy that takes over for Jason Kendall. Has flashed a quick bat to go along with the great approach at the plate in hitting 271/388/431 with 8 HRs and 32 XBH in 332 ABs, but most impressive in the 56:52 BB/K ratio. Could become an above average ML starting catcher and at the least seems likely to make the major leagues as a useful backup catcher.

On the fringe:

11. Jason Windsor. Great control, average stuff. High 80's fastball with good command of all his pitches. Has struck a lot of guys out in the minors with his location, but questions over how his stuff projects to the major leagues. Probably not an ML starter but could easily become a useful middle relief type.
12. Richie Robnett. Toolsy first round pick from the 2004 draft has struggled in the first half of the year at high A Stockton but is really starting to come on of late. Strikes out a ton but takes his plenty of walks, and his ISO power is excellent. Ability to make consistent contact in question due to .258 batting average. If he can continue his recent strong performance through the end of the season, he should definitely sneak into the top 10 on projectability alone.
13. Jeremy Brown. Nothing more than a back-up catcher at this point, but could still develop enough to become an adequate stop-gap starter for part of a season until Suzuki or Powell is ready to take over full time.
14. Brant Colamarino. Power hitting 1B who was promoted to AAA from after lighting up Midland earlier in the year. Only hitting .266 at Sacramento, but his slugging is above .500 so could be a useful left-handed pinch hitter starting in 2006 or eventually even a part-time DH. Wouldn't be ready to play any type of significant role until he gets a year or two of big league experience under his belt.
15. John Baker. See #13.
16. Dustin Majewski
17. Jason Perry

Not enough data, but top 10 material:

Travis Buck
Craig Italiano
Jared Lansford
Landon Powell
Brian Snyder

2005's Most Disappointing: Brad Sullivan

The diary formerly known as, "Is it game time already?" or "What the hell am I going to do all day until the game starts?"

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I've been thinking about this subject for quite some time and I've come to the conclusion, as many before me have as well, that the current norm of bullpen usage in Major League baseball is sub-optimal. Like I mentioned, this topic has been discussed for quite some time, but the present construction of the A's bullpen lends itself to an interesting thought experiment -- and perhaps an extremely valuable blueprint for change during the second half of the season.

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http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20050713&c ontent_id=1130466&vkey=pr_oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak

Byrnes and Q for Kennedy and Witasick.

The pieces are falling into place. Payton is probably an upgrade over Byrnes -- better defense and hits righties better (we already have a guy who kills lefties in Kielty, so the Kielty/Byrnes platoon was redundant. Payton can also play center.

Then you look at Witasick vs. Bradford. Chadford is coming off a major injury and had become a ROOGY in the last few years. Witasick -- and it's definitely WitaSICK b/c his stats this year are off the charts -- has suddenly regained his mid-90s heater according to the latest Gammons article.

I like these moves, although losing Quintanilla sucks.

The trade winds are starting to swirl around our prized centerfielder... if you haven't seen it, here's the latest waste of 500 words from Ken Rosenthal.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/3708736

But while the troubling developments have throw AN into a tissy fit of doom and gloom, there's definitely a way to keep Kots around. And where there's a way, there's a will. Or something like that.

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Following suit with last week's diary regarding the Diamondbacks as potential trading partners, it occured to me that the Giants could be an equally good match come the deadline -- especially if Bonds can return this season.

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I believe...

...Kiko Calero will be the elite set-up man in the AL this year.

...Yabu will be cut at mid-season.

...Eric Chavez will hit .300 with 35 home runs, but his .420 OBP will be the most impressive part.

...Mark Ellis is going to be a big disappointment and end up as a late-inning defensive sub. (I'm still just not sold on his bat.)

...Ellis' replacement, Keith Ginter, will hit 20 HR's in 400 AB's.

...Nick Swisher will have a two-week stretch that will have people gawking, but will also at some point lose his starting job for a significant portion of the season.

...Justin Duchscherer will have a better ERA than Rich Harden, but Barry Zito's will be better than both. (3.50, 3.70, 3.35 respectively)

...Jason Kendall will bat .325 this year, with an .OBP over .400.

