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Nivra

  • joined Oct 27, 2010
  • last login Jul 23, 2014
  • posts 128
  • comments 8636
User Blog

1 Step Closer to the Playoffs: MLB approves 2nd wildcard team

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Wouldn't have helped last year. The Giants finished 3 games behind Atlanta who finished 1 game behind St. Louis. But maybe the Giants would've tried harder to win if they knew they only had to overtake 1 team?

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Poll: Who's the next prospect to get "speed-promoted?"

The Giants generally take it slow and steady with their prospects. However, each year they seem to choose one prospect who's raking and do a speed-promotion either because of talent and...

A's Scott Sizemore injured: Trade Conor!

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Anything interesting the A's might have that would be worth trading for? Would Sabean actually trade for a prospect if he was shipping one out? Shipman or Cabrera?

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Zimmerman Extension: What Giants would you do it for?

Hot off Sabean's failure to sign Timmy to a long term extension, he has to deal with Cain. The Giants in essence refused a Zimmerman deal for Timmy. Tim wanted 8 years, which is what Zimmerman...

Newman on the Yankee's Flores: Does this apply to Jarrett Parker?

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Newman essentially says that a high walk rate for a prospect, although indicative of good hitting skill, also signals a reduced ceiling because they don't have a lot of room for improvement. It's an interesting argument, and I think one that holds merit. It also signals that saber based prospect evaluation that rewards strong plate discipline may at the same time be over-valuing it. Quotes: "On one hand, it’s great to see a young player with advanced plate discipline for his age and Flores certainly has it. On the other hand, that walk rate also forces me to wonder where the room for growth is?" "If Flores is already able to identify pitches to drive and work counts to his favor, then his projection becomes much more dependent on physical development. ... As he advances, pitchers will challenge Flores more with fastballs and force him to hit his way through the upper levels as opposed to drawing walks due to his simply not being viewed as a hitter who will do damage. With a good base of hitting skills to work from, Flores is off to a fine start, but walk rates in Flores’ case may not be quite as valuable an indicator of success as many will assume."

Prospect Age vs. Level

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Mke Newman has a nice article about age vs. level when evaluating prospects. He has this great tidbit: "For me, projecting based on a basic 22-24-26 rule helps keep it simple when at the ballpark scouting. If I can project a player to establish himself for good at 22, then the potential is there for him to be a star. At 24, a player is likely to be a solid regular, but will fall short of star-level status. At 26, a bench role is the most likely outcome. This is not to say it’s a perfect system, as players will occasionally buck the general trend, but I’ve found it serves me quite well in practice" Gary Brown is 23 in 2012. He's already missed the "rule of thumb" for a star. I think we really need to be rooting for a promotion to AAA mid-season, so he's ready to join the club in 2013. That would at least put him into the "solid regular" bin. Of course, we could also hope that Gary's an exception to the rule and is just a late bloomer due to his college draft status. For those who follow Tangotiger, mgl, and inside the book, there's a discussion there, too: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/two_players_have_the_same_stats_one_is_much_younger_which_one_will_be_bette/#comments

Vogelsong set on continuing his stellar pitching

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Gotta prop up my son! Vogelsong: "When you’re growing up you don’t see yourself struggling and getting booed and having nights where you can’t sleep because you can’t figure out what’s going on," Vogelsong said. "To finally be helping a team and to be counted on to win big games – that’s the part that felt good." This guy is all heart. We all know about him turning down the Dodgers at the beginning of last year to sign as an NRI with the Giants, giving us our feel-good story of the season. He continued to bleed orange and black this offseason: For the first time in years, Vogelsong felt that he was wanted, which made the decisions easy when it came time to negotiate a new contract. After several phone calls between the Giants and Vogelsong's side, a two-year, $8.3 million contract was agreed upon in January. "It's the first time in my career that I've ever had someone be like, 'We want you around, and not just for one year, but for two and maybe three,' " Vogelsong said. "That was the most gratifying part. It was a pretty easy process." Seriously, he came up through the system. Once a Giant at heart, always a Giant at heart. I'm proud of my son!

Angel Villalona's visa not approved for medical reasons

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Villalona was deemed unfit to qualify for his P1 visa, which requires that he establish his status as an elite athlete, Evans said. It's the first time the Giants could remember a player's visa being flagged for that reason.

Fangraphs: Scouting the Sally chat w/Mike Newmann

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Select quotes: "Of the group, I've seen Wheeler and May so I'll stick to those two. I prefer Wheeler to may by a large margin." "Well, Belt is teaching prospect followers that age-versus-level does matter regardless of the numbers. However, he really does need 600 plate appearances or the chance to go somewhere else. I can see Huff playing because he's being paid well, but Schierholtz? 28 with a .750 OPS is a find 4th outfielder, but no way he's a starter on a first division ball club." On Brown vs. Trout vs. Gose: "Trout's all-around offensive production will trump the other two. In many leagues, OBP is overlooked as a core component of so many categories. If Trout is a .300/.380 guy with some power and a ton of steals, that's a fantastic player. I'm leery of Brown due to his being a college guy crushing the Cal. My being enamored with Gose is no secret, but his strikeout totals will drag down his average/OBP numbers lessening his value." "Q: From most top prospect lists, I get the feeling that Gary Brown is one of the more controversial players. Why, do you think that is? Mike Newman: College players dominate the California League. He more or less did what he was supposed to do. Francisco Peguero did the same thing and was a meh prospect. Should Gary Brown repeat in double-A, I'll buy into his production much more."

