SB Nation User Blog: Nate

The Canadian Pitcher

Nate — Sat, 10 May 2008 01:41:29 -0000

We're going to see the return of a familiar name to the mound this Sunday. It's a name everyone on this site is exceedingly familiar with. I am writing this post to humbly urge everyone not to use that name!

In the world of theater, Shakespeare's play MacBeth is known by the euphemism "The Scottish play". A widespread superstition in the business is that the play is cursed. The mythical origins of this curse are varied. One legend says that in the original production, prop daggers were swapped for real daggers and an actor was killed. Others say the curse originated with the Three Witches, characters in the play. This story claims that the spells the characters cast were real spells taken from a witch's coven, and that coven, angered by the theft, put a curse on the play.

Of course, others have more prosaic explanations, pointing out that the play contains a large amount of fight scenes, providing more opportunity for mishap than your average play. Still, the theory persists that the play is cursed, to the point that even saying the name of the play can bring about bad luck on a set, even if the play being put on is something different entirely. Even when it is this very play that is being produced, the cast will call it "the Scottish play", and refer to the main characters as "Mr. and Mrs. M."

It occurs to me that we too have someone prone to seemingly bizarre mishap every time he steps onto his stage. He'll be starting against Texas this Sunday. I probably can't convince the announcers or Texas' PA crew or anyone else not to say the name of the Canadian pitcher, but I think all of Athletics Nation should make an effort to try to do so.

Can we agree that he is the Canadian pitcher, and try our best to break this curse?

The 25-man roster is a misnomer.

Nate — Thu, 24 May 2007 04:01:51 -0000

So, out of morbid curiosity, I thought we'd let's take a quick look at a list of everyone who has been on the A's 25-man roster so far this season:

Starting pitchers: Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin, Joe Kennedy, Dallas Braden, Colby Lewis
Relief pitchers: Huston Street, Justin Duchscherer, Kiko Calero, Alan Embree, Jay Witasick, Jay Marshall, Lenny DiNardo, Connor Robertson, Ron Flores
Catchers: Jason Kendall, Adam Melhuse
Infielders: Dan Johnson, Todd Walker, Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez, Marco Scutaro
Outfielders: Milton Bradley, Nick Swisher, Shannon Stewart, Bobby Kielty, Travis Buck, Danny Putnam, Ryan Langerhans, Chris Snelling, Hiram Bocachica, Donnie Murphy
Designated Hitters: Mike Piazza, Jack Cust

So, 36 so far, with two more names coming onto the list soon in Kotsay and Loaiza.

Is there some sort of record for number of player's on a team's 25-man roster before a certain date?

A's Rookie Card Day

Nate — Tue, 15 May 2007 14:32:04 -0000

Kotsay: So once my back is better, then they're going to fix my left arm, my right leg, both knees and elbows, and I should be back in the lineup in no time.
Bradley: That's great, Mark...
Piazza: Okay folks, gather round. It's May 15th and that's rookie card day.
Swisher: What?
Piazza: Rookie card day. It's when you have to show everyone your rookie card.
Swisher: ...you're serious?
Piazza: Oh yeah, all the veterans know about it. Right guys?
Stewart: Definitely.
Loaiza: Si
Chavez: Yup.
Kotsay: Huh?
Bradley elbows Kotsay
Kotsay: Ow, I mean, yeah, totally. (Dude, you pushed my rehab back...)
Piazza: Ok, I'll start.

Piazza: That's me all the way back in 1992.
Swisher: We pretty much have to take your word on that.
Piazza: Hey, I was catching then. Catchers have their pictures taken with their gear on.
Kendall: Speak for yourself.

Piazza: Huh, they told me I had to wear the mask.
Kendall: To be fair I am much prettier than you.
Buck: Here's mine!

Kotsay: It's certainly...accurate.
Buck: Yeah, they took it last week.
Kotsay: I think the point of this is being missed.
Kendall: Let's see your card, Mark?
Kotsay: ...Fine.

peals of laughter
Bradley: What the hell is that supposed to be?
Kotsay: Argh. They were trying to be artsy or something.
Kendall: You're holding that bat like it's a giant penis.
Kotsay: Maybe you should take lessons Mr. .400 OPS, or is that what you've been-
Piazza: Knock it off! Jeez. Milt, show us your card.

