AAA

Kyle Gibson: 6 IP | 6 H | 3 R | 3 ER | 1 BB | 6 K | 1 HR | 8:3 GO:FO

Charlie Furbush: 8 IP | 1 H | 1 R | 1 ER | 2 BB | 8 K | 5:6 GO:FO

Alex Torres: 6 IP | 4 H | 0 R | 0 ER | 2 BB | 8 K | 4:3 GO:FO

Adam Warren: 4 IP | 7 H | 4 R | 2 ER | 4 BB | 2 K | 7:1 GO:FO

Andrew Miller: 3.1 IP | 1 H | 2 R | 1 ER | 4 BB | 3 K | 6:2 GO:FO

Guillermo Moscoso: In Progress

 

AA

Cody Scarpetta: 6 IP | 3 H | 3 R | 1 ER | 2 BB | 7 K | 1 HR | 5:2 GO:FO

Wynn Pelzer: 5 IP | 10 H | 8 R | 8 ER | 3 BB | 3 K | 2 HR | 6:2 GO:FO

Eric Surkamp: 6.1 IP | 2 H | 0 R | 0 ER | 3 BB | 10 K | 5:3 GO:FO

Shane Dyer: 6 IP | 5 H | 0 R | 0 ER | 1 BB | 2 K | 10:1 GO:FO

Brad Holt: 4 IP | 2 H | 0 R | 0 ER | 5 BB | 4 K | 4:1 GO:FO

Zach Stewart: 5 IP | 10 H | 5 R | 5 ER | 2 BB | 2 K | 1 HR | 6:5 GO:FO

Joe Gardner: 4.1 IP | 2 H | 1 R | 1 ER | 4 BB | 4 K | 5:2 GO:FO

Deolis Guerra: 1.2 IP | 8 H | 10 R | 10 ER | 3 BB | 0 K | 3 HR | 1:1 GO:FO

Wade Miley: 6 IP | 9 H | 8 R | 8 ER | 2 BB | 2 K | 1 HR | 11:3 GO:FO

Juan Nicasio: 7 IP | 7 H | 2 R | 2 ER | 2 BB | 7 K | 5:4 GO:FO

 

A+

Asher Wojciechowski: 5 IP | 6 H | 4 R | 4 ER | 2 BB | 3 K | 1 HR | 8:2 GO:FO

Julio Rodriguez: 7 IP | 3 H | 0 R | 0 ER | 1 BB | 6 K | 6:5 GO:FO

Barrett Loux: 6 IP | 7 H | 3 R | 3 ER | 0 BB | 7 K | 4:5 GO:FO

Drake Britton: 6 IP | 2 H | 1 R | 1 ER | 0 BB | 2 K | 1 HR | 9:3 GO:FO

Matt Montgomery: 6 IP | 7 H | 2 R | 2 ER | 0 BB | 5 K | 5:3 GO:FO

Tim Melville: 6 IP | 6 H | 3 R | 3 ER | 2 BB | 7 K | 1 HR | 4:5 GO:FO

Brett Marshall: 6 IP | 2 H | 1 R | 1 ER | 2 BB | 3 K | 7:6 GO:FO

Drew Pomeranz: 5 IP | 3 H | 0 R | 0 ER | 3 BB | 8 K | 4:2 GO:FO

Ethan Martin: In Progress

 

A

B.J. Hermsen: 6 IP | 10 H | 5 R | 4 ER | 1 BB | 5 K | 1 HR | 4:5 GO:FO

Zach Dodson: 5 IP | 5 H | 0 R | 0 ER | 1 BB | 5 K | 3:3 GO:FO

Brandon Workman: 5 IP | 5 H | 2 R | 2 ER | 1 BB | 3 K | 3:2 GO:FO

Jacob Petricka: 6 IP | 5 H | 2 R | 1 ER | 2 BB | 9 K | 6:1 GO:FO

Braulio Lara: 5.2 IP | 2 H | 3 R | 1 ER | 3 BB | 5 K | 7:5 GO:FO

Tanner Bushue: 6 IP | 5 H | 2 R | 2 ER | 2 BB | 4 K | 1 HR | 4:6 GO:FO

A.J. Cole: 3.2 IP | 5 H | 2 R | 2 ER | 2 BB | 3 K | 1 HR | 4:4 GO:FO

Albert Campos: 5.2 IP | 10 H | 4 R | 4 ER | 1 BB | 6 K | 2:6 GO:FO

 

 

Sorry if I missed anyone, obviously feel free to add anyone and discuss, I just felt that even late in the day one of these should go up. 

Note: THIS IS REALLY LONG.  I'm sorry guys, I was fairly wordy in my explanations, and most of it is commonly known information.  Hopefully it proves interesting, particularly with some of the lower guys.  I'm always open to questions or suggestions, and I'd just like the point out that I can't see these guys in person, so these conclusions are drawn from whatever reports are readily available.  Lots of information from raysprospects.com, great site that anyone interested in the Rays system should check out (not my site, not even sure if I'm allowed to do this, but felt they deserved a psuedo-citation).  With that out of the way.. .

1)      Jeremy Hellickson - A

a.       Great results at every level.  Because of his fly ball tendencies he might always have a bit of home run trouble, but the stuff is real (although not extraordinary by top 5 overall prospect standards) and the control and command are excellent.   Not much else to say here, Hellickson probably will be my #2 overall.

2)      Desmond Jennings – A-

a.       Some think he will develop power as he goes along, but I really don’t see it.  This year probably isn’t fair indication of his future power potential due to a nagging wrist injury, but I feel the hopes power would come are starting to fade with each passing season.  Regardless, he has a great approach at the plate, is blazing fast, and will play plus to plus-plus defense no matter where he is in the outfield.

3)      Matt Moore – B+

a.       Ok, even at midseason I wasn’t on the bandwagon, but wow did he put up a really great second half.  His stuff is just filthy, and while I don’t think his command and control issues are anywhere near leaving him, the immense improvement he made after a rough half-season in Charlotte are praiseworthy.  Seeing how he deals with more patient AA hitters will be the next big step.  I’m not ready to give him an A-grade, but he is in the 2nd tier of pitching prospects for me now.

