SB Nation User Blog: Nate

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Nate — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 07:45:51 -0000

Cabrera at the Coliseum

Nate — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 03:26:57 -0000

So, in the big Cabrera thread, someone pointed out his career .226/.265/.314 batting line at the Coliseum and wondered if we should be worried. Someone else pointed out that this sample was all of 151 plate appearances, and that no, we shouldn't be worried. Then it got into a discussion of just what pitchers it was that Cabrera was facing. The Big 3? Or, since he only joined the AL in 2004, someone else? Out of boredom, I thought I'd look up just who those PA's came against. So, in it's entirety, a list of the pitchers Cabrera has faced in Oakland in his career, how many times he's faced them, and what lines he put up against said pitchers:

Barry Zito	20	.105	.105	.105
Joe Blanton	18	.250	.333	.313
Dan Haren	17	.313	.313	.375
Rich Harden	12	.273	.333	.273
Chad Gaudin	8	.000	.125	.000
Justin Duchscherer	5	.000	.000	.000
Esteban Loaiza	5	.400	.400	.600
Tim Hudson	5	.500	.600	.500
Dallas Braden	4	.250	.250	.250
Kirk Saarloos	4	.000	.000	.000
Joe Kennedy	4	.000	.000	.000
Greg Smith	3	.667	.667	1.000
Gio Gonzalez	3	.333	.333	.333
Kiko Calero	3	.333	.333	.667
Lenny DiNardo	3	.000	.000	.000
Brad Halsey	3	.333	.333	.333
Huston Street	3	.000	.000	.000
Mark Redman	3	.333	.333	.667
Mark Mulder	3	.333	.333	.333
Santiago Casilla	2	.000	.000	.000
Andrew Brown	2	.000	.000	.000
Ron Flores	2	.000	.000	.000
Octavio Dotel	2	.000	.000	.000
Chad Bradford	2	.000	.500	.000
Arthur Rhodes	2	.000	.500	.000
Aaron Harang	2	1.000	1.000	2.000
John Halama	2	1.000	1.000	1.000
Ricardo Rincon	1	XXX	1.000	XXX
Joey Devine	1	.000	.000	.000
Jerry Blevins	1	.000	.000	.000
Alan Embree	1	.000	.000	.000
Juan Cruz	1	.000	.000	.000
Chris Hammond	1	1.000	1.000	2.000
Jim Mecir	1	1.000	1.000	4.000
Keith Foulke	1	1.000	1.000	1.000

*Rincon only faced Cabrera once and walked him.

Dunn/Abreu looking cheaper and cheaper. Move Buck to CF?

Nate — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 05:41:43 -0000

I'd like to expound on this with relevant data from CHONE, UZR et cetera, but all the junk food I've eaten makes me tired, even if very little of it was tryptophan-laden turkey. Still, I'll try to do a good enough job of it to justify a FanPost rather than FanShot. A few things first:

The A's are a team on a budget.
To compete, they need to seek out inefficiencies in the market, such as undervalued commodities.
Moneyball was about this search and not about a love affair with high-OBP sluggers with poor defense.

This should not be news to anyone reading this site. What is also likely not news is that high-OBP sluggers with poor defense seem to be the undervalued commodities of the season. What might be news is that the best way to improve the A's right now would be to sign another high-OBP slugger with poor defense.

We've discussed improving our shortstop position. Cabrera would be expensive, and would, in many people's opinions, not provide enough improvement for the cost. Outside of Cabrera, there don't seem to be a lot of options. Tejada has been mentioned, but he'd be even more expensive, and again it's questionable just how much improvement we'd see there. Also, Houston's front office appears inclined to continuing to pretend that they're a competitive team.

We've discussed improving our starting pitching. The problem there is that there just aren't a lot of great options. Sheets, easily the best pitcher left, will command a high price despite his injury history. The rest of the options seem to be various shades of mediocre, and for a team that places a premium on dollar value, free agent pitchers are about the least efficient way to improve your team.

So what's left to improve on? How about center field? There's no consensus that Sweeney, Denorfia or Cunningham are likely to be particularly good in 2009, nor is there anyone out there on the FA market likely to be any better. What is out there are guys like Dunn and Abreu, quality bats with lead gloves. This is the part I'm flaking on in this post, where I try and project the math, but what we'd lose in defense by dropping from Sweeney to Buck and from Buck to Dunn or Abreu, seems like it could be more than made up by the increase in offense that comes from Abreu or Dunn vs Sweeney. Off the top of my head, it seems like a 1-2 win increase in total.