...Huston Street will break with the club and "only" have a season ERA of around 3.75-4.00, but will get several huge outs in September.

...after walking the bases loaded, Octavio Dotel will record the save in game 162 to bring the AL West pennant back to Oakland.

Other thoughts:

-I think the development of Nick Swisher is the single most pressing lineup issue heading into the season. Several lineup decisions are directly dependent upon his performance. His minor league track record is extremely inconsistent, and his Spring Training "performance" hasn't answered a lot of questions. He has K'd in 22 of 66 AB's -- that would put him on pace for a whopping 167 strikeouts in only 400 AB's -- and his BB rate has suffered as well. I'm actually going to jump on the Kielty bandwagon and predict he returns to 2002 form.

-If Swish proves that he can pick up where he left off in AAA, his AB's from 1B could be much more valuable than his OF contribution, especially when we face left-handed pitching. I'd love to see a Kielty-Byrnes-Swisher triumverate, in that order: Kielty setting the table with OBP and pop from the 2-hole, Byrnes and his 1.000+ OPS knocking runners in the 5-spot, and Swisher providing huge pop from the bottom of the order. (Could even throw Ginter in there for even more right-handed bang.)

One last question:

Does anyone know if there's a way around the blackout restrictions on MLB.TV? What do they use to determine your location, billing zip code or IP address?

I feel as though the so-called '26th roster spot' is going to come down to Hatteberg or Byrnes, whoever Billy decides to move. After looking at the numbers a little more closely, I think it would be unwise to trade Hatteberg.

We all know Hatty was absolutely exhausted at the end of the season. Through the end of August, he carried a pretty impressive line of .307/.390/.458, good for an .848 OPS. If you add in his propensity to see a lot of pitches per at bat plus his very low strikeout rate, he was a quite good hitter in 2004--even for a 1B.

Billy loves Scott and the veteran leadership he provides. However, in order to make room for Dan Johnson, someone must go. I'd like to see the following trade:

Eric Byrnes for Steve Trachsel or Jae Seo. (The Mets have expressed interest in Byrnes and also are pursuing Odalis Perez, though their GM stated they wouldn't sign him unless they could trade one of their starters--per ESPN insider.)

A solid starter for the rotation would allow us to start Meyer or Blanton in AAA and therby avoid starting one of their respective free agency clocks. The corner outfield spots would be manned by Swisher, Thomas and Kielty (who is a lock to revert toward his career numbers next year, take it to the bank). Dan Johnson can also play some corner outfield if needed but his main role will be to spell Hatteberg at 1B.

I love Eric Byrnes as much as the next A's fan; that said, you have to remember that 'Moneyball' is all about being unemotional. And, emotion aside, Byrnes sports a slightly above average bat with below average defense. A left-handed/right-handed platoon of Thomas and Kielty would easily be able to replace (and possibly surpass) Byrnes' offense with a SIGNIFICANT upgrade on defense, something important to consider now that our extreme groundball pitchers are gone.

It makes a lot of sense for 2005 and down the line--keeping Meyer out of 'Super 2' status could be worth millions in 201x.

Something kept nagging at me and keeping me awake last night (does that make me weird?)--we have 26 players for a 25-man roster.

I've got to think that we'll go with 12 pitchers (5 starters and a 7 man bullpen) considering we went with 7 relievers last year despite having all those inning-eaters in the rotation:

Zito
Harden
Haren
Blanton
Meyer

Dotel
Calero
Cruz
Bradford
Rincon
Duchscherer
Etherton/T. Johnson/Harrikala

This is with Street and Garcia starting the year in AAA. Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Etherton was the 5th starter for 3 months while Meyer gains seasoning in AAA (thereby avoiding 'Super 2' status and delaying his free agency clock) but that's neither here nor now.

This leaves 13 spots for position players. Your nine starters:

Kendall
Hatteberg
Ginter
Crosby
Chavez
Byrnes
Kotsay
Swisher
Durazo (DH)

There are now four spots left. Problem is, we've got five guys whose roster spots we've penciled in:

Thomas
Kielty
Melhuse
Ellis/Scutaro
Dan Johnson

I can't see us going without a backup catcher, so Melhuse stays. We need a backup middle infielder, so either Ellis or Scutaro will be on the roster. Thomas is a lock. Kielty was tendered a contract, hard to imagine they'd send him down.

