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May 04, 2009 Jan 13, 2012 23 1165
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Game Plan: How Carolina Can Beat Green Bay
Impossible, you say? How can the reigning Superbowl champion lose to the team that had the worst record in the NFL the prior year? Any...Given...Sunday...of course. Also, keep in mind that these two teams aren't exactly the same as how they ended the season last year. Okay, sure, Green Bay has already demonstrated they're firing on all cylinders with how they took apart the New Orleans Saints. But, if you look hard at that game, Drew Brees and company had a shot at taking that one, too. The Panthers would do well to learn from that. And I'm sure they've watched the game film.
More importantly, however, Carolina is the team that's undergone major changes since last year. It's not simply the addition of Cam Newton...though, obviously, having a new signal caller handling the ball on every snap is going to immediately lead to differences in how the team plays. Instead, I'm talking primarily about the change in the coaching staff. This game will come down to preparation and game planning. These are areas I felt like John Fox, Jeff Davidson, and the rest of last year's coaching staff really let us down on. And, so far, I really like what I'm seeing from Ron Rivera, Sean McDermott, and Rob Chudzinski. Their ability to prepare our guys and plan for this specific opponent will speak volumes about the future of this team. So, let's take a peek into the mindset of the Carolina coaching staff and see if we can identify ways they might attack this Green Bay team and come away with a win. I'll offer up my two cents...
...after the jump...
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Future Hall of Famer - Steve Smith?
After seeing a rejuvenated Steve Smith put up 178 yards and 2 TDs on the Arizona Cardinals defense this past week, it got me to wondering just how many yards he's accumulated over his career. And, given that, how close he might be to some serious consideration as becoming the Carolina Panthers first ever inductee into the NFL Hall of Fame. So, I did some quick checking and comparison on his peers (some long since retired and a handful that are still playing). I found it interesting. So, I thought I'd share what I learned and...as usual...my two cents on it all.
There's more...after the jump...
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My Two Cents - The Panthers Have Too Many Problems
So, last night's game (against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals) was supposed to be our dress rehearsal for the upcoming season? Based on what we saw, that's going to be a significant problem. After all, this team looked more like the understudies going through the motions of an NFL game than the star actors primed for a great performance (or even a good performance, or maybe just a mediocre one?). Simply put, this team has way too many problems right now to be very good this year...or even competitive. I realize there's only a handful of training camp practices and preseason games to judge things by so far. But, after prior years of seeing supposedly optimistic outlooks go down the drain after miserable preseason performances, I'm not so certain we can discount what we're seeing right now. I'll get into some of the reasons why, and the challenges the Panthers face after the jump...
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Cam Newton: Good Pick or Bad Pick?
I've been away and had little time to really engage much here at Cat Scratch Reader. I still follow along with the news and front page articles guys have posted now and then. I just haven't had time to get in and offer very many opinions this year. Just too much going on, not the least of which is that I opted not to renew my PSL this year. Doesn't mean I'm down on the Pathers or the change in coaching staff or anything. My life's just gone in some different directions and I'll be watching the games from home from now on.
Which brings me to some of the stuff I've been watching and hearing (whether on TV, sports talk radio, or various internet websites) about the Panthers' #1 pick this year. First, I think it's a really bad year to have the #1 pick. The labor union issues aside...as well as the on-again, off-again lockout...this is just a weird year filled with uncertainty. In addition, there aren't a lot of surefire prospects that you'd feel comfortable taking #1 overall. And, given all the needs the Panthers have (i.e., QB, DT, CB, WR1, WR2, RB, OL), you'd think there'd be somebody in this year's draft class they could pinpoint as a bonafide #1 pick. But I'm hard-pressed to find anyone I like enough spend that #1 pick on them.
That said, I keep hearing Cam Newton is the guy. And that's a very gray pick. Could be a bust. Could be an amazing future Hall of Famer. It all just depends. But there's enough "trusted sources" from so many, varied media outlets that it looks more and more like that's who Hurney, Rivera, and company are going to choose. With that in mind, I've been weighing the pro's and con's of having him as our QB and I've sort of distilled everything down to the following observations...which I've broken into two different mindsets: Why Cam Newton is a bad pick...and...why Cam Newton is a good pick. I'll get into the particulars of each viewpoint, after the break...
