SB Nation User Blog: NateHST

Joe Morgan does it again!

NateHST — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 01:50:59 -0000

Joe Morgan does it again!

You guys remember Fire Joe Morgan? Yeah...I miss it, too. But FanGraphs has picked up where FJM left off and proved that Joe Morgan has literally no clue regarding anything in baseball except how to hit the ball, which he stopped doing when he retired.

It's a dandy, folks.

Oakland pitching prospect Sam Demel.

NateHST — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 03:27:40 -0000

Oakland pitching prospect Sam Demel.

If you think Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid

NateHST — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 01:49:31 -0000

Something I’ve never understood, as a baseball fan—or even a sports fan in general—is why fans are so quick to turn around after a failure and go for the throat. Even in the playoffs, fans are so quick to mutiny against the people that got them that far in the first place.

Here at AN, there has been a whole bunch of Beane hating lately, and it’s all nonsense. I’ve heard people attack him and try to hold him responsible for the team’s shortcomings in the playoffs, as if it was Beane himself that failed to slide in that all-too-infamous play.

I am not a member of the In Billy We Trust club, but I’ll be damned if he isn’t one of the best GMs in the game today, and I can defend nearly every move he’s made in the past several years. I’m going to start by defending the trades that everybody points to when they’re trying to prove their “Beane Sucks!!!” theories.

The Trades

12/16/04 – Tim Hudson for Juan Cruz, Charles Thomas and Dan Meyer: People tend to attack this trade because none of the players really succeeded in Oakland, but people forget that Hudson was a free agent after the season, and the A’s had no chance of resigning him. Cruz was the 6th ranked prospect in the MLB two years earlier. Meyer wasn’t too shabby either. He was the 82nd best prospect in the MLB, and if you take a look at his minor league stats, he never posted an ERA over 3.00 in over 300 innings. Unfortunately, he never told anybody about the pain in his shoulder, and pitched himself to the surgeon. Thomas was a bust.

To say this was a bad move by Beane is saying that Beane knew that Meyer was injured and didn’t do anything about it. Meyer could have been a stud, and now that he’s healthy with the Marlins, he’s pretty good. Cruz took a long time to develop, and the A’s didn’t have enough time. Overall, it’s a pretty good trade to get two top 100 prospects and a flier on another for just one season of Hudson.

12/18/04 – Mark Mulder for Daric Barton, Dan Haren and Kiko Calero: Most tend to realize this is an awesome trade by Beane, but some are still upset at Barton’s 2008 season. I’ve heard plenty of people claim that Beane is a bad talent evaluator because guys like Ludwick and Pena and Nelson Cruz succeeded years later on other teams, but don’t mention Danny Haren, who the A’s picked up as a mildly successful starter/swingman and watched him turn into one of the best pitchers in the league.

12/13/05 – Andre Ethier for Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez: This is probably the most hated and most cited trade by Beane-haters, because Bradley was a problem child and Ethier turned into a solid RF for Los Angeles. But Bradley was one of the main reasons that Oakland made it to the ALCS in 2006. Something I’ve noticed as odd is that some of the same people complaining about Oakland trading away a good, young outfielder for a veteran are the same ones thinking Beane is crazy for holding onto Holliday for so long and demanding they trade him for a good, young prospect. Come on, now.

12/14/07 – Dan Haren and Conner Robertson for Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Carter and Brett Anderson: Dan Haren was signed to an affordable contract for a few years, and was developing into a true ace, but this is one of the biggest hauls in any trade by anybody. Gonzalez was their best prospect and MLB’s 22nd best, while Anderson was their 3rd best and MLB’s 36th best, Cunningham their 7th best and Carter their 10th best. Smith and Eveland were average major league starters for a year. Don’t forget they turned 33% of that trade into Matt Holliday. I would make that trade literally every time, and you’d be a terrible GM to pass up that much talent if it was offered.

01/03/08 – Nick Swisher for Gio Gonzalez, Fautino de los Santos and Ryan Sweeney: This is my least favorite trade when it comes to people criticizing it. All three of those players were ranked in the top 100 by BA at some point in the last three years. Going into last year, FDSL was thought by some to be a better prospect than Cahill and Anderson. Gio has amazing stuff but still no control, and Sweeney has oodles of power in that body that he just hasn’t tapped into it yet.

No matter how you look at it, it makes no sense to blame Beane for FDSL’s injuries, Gio’s control problems, and Sweeney’s stunted development. Let me ask you a question: If all the players were healthy, which set of players would you rather have? FDSL, Sweeney and Gio or Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez? That’s who Kenny Williams got for Swisher PLUS another minor league reliever. Williams is a bad GM. Beane is a good one.