Or that could be all the Ruffles talking. This make sense to anyone else?

Trading Tejada?

Nate — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 22:11:09 -0000

So, A's fan here. Over at AN, one of the most frequent discussions as of late has been how to improve at SS. Some of the options have of course been the earlier effort to sign Furcal, potential efforts to sign Orlando Cabrera, or simply not playing anyone there and having Chavez and Ellis cheat over towards the hole. One name that popped up a couple times in these discussions has been Tejada's. My first thoughts were 'too old, too expensive, declining offensive and defensive skills', but it was looking up the latter that got me wondering. As Astro fans know, he was actually a bit above average with the glove, and while his hitting dipped, it still wasn't bad for a shortstop, (though it was kinda bad for $13M.)

Having done that, I then looked at the Astros moves for this offseason, what players they were signing, etc. I'd imagine Astro fans don't need to be reminded of the less-than-spectacular set of acquisitions they'd made, nor would I be blamed for assuming that the Astros are not expecting to contend this year.

With that in mind, I thought I'd ask Astro fans what they think the likelihood is that a Tejada trade might happen. Since you don't have a shortstop yourselves, (and there ain't much out there on the FA market, believe me,) presumably we would send Crosby back. He's not, y'know, good, but he's at least average defensively, and he saves you $8M versus Tejada. Also, he's not totally without upside. He's a right-handed pull hitter, so a power spike in Houston isn't entirely out of the question.

So, my questions are, is this a possibility? How much more in terms of prospects would it take?

Tejada as Plan C? (C as in anybody but Crosby)

Nate — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 20:12:58 -0000

So amidst the Cabrera discussions (still: no) and the Michael Young discussions (hell no), Tejada's name kept popping up. My first thought was somewhere between Cabrera and Young, (i.e., between still no and hell no,) but looking more closely, I'm not so sure he's any worse of an option than Cabrera, maybe even a little better.

The first thing to look at is last year's stats. Those...aren't encouraging. It makes it clear his power isn't remotely what it used to be. .435 SLG at home despite Houston's short porch, and he's even worse on the road. Also, 24 walks all season suggests that Mr. F-ing Swing at Everything has let what plate discipline he had fall by the wayside. Then of course there's his contract, which has the benefit of having just one year left on it, but we'd still be on the hook for $13M. And his defense...

It was looking up his defense that made me start to wonder. UZR had him at 5.3 runs above average last year. Now, UZR's been up and down on him, but here's what it says about his defense since he left Oakland:

2004: 8.4
2005: -8.0
2006: -0.6
2007: -6.5
2008: 5.3

A bit of a mixed bag there, but that's not uncommon in looking at year-by-year fielding metrics. Overall, though, this suggests an average defensive shortstop, one who isn't necessarily experiencing a particularly sharp decline. It was while I was on fangraphs looking up his defense that I noticed his CHONE projection for 2009: .285/.337/.441. That's of course his projection as an Astro, but there's neutral park numbers as well: .281/.332/.426. You'd have to knock it down another notch for hitting in Oakland, but still, league average defense with a near-.750 OPS?

Could it be higher, even? I freely admit that it's at this part that my logic train leaps off the rails and I start thinking unconfirmable things like 'We know what an emotional player Miggy was' (and use of the nickname here means that my statistical analysis gene is no longer the dominant one), 'stick him on a contending team and I bet he'll hit better. And hey, isn't it his contract year, too?'

There is, of course, the fact that Tejada in no way helps our pitching. Also, while his value isn't what it once was, Houston isn't going to just give him away.

So, help me out here. In the event that Sheets is a no-go for whatever reason, this seems like a pretty good fallback option, but I can't be sure if I think that because it is or because I want to hear that old drumbeat again from left field.

Can someone explain the appeal of Orlando Cabrera to me?

Nate — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 21:25:43 -0000

No, I get that Crosby's bad, I do, I certainly understood (and supported) the desire to replace him with Furcal. For the price the Dodgers got him for, I can also certainly see why we passed, assuming we were ever a serious consideration for Furcal in the first place. But once Furcal was taken off the board, it seems like a large segment of the population of AN decided that Cabrera was the next choice, and the reasoning for that eludes me.

