SB Nation User Blog: NobleSavage

Defense wins championships; at least that’s what they say.

NobleSavage — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:34:23 -0000

I read a comment in an earlier post stating that the Vikings would have to improve their pass defense because at the time they were ranked 20th and as the writer proclaimed, "I don't think any Super Bowl winner has been ranked 20th or worse in pass defense."

This statement really aroused my curiosity, so of course I couldn't resist doing some on-line investigating. As some of you may know from a few of my past posts, I have a thing for statistics. The attached chart shows the data I gathered and provides a means of comparing the regular season defensive rankings of all Super Bowl participants since the NFL/AFL merger of 1970.

I'll let you have fun looking over the stats and maybe coming up with some of your own conclusions in the process. After the chart I have listed my conclusions and how they relate to the league standings as they are today.

SUPER BOWL		WINNER REG SEASON DEF RANK				LOSER REG SEASON DEF RANK				COMMENT*
YEAR	#	TEAM	TOTAL	PASS	RUSH	TEAM	TOTAL	PASS	RUSH

1971	V	BAL	9	21	6	DAL	4	3	10
1972	VI	DAL	3	19	2	MIA	5	6	8
1973	VII	MIA	1	5	3	WAS	4	6	7
1974	VIII	MIA	3	1	12	MIN	12	12	11
1975	IX	PIT	1	1	6	MIN	10	18	5
1976	X	PIT	4	4	8	DAL	5	8	4
1977	XI	OAK	18	23	10	MIN	6	1	17
1978	XII	DAL	1	2	3	DEN	9	25	10
1979	XIII	PIT	3	12	1	DAL	2	5	6
1980	XIV	PIT	2	10	4	LA *	7	9	10	Rams
1981	XV	OAK	11	19	5	PHI	2	5	2
1982	XVI	SF	2	3	12	CIN	12	22	9
1983 *	XVII	WAS	4	7	8	MIA	1	1	24	Strike year (9 lost games)
1984	XVIII	LA *	4	13	4	WAS	12	28	1	Raiders
1985	XIX	SF	10	17	7	MIA	19	14	22
1986	XX	CHI	1	3	1	NE	7	9	6
1987	XXI	NYG	2	19	1	DEN	9	16	5
1988 *	XXII	WAS	18	24	10	DEN	9	5	20	Strike year (1 lost game 3 scab games)
1989	XXIII	SF	3	8	3	CIN	15	10	18
1990	XXIV	SF	4	11	3	DEN	3	3	6
1991	XXV	NYG	2	6	4	BUF	8	7	15
1992	XXVI	WAS	3	9	3	BUF	27	21	24
1993	XXVII	DAL	1	5	1	BUF	12	20	2
1994	XXVIII	DAL	10	10	11	BUF	27	24	21
1995	XXIX	SF	8	17	2	SD	14	22	5
1996	XXX	DAL	3	6	2	PIT	2	5	3
1997	XXI	GB	1	7	1	NE	5	5	5
1998	XXXII	DEN	5	5	16	GB	7	8	20
1999	XXXIII	DEN	11	26	3	ATL	8	21	2
2000	XXXIV	STL *	6	20	1	TEN	17	25	10	Rams
2001	XXXV	BAL	2	8	1	NYG	5	16	2
2002	XXXVI	NE	24	24	19	STL *	3	11	3	Rams
2003	XXXVII	TB	1	1	5	OAK	11	23	3
2004	XXXVIII	NE	7	15	4	CAR	8	9	11
2005	XXXIX	NE	9	17	6	PHI	10	12	16
2006	XL	PIT	4	16	3	SEA	16	25	5
2007	XLI	IND	21	2	32 *	CHI	5	11	6	Last in the league
2008	XLII	NYG	7	11	8	NE	4	6	10
2009	XLIII	PIT	1	1	2	ARI	19	22	16

OK, before I delve into the meat of the data I'd like to point out a few interesting facts:

There have been 8 champions that finished the regular season 1st in total defense.
There has only been 1 loser that finished 1st in total defense.
The Washington Redskins won the Super Bowl each of the 2 years there was a strike.
Indy won Super Bowl XLI after finishing last in the league in rush defense.
There have been 6 teams that finished the regular season 20th or worse in pass defense and won the Super Bowl.

Now to get back to why we're here, does defense really win championships? First let's examine what it takes to be a participant in the Super Bowl. To make things a little easier, I have divided the teams into 3 groups and listed the results as % of all participants.

Ranking of 1-10 = good defense

Ranking of 11-19 = average defense

Ranking of 20 and worse = poor defense

Super Bowl participants:

Good total defense - 76%

Average total defense - 19%

Poor total defense - 5%

Good pass defense - 51%

Average pass defense - 26%

Poor pass defense - 23%

Good rush defense - 76%

Average rush defense - 15%

Poor rush defense - 9%

As these numbers point out, for a team to make it to the Super Bowl, it is important to have a good defense. However, it seems that it is much more important to have a good rush defense than it is a pass defense.

