Okay, new year, new team! Craziness, huh? Is the Turner Era over? Smith? What comes next. Two of our three killer elements (OL, pass rush) need sudden rebuilding, while a third one (QB) is in his peak and we don't want to squander him. So what to do this year? What to do with our coaching and management situation? What players do we need to replace? How can we replace them? What will our team look like afterward?

Management: I understand those who say that AJ must go. He did a great job for the first three years. The 2003 UDFA class was legendary. But since then, he's really struggled. This year was a bit better, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's getting a handle and coming into a better cycle. If we'd made the playoffs, then we could overlook the mistakes. But now, we really have to replace him, and replace him with somebody we know understands the team and knows how to evaluate talent. This is difficult to do, and you can wreck your team by jumping too fast. I think the best plan is to make it crystal clear that he's on notice, by interviewing GM/HC combos, and if you can find a guy that you know you can go forward with, doing it. No silly ventures. If nobody grabs you as having the smarts and understanding to get the job done, give AJ the Marty '06 deal: one year, get into the championship round or find a new gig.

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I know it sounds crazy, but the Chargers should consider fielding two Long Snappers instead of just one this year. I have a lot of reasons for thinking this, but they boil down to personnel, both at LS and at other positions.

1) The Unsung Hero: Twice in two years, the Chargers have suffered at the hands of the injury bug, when an unglamorous but absolutely critical player goes down immediately. In 2009, it was Nick Hardwick. Scott Mruczkowski had a very hard time adjusting to the role of full-time NFL Center; eventually he managed to figure it out, and we went 13-3, but you can put the plays that killed us that year against Baltimore and Denver squarely on his shoulders. Don't get me wrong; his performance was admirable, given the circumstances, but would we have gone 15-1 with Hardwick?

In 2010, David Binn was the one stricken. They went out and got another guy, who got IR'ed in practice almost immediately. The next LS was IR'ed the next week. Then they picked up this horrible bum and gave him a few weeks before giving up, and that's when they found Mike Windt. Mike Windt is certainly no David Binn, but he's also not Ethan Albright. With a good LS, we would almost certainly have made at least one more win early on, would have made the playoffs.

2) The Price of Glamor: We don't need Binn if we just go with Windt, but that would be a bummer, and it's not like it would save a lot of money. We should let Binn start for as long as he can do so, because he's that rarest of birds, an iconic Long Snapper. Cheap, and adds flavor (as well as reliability) to the team. He's a great tackler, and is spectacularly reliable as a snapper and blocker. However, the downside of being a great LS is that by the time you get that recognition, your career is reaching its conclusion. We have no reason to believe that Binn has even just one more season, any more than we do to believe he doesn't have five.

Windt is no Binn, but how could he be? He is at a minimum the Mooch to Binn's Hardwick, however, and since just a few weeks with a bad LS can kill your season, that's a lot better than nothing.

3) The Roster: A 53-man roster contains 8 inactive players, right? And we've finally settled on a d-line, we've only got two QBs, and we've only got 5 WRs most likely. That makes it easy to run 23 offensive players and 26 defensive players. That's a very comfortable personnel budget; in fact, it might be hard to find guys not to activate. So a single roster spot that doesn't have to be activated is less valuable now than it is in most years. If there's any change to roster size in the new CBA, it'll be an increase.

What do you think? Am I crazy? I think it's just too important to make sure that we know the guy who gets the ball to Kaeding and Scifres, and who protects our (over-)investment in K/P duties, and who gets downfield and covers for our rookie ST'ers, especially when our starter of choice is so advanced in years.

Wanna help me finish this?

I've got to retain the meter (Iambic tetrameter, except on line 5 of each stanza, which need only be 8 syllables), alliterative scheme (three or four uses of a single consonant per line, on the lifts, except on line 5 of each stanza), and rhyme scheme (aabbb).

A savage seven-second story,
A gritty grind, a gory glory.
And when it's o'er, what's been won?
Some dirt, and dust, scant damage done.
Then form on up for another scrum.

