So I finally joined the rest of the baseball fan community and got around to seeing Moneyball last weekend. This is not a review of that movie. But the movie inspired the post because the movie is about the 2002 baseball season where Oakland loses in the ALDS. Of course the Angels fared better than Oakland in the playoffs that year, but in the movie they aren't mentioned.

The movie focuses on Billy Beane acquiring cheap undesirables from other teams that happen to have a high On Base Percentage or other solid statistically measured performance metrics. They acquire a number of players to fill the void left by high priced free agents. Billy Beane had a plan, but down in Anaheim the Angels were ironically doing the exact same thing. Whether or not Bill Stoneman was aware he was doing this at the time is uncertain, but that's exactly what he ended up doing with the 2002 Angels team. Consider the players below:

1. David Eckstein.....   .363 OBP, 5.5 WAR, $280,000 Salary
2. Scott Spezio.........   .371 OBP, 3.0 WAR, $2,275,000 Salary
3. Brad Fullmer.....       .357 OBP, 3.0 WAR, $4,000,000 Salary
4. Adam Kennedy.....   .345 OBP, 4.8 WAR, $375,000 Salary

Continue reading this post »

   So after this tease of a season one wonders how we're going to improve in 2012.  From where I'm sitting
this roster is a fricking mess.  It's not without some very good players, but the players who aren't performing are going to be very difficult to improve upon without a major trade or simply eating salaries.  I see both of those options as highly unlikely.

     As far as the good of it, we have some nice stable pieces both in the lineup and the rotation, followed by some question marks, and then the problem pieces of the roster. 

Continue reading this post »

Since the counting stats are now finally official I thought I'd do a nice breakdown of our lineup's season of FAIL.  The comparison does a nice job of pointing out where we truly sucked and also provides some hope for next season.

Least FAIL

Really these three guys are the only shining beacons of hope that isn't on the pitching staff.  Hunter gets some fail points for his stupid baserunning and declining defense but I'll cut the guy some slack since he always makes for an amusing/offensive after the game quote.

Peter Bourjos

2010 WAR 1.5 (Projected 4.6)

That projection is bizarre since he got most of those with his glove.  The assists will go down but maybe his bat will improve?  Either way Bourjos looks a lot better on paper than at the plate and oddly that's what really matters here.

Torii Hunter

2009 WAR 3.8
2010 WAR 3.4

Mike Napoli

2009 WAR 2.7
2010 WAR 2.7

Napoli does his yearly routine of 2.X WAR once again.  This time at the 1B position.  He can't match Morales' 4.5 of last season.  But he's still a solid player in the slot.  Too bad that means more playing time for Mathis.

FAIL

Bobby Abreu

2009 WAR 2.8
2010 WAR 2.1

A bigger paycheck and worse production.   His defense also fell off.   I still think Abreu wasn't a complete travesty this season but if he declines again the Angels are in trouble.

Hideki Matsui

2009 WAR 2.7
2010 WAR 1.7

Even with a down year  Matsui was an upgrade of Guerrero last year with almost a full Win over Vlad's 0.8 in 2009.  Unfortunately Vlad turned in a much better season this time around with a WAR of 2.6 which sours Matsui's mediocre performance even further.

Howie Kendrick

2009 WAR 2.3
2010 WAR 1.6

Howie was attempting to be a major fail this season but managed to step it up a bit in the second half.  He is only moderately fail.

Major FAIL


Juan Rivera

2009 WAR 3.3
2010 WAR 0.6

Rivera finally decided to not earn his paycheck.  Turning in a disasterous .720 OPS for a Left fielder who can't play defense.

Erick Aybar

2009 WAR 3.4
2010 WAR 0.7

Not to be outdone by Juan Rivera, Aybar's batting average slipped over 60 points and his WAR dropped almost a full 3 wins.

Jeff Mathis

2009 WAR 0.1
2010 WAR -0.6

Mathis managed to suck even worse than last year.  Impressive.  More playing time but he still turned in a negative result.  He would be the worst FAIL on this team if it wasn't for...
 
Brandon Wood

2010 WAR -1.8

Wood was replaced halfway through the season with "anyone else" but then officially Callaspo after the trade who turned in a 1.4 WAR performance (alhtough some of that is with KC).

That's a considerable drop from Chone Figgins' 6.1 WAR last season. 

