SB Nation User Blog: Neduol Caz

Phillies Sign Lidge to Three Year Extension

Neduol Caz — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 16:18:26 -0000

The Phillies have agreed to terms with Brad Lidge on a three year extension worth 37.5 million dollars. There is also a club option for 2012, and performance incentives for Lidge sprinkled throughout the deal. The most recent example of a top-notch closer signing is Cordero with the Reds. He got 4 years and 46 million. That is a ton of money, but does seem to be the going rate. I am positive that Rodriquez of the Angels will command an even larger contract in free agency.

M's Fire Bavasi

Neduol Caz — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 01:48:58 -0000

Isn't that big of a deal, however, if we were ever to trade for Bedard, Bavasi would have to be gone and now he is. I really want this to happen.

Now, I am being yelled at because my post is not long enough. So, what else? Hmmm. Who would you guys rather have, Bedard or Sabathia? Would you prefer to trade prospects or a big leaguer like Victorino or Werth? Who are you more surprised hit a triple, Burrell or Howard? I wonder what the odds were that both Howard and Burrell would hit a triple in the same game. Spooky. This has to be long enough now...

Good or Great?

Neduol Caz — Thu, 29 May 2008 13:40:37 -0000

So, I was driving home from the Phillies game yesterday listening to some 610. I got a few chuckles listening to Ike Reese talk at length about nothing, then got some good sports talk from Reuben Frank. Anyway, Frank brought up the subject of whether or not this Phillies team is merely good, or if it is/can be great. I am not sure where I lie. I know the offense is great. I know the bullpen has been great up to this point. And, I know the starting rotation is bad. I don't think that necessarily adds up to be a great team. If the bullpen continues to pitch the way it has (I actually have nightmares about the bullpen coming apart at the seems by the all-star break), and if Myers returns to his career line of a number two starting pitcher, and if the Phillies pick up an additional number two starter, then this is a great team in my opinion. However, that is a lot of ifs. Talk back, post some ideas, this site has become more of a game blog than anything else so I was hoping we could get back to doing some discussion. One last thing to think about. I know it won't happen, but, would you trade Howard for C.C. with a contract? I think I would in a heartbeat.

State of the Phillies

Neduol Caz — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 11:47:04 -0000

I meant to write this after the tenth game of the season, however, couldn't bring myself to do it after the way that met's game ended. So, this is post on the state of the union of your Philadelphia Phillies, after eleven games. This isn’t about me talking as much as it is a community project to get people’s thoughts relative to opening day expectations. I will give my random thoughts on the offense, defense, starting rotation, and bullpen. Hopefully, everybody else will chime in as well. Without further ado, I present the State of the Phillies.

The offense has been a bit, well, offensive in my opinion. Through eleven games, the Phils have put 47 runs on the board, or 4.27 per game. However, in ’07, the Phils only put up 53 runs through eleven games, and we all now how many runs were scored by the end of the season. This season, we have seen a good Rollins before being injured, frustrating Victorino, typical Utley, flailing Howard (but that is usual), smokin’ hot Burrell, nice Jenkins/Werth platoon, horrible but sadly typical Feliz, and a slow start by Ruiz. All in all, I am still confident in the offense. We have several slow starters on the team which is causing our offense to sputter a bit, however, the bats should heat up with the weather. I know I am still confident, and I think many of you agree, that Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Burrell, Jenkins/Werth, and Ruiz constitute the best offense in the NL. The offense is playing the usual LOB game, which in my opinion is the one negative of a lot of strikeouts. But, I don’t see this team cutting down on strikeouts anytime soon, and we all knew that would be an issue at the beginning of the year.

Sadly, and unexpectedly, our defense has been offensive as well. I really did not see this team committing a comedy of errors. Our starting outfield has been solid, Burrell catches what he can, and will hold runners; Victorino has been amazing, and far, far, far better than Rowand ever was; while Jenkins/Werth provide solid if unspectacular defense. This is what I assumed out of the trio, and it is what I have gotten. Sadly, I also assumed Taguchi could catch a ball, while Ruiz, Feliz, Rollins, and Utley could field and throw. This has not been the case. I don’t know why, but this team is committing an unsightly number of errors. Errors from players I felt were quality with the glove. Fortunately, all of the trouble spots in our defense have proven track records defensively, and so, should rebound nicely. I hope so, because if it doesn’t, our pitching will not be what dooms us this season.