Swisher: You looked ticked even then.
Buck: What team is that?
Bradley: The Expos. I was drafted by the Expos.
Buck: blank stare
Bradley: The Montreal Expos.
Buck: blank stare
Bradley: In Canada.
Buck: I don't...
Swisher: He doesn't believe in Canada.
Bradley: He what?
Swisher: He thinks we're hazing the rookies when we talk about Canada.
Buck: Oh come on, I take the ribbing in good humor, but that doesn't mean I'm gonna buy these stories about a country full of people who like hockey.
Bradley: Where does he think Rich came from?
Buck: Rich is a cyborg.
Bradley: ...
Buck: He breaks a lot.
Bradley: That's...
Swisher: Danny, let's see yours.
Haren: Mine is awesome.

Swisher: You look like a mafia enforcer in a uniform.
Kotsay: You look like you're eight feet tall.
Kendall: What did you have to give the cameraman to agree to take the shot like that?
Haren: ...just some tickets. And a bat signed by Mark McGwire.
Kendall: You had a bat signed by McGwire?
Haren: Well, technically it just had a signature that SAID Mark McGwire...
Loaiza: Esta mi:

Swisher: Holy crap. Were you drafted when you were 15?
Loaiza: Diez y cinco. Diez y ocho. Es como...
Kotsay: Ok save it for A's Amigos there, compadre.
Loaiza: Puto.
Kotsay: Alan, let's see yours?
Embree: That's ok.
Kotsay: C'mon, it's your turn.
Embree: I'd really rather n-
Kendall steals the card from Embree's locker
Embree: HEY!

Kendall: What the hell?
Kotsay: Um, what is...
Embree: I misunderstood.
Kotsay: Misunderstood?
Embree: They said we had a photo shoot. I was thinking GQ.
Kotsay: ...
Bradley: ...
Kendall: ...
Loaiza: Cabron
Bradley: Ok, let's see yours, Swish.
Swisher: I...musta left it in my other pants.
Bradley: Nuh-uh. Show.
Swisher: Awwww

Kendall: ...
Kotsay: ...
Loaiza: ...
Embree: ...
Haren: ...
Crosby: ...
Ellis: ...
Chavez: ...
Piazza: ...
Geren: ...
Beane: ...
Bradley: We meant your rookie card, fool.
Swisher: Ah screw you guys.

Todd Walker Designated For Assignment

Nate — Sat, 12 May 2007 21:26:00 -0000

From the AP via Yahoo.

Not too much to say about this one. Walker was an emergency signing made necessary by the injury to Dan Johnson. With Johnson's return, and the success had in the DH spot by Jack Cust, we really don't have a great deal of use for him. He'll refuse a minor league assignment. Barring some other Snelling or Cust out there that a team wants to give us for him, I imagine he'll be released in ten days.

Super Bowl XLI

Nate — Sun, 21 Jan 2007 23:30:44 -0000

As a native Chicagoan who hasn't switched his sports loyalties in any sport other than baseball, I'd just liked to say: WHOO! GO BEARS!

For non-Bears fans: You should probably avoid all ESPN programming for the next couple weeks, otherwise you will learn to hate the Super Bowl Shuffle.

While I'm not as big a fan of any sport as I am of baseball, it's kinda nice to have something to cheer for in the baseball dead-zone that is January.

Payroll Analysis & Roster Predictions For The 2007 A's.

Nate — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 02:32:35 -0000

While imagining what free agent we might try to sign or Devil Ray we might try to trade for is interesting enough, it's speculative in the extreme, and unlikely to be particularly accurate (who saw us going after Bradley 12 months ago?) So let's take a look at where things are likely to stand six months from now, always remaining aware of the caveat that I have little idea who Billy's going to see as undervalued out there.

First, these are the players we have under contract for 2007, and how much they'll make. This includes players that haven't yet reached arbitration eligibility. It occurs to me that I don't actually know what the 2007 minimum salary is. I'm gonna round them all to $350K. The minimum will likely be less than that, but given that some pre-arb players will be making slightly more than the minimum, it's probably close enough.