Fortunately we didn't resign Figgins since he would have been the biggest FAIL on this team had we kept him, even trumping Wood.  His 0.5 WAR for Seattle was a disaster.  Better than Wood, but with much higher expectations and price tag.  I'd prefer anyone but Figgins. 


No Decision

Hank Conger 2010 WAR 0.0

Conger didn't get enough playing time to really judge. But still manages to be an upgrade over Mathis.  Congrats Hank! You may indeed be our starting catcher next season!

It's pretty clear where the Angels need to improve on offense and starting with the low hanging fruit is a good place to do it.   Easy moves are replacing Mathis with Conger and Wood with anyone else.  Another move might be moving Rivera onto another roster.    Aybar is the major wildcard since there really isn't a viable replacement anywhere in the system.   He can't turn in another season like this albatross.  Something needs to change.

For the lesser FAILS Matsui is not re-signed and replaced with Napoli and Morales puts up another 4+ WAR at first base.  The Angels can improve even by signing nobody if they simply just play the right people.

I've put together the Angels prospects for 2011.    I realize it's early but we're also 10 games out of first place and just got swept by one of the worst teams in baseball.  It think looking ahead is both justified, constructive, and probably beneficial for our sanity.

I think the below are the secure positions for 2011 that I don't anticipate will change barring a major blockbuster trade.

Secure Positions:

First Base:  Kendry Morales
Second Base:  Howie Kendrick
Shortstop:  Erick Aybar
Right Field:  Torii Hunter

I think these 4 players are secure for 2011.  Aybar and Kendrick could be a bit better at the plate, but their quality middle infield defense is worth the weaker bats.   Hunter and Morales are both good hitters.  

Starter #1:  Dan Haren
Starter #2:  Jered Weaver
Starter #3:  Ervin Santana
Starter #4:  Joel Pineiro

This front 4 is probably the best 4 man rotation in baseball.  I don't think anyone can argue with that and I don't think any Angel fans should be complaining.

Bullpen #1:  Fernando Rodney
Bullpen #2:  Kevin Jepsen
Bullpen #3:  Jason Bulger
Bullpen #4:  Michael Kohn

I'm under the impression Fuentes isn't coming back next despite the fact he's the best guy in the bullpen right now.  This is less a testament that Fuentes is good and more an illustration about how poor the bullpen is.   I'm of the opinion Shields is also gone after this season leaving us with the above 4.  If Bulger, Jepsen and Kohn can get it together that's a pretty decent bridge to Rodney, who is hardly lights out but could be a serviceable closer.   The Angels could go buy an expensive closer for next year and then make Rodney setup again, use Thompson or Rodriguez and call it a day, or they could get/promote another specialist or two and dump the likes of Rodriguez or Thompson from the roster.   

Aside from the above we have the uncertain positions.

Uncertain Positions:

Center Field:  Peter Bourjos

This is uncertain because we don't know what Bourjos will do at the MLB level.   If he manages to stay above the Mendoza line and provides excellent defense he's going to be in Center Field next year.  If he fails the Angels will be forced to go outside the organization.

LF and DH:  Bobby Abreu / Juan Rivera / Mike Napoli

Both Abreu or Rivera are mediocre at the plate.   The Angels don't have room for both of them unless they decide Mike Napoli is the everyday catcher or move him in a trade.   Assuming Scioscia keeps Napoli as a DH / Backup Catcher one of the left fielders needs to go.   Another option is to dump both of them or one of them and Napoli and then put the remainder at DH and go sign another OF.   Since all three are defensive liabilities these players must hit well to be considered valuable.  Napoli is decent but the other two are sub .800 OPS which is unacceptable for players playing the corner outfield slot and doing it poorly.   This needs to improve.   A trade needs to happen and if it doesn't yield a starting OF then a FA signing needs to as well.

Here are the available OF next year (asterisk denotes team option for 2011):

Outfielders
Alfredo Amezaga LAD
Frank Catalanotto NYM
Carl Crawford TB
Coco Crisp OAK *
Michael Cuddyer MIN *
David DeJesus KC *
Jody Gerut MIL
Jose Guillen KC
Willie Harris WAS
Brad Hawpe COL *
Austin Kearns CLE
Jason Kubel MIN *
Magglio Ordonez DET *
Marcus Thames NYY
Jayson Werth PHI

If Rivera and Napoli are both moved I could see Abreu going to DH leaving the OF open for one of the more athletic guys above.