4)      Jake McGee – B+/B

a.       I feel bad giving him such a high rank, not because he doesn’t deserve it, because the stuff has seemingly all returned from his pre-Tommy John days, and his impressive three pitch mix gives him a lot to work with as a starter.  That being said, there may be a notion within the organization that he doesn’t have more left to prove, and that keeping him as a mid-rotation starter in Durham might only stagnate his development, prompting a move to the bullpen.  While I don’t want to see it, and I don’t think it should happen, a move to the bullpen kills his value (not completely, he’d make an excellent reliever, but 1/3rd of the innings-load can be damning).  Injury concerns and future role preclude higher grade, although he wouldn’t rank quite in the same class as Moore anyway.

5)      Nick Barnese - B

a.       I really really love Nick Barnese.  He started the season very well, and even though he slowed later on, I feel he is one of those pitchers with good projectibility who still shows plus polish.  His fastball velocity isn’t overly impressive (low 90s) but has truly plus late movement.  He throws good secondary pitches that are developing fairly well, but he doesn’t command them as well as the fastball.  His slurve breaks hard and is an above average pitch, but he needs more consistency.  Shows great feel for the changeup, and while it’s still a little raw, it flashes plus potential.  His good three pitch mix and his ability to locate his running fastball everywhere make him rather polished with more room to fill out.  Could have three plus pitches if everything pans out perfectly, although a plus pitch with two above average offerings is more likely long-term.

Continue reading this post »

Its pretty late, I know its signing day, but it'd be nice to have one up.

 

AAA: Fabio Castro / Andrew Carpenter / Jhoulys Chacin / Jeff Samardizja

AA: Andrew Miller / David Newmann / Rubby de la Rosa / Trevor Reckling / Greg Reynolds

A+: Graham Stoneburner

A: Max Russel vs. Jake Odorizzi / Yoervis Medina vs. Edgar Ibarra / Jerry Sullivan vs. Andrew Hutchinson / Shelby Miller vs. Elisaul Pimentel / Mike Belfiore / Willie Kempf / Manuel Rivera / Andre Rienzo vs. Collin McHugh / Justin Collop / Phillip Erwin vs. Tanner Bushue

SS: Chad Bettis / Adys Portillo

 

Good day for single A, really bad everywhere else.  I didn't know Chacin was sent down?  Anyone know if that is mistake (there were a few on the TBAs on MinorLeagueSplits)?  Guess its a good thing there is bigger news today.

Its already past 6, so I want to get one up.  Here are the probables:

 

AAA: Rich Hill / Chris Tillman / Jose Ortegano / David Bromberg / Jordan Zimmerman / Cory Luebke / Lance Lynn / Shawn Hill / Michael Pineda vs. Jordan Lyles ?? (still TBA)

AA: Hector Noesi / Corey Kluber / Rudy Owens / Elih Villanueva / Alex Cobb vs. Randall Delgado / Chris Archer vs. Chris Withrow / Erik Davis

A+: Ethan Martin / Anthony Davis vs. Michael Cleto / Parker Frazier / Charlie Brewer vs. Robbie Ross / Graham Stoneburner / Cody Scarpetta / Brad Hand / James Hooker / Kyle Allen vs. Kirby Yates

A: Erasmo Ramirez vs. Tom Stuifbergen / Giovany Soto / Justin Smith / Diogenes Rosario  / Drake Britton / Brett Marshall vs. Chadwick Bell / Chad James / Zach Grimmett /  Luis Cruz

SS: Edland Seco vs. Cameron Greathouse / Jesse Hernandez / Matt Lolis / Madison Younginer / Zach Von Rosenberg / Chad Jenkins

RK: Enny Romero / Vincent Vasqeuz vs. Logan Darnell / Gregory Billo

 

Don't know anything about the rookie league guys, but they are putting up nice numbers in SSS, and no names were of direct interest.  Good day in SS ball with Lolis / Younginer / Rosenberg / Jenkins all going.  Interesting guys througout and a good day for AAA.  Shawn Hill has really put up some good numbers for Toronto, maybe he can be of use to them soon as a GB reliever?

Here are the probables -

 

AAA: Zach McAllister / Todd Redmond / Alejandro Sanabia / Guillermo Moscoso vs. Chaz Roe / Jay Jackson / Edgar Osuna

AA: Tom Milone / Antony Shawler / Andrew Brackman vs. Anthony Watson / Rudy de la Rosa / Andrew Miller / David Newmann / Wily Peralta / Jeff Lyman

A+: Wilfredo Boscan / Ethan Hollingsworth vs. Pat Corbin / Juan Oramas / Nick Barnese / Shane Dyer / Phillippe Aumont / Brad Hand / Alberto Cabrera

A: Max Russell / Shelby Miller

SS: Adys Portillo / Chad Bettis

RK: Mike Folynewicz

 

Thats all I have, so if I missed anyone feel free to post it.  Looks to be a good day, lots of guys, although not many top level guys.

Late afternoon so lets get one of these up.  Here are the probables, feel free to add anyone that I miss.  Lots of TBAs still up on the board.

 

AAA: Mike Minor / Brad Lincoln / Chaz Roe / Tyson Ross / Jay Jackson / Guillermo Moscoso

AA: Jeff Locke / Andrew Miller / Trevor Reckling / Martin Perez

A: Shelby Miller / Jonathan Joseph

RK: Mike Folynewicz

Most of the TBAs are still for single A, not sure who is in line to go, but I remember doing a GDT with a few of these guys on it, so I probably could look back and guess at some of the teams.  Overall not that interesting although Minor / Perez / Miller give some start power along with some guys like Reckling - Roe - Moscoso that have struggled and could rebound.  Like always, should be fun.

