SB Nation User Blog: NP15

Roster Thoughts

NP15 — Tue, 29 May 2007 06:47:23 -0000

Up and down the organization, there are numerous roster decisions that will be made in the coming days and weeks. At the major league level, established starters are getting healthy and returning to the active roster. Down on the farm, a number of players are heating up and may deserve promotions.

Oakland A's:

-Outfield:

What happens when Kotsay and Bradley come off the disabled list? Clearly, Bocachica gets designated for assignment and goes back to Sacramento (assuming he clears waivers). My guess would be that Donnie Murphy gets optioned back to AAA to clear the second roster spot. However, that leaves us with 5 outfielders: Kotsay, Bradley, Swisher, Buck and Stewart.

In the beginning, there is probably enough playing time to go around as Kotsay will get regular days off and Buck's wrist/elbow can be given an extended rest to heal up. Eventually, this situation might prove too crowded. Buck, once healthy, needs to play every day. He's proven he can hit at the major league level in a big way, and sitting on the bench will only stunt his growth as a player.

Stewart is definitely the 5th outfielder in this group and will need to get accustomed to a drastically reduced role; besides, his sub-.700 OPS doesn't deserve to be leading the team in plate appearances.

-Pitchers

Duchscherer's return to the active roster means that someone from the group of Colby Lewis, Erasmo Ramirez or Ron Flores gets sent down. My bet is on the lefty Ramirez.

That said, I'm personally of the opinion that Calero needs a vacation on the 15-day DL. The guy is simply not getting the job done right now. I don't know if he's hurt or just struggling, but this might be a good time to get him right again.

Minor Leagues:

Brian Snyder: Snyder is killing AA and making a strong bid to be reinstated as a real prospect.... he is batting .311/.406/.538 for a .944 OPS. Already 25 years old, this is a make or break year for Snyder. A third baseman throughout his professional career until this season, which has seen him move to second base. However, with Kevin Melillo entrenched at the second baseman at Sacramento, is there room to promote him? A Snyder promotion would probably mean the release of J.J. Furmaniak.

Gregorio Petit: The 22-year-old defensive whiz has shown great improvement with the bat in 2007, batting .327/.378/.430 at AA Midland. His offensive stats have been even more impressive in May, sitting at .345/.427/.512 (.939 OPS). Now here's where things get complicated: Petit is probably a year young for his level, so he doesn't need to be promoted the way Snyder does. Furthermore, the Sacramento middle infield is already set with Donnie Murphy and Melillo (plus the possible addition of Snyder). But, there's another rising shortstop in the system who is knocking on the door for a AA promotion. You guessed it......

Cliff Pennington: The former 1st round pick is back and playing like a real prospect again. His poor April (.690 OPS) wasn't shocking considering his terrible 2006 and severe hamstring injuries. May has put Pennington back on the map, as he's hit .282/.385/.456 (.842 OPS) with an outstanding 18/10 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Pennington has the talent and tools to handle an aggressive mid-year promotion to Midland. Furthermore, going back to his home state of Texas could be an additional impetus for his re-emergence. I think you leave Pennington in Stockton until he gets his average up to the .290 range, but if he stays this hot you gotta bump him up and play him alongside Petit as soon as July 1st.

Other notes/thoughts:

• Daric Barton has started to show signs of life in AAA, recovering from a terrible April to hit .277/.409/.468 in May (.877 OPS). His plate discipline has been excellent as always, with an amazing BB/K ratio of 20/12. The power is coming around as well, with 7 2B, 1 3B and 3 HR's in the month. If Barton can bring his average up a little more, the walk rate and IsoP are looking quite good.

• Javier Herrera is another May resurrection story. Terrible in April with a .207/.293/.264 line (.557 OPS) after missing all of 2006. Back with a vengeance in May, batting .321/.398/.617 for a 1.017 OPS. A scouting report over at John Sickels' minorleagueball.com blog said he looks like a superstar, cannon arm and plus defense in center. One more month of mashing and I think he gets promoted to AA.

• Where is Snelling? There has been no news on him whatsoever, extremely strange considering his 15 days on the DL have passed. Joking aside, I think there's a real chance that he's actually dead. I'm worried.