C:  Mike Napoli / Jeff Mathis / Bobby Wilson / Hank Conger / Ryan Budde

Spring training will probably give us more information about Conger's readiness.  He's not known as a defensive whiz though which means there may need to be some additional roster changes here.     We have an all hit no D "catcher" in Napoli,  a prospect with the same traits and then two catchers who can't hit.   I'd probably like to see Mathis traded for a bag of balls and then Conger promoted as a primary catcher with Wilson and then Napoli DHing or catching in a pinch.   I don't see the Angels going outside the organization for this position since there is so much depth here.   The question is:  Which one is getting moved?

3b:  Alberto Callaspo / Macier Izturis / Brandon Wood

Pencil in Callaspo as the starting 3b for 2011.  However if the Angels can swing a deal involving Izturis/Wood for just about anything the Angels could be in a position to upgrade at 3b via trade or FA and make Callaspo the roving utility infielder instead. 

Here are the available 3b:

Third Basemen
Garrett Atkins BAL *
Jorge Cantu FLA
Eric Chavez OAK *
Pedro Feliz HOU
Bill Hall BOS *
Brandon Inge DET
Mike Lowell BOS
Melvin Mora COL
Nick Punto MIN *
Ty Wigginton BAL

Starter #5:  Matt Palmer, Trevor Bell, Scott Kazmir

Aside from a FA signing these are your candidates for the back of the rotation.  I don't really see a problem here since having a really deep and pricey rotation hasn't helped the Angels  in the past, but history shows us that the FO never thinks we have enough pitching so it wouldn't shock me at all if we grabbed another one.    Here is the FA list:

Starting Pitchers
Bronson Arroyo CIN *
Jeremy Bonderman DET
David Bush MIL
Daniel Cabrera LAA
Jorge De La Rosa COL
Jeff Francis COL *
Jon Garland SD *
Aaron Harang CIN *
Tim Hudson ATL
Cliff Lee TEX
Ted Lilly LAD
Braden Looper MIL
Noah Lowry SF
Kevin Millwood BAL
Jamie Moyer PHI
Vicente Padilla LAD
Nate Robertson FLA
Ian Snell SEA *
Jeff Suppan STL
Javier Vazquez NYY
Brandon Webb ARI
Jake Westbrook STL
Dontrelle Willis SF
Chris Young SD *


Bullpen #5 and #6:  Francisco Rodriguez / Rich Thompson / ??????

This is the area that needs some serious work but signing expensive BP arms hasn't had a great track record historically.   There will be at minimum one addition to the pen.  Hopefully multiple for the sake of our sanity.  Franciso Rodriguez and Rich Thompson are also options here but I would hope the Angels have the good sense to upgrade.

Relief Pitchers
Jeremy Affeldt SF
Grant Balfour TB
Jesse Crain MIN
Scott Downs TOR
Chad Durbin PHI
Kyle Farnsworth KC *
Pedro Feliciano NYM
Jason Frasor TOR
Brian Fuentes LAA *
Chad Gaudin NYY
Matt Guerrier MIN
Aaron Heilman ARZ
Mike Lincoln CIN
Brian Moehler HOU
J.J. Putz CWS
Chad Qualls ARZ
Jon Rauch MIN
Arthur Rhodes CIN
David Riske MIL *
Mariano Rivera NYY
J.C. Romero PHI *
Bobby Seay DET
Scott Shields LAA
Brian Shouse BOS
Matt Thornton CWS *
Kerry Wood NYY *

From a budget perspective the Angels will likely be increasing payroll unless they can somehow jettison larger contracts like Abreu or Kazmir.   They can probably afford a single big signing but nothing beyond that.   I can see them landing another impact starter, major bullpen help or an impact outfielder via FA but not all three.   If they want help in multiple areas they are going to have to get creative with trades.    The notable weaknesses are the bullpen, outfield defense (ranked 25th UZR), and on base percentage (also ranked 25th).   They all need to be addressed for 2011 or we're just going to repeat fighting for 3rd place in the AL West.

I think at this point the Ninja is probably done making moves barring some crazy trade.  We've managed to address all the offseason goals by trading GMJ, getting a starter, a reliever, and at least one bat to replace any departing players.