Speaking of pitching, I am feeling giddy, especially after I choose to wait until the eleventh game of the season to write this, so that I can talk positively about Myers. Now, our staff as a whole has given up 55 runs in 11 games, or 5 runs per game, or 810 runs over the course of a 162 game season. Not great. But, there is a lot to feel really good about. Hamels is continuing to establish himself among the best in the game. Myers, while concerning (especially the fastball) in his first two starts, put together the complete package in last night’s win. He was much more aggressive with his fastball, plus it had some giddy-up and life. He pitched like the number two starter I envisioned him to be in ST. I am also really happy with both Moyer and Eaton. The concern with Moyer was that he might have finally reached the end of the road in professional baseball, however, he looks like his old self. I never expected great stuff from Moyer and I doubt anybody else did either. In two starts, both Phillies wins mind you, Moyer has a 4.66 ERA. 4.66 isn’t great, but it isn’t bad either, plus Moyer looks like the same pitcher he has been for the past two seasons. I know the concern with his age might not show up until the second half of the season, but what will he lose? Might his fastball drop a tick or two in velocity. Oh no, not that. Even though Hamels is proving to be a stud, Myers looked great last night, and Moyer is his old deceiving self, I am most pleased with Eaton. I grant you, two starts, make a season, do not (or something like that). But, Eaton has looked more like the average pitcher he has been over the course of his career, rather than the train wreck the Philadelphia fans were subjected to last season. Some people might say that it is a telling statement of our staff that I am so thrilled two of our pitchers our league average. Well, what did you expect? Moyer and Eaton were not going to transform into top of the rotation starters, so lets be happy they are pitching to the best of their abilities, even if that isn’t sky high. Finally, we have Byle Bendrick. It is a shame, but I think most of us saw this coming. Luckily, Benson continues to rehab in Florida and our young guns are pitching away in Reading and Lehigh Valley.

I am similarly happy with the bullpen. The results have not been their for Condrey, but the tag team of him with Durbin (very good so far, as long as Charlie remembers he is not a late game reliever) provides the Phils with some nice options for multiple innings of relief duty. Meanwhile, it looks like the Tommy Gun is still loaded with a few bullets, Romero has picked up where he left off the ’07 season (I think that is with runners on first and third with two outs), Seanez is a nice veteran addition that is pitching well, and Lidge has been very effective, even though he has suffered from a terrible STG. Madson is a bit of a worry. I expected better things that what I have seen thus far. Also, he continues to be bothered by injuries. All in all, I like our bullpen. It has been a long time since I felt confident in the Phils when a game is a battle of the ‘pens.

Well, there you have it. Those are my thoughts on the Phils through the first eleven games. The defense has been a disappointment, the pitching has been a pleasant surprise, while the offense is somewhere in between.

Bye Bye Mike...

Neduol Caz — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 12:53:58 -0000

I just got done writing about Pedro Martinez's injury, and now I get to write about Mike Hampton's injury. Anybody surprised? Hampton felt something "pull" during pregame warm ups, warm ups for what would have been his first mlb pitch since 2005. However, reality set in, much like it did for Pedro. Is anybody going to be surprised when El Duque goes down? Smoltz? Delgado? Beltran? Chipper? Also, as a bit of a side note, I feel the Phillies win yesterday was very important. Not just as a game in the win column, but to escape what could have been the demoralizing pressure of a another sweep and "slow start" to begin the season. Well done, Phillies, even if you are playing like amateurs. Finally, one last thought that just popped into my mind; our new closer will miss the first four games of the season. Seems innocent enough. However, who would have thought that the score differential in every game thus far would have been less than or equal to one going into the ninth inning? Crazy. Here is to being .500 after tonight.

Bye Bye Pedro...

Neduol Caz — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 04:27:15 -0000

Pedro popped a hammy in his first start of the season. It almost makes me forget all about opening day.

J.A. Happ, Phils' fifth starter?