Crosby doesn't hit well, that's established, but Cabrera's BEST season with the bat was 2003 in Montreal, when he hit .297/.347/.460, and that was pretty clearly a career year. His second best year was 2001, with a line of .276/.324/.428. Does the phrase "his best days are behind him" seem appropriate? Since 2003, the highest single-season OPS he's had was .742. Last year he had a .705 OPS in one of the better hitter's parks in the American League.

What about his defense, you say? Well true, UZR had Cabrera as 14.2 runs above average at shortstop last year, which combined with the marginal improvement over Crosby in hitting would account for 2-2.5 wins of improvement, but IF and only IF his defense stayed at exactly that level. Is that a guarantee? Not remotely. Here Cabrera's UZR ratings over the past 7 years:

2002: 1.4
2003: 6.4
2004: -1.5
2005: 24.6
2006: -1.6
2007: 9.7
2008: 14.2

In every one of those seasons, Cabrera played at least 141 games at short. Over this span he's averaged 7.6 runs above average, and the plain fact is that at age 34, he's going to be older and probably slower than he was in all of those seasons. Even if there's no drop-off due to age (not at all a guarantee), it's more likely to expect 1 win of improvement out of Cabrera's defense than 2, and it still leaves us with a hole in the batting order. Explain to me why that's worth paying millions and giving up a draft pick?

The Canadian Pitcher

Nate — Sat, 10 May 2008 01:41:29 -0000

We're going to see the return of a familiar name to the mound this Sunday. It's a name everyone on this site is exceedingly familiar with. I am writing this post to humbly urge everyone not to use that name!

In the world of theater, Shakespeare's play MacBeth is known by the euphemism "The Scottish play". A widespread superstition in the business is that the play is cursed. The mythical origins of this curse are varied. One legend says that in the original production, prop daggers were swapped for real daggers and an actor was killed. Others say the curse originated with the Three Witches, characters in the play. This story claims that the spells the characters cast were real spells taken from a witch's coven, and that coven, angered by the theft, put a curse on the play.

Of course, others have more prosaic explanations, pointing out that the play contains a large amount of fight scenes, providing more opportunity for mishap than your average play. Still, the theory persists that the play is cursed, to the point that even saying the name of the play can bring about bad luck on a set, even if the play being put on is something different entirely. Even when it is this very play that is being produced, the cast will call it "the Scottish play", and refer to the main characters as "Mr. and Mrs. M."

It occurs to me that we too have someone prone to seemingly bizarre mishap every time he steps onto his stage. He'll be starting against Texas this Sunday. I probably can't convince the announcers or Texas' PA crew or anyone else not to say the name of the Canadian pitcher, but I think all of Athletics Nation should make an effort to try to do so.

Can we agree that he is the Canadian pitcher, and try our best to break this curse?

The 25-man roster is a misnomer.

Nate — Thu, 24 May 2007 04:01:51 -0000

So, out of morbid curiosity, I thought we'd let's take a quick look at a list of everyone who has been on the A's 25-man roster so far this season:

Starting pitchers: Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin, Joe Kennedy, Dallas Braden, Colby Lewis
Relief pitchers: Huston Street, Justin Duchscherer, Kiko Calero, Alan Embree, Jay Witasick, Jay Marshall, Lenny DiNardo, Connor Robertson, Ron Flores
Catchers: Jason Kendall, Adam Melhuse
Infielders: Dan Johnson, Todd Walker, Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez, Marco Scutaro
Outfielders: Milton Bradley, Nick Swisher, Shannon Stewart, Bobby Kielty, Travis Buck, Danny Putnam, Ryan Langerhans, Chris Snelling, Hiram Bocachica, Donnie Murphy
Designated Hitters: Mike Piazza, Jack Cust

So, 36 so far, with two more names coming onto the list soon in Kotsay and Loaiza.

Is there some sort of record for number of player's on a team's 25-man roster before a certain date?