I've broken down the moves made below and how the roster has changed position by position from last season.

• Designated Hitter: Hideki Matsui (6.5 million) vs. Vladimir Guerrero (6.5 million)
• Starting Pitcher: John Lackey (83 Million) vs. Joel Pineiro (16 Million)
• Relief Pitcher: Darren Oliver (3.5-6.5 Million) vs. Fernando Rodney and Brian Stokes (32.5 Million)
• Third Base: Chone Figgins (45 Million) vs. Brandon Wood (1-3 Million)
• Right Field: Bobby Abreu (5 Million) vs. Bobby Abreu (18 Million)

Continue reading this post »

I spoke briefly today to a sports agent who works in my building.     We were in the elevator and he growled at my Angels hat.

    “Don’t like the Angels?” I said.

    “Not when I’m trying to give them a pitcher!” He said.

I believe this guy works for Wasserman Media Group.  So I did a little digging and found a FA list of players that are represented by this Agency:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/wasserman-media-group-clients.html

I found the name "Joel Piniero" to be interesting.   Also Vicente Padilla and Guillermo Mota are notable here.

I wonder who he was talking about?

Edit:  Wasserman Media Group is in my office building.  This guy got off on the Agency's floor.  That's why I made these assumptions about who he was and who he worked for.

Another Edit:   It's confirmed he's the agent or on the team of agents representing Piniero.  They are in negotiations and it's currently down to the Angels or Mets.

If the season started today here are what each teams rotation would look like along with typical WAR statistics for each pitcher.

For those who don't know.  WAR is Wins above Replacement player, meaning that player can net (or cost you) X wins over some random guy from the minor leagues (please see all of our 5th starters last year).

Note some of these stats are from last year, some are projected for 2010, and some are "average" for the pitcher over their career.  I didn't have all the stats consistent so I just used a compilation of them.  You get the idea:

Boston Red Sox:

John Lester:  5.6
Josh Beckett:  4.9
John Lackey:   4.0
Clay Buchholz:  2.5
Dice-K :  2.5

Total:   19.5

Note Buchholz wasn't a 2.5 pitcher last year, so that stat is projected.  Dice-K was a disaster (0.5) last year but was a 3+ pitcher the 2 years before so the 2.5 is an average assuming he comes back and doesn't suck.

Seattle Mariners:

Felix Hernandez:  6.9
Cliff Lee:   6.2
Ryan Rowland-Smith:   2.6
Ian Snell:  1.8
Brandon Morrow:  1.6

Total: 19.1

The Mariners have 2 aces and 3 up and coming pitchers.   The last 3 pitchers are all projected to do better that last year (Snell and Morrow didn't do anything in 2009)   That still gives them a pretty good chance to win and a pretty nice rotation, especially in a playoff series if they can get there.

New York Yankees:

C.C Sabathia:  6
Andy Pettitte:  3
A.J. Burnett:  3
Joba Chamberlin:  1.5
Chad Guadin:  0.1

Total:   13.5

Note the WS champs didn't have a great pitching staff last year and still won it all.  Which leads us into our rotation:

Angels:

Scott Kazmir:   2.8
Joe Saunders:    2.0
Ervin Santana:   2.6
Jared Weaver:  3.25
Minor Leaguer:  0

Total:  10.65

Saunders and Santana are averaged here.   Santana has been a 5+ win pitcher in the past but is inconsistent and that lowers his numbers.   Saunders was almost a 3 win pitcher in 2008 but lousy in the first half of last year and good in the second half.   Kazmir is a projection but he has historically been a 3-4 win pitcher.  Weaver is the only one with solid 3+ wins every year.

Based on these stats it doesn't look good in terms of our rotation.  That said we're basically looking at the Angels numbers as if everyone gets hurt again.  If they don't we might be able to add another 3-4 wins with the current rotation and that's not even counting a 5th starter.    That puts us in Yankee territory as far as the quality of our rotation.   Not great but not bad either.

For comparison purposes:

Derek Lowe:   3.9
Roy Halladay:  6.7
Josh Johnson:  5.2

The Angels have some work to do if they want to statistically compete with these other teams in the rotation department.  Of course Pitching is only half the game, hitting is also relevant, and the Angels did that well last year.  This comparison also doesn't reflect bullpens.   So not having as good a rotation as these other teams doesn't mean the Angels can't compete, it just means they'll have to do it in other ways.