07/18/08 – Joe Blanton for Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman and Matt Spencer: At the time, I thought this was just an okay deal. Cardenas and two throw-ins for Blanton. Beane and his scouts obviously saw something they liked in Outman, as he turned into one of our better starters this year. Cardenas turned into one of the best 2B prospects in the game, and Spencer is still a question mark – albeit a question mark that has lots of power.

07/09/08 – Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Josh Donaldson, Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher and Matt Murton: Harden as real fun to watch when he was healthy, and he was healthy for several starts with the Cubs that year, but when he was injured he was one of the most hated A’s ever. Murton turned into Wimberly, a speedy utility man. Gallagher turned into Scott Hairston, our CF for the next couple of years, and Donaldson is a walking machine and could turn into our future 3B. Gaudin struggled with the Cubs and is now struggling in San Diego, of all places.

Believe me, I would love to have Blanton, Ethier, Swisher, Haren and Hudson still on my team, but in all of those trades, Beane got more talent than he probably should have, and more talent than other GMs usually get for similar players.

The Draft

I honestly can’t believe people criticize the A’s drafts, citing draftees like Pennington and Brown who are underachieving or just out of baseball. With little spending money, the A’s have to take advantage of cheap, young players and then when they get expensive, trade them and turn them into more cheap, young players.

Beane took over in 1998. I understand that Beane didn’t have complete control over the draft as soon as he took over, but recent drafts have been perfectly good. Here is a list of players drafted since Beane took over in 1998: Mulder, Byrnes, Zito, Ludwick, Harden, Crosby, Ethier, Swisher, Blanton, Teahen, Suzuki, Buck, Cahill, Bailey, Doolittle, Brown, Demel, and Weeks.

It’s understandably frustrating that the A’s are unable to sign players of this caliber to long term deals, but again, it isn’t Beane’s fault. He’s not in charge of how much money he has to spend – that comes from ownership.

The Rebuilding Process

I think this is what has caused most of the frustration this year. The A’s traded away all their quality pitchers for prospects, then abandoned that plan and went for it this year. The thing is, Beane most certainly didn’t abandon that plan. He gave up spare parts to get Wuertz, and the only legitimate prospect he gave up to get Holliday was CarGon (who still has an OPS in the .600s with awful strike zone control).

It was never, “If we don’t win it this year, we’re done for a few years.” Beane saw an opening in a weak AL West. It turned out much stronger than expected, though none of the experts were saying that. He signed Cabrera, Nomar, Giambi and Springer to cheap deals. Aging veterans are more predictable than prospects, but far from an exact science.

So please, people. This is not the end of the world. Beane is not trying to seduce your sister. Beane did not write Moneyball about himself to make him more popular. Beane is a fantastic GM. BEANE IS NOT INFALLIBLE, BUT HE TENDS TO NOT DO STUPID THINGS. He doesn’t do stupid things like sign Juan Pierre to a giant contract. He doesn’t sign FA pitchers to massive deals, because they’re expensive and volatile. He doesn’t spend millions on players like Alfonso Soriano and put them in the leadoff spot. He sells high and buys low. If the owners gave Beane a blank check, it would be a safe wager to bet that the A’s would be as good as the Yankees and Red Sox year in and year out. But that’s not the way things are, and you should consider yourself lucky that you have Beane pulling the strings for your favorite team.

Which team has the best young players in the MLB?

NateHST — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:59:32 -0000

Obviously this website is for MiLB players, but there are plenty of posts regarding prospects that recently reached the majors, and how they are faring. If you guys don't think this is the right place for this post, let me know and I'll take it down. Hopefully though it will generate some discussion and maybe even get rec'd and move Daaron's ridiculous Mazzaro posts.

The reason for this post is a recent post over at MLBTradeRumors.com that was about which team had the best young core of players at the major league level. The discussion generated well over 100 posts, mainly from fans of different defending their team's young players. The two that jumped out were the Dodgers and the Rays, who both do have a very nice group of players. Personally, I'm an A's fan, and I think they should be in the discussion, but I definitely don't think they're number one.

Tampa Bay - The Rays have a core of players where Longoria, Upton, and Price jump out at you, but the guys aroung them are pretty damn good, too. Niemann, Sonnanstine, Garza and Shields fill out the rotation, with Navarro as their battery mate. They've gotten plenty of hype due to the WS run last year, and if you ask me, it's deserved.

Los Angeles - The Dodgers are the class of the National League, and it's because they have almost a perfect mix of veteran and young talent. The names speak for themselves: Broxton, Billingsley, McDonald, Kershaw, Martin, Loney, Ethier, and Kemp. Whatever holes they had after these guys, they filled with veterans. Expect them to be competitive for a long time.

