SB Nation User Blog: NoahChestnut

Is Gruden Commitment-phobic?

NoahChestnut — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 21:29:21 -0000

Great quote from Jeff Garcia to the Tampa Trib's Ira Kaufman. Garcia said,

“Jon Gruden hasn’t given you an answer yet?,” Garcia said. “He loves quarterbacks, but he likes to just date. He doesn’t like to marry.”

I guess he hasn't met Garcia's wife.

Updated Favre watch: Favre is at home playing with his dogs in Mississippi. There is nothing substantive to report outside of the fact that he will not be playing in Green Bay next year. I think we all kind of figured that one out by now.

Chances Favre suits up for the Bucs - 10 to 1.

Official Favre Watch - Permission Slip Time

NoahChestnut — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 19:20:15 -0000

Jay Glazer of Fox Sports reports that Tampa is also allowed to talk to Favre. And so it officially begins. It looks like Green Bay is going to give us a chance. I still don't buy it, especially because we play them in the regular season and are a legit NFC contender, but this does start to warm my heart.

Let's see if this can get done by next week. The sooner the better.

Or we can always have Garcia start the season and then have Favre come in around week four or five. I'm sure that will be just peachy.

F-A-V-R-E to the Jets?

NoahChestnut — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 18:41:51 -0000

Now this sounds believable. Chris Mortensen reports that Green Bay is allowing Favre to talk to the Jets. The Packers and the Jets do not play each other this year and let's be honest, probably won't play against each other in Tampa.

Mortensen also reports that the Jets and the Bucs are the only two teams that have contacted the Packers about Favre. At least we are trying.

Obviously, dealing #4 to the Jets makes the most sense for the Packers. He will be in the AFC. Hopefully, Favre can take a couple of games away from New England and the Packers will be happy.

Now, let's say this deal goes down and Mangini gets Favre, but he is happy with Clemens/Pennington (unlikely). What is to stop him from trading Favre to the Bucs or the Vikings for a higher pick?

We all know that Bill Belichick knows how to "misinterpret the rules". I'm sure Mangini does too.

Flux Capacitor Time

NoahChestnut — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:55:17 -0000

Get in your DeLorean and go back to 2000 when the Bucs decided to trade two first rounders for Keyshawn Johnson. In the present, I don't see a deal in which the Bucs would trade two first rounders for any wide receiver. Let's say the Bucs owned the 13^th and 27^th picks for the 2008 draft. Would you have given them both up for T.O.? For Randy Moss? For Antonio Gates? Probably not. What you would see is a combination of second and a fourth or a second this year and a first next year. Yet, we gave up two first rounders for Keyshawn. What if we kept those picks and didn't trade Keyshawn. Let's go back to 2000.

With the 13^th and 27^th picks from the Bucs, the Jets took DE John Abraham and TE Anthony Becht. When healthy, Abraham is one of the better DE's in the business. Imagine the damage he could have done lined up with Warren. Abraham would have been a substantial upgrade over Steve White. Also, remember that this season Brett Culpepper was still playing well and Booger (in his second year) was our primary DT sub. I would stick with this pick.

Before re-drafting the 27^th player, let's look at the entire Bucs draft from 2000.

2^nd Rd - Cosey Coleman, G Tennessee

3^rd Rd - Nate Webster, LB Miami (FL)

4^th Rd - No Pick

5^th Rd - James Whalen, TE, Kentucky

6^th Rd - Dave Gibson, DB, USC

7^th Rd - Joe Hamilton, QB Georgia Tech

Cosey was never a great guard, Nate Webster didn't start for more than a handful of games before bolting to Cincinnati. James Whalen was hyped but failed to live up to expectations. I don't remember Dave Gibson. Joe Hamilton was a pre-season hero, but wound up going to the Arena league.

Now, to the 27^th pick. This is a tough choice. The Bucs need a wide receiver and depth for their offensive line. But, two of best players available are Rob Morris and Keith Bullock. Both were great college linebackers who played in the middle.

