Nassau

Nassau Cowboy

  • joined Feb 04, 2011
  • last login Apr 18, 2013
  • posts 19
  • comments 287

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  • NFL Dallas Cowboys
User Blog

All I Do is Win

An interesting read from Grantland resident nerd Bill Barnwell on the value of a winner.

JimmyK Hating on Dez Bryant?

Or just calling it as he sees it? Frankly, I'd have to agree with him. Looks to me like Dez quitting on his 2nd quarter route led to Romo's interception. Who do you blame?

NFL Statistics of the Future

I have been heavy on the Barnwell Kool-Aid recently, I admit, but it's raspberry and I just love the raspberry. The article details not just where we are, but where we likely are headed, in terms of the information available to teams privately and (one can hope) to the spectating public as well. If you've ever found yourself asking, "What if we could just know..." then this is just the article for you.

An Overview of Football Statistics

Great post from Grantland's Bill Barnwell on football metrics. Major topics of discussion include an overview of some basic football metrics, a comparison with analytics in baseball, and the limits of using such methods. I hate to say, looking at a few of these, the Eagles might be primed for a much better season than 8-8 this year.

Dallas' 3rd WR May Be On Another Team

It shouldn't surprise us if Dallas poaches a WR after final cuts to shore up the 3rd WR job. Who are a few quality options? I mined this from the above post: "■Another guy that has had a strong camp but likely won’t make the team is Mardy Gilyard. He caught a bomb from Trent Edwards, and has been a force on deep throws consistently throughout camp. He also drew a pas interference on a deep ball and made a nice catch on a quick slant. He’s going to land somewhere in the NFL, and if he finds the right situation, he might be a decent contributor this season." Anyone else on whom we should keep an eye?

Romo Under Pressure

Worth seeing. From Peter King's MMQB, stat is from Football Outsiders Almanac. "b. Tony Romo last year averaged 8.6 yards per play without pass pressure, but only 2.3 yards per play with pass pressure, the biggest gap of any regular starting quarterback except Rex Grossman."

DeMarco Murray Chat on ESPN

Just a link for those who hadn't seen it, plus the high comedy of the following question: Bob (Canada) : If Tony Romo and the whole offensive team stays healthy then this team can be scary right. The defense is already terrific Face-palm.

Dangers of the Good ol' Eyeball Test

Bill Barnwell at Grantland talks about the All-22 film that will be made widely available for the public for every game this season. An interesting nugget: "I know of one NFL team that wanted to grade every offensive lineman in football before free agency by having its personnel break down every play and grade the offensive linemen on their performance. What they found, though, was that even trained football eyes are unable to reliably break down what each lineman was supposed to do on every single play without guessing far too frequently, as they would have to do on the play above. They abandoned the project." Qualified professionals, with All-22 tape, couldn't adequately grade free agents based on their tape. I think some of the tape reviews done around here and elsewhere are very useful to fans, especially recaps of the offensive plays being run. But this quote illustrates the inherent difficulty of watching tape and the limits to what it provides.

4 Saints Suspended

4 Saints Suspended, including Vilma for the whole season. Former Cowboy Fujita (now with Browns) for 4 games.

Navigating The Busts - Getting On Base

It's that time again, where I post a Bill Barnwell article for discussion for the statistically inclined. The premise of this article, one I tend to agree with, is that the most important thing in building a football team is avoiding busts. If you hit a double (instead of a HR) in the first round, your team will suffer less than if you strike out. In other words, in the early rounds, it's more important to get on base than to strike out. I love mixing my sports metaphors. In any case, as far as it pertain to the Cowboys' early round choices, I wanted to note a few things: - OL, LB, and DB are all among the top half of Barnwell's 'safest positions' in the first two rounds of the draft. - OL in Rd. 2 produce relatively well compared to their Rd. 1 counterparts, but fall off a cliff in Rd. 3. DBs follow a similar pattern. -DL and LB have steeper declines after Rd 1, but fairly flat curves from Rd's 2 to 4. In other words, if you miss on one in Rd 1, it might be a better value to wait until about Rd 4 instead of panicking in Rd 2. Read the article and draw some of your own conclusions for how this could be used to draw up an optimal draft strategy for Dallas this weekend.

Sturm Breaks Down Coples Tape - Love/Hate?

Is he the real deal? Some other measurables: 6'6" 284lbs. 4.78 40yd dash 25 reps 31" vert 10'9" broad 4.0 shuttle 7.57 3-cone Love or Hate?

Broaddus vs. Pro Football Focus

Given some of the debate around PFF's grading, I thought this was a thought-provoking take on Broaddus' (ignorant?) criticism of them. Have at it.

NFL Penalties to Cost Cowboys Robinson?

Apparently it has become a subconscious goal of mine to become King of the FanShots. Archie can keep his draft guru status, I just want my own little island here on the sidebar. Also, I swear I'm not Bill Barnwell's agent, or receiving any compensation from him or said agent. Nor is he a family member or close friend. In fact I haven't even seen him since the restraining order, so there. Barnwell speculates (as have we all) that the $10mm hit won't be too prohibitive because we can cut a few contracts (Hello, Newman) and spread it out over two years. He offers this paragraph, though: "Dallas will also likely miss out on re-signing wideout Laurent Robinson, who impressed as a starting wideout during Miles Austin's absence this past season. With the team committed to Austin and Dez Bryant as their starting wideouts, the Cowboys won't be able to match the starter money Robinson can get elsewhere. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they built their team and now they're mostly stuck with it." Ouch.

The Trouble in Projecting QB Performance

It's hard enough to predict how a veteran QB will perform year-to-year, making prospect projections incredibly difficult. One fact that pops out is that interception percentage has less than 1% explanatory power season-to-season.

Mario Williams Primer

I post less because of Williams, and more because of DeMarcus Ware. An interesting chart pegs the decline of pass rushers coming at age 32. DWare will be 30 on July 31st. Nothing new, obviously, but just a few numbers for support.

The Art of the Fumble

Just because we are a bit overdue for a good FiTaT rant.

FanPost

Law of Diminishing Returns - a Blueprint for the Offseason

A fanpost from bevomav 2 days ago suggests a fascinating solution for the Cowboys in this offseason: instead of worrying about the defense, fix the offense. The core of his argument is as follows:...

Tony Romo fails to qualify for U.S. Open

Just a little Cowboys news on a slow Monday.

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