Boston - The Sox received a lot of attention that wasn't focused on the Rays. Guys like Lester, Masterson, and Bucholz are the good young pitchers. Papelbon is old, and Bucholz is overrated. Pedroia, Lowrie and Ellsbury are all pretty good to very good position players. Sorry Sox fans, I think Pedroia and Ellsbury are both overrated as well. Very talented core, but if it was the Mariners with that group, Pedroia never would have won the MVP and they wouldn't be receiving as much credit in the best young MLB players.

Oakland - While I don't think Oakland is number one, I think they're definitely top five. With a pitching staff of Outman, Braden, Mazzaro, Cahill and Anderson (all 25 or younger), and Bailey closing games out, it makes up for their weaker position players - though it's not as weak as it seems. I think Barton will be fine if he ever gets another chance, and Suzuki is one of the best young catchers in the game.

Texas - Like the A's, the Rangers skyrocket in about a year or so when they get another handful of prospects graduating into the MLB. Holland is there already, though, along with Teagarden, Saltalamacchia, Andrus, Davis and Kinsler. I'm sure I'm not alone when I say I the Rangers and A's will become a pretty damn good rivalry in the years to come (not that it isn't already).

Milwaukee - I think the Brewers wouldn't jump out at a lot of people, but maybe they should. With Gamel, Fielder, Braun, Hardy and Gallardo, they aren't as deep as some teams, but that's a pretty good group of players.

Honorable Mentions

Cincinnati - Cueto, Volquez, Bruce and Votto

Atlanta - Hanson, Jurrjens, McCann, Escobar, and Kotchman

San Francisco - Cain, Lincecum and Sandoval

Florida - Ramirez, Johnson, Coghlan, Volstad, Hermida

Obviously, I've forgotten some, and you disagree with my top five or six (I wrestled with the idea of the Brewers as an honorable mention or not). Hopefully it will generate some discussion. Discuss below.

What is wrong with Jack Cust?

NateHST — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 20:21:30 -0000

I love watching A's games, and I love dissecting box scores afterward. And while I do pay quite a bit of attention to some of the more intricate statistics, I rarely check up on season statistics. Today, I did just that. I was quite shocked to see Jack Cust sporting a lowly .760 OPS - well, lowly for him anyway.

So, what's the deal with Cust?

I remember reading stories about how Cust was spending time this offseason training his eyes, and that it would help him see the ball better, help his contact skills and lower is strikeout rates. I also remember reading stories during Spring Training about how A's hitting coaches were working on Cust simply to make more contact and cut down on the strikeouts.

Now, I've never really felt that strikeouts were such a terrible thing. There are times when an out can be productive, when moving the runners over, but there are also times when outs turn into double plays, so honestly, I never minded Custs strikeouts - especially when he was getting on base over 37% of the time.

Cust has 65 K through 63 games so far, which is about 13% less than he did last year, when he K'd 197 times in 148 games. Down from 41% to 28%. Good job, Oakland A's hitting coaches, you finally did something right!

Wrong.

His BB% is down, too, to 11.5% from 18.8% in 2008. Cust's attempt at making more contact has taken him away from what he does best - striking out a lot, hitting big homeruns, and getting on base. At .760, his OPS is 91 points less than it was last year, and he's really not helping the team like he did the last two years.

His HR/FB%, which sat around 30% the last two years, is at 16% this year. He's hitting more flyballs and less of them are leaving the park. And while his BABIP is .266, with room for improvement, he likely won't see a huge improvement unless he gets back to what he did in the past.

In my opinion, the A's need to tell Cust to be Cust. Teams have tried to change who he was before, with bad results just the same. If A's coaches keep telling him that strikeouts are bad, a chain reaction happens. With two strikes, Cust begins to reach for pitches he can't do anything with, only to avoid the strikeout. That's why he's hitting all these weak flyballs. In the past, Cust was never a guy who was scared to hit with 2 strikes, and often worked the count. With a full count, he could take a close pitch and either A) take a walk or B) strikeout. In trying to avoid the strikeout, he's just making weak contact and swinging at pitches he can't do anything with.

The Oakland A's, of all organizations, should realize that Custs greatest strength was getting on base and hitting for power, no matter how he goes about doing it. When cutting down on strikeouts, which aren't that bad to begin with, becomes so detrimental to a player's OBP, it's not worth it at all.

Implications of the Draft

NateHST — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 18:45:22 -0000

Taking a page out of last year's draft's book, the A's took several talented players in the later rounds and went over the recommended slot bonus to sign them. That's why we have Brett Hunter, Rashun Dixon, and Dusty Coleman in the system right now.

This year, as many of you know, the A's did the same thing. The A's will almost certainly have to go above the recommended bonus to sign Green, a Boras client, who is rumored to be asking for $4MM. Since the A's shortstop cupboard is all but bare, save for Coleman in Kane County, the A's would be foolish not to sign a talent like Green.