• Provided that he gets some consistent rest (15-day DL?) when Kotsay and Bradley return, I sure as heck hope that Buck's wrist/elbow problems are given time heal up. The guy is a star in the making and will be a fixture in our outfield for the next 6 years. I see him as a .290/.380/.500 hitter, with the potential to hit .300 and knock out 25 homers.

First 2007 Prospect Ranking Thread

NP15 — Tue, 15 May 2007 00:07:05 -0000

Now that we're almost a quarter of the way into the season, I think it's about time that we start re-evaluating our top 10 prospects given the new information contained in their 2007 performances. I also posted this analysis over on the A's scout.com message board (good board for prospect info and statistical analysis).

As a system, I'd have to say that 2007 has begun on a decidedly disappointing note. Underperformances have outweighed overperformances by our top prospects. Below is my updated organizational top 10. Dallas Braden and Travis Buck have been left off the list as they are currently on the big league roster.

Daric Barton. Still top prospect, but luster is fading fast with another disappointing start in AAA. Batting only .222/.325/.375 for a .700 OPS. Patience and ISO are about as expected, but batting average is well below his prior track record. I'm still a believer, but Barton will need to elevate his performance over the rest of the year if he wants a spot on the 2008 roster. I think he'll end up hitting .305/.420/.460 for the year in AAA.

Kurt Suzuki. Appears to be playing himself into significant playing time as the A's 2008 catcher. Batting .294/.370/.389 for a .759 OPS. Suzuki has demonstrated the ability to hit for average at every level of the minors during his professional career, although his BB/K has deteriorated thus far at 14/29 in 2007. In order to earn that starting catcher's job in '08, Suzuki will have to maintain a .300 batting average and .380-.400 OBP for the remainder of the year in AAA.

Danny Putnam. Surprise call-up from AA acquitted himself reasonably in ML stint. Was injured for most of 2006 but excellent September performance, plus .327/.386/.615 line at AA Midland to open the 2007 season has boosted his stock. Although considered strictly a left fielder on draft day due to average speed and arm, Putnam has apparently improved enough defensively to be adequate at all three outfield spots. That flexibility increases his value as a prospect signficantly.

Donnie Murphy. Six year minor league free agent was signed away during the offseason from the Royals organization, who drafted him out of high school. Murphy was rushed up to the majors at age 22 after putting up an .885 OPS at AA Wichita. Now, still only 24, Murphy is tearing up AAA at .348/.413./543 clip -- good for a .957 OPS. Although it's unlikely Murphy can sustain a .348 batting average with 25 strikeouts in 92 at bats, Murphy has hit for high average in the past (.313 at AA in 2005) and is showing excellent power so far this year (13 XBH in 92 at bats). With the flexibility to play 2B, SS or 3B, Murphy's 2007 performance has him looking like a potential steal and contributor on Oakland's 2008 roster.

Jermaine Mitchell. 2006 draftee hit well in short-season ball last year, and is known for his plus defense in center field. Mitchell has started slowly on offense in 2007, hitting only .283/.377/.321 at Low-A Kane County. However, the Midwest League is traditionally a very difficult league for hitters and this year's cold weather certainly can't be helping. Just 22, Mitchell is still looking like a solid prospect if he can get his power stroke going and continue to get on base.

Ryan Webb. Tall righty, drafted in 2005 out of high school, was yet to have shown any type of above average performance in professional baseball. 2007 has the makings of a breakout year for Webb in High-A Stockton, despite playing in the notoriously hitter-friendly California League. In 8 starts, Webb has posted a 3.99 ERA with outstanding component numbers: 45 K, 13 BB, 38 H, 5 HRA over 49.2 IP, good for a 1.03 WHIP.

Gregorio Petit. Venezuelan defensive whiz is holding his own in AA at age 22, hitting a solid .293 through 123 at bats. Patience and power have been less than ideal, as Petit OBP/SLG is only .333/.333. His .666 OPS should move north as his power and patience move closer to his career averages. Petit is another prospect that I personally like, and I wouldn't be shocked if he finishes 2007 with a .290/.350/.450 line. A solid young prospect who is performing well for his age relative to his league.

