SB Nation User Blog: NeifiChicken

Jackson talks heating up with Cavs, Nuggets, Spurs, Hornets

NeifiChicken — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:37:02 -0000

Jackson talks heating up with Cavs, Nuggets, Spurs, Hornets

Ummm...Ginobili's name was mentioned? I don't understand that at all if I'm SA.

I don't know who the Hornets would give

Why do most people like Stephen Curry so much?

NeifiChicken — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:17:02 -0000

I honestly feel like I wasn't invited to a big party, the love Stephen Curry party, because for the life me I still can't see why people (not just GSW fans) love this guy so much as an NBA player. Can you guys please explain to me why you (if you do) like Curry so much and why you think he will be an above average NBA player? Expanding further, since it seems semi-inevitabel that the Warriors will have to eventually choose between him and Monta, why we should choose Curry?

To me, this is how I see Curry.

-Decent shot. Pretty quick release. It's not Morrow's though. It's not like his shot is that good that it can drive his entire game (a la Michael Redd/Reggie Miller). He does not shoot at a high percentage (never has really) and is that something people really expect to change? To me he's quantity over quality. The Warriors can obviously score in a variety of ways, what dimension does Curry really bring to our offense to allow to score more points per posession?

-Can make some nice passes. He's made a few nice passes in pre-season. He's also been a little TO machine in his brief time both in the NBA and college. There are a lot of guys who can make nice passes, but for it to really be an effective tool, it needs to come with limited turnovers.

-Great makeup. Attitude, charisma, appeal is all there. No complaints on the person.

-Can create his shown well. However, even when doing that he doesn't manage to shoot that efficiently. He doesn't excel at getting to the rack. Like I've said, is there really any use to 20 ppg if it's coming at sub .440 shooting?

-Mediocre finisher. I've seen him have a few nice finishes in college and w/ the W's, but I've also seen him miss some pretty makeable ones. All in all, I don't think this is a part of his game that stands out to anyone. Below NBA average to me.

-Defense is mediocre. I think he's impressed me most in this area in his brief time with the Warriors, but that's probably because I'm so used to poor defense watching Warriors games. It's not like he's shutdown or anything, I just think so far his effort has been good, but that's pretty much the one area most rookies put effort into at first. Whether it sustains itself is another matter.

Basically, when I add all the Curry components together, I just don't really see a very good player, let alone an exceptional one. To me, I think the best case for scenario for Curry is Ben Gordon, and he'll have to put on some serious muscle to match him in size. Even then, is Ben Gordon really that good a player? Yes, when he's hot he can light it up with the best of them, but ultimately player's like Gordon and Curry are really just streaky scorers who really only have value in a bench type role.

I feel guys like Curry are always overrated because of their ability to have the "big game". Guys who chuck the ball as much as he does are prone to eventually have 40+ point games where their shot is just on and he looks unstoppable. The problem is those games only occur once every 10 games and they are usually shooting at a poor percentage for 7 of those other 10 games. It's just so much easier to remember 45 points on 16 of 24 shooting than 18 points on 6 of 20 shooting.

I'm hoping I'm completely wrong about Curry, but he just seems to me like a guy who isn't going to bring much to this team in the future, but will likely always be perceived as better than he is because he can average over 20 ppg. It kills me that some people actually value him over Monta since Monta, for all his flaws is a much better player to me.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Tim Linecum

NeifiChicken — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:49:46 -0000

Strengths and Weaknesses of Tim Linecum

The Lance Berkman part is my favorite

The real one Sabes let get away...

NeifiChicken — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 23:39:33 -0000

I did a search of fanposts and nothing came up so I really, really hope I am not repeating someone else here, but here we go.

Rajai Davis. Yes, Rajai Davis. Have you guys seen what he's been up to across the bay hitting .318/.376/.432 with 40 steals & a WAR of 3.7 in only 380 PA's. To put that in some perspective, on this club that would make him the 2nd best position player and on a per game perspective, out BEST player according to WAR.

Now, clearly there's been some luck on Davis part, that .318 avg is bouyed by a ridiculously high .378 BABIP, which even for a guy with elite speed, is unsustainable. A normalized level for Davis is probably somewhere around .315-.325, so that would clearly take a hit to his offensive value, probably something like .280/.345/.390, which is a lot less impressive but still solid for a guy with his skillset.