What the A's did after the first round was a bit surprising though. The A's took Max Stassi, widely considered a first round talent that fell due to signability concerns, in the fourth round. The figure floating around that Stassi needs to break his commitment to UCLA is $1.5MM. It's certainly doable, because the A's were rumored to be interested Donovan Tate, whose price tag was reportedly $6MM, though the A's may not have been interested in him at that price.

Anyways, the A's also drafted pricy, talented players in Ian Krol, a high school pitcher from Illinois, and Sam Dyson, a huge talent that may be a tough sign for a couple of reasons. First is that he is only a junior and he has an extensive injury history; a healthy senior year puts him another year away from arm problems. Also, he was inconsistent last year; if he went back to school next year and was consistently good, his stock would skyrocket. There are fantastic writeups about Green, Stassi and Dyson here on AN, and I recommend you check them out.

What does this mean, though?

The A's were rumored to be a suitor for prized Dominican shortstop, Miguel Angel Sano, widely considered the best prospect that will become available on July 2, the day international prospects that are 16 years old become signable. In early reports, Sano was reported to be worth something in the $2.5MM-$3MM range, but Pittsburgh, the main suitor for Sano, may be considering going into the Ynoa-range to sign him, throwing upwards of $4MM at him.

The A's signed Ynoa and paid lots of overslot money last year, right? Well, Jemile Weeks signed for just under $2MM, the suggested bonus for that slot, not $4MM. And a bidding war with Pittsburgh, who would made to look foolish if somebody else signs Sano, would be costly and pointless.

In my opinion, the talented draft class all but takes Oakland out of the Sano sweepstakes. All is not lost, though, because the A's are one of the prime suitors for Jean Carlos Batista, a shortstop prospect that will likely sign for somewhere around $1MM when the international signing day rolls around. Apparently, he already has several offers over $500,000. The A's will be competing with Dodgers, Rangers, Indians and Yankees over him.

Kiley McDaniel over at Baseball Prospectus did a fantastic writeup about him. Batista is switch-hitting, projectable kid who is 6'1", 170 right now. His smooth swing has been compared to Carlos Beltran's. His defense is advanced and solid, possibly making him even more desirable to Sano, who, if he grows any larger, will likely have to move to a corner infield or even an outfield position.

Overall, I'm extremely excited about this years draft class. It turned out much better than I expected it to. Of course, it's only that good if the players sign, which I expect most of them to do. The A's will have to do so in order to compete with the Rangers down the road.

A future of the A's and Rangers battling for supremacy of the AL West and maybe even the AL appears more and more likely. With the two best minor league systems, they both had good drafts, with Texas getting Matt Purke, one of the best high school pitchers available, and Scheppers, Mendonca and Erlin (a NorCal HS kid) after that. The rich are getting richer.

Poll

Overall, assuming the A's sign their picks (if you don't feel they will, then grade likewise), what grade would you give the A's draft?

A

77 votes

A-

100 votes

B+

109 votes

B

40 votes

B-

7 votes

C+

4 votes

C

4 votes

C-

2 votes

D+

0 votes

D

0 votes

D-

2 votes

F

1 votes

346 votes | Poll has closed

Oakland's Trade Bait: 3B Prospects (NL Edition)

NateHST — Wed, 20 May 2009 02:32:25 -0000

In the third installment of my Oakland Trade Bait series, I'm going to be doing something a little differently. Instead of looking at who Oakland has to trade, I'm going to be looking at who Oakland wants. With last night's news that Eric Chavez's career is all but over, Oakland's problem at third base has changed from a big hole to a vast, gaping chasm.

The Carter experiment was a big failure. Other than that, it was been basically fill-ins at the hot corner for A's affiliates. Cardenas could eventually make the move, but only if Ellis is healthy and not traded, and then after that, if Jemile Weeks stays healthy and gets something out of his potential. Jason Christian and Christian Vitters are doing alright in the low minors, but neither could help Oakland right now, and neither project to be stars.

Today I will be looking at almost every 3B prospect in the National League. As a reference, I mainly used John Sickels' blog, which is a tremendous site which you should check out if you aren't already a member. I'll be looking at 3B prospects team by team, comparing their holes with our strengths, and looking at possible win/win deals.

The A's strength is obviously pitching up and down. And I mean all kinds of pitching: safe bets like Outman and Simmons, wild cards like H-Rod and Leon, and high-risk, high-reward types like Hunter and Ross. Oakland also has quite a bit of strength at 1B, with Doolittle, Carter and Barton. Second base is also a strong point, with strong prospects like Weeks and Cardenas and high quality replacement level players like Pennington and Petit.