A's Rookie Card Day

Nate — Tue, 15 May 2007 14:32:04 -0000

Kotsay: So once my back is better, then they're going to fix my left arm, my right leg, both knees and elbows, and I should be back in the lineup in no time.
Bradley: That's great, Mark...
Piazza: Okay folks, gather round. It's May 15th and that's rookie card day.
Swisher: What?
Piazza: Rookie card day. It's when you have to show everyone your rookie card.
Swisher: ...you're serious?
Piazza: Oh yeah, all the veterans know about it. Right guys?
Stewart: Definitely.
Loaiza: Si
Chavez: Yup.
Kotsay: Huh?
Bradley elbows Kotsay
Kotsay: Ow, I mean, yeah, totally. (Dude, you pushed my rehab back...)
Piazza: Ok, I'll start.

Piazza: That's me all the way back in 1992.
Swisher: We pretty much have to take your word on that.
Piazza: Hey, I was catching then. Catchers have their pictures taken with their gear on.
Kendall: Speak for yourself.

Piazza: Huh, they told me I had to wear the mask.
Kendall: To be fair I am much prettier than you.
Buck: Here's mine!

Kotsay: It's certainly...accurate.
Buck: Yeah, they took it last week.
Kotsay: I think the point of this is being missed.
Kendall: Let's see your card, Mark?
Kotsay: ...Fine.

peals of laughter
Bradley: What the hell is that supposed to be?
Kotsay: Argh. They were trying to be artsy or something.
Kendall: You're holding that bat like it's a giant penis.
Kotsay: Maybe you should take lessons Mr. .400 OPS, or is that what you've been-
Piazza: Knock it off! Jeez. Milt, show us your card.

Swisher: You looked ticked even then.
Buck: What team is that?
Bradley: The Expos. I was drafted by the Expos.
Buck: blank stare
Bradley: The Montreal Expos.
Buck: blank stare
Bradley: In Canada.
Buck: I don't...
Swisher: He doesn't believe in Canada.
Bradley: He what?
Swisher: He thinks we're hazing the rookies when we talk about Canada.
Buck: Oh come on, I take the ribbing in good humor, but that doesn't mean I'm gonna buy these stories about a country full of people who like hockey.
Bradley: Where does he think Rich came from?
Buck: Rich is a cyborg.
Bradley: ...
Buck: He breaks a lot.
Bradley: That's...
Swisher: Danny, let's see yours.
Haren: Mine is awesome.

Swisher: You look like a mafia enforcer in a uniform.
Kotsay: You look like you're eight feet tall.
Kendall: What did you have to give the cameraman to agree to take the shot like that?
Haren: ...just some tickets. And a bat signed by Mark McGwire.
Kendall: You had a bat signed by McGwire?
Haren: Well, technically it just had a signature that SAID Mark McGwire...
Loaiza: Esta mi:

Swisher: Holy crap. Were you drafted when you were 15?
Loaiza: Diez y cinco. Diez y ocho. Es como...
Kotsay: Ok save it for A's Amigos there, compadre.
Loaiza: Puto.
Kotsay: Alan, let's see yours?
Embree: That's ok.
Kotsay: C'mon, it's your turn.
Embree: I'd really rather n-
Kendall steals the card from Embree's locker
Embree: HEY!

Kendall: What the hell?
Kotsay: Um, what is...
Embree: I misunderstood.
Kotsay: Misunderstood?
Embree: They said we had a photo shoot. I was thinking GQ.
Kotsay: ...
Bradley: ...
Kendall: ...
Loaiza: Cabron
Bradley: Ok, let's see yours, Swish.
Swisher: I...musta left it in my other pants.
Bradley: Nuh-uh. Show.
Swisher: Awwww

Kendall: ...
Kotsay: ...
Loaiza: ...
Embree: ...
Haren: ...
Crosby: ...
Ellis: ...
Chavez: ...
Piazza: ...
Geren: ...
Beane: ...
Bradley: We meant your rookie card, fool.
Swisher: Ah screw you guys.

Todd Walker Designated For Assignment

Nate — Sat, 12 May 2007 21:26:00 -0000

From the AP via Yahoo.

Not too much to say about this one. Walker was an emergency signing made necessary by the injury to Dan Johnson. With Johnson's return, and the success had in the DH spot by Jack Cust, we really don't have a great deal of use for him. He'll refuse a minor league assignment. Barring some other Snelling or Cust out there that a team wants to give us for him, I imagine he'll be released in ten days.