Super Bowl winners:

Good total defense - 85%

Average total defense - 10%

Poor total defense - 5%

Good pass defense - 54%

Average pass defense - 31%

Poor pass defense - 15%

Good rush defense - 85%

Average rush defense - 13%

Poor rush defense - 2%

Looking at these numbers it is even more evident of the importance of a good defense. Again it is also evident that a good rush defense is more important than a good pass defense.

So how does this pertain to this year, and more importantly, what does it say about the Vikings chances? If the regular season were to end today, which teams would have a greater chance of making it to the Super Bowl?

AFC Division Leaders	Tot DEF	Pass DEF	Rush DEF

NE	12 Average	10 Good	16 Average
CIN	6 Good	16 Average	3 Good
IND	15 Average	20 Poor	15 Average
SD	13 Average	8 Good	21 Poor
Wild Card
DEN	5 Good	5 Good	17 Average
JAX	21 Poor	26 Poor	10 Good

NFC Division Leaders
DAL	14 Average	21 Poor	9 Good
MIN	8 Good	19 Average	2 Good
NO	16 Average	18 Average	20 Poor
ARI	24 Poor	29 Poor	14 Average
Wild Card
GB	1 Good	6 Good	4 Good
PHI	9 Good	9 Good	8 Good

Notes:

Only 6 Super Bowl participants in the last 39 games did not rank "Good" in at least one of the defensive categories. Of these 6 only 1 went on to win the game.

This tells me that if a team does not finish in the top 10 in either total defense, pass defense, or rush defense, it is highly unlikely they will win the Super Bowl.

OK, so who can we eliminate from the list above?

IND - gone

NO - gone (are you kidding me?)

ARI - gone

Remember that it was determined that a good rush defense is important. I think we can eliminate from the remaining teams those that have less than a good rush defense.

NE - gone

SD - gone

DEN - gone

Alright, who's left?

CIN - good possibility

JAX - would definitely be a surprise

DAL - eh...alright maybe could see it

MIN - you betcha

GB - they just keep hanging around

PHI - they always seem to overachieve

Well according to my calculations, one of these teams will be the next Super Bowl champion. Boy, I'll bet you haven't seen a prediction like that? The one good thing about this list is that only 2 of the teams really fit in the picture.

The Vikings and the Bengals in the Super Bowl!

The exiled king of Green Bay returned to town with his own "security detail?"

NobleSavage — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:37:05 -0000

This according to entertainment site TMZ.

http://www.tmz.com/2009/11/02/brett-favre-green-bay-packers-minnesota-vikings/

Wow, who'd have ever thought that Brett Favre would need his own security detail to walk the streets of Green Bay? But then, who'd have ever thought you would hear the kind of reception he got from the Lambeau Field fans. And who'd have ever thought we Vikings fans would be cheering for him.

It kind of makes me wonder if he received threats that the team did not want the press to discuss.

Where were the Packer fans? My first-hand account.

NobleSavage — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 19:01:16 -0000

As I entered my hotel Sunday afternoon there was one thing missing I had become much too accustomed to seeing at the many other home Viking/Packer games I had attended, the presence of loud obnoxious Packer fans sitting in the lobby bar. As I waited for my room to become available I continued to watch the entrance, knowing that at any minute a gang of fans dressed in green and gold would soon invade the lobby. This unexpectedly never happened. In fact, the only Packer fan I encountered before checking in was sitting right next to me, my wife. I pointed out this observation to her. She frowned.

After cleaning up, we headed over to our favorite watering hole to see the many friends we had made throughout the years of making the annual trip. As we entered the bar I scanned the room, once again expecting a common view. Throughout the mix of Gophers, Twins, and Vikings fans, I again saw not one Packer fan. Was it too early? Having never attended a Monday night game, I thought maybe they would arrive tomorrow. I then proceeded to inform my wife of the lack of fan support. She elbowed me.

Waking the next morning in a semi haze from the previous evening, I decided to do some internet surfing. Had there been a gas tanker accident on I94 at the border? While browsing through the Trib's site I found the answer. Mike Nowakowski, part owner of a ticket broker in Minneapolis and Green Bay stated that sales for the game from their Green Bay office were down about 50 percent from a normal Vikings-Packers game at the Metrodome. He was quoted as saying, "My gut tells me that true Packers fans don't want to come to the Dome and watch Favre rip their hearts out." Ah yes, that made perfect sense. I explained this to my wife. She threw her shoe at me.

At 2:00 we decided it was time to head back to the bar for lunch and some pre-game refreshments. 5 hours til game time, but hey, we were anxious. I donned my Allen jersey and my wife donned her Kampman. As we stepped out the hotel door, again the absence of green on the streets was obvious. I explained again to my wife how the Packer fans were afraid to see Favre rip their hearts out. She kicked me in my ankle.

The bar was unusually quite as we entered. There were a few Viking fans, but no Packer fans. As we selected our barstools, I noticed a couple sitting across from us. She had a yellow sweatshirt on and he was wearing normal street clothes. Maybe they were Packer fans, but maybe not. It was too hard to tell. "I'll bet they are Packer fans, but too nervous to show it," I told my wife. She pulled my stool out as I was sitting