SB Nation User Blog: NeifiChicken

Tom Tango hired by the Mariners

NeifiChicken — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 22:21:24 -0000

Tom Tango hired by the Mariners

Tom Tango, author of "The Book" was hired as a consultant for Seattle

Athletes with Illegitimate kids: Randy Johnson?

NeifiChicken — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:05:06 -0000

http://www.faniq.com/blog/Athletes-With-Illegitimate-Kids-The-Comprehensive-List-Blog-17243

Don't really know how legitimate this list is, but I've certainly heard some of these stories before (Malone's are legendary). When looking through this list what really caught me by surprise was Randy Johnson, as I had never heard anything about this before. I'm not making a moral judgement or anything, well maybe on Karl Malone and Shawn Kemp, but still, just interesting this gossip stuff isn't a bigger story for ESPN considered how tabloidish they have become.

Or maybe this list is just full of BS, although I'd bet most are probably true.

SOme other surprises:

-Scott SKiles

-Dwight Howard

-Vladamir Guererro

-Walter Herrmann

And yet, Barry Bonds is still the most morally reprehensible man to ever play sports, right?

Top 10 MLB prospects

NeifiChicken — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 20:13:08 -0000

Just wanting some public opinion on this matter. Who do you guys think are the top 10 prospects in baseball and why.

Does MadBum make your list (doesn't make mine)? I just want to see what people think.

The consensus number 1 for me is Matt Wieters, but beyond him I think there is a lot of room for debate, etc.

So please, feel free to post your personal top 10 with an explanation as to why

Barry Zito's change up

NeifiChicken — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 18:24:23 -0000

Yesterday I had the task of trying to identify each one of Barry Zito's pitches on film and I sort of had a hard time at first.

Obviously his curveball is huge, so it's easy to identify, and a fastball is a fastball, so that's easy. However, his changeup seemed to give me a real fit. His changeup has more movement on it than a normal changeup and I had a hard time differentiating it from his slider.

As the video went on, it became easier because once I got to see Zito throw a bit more and see all his pitches it became more clear what his off-speed pitches were actually breaking like.

I don't know if anyone here really has a great answer for me, but do you guys think it would initially be a challenge to differentiate between his slider and changeup? Are they that similar? I knew that Zito uses his change far more than his slider, so that was sort of intuitive, but nonetheless, his change seem to have some serious movement on it.

I don't really know what the point of this fanpost is, I just wanted to see some other opinions on Zito's changeup vs his slider

Predict the BCS games, win a free HDTV

NeifiChicken — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 17:55:57 -0000

Predict the BCS games, win a free HDTV

It's free and simple. Just predict as many BCS games as you can on the following link, and the person who predicts the most games correctly wins an HDTV.

Currently less than 100 people have entered, so the odds really aren't that bad

Eric Chavez?

NeifiChicken — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 18:19:28 -0000

The other fanshot about Randy Winn's trade value got me thinking about whether the A's might want Winn, which led to wonder what type of piece we could get for him. First off, I don't know if OAK would want Winn, someone else who follows the A's more closely could probably tell me but here's how I see it:

-They likely see Jack Cust as a DH, because his LF defense is terrible and they've just brought in Matt Holliday, who would suffer defensively if forced to play RF.

-Ryan Sweeney is certainly in their plans, either playing CF or RF.

-Travis Buck is still around and could be the guy I suppose, but he obviously had his struggles last year

My guess is they are probably planning on Buck in RF next year, but assuming they don't, could a Winn-Chavez swap make some sense? Here's my logic:

1) This would bring the A's salary relief as Chavez is owed 26 million over the next two seasons (assuming you buy him out)

2) The A's are seemingly trying to win now, and Randy Winn could obviously help them in the OF on both sides of the ball

3) Chavez is clearly no longer the franchise player they viewed him as when they extended him, but the last 3 years prior to 2008 were still solid years for a 3B.

4) Defensively his stats were quite poor last year, I think that had more to do with injuries than anything, I still think he can perform as the elite defensive 3B he has always been.

5) The A's aren't too deep at 3B, but Hannahan is an exceptional defender and Jeff Baisley is a young 3B that could be adequate offensively.

I'm not exactly in love with the idea given how injuries have taken a toll on his career, but he's still only 30 years old and I think he could have some good years left in him. A healthy Eric Chavez is certainly better than Randy Winn (especially to a team in our situation). Yes, in this scenario the Giants take all the risk, but they also stand to a reap a greater reward.

Thoughts?

OT: Fantasy Basketball advice

NeifiChicken — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 01:07:11 -0000

Alright, this might seem stupid on McC, but since all the posts recently have been about Sabathia, hot stove, angry Sabean, etc. I thought I'd change the subject to the sport of basketball (I refuse to discuss it on GSoM since I don't like that blog).

I am in a fantasy keeper league where at the end of each year we get to keep 4 players. Currently my keepers are Chris Paul, Chris Bosh, KEvin Durant, and Greg Oden. I have been offered a trade of Rudy Gay, Michael BEasley, and Richard Jefferson for Chris Bosh and Raymond Felton.

What should I do? My league's categories are all the standards categories, except we add Personal Fouls.

Does it help me now? Long term?

OT: Jizz in my pants

NeifiChicken — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 23:51:00 -0000

OT: Jizz in my pants

I don't know, maybe I'm just immature, but I like this

Fun with Renteria's Offensive Numbers

NeifiChicken — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 18:37:04 -0000

I'm going to avoid defense here, simply because I don't really have enough information I trust to say much of anything at all. Pretty much the consensus with Renteria's defense is that is projects to be below average, but not to the point where he becomes a complete liability. To give everyone a Giant's equivalent, most of the projections rate Renteria's 2009 defense at SS to be about as good as Castillo's 2008 3B defense.