AAA: Adam Mills / Chris Tillman / Sam LeClure / David Bromberg / Jason Hirsh vs. Matt Chico / Lauren Gagnier vs. Scott Diamond / Michael Kirkman / Blaine Hardy

AA: Alex White vs. Justin Wilson / Stephen Fife / Kyle Gibson / Brad Peacock / Zach Stewart / Drew Naylor / Dallas Keuchel

A+: Joe Weiland / Dae Uhn Rhee / James Hooker / Scott Richmond vs. Shane Dyer / Kyle Heckathorn / Kyle Allen

A: Tyler Sample vs. Edgar Ibarra / Daniel Straily / Robbie Erlin / Chad James / Kendal Volz

SS: Chad Bettis

RK: Mike Foltynewicz

 

Considering how many fringy guys I put (there sure are alot of them today), I'm sure I missed fringier guys at the lower levels, so add them if you want.  A few big names like Gibson and White, but alot of B- to C guys that at least have a name.  Erlin / Weiland on the way up with guys like Allen on the way down.  Should be an interesting day, if nothing else.

Its the late afternoon so time for today's daily thread.  Here are the probables, post if I miss anyone.

 

AAA: Rick Vanden Hurk / Nick Blackburn / Andrew Oliver vs. Brandon Beachy / John Ely / Esmil Rodgers / Derek Holland / Michel Pineda

AA: Julio Teheran / Danny Duffy / Simon Castro

A+: Matt Moore / Bradley Holt / Dellin Betances

A: Jake Odorizzi / Matt Lolis vs. Carl Webster

SS: Trevor May

 

Looks like a good day for sure with a glut of top pitching prospects like Pineda / Teheran / Castro / Moore.  Duffy's first start back in AA, should be a fun day.

Ok, its 4 eastern so I wanted to get one of these up.

Probable Starters:

AAA: Jeff Samardizja / Marc Rzepczynski / Kevin Mulvey

AA: Jeff Locke / Andrew Brackman / Jordan Zimmerman / Chris Withrow / Alex Cobb / Chris Archer / Jordan Lyles / Christian Friedrich

A: Garret Richards / Tim Alderson vs. Kenneth McNutt / Chad Jenkins vs. Joseph Cruz / Brad Hand / Brandon Moore / Eric Arnett / Giovanny Soto / Matt Hobgood vs. Tanner Bushue / Chris Balcom-Miller

Post if I missed anyone.  No real stars going today, but a lot of guys overall.  Should be fun.

Wanted to get one up.  Here are the probable starters, post if I missed a guy or got one wrong.

Carlos Carrasco

Andrew Brackman

Carlos Pimentel

Kenneth McNutt

Joseph Cruz

Brad Hand vs. Henderson Alvarez

Tanner Bushue

Mike Foltynewicz

This is kind of a pathetic day, lot of TBA, but still.  Some former major league pitchers going in Ian Snell, J.A. Happ, and Andrew Miller and some other low prospects like David Newmann, Lance Lynn, and Nathan Addock are going.

Note: This includes 2010 draftees (made the assumption the top 3 picks sign).  Was setting out to try and do a Top 100 (prospects beyond the top 50 get too little press in the mid-season when all these top 50s come up), but after my honorable mentions (who are in order of how I'd have them) I really didn't know where to go.  I went and regraded most guys (still making my way through guys who were C+ coming into the year) and some of the guys I'd have in the 60-80 range just don't make sense to me.  It might be because its different from most things I've seen, but, regardless, I decided to hold off.  Anyway, hope you enjoy, and please ask questions and start discussions.

 

1) Bryce Harper – C/RF – Washington Nationals – A

2) Mike Moustakas – 3B – Kansas City Royals – A

3) Jeremy Hellickson – SP – Tampa Bay Rays – A

4) Domonic Brown – RF – Philadelphia Phillies – A/A-

5) Desmond Jennings – CF – Tampa Bay Rays – A-

6) Mike Trout – CF – Los Angeles Angels – A-

7) Julio Teheran – SP – Atlanta Braves – A-

8) Jesus Montero – C/1B/DH – New York Yankees – A-

9) Dustin Ackley – 2B/OF/1B – Seattle Marines – A-/B+

10) Mike Montgomery – SP – Kansas City Royals – A-/B+

11) Dan Hudson – SP – Chicago White Sox – B+/A-

12) Jameson Taillon – SP – Pittsburgh Pirates – B+/A-

13) Randall Delgado – SP – Atlanta Braves – B+

14) Wil Myers – C – Kansas City Royals – B+

15) Martin Perez – SP – Texas Rangers – B+

16) Brett Jackson – CF – Chicago Cubs – B+

17) Tyler Matzek – SP – Colorado Rockies – B+

18) Christian Friedrich – SP – Colorado Rockies – B+

19) Simon Castro – SP – San Diego Padres – B+

20) Michael Pineda – SP – Seattle Mariners – B+

21) Jacob Turner – SP – Detroit Tigers – B+

22) Aroldis Chapman – SP – Cincinnati Reds – B+

23) Zach Britton – SP – Baltimore Orioles – B+

24) Logan Morrison – 1B – Florida Marlins – B+

25) John Lamb – SP – Kansas City Royals – B+

26) Shelby Miller – SP – St. Louis Cardinals – B+

27) Aaron Hicks – RF – Minnesota Twins – B+

28) Kyle Gibson – SP – Minnesota Twins – B+

29) Mike Minor – SP – Atlanta Braves – B+

30) Lonnie Chisenhall – 3B – Cleveland Indians – B+

31) Chris Carter – 1B/COF/DH – Oakland Athletics – B+

32) Wilmer Flores – 3B/SS/RF – New York Mets – B+

33) Jordan Lyles – SP – Houston Astros – B+

34) Nick Barnese – SP – Tampa Bay Rays – B+

35) Nick Franklin – SS – Seattle Mariners – B/B+

36) Ryan Kalish – OF – Boston Red Sox – B/B+

37) Matt Moore – SP – Tampa Bay Rays – B/B+

38) Manny Machado – SS – Baltimore Orioles – B/B+

39) Casey Kelly – SP – Boston Red Sox – B/B+

40) Eric Hosmer – 1B – Kansas City Royals – B

41) Hank Conger – C – Los Angeles Angels – B

42) Jake Odorizzi – SP – Milwaukee Brewers – B

43) Jared Cosart – SP – Philadelphia Phillies – B

44) J.P. Arencibia – C – Toronto Blue Jays – B

45) Garrett Richards – SP – Los Angeles Angels – B

46) Grant Green – SS – Oakland Athletics – B

47) Arodys Vizcaino – SP – Atlanta Braves – B

48) Brett Lawrie – 2B – Milwaukee Brewers – B

49) Chris Sale – SP/RP – Chicago White Sox – B

50) Alex White – SP – Cleveland Indians – B

 