Kevin Melillo. Second baseman has shown excellent on-base skills out of the leadoff spot for AAA Sacramento, hitting .284/.382/.439 thus far in 2007. Melillo projects to be a .750-.800 OPS second baseman with strong on-base skills. The only problem is that Donnie Murphy has more defensive versatility and has outperformed him thus far in 2007 at a younger age (24 vs. Melillo at age 25).

Brian Snyder. 2003 first round pick has been oft-injured over the last two years after a strong debut season in professional baseball. Knowing 2007 was a make-or-break year, Snyder has answered the challenge in a strong way, posting a .300/.388/.560 line over 100 at bats in AA Midland. Snyder has also added to his defensive versatility by learning second base in 2007. On the down side, Snyder is 25 years old and thus needs to mash all year. Nonetheless, if he can sustain this .948 OPS in 2007, Snyder might vault himself to the top of the A's organizational depth chart at second base.

Dan Meyer. Despite two injury-riddled years of abysmal performance, Meyer seems to be healthy again following off-season shoulder surgery. The results have been positive through 3 starts at AAA Sacramento, with reports of Meyer's velocity being back in the low-90's. Certainly, Meyer's performance over the last two years does not merit this spot. Yet, his 1.88 ERA through 18.0 IP and 17/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio at AAA is enough to at least see if he can regain his prior form.

The next five, 11-15:

Jared Lansford (good ERA in 2006, but poor strikeout numbers and early 2007 injury are working against him)

Javi Herrera (injured all of 2006 and off to a slow start at the plate in 2007... easily a top 3 prospect if he gets the bat going)

Trevor Cahill (2006 draft pick is still an unknown)

Connor Robertson (reliever has done nothing but strike people out at every level of the minors)

Jeff Baisley (following up monster 2006 at low-A with a very strong start in '07 following two level jump to AA Midland)

Others receiving consideration:

Cliff Pennington (bat heating up)
Jason Windsor (horrible start to 2007)
Landon Powell (bat heating up, rising fast)
Brad Knox (impressive early results at AAA after promotion)
Myron Leslie (getting on base but no power)
Richie Robnett (still striking out too much)
Michael Madsen (impressive early results at AA after promotion)
Santiago Casilla (still performing decently at AAA)
Chad Boyd (not hitting)
Vin Mazzaro (been up and down, but young for High A)
Todd Johnson
Andrew Bailey
Jason Ray (injured)
Scott Deal (still no strikeouts)
Justin Sellers (not hitting)
Thomas Italiano (been injured, then been lit up)
Henry Rodriguez

Late money going hard to the over (8.5 runs)

NP15 — Wed, 11 Oct 2006 23:56:11 -0000

Interesting development from Vegas and the Internet Sports Books in the last couple of hours here. On tradesports.com, the A's to win has moved from 49.5% to 50.5% likely, making the A's the very slight favorites. More significantly, the likelihood of hitting the over on the 8.5 run over/under line has moved from 51% to 56%, a truly enormous move given the lack of any new public information here recently.

Do the insiders know something that we don't here? Why is the money going so hard to the over? What does this mean for the A's chances?

In my novice sports bettor opinion, I'd say that this has to do with Verlander in some way, since he's considered the better starter. Interesting development, at least....

Playoff tickets + Random Observations

NP15 — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 04:55:14 -0000

First of all, I have 4 extra tickets for Friday's game in Section 106 and 4 tickets for Saturday's game in Section 231. I bought 6 for each game when they went online thinking a bunch of people in my dorm would want to go, but it's too expensive for most people.

Anyway, I'm selling them for exactly what I paid for them, $55 for Friday and $35 for Saturday. It really sucks that tickets are going for $100+ from scalpers due to the reduced capacity, so I'd much rather sell the tickets to real A's fans at face value.

If interested, email me at jrube@stanford.edu

Secondly, and mostly because I'd hate to create a diary solely about selling tickets, a few observations from today's game:

-Zito is really pitching on fumes right now, making his performance all the more admirable. His best fastball of the day was 88 mph, following the Rondell White home run. Most of the day he was topping out at 85 or 86, with a bunch of 84 mph heaters thrown in there. Like the true pro he is, however, Zito was masterful with his offspeed pitches, getting the curve over for strikes and locating his change.