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Why Start Clausen?
My how the times have changed. Most fans favor giving Clausen his opportunity to start next week, and that includes most of those who supported Matt Moore initially. That seems really ironic to me, because there were so many people who felt Moore could have taken us to the playoffs if Fox had replaced Delhomme with him earlier last season. Be that as it may, Moore has two bad games, one of them possibly affected by a concussion, and both of them certainly affected by more factors than just his own play (i.e., lack of decent receiving corps, really bad O-line play, let downs on defense, really poor playcalling and game-time adjustments by the coaching staff, etc.). Regardless, I believe Clausen should start over Moore. Why? I'll get into it, after the jump...
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My Two-Cents on the Roster and Upcoming Season
Now that the draft has come and gone...training camp is over...preseason is done...and the 53-man roster is set (at least until we finish monitoring the waiver wire and filling out the practice squad), I thought it might be worthwhile to examine where we see ourselves as the Carolina Panthers for the 2010-2011 season. The way I see it, we're going into our schedule with a very young group of players. Now maybe that makes us leaner, hungrier, or more intense? Maybe it makes us better? Maybe it makes us worse? All I think we can really say right now is that it makes us different.
That's because this team has undergone a serious makeover compared to where we were last year. Does that make us better? You never know. Some say we have an easier schedule. I don't necessarily buy that. We'll find out just how easy it is once the season gets underway, because every team makes moves to improve themselves during the off-season. And that goes for us, too. Because I believe it became very evident last year that many of the players we had on the squad just weren't getting it done. We kept trying the same things...or we kept using the same players when we tried to do new things. And it wasn't good enough. So we chose to turn the page and shake things up prior to the potential lockout year.
So let's examine some of those changes and evaluate the future...
...after the jump...
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Will the Panthers Defense Be Ready in 2010?
There's been a fair amount of give-and-take debate on all the personnel changes the Panthers have willingly undergone in the offseason. A youth movement is in full swing. A lot of veterans were purged from the roster. We've got a crop of rookies coming in via the draft that we're looking to keep around. And a lot of young players who previously only served as backups being asked to step up into starting roles.
These changes could have a pretty dramatic effect on the Panthers' defense in 2010. From the departure of Julius Peppers to the release of Chris Harris and our DTs, that particular unit could be affected the most. Change can sometimes be for the better, whether short-term or long-term...and you've got to assume Carolina's front office knows that and these moves are designed to improve the team. But change can also come as a result of something bad, like a looming lockout and uncapped season...or the necessities of the "business side" of football in the NFL or a veteran's skillset starting to decline.
So let's take a look at the changes that have impacted the Carolina Panthers on defense for 2010 and attempt to realistically evaluate how "good" or "bad" some of those changes could pan out. More on this...after the jump...
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Expectations for Day Three (Rounds 4-7)
Okay. So, the Panthers have done their best yesterday, drafting players to fill needs on offense in Rounds 1-3. Will they now turn their attention to enhancing and shoring up their defense? There's still a lot of top quality players left on the board, many of whom no one expected to fall into the 4th round. Who might the Panthers be targeting? And who else might grab them before we do? Here's some analysis I put together this morning while reviewing the needs of teams who pick before us. And I'll get into it...after the jump...
Breaking Down the Panthers 2010 Schedule
Okay, so the NFL released the 2010 schedules for everyone. And, as we all know by now, the Panthers supposedly have one of the "easier" schedules based on the winning percentages of last year's teams. But a lot changes from year to year. Almost every season, you see about a 50% change-out on who makes the playoffs one season vs. who makes it the next season. For many, that's what makes the NFL so great. Parity. It means fans can renew their hope for seeing their team make a run for the Superbowl every year.
So, given that, what can really expect out of the 2010 Carolina Panthers, much less their upcoming opponents and any "breaks" or obstacles this year's schedule will bring. I'm going to make an attempt to run through some of the more obvious things that leap out at me. And, I'm going to do a very rough analysis of each opponent they'll face and what we might expect in terms of matching up with them, both the good and the bad. So, without any further ado, let's get into it...after the jump...
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Panthers Lose Coin Toss, But Win In Draft Order
Charles Chandler and Darin Gantt reported the Panthers lost the coin toss with the Tennessee Titans to determine who would pick first in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. The Panthers lost, which means the pick they traded to San Francisco will fall back in the draft order.