1999 was Hardy's last season and his replacement was Jamie Duncan. Duncan was okay, but imagine how could Keith Bullock would have been if lined up with a younger Shelton and Derrick Brooks. I know drafting more defense to an already stacked defense may not seem like the best choice, but let's be honest. We still couldn't score with Keyshawn. Adding Abraham and Bullock would have been devastating. Even if they didn't start, their impact in the rotation would have improved the overall quality of the defense. New York's victory shows how defensive depth is essential. Also, Rob Morris would be an interesting pick. He did a great job running the Tampa-Two in Indianapolis.

Oh, and instead of drafting Cosey Coleman, how about a little receiver out of Florida State named Laveranues Coles. The Jets grabbed him in the third round. Coles and Green would have been a small, but potent tandem.

So now our draft for 2000 is

1^st - John Abraham, Keith Bullock

2^nd - Laveranues Coles

Here is how I would finish the draft.

3^rd - Dante Hall, RB from Texas A&M. Originally selected in the 5^th round by Kansas City.

4^th - No Pick

5^th - Tom Brady, QB, Michigan

6^th - Mike Anderson, RB Utah

7^th - ? Anyone have a great undrafted free agent.

Obviously hindsight makes all things better, but imagine a Bucs team in 2000 with a younger, faster defense. An amazing punt and kick return specialist and one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game waiting in the wings. There is no guaranteeing that Tom Brady would have become Tom Brady without being in New England, but its not like he was surrounded my amazing offensive talent in Boston.

Let's take this a step further. So with this defense, let's say the Bucs signed Simeon Rice after this season. So now our defensive line has Abraham, Rice Booger and Sapp.

What about the 2001 draft?

Let's forget about Kenyatta Walker and draft Santa Moss in the 1^st.. Now Brady's options are Moss, Coles and Green. This is a fast, elusive receiving corp.

3^rd - Stick with Dwight Smith

4^th - Ryan Diem, G. Indianapolis took him one pick after us. We drafted John Howell.

I'll stick with the rest of the Bucs draft where we got Ellis Wyms and Jameel Cook.

So instead of Coleman, we have Diem starting. The Bucs are still in need of a LT, but that is something Kenyatta could not deliver on.

What about 2002? Let's say the Bucs kept Tony and didn't trade for Gruden.

Now with the 21^st and 53^rd picks in 2002, the Bucs take.

21^st - LeCharles Bentley, Center, Ohio State. This pick was tough because Ed Reed is on the board. I would snatch up Ed Reed in a heart beat, but adding a quality Center would have been a priority.

53^rd - Sheldon Brown, CB, South Carolina. More depth in the secondary is never a bad thing. If we were still having WR problems, Deion Branch?

2003 is tough because we won the Superbowl. Even if the Bucs' didn't win it all in 2002, let's stick with the same picks for to prove that even with the last pick in the first, we can get great talent.

32^nd - Eric Steinback, G, Iowa. This gives the Bucs one of the best young interior offensive lines in the league.

With the last pick in the second round, instead of D.White, let's take Jason Witten, TE, Tennessee.

So, to recap.

If we kept Tony and didn't trade for Keyshawn. The Bucs could have picked up three to four pro bowlers. Were Keyshawn and Gruden worth that?

Simms Getting Savvy?

NoahChestnut — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 17:21:52 -0000

Will Favre be able to run the Buc's offense with just a limited training camp? In order to answer this question, GM Bruce Allen went to a surprising source. He turned to Chris Simms. Simms recalled his conversation with Allen to the The St Pete Times:

"He asked if I felt Brett would be able to come back and be good here if he didn't have a lot of reps in training camp. I said I thought he would but there would have to be some compromise with coach (Jon) Gruden. He'll just want the play called and to drop back and throw it in there."