-I thought Ellis looked really nervous at the plate and never really got comfortable up there. That said, he was stellar with the glove as usual.

-If Chavez continues to look like he's never played baseball before at the plate and the Twins start to pitch around Big Frank, do you consider putting Swisher in the 5 spot?

Yankees Acquire Abreu + Lidle

NP15 — Sun, 30 Jul 2006 18:02:26 -0000

No word yet on which players are going from New York to Philadelphia in return.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2534459

Not sure if this impacts the market for Zito or Soriano in anyway, a lot depends on the type of package that Philly receives.

(Filling space) From today's SF Chron:

Beane nearly provided Zito with a shock to the system after the game, motioning to him that he needed to speak with him privately, then telling him what a great job he'd done rather than the GM's first inclination: He'd planned to joke that Zito was being traded.

"I think Billy was going to yank my chain, but then he decided not to,'' Zito said with a grin. "I don't think I would have taken him seriously, anyway.''

Zito said he believes Beane would keep him informed if he was going someplace else, and Beane said both before the game and afterward that he doesn't think the A's will make a major deal.

"We have nothing going on, there's nothing there and we're not trying to drum up business, anyway,'' he said.

Beane has said similar things in previous years and each time has gone on to make some midseason move. And, while the A's also need Zito, especially with Rich Harden out indefinitely, the free-agent-to-be is highly coveted by some prospect-rich teams. He's considered the top left-hander available, and the Mets and the Yankees, two of the most high-profile clubs seeking starters, had scouts at the game.

Daric Barton: Is it time?

NP15 — Sat, 29 Apr 2006 19:07:20 -0000

With the A's offense continuing to struggle, it may be time to consider letting the Daric Barton era begin. Barton's performance in Sacramento has been nothing short of remarkable for a 20-year old (turns 21 in August). Here is his line through 68 at bats:

AVG: .353
OBP: .488
SLG: .559
ISO: .206
BB: 18
K: 11
2B: 2
3B: 3
HR: 2

A few things stand out. Obviously first has to be the On-Base Percentage, standing at .488, as well as the BB/K ratio of 18:11. Barton has consistently demonstrated a command of the strike zone that would rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Second would be Barton's emerging power, which has been the largest knock on him thus far. Let's look at Barton's 2005 stats:

A+ Stockton (292 AB):

AVG/OBP/SLG: .318/.438/.469
ISO: .151

AA Midland (212 AB):

AVG/OBP/SLG: .314/.410/.491
ISO: .177

This is extremely positive news in Barton's development. It seems as though the theory that power is the last tool to develop is holding true with Barton. Furthermore, Barton sacrificed some OBP for increased power during his stint at Midland; this has not been the case in AAA, with Barton's OBP standing well over 100 points above his batting average.

Returning to the original question: Is it time for Daric Barton to be called up to Oakland? The criteria for bringing him up to the big club, in my mind, should be whether Barton currently represents a marked improvement over whoever's ABs he would be taking -- if he's only "a little better" right now, it's probably not worth it.

So how good would Barton be? At the beginning of the year, PECOTA 50th percentile prediction was .263/.343/.395 for an OPS of .738, certainly not enough to justify taking ABs from Dan Johnson or Jay Payton.

However, Barton's performance over his first 68 ABs in AAA has undoubtedly changed that outlook. Barton's numbers have shown no deterioration despite advancing another level; rather, Barton has seemingly taken several steps forward and raised his game another level. If Barton can maintain his current performance through, say, 100-125 ABs, I would forecast him being able to hit .290/.400/.460 THIS YEAR.

Inserting those types of numbers into the lineup could be the impetus that puts the A's over the top this season.

My question to you, AN: If Barton continues to tear the cover off the ball, where do you play him? Is his defense at 1st base good enough to not be a complete liability out there? Can Frank Thomas make a start a week at 1B?

What if...? A look back

NP15 — Wed, 30 Nov 2005 20:33:59 -0000

What if Beane had gone with the "other" approach and kept the Big 3 together?

We'd currently have Harden, Zito, Mulder and Blanton under contract with Hudson hitting free agency. Let's say Lew Wolff opens his wallet and extends Hudson for the 4yrs/$44 million that he got from Atlanta.