Honorable Mentions: Chris Dwyer / Matt Dominguez / Tony Sanchez / Derek Norris / Alex Colome / Freddie Freeman / Austin Romine

Here are today's probables, please list anyone that I miss.  Decent day, but no major match ups which is a shame.

Esmil Rodgers

Michael Pineda

Zach Stewart

Kyle Gibson

Chris Withrow

Alex Torres

Christian Friedrich

Simon Castro

Chris Dwyer

Ethan Martin

Kyle Heckathorn

Robinson Lopez

Matt Hobgood

 

Some interesting A ball guys like Tim Alderson, Kyle Allen, Dae-Uhn Rhee, Kendal Volz, and Erik Surkamp going.

filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler

1) Jeremy Hellickson - A/A- (Dominant again. Upside questions, durability questions, and home run tendencies linger, but he has just kept improving, has a polished repertoire, and top of the line control).

2) Desmond Jennings - A- (Injury questions, but the skillset is still there. He might not hit for much power, but he plays great defense, runs the bases very very well, should hit for at least an above average batting average, and has good plate discipline. Slow Start and injuries bump him from an A to an A- for me).

3) Nick Barnese - B+ (Hot start, but I've always liked him more than most anyway. Two years ago I had him neck and neck with Moore, and had him at the back end of my top 100 coming into the year. The hot start this year vaults him into this range for me.)

4) Tim Beckham - B (Hitting better, spike in walk rate is the most telling thing which hints at a change of approach. My confidence in the bat has been restored, and reports of weight loss at the start of the season bode well for defense. I think he'll stick, given the system's weakness in terms of depth at the position, but whether he plays it well enough is still to be seen).

5) Matt Moore - B (Horrible start, but the same type of player is still here. High high Ks, high BBs, hasn't changed too much in my mind, but gets docked for the poor start.)

6) Josh Sale - B (He has some serious power, should hit for a good average, and shouldn't have too much trouble controlling the strike zone. A lack of pro experience and huge defensive questions preclude a higher grade.)

7) Alex Torres - B (Strikeouts? Check. Groundballs? Check. Control Problems? Check. But getting better in that regard. He has done enough to limit the control problems of old that I feel confident in him. A lot of good things going on here, and improvement after a heavy workload of 165 IP last year are all encouraging.)

8) Alex Colome - B (Despite being international, he isn't that young, and his greatest skill last year (preventing home runs) has taken a predictable turn for the worse as he already has given up 8 (in 70 innings). Strikeout rate has also taken a hit, but the walk rate has improved. I've never seen him as a shiny prospect, and I think this is more in line with what he should produce going forward. Impressive stuff still can't be ignored.)

9) Wilking Rodriguez - B/B- (Good fastball and good control. Pitching in Bowling Green has answered a few of my questions. Secondary stuff still needs to developed, but this type of polish from a young international is good to see.)

10) Alex Cobb - B- (Injuries a concern, especially with the small frame, but ground balls, strikeouts, and polish are all here. I really like him, its just the lack of overpowering stuff along with injury concern that holds him from a higher grade.)

11) Justin O'Conner - B- (If he sticks at catcher I will be very pleased, because I am unsure of his future destination in the infield. He is playing SS secondarily right now, but its too much of a question mark to be happy with. To a degree, not having a clear destination hurts him, but because he has so many fall back options (Catching, MI, CI, CF, pitching) its hard to see him not sticking somewhere. The tools are there, and the Rays should be able to develop him).

12) Hector Guevara - C+ (Could be a B-, but I'm just not that adventurous. Regardless, I love this kid, and while he may have to move off of SS, he is there right now. Power is legitimate, and even though he is the same age as a high schooler, he already has some (very successful) summer league experience. Higher level pro experience makes me have to put him here though).

13) Joseph Cruz - C+ (Poor overall results on the year mostly come from a bad April. Hasn't been spectacular this year, but hasn't been bad. Good solid prospect who is advancing well. Should remain as a starter as well.)

14) Jesse Hahn - C+ (Could be higher if it weren't for injury concerns. He has four pitches that could be major league average or better. Has a 'pitcher's body', and could move quickly in a start role. If injury concerns weren't here then he would be in my top 10, but he wouldn't have fallen... so....)

15) Luke Bailey - C+ (Need to see how he comes back from TJ surgery, but if he can stick at catcher, the tools are there to really make him shoot up prospect lists. Huge questions though, and still has yet to play.)

16) Matt Sweeney - C+ (I'm really not a fan, but the power is there. Needs to develop some plate discipline, and if he moves off 3B, as is almost certainly going to happen, I just can't see him being that valuable.

17) Todd Glaesmann - C+ (All around toolsy, but an injury risk. Weakest tool is his power, but his 6'4", 220lb frame shows he might be able to build on it. Ryan Sweeney type in the making?)

18) Drew Vettleson - C+ (2010 1st supplemental round pick. All the makings of a very good defensive right fielder with good discipline and workable power.)

19) Derek Dietrich - C+ (2010 2nd round pick. Has the tools to be a decent defensive third baseman who works the count.)

20) Jake McGee - C+ (pitching well this year after coming back from TJ last year. Should be in a major league bullpen by next year).