Jason Kendall: $8M (His salary's $13M, but this is the year we get $5M from Pittsburgh)
Mark Ellis: $3.5M
Bobby Crosby: $2.5M
Eric Chavez: $9.5M
Mark Kotsay: $8.03M
Esteban Loaiza: $7M
Rich Harden: $2M
Dan Haren: $2.2M
Dan Johnson: $350K
Nick Swisher: $350K
Antonio Perez: $350K
Joe Blanton: $350K
Huston Street: $350K
Chad Gaudin: $350K
Brad Halsey: $350K

There are others, such as Flores, but these are the ones I'm reasonably sure will be on the 25-man roster next year. That's 14 players at a cost of just over $45M. (It's 15, but given his performance last year and the likely return of the Crosby/Ellis combo up the middle, I don't see Perez as necessary, and assume he'll get sent down to Sacramento)

Next, the players who have reached arbitration. This list is going to include the player, last year's salary, what year of arbitration the player is in, (service time has a big effect on a player's salary in arbitration. It's why Joe Kennedy made $2.4M while Kiko Calero made $850K,) and my guess as to what the player will go for.

Milton Bradley: $3M. 3rd year. (Actually his 4th, but he's missed enough time to injury that his service time isn't enough for free agency) Had a good year, but missed time to injury. Playoff performance may add to his price. $4.75M.

Joe Kennedy: $2.4M. 3rd year. Like Bradley, had a good year, if a short one. Being a reliever will keep his price from going to high. $3.2M

D'Angelo Jimenez: $750K. (his starting salary with the Rangers. I imagine that Oakland paid him whatever the minimum was) 3rd year. I don't know what 62 PA with a .601 OPS and being the guy called in to play in the postseason because 3 other guys are hurt gets you in arbitration, but I don't think it's going to matter since I doubt the A's will offer it to him.

Bobby Kielty: $1.85M. 3rd year. In 2005 he was a 4th OF with a league-average OPS, and that got him a raise of $1M. In 2006 he was a 4th OF with a league-average OPS. Call it another mil. $2.85M

Adam Melhuse: $700K. 2nd year. Kendall's suspension and the A's clinching brought Melhuse 30 more at-bats than last year. I can't see how else he's going to justify a raise. $750K. And if it's any more than that, why not just bring in Jeremy Brown? It's not like this is a position we need to be spending more money on right now.

Kiko Calero: $850K. 2nd year. Had a very good 2006. Value will be limited by being a reliever. $1.5M

Justin Duchscherer: $344K. 1st year. Was in the top 10 relief pitchers in baseball. That plus 2005's selection to the All-Star team ought to lift him up to $1M, rather high for a relief pitcher in his first year of arbitration, but obviously worth it.

Hiram Bocachica: $327K. 1st year. It's taken him 7 seasons since his rookie debut to accrue three seasons of service time. There's a reason for that. $550K, and it wouldn't surprise me if he were let go or traded for someone else no one wants.

Kirk Saarloos: $354K. 1st year. Has a weird line of 7 wins, 7 losses and 2 saves for 2006. I want to digress just a bit here and point out something from Saarloos's numbers this year.

As a starter: 89.1 IP, 4.94 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 3.72 K/9, 15 HR
As a reliever: 32 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.21 K/9, 4 HR

Saarloos is a much better reliever than he is a starter. He's not truly that great of a relief pitcher, but there's value to be had in having a guy who, when one of your real pitchers goes down, can give you better-than-replacement-level innings, unlike such replacements as Windsor and Komine. This is not to say he shouldn't be on the team next year, but plans should definitely not have him in the 5-man rotation rather than as an emergency backup.

That said (and back to the point here), he did start, and that's going to drive up his price in arby-land. $1.2M

Marco Scutaro: $340K. 1st year. Has basically been an everyday player the last few years, albeit not by anyone's choice. He's definitely gotten more selective at the plate. That and his occasional gap power actually gave him a 97 OPS+ last year, de-emphasizing the 'light-hitting' portion of light-hitting middle infielder. $750K

If I'm right about who we're keeping (and close to right about what they'll make) that's 8 more guys and sixteen million more. If you're counting along, that's 22 spots filled and $61M spent. Last year, the opening day payroll was $63M vs $60M the year before. I'm thinking $67M is about right for this year. While less overall tickets were sold, Wolff has claimed that profits were up a notch due to closing the 3rd deck and not having to pay to feed/clean/secure those stands. Plus we'll get some added revenues from the playoffs. Let's take a look at what we need to fill out the roster:

Catchers: Kendall, Melhuse.
Infielders: Swisher (1b/of), Johnson (1b), Ellis (2b), Crosby (ss), Chavez (3b), Scutaro (2b/ss/3b)
Outfielders: Kotsay, Bradley, Kielty, Swisher (also 1b)
Starters: Harden, Haren, Loaiza, Blanton.
Relievers: Street, Duchscherer, Calero, Gaudin, Kennedy, Halsey, Saarloos.

