I read a comment in an earlier post stating that the Vikings would have to improve their pass defense because at the time they were ranked 20th and as the writer proclaimed, "I don't think any Super Bowl winner has been ranked 20th or worse in pass defense."

This statement really aroused my curiosity, so of course I couldn't resist doing some on-line investigating. As some of you may know from a few of my past posts, I have a thing for statistics. The attached chart shows the data I gathered and provides a means of comparing the regular season defensive rankings of all Super Bowl participants since the NFL/AFL merger of 1970.

I'll let you have fun looking over the stats and maybe coming up with some of your own conclusions in the process. After the chart I have listed my conclusions and how they relate to the league standings as they are today.

OK, before I delve into the meat of the data I'd like to point out a few interesting facts:

1. There have been 8 champions that finished the regular season 1st in total defense.
2. There has only been 1 loser that finished 1st in total defense.
3. The Washington Redskins won the Super Bowl each of the 2 years there was a strike.
4. Indy won Super Bowl XLI after finishing last in the league in rush defense.
5. There have been 6 teams that finished the regular season 20th or worse in pass defense and won the Super Bowl.

Now to get back to why we're here, does defense really win championships? First let's examine what it takes to be a participant in the Super Bowl. To make things a little easier, I have divided the teams into 3 groups and listed the results as % of all participants.

Ranking of 1-10 = good defense

Ranking of 11-19 = average defense

Ranking of 20 and worse = poor defense

Super Bowl participants:

Good total defense - 76%

Average total defense - 19%

Poor total defense - 5%

Good pass defense - 51%

Average pass defense - 26%

Poor pass defense - 23%

Good rush defense - 76%

Average rush defense - 15%

Poor rush defense - 9%

As these numbers point out, for a team to make it to the Super Bowl, it is important to have a good defense. However, it seems that it is much more important to have a good rush defense than it is a pass defense.

Super Bowl winners:

Good total defense - 85%

Average total defense - 10%

Poor total defense - 5%

Good pass defense - 54%

Average pass defense - 31%

Poor pass defense - 15%

Good rush defense - 85%

Average rush defense - 13%

Poor rush defense - 2%

Looking at these numbers it is even more evident of the importance of a good defense. Again it is also evident that a good rush defense is more important than a good pass defense.

So how does this pertain to this year, and more importantly, what does it say about the Vikings chances? If the regular season were to end today, which teams would have a greater chance of making it to the Super Bowl?

Notes:

Only 6 Super Bowl participants in the last 39 games did not rank "Good" in at least one of the defensive categories. Of these 6 only 1 went on to win the game.

This tells me that if a team does not finish in the top 10 in either total defense, pass defense, or rush defense, it is highly unlikely they will win the Super Bowl.

OK, so who can we eliminate from the list above?

IND - gone

NO - gone (are you kidding me?)

ARI - gone

Remember that it was determined that a good rush defense is important. I think we can eliminate from the remaining teams those that have less than a good rush defense.

NE - gone

SD - gone

DEN - gone

Alright, who's left?

CIN - good possibility

JAX - would definitely be a surprise

DAL - eh...alright maybe could see it

MIN - you betcha

GB - they just keep hanging around

PHI - they always seem to overachieve

Well according to my calculations, one of these teams will be the next Super Bowl champion. Boy, I'll bet you haven't seen a prediction like that? The one good thing about this list is that only 2 of the teams really fit in the picture.

The Vikings and the Bengals in the Super Bowl!

This according to entertainment site TMZ.

http://www.tmz.com/2009/11/02/brett-favre-green-bay-packers-minnesota-vikings/

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As I entered my hotel Sunday afternoon there was one thing missing I had become much too accustomed to seeing at the many other home Viking/Packer games I had attended, the presence of loud obnoxious Packer fans sitting in the lobby bar. As I waited for my room to become available I continued to watch the entrance, knowing that at any minute a gang of fans dressed in green and gold would soon invade the lobby. This unexpectedly never happened. In fact, the only Packer fan I encountered before checking in was sitting right next to me, my wife. I pointed out this observation to her. She frowned.

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Well at least Goodell got this one right.

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I cannot make it to the game and rather than sell them, I am offering my season tickets for free to my brethren here at DN.

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Yes, I am a season ticket holder and no, I cannot attend the game this Friday. I would however, very much like to offer my tickets to my brethren here at DN. I would much rather give them to some of the fine people here than for the seats to sit empty.

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Those who were wanting to attend one of the great divisional rivalry games but did not think tickets would be available, you can thank Mr. Favre for giving you the opportunity to buy them on Monday. The Vikings will be removing the season ticket restriction at that time. And to those who already bought their tickets from a broker, I really feel for you, as you probably paid for a very large Favre tax. You can again thank (or cuss) Favre for that as well.

As the pile of jubilant players finally separate, the camera zooms in on the quarterback that has just led the team to their very first Super Bowl win. His name is…

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With all the talk about who will be the best option at QB for the Vikings this year and how team stats from last year compare to each other, I wondered if I could find stats showing the number of “true” three-and-outs given up by offenses and forced by defenses.

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    Now before anyone freaks out, this is just my observation. When the Wilfs bought the Vikings in 2005 for $600 million they opened their wallets and made the statement that money would not be an issue when it came to accomplishing their goal of winning the Championship. Since then, they gave unheard of money to an offensive guard while coining the phrase “poison pill”. They brought in a rival kicker that had many times broken their hearts with last second points. They welcomed a second string running back that would later show why he was worth the money by rushing for over 1,200 yards in his first season. They mortgaged a draft on a defensive end with a mullet. They gave a wad to a receiver that many questioned was even worth it. There were many others that were signed in the hopes of finally bringing the Vikings to the promised land. As I see it, the Wilfs’ “5 year plan” has been a bust.

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