I agree with Simms that Favre's success in Tampa hinges on Gruden releasing his grip on the reigns of the playbook. Simms said what many of us already know; Favre is a gunslinger. More interesting than any tactical appraisal, is the fact that Simms told the media about this conversation in the first place. If I'm Chris Simms, this deal with Green Bay may be my best chance to be starting in late October. I have to admit, I'm impressed with Simms subtly. He is not out there blindly cheering for Favre nor is he staying silent on the sidelines. Instead, he provided an honest appraisal of Favre's future in Tampa in the hopes that he will better maneuver himself to colder weather so he can compete for Aaron Rodger's job.

I'm still of the opinion that Favre won't be in pewter next year, but I'm kind of impressed by Simms media savvy. He may make something of himself just yet.

Antonio Bryant - Legit or David Boston 2.0

NoahChestnut — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:53:12 -0000

Antonio Bryant could be the difference between winning 9 or 12 games next season. A solid to great #2 WR is like adding a great arm to your bullpen. It takes stress off of your rotation and allows each reliever to move down a spot. The same thing occurs with a great deuce WR. It frees up your main target, gives your TE's a little breathing space and forces defenses to stay honest and not crowd the box against the run. This is especially true for this year's Bucs as we posses one of the best offensive lines in franchise history, a stable of reliable running backs and an intelligent quarterback.

So, is Antonio Bryant the difference maker? When he was healthy, he put up some pretty gaudy numbers. But he hasn't played in over a season. What is unfortunate is no one in the media is really telling us anything.

In their recent "let's get jazzed for training camp" article, the St Pete Times called Bryant's offseason, "impressive". The Tampa Trib astutely noted that Bryant "appears to have regained his passion and hunger for the game."

Wow, that was informative. How is he handling Gruden's playbook? How has he carried himself in the locker room? Has he put in extra hours? Has he made plays that exceeded expectations? Is he getting along with the coaches? Teammates? The Media? Has his presence improved the play of Clayton/Stovall/Warren? Does he still drive expensive Italian sports cars at illegal speeds? Is he still refusing to take drug tests? You know, the basic questions.

As of this point, I have no idea if Bryant will even make the team. Some reports think that he is back to his old form. The Bradenton Herald believes that Bryant could do a great job exposing NFC defenses for Brett Favre. We won't know until the end of training camp, and even then all we will know is if he is better than our bottom feeders. Let's just say that I am tapering my expectations.

Unlike ESPN/ScoutsInc, Jeremy Green, this is the story that we should be watching. Clayton/Stovall/Hillard/Warren are not going to inspire fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. On their good days, they are mediocre slot guys. On a normal day they are either slow and/or enjoy dropping catchable balls. Bryant's quickness and ability to get open when he shouldn't be able too are what is needed to elevate the Bucs to a playoff victory.

At least he has no history of steroids like Boston. Well, I hope.

I guess I better start writing my next post, Dexter Jackson - Joey Galloway's Heir or Jacquez Green 2.0?

A Refreshing Story for a Noles Fan

NoahChestnut — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 18:59:30 -0000

After months of bad press and scandal, a story like this can really make your day. Stuart Mandel on SI.com wrote a great story about Myron Rolle's academic pursuits. While I would love to watch Myron suit up in a Bucs jersey, I am rooting for him to get the Rhodes, go to Oxford and become a leader in global health. I've always thought that he was one of our best recruits, both in terms of talent and character, over the last five years and this story proves it.

On a more serious note, I also think this story demonstrates that the student-athlete is not dead, rather it is a choice that players make. I am not saying that every footballer needs to be a 4.0 pre-med student, but it is possible to have above a 3.0 and graduate with a real degree. As the Patriots have shown, players who graduate and do well in college, turn out to be more successful in the NFL. I do believe that if Rolle does decide to turn pro, he has the potential to play with John Lynch's intellect in Ed Reed's body.

A Better Way to Divide up the NFL

NoahChestnut — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 21:33:20 -0000

Summary: The NFL's current use of geography to determine which four teams are in a division is arbitrary and should be dismantled. The NFL should consider other options for organizing the regular season schedule in order to improve the overall quality of the regular season and the playoffs. I recommend that the NFL abandons the idea of conferences in favor of an system that encourages both winning and rivalry.