The order reverses itself after that in then 2nd round, which means the Panthers will pick earlier than they otherwise would have if they'd won the coin toss with Tennessee. So, the 49ers lost some ground (and will pick 17th instead of 16th). And the Panthers gained some ground (picking 47th instead of 48th).
Breaking Down Carolina's Running Game
ESPN's stats guy did a recent analysis of Carolina's re-energized running game. There's some interesting stuff in it. Enough so, that Pat Yasinskas decided to blog about it yesterday. I hadn't seen anyone else post about it. But here it is...
Panthers Trim Roster to 53
The final roster cutdown is now official. And there's a few interesting developments on it, including putting DTs Corvey Irvin on injured reserve and cutting Marlon Favorite. Jeremy Leman also failed to make the roster. The official list follows...after the cut...
Panthers Might Be Pursuing DT Alfonso Boone
Jason La Canfora of the NFL Network says that a league source has indicated the Panthers have been in contact with DT Alfonso Boone. He was with the Chicago Bears from 2000 thru 2006, then spent 2 years with the Kansas City Chiefs. He was released on Tuesday.
Alfonso is 33 years old, 6'3", and 305 lbs. with 9 years of experience in the NFL. In 113 games, he has posted 150 tackles, 12.5 sacks, and 13 passes defensed.
According to some, Boone was ill-suited for the Chiefs new 3-4 scheme and became expendable.
Nate Salley Placed on IR
The Carolina Panthers made their last roster cut before the deadline today by placing Nate Salley on injured reserve. That means he's gone for the season, but they get to keep him around for next year to compete again for a shot at making the roster. Salley tweaked his knee and he sat out multiple practices recently. I suspected he'd be a roster cut even if healthy, but this gets us to 75 players before the Pittsburgh game without having to send anyone home who's still hale and hearty.
Aftermath: Projected Roster After First Round Cuts
I started to post this as a response to an earlier fanpost discussing the projected roster and depth chart for the Panthers. But then, it got so lengthy (surprise!) that I figured I might as well make it a separate post, especially now that the first round of cuts have come through (though we should see one more later today).
I'm not 100% sold on some of the personnel choices I've indicated in my projected roster. Some of these guys could still land on the practice squad instead of the 53-man lineup. Also, needs on special teams could dictate a change here or there. And, once we bring in a veteran DT, they'll have to release somebody. For now, though, I think most of these position battles are over. Barring injury, I suspect the list will stay mostly intact.
So, without further ado...I give you a proposed 53-man roster...after the cut:
Pat Yasinskas on the Panthers-Ravens Game
Pat Yasinskas of ESPN blogs about the Panthers-Ravens game and the new "hole" in the Panthers defense as a result of the secondary's poor play.
Beason Calls Out Panthers Defense
There's an article published on NFL.com citing some comments from Jon Beason about the lack of tackling in the Panthers loss to the Ravens. Some commentary is also provided by Chris Harris and John Fox.
Roster Trim Down #1 - Who Do You Cut?
The first roster trim down from 80 players to 75 has to occur by this Tuesday (9/1). At this point, I think we've all probably picked out a guy here or there that we think the Panthers will cut. Or maybe there's someone who's managed to catch our eye that we're hoping sticks. Regardless, this first round of cuts usually focuses on releasing players the coaching staff expects to not only eliminate from their final roster, but more specifically, guys they no longer need to evaluate any further and which they believe will no longer help them prepare the rest of the team to get ready for the season.
In other words, there are some players the coaches expect NOT to make the final roster, but they choose to keep them around because they need the extra bodies in training camp to help run the second and third units while practicing. They also keep guys they want to further evaluate for possible inclusion on the practice squad. And finally, coaches sometimes keep a few guys around they know won't make the team, but still give them this extra preseason game and training camp experience to further showcase their talents for scouts from other teams in the event they can still pursue their NFL careers elsewhere.