21) Jeff Malm - C/C+ (Polished first baseman drafted in 2009 who may not have enough power to justify his defensive limitation. How much upside is there really here?)

22) Aneury Rodriguez - C/C+ (Fly ball tendencies are a negative, but decent stuff. Nothing really stands out, but mediocre results hold him back. Major league reliever?)

23) Kyeong Kang - C/C+ (Had an opportunity to vault himself into top 100 consideration with another solid year, but to this point he has been dissapointing. All around skills are there, but results have to come if he is going to be taken seriously.)

23) Jake Thompson - C/C+ (2010 2nd round pick. Should move quick as a reliever)

24) Ian Kendall - C (2010 5th round pick. High upside pitcher from Washington with a plus fastball and good curveball. needs to develop a better changeup, but is generally considered to have good makeup.)

25) Jason McEachern - C (Frustrating because he had done so well last year. Small body, lack of overpowering stuff are concerns, but the control should come back, if it doesn't he may be sunk.)

26) Kyle Lobstein - C (Needs to prove his good results last year weren't just him beating up on weak competition. I have faith, but lack of stuff and recent results bump him down to a C.)

27) Darin Downs - C (Old due to missed time as a result of a head injury caused by a line drive, but after a good season as a starter last year, and his continued success this year, he seems like he could make a very good middle relief piece. He is polished and far along.)

28) David Newmann - C (Still getting groundballs, but control taken a step in a direction he really couldn't have it going this year.)

29) Reid Fronk - C (Had a very good 2008, had a very bad 2009, is having a very good 2010. Plate discipline has never been questioned and has a good combination of power and speed. Has the makings of an above average defensive corner outfielder. Age relative to league holds him back alot, though.)

30) Austin Wood - C (2010 4th round pick, some would have him after 7th rounder Lorenzen, but I like the combination of plus fastball and slider. Has a changeup that isn't terrible, so I would try him out at starter, but should take to relief well if that is his final location.)

Clearly lots of guys that could slot in anywhere in the 10-30 range, but I think this is a good representation of the system's talent. I personally like Merrill Kelly, Tyler Bortnick, and a slew of good relief prospects like Scott Shuman, Matt Gorgen, Zach Quate, etc. that could have gone here.

1) Jeremy Hellickson - A/A- (Dominant again.  Upside questions, durability questions, and home run tendencies linger, but he has just kept improving, has a polished repertoire, and top of the line control).

2) Desmond Jennings - A- (Injury questions, but the skillset is still there.  He might not hit for much power, but he plays great defense, runs the bases very very well, should hit for at least an above average batting average, and has good plate discipline.  Slow Start and injuries bump him from an A to an A- for me).

3) Nick Barnese - B+ (Hot start, but I've always liked him more than most anyway.  Two years ago I had him neck and neck with Moore, and had him at the back end of my top 100 coming into the year.  The hot start this year vaults him into this range for me.)

4) Tim Beckham - B (Hitting better, spike in walk rate is the most telling thing which hints at a change of approach.  My confidence in the bat has been restored, and reports of wait loss at the start of the season bode well for defense.  I think he'll stick, given the system's weakness in terms of depth at the position, but whether he plays it well enough is still to be seen).

5) Matt Moore - B (Horrible start, but the same type of player is still here.  High high Ks, high BBs, hasn't changed too much in my mind, but gets docked for the poor start.)

6) Josh Sale - B (He has some serious power, should hit for a good average, and shouldn't have too much trouble controlling the strike zone.  A lack of pro experience and huge defensive questions preclude a higher grade.)

7) Alex Torres - B (Strikeouts? Check.  Groundballs?  Check. Control Problems?  Check.  But getting better in that regard.  He has done enough to limit the control problems of old that I feel confident in him.  A lot of good things going on here, and improvement after a heavy workload of 165 IP last year are all encouraging.)

8) Alex Colome - B (Despite being international, he isn't that young, and his greatest skill last year (preventing home runs) has taken a predictable turn for the worse as he already has given up 8 (in 70 innings).  Strikeout rate has also taken a hit, but the walk rate has improved.  I've never seen him as a shiny prospect, and I think this is more in line with what he should produce going forward.  Impressive stuff still can't be ignored.)

9) Wilking Rodriguez - B/B- (Good fastball and good control.  Pitching in Bowling Green has answered a few of my questions.  Secondary stuff still needs to developed, but this type of polish from a young international is good to see.)

10) Alex Cobb - B- (Injuries a concern, especially with the small frame, but ground balls, strikeouts, and polish are all here.  I really like him, its just the lack of overpowering stuff along with injury concern that holds him from a higher grade.)

11) Justin O'Conner - B- (If he sticks at catcher I will be very pleased, because I am unsure of his future destination in the infield.  He is playing SS secondarily right now, but its too much of a question mark to be happy with.  To a degree, not having a clear destination hurts him, but because he has so many fall back options (Catching, MI, CI, CF, pitching) its hard to see him not sticking somewhere.  The tools are there, and the Rays should be able to develop him).

12) Hector Guevara - C+ (Could be a B-, but I'm just not that adventurous.  Regardless, I love this kid, and while he may have to move off of SS, he is there right now.  Power is legitimate, and even though he is the same age as a high schooler, he already has some (very successful) summer league experience.  Higher level pro experience makes me have to put him here though).

13) Joseph Cruz - C+ (Poor overall results on the year mostly come from a bad April.  Hasn't been spectacular this year, but hasn't been bad.  Good solid prospect who is advancing well.  Should remain as a starter as well.)

14) Jesse Hahn - C+ (Could be higher if it weren't for injury concerns.  He has four pitches that could be major league average or better.  Has a 'pitcher's body', and could move quickly in a start role.  If injury concerns weren't here then he would be in my top 10, but he wouldn't have fallen... so....)

15) Luke Bailey - C+ (Need to see how he comes back from TJ surgery, but if he can stick at catcher, the tools are there to really make him shoot up prospect lists.  Huge questions though, and still has yet to play.)