A quick caveat before I go into the details of what I am proposing. I am only changing what I believe to be arbitrary rules and divisions that the NFL ascribes to. The idea of two conferences is tied to an outdated merger that has little meaning for the majority of current fans, especially younger fans who came into the game in the 1990s. I am not proposing any changes to the number of games in a season, nor how many teams go to the playoff. There are rational, though certainly not perfect, explanations for those decisions and I am not taking umbrage with them at this time.

As a fan of the Bucs, I know what it is like to have a team placed in the wrong conference. We never belonged to the NFC Central. I welcomed the switch to the NFC South where we could create our own rivals. So far it has been good, but the reorganization did not strive for greatness. It settled for a workable solution that largely confined to the previous division architecture. The recent reorganization demonstrates that geography is important. I've had more fun rooting against the Saints, Falcons and Panthers than I ever did against the Bears, Lions and Vikings.

But, you know who I really want to root against. The Jaguars and the Dolphins. Like Sean Connery in Highlander, there can be only one. The problem with the reorganization is that it did not go far enough. It was constricted by the sanctity of the American and National football conferences (Seattle did not get the memo).

Now, to the good stuff. Here is what should have happened when they decided to get rid of three divisions in each conference.

1^st. Get rid of the AFC and the NFC. This is not baseball where the AL and NL actually play by different rules. The NFL doesn't call it interleague for a good reason. No one cares when teams from different conferences meet up. Excitement before a game stems from good teams, regardless of where they hold allegiance. Conferences are used as a fallback to hype up mediocre games between weak teams.

Additionally, the conferences impede parity as shown by the dominance of the NFC in the 90s and the AFC in the 00s. This usually reduces the significance of the Superbowl by making the conference championship game the real decider of who will win it all. Now while that wasn't the case last year, I find it disheartening to know that the best two teams in the NFL usually do not play against each other in the Superbowl.

Finally, who still owes allegiance to the conferences? Do people really have AFC or NFC pride? I understand why college football values conferences because there are so many teams and you have a host of conferences actually competing against each other. This is not the case with professional football.

2^nd. Get rid of the formality of the four divisions. I emphasize the formality of them, because I do think that a lot of these divisions posses fantastic histories and dramatic rivalries. The Bears should play Green Bay each year. The Redskins should play the Cowboys. The Chiefs have to play the Broncos. But, do the Cardinals have to play the Rams? The Colts versus the Texans? Some of these games just don't make sense.

Here is what should happen.

2a) Each team has six rivalry games each year. A rival is determined based on the team's history and geography. I do think that the owners, players, coaches, press and fans should all have a say before determining a team's six rivals. Let's take Tampa as an example. For me, Tampa's six rivals should be (not in any particular order):

-Atlanta

-New Orleans

-Carolina

-Miami

-Jacksonville

-Oakland

2b) Each team plays their rival at least once in a season. The home team alternates each year for a rivalry games.

2c) The next seven games will be determined as follows. Just like with the draft, each team is ranked from one to thirty-two. Instead of creating divisions of four teams based on geography, the four team divisions will change each year depending on their success from the previous season. If you finish as one of the top four teams you are in division one. If you finish in the bottom four, you are in division eight.

You play each team in your division. The top seed gets to play at home twice, hosting both even seeds. The bottom seed gets to play on the road twice at both odd seeds. Let's take last year as an example.

New York - 1

New England - 2

Green Bay - 3

San Diego - 4

So for next season, New York would host New England and Green Bay and play on the road at San Diego. New England would host Green Bay and San Diego and play on the road at New York (Check out the following for the full breakdown, H=Home, A=Away)

1: H:2,3;A:4

2: H:3,4;A:1

3: H:4;A:1,2

4: H:1;A:2,3

Additionally, division one will then play division eight. Two will play seven and so on. This will account for seven regular season games. If a team in one of your division games also happens to be a rival, you will play that team twice. The higher seed will retain home field advantage.