That leaves Dan Johnson, 2004 PCL MVP. His ZIPS projected OPS is higher than Hatteberg's but Hatte's not going anywhere since Beane is so loyal to him. Sending DJ back to AAA seems pointless, he's got nothing left to prove at that level.

26 players. 25 spots.

Take a look at this breakdown of the trade from a Cardinals fan...if you ever wanted inside Billy Beane's head, this is as close as you'll ever get.

Moneyball tells us that we must leave emotional attachments at the door. "Going for it all" in 2005 was never realistic, it's just not in the M.O. of the Oakland A's. There's no sense in mortgaging your entire future on one season when you can position yourself to succeed for the next five.

If the young guns come out firing, we'll contend for the division title in 2005. Worst case, we're going to be damn good from 2006 through 2009. I'll take that.

This is required reading for all A's fans:

------

Twelve months ago this deal would've made a lot of sense. As we all recall, the Cards were coming off an 85-win season, a rotten 3rd place season. They were dealing from a position of relative weakness. Mark Mulder had pitched quite well--not truly great, mind you--for 3 years running. Dan Haren had not pitched effectively above AA yet, and Kiko Calero was recovering from a nasty injury. Daric Barton hadn't played above rookieball--though his season in the Appy League was stellar enough to rate him #37 among all prospects on one prominent list.

But right now? Mulder is perhaps damaged goods (but maybe not so badly hurt that it shows up on a physical...you know, kinda like Matty Mo last year), Haren has one more good & healthy year under his belt, Kiko was excellent again, and with Tampa Bay uberprospect B.J. Upton having turned 20, Daric Barton is currently the best teenage hitter of baseballs on planet Earth.

And the Cards are dealing from a position of strength. They can choose the best deals, like Polanco for $4-5M a year, and maybe a bargain price on guys like Lugo and Millwood, among others. Maybe a trade for someone like Kip Wells. Something along those lines. But today's trade smacks of something, well, something almost like desperation--two young cheap pitchers who will help you this year, plus the best young hitter in the world, literally, for a starter who may or may not be 100% healthy, and was not a truly great pitcher even when he was healthy.

Today is the lowpoint of Walt Jocketty's otherwise outstanding career as a Redbird GM. In 2 or 3 years this will almost certainly be seen as a very poor trade for the Cardinals. In 5 years it will likely be viewed as one of the worst trades in the history of baseball. I know that's harsh, but here's why:

Mark Mulder slid into something just slightly better than mediocrity last year (his ERA+ was 106; Jeff Suppan last 6 year=105), and was clearly injured down the stretch. (What did LaRussa say? Part of the reason Mulder's late-season ERA was nearly 8.00 was the "high quality of Mulder's opposition?" Is that some sort of a joke?) Moreover, he's starting the portion of his career where he gets VERY expensive--whoever pays his salary for the next few years will unfortunately be indirectly soaked for the very good 2001-2003 version of Mulder...no matter how much of a Morris-like decline Mulder may be about to endure.

Dan Haren is young and cheap and has thrown about 550 innings over the past three years without a hint of injury. By 2006 or 2007 he'll quite possibly be as good or better than Mark Mulder. Kiko Calero everyone knows about. Also very cheap and outstanding back-to-back sub-3.00 ERA's. Tough on both lefties and righties--and extra hard on the Cubs and Astros, by the way.

And then there's Daric Barton.

Back in October a very reputable forecaster called Daric Barton the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Not #10 or #13. Number one. This same minor league analyst was the ONLY person anywhere to pick a NY Mets A-ball 3rd baseman named David Wright #1 back in October of 2003, so there's a pretty good chance he knows what the heck he's talking about.

Many times I've droned on and on about how Daric Barton is hitting like no 18-year-old ballplayer has in at least 25-30 years, so I won't rehash any of that here. Let's just say that if anyone wants to give me 10-1, I'll wager Barton wins an MVP award some day.