On football fields long wars are fought.
For public pride and praise and nought.
A hundred howling hectic fights,
At worst a woeful weekday flight.
Frankly, as wars go, that's alright.

What do we need? What do we get?

We have the following seven draft picks: #18, #50, one in the late 50s or early 60s, #82, one in the late 80s or the 90s, and two in the 200-range (a 6th and a comp). That's not enough picks to move way up, unless there's a great-looking OLB prospect.

I think we should target the following positions:

1st: Killer OLB prospect or the best CB available.

2nd: Right Tackle (dedicated RT), plus OLB, DE, WR, ILB, or Safety or CB if no CB drafted in the first.

3rd: WR, ILB, TE.

6th/Comp: Best player available, QB

What do you think we should do?

Updated 12/31, 12:40pm. Please re-read, as I've changed the order and appended a few.

Feel free to add your own, if you feel poetic or think it cathartic.

Fairweather lightning!

Bright flashes under blue skies,

washed out in the storm.

December's bloom wilts

Nothing ever guaranteed

No more slow starts, please.

We now cannot laugh

at the Raiders anymore

A bitter spring waits.

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I have this nagging feeling in my gut that the AFC West will be the most improved division in pro football this year, and will have a great shot to send a team to the Wildcard for the first time since 2006. I see the one team that's been seen as a "big fish in a small pond" as remaining good, while the other teams improve around it. So I wanted to offer my personal perspective as a casual-but-engaged observer, and see how others agree or don't.

After the jump, I'll lay out in brief what I think are the important elements of our discussion: where the four teams stand, how they've developed, and who they face, whether in the AFCW, the AFCS, the NFCW or the strength-of-schedule matches. Then I'll make a guess at records and standings. Feel free to blow me apart in the comments; I have thick skin.

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Merriman says he wants assurance that he won't be traded. It's no secret that there were talks earlier about a trade for Merriman, and with English, Phillips and some good backups there's no reason to believe the Bolts wouldn't love to work out a deal with, say, Cleveland or Buffalo... much to Merriman's detriment. I think the team probably wants to trade a holdout, and I can't blame them. I think if one of the holdouts is traded, the others might be more likely to cave (assuming AJ gives them an opportunity to do so, which is a big huge if).

It's possible that AJ has a short-term deal in mind for McN, but is waiting to see what else he has on the roster (not enough, if yesterday is an indication) before he shows his hand. Or maybe he's just being AJ; you know, the backup RB can have $7M and the TE can be the highest-paid ever, but the starting LT can eat cake and the $92M QB can eat ... turf. Big Mac is also worth more on the team than off; an above-average LT with injury issues is worth a good draft pick, but not enough to justify the loss.

But VJ is a different story. He wants money, lots of it, now, and since he can't get it, well, he'll be there in the playoffs. Wouldn't it make the Merriman situation easier if VJ were traded? I know trade offers were rebuffed, but is that just because the teams didn't offer enough? Would VJ sign if he knew he were going to be traded to some other team and get his huge contract there? What would he fetch? A first and change? Who would want him?

The conventional wisdom and common sense together seem to be suggesting the Chargers are planning on making one more trade, and if so, the traded player is likely to be either Merriman or Sproles. What are they worth, really, and who wants them? This underinformed outsider makes some conjecture, below the jump.

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You heard it here. Second verse, same as the first. I hope I'm not jinxing anything, but to this Chargers homer it looks like clear sailing in San Diego.

The Chargers have a pretty easy schedule next year no matter how the specifics go, with seven games against teams that pick in the top ten this year and four more against teams that went 8-8. Of the remaining 5 teams, our last-encounter record is 5-0 (in fact, across the whole schedule it's 15-1). Pre-draft guesswork is not worth much, but no matter how the draft and offseason pan out I like our chances. Even if we fail to improve in any meaningful way and end up adding only two replacement-level halfbacks, I think this final 53 roster is better than anything we have any reasonable way to expect most of our competition to approach... with a few notable exceptions. Just looking at who we face and where, I'm pretty sure this season will be a fun romp. 2011, not so certain. But if I'm right, get ready to enjoy one more halcyon year.

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