SB Nation User Blog: Nineraguan

Missing Piece(s)

Nineraguan — Tue, 27 May 2008 00:51:59 -0000

Listening to Mike Nolan on KNBR this afternoon (it originally aired last Thusday), it was obvious that he believes the team is nearly done with the rebuilding process. Maybe that's an exaggeration, but he clearly thinks that the defense and special teams are as good as they need to be and the offense, with the addition of Mike Martz, will be the best in Nolan's tenure. Whether this is true or not, I think most would agree that the team has improved by light years since Nolan's arrival. In fact, the roster has so much more talent now than it did three years ago, that there are really only a few more missing pieces. The subject of this post will be my take on what's missing.

There are a few positions that people who post to this blog have been up in arms about since last season. Actually, it's not accurate to say that there are complaints about positions - the complaints are about areas of the game. There's not pass rush, the O-line lacks depth and can't protect the quarterback, etc. I'm sure some will say that the team has failed to address those problems this offseason. I would disagree.

I recognize that BY and Marques Douglas played at a high level last year, but the additions of Justin Smith, Balmer, and Manny Lawson will make the unit more effective in pass rush situations. I also think the offensive line will play better next year, especially in the NFC West. I think Staley and Snyder will come into their own, Rachal will make a solid player wherever he lands, and Jeb Terry will be a multi-purpose backup with Wragge.

The one area I'm most concerned about is the rapport between the QB position and the wideouts. This is not only Smith's fourth Offensive Coordinator in four years, it's his fourth receiving corps. He hasn't looked like he was on the same page as a receiver since the first half of the '06 season when he was connecting with Antonio Bryant. Will Martz be able to fix that? I'm not sure. That's why I think this is the missing piece going into the '08 season. If Smith can develop chemistry with Bruce and Johnson, I think this will be a successful season. If not, the team will stall like last year.

Thoughts?

Boring is beautiful

Nineraguan — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 18:30:15 -0000

My other favorite 49er blogger, Vince Chhabria at the Merc, headlined his latest post, "Boring is not necessarily bad." I've found some numbers that support Vince's theory. To summarize the findings, the teams that improved the most in the course of one off-season were also teams who had relatively boring drafts prior to their improved year. Here are the details.

Since realignment in 2002, there are 10 teams that have made the leap from not-very-good to division winner in the course of one year. Each of these teams won their division after posting a record at or below .500 in the preceding season. These teams are:

'07 Packers
'06 Ravens and Saints
'05 Bears, Panthers, and Bengals
'04 Chargers and Falcons
'03 Chiefs and Rams

I looked at the first 4 rounds of each team's pre-breakout draft with an eye toward the "boringness" of the position selected. Instead of trying to define boring, I'll just give you the key numbers, then follow up with some half-baked conclusions.

Defensive Backs: 11
Offensive LIneman: 8
Linebackers: 7
Wide Receivers: 7
Defensive Lineman: 6
Running Backs: 3
Quarterbacks: 0

Conclusion 1: These are boring drafts

No matter how you define boring, these were some boring draft classes. The most striking figure is the number of offensive skill positions selected. The guys who get the ball made up about 23% of the picks. Normally, over 33% of the players taken in the first four rounds are offensive skill position players.

Conclusion 2: Trenches over edges

The less flashy Defensive Tackles were selected over Defensive Ends 5-1. If I had only considered the first 3 rounds of the draft, that number would have been 5-0. The same is only sort of true on the offensive side of the ball, with Guards/Centers being chosen over Tackles 5-3. The positions usually split 50-50 in the first 4 rounds of the draft. This is surprising considering the importance (and salary) of Tackles compared to Guards and Centers.

Conclusion 3: Defense over offense

This is iffy because of the sample size, but the 10 teams I looked at did favor defense over offense, especially in the first two rounds where defensive players were chosen over offensive players 16-6. This is notable because the league average is 50-50.

Caveats Galore

FIrst, a draft does not an off-season make. All kinds of things happened to these teams in addition the draft that bumped them up, including earlier drafts, free agency, strength of schedule, new coaching staffs, etc. Second, don't take this to mean that teams that won did so because of their conservative draft. There are probably plenty of teams that drafted more conservatively and still either continued to loose or lost more. A more likely explanation is that the teams that don't make flashy picks feel they are sufficiently strong in the skill positions and are bolstering the rest of the roster. Finally, the data is based on a teeny, tiny sample of 10 teams over the course of 6 years. I'm not Doug Farrar and don't pretend I am. If you want to find flaws in the data, you will.

So what does this all mean for the 9ers? I'll leave that as a question for anyone who took the time to read this post.

Stats on Gailey

Nineraguan — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 21:36:39 -0000

Here are some stats on Chan Gailey's record as an offensive coordinator from nfl.com

Pittsburgh '96
Rushing Yards per Game: 2nd
Rushing TDs: 3rd
Rushing 1st Downs: 1st
Passing Yards per Game: 27th
Passing TDs: 24th
Sacks Allowed: 2nd fewest

Pittsburgh '97
Rushing Yards per Game: 1st
Rushing TDs: 3rd
Rushing 1st Downs: 1st
Passing Yards per Game: 23rd
Passing TDs: 9th
Sacks Allowed: 1st fewest

Miami '00
Rushing Yards per Game: 14th
Rushing TDs: 7th
Rushing 1st Downs: 15th
Passing Yards per Game: 27th
Passing TDs: 24th
Sacks Allowed: 7th fewest

Miami '01
Rushing Yards per Game: 23rd
Rushing TDs: 9th
Rushing 1st Downs: 15th
Passing Yards per Game: 19th
Passing TDs: 12th
Sacks Allowed: 7th fewest

Most obviously from these stats, Gailey is successful at protecting his quarterbacks. He also consistently ranks high in rushing TDs (never ranking lower than 9th), which says he'll go to the ground game in the red zone. I think those stats would indicate he's a good fit.

On the flip side, He doesn't seem to move the ball in the air, never ranking higher than 19th in passing yards per game.

Good Week for Davis and Lelie

Nineraguan — Sat, 20 Oct 2007 17:49:11 -0000

Looks like VD chose a good week to get healthy. (If that's not an invitation to a venereal disease joke, I don't know what is.) The Giants are dead last in stopping opposing tight ends so far this year, giving up a DVOA of 95%. This from Football Outsiders, the same source Fooch has referred to on occasion that regularly puts the 9ers in the top five versus opposing #1 receivers. For the uninitiated, giving up a DVOA of 95% is not only bad, it's really bad. But the Giants are even worse in stopping 3rd receivers, giving up a 102.5% DVOA. If there is a game all year for Ashlie Lelie to prove he's worth his salary, this is it.

To me, these numbers suggest the Giants' safeties and linebackers are poor in pass coverage. I'll be keeping a close eye on whether the 9ers offense takes advantage of that. If they don't, I'll be ranting about it all week.

FYI, the 9ers are currently 29th versus opposing tight ends, giving up a 58% DVOA.