This system of having the bottom division play the top division prevents all the good teams from destroying each other and allowing a bad team to sneak into the playoffs.

2d) The next two games will determined by owners agreeing to play each other. At a minimum, these agreements will last for two seasons and each team will have one home game. This option allows for additional ‘rivals' to be added and can be a great way to give fans interesting games.

2e) The final game will be determined based on record. The final game will not be scheduled before the season starts. Rather, the seventeenth week of the season will be used to help determine which bubble teams should make the playoffs. Teams that are in contention for a playoff birth will be paired against one another. At this time, I am not sure how to make this work and what to do about teams already in the playoffs and teams already out. Thoughts? Obviously, a logistics expert needs to be brought in for this.

3^rd. The top twelve teams after this season will be ranked and the top four seeds get buys. The next eight seeds play with fifth seed playing the twelfth and so on.

4^th. This system would be amazing. It comes so much closer to actually creating parity and takes away a lot of the bad games that we see in the NFL. Realistically, this system is not all that different from what we currently see. The NFL does a pretty good job of having the heavy-weight teams duke it out. New England's schedule this year demonstrates that. But, this schedule does a better job guaranteeing that top teams will play each other.

Most importantly, this system allows for more rivalry games and a more logical playoff.

Thoughts?

Manning's Knee - A Trade Opening?

NoahChestnut — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:03:29 -0000

Update: Roy Cummings of the Tampa Trib thinks Simms to the Colts is a possibility as well.

For those that don't know - Peyton had surgery to remove an infected bursa sac from his knee. What is an infected bursa sac you say? Well, as far as I can tell it looks like the tumorous head from Total Recall. The Colts are saying that Peyton will only be out for four to six weeks and will be ready to go for the start of the season.

I believe that Peyton will be ready to start the season. But, you have to think that Polian et al must be reevaluating their backups. Even if they have faith in Sorgi (who makes Adam Vinatieri look like a linebacker), they can't think that rookie Adam Tafralis is ready to go. No chance. Fortunately for us, there are not a whole lot of quarterbacks on the market or on the trading block that they Colts would want to target. I am throwing out the Favre to Indi possibility because I can't see Favre wanting to play as a backup.

So, I am going to call this right now. Chris Simms or Brian Griese will be dressed in blue and white by the start of the season. Either option is great for the Colts because these veteran quaterbacks will provide much needed competition to see if Sorgi is really ready for prime time. It also provides the Colts with a viable insurance policy if Petyon gets injured.

What can the Bucs expect from this deal? Not a ton, but maybe a fourth or fifth for Simms or a sixth for Griese.

Why is this deal better than Glenn for Simms? Well, it may not be in terms of talent, but I feel more comfortable with Simms playing in the AFC than in Dallas. I have nothing but respect for Brad Johnson, but he is too old to play for more than a couple of quarters. If we face Dallas in the playoffs, I would rather Gaines and Co had to chase down Brad than Chris.

Simms to the Boys?

NoahChestnut — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 21:27:40 -0000

Mac Engel of the Star-Telegram reports that Jerry Jones is interested in adding another Buc to back up Tony Romo.

"The name that continues to float around Valley Ranch is former Texas star Chris Simms . . . "

It appears as though head coach Garrett Wade may not be fully confident in Brad's arm.

Johnson will be 40 in September, and in the one game he saw extensive time in last season — the regular-season finale in Washington — the team witnessed that his arm is no longer what it was when he was 30. They love his mind and professionalism, but should Romo go down for as much as one game the Cowboys want a passer who can keep defensive backs honest.

This move could be great for the Bucs as rumor has it Dallas may be willing to part with Terry Glenn for Simms. I know Terry is old and injured, but I'll take my chances on an injured, aging, so-called "washed-up" Dallas receiver. I am not promising Joey's numbers, but Glenn could be a great addition to a questionable receiving corps.

Since the Cowboys really don't have anything outside of Johnson, I think a fifth round pick may also be in the mix.