RHP T. Hudson $9.5 million (backloaded contract)
RHP Harden $500k
LHP Zito $8.5 million
LHP Mulder $7.5 million
RHP Blanton $300k

Street $300k
Duchscherer $300k
Saarloos $300k
Garcia $300k
Flores $300k
Rheinecker $300k
Another Reliever ???

C Melhuse $750k (would have to dump Kendall's contract, maybe have to eat a few million)
1B Swisher $300k
DH D. Johnson $300k
2B Ellis $1 million
SS Crosby $1 million
3B Chavez $9.5 million (his contract is backloaded as well)
LF Ethier $300k
CF Kotsay $7 million
RF Kielty $1 million

That's only about a $50 million payroll by my count... but there'd be no Barton coming along either.

The Offense and Career Averages

NP15 — Tue, 30 Aug 2005 02:53:46 -0000

Imagine how good this offense would be if Kendall was posting his career average .300/.390/.400, if Kotsay was producing his .290/.350/.450, and if Hatteberg was producing .280/.360/.440. Here is what the line-up should be doing based on career norms, OBP/OPS (followed by deviation of this year's actual production from career in parentheses):

Kendall .390/.790 (-130)
Kotsay .350/.800 (-70)
Crosby .360/.820 (~ +20)
Chavez .350/.850 (-30)
Johnson .360/.840 (+60)
Payton .330/.790 (+60)
Hatteberg .360/.800 (-90)
Swisher .350/.780 (~ flat, but less OBP & more SLG than expected)
Ellis .350/.750 (+60)

The players outperforming expectations are the young guns; meanwhile, Kendall, Hatteberg, Kotsay and Chavez are underperforming career averages (in that order).

-I think Chavez will continue to work his way toward his .850 career OPS level as his horrific start is faded into the larger full season of ABs.
-Likewise, if Kotsay can stay healthy, I think there's a good chance that he could catch fire and have a hot September.
-Unfortunately, I think the skills of Kendall and Hatteberg have regressed enough that their current true abilities are closer to this year's performances rather than their career averages.

Overall, the team is -120 points of OPS lower than career averages or what should be expected out of them. While this would seem to give hope that the offense is due to improve in September, if you consider Kendall and Hatteberg's performances this year to be indicative of their current true abilities, then the offense is producing +100 points of OPS over their heads. The truth likely lies somewhere in between, meaning that the offense will probably continue to be league average in September -- thus, for us to make the playoffs, it's going to have to be on the back of continued strong pitching.

Here's the line-up to use against Shrek, a RHP whose heater Kendall has about 0.000001% chance of catching up to:

Ellis
Kotsay
Crosby
Chavez
Johnson
Payton
Hatteberg
Swisher
Melhuse

This brings me to my final question for AN: if Kendall has really deteriorated into a .660 OPS player, what do we do with him for 2006 and 2007? The reality of the situation is that he's here for 2006 whether we like it or not, but I can't fathom 600 AB season of .660 OPS production. Moving him would require covering his salary, which we're not going to do -- hopefully BB will see the light and play Melhuse for 60 games against right-handed pitching next year.

Barton not in Midland Line-Up Tonight

NP15 — Wed, 24 Aug 2005 01:44:19 -0000

THE PLOT THICKENS: Barton is not in tonight's line-up for Midland, which could mean he's on the way to Detroit for tomorrow's game. Please update this thread with developments -- methinks Billy has seen enough and heard Oaktoon/blee1134 enough.

Midland is currently trailing San Antonio 4-3 in the 5th inning. Jeremy Brown is 1-2, HR, 2 RBI, his 18th of the year and continuing his torrid hitting. Although he's old for the Texas league at 25, his stroke is really coming around -- I could see him making the major league team in the next year or two if he keeps hitting like this. (Must reach 300 characters)..................

Re-Ranking the Top 10 A's prospects: Mid-Season Update

NP15 — Fri, 05 Aug 2005 21:29:13 -0000

Many people have bemoaned the farm system's relative lack of strength right now -- after all, it lost Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher, Dan Johnson and Huston Street to the major league team. Our current crop of minor league prospects certainly seems to be a little weaker than in years past, but not tremendously so. Looking up and down the list, I still see several major league regulars if not the depth of potential stars that there once was. And that is still very good compared to other farm systems throughout the league.