So, given all that, what 5 players do you expect the Panthers to jettison before Tuesday? Here's my take, after the cut:
Inside the Numbers: Panthers vs. Ravens
I thought I'd try and gather some of my thoughts around the numbers and stats coming out of our third preseason game vs. the Ravens. Since we played "most" of our starters...and for "most" of the game...normally, I'd say the results of Game 3 should be more indicative of how we can expect the team to play throughout the upcoming season. But, we had some key guys sit this one out. On offense, both Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart never saw the field. And, on defense, we were missing Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, Charles Godfrey...and of course, Ma'ake Kemoeatu. That latter personnel grouping was pretty important, as defensively, we just didn't have it together. But more on that once we go...inside the numbers...
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Steve Smith Injured in Practice
NFL.com is reporting Steve Smith suffered an injury to his arm in practice today.
Ranking the NFC South Position-by-Position
While idly searching for new web content on the Panthers, I came across a series of position-by-position rankings posted by Pat Yasinskas over on ESPN.com. There's some interesting plaudits thrown our way...
The Panthers placed #2 (Julius Peppers), #8 (Charles Johnson), and #9 (). It's a little surprising to see Charles Johnson get on the list that high given his limited playing time. I would have thought Kemo would place a little higher.
The Panthers placed #1 (Jordan Gross), #7 (Jeff Otah), and #10 (Travelle Wharton). Personally, I feel like Otah ought to be higher on the list, despite only a single season rookie performance to date.
How Will Special Teams Rule Changes Affect Carolina?
One of the major rules changes that occurred this off-season at the league owners meeting concerns the removal of the "wedge" on special teams. This article at NFL.com talks about the significance of the move:
I'm not certain how often the Panthers have chosen to implement the wedge in their return game. I don't recall seeing it in use all that often...or as often as other teams. But the overall consideration that faces most special teams coaches now is to ensure they've got the most athletic players on the field who can play "match return" coverage...both on returns and coverage units.
Given that, it makes me wonder how that might change the Panthers coaching staff decisions around which players to keep on the roster for special teams. If we want the most athletic "burners" possible to keep up and take advantage of the match coverage, that might mean dropping some of our traditional special team aces in favor of guys who can run better. Generally, that might mean some of these rookies could stick and displace a special teams veteran we typically kept when "wedge" returns were still allowed.
Does anyone think this will affect the Panthers...either in our return game strategy or in determining what players we choose to keep on the roster? Why or why not?
--Neil
How Will the Panthers Run Game Fare Next Season?
As everyone knows, last year the Panthers played a pretty easy schedule and this year we have the second-most difficult schedule in the league (right behind Miami) in terms of opposing team's records. On top of that, as most students of the game know, the running game often dictates the success (and hence, the final record) of a team more often than not. So last year, the Panthers had one of the best seasons ever running the ball...and we wound up 12-4. Many of the teams we ran against had the worst defensive rankings against the run...and so many of them wound up with the worst win-loss records in the league.
So, with that as a backdrop, I thought it might be interesting to do some analysis of what we're facing this season in terms of the increased competition we might face from opposing run defenses and what that might mean for our chances of success in posting another winning season. For the stat-lovers, here's the breakdown from last season for comparison. We played the following teams ranked in order of their run defense last year. I've also indicated how DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart each fared against those teams:
1st - Minnesota Vikings - (DW = 27 yds, JS = 53 yds)
5th - Chicago - (DW = 31 yds, JS = 77 yds)
9th - New York Giants - (DW = 108 yds, JS = 29 yds)
11th - San Diego Chargers - (DW = 86 yds, JS = 53 yds)
16th - Arizona Cardinals - (DW = 108 yds, JS = 10 yds)
17th - New Orleans Saints - (First Game: DW = 66 yds, JS = 68 yds; Second Game: DW = 178 yds, JS = 56 yds)
19th - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - (First Game: DW = 27 yds, JS = 12 yds; Second Game: DW = 186 yds, JS = 115 yds)
25th - Atlanta Falcons - (First Game: DW = 54 yds, JS = 55 yds; Second Game: DW = 101 yds, JS = 15 yds)
26th - Green Bay Packers - (DW = 72 yds, JS = 56 yds)
27th - Denver Broncos - (DW = 88 yds, JS = 52 yds)
30th - Kansas City Chiefs - (DW = 123 yds, JS = 72 yds)
31st - Oakland Raiders - (DW = 140 yds, JS = 21 yds)
32nd - Detroit Lions - (DW = 120 yds, JS = 130 yds)
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