Now, as much as we all hate Castillo and would hardly laud him for his defense, I think we could agree Castillo's defense wasn't glaringly bad (his bat took care of that). It wasn't good, and it certainly wasn't Pedro Feliz like, but it was something we could all live with had he been a decent hitter for his position.

That being said, let's get to the offense.

Last year Renteria hit .270/.317/.382 with 10 HR's, an OPS+ of 84, and a wOBA between .308 and .339 (depending on how you calculate it). Plain and simple, he was a below average player, but the year prior, Renteria was an all-star, so what explains the change and what can we expect out of him over the next two years?

One of the most glaring things to look at when talking about Renteria is his BABIP. As a precursor, for those who don't know, a BABIP is generally expected to be about .120 points higher than a hitter's Line Drive %. This isn't the most concrete of rules, and there are cases of hitter's consistently exceeding their expected BABIP's (generally speed players), but more or less the number should be .120 points higher than one's LD% and great flucuation from that number is generally considered either good or bad luck.

Renteria has hit around his expected BABIP in 3 out of the past six years.

2003: 22.8 LD% .342 BABIP (+.114) hit .330/.394/.480

2005: 19.9 LD% .312 BABIP (+.113) hit .276/.335/.385

2006: 20.4 LD% .319 BABIP (+.115) .293/.361/.436

He fell below his expected BABIP twice

2004: 21.9 LD% .307 BABIP (+.088) hit .287/.327/.401

2008: 22.4 LD% .289 BABIP (+.065) hit .270/.317/.382

He was above it once

2007: 20.0 LD% .373 BABIP (+.173) .332/.390/.470

As you can see clearly, an unlucky year with BABIP can really damage a season, just as a lucky one can lead to a great year. In 2008, Renteria had his unluckiest year in terms of BABIP. There is no rational explanation for this, except to say Renteria was just unlucky. His contact levels were usual and his HR rate's weren't his worst by any means. For a season that was one of the worst of his career, nothing really suggested he was due to decline greatly. The only significant change one could even argue is that Renteria was more aggressive at the plate than he's ever been, which in turn led to less walks, but I think that is likely a product of his early struggles (his numbers were Omar like in the first half).

If you adjusted his 2008 season only for BABIP, you'd get the following line: .318/.362/.443 which would obviously be quite tremendous. In truth, his walk rate would likely be a bit higher as well as I think without the numbers struggled he would have his normal walk rates, as well as pitchers would likely not pitch him as aggressively.

Now, does that mean he will hit .318 next year for the Giants? Well, probably not, because his 2008 LD% was very high, the highest it's been since 2003, and he probably isn't going to do that again. Still, I think an LD% around 20% is manageable, which will lead to good results as long as he isn't unlucky once more with his BABIP. On top of that, I think Renteria's walk rates next year will be more in line with his recent career, because he is moving back to the NL (where hitter's have superior walk rates vs the AL) and likely will be doing more with the bat, leading pitchers to be slightly less aggressive with him.

I think there is a lot to like about Renteria next year, and I'll go early in my projections to predict he'll give us the following line: .310/.370/.425 with 8 HR's. I think we'd all be thrilled to have a .370 OBP in our lineup, even if it comes with limited power

To give us some perspective on how similar player's to Renteria have done in their age 33 and 34 seasons I'll leave you all with this:

#1 comp: Alan Trammel (age 33-35 seasons due to injury, equiv to two seasons) - .288/.353/.432 with 22 HR's in 988 PA's

#2 comp: Buddy Bell - .254/.335/.398 with 30 HR's in 1290 PA's

#3 comp: Roberto Alomar - .300/.369/.458 with 31 HR's in 1332 PA's

Realistically, I think the Trammel one is the best and is probably close to what we could expect over the next two years of Renteria. Thoughts? Differing opinions?

Timmy open to extension

NeifiChicken — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:10:57 -0000

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/02/SPMI14G1HO.DTL

Previously his agent had said he preferred going year to year with arbitration. Anyone care to venture some guesses on money?

I believe as of now Lincecum has 5 control years left with the Giants, but its likely to be a super two after next season. He'll probably be looking at over 20 million in arbitration if that is the case.

So with that in mind here is what I propose, a 7-year extension worth 60 million with a club option for 15 million (with 3 million dollar buyout) bringing it to a guaranteed 63 million dollars.

The breakdown

2009: 3 million base salary, 3 million dollar signing bonus

2010: 7 million

2011: 7.5 million

2012: 8.5 million

2013: 10 million

2014: 10 million

2015: 11 million

2016: 15 million (or 3 million dollar buyout)

They can also add a1 million dollar bonus for each Cy Young victory and 250k for a finish in the top 3, which could add value to the deal.

If Lincecum goes year by year, here's how I see his money breaking down (assuming he stays at his high level of performance):

2009: 550k

2010 (super two): 4.5 million

2011: 7.5 million

2012: 10.5 million

2013: 16 million

which essentially means it looks like a 5 years, and around 35-39 million, although that assumes he stays at a high level and avoids injury.

Comparably, with a 7 year deal with a club option, we'd be buying out his first two years of free agency at about 10-12 million dollars a year, which is a real bargain in terms of dollars (and not to mention years).The Club option makes it all the more appealing since we can lock him up through his prime (32) and then let him leave when he seeks an even bigger pay day

Thoughts? Differing opinions?