16) Matt Sweeney - C+ (I'm really not a fan, but the power is there.  Needs to develop some plate discipline, and if he moves off 3B, as is almost certainly going to happen, I just can't see him being that valuable.

17) Todd Glaesmann - C+ (All around toolsy, but an injury risk.  Weakest tool is his power, but his 6'4", 220lb frame shows he might be able to build on it.  Ryan Sweeney type in the making?)

18) Drew Vettleson - C+ (2010 1st supplemental round pick.  All the makings of a very good defensive right fielder with good discipline and workable power.)

19) Derek Dietrich - C+ (2010 2nd round pick.  Has the tools to be a decent defensive third baseman who works the count.)

20) Jake McGee - C+ (pitching well this year after coming back from TJ last year.  Should be in a major league bullpen by next year).

21) Jeff Malm - C/C+ (Polished first baseman drafted in 2009 who may not have enough power to justify his defensive limitation.  How much upside is there really here?)

22) Aneury Rodriguez - C/C+ (Fly ball tendencies are a negative, but decent stuff.  Nothing really stands out, but mediocre results hold him back.  Major league reliever?)

23) Kyeong Kang - C/C+ (Had an opportunity to vault himself into top 100 consideration with another solid year, but to this point he has been dissapointing.  All around skills are there, but results have to come if he is going to be taken seriously.)

23) Jake Thompson - C/C+ (2010 2nd round pick.  Should move quick as a reliever)

24) Ian Kendall - C (2010 5th round pick. High upside pitcher from Washington with a plus fastball and good curveball. needs to develop a better changeup, but is generally considered to have good makeup.)

25) Jason McEachern - C (Frustrating because he had done so well last year.  Small body, lack of overpowering stuff are concerns, but the control should come back, if it doesn't he may be sunk.)

26) Kyle Lobstein - C (Needs to prove his good results last year weren't just him beating up on weak competition.  I have faith, but lack of stuff and recent results bump him down to a C.)

27) Darin Downs - C (Old due to missed time as a result of a head injury caused by a line drive, but after a good season as a starter last year, and his continued success this year, he seems like he could make a very good middle relief piece.  He is polished and far along.)

28) David Newmann - C (Still getting groundballs, but control taken a step in a direction he really couldn't have it going this year.)

29) Reid Fronk - C (Had a very good 2008, had a very bad 2009, is having a very good 2010.  Plate discipline has never been questioned and has a good combination of power and speed.  Has the makings of an above average defensive corner outfielder.  Age relative to league holds him back alot, though.)

30) Austin Wood - C (2010 4th round pick, some would have him after 7th rounder Lorenzen, but I like the combination of plus fastball and slider.  Has a changeup that isn't terrible, so I would try him out at starter, but should take to relief well if that is his final location.)

Clearly lots of guys that could slot in anywhere in the 10-30 range, but I think this is a good representation of the system's talent.  I personally like Merrill Kelly, Tyler Bortnick, and a slew of good relief prospects like Scott Shuman, Matt Gorgen, Zach Quate, etc. that could have gone here.

There is only so much you can defend when talking about a player who has played valiantly to his replacement level tagline, but, despite being on a smaller level when compared to players like Burrell, its confused me how the general consensus is that Navi's struggles are so irrecoverable that its time to give up.  While I wouldn't mind seeing a trade (not for overly priced and defensively challenged Victor Martinez, mind you), I don't necessarily think its time to give up on our 25 year old catcher, even for this year.

Continue reading this post »

Same disclaimer as before, there aren't going to be any graphs, I'm just no good at them.  Just some good clean information this time around:

In this segment I'm going to talk about Gabe Kapler:

Many wondered why we signed Gabe Kapler (or many people wonder now, after Zobrist seemingly ingests every performancing enhancing drug in the western hemisphere, why we signed him).  The point is he was brought in to complete a platoon, and contrary to most (if not all people) I think thats how it should stay.  In this piece I'm going to talk about Kapler, as I said, in the next I will talk about Gabe Gross (who sadly started his progression before I got a chance to officially call it), and then I'll talk about Ben Zobrist (who hopefully for the team doesn't start regressing until later).  Enough with the rambling; I'll continue.

Ok, so Kapler's slash line looks like so .197/.275/.311/.587 with a wOBA of .272, and an ISO of .115.  Not to pretty?  Well, there are alot of signs pointing up that people just don't want to seem to acknowledge.

First things first is the BABIP.  It currently stands at an ugly .240 which would be 12th among qualified players (for obvious playing time reasons he doesn't qualify).  Thats a far cry from his .300 career BABIP (even though BABIP isn't so repeatable I felt I'd bring it up).  Given the fact that he isn't so slow hes a hindrance (he is a hindrance because he has mental lapses, however), I would expect that to regress naturally.  In case it wasn't obvious (it wasn't obvious to me until I did the math), if his BABIP was at career levels right now his batting average would be a .300 and his OBP would be a .414 and his slugging would be probably be in the mid-high .300s.  I guess we have some looking forward to do in that department.

The next aspect I want to talk about is flyball rate.  Right now he is hitting fly balls out of the infield at a 53% pace (and a 26% popup rate just adds to the ridiculousness).  Just a note, the majority of these added fly balls are coming (mostly) at the expense of ground balls, which normally would bode well.  Why hasn't it for Gabe yet?  Well, obvious as it may seem, he has hit none of these fly balls out of the ballpark (yet).  For all the years we have batted ball data he has a 5.9 HR/FB% (whenever I say FB I mean outfield fly, just for reference).  Last year with the Brewers it was 11.6%.  This year... as I said before: none.  Quite obviously this is going to change.