So what's missing there? A 5th OF, a 5th starter, and a DH. You might argue a 1B/OFer, but I think we've already got that in the system. Kielty should obviously play against lefties. Who to partner him with? Dan Johnson. Even in this year where he couldn't seem to do much at all, he still had a .735 OPS against right-handed pitching. I think he can do better, and Swisher's 1B/LF swapping will pay off as we allow these two hitters to play to their matchup strengths.

First: The Designated Hitter. Frank's coming back. Frank wants to come back, Wolff wants him back, and while Billy Beane may think he can do well at this spot for less money, he knows Barton's at least another year away, and he's not going to fight this all too hard, (though he might argue for the sake of trying to say it'll strain the payroll, for the purpose of convincing Wolff & co to raise said payroll. We'll see how that works. The reported offer Oakland made was for 2 years/$6-8M. Frank's response was along the lines of 'we're not there yet'.

Basically, Frank's our free agent signing this year, barring us somehow trading Kotsay or Kendall. Payton's gone. No money to sign him. Witasick's gone too, not that he's needed. While this doesn't bother me much, it does mean that those last two spots on the roster are going to be filled on the cheap.

For the 5th OF spot, this isn't a big deal. Bocachica would do. Doug Clark is an option. Really, there's any number of AAAA fringe players that could be signed for fringe money to occupy a roster spot. The 5th starter, however? Even a below-average starter costs millions on the open market. We're going to have to fill it from within, somehow.

One of the few things we have a glut of are back-end prospects, albeit it they're none of them great ones. Gaudin may be the best option. Great stuff, but he's GOT to bring that K/BB ratio down. You can't pitch in the majors with a sub-1 K/BB ratio, and Gaudin's 143 ERA+ despite that is unusual in the extreme, enough so that it really makes one wonder which is the anomaly, his walk ratio or his ERA?

Other options include Saarloos, (a bad option, as I've mentioned) Halsey, Windsor, Komine, Jerome Williams, Juan Dominguez and Dan Meyer. The new manager's gonna have a lot of fun picking from that crew. I hope he picks well, because this may be the difference between contention and failure in 2007.

In the final analysis, it probably looks like we're "standing pat". Well, maybe, but take into account the following:

I will have gotten at least one crucial element of this completely wrong. Probably more than one. We'll make a trade I've never considered. Maybe we'll be trading for someone I've never heard of. Maybe we'll be trading for someone I never would have guessed was available. Maybe my arbitration guesses are as accurate as the weight of the planet as calculated by the Flat Earth Society. Maybe the A's portion of the proceeds from MLB's sale of the Nationals will go into payroll and not into ownership dividends or a bid to purchase the city of Fremont outright. When I did something like this last year (at http://www.onlybaseballmatters.com/archives/2005/10/23-nathan_around_these_parts_we.php for those who want to verify what I got right and wrong,) I got the Opening Day Salary pretty much on the nose, missed 3 of the 4 guesses on the arbitration-eligible players by $500K or more, and figured that the $7M we'd have to spend on a free agent would go to a high-priced DH while the 5th starter would be Saarloos. (Like we didn't already know Billy was smarter than me.) Bradley, Loaiza and Thomas were the surprises last year. I trust I don't have to remind everyone what the surprises were the year before. It'll be interesting to see what the surprises will be this year, and just how much of it is going to totally invalidate what I've said here.

Rosters. 25 and 40.

Nate — Sat, 02 Apr 2005 07:26:36 -0000

In the 4/1 open thread, someone was asking about whether someone would need to be bumped off the 40-man roster to make room for presumptive 5th starter Kirk Saarloos. That turns out not to be the case. Here's the presumed 25-man roster the A's will have either on Opening Day or a few days later.