In looking at different prospects, I'll be including where Sickels ranked them in his top 20 by team (on his website, not his book), his grade (in this case A through C, where all grades take into account risk, potential, etc.), whatever little blurbs he wrote about them on his website, and how they're doing this year.

By the way, you are forewarned. This post is a doozy.

Florida Marlins

After a hot start, the Marlins have slowed down a lot, and actually have a team BA (not that it matters) lower than the Athletics, but still find themselves just 3 GB of the division. Florida has gotten very little production out of their outfield and their second basemen. They have the fifth best FIP in baseball right now (their two best relievers have been Kiko Calero and Dan Meyer!), so pitching isn't really a huge problem.

I don't know if hte Marlins would be willing to take on a contract like Holliday's, but he would put them right back in the NL East race. One thing the Marlins don't have, though, is a lot of quality pitching prospects, so a swap might be possible.

3) Matt Dominguez (B+) - "Close to an A-, impressive power with steller glove, but have some concerns about his plate discipline." Dominguez has hit well at home, in a hitter's park, but not very well on the road. He's struggling this year at A+, OPSing just .597. Perhaps a Mazzaro or Simmons for Dominguez swap?

San Diego Padres

The Padres minor league system is a lot like the Marlins, except a lot crappier. They have an awful lot of 1B and OF prospects, and not a lot of quality pitching. I find it hard to believe that the Padres would part way with any quality prospects, but they don't have any awesome 3B prospects.

19) Logan Forsythe (C+) - "Good glove, polished bat, lack of power could make him a Joe Randa type." He has shown tremendous control of the strike zone, hitting .310/.470/.484, with 34 BB against 30 K so far in A+. He's far away, but those numbers are nice. If he could develop some more power, or just keep that bat control, he could turn into a real nice prospect. Maybe a guy like Lansford or Italiano? Would they get the job done?

St. Louis Cardinals

After a quick start, the Cardinals have fallen to 3 GB of the Brewers in the NL Central. With one of the better offenses in baseball, hte pitching is what's causing them problems. Without a true closer, the Cardinals bullpen is terrible. If the Cardinals are looking for pitching help now, the A's have a lot of high level replacement relievers (guys like Cameron and Kilby), but if they want legit pitching prospects, they're probably looking at a Demel or Carignan.

St. Louis also has a pretty bad infield defense, especially at 2B with Schumaker. If they wanted to replace him with a poorer hitter, but much better defender, they'd be looking to deal for Petit or Pennington.

2) Brett Wallace (A-) - "Monster bat should be ready within a year. Glove at third should be adequate in the short run." Hitting .280/.403/.438 in 34 games at AA, but I believe he's been moved up to AAA now. I don't know if the A's would want to give up much for him if he wasn't going to stick at 3B for more than a couple of years, but he's blocked at 1B by the best player in baseball. He's not as slow as he looks; I don't know if he could play the OF, but even there, the Cards have Ludwick, Ankiel, Rasmus and Duncan.

I wonder if a prospect swap built around Cardenas+ would get the job done. He helps out as soon as this year, and Cardenas would be ready sooner in the NL, possibly helping them out by the end of the year, too. Since they need bullpen help, would you do Demel/Carignan/Leon/Gio and Cardenas for Wallace? Too much? To little?

12) David Freese (C+) - "An older prospect and plate discipline looks spotty, but he has power and a good glove at third." Apparently, Freese is injured due to a nagging ankle injury sustained in a car accident a while ago. He's appeared in 9 games for the Cardinals this year.

14) Allen Craig (C+) - "A personal favorite, could rank as high as 9 or 10 depending on crteria. I think he'll hit, though glove isn't the best and he's got a lot of competition." He's currently OPSing .659 at AAA.

With so much competition, I think a deal for Demel or Carignan might get the job done for a guy like Freese or Craig. Freese looks better (to me, anyways), even though he's older. The A's need power, and a deal like that looks to be win/win.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are just plane bad. They pitched well enough for about a four or five day stretch earlier this season, but they're back where they belong: 7 GB. All I know is we'd have to give up a truckload of talent and then some to get Alvarez, including Cahill or Anderson. The Pirates trading Alvarez isn't going to happen, but with him being the 3B of the future, they have a couple other decent 3B prospects, and need a lot of pitching help. Andy LaRoche is also an interesting name.

6) Neil Walker (C+) - "Slipping in strike zone judgement is worrisome, but he's still quite young and adapted well to third base. When Andy LaRoche gets hurt again, Walker could have a brief window of oppurtunity before Alvarez is ready." Low average, poor plate discipline, and is struggling at AAA, just like last year.

