How much to believe each rumor you hear from the Winter Meetings? Probably about as much as you believe each rumor on every "baseball rumor" site around the web. In other words, 90% of all rumors are false, and the other 10% are simply ridiculous.

Nonetheless, some of the "news" coming out of the Winter Meetings so far is interesting -- and could potentially be interesting to the A's...

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When you sing, "It's that wonderful time of the year..." you're not referring to Christmas. Not unless you like sloppy wet kisses from Aunt Bertha and another pair of socks that don't match the shirt you didn't want last year. No, this is the magical time of the year when important-looking people descend on the same hotel to discuss how they can fill each others' holes and not in a dirty way.

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Since the Jake Fox trade (which is totally different from "the Jeff Gray trade"), I've heard mostly two predictions in regards to Jack Cust's future with the A's: Either this means Cust will be non-tendered or traded or it means humanity will be enduring the defensive stylings of either Cust or Fox in 2010. One way, the A's very bad offense of 2009 just got a bit worse. Another way, the A's have decided to emulate their favorite company softball team out in the field. However, I really don't see either of those two as the strongest possibility.

NO! Don't jump!!! You have so much to live for!!! {sees left side of the infield} Never mind. Jump.

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Alas no, this post is not about Angel Villanova. Or Lincecum. Or Loaiza. Goodness gracious, does anyone play baseball and still obey the law? You know you jaywalk, Mark Ellis. Admit it -- just admit it! I'd make a terrific district attorney.

Are you currently in the process of trying to avoid thanksgiving leftovers? The best way is to quit cold turkey. That's not funny on so many levels.

Don't jump! OK do, and we can talk about scouting, not "metrics" and not "eyeballing," but that third way...Intrigued? Well, jump anyway and let's talk...

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More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

"Chloroform? Oops."

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Imagine playing "musical chairs" at a party, where the music stops and there's an empty chair but nobody standing looking for a place to sit. That's more like the "musical chairs" problem the A's could find themselves with at the one position commonly thought to be over-crowded: 1B.

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More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Aaron Cunningham gets ready to show Bobby Crosby what it means to make contact.

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The trouble with "eyeball scouting" is that sometimes you see things but that doesn't mean you can explain them. I'm curious to get the community's take on two especially puzzling major league samples, those turned in by Aaron Cunningham and Eric Patterson, both of whose callups have shared the same phenomena: Swinging through fastballs.

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First and foremost, all day Saturday (9am-5pm), I'm in front of the CVS at Shattuck/Rose in Berkeley, supervising student volunteers who will be guilt-tripping encouraging shoppers to donate canned foods and Robert Parishibles to the Alameda County Community Food Bank. OptimistPrime and 67MARQUEZ have promised to stop by at some point, and not just because I informed them that if they did stop by I would match all the canned food donations but if they didn't stop by I would take cans out of the barrel and hurl them at frightened kittens. Gigglingone is still thinking about how she feels about animal brutality and is listed as a "definite maybe."

Please stop by and say "hi" if you can. (I don't mean if you can say "hi" -- I mean if you can stop by.) By doing so, you will be helping the hungry (because if you don't stop by, I will see to it that my student volunteers starve). Oh yes, of course, you can bring canned foods too -- terrific idea, excellent point. But mostly, stop by and entertain me. And please don't use excuses like "I live on the East Coast" or "I have to go to work," because we both know that you can still buy a plane ticket and arrive before 5pm, or you can quit your job in order to come entertain me.

So be a team player -- show some grit and intangible leadership and tell the world, "I will make this a canned food drive, not a can't food drive." You were going to come until I said that, weren't you? Dang.

In other news, I'm excited to see some of baseball's metrics now being applied to other sports, as it shows how baseball is really at the forefront of complex statistical analysis.

Baseball fans are familiar with FIP, a pitching metric that only looks at "fielding independent" results such as walks, HRs, and HBP. The NBA has announced they will soon begin using a similar metric known as DIS. DIS stands for Defense Independent Shooting, and will look only at free throws, breakaway layups, and shots defended by Steve Nash. They are also trying to incorporate "line drive rate" into the metric, but so far only Shaq's free throws would be affected anyway.

I really don't get what takes so long about these Staturday posts -- I whipped that one out in less than 15 minutes. What do you mean? That's what who said? Oh, heh.

Finally, John Sickels interviewed Billy Beane yesterday. (I don't mean "He should have interviewed Billy a long time ago!" or "In his last act before dying, Sickels interviewed the A's GM. I mean this information is also the last item in this post.) The interview went kind of like this.

See you tomorrow for a cartoon and a real post -- or see you later today if you care at all about kittens.

Here's how a conversation generally goes with a passionate A's fan unclear on the concept:

2008: "We should get J.J. Hardy; he's really good."
          "No way -- we'd have to give up so much to get him!!!111"

2009: "We should 'buy low' on J.J. Hardy."
           "No way -- now I'm worried that he sucks!!!111"

2008: "We should sign Russell Branyan; he'll be really cheap."
          "No way -- he's not that good!!!111"

2009: "We should sign Russell Branyan; he's proven himself now."
           "No way -- now he's overvalued!!!111"

           "Hasn't proven he's any good yet!!!111"
           "On the decline!!!111"
           "Too injury prone!!!111"
           "Too good; we can't afford him!!!111"
           "Not good enough; we don't want him!!!111"

Thing is...If you stay away from players who just showed how bad they can be, and stay away from players who might have just shown the best they'll ever show, stay away from players who are risks for decline and injury, and don't even think about those really pricey players who are good, established, healthy, and in their prime...Who exactly is left?

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There are two things we could do today that we won't do -- three if you include doing the dishes -- and they are to debate whether managers are important, i.e., impactful enough to be worth analyzing, and to debate who should win the coveted "The votes for these awards are always made by the wrong people for the wrong reasons" award for 2009.

If you find yourself venturing into either of these two conversations, then you have to do the dishes and make it a trifecta. Today we're going to look at the "how" -- if intelligent people voted intelligently (sorry, Rafael Palmeiro: NO GOLD GLOVE FOR YOU!), what would form the basis for assessing the Manager of the Year?

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Speaking of umpires, umpires need to enforce the rules rather than either making them up ("No, that's only a strike when the count is 3-0"), inventing them ("Ah, that's the 'neighborhood play' as found in section...um, section...well it's the 'neighborhood play'"), ignoring them ("You have 20 seconds to throw the pitch, Betancourt, and you're now at 18...19...19.5...19.9...19.92...Seriously, throw it soon, ok?"), not noticing them ("No, he's not out unless he's tagged while not on the base. He was? Right in front of me? You don't say!"), or randomly channeling Shakespeare ("Ah, but Mauer, you see: Fair is foul...").

And while we're asking the umpires to enforce the rules, could we make a few of the rules better? Some changes I'd like to see...

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