First, once Saarloos is aboard, this will be the likely 25-man roster:

Catchers (2)

Kendall
Melhuse

Infielders (6)

Chavez
Crosby
Ellis
Ginter
Hatteberg
Durazo

Outfielders (5)

Byrnes
Kotsay
Swisher
Thomas
Kielty

Starting pitchers (5)

Zito
Harden
Haren
Blanton
Saarloos

Relief pitchers (7)

Dotel
Calero
Cruz
Street
Duchscherer
Yabu
Rincon

Bradford, though on the DL, I believe occupies a 40-man roster spot, so we're up to 26. Here's the rest of the 40-man:

Etherton
Rheinecker
Garcia
Mabeus
Baker
Brown
Bynum
Dan Johnson
Scutaro
Morrissey
Rouse
Watson
Perry
Harikkala

Departure of previous 40-man occupiers like Koonce, Edwards, Rose and Lehr mean that there's actually only 39 spots that I know of currently filled. Saarloos conveniently becomes the 40th.

Also, as Korach and Fosse pointed out, Saarloos isn't on the 25-man roster yet. They don't have to put him on until they need him. They speculated they would do just that, allowing the A's to carry another position player for those first few games. They seemed to be hinting (or maybe that was just the obvious answer to me) that to be cautious about Crosby's hand, they might carry Scutaro on the roster.

Giants vs A's blog

Nate — Tue, 22 Mar 2005 16:49:50 -0000

Blez said it was alright to do this in a diary, so I thought I'd post a link to a blog I started with a friend of mine, (A poor misbegotten Giants fan he,) Giants vs. A's

Just a couple posts so far, but Charlie and I are hopeful that in due time we can become your regular purveyors of baseball and snark.

Double-play percentage.

Nate — Thu, 03 Mar 2005 00:45:32 -0000

Puttering around Baseball Prospectus, as I so frequently do, I was looking in the stats section, comparing the VORPs of two outfielders discussed in another diary (Byrnes' was 33 in 630 PA vs Cameron's 27 in 570 PA, which sums up my opinion of that theoretical trade) and I noticed the stat "Double play rates for batters". Thinking how this might affect lineups, here's some of the numbers from Oakland players current and present in 2004:

It's not spelled out, but as the stats provided are DP OPPS, DP and DP%, I presume that DP opps represents the number of times the player game to bat with 0 or 1 outs, a runner on first, and hit into a DP.

Player/DP OPPS/DP/DP%

Durazo/120/10/8.3%
Kotsay/101/9/8.9%
Hatteberg/117/11/9.4%
Byrnes/125/13/10.4%
Kielty/64/7/10.9%
Melhuse/46/6/13.0%
Swisher/14/2/14.3%
Dye/125/18/14.4%
Scutaro/89/13/14.6%
Crosby/140/21/15.0%
Chavez/143/23/16.1%
Miller/88/20/22.7%

Some new arrivals to the team:

Kendall/93/12/12.9%
Thomas/59/3/5.1%
Ginter/85/14/16.5%

Left-handed hitting vs right-handed hitting.

Nate — Tue, 01 Feb 2005 04:45:03 -0000

Alright.

Enough already.

This is not directed at anyone specifically, (except perhaps Nico, who prompted this post by implying that our team would be somehow worsened if Eric Byrnes were replaced by Aubrey Huff because Huff is a lefty), but more in a general sense at people who have been complaining about 'right-handed power'.

Is this overweening fixation on left-handed vs right-handed ever going to end?

Could you at least have the sense to go look at some statistics of exactly how our team performed against LHP and RHP?

Last year, Oakland's batting average vs LHP was .277, tied for 5th in the AL. The A's OBP vs LHP was .354, 2nd in the AL, and their slugging percentage was .445, also 5th in the AL.

Against RHP, Oakland had a line of .267/.339/.428, good for 7th, 6th and 10th in the American League, respectively.

To re-iterate:

vs LHP: .277/.354/.445, OPS 4th in the AL.
vs RHP: .267/.339/.428, OPS 10th in the AL.

Yes, our best hitters are left-handed.

No, we do not need more right-handed hitting for the sole purpose of hitting lefties better. We already hit lefties better.

Add in the fact that we had 4485 PA against RHP last year, vs 1851 vs LHP, and it would seem even more important that we learn to hit righties better.

To summarize: For the love of God, stop talking about righties and lefties if you haven't seen the numbers!