Here's my current top 10:

Daric Barton, AA Midland. Age 20. ETA: late 2006. 318/438/469 at Stockton, 290/382/473 at Midland. Impact bat who's still trying to find a defensive position, perhaps the top plate discipline in the minors with developing power. Adequate at 1B, rumors abound that he'll move to catcher or LF by the time he makes the big leagues. Projects to a 290/380/450 type rookie line, with potential to grow into a 310/420/540 hitter. Probably one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball.
Dan Meyer, AAA Sacramento. Age 24. ETA: early/mid 2006. I know, he's been bad this year, but he was injured. The fact remains that his track record is sterling -- there are those words again! Damn Billy Beane and Macha for saying in May that the team was fine b/c the players had track records. In 352 minor league innings before this year, Meyer had a 2.71 ERA with 381 K's against 87 BB's. If you claim higher levels of competition is his problem, in 61.1 innings at AAA Richmond last year, Meyer had a 2.79 ERA, striking out 60 while walking 25. The guy is still very, very good and project to be at least a left-handed Joe Blanton (4.40 rookie ERA) with the potential to one day post a sub-3.50 ERA.
Andre Ethier, AA Midland. Age 23. ETA: mid/late 2006. Ethier has established himself as a legit prospect this year after being left off many top-10's in the off-season, a testament to just how strong the system was last year. Just 23, Ethier is killing the AA Texas league, hitting 325/390/522 with 17 HR's and 44 XBH total. At 6-3 200, he's a good athlete with tools the scouts like; after hitting 313/383/442 in the Cal League last year, he now has a performance record to match. The only disconcerting aspect of his game is the low walk rate, drawing only 38 BB in 408 in ABs. Ethier projects to be a major league regular at a corner outfield position, with potential to be above average with the bat (290/350/490) as well as defensively.
Jairo Garcia, AAA Sacramento. Age 22. ETA: early/mid 2006. Garcia lit up the minors last year, rocketing from A-ball to the Major League club in his first season as a reliever. With an explosive mid- to upper-90s fastball, devastating slider and developing change, Garcia's pure stuff is among the best in the minors; the only thing that could hold him back is his control. Some will point to his 5.30 ERA in Sacramento as evidence that he's the next Jesus Colome, but Garcia has clearly been instructed by the A's brass to work on pounding the strike zone first and worry about results second. His peripheral numbers are ungodly good: 57 K's to 15 BB's in just 35 IP, good for a sick 14.66 K/9. Garcia could become anything from a major league closer to a below-average middle reliever who never quite lived up to his potential.
Javier Herrera, low A Kane County. Age 20. ETA: 2008. The A's most "projectable" prospect, Herrera is a true 5-tool player who has the potential to be an offensive and defensive star. Herrera lit up short-season A ball last year, posting a 331/392/550 line at Vancouver en route to becoming the Northwest League MVP. Herrera drops in the rankings slightly this year due to a good, but not great 281/375/451 performance in his first year of full season ball. The most encouraging thing is the OBP, which has taken a notable step forward, although the notorious free swinger still has a 39:89 BB/K ratio. Herrerra is still so young that he probably has at least two more full seasons in the minor leagues. Hard to say what he'll become in the big leagues (or if he'll even make it) since he's so far away, but his ceiling could be as an All-Star.
Kevin Melillo, AA Midland. Age 23. ETA: late 2006 or early 2007. A 5th round pick in the 2004 draft, Melillo hit well at Vancouver to the tune of 340/422/564 but was largely under the radar coming into this season. Starting at low A Kane County, Melillo hit 286/399/457 before being called up to high A Stockton, where he mashed so much (400/471/800) that he earned another quick promotion. He's hit the ground running in Midland, hitting 313/450/375 in 16 AB's. Reportedly nothing more than an average 2B, Melillo's calling card is his bat, which has been nothing short of remarkable so far this year. He has 17 HR's in 386 ABs this year, the same as Ethier (but 47 XBH to Ethier's 44) in 20 fewer ABs. His plate discipline is tremendous, as he has a 69:63 BB/K ratio over the three levels. Melillo's defense projects to be better than the all-hit, no-glove Todd Walker or Keith Ginter. If Melillo can improve with the glove and keep mashing they way he has, he could be the A's opening day 2B in 2007. A more realistic expectation might be as a solid PH and utility infielder who develops into the starting 2B after 2-3 years of ML experience (and Ellis is gone).
Dallas Braden, AA Midland. Age 21. ETA: late 2006 or early 2007. Braden is another guy who was off-the-radar coming into the season but has forced his way onto the organizational Top 10 list. After a nasty 2.68 ERA with a 64:11 K/BB ratio in 43 innings at Stockton, Braden was bumped up to AA Midland where he has performed decently. The lefty sports a 3.90 ERA at AA, with a 71:32 K/BB ratio in 97 innings -- the ratio is good, but the K/9 is less than ideal. Braden is a legit prospect due to his stellar performance this year and increase in velocity from the mid-80's up to the high-80's, but the deterioration in his peripheral numbers casts some doubt over whether he can become a solid ML starting pitcher or just a decent bullpen guy.
Cliff Pennington, low A Kane County. Age 21(?). ETA: late 2007 or 2008. Pennington was given an aggressive placement in Kane County, where he hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball but has acquitted himself well. There really isn't enough of a sample to rank him all that accurately, but I decided he's played enough to prove he belongs in the top 10 -- if he gets hot with the bat, he could force his way into the top 5. Regardless, expect either Pennington or Melillo to get significant playing time at 2B starting in 2007 or 2008.
Danny Putnam, high A Stockton. Age 22. ETA: late 2007. (I'm partial to him b/c he's from Stanford - represent Danny.) Sandwich round pick from the 2004 draft, tabbed as a pure bat and average fielder who has done nothing to dispell either label. Currently hitting 303/395/467, Putnam has shown excellent ability to hit for average and get on base, although his current power output is somewhat lacking with exactly 39 XBH in 390 AB. Putnam will need to continue to hit in order to get to the major's, but he has a refined swing with an excellent approach. At the least, he'll become a useful left-handed PH and 4th/5th outfielder off the bench. However, if he's to become a ML regular, he'll need to develop some more power as it'll have to be his bat that gets him there.
Kurt Suzuki, high A Stockton. Age 22(?). ETA: late 2007 or 2008. A 2nd round pick from the 2004 draft, Suzuki was very impressive in his first big league Spring Training, showing plus mobility behind the plate, a strong throwing arm (threw out his first 5 base runners!) and a solid approach at the plate. His defense and game-calling have been questioned though recently, and it appears he'll have to improve in that area to become the guy that takes over for Jason Kendall. Has flashed a quick bat to go along with the great approach at the plate in hitting 271/388/431 with 8 HRs and 32 XBH in 332 ABs, but most impressive in the 56:52 BB/K ratio. Could become an above average ML starting catcher and at the least seems likely to make the major leagues as a useful backup catcher.