12) Matt Hague (C+) - "He always hit in college, and he's hit well as a pro, too. Will probably move to the outfield. An overlooked sleeper." I'm not sure if the move to the OF would be prompted by him sucking at 3B or the presence of Alvarez and LaRoche.

20) Jarek Cunningham (C) - "Played very well in rookie ball, strong bat, his stock had dropped pre-draft due to injury." He's very far away, and he hasn't played in 2009. He's probably not the answer to to the A's 3B problem.

Houston Astros

Quite simply, the Astros wouldu be stupid to trade away ANY of their prospects. With Jason Castro as their best prospect ranked as a B prospect, they need all the help they can get.

8) Chris Johnson (C+) - "Hasn't hit outside the Texas League. I've seen both Sutton [I'll mention him later] and Johnson play. Johnson has better tools, but Sutton is far more polished and skillful." He's struggling mightily in AAA so far.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are a really good team right now. Even without Manny, they still have an average to good player at nearly every position (except for wherever Juan Pierre is playing), and their farm system is well-balanced, too. There really is not much they need, and with Casey Blake clearly not the long-term answer at 3B, they may be reluctant to give up their good, young third basemen.

9) Austin Gallagher (C+) - "Sleeper prospect. Needs to tighten strike zone, but I think more power will come." Still in A- ball, quite a long ways away.

15) Pedro Baez (C) - "Excellent power potential and a strong arm, but there's a 43.7% chance (to pull a number out of the air) that he is pitching four years from now. Horrible plate discipline." Sickels is right on, here. He's OPSing .789 in A+, and the OPS is very heavy in slugging. He could turn into a Pedro Feliz type player.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants are 6.5 games out, but have a very good rotation, and could try to make a run for it with Manny out, though I don't why. They have Pablo Sandoval right now, who looks like a possible long-term solutino at 3B. Sabean's always had an obsession with that big bat, so maybe they could make a play for Holliday? They also need 2B help.

6) Conor Gillaspie (B-) - "I ike the Midwest guys. Polished bat, will hit for average and get on base, glove needs to be more reliable, but I think it will." He hasn't hit for power at all so far, slugging just .339 with 1 HR in 58 career games in the minors.

19) Jesus Guzman (C+) - "Signed away from Oakland as a minor league free agent. I think his progress was real." He's hitting .354/.376/.578, and he would be real nice to have right now. Do you think a deal like Leon for Guzman would work out and get him back?

New York Mets

The Mets are tied with Philadelphia for first place in the NL East. They have a weak LF right now, and a deal of Holliday for a blue chip prospect could work well for both teams. The Mets also have Daniel Murphy playing LF. I remember hearing on ESPN that Murphy could be the guy that moves Wright off 3B, because his defense is so good. Obviously it's ESPN and therefore unreliable, but he hasn't played 3B at all in the majors, so I really have no idea if he would stick at 3B or not.

1) Wilmer Flores (B+) - "I might take some flack for this, but in this case I think his upside is higher than F-Mart. If I could have just one of them, I'd pick Flores." Flores is a long ways away, but represents a high-risk/high-reward at SS/3B. He would cost a lot, and most likely acquired for a Holliday than a prospect swap.

6) Jefry Marte (C+) - "Could be a star if it all comes together, but still rather raw. Considering B- but for me that's aggressive for a rookie ball guy." Marte is struggling badly in low A. He's a very long ways away, and a big risk.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies played well a couple of years ago, but haven't been able to put it together over the last couple of years. They have Ian Stewart, who has seen success but not consistent playing time. Steward could cost an ugly amount of talent, but he represents a real solution at 3B. If they keep Stewart, he's blocking their 3B prospects. The Rockies always need pitching prospects.

11) Darin Holcomb (C+) - "Excellent plate discipline. But Power and defense need to show at higher levels." Struggling quite a bit in AA after skipping A+.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are in first place in the NL Central, but just lost second baseman Rickie Weeks for the season. Their pitch-to-contact staff is now in trouble, because they have to slide people over and significantly downgrade their defense. Is Cardenas too much of a stretch for them? He may not be ready quick enough. Petit and Pennington could fit.

1) Mat Gamel (B+) - "Bat is very impressive, not sure about where he fits on the roster due to defensive limitations." Game's a very interesting case. In all likelihood, he's not a 3B, he's a LF or a DH. But the Brewers already have a shitty 3B playing LF in Braun. I think he could be had, but he'd be expensive and unlikely to stick at 3B. Does the bat outweigh the D? I doubt it.

14) Taylor Green (C+) - "Solid hitter, but perhaps not enough pop to play third in the long run." There was talk that he was included in the Sabathia deal, but the Indians chose another player instead. I like him, and he wouldn't be impossible to acquire, but he's a ways away to help soon, and there are still questions about his bat.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have a lot of good young pieces and they're close to competing, but in that ballpark, their pitching could always use improvements. Some good relief prospects might be able to get talks going.