Also, so much of his value is tied to his amazing defense, which is absolutely amazing relative to his peers, although I always take run values off defense with a certain grain of salt. Yes, his defense has tremendous value, but whether or not it's been worth exactly 12 runs per 150 games I have less confidence in than his offensive worth. Still, it wouldn't surprise if that figure is in the ballpark.

What WAR leaves out though is baserunning, which Davis also excels at, not only on taking bases on teammate contact, but at stealing bases (40/51 is quite good for a someone who steals at high volume). I think it's fair to estimate the run value of his baserunning allow is close to half a win, if not more.

Bottom line, this guy has been amazing this year (albeit in a lucky career year offensively he is unlikely to repeat) and Sabean pretty much just discarded him after a strong 2007 with us because he was poor in 18, yes 18, at-bats in 2008.

I was pretty displeased at the time (even though a 4 win season was probably the last thing on my mind with Rajai's future) but this one has really come back to bite us, yet I don't see much talk about it. It's not like Bochy would play him anyway, but it was also clear Sabean really never thought much of him since after his strong 2007 stint with SF, Sabean immediately went out and signed Aaron Rowand, who is of similar (if not inferior) value to Davis only at a much steeper price tag and a whole lot of grittiness.

It's stuff like this that I hope Neukom looks out for when deciding Sabean's fate at season's end

Next year's team

NeifiChicken — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 20:30:50 -0000

To me, I think the Padres offense is in pretty good shape and if the front office is smart about things, their offense could really be special next year. We don't know exactly what the payroll will be set at, but it seems like Moorad said it will raise a bit, so conservatively I think we can expect something around 50-55 million. If it all breaks right, this team could take a big leap forward.

After pay raises to Adrian & co. I think our payroll sits right around 30-32 million, essentially leaving about 20 million dollars for additions and arbitration.

It wouldn't surprise me for the Pads to make one minor splash in free agency to kick off Moorad's first off-season. Sure, the splash will be smaller, but there is one guy in particular who could be a nice fit. Mike Cameron. He played well in SD before and liked it, due to age won't be able to command many years. I think if we offered 2 years, 15 million we would probably be able to get it done. I'd also look to sign Matt Murton for OF insurance, who could probably be had slightly over the minimum (COL has no space for him)

Next, I would turn to 2B as the next position to fill. On the FA market, there's soem real depth and someone like an Iwamura would really be a ncie upgrade and come within our price rang. However, the idea that intrigues me most is Dan Uggla of FLA. He's coming off a down year and FLA will certainly look to trade him and move Coghlan back to 2B. One of their big needs is at closer and we have Heath Bell entering arb., who they already tried to trade for at the deadline apparently. I think Bell for Uggla would be accepted by FLA, and I think it would be a good deal. Bell is probably looking at 4-5 mil in arb, and Uggla is looking at 6-7.

Thirdly, I think catcher is a position I'd want more options at. Chris Iannetta will likely be the most attractive trade option out there, but it's unlikley to expect COL to deal him within the division. So, I think a good guy to look at would be JR Towles. Towles had a good minor league track record, but has stunk in each of his chances at the bigs. HOU is probably over him and Ed Wade had a good working relationship with KT. I don't think it would take too much (perhaps Greg Burke and/or Corey Kluber) and would give us a good upside option (worst case beign we just stick with Hundley).

Finally, I think we could use a little more upside in the rotation. This is the most unrealistic option I present, but what about trading the arb eligible Kevin Correia and Kevin Kouzmanoff to MIN for Francisco Liriano. Liriano is about to enter arb himself and is coming off a real down year. The guys got some kinks, but even in this terrible year his expeced ERA was in the mid 4.00's. I think worst case with him, you have a leauge average pitcher in PETCO and best case could be the Liriano of old.

Obviously another hidden bullpen gem (as the Pads always seem to find) would be nice too, but look at this team if these 4, somewhat reasonable, scenarios happened.

SS Everth

CF Cameron

1B Adrian

LF Blanks

3B Headley

2B Uggla

RF Venable/Murton platoon

C Towles/Hundley

Bench

RF/LF Murton

CF Gwynn

UTL Salazaar

2B/SS Eckstein

Rotation

1. CY

2. Liriano

3. Latos

4. Richard

5. Stauffer/LeBlanc/Gallagher

Pen

CL Adams

SU Gregerson

LHR Thatcher

MR Worrell

MR Russell

MR/LR Webb/Perdomo

LR Stauffer/Gallgher

The pitching would still have a ton of question marks, but the upside to this team is pretty undeniable, and for certain that is an above average offense and defense

Zito for Soriano...would you do it?