I forgot to point out that he wasn't always platooned as he will/has been this year.  I think its safe to go for 6.5% HR/FB rate as our "conservative" baseline for this analysis and last years 11.5% HR/FB rate as our "exceeded expectations".  By the way, about 9% is the league average.  Now, I'm going to run some quick numbers and to all of them I'm going to put a big neon sign saying small sample size, because yes the sample is incredibly small:

Ok, so what I'll do is I'll use his current batted ball rates of 15.7% line drives, 31.4% ground balls, and 52.9% fly balls.  To get a shorthand version of expected BABIP I'll do the old .157 + .120 shtick.  Then regress it down 10 points for the far-sub league average GB rate (more ground balls generally means higher BABIP).  That puts his xBABIP at .267, obviously low, but still passable for what we're going to do here.  Now we'll take 26.7% of his 61 AB to get 16.3 expected non-home run hits.  Just for reference that is already 4 more hits than he has had so far this season.  So far 7/12 or 58.3% of his non-HR hits have been doubles and 0% have been triples, and as we're not trying to predict quite yet, merely evaluate his performace so far, I'm not going to regress that down to normal levels.

Now we factor in the home runs.  We'll do this by taking his strikeouts away from his AB leaving us with 50 batted balls.  At a 53% out field fly rate this has amounted to 27 balls hit into the outfield (I'm sorry I don't know the average distance on these balls).  Now we'l ltake the low end of our projection, 6.5% of these 27 batted balls to give us 1.75 home runs (given that we had 16.3 hits I'll just make it 18 hits with 2 HR), and the high end of our projection gives us 3.1 HR (I'll just say 19.5 hits with 3 home runs). 

This means that to this point he has actually performed somewhere between these two levels ((Also remember that there are 7 doubles factored into each the high)):

Low: .295/.410/.508/.918

High: .320/.434/.582/1.015

Now that is a little unrealistic as the doubles are sure to regress, so I'll do a quick regression on that by using a 25% doubles/hit ratio which is much more in line with his career numbers.  When I do that 4 doubles come up for the low end sample and 4.875 come up for the high (I'll just say 5).  When I redo the numbers they come out as such

Low: .246/.361/.410/.771

High: .287/.402/.516/.918.

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Personally, I like those numbers, and I fully expect them to be achieved from this point forward if he begins to be given an opportuniry, and if that opportunity comes solely against lefties.  I don't think any of us would be dissapointed with even the low end of that projection coming through.

Just a note for those of you who want to get nitpicky; currently Kapler's BB% is at 10.3%, 2% above his career norms, while his K% is 3% above his career norms.  If the K rate were to drop to career norms more batted balls would occur.  The regression of walk rate would probably depress these numbers to look more like .735 OPS on the low end and .850 OPS on the high end, but I don't want people who are going to criticize me for that to blindly forget about the K rate.  I would also like to point out that his K rate has been better against lefties for his career (so that 18% K rate probably has more like 5% to regress than 3%) and the BB rate has fluctuated but is probably about the same against righties as it is against lefties.

 EDIT:

I felt bad not mentioning that the last set of lines is the range I expect him to hit from this point forward on the year.  In truth I probably should've factored in the K% and the BB% and I should have made a caveat saying that this is from this point forward.

SECOND EDIT:

I just re-did the projection a bit to factor in the walk rate.  It takes away 1.5 walks out of the total 68 plate appearances.  5 more batted balls with the current type would mean 2.5 more flyballs, 1 more infield fly, 1 more groundout, and .5 more line drives.  with a .267 BABIP onto those 5 batted balls turns out to 1.3 hits added to both the low and high projections instead of 1.5 walks.  Given that over a large sample size the weights of 1.3 hits should be about equal to 1.5 walks I'm not going to redo the projection.  It might actually be more of a help to Kapler (as those hits might even be worth more than those walks by a slight slight margin) to do the projections, but I wont.

Just wanted to make sure that everyone knows that the OBP is inflated while the BA/SLG is probably a little on the low side.  Overall the OPS should come out around equal regardless.  Sorry for not factoring this in already.

THIRD EDIT:

God damnit I cocked this one up more than I thought.  I just inferred that I'm using a completley insustainable FB rate to predict future performance.  Expect that the FB rate goes down, the GB/LD go up so the BA/OBP rises a bit.  To be more specific if we use a 38% FB rate, a 15% popup rate it should result in a 3-5% jump in LD% to around 17-20%, and a 12-17% jump in groundball rate to around 43-48%.  His BABIP would probably be around .285 in that case so more hits, a few less home runs and an obviously stagnant walk rate.

I'm sorry for fucking up so many times.  I think I finally have it right, although I'm mad for not having the final numbers.  Just use your imagination on tweaking those last numbers, but if I were to take a stab in the dark I'd say something like

LOW: .270/.340/.400/.740

HIGH: .295/.375/.455/.830

 

Just a disclaimer: You aren't going to get any fancy graphs with my posts, I'm just not that skilled.  Yes, I understand it doesn't take much skill.  No, I'm not ignorant to learn, just more incapable and admittedly lazy.  With that being said..

(I'm assuming throughout this entire post that I'm not going to have to defend stats like FIP, and other slightly sabermetric methods of valuing players.)

Maybe its just me and my defiance to believe anything that has happened thus far is real, but why are people allowing simply understood details to slip right under their noses.  I'll start with what I believe is the more obvious of the oversights: Andy Sonnanstine. (Probably going to be the least controversial as well)...

2-4, 7.38 ERA, 40.1 IP, 24 K, 14 BB, 5 HRA

Oh Boy! Thats bad! I knew we should've traded Sonny instead of Jackson, just look at how good he is in Detroit.  Well. not so fast.

Firstly, Sonny's FIP is at 4.72, a touch below league average, but not as horrible as most people want to make out (or as bad as a 7.38 ERA indicates).  That being said, there are issues with a 4.72 FIP, as that makes him Edwin Jackson, and we didn't trade Edwin Jackson to be blessed with another (although we do have the little Niemann problem, but I'm not getting into that now).