When Barton is a good major league hitter at 20 or 21, and a great hitter by 24 or 25, some Card fans will say, Hey, who could've known the kid would have this great a bat? Well believe me, folks, it's right there in front of anyone who bothers to look.

So in the long run the deal is a disaster. I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever in that regard, because of how many tens of millions of dollars Haren & Barton would've saved the Birds, and how much above his real value Mulder will cost to keep. (When I say "tens of millions" I mean that if Haren pitches like a #3 starter for the next 4-5 years, his total salary cost will be perhaps $15-20M less than a comparable free agent [the going rate this off-season is $7M a year for guys like Jon Lieber, Kris Benson(!), and Jaret Wright]. Daric Barton will very likely be an all-star by his 3rd or 4th season. If he hits like Miguel Cabrera, for instance, he'll save the A's roughly $30-40M over his first 6 years.)

In the short run, Mulder will help the team in 2005 more than Haren+Calero only if he (Mulder) returns to his '01-'03 form--and even then he'll cost so much more than the other two combined that he (Mulder) might prevent the Cards from getting the right middle infielders.

Folks, we got took.

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Here's the link for anyone that wants to read the entire thread:

http://mb3.scout.com/fstlouiscardinalsfrm1.showMessageRange?topicID=5241.topic&start=50&stop =50

is the smartest part of this whole thing.

Grover, your theory that we could have gotten another top-5 prospect from the Braves had they been given a chance to negotiate with Hudson is really, really wrong.

Carl Pavano, with a career LOSING RECORD, just got $10 mil/yr for 4 years from the Yanks. Pedro and his 90% destroyed shoulder, just got $14 mil/yr for 4 years from the Mets.

Let's say Beane had granted Atlanta the negotiating window. What happens when Huddy's agent looks at the market and says, "Tim wants 5 years at $15 mil/yr."

Why should Pedro get more per year than Hudson when Hudson's been better than Pedro for the last two years? Is Pedro going to get better all of sudden with a shoulder than looks like Normandy beach at age "33"?

Hudson was on track for a 3.00 ERA in the AL before injury. When he wins 22 games next year with a 2.65 ERA for ATL (while hitting .260 lol) and wins this award called the Cy Young, his market value is going to be insane.

Paul Cohen, Huddy's agent knows this full well. Why would he sign an extension with Atlanta now for anything less than top dollar when the Yankees or Red Sox will give him the moon after his 2005 season?

So answer this now, Grover: Why should Beane have ever, ever allowed Atlanta a negotiating window? It would have killed all of Huddy's trade value to see what it's gonna take to resign him.

There's no way we could have afforded to resign Hudson in this market. Billy got some great pieces in return. Meyer is gonna be a stud for the next 6 years and Cruz and Street will form a lights out 8th inning combo. Thomas gives us a ton of flexibility: he and Byrnes could become a dynamite OF platoon, or we can now trade Byrnes at the height of his value.

When we win the West in 2005, I'm making every single one of you profess your love for the great Billy Beane.

At this point, there's no doubt in my mind that DePo and the Dodgers are the best trading partners right now. They're desperate for a #1 starter and have the young, pre-arbitration players that we'd want in return

The nucleus: Edwin Jackson and Yhency Brazoban.
The deal maker: Antonio Perez or other AA/AAA level prospect.

Edwin Jackson has ace potential, and is good ML starter right now. Switching Huddy for Jackson in next year's rotation is a negative but if Jackson can pull a Rich Harden 2004, you're only looking at a 10-15 run dropoff.

Longterm, this is a huge windfall for the A's. Assuming Jackson develops into AT LEAST a #2 type starter, having him under control for 6 years is a beautiful thing. His only downside is that he was injured last year

Yhency Brazoban was a stud reliever in the Dodgers bullpen last year. Sub 3 ERA. 2 years until arbitration, 5 years until free agency. Brazoban would be an immediate upgrade in the A's bullpen as the 8th inning setup guy. His acquisition makes our pen very strong: Dotel closing, Brazoban and Street in setup, Bradford and Rincon as the LH/RH tandem, Duchscherer/Lehr/Etherton in long relief. IMO, Brazoban represents a 10 run improvement.