     Chone is as good as gone.  So who plays third base next year?

     Obviously Brandon Wood is the #1 candidate at this point and it is his job to lose.  But can we trust him implicitly with a .559 OPS at the major league level? 

      Yeah Izturis is a suitable backup plan.   Sometimes.   But he also needs to backup the middle infielders as well.  With the departure of Robb Quinlan we're going to need a backup corner man.   History suggests this role should be given a roster slot.  

      If I'm Tony Reagins I go look for a cheap insurance policy on the Free Agent market.  No major signings here.  Just someone for a one year deal to fill a utility role in case Brandon Wood is a total disaster.  If Wood is good enough to play everyday we have a utility backup for one year and we cut them lose after 2010.  If Wood fails miserably we use the signing for the year and then seek a multi-year replacement for 2011 and beyond.

      Here are the free agent third basemen still available:

Rich Aurilia (38)
Brian Barden (29)
Adrian Beltre (31) - Type B, offered arb
Aaron Boone (37)
Craig Counsell (39)
Joe Crede (32)
Bobby Crosby (30)
Mark DeRosa (35) - Type B, offered arb
Pedro Feliz (35)
Nomar Garciaparra (36)
Troy Glaus (33) - Type B, not offered arb
Adam Kennedy (34)
Mark Loretta (38)
Melvin Mora (38) - Type B, not offered arb
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Robb Quinlan (33)
Miguel Tejada (36) - Type A, not offered arb
Juan Uribe (31)

Obviously an Adrian Beltre isn't appropriate here since he's seeking a multi year deal and would require a draft pick.   But what about some of the other players on this list?  Would a Mark Loretta or Rich Aurilia or an Aaron Boone be appropriate at the right price? 

What should the Angels do with 40 million dollars leaving the payroll?

Guerrero:  15,000,000
Lackey: 10,000,000
Escobar: 10,000,000
Figgins:  5,776,000
Abreu: 5,000,000
Oliver:  3,665,000
Quinlan:  1,100,000

Here is a list of Potential FA for 2010:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/05/2010-free-agents.html

In terms of notable positions I think OF, SP and RP are the highest priorities.

Lackey, Abreu and Oliver help fill positional needs.  I'd like to see either Holliday or Bay as well and another reliever Billy Wagner?

Looks like the payroll is going to have to increase if improving the team from this year is the goal.

Anyone like anybody else on the list?

   The ignorance by some of these sportswriters is truly fascinating.  Since apparently admitting "I'm not sure" on camera doesn't bode well for these guys careers, they instead decide to just speak nonsense and hope something sticks.

    The argument is who will win the ALDS.  Here is the link:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/video/player/mlb/Y_Sports_MLB/15966665;_ylt=ArzJAtmGYBWkj4Ep7.FETwkRvLYF

    It's Jeff Passan and Jose Mota on their respective sides.  We know Mota is an Angels homer.  Here are some rich comments by Passan.

    "Not only are the (Sox) in the Angels' head, they are a better team than the Angels."

     Never mind the fact the Angels won the season series and had a better overall record.

     "They have better high end starting pitching."

      Lackey and Weaver are maybe slightly below Beckett and Lester.  But Kazmir blows away Buchholz (who?).

      "I will take Lester, Beckett and Buckholz over anything the Angels can throw at me any day"

      We have All-Star starters 4th in the rotation and coming out of the bullpen.  Really?

      "The (Sox) won 95 games in the best division in baseball."

      Most of that division seemed to have a hard time against the West.  The Orioles and Jays were also auto-wins.  Is the east really the best?  I don't think so.

      "I don't understand what the Angels have that could be better than the Red Sox at this point."

       Clearly this guy doesn't actually watch the Angels.

       I really hope we prove these idiots wrong this year.

Because getting 4th place in AL OF voting behind Josh Hamilton and his .746 OPS would be a disgrace.  Torii deserves to start.

Josh Hamilton is on the DL and in a rehab assignment.  Torii probably broke a rib running into a wall and yet still has an OPS of .961 and is on pace to go 20/20 with 100 RBI.

Go Vote for Torii.    Up to 25 Times.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/all_star/y2009/ballot_reg.html