While the League Average Strand Rate is closer to the mid 70s than to the mid 60s we're accustomed to with Sonny, he has consistently posted strand rates in the low-mid 60s.  He has performed well, obviously, despite this, but it could be a reason for his tendancy to give up more runs than his FIP/tRA would suggest.  More alarming is a 59% strand rate this year.  This is bound to progress as the lowest strand rates in the league over the past few years have been as follows: Brian Bannister, 64%, 2008 - Jose Contreras, 62.5%, 2007 - Randy Johnson, 61.8% - 2006, etc. etc. (I do notice that it seems to be rising every year, maybe someone should look into that).  Point is, he is due for some progression in this area even if he is bound to finish subpar in this category for a third straight year.

Another thing bound for progression is at .371 which would be 6th among qualifying starters (yes, he has been bad enough to not qualify...).  Even with a disturbing spike in Line Drive Rate to 23.8%, his BABIP shouldn't be much higher than .350 (and I expect the line drive rate falls back around his career average of 18% the rest of the way, which would reduce this even more).  This should progress, his .371 BABIP hasn't been matched over a full season in over a decade and even .350 was only broken twice over the past decade by Glendon Rusch in 2001 and Kevin Milwood last year.  Just for reference, Kevin Milwood's LD% last year was 25.3%, and we don't have batted ball data for 2001, but Glendon Rusch's career LD% was 23.5% and his career BABIP was .334.  Its not great, but a full .40 points of BABIP can and does mean alot (and this implies absolutley no progression to Sonny's past performance).

Lastly is some basic look at Sonny through Pitch F/x where I'm pretty much going to rehash things already said.  First off, his curve has gotten better (most likely as a result of a slightly new release point).  He is throwing more over the top, as his release point is about 1/2 a foot more towards being directly over-the-top as opposed to his more three quarters delivery of old.  Despite the positive effect it has had on the curveball, it has seemed to affect the slider which has lost a bit of the vertical movement it never really had.  The change-up has gained some drop which was to be expected with a more over-the-top delivery, but it lost a few inches horizontally.  Anecdotally, the change in stuff seems foreign to Sonny, as his trademark low BB rates have been abnormally high.  I'll chalk it up to changed pitch usage (his cutter was good in small doses last year, I don't think I'll ever know what has possessed him to start throwing it even more now (up about 20% from last year when he was already using it 30% of the time... ugh.).  That being said, the velocities and breaks themselves seem to be stagnant (if you factor in the better curveball and tthe loss of slider/change-up decency), so despite my negativity I don't see why these pitches aren't going to start working for him.

I understand I could've been a little contradictory at times, as I wanted to throw out both sides of the argument, but don't be confused, Sonny needs to and has deserved to be in this starting rotation.  At this point he is the third best starter in the rotation, and while slight things have changed there aren't any glaring issues as there are with say... I don't know... Scott Kazmir (I like Niemann too much to throw him under the bus).

 

Well, I'm relatively new to the site and I'm not incredibly well-versed with prospects, but I thought I'd give a Top-100 a shot.  I was originally going to have a paragraph write-up with each prospect, but it took me a few hours to get through Bowden and I was fed up with doing it (so much respect to John for being able to release such a detailed book every year, I would never have the patience for it). This is slightly edited from the list I submitted to the Synthesis (Forgot Arencibia as an example).  Without further adieu here it is, and I'm posting it to see what people think so if you see an issue please post about it, discussion is encouraged.

1)      Matt Wieters

2)      David Price

3)      Jason Heyward

4)      Travis Snider

5)      Madison Bumgarner

6)      Cameron Maybin

7)      Dexter Fowler

8)      Tim Alderson

9)      Trevor Cahill

10)  Andrew McCutchen

11)  Rick Porcello

12)  Jhoulys Chacin

13)  Neftali Feliz

14)  Brett Anderson

15)  Mike Moustakas

16)  Matt LaPorta

17)  Colby Rasmus

18)  Pedro Alvarez

19)  Justin Smoak

20)  Brian Matusz

21)  Derek Holland

22)  Tim Beckham

23)  Lars Anderson

24)  Logan Morrison

25)  Thomas Hanson

26)  Mat Gamel

27)  Freddie Freeman

28)  Jarrod Parker

29)  Michael Stanton

30)  Carlos Santana

31)  Eric Hosmer

32)  Gordon Beckham

33)  Brett Wallace

34)  Josh Vitters

35)  Yonder Alonso

36)  Buster Posey

37)  Wade Davis

38)  Brett Cecil

39)  Chris Tillman

40)  Michael Bowden

41)  Alcides Escobar

42)  Jeremy Hellickson

43)  Jordan Schafer

44)  Fernando Martinez

45)  Taylor Teagarden

46)  Jesus Montero

47)  Phillippe Aumont

48)  Elvis Andrus

49)  Jordan Zimmerman

50)  Austin Jackson

51)  Reid Brignac

52)  Ben Revere

53)  Carlos Carrasco

54)  Michael Main

55)  Aaron Cunningham

56)  Carlos Triunfel

57)  Adrian Cardenas

58)  Michael Saunders

59)  Tyler Flowers

60)  Desmond Jennings

61)  Aaron Hicks

62)  Aaron Poreda

63)  Kyle Blanks

64)  Wilmer Flores

65)  Jordan Walden

66)  Greg Halman

67)  Max Ramirez

68)  Angel Villalona

69)  Angel Salome

70)  James McDonald

71)  Matt Dominguez

72)  Jake Arietta

73)  Ivan Dejesus

74)  Todd Frazier

75)  Chris Carter

76)  Neftali Soto

77)  Jason Donald

78)  Michael Burgess

79)  Kila Kaaihue

80)  Chris Coghlan

81)  Daryl Jones

82)  Beau Mills

83) J.P. Arencibia

84)  Jose Tabata

85)  Adam Miller

86)  Ethan Martin

87)  Jeff Niemann

88)  Matt Moore

89)  Nick Weglarz

90)  Michael Taylor

91)  Jemile Weeks

92)  Brad Holt

93)  Vincent Mazzarro

94)  James Simmons

95)  Gorkys Hernandez

96)  Jake McGee

97)  Scott Elbert

98)  Chris Perez

99)  Jonathan Niese

100) Nick Barnese