Cain, Vogelsong among the 5 luckiest pitchers of 2011

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The author predicts massive HR/FB regression for Cain, in line with his career HR/FB of 6.5% moving his ERA back towards his career line of 3.35. He also predicts ERA regression for Vogelsong back to his FIP of 2011 around the high-3's in ERA.

Giants: 2nd best team at building through the draft since 2002

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The Giants have created 97.9 WAR since 2002 through the draft, second only to the Red Sox. I had no idea they were this awesome at it. Now to await Belt's rise to prominence and the age of Gary Brown and Joe Panik.

FanPost
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Timmy's extension

Given the rumors surrounding his agent asking for an 8-year deal, I'm curious what the rest of you think. For myself, I'm not sure I'd want Timmy on an 8-year deal. I think my order of...

Fangraphs: Beltran will sign for the price of Affeldt and Lopez

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The strangely thin Beltran market: Beltran will end up signing for something like one year and $12 million, or two years and $20 million, both of which could include playing time incentives. This is well below what 4-5 WAR often costs on the market, but a low enough salary that teams aren’t scared off by his injury history. The lack of interest in Beltran is strange, but likely means some team will get a very productive player at a relative bargain. Alternatively, we could've had Willingham or Cuddyer for cheaper than Lopez and Affeldt: Willingham and Cuddyer will probably end up signing deals with average annual values in the $7-$10 million range.

Affeldt perspective: Capps signs for $4.75MM

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This was a closer who posted a -0.4 WAR last season and in 2009, sandwiching a 1.2 WAR 2010. If Capps can make this much, I'm sure there's gotta be a market for Affeldt.

Willingham: a Saber-friendly acquisition

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A team with a slightly pitcher friendly ballpark, but one which gives a significant advantage to right-handed batters over left-handed batters is pursuing Willingham. Josh started pulling most of his fly balls to left field last year, and increased his FB distance significantly. If those trends persist, it could result in a significant HR increase for the new team. Too bad that team is the saber-friendly Rays, and not a team with a similar need and ballpark.

FanPost
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ZiPS projections

Dan Szymborski's done them again: I figure this deserved its own thread for those who don't read the main thread. Initial thoughts: If Pablo, Belt, Posey, Cabrera and Huff all meet or exceed their...

Jose Molina gets $1.5mm

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Definitely a good signing, as he's one of the best catchers in the league at framing pitches. He was worth 2.2 WAR over the last two seasons and that's without taking framing into account. Why doesn't Sabean ever have signings like this? If you take catcher framing into account, Jose Molina is an insane catcher, having averaged 35 runs saved via framing over 5 seasons.

Giants non-arb Ross

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This means no comp picks if Ross signs elsewhere. I'm of the opinion the Giants should've offered Ross arb and gambled that another team would sign him so that they could cash in on the draft picks. Perhaps the Giants felt it was too risky that he would accept arb and force them into a one-year contract that would balloon their 2012 budget. Ross plays a passable CF and is a league average hitter. A team that signed him to do that would get a good deal.

Baggs: Timmy's agent sez no long-term deal talks

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From Baggs: I spoke with Rick Thurman, Tim Lincecum’s agent, this morning. He downplayed recent reports that the Giants are working hard to sign Lincecum to a multiyear contract. Yes, Thurman and the Giants have had some discussions, but they were broad parameters. Nothing different than what would normally take place at this time with an arbitration-eligible player, Thurman said. "We’re just preparing our arbitration case, as we have all along," Thurman said. Thurman and Lincecum are looking at a one- or two-year contract. Anything longer would involve buying out free-agent years. Thurman said "there’s no such thing as an absolute" but he doubted Lincecum would sign anything longer than a two-year contract. As I wrote the other day, expect both Lincecum and the Giants to file their arbitration numbers and exchange them before any deals are reached. For the timing of that process, please see the previous post.

Fangraphs: Furcal almost as good as Rollins

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At this point in their respective careers, the main difference between Furcal and Rollins is that the former doesn’t expect a big contract. Even if his performance, albeit injury-rattled, would merit a 3-4 year deal, Furcal will likely sign for one or two years and less per annum. Rollins may be more of a sure thing, but not so much so to the point of committing significant team resources to his acquisition when a similarly-skilled, and markedly less expensive alternative exists.
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Javier Lopez signed to a 2 year, $8.5mm deal

Per ESPN:   Left-handed reliever Javier Lopez has agreed to an $8.5 million, two-year contract to stay with the San Francisco Giants, a person with knowledge of the negotiations told The...

Timmy prefers short-term deals

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So much for signing him to a 5 year $100mm deal, buying out his first 3 years of free agency.

FanPost
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2012 Giants Payroll Crunch. Is there Enough LOL for a Free Agent?

I don't know if anyone's taken an in-depth look at our payroll next year, yet, but it's not looking good.  I've seen lots of people mentioning they expect the Giants to acquire at least one nice...

FanPost
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2011 Fans Scouting Report! Rate the G-men

http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/   Baseball's fans are very perceptive. Take a large group of them, and they can pick out the final standings with the best of them. They can forecast the...

Twin Baby Giraffes From:...

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Twin Baby Giraffes From: http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10150279995211828.336565.43225541827&type=1

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The Giants' stable of arms post-Wheeler

A week ago, Seedlings to Stars had a short post about the state of the Giants' pitching post-Wheeler.  Not much in the way of new information for most of us here, but here's a couple quotes:   W...

FanPost
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Chris Martinez ranks the State of the Giants minor league system [Updated w/top30]

  Over at Bay City Ball, she's ranking #1-30 in three separate posts. 1 Brandon Belt 1B/OF Fresno (AAA)/San Francisco 2 Francisco Peguero OF San Jose (Advanced A)/Richmond (AA) 3 Gary Brown OF San...

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