At this point, you're nearly perfomance-neutral for 2005, and looking great beyond then.

As "the deal maker" I have Antonio Perez or a different AA/AAA prospect. (Dodger's signing of Jeff Kent means that Perez is blocked.) If Billy thinks Perez is ML ready and can put up a .740-.775 OPS, then he's the one we want, as that would represent a nice improvement over Scutaro/Ellis. Otherwise, find a AA prospect that Philadelphia would want and trade said player for the rights to Placido Polanco. Philly doesn't really need Polanco since they've got Chase Utley ready to go. Use $4 million of Hudson's $6.5 million salary to give Polanco a two-year, $8.75 million deal ($4/$4.75).

Oakland gets:

-Edwin Jackson
-Yhency Brazoban
-Antonio Perez/Other prospect that becomes Placido Polanco.
-Save $6 MM if we take Perez, $2.5 MM if we get Polanco.

LA gets:

-Tim Hudson
-John Baker/Jeremy Brown. These two are redundant in the Oakland system, since the catching job will go to either Suzuki or Powell by '07.

Jay "I love cheap young players"

Unless Gammons is totally full of it, this would be huge for us. The fact that a player of Giles' calibre is out on the table is a great sign for us--I'm willing to go on record, right now, that Giles would be the best pickup (within reason) that we could make this offseason (*to repeat: within reason).

Why? In my mind, it's all boils down to the value over replacement player concept. Now, I have no idea what Giles' actual VORP is, but I can't imagine a bigger upgrade at any position for us than what Giles would bring.

Everyone seems to think Ellis will be back at the start of the season, and better than ever. David Forst was quoted as saying that Ellis has a long way to go. His defense will still be a plus; offensively, he was bad before and now? Yikes. As far as Scutaro, he was barely average defensively and pretty bad with the bat last year; the best part about him is that always makes the routine play.

So that leaves us with the not-at-all-unlikely scenario of having a black hole at 2B again in 2005.

AN, let me introduce you to Marcus Giles, aka The Holy Grail.

Young. Cheap. Entertaining as hell. A plus glove at 2B in addition to a career .850+ OPS (even factoring in his injured 2004 campaign). The only risk is that he's coming off an injury but don't confuse him with Austin Kearns: Giles does not have a history of being hurt.

So we're looking at the potential to go from Scutaro's .690 OPS or Ellis' .710 (average of 2002 and 2003) to Giles' .850, while maintaining or improving on defense. That is huge.

Compare that to acquiring Kearns for one of the Big 3 instead. Not only does that block Swisher from getting a starting role, it doesn't represent as much of a marginal benefit. Gammons' article today predicts about an .800 OPS for Swisher--I think that could easily be closer to .820. Replacing Swisher with Kearns and his .850-.875 production would be an improvement, but not by as much as we should expect if we're gonna give up one of the Big 3.

Oh, one more thing: having Zito's money off the books will help us resign Hudson.

Value over available replacments. Marginal benefit. Great concepts, and the exact reasons why Billy should jump at the chance to get Giles.

If Beane could get either of these guys, there'd be no doubt in my mind that he's a god.

I'm also using Mark Mulder as the trade bait in these scenarios, because a) I think we should resign Hudson, b) Mulder has an extremely high perceived value, c) he will be the hardest to resign. Zito or Huddy could easily fit, too.

Scenario #1, very unlikely: Oakland acquires Miguel Cabrera, AGE 21(!), .294/.366/.512. Can play either corner outfield postion, plus 3B, huge and cheap rh bat. At 21, the sky's the limit for Cabrera; however, Florida would be out of their minds to trade him.

How: Oakland gets Miguel Cabrera and Tom Gordon. New York Yankees get Mark Mulder and Arthur Rhodes. Florida gets Javier Vazquez (80% paid), Jason Giambi (80% paid), Brad Sullivan, Bobby Kielty, top Yankees prospect.