NeifiChicken — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 21:21:59 -0000

Zito is owed 83 million over 4 years (or 94 million over 5 years) and Soriano is owed 90 million over the next 5 years.

Both contracts are terrible, and if I had asked this question last year I'm sure everyone here would have shouted "obviously, where do I sign?" but this year Soriano has been terrible and Zito has regained some of his old velocity and form.

So if this was a realistic option in the off-season, would you want it?

Obviously there's a whole bunch of logistical factors (both have NTC's, etc.) but at the heart of the issue is the simple question of who do you think would help the Giants more over the next 4-5 years: Alfonso Soriano or Barry Zito?

I'd hands down be in the Soriano camp, but out of pure curiosity I just wanted to see where other people fall on this question

Cain for Fielder....the rumor that will never die

NeifiChicken — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 16:30:33 -0000

Cain for Fielder....the rumor that will never die

Someone was going to post this link eventually. You know it to be true.

Truthfully, a part of me really likes trading Cain in the off-season (blasphemy, I know) but I do think I'd want a better return than Prince Fielder (who is a better player than Cain, but one that will come at a much higher expense). It's not going to happen, but if the Giants did put Cain on the market, the return would be huge at his price, and that's really the only way you can trade him. At an insane return

The Rockies Amazing Bench

NeifiChicken — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 05:22:46 -0000

First off, this is not a gloom and doom post about the greatness of the Rockies and how we can't beat them. I was just examining their team recently and I have to say, their bench with expanded rosters is perhaps the most amazing bench I have ever seen. No, it's not the reason they are winning, but I just find it remarkable. Here is the lineup you can make just off of their bench players

2B Eric Young Jr.

LF Seth Smith

3B Garret Atkins

RF Matt Murton

I mean just look at that lineup. That is probably a league average lineup, if not better. Defensively it's poor, but it's not absurdly bad either.

I just find it very impressive. Can anyone think of a better bench in MLB history?

What if they brought back Barry?

NeifiChicken — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 19:54:55 -0000

Please no posts about how this is stupid because it will never happen. I know that, you know that, we all know it. This is simply hypothetical fun. What do you guys think would happen if Sabean brought back Barry (today is the last day to add a player on the 40-man for post-season eligibility) to play a couple weeks in September and into the post-season??? (You can answer with a stat line, general idea, whatever you want).

It's pretty unprecedented territory given his 2 year layoff, but with the nature of this club's offense (espec. in LF) I think even in his state of mystery he could help this team. Statswise I really have no idea, but I think he might be able to do something like .260/.375/.450 which would really be quite a boost to our lineup. Just give him the standard first 3-4 at-bats and then bring on the defensive sub.

I know it will never happen (standard excuse would be "distraction to the club", but if the Giants are serious about going for it I do think it makes some sense. AT&T would be electric beyond all imagination. The fans would go nuts, even moreso than they have been recently. Best of all, the offense gets a free upgrade.

So what do you think Barry Bonds could do at his age given the layoff?

What is the definition of a "good manager"?

NeifiChicken — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:01:54 -0000

I see a lot of Bochy bashers on here, and while I'm certainly not a Bochy fan, I don't really consider myself anti-Bochy either. Part of this probably stems from my general view that a manager is just not supremely important, but certainly not all of it since I am aware it is the manager's decision on how use his personnel.

On one hand, you could look at the Giants record and say Boch has really done a good job, because this teams actual statistic performance indicates we should be a 59-58 team, meaning we have been 4 wins better than he should be, hence, how can you fault Bochy? (in reality, this 4 win boost has more do with the frequency of when our hitting occurs, which at some level is more or less random)

I mean, how much better does anyone think this would team would be if Mike Scioscia and Tony LaRussa (who in my humble opinion, is the best manager in the game), were at the helm? Would they lead this team more than 4 wins above its expected levels? Perhaps certain players performance would be better because they would used in situations they are more suited to thrive. I can't say, it's all hypothetical at this point.

So I want to ask (to anyone that has an opinion) what makes a good manager? A bad one? Why exactly is Bochy so bad?