Neduol Caz — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 14:57:27 -0000

I was sitting at my desk this morning with my head buried deep in a quantum analysis textbook. Instead of actually working, I spent the majority of my time sulking over the fifth starters spot in the Phillies' rotation; J.D. Durbin, Eaton, Chad Durbin and Blackley simply are not getting the job done. Some fans are backing the youth movement, wanting to see Carrasco, Carpenter or Outman take the job. I think this is a great idea, however, promoting pitchers who are not developmentally ready could damage their long term futures. So, with this in mind, I would like to throw a forgotten name into the ring, J.A. Happ.
I have no faith in "real deal" Durbin. I simply do not think he will ever be an adequate major league pitcher, not even as a 12th man on a staff. Eaton, obviously, is having a world of issues. I admit that earlier in this off season I was supporting Eaton, thinking that his '08 season would closer resemble his career line rather than that atrocity of an '07 season. However, Eaton has suffered multiple injuries and a severe case of ineffectiveness, which has me seriously questioning whether Eaton can ever take a major league mound again without causing suicide rates to spike in the greater Philadelphia area. Durbin, I believe, is Durbin. By that I mean he is a 29 year old pitcher, going into his 9th big league season, with a career ERA of 5.75 and a career whip of 1.566. He is a starter only on last place teams.
Blackley is a slightly different case. Blackley has pitched to a 4.37 ERA in AAA over the past two seasons, both of which have been post-labrum surgery. His SO/BB rate is 1.91. While I believe it is a long shot, I do have hope that Blackley could give the Phils an ERA south of 5 at the back end of our rotation.
This leaves Happ. Happ had a brilliant minor league career before the '07 season. Including his disastrous '07 season, in which he had a 5.02 ERA and 1.52 whip at AAA, Happ's minor league career numbers are as follows: 3.25 ERA, 1.22 whip, .617 HR/9 and 2.5 SO/BB. Also, do not believe that Happ simply beat up on inferior and younger competition in the low minors. In '06, Happ (then 23) posted an ERA of 2.68 and a whip of 1.07 across A+, AA and AAA. Happ will be coming into his age 25 season, and while he certainly did not thrive in AAA last year, he has pitched against the highest level of competition in the minors for a full year. I could understand if the Phils placed Happ back in AAA to continue to refine his pitches and force him to show improvement before promoting him to the bigs. However, I feel '07 was an aberration for Happ and not the Norm. Even though he struggled, Happ has faced and gained experience against AAA batters. This ST, in only 4 IP, he has given up 3 hits and 1 earned run. I know this means little to nothing, seeing as it is the first two weeks of ST games and is such a small sample size, however, if Happ continues to pitch well (I think he will), I feel he is our best option to be the fifth starter. Not only could he hold down the spot until Benson is ready or the Phils desperately trade for another starter, but perhaps he could give league average production with some upside. That sounds a lot better than "real deal", Eaton, Durbin or Blackley.

Possible Free Agent Acquisitions...

Neduol Caz — Sat, 15 Dec 2007 03:21:37 -0000

As Ken Rosenthal has reported, the Phillies are one of two finalists to sign free agent Geoff Jenkins. The other team fighting for his services is the Padres. Those same Padres who have beat out the Phillies for Wolf, Iguchi, and Rusch.
Geoff Jenkins, for much of his career with the Brewers, has been a starting corner outfielder. If he were to sign with the Phillies, his role would most likely be reduced to a platoon partner with Werth in right field. Taking a quick look at both Werth and Jenkins' stats throughout their careers would reveal that the two would combine to produce at a near all-star level. Jenkins, a left-handed batter, has a career line of .288/.358/.525 against right-handed pitchers. Werth has a career line of .284/.378/.486 against left-handed pitchers. Even more impressive, Werth authored a .375/.467/.591 line against lefties in his first and only season as a Phillie. If both played their home games in cozy CBP, a combined .290/.375/.525 could reasonably be had, which would easily be considered all-star level. By comparison, Rowand hit .309/.374/.515 in 2007.
Playing devil's advocate, let's say the Phillies had to go three years at 7 million a year with Jenkins, which would seem very high when compared to all estimates currently floating around the internet. Also, Werth played for $850,000 in 2007 and is arbitration eligible in 2008. Werth will be due a slight raise to a little over one million on `08. Even in this worst case scenario, the Phillies would be receiving all-star caliber production in right field for fewer than 9 million dollars a year. More conservative and reasonable estimates on the length and value of Jenkins' contract would lower the total cost of right field to well below 9 million dollars. All in all, I feel that this is an opportunity the Phillies can ill afford to pass up. In the best case scenario, the platoon will replace or even surpass Rowand's production. Worst case scenario, the Phillies add outfield depth to a group that sorely needs it.
Other names out there that the Phillies have been linked to are Benson, Otsuka, and Prior. All of these pitchers obviously have injury issues. I am not sure if any are worth the risk of signing. Otsuka has been a very productive reliever, but several reports say his forearm injury from '07 still hasn't healed. Prior has great potential, but baseball fans and general managers have been saying that for the past 5 years. Benson has been league average at best, but is it worth sinking valuable resources into an injured player whose ceiling is league average? Like I said, all these pitchers have question marks. I guess it really comes down to what kind of contract these players are going to demand on the open market. Does anyone else have any thoughts on these players?
I hope my first post on this site has intrigued a few of you out there. I would love some feedback. Thanks.