4) Neftali Soto (B) - "Very impressed with his long term potential. Could use more patience, but strikeout rate isn't bad and he's very young." He seriously never walks.

7) Drew Sutton (C+) - "I see him as a useful role player due to broad secondary skills." He is a second baseman, but he's seen time at third. He was traded to the Reds by the Astros for Jeff Keppinger. Decent idea.

10) Juan Francisco (C+) - "Enormous power potential, very young, but dismal discipline. Did reduce strikeouts last year." Sickels is right on, again. He has an OBP of less than .300 in his minor league career, but very good power.

Chicago Cubs

With Aramis Ramirez, a guy like Vitters isn't untouchable, but he would cost quite a bit. The Cubs farm system isn't really that strong right now.

1) Josh Vitters (B+) - "Hopefully the home run power should start to come in 2009. Great contact hitting skills adn still very yonug." Hitting .352/.382/.541 in Low A. He's a long ways away, but that power may finally be coming around. The Cubs will be reluctant to give him, but a good deal could be made. Maybe a guy like Mazzaro and a relief prospect? It seems like too little to me.

Washington Nationals

Really nothing there... Oakland probably could have built a huge package for Zimmerman a while ago, but he recently signed a long-term extension, so that's probably all but impossible now. He's basically all they have.

Arizona Diamondbacks

There isn't anything here, either. Of Sickels top 20, 16 of them are pitchers and 14 of those are RHP. They're pretty much looking for the same things the A's are.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have a very good infield, even if Rollins is overrated. Utley is a fixture at 2B. Feliz is what he is: a 20 HR guy with low OBP. He's consistent though. When Feliz' time is up, they may move Donald to 3B, because he doesn't sound he'll stick at SS.

4) Jason Donald (B-) - "Still doubt he has the range for SS. But I like the bat a lot. Borderline grade B?" Maybe a move to 3B would be good for him. He's struggling in AAA right now.

Atlanta Braves

Chipper's there now, but he's getting old. Even when Chippers out, the Braves seem to due alright at 3B. Their farm is a lot weaker after giving most of it up in the Teixeira deal a couple years ago.

15) Eric Campbell (C+) - "If his head is on straight, could surprise people in '09" Struggling badly in AA.

*****************************************

This pretty much sums up all the NL 3B prospects, and it confirms what I suspected. There's not a whole lot there. It's not as easy as, "Go get a good, young third baseman, but don't give up Cahill, Anderson, Mazzaro, Cardenas or Carter." If you want a Vitters or a Wallace or an Alvarez or a Dominguez, you'll have to give up as much talent as you're getting in return.

Of those top tier prospects, very few of them are MLB ready, so patience is going to be a must. If you're pushing for Wallace, chances are, the A's will have the same problem a few years down the road, when he has to move off 3B. Alvarez is too expensive. Vitters and Dominguez are pretty far away, and will require a lot of patience.

In my opinion, the easiest guys to acquire would be Jesus Guzman or David Freese. I like Logan Forsythe, too, and don't think we'd have to give up an arm and a leg to get any of them. They're all blocked or have lots of competition, and we could likely deal from a position of strength, like a Leon or a Ross or a Demel.

Anyways, what do you gys think? I undersand that many of you want to say you're sick of Hannahan and Crosby, and want a real good prospect like Alvarez or Wallace, but are you prepared to offer up Cahill or Anderson for him?

A's had 2nd best 1st round draft picks in the 90s

NateHST — Mon, 18 May 2009 18:47:07 -0000

A's had 2nd best 1st round draft picks in the 90s

An article over at BtB looked at 1st round draftee's WAR for their years under team control. With Zito, Mulder, Grieve and Chavez, the A's were second only to the Blue Jays in getting value for their 1st round picks.

Oakland's Trade Bait: Ellis

NateHST — Thu, 14 May 2009 20:40:58 -0000

The Unicorn is an interesting case when it comes to Oakland's trade bait. He's injured right now and it's a leg injury which, if it ends up affecting him when he comes back, could hurt his range an awful lot. He is expected to come back early-to-mid June.

What makes him such an interesting case is that nobody really knows what to expect from him. In 2005, he was worth 20.5 RAR but last year he was worth -4.7 RAR. His fielding as also improved every year he's been in the majors; last year his glovework was worth 17.4 RAR, tied for third most in the majors.

Back in September, Ellis underwent major shoulder surgery and it was unclear whether or not he would return to form defensively. Up until the calf injury, Ellis looked very good with the glove, and appeared to return to last season's form.