Payroll impact: Oakland takes on a small difference b/w Gordon and Rhodes, $1 million(?), but Mulder's money is freed up. Florida takes on 4 million: 20% of Vazquez and Giambi's 20 mil. New York doesn't care.

Is everyone willing? Oakland gets a star in the making and bullpen help for Mulder, hell yeah. Florida would be dumb to trade Cabrera, though.

Scenario #2: Oakland acquires Jason Kendall and Craig Wilson. Everyone knows that Beane loves Kendall, and Wilson has some nice OF pop.

How: Oakland gets Jason Kendall (10% paid by PIT, 60% paid by NYY), Craig Wilson and Tom Gordon. New York Yankees get Mark Mulder and Arthur Rhodes. Pittsburgh gets Javier Vazquez (80% paid), Jason Giambi (80% paid), John Baker, Bobby Kielty, top Yankees prospect.

Payroll impact: Oakland taken on 30% of Kendall's contract and difference between Gordon and Rhodes, while dropping Mulder. Pittsburgh gets out from under Kendall's contract, and thus still comes out ahead after picking up the rest of Vazquez and Giambi.

Is everyone willing? Mulder (and Rhodes!) for Kendall, Wilson and Gordon...I'd do it. Pittsburgh adding a 35 HR firstbaseman, a frontline starter, a replacement corner outfielder and prospects for Kendall and Wilson...they'd do it to get rid of Kendall's contract.

Anyway, you gotta think Beane can swing a 3-way trade with the Yankees. It's going to cost NYY to get rid of those contracts, but they were just going to be albatrosses, anyway. It'll be interesting to see what happens....

Alright, AN...inaugural diary.

I've been reading all the posts with hypothetic acquisitions and frankly, 95% of them have no chance in hell of ever happening. The whole point of these discussions are to come up with ways to improve the team that MAKE SENSE.

So in order to focus our discussion, I'd like to partition all the possible trades out there into two basic categories:

#1: We give up prospects for an ML player. This would probably involve a non-contending team as they value future potential considerably more than what a player can produce next year.

#2: We send off a big leaguer to get another big leaguer. Most likely, this involves a team that is going to be a playoff contender next year.

To illustrate, these guidelines preclude such ludricrous trades as Redman and Hatteberg to Tampa for Aubrey Huff, or Rhodes and Kielty to Montreal/Washington for Brad Wilkerson (exaggerated examples). Enough.

Ok, now that this has been established, let's look at how Oakland can get better for next year. One popular option is trading either Mulder or Zito but remember, the object is to get unambiguously better. Yes, we can get a big bat in return for one of those guys; however, the benefit to the offense is likely to be offset by the damage to our pitching.

The only big enough RH bat within our salary range that would be worth giving up Zito or Mulder is Adam Dunn and it's highly questionable that Cinci would trade him even for a former Cy Young winner. I'd like to know how the rest of AN feels about the likelihood of getting our hands on Dunn.

So this basically leaves us with a couple options: either trade a couple of our big leaguers to a contender with a need or give up prospects for someone that can help us now (i.e. Teahan for Dotel). If we're talking about trading our big leaguers, I'd say that Durazo, Byrnes, Redman, Rincon, Bradford and Hatteberg have value, in that order. Rhodes is worthless.

Unfortunately, we pretty much can't afford to trade Durazo and his .900+ OPS when we have him for another year under arbitration. (Ortiz's new contract and monster year is helping us enormously.)  I'd venture that the only feasible ML trade would be a Redman-Byrnes-Rincon package, and even that group would only garner interest from playoff contenders.

We've got a bunch tradable prospects at our disposal but most of the ones with value are the guys we wouldn't move: Herrera, Robnett, Street, Garcia, Swisher, Blanton. Not sure how highly people think of Sullivan right now. At any rate, this is better left for another diary.

So I guess, in the end, there are only a couple truly realistic scenarios that would definitely make us better: mortgage the future and give up a couple stud prospects or get Adam Dunn at the price of Zito/Mulder.

My prediction: Beane plays it safe this winter, resigns Byrnes, Durazo and Dotel, bolsters the bullpen and waits for the trading deadline when he's got more leverage.

Jay