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On the fringe:

Jason Windsor. Great control, average stuff. High 80's fastball with good command of all his pitches. Has struck a lot of guys out in the minors with his location, but questions over how his stuff projects to the major leagues. Probably not an ML starter but could easily become a useful middle relief type.
Richie Robnett. Toolsy first round pick from the 2004 draft has struggled in the first half of the year at high A Stockton but is really starting to come on of late. Strikes out a ton but takes his plenty of walks, and his ISO power is excellent. Ability to make consistent contact in question due to .258 batting average. If he can continue his recent strong performance through the end of the season, he should definitely sneak into the top 10 on projectability alone.
Jeremy Brown. Nothing more than a back-up catcher at this point, but could still develop enough to become an adequate stop-gap starter for part of a season until Suzuki or Powell is ready to take over full time.
Brant Colamarino. Power hitting 1B who was promoted to AAA from after lighting up Midland earlier in the year. Only hitting .266 at Sacramento, but his slugging is above .500 so could be a useful left-handed pinch hitter starting in 2006 or eventually even a part-time DH. Wouldn't be ready to play any type of significant role until he gets a year or two of big league experience under his belt.
John Baker. See #13.
Dustin Majewski
Jason Perry

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Not enough data, but top 10 material:

Travis Buck
Craig Italiano
Jared Lansford
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2005's Most Disappointing: Brad Sullivan