Unfortunately, his hitting hasn't returned to 2005 form, and it doesn't appear to be trending that way in general. He was OPSing .503 so far with zero homeruns. However, his BABIP was a mere .245. What bothers me is that Ellis hits so many weak pop-ups, and rarely makes solid contact with the ball. Either way, it should improve somewhat when he returns from the DL.

It strikes me as unfortuante that Ellis' value almost exclusively from his defense, because it seems that a lot of teams don't value defense as much as the A's. Here is a few players that Ellis was more valuable than last year: Alfonso Soriano, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Vladimir Guerrero. Signed to a team friendly contract similar to to the one Ellis is signed to, do you think any team would give up the same amount of talent to acquire Ellis than any of those players? I'm skeptical.

If the A's were to falter this year and hold a fire sale, then there are a couple scenarios. It appears to be clear that the A's don't want to give Cardenas a lot of time at 3rd base, and even though he's struggling at AAA, he could be capable of taking over early next year. The A's also have Petit and Pennington capable of taking over 2B this year, and with Cardenas coming up fast, Ellis might have to be moved eventually, anyways.

Of all the players that were worth around 3.1 WAR last year, nearly none of them were traded. Jason Bay, who was worth 2.9 WAR, was traded by the Pirates to the Red Sox in a three way deal that netted them Andy LaRoche (LA), Bryan Morris (LA), Craig Hanson (BOS) and Brandon Moss (BOS). As I discussed in the Holliday trade bait piece, the Bay deal was built around one solid prospect and some major league pieces.

Bay was in the middle of a deal worth $5.75MM in 2008 and $7.5MM in 2009. Anybody that trades for Ellis will get a similar team-friendly deal signed in the 08-09 offseason worth $5MM in 09, and $5.5MM in 2010 and a club option worth $6MM in 2011. I think Bay is an extremely comparable deal, but again, I don't think teams would give up talent for a strictly-defensive player, especially coming off surgery and an injury.

However, let's look at teams in need of a second baseman and see if we can figure something out.Actually, there is a great influx of talented second basemen in the MLB right now, with the likes of Cano, Fontenot, Phillips, Roberts, Hill, Kinsler, Utley, and Pedroia (who's tremendously overrated but still good).

One team sticks out.

St. Louis Cardinals - This season, the Cards decided to conduct a little experiment when they moved outfielder Skip Schumaker to second base. So far this season he's been worth -8.8 RAR with the glove. Ellis would represent a huge improvement over Schumaker, and with few middle infield prospects on the farm, his cheap, three-year contract would be a perfect fit for the Cards.

Colby Rasmus - Out of the question.

Brett Wallace - I doubt even a Wallace/Ellis swap would work out, but if we threw in an extra piece or two, then MAYBE a deal could be worked out. They need a lot of bullpen help, and really, so do we. But if we're out of the race, somebody like Wuertz or Springer would definitely help them in a playoff run. Ellis plus a good reliever for Wallace. Is that enough? I still have my doubts.

Daryl Jones - The 22 year old outfielder has tools and has finally started to put them together over the last couple of years. The Cardinals have a crowded outfield right now, with Ankiel, Rasmus, Duncan, Ludwick, and Schumaker (if they get a real second baseman).

David Freese (3B) and Allen Craig (3B) - Neither project to be studs, but both could be solid major leaguers. Freese has power and a glove, while Craig is an overall better hitting prospect. While the A's have nearly nothing at 3B, either would definitely help an A's organizational weakspot.

Other than that, the Cardinals best prospects are mostly relief pitchers, which I doubt they'll want to give up due to the fact that it's their big weakness at the MLB level. They also have Brian Barden, who looks to be an average major league third baseman.

The Marlins also represent another option, as Dan Uggla has been pretty bad this year, including defensively, but did anybody really expect good glovework? He needs to be moved to 1B, but I think the Marlins giving up young talent to get Ellis is unlikely, but in a competitive NL East, it could definitely happen.

I think a deal for Daryl Jones and Freese/Craig would be a good deal for both teams. Anybody got any other ideas?

Bailey is awesome - Article about pitching stats at BtB

NateHST — Wed, 13 May 2009 20:17:20 -0000

Bailey is awesome - Article about pitching stats at BtB

Couple of interesting facts about A's pitchers: Dana Eveland is actually in a group of pitchers that includes Halladay, King Felix and Cliff Lee; the stat is for the rate of pitches thrown in a specific zone, which is surprising because Eveland kinda sucks at throwing strikes.

Also, it's kind of clear that Bailey and Jon Broxton (LAD) are pretty much the two best relievers right now. Apparently, for every 100 pitches that Bailey throws, he allows 3.7 runs LESS than the average pitcher (around 6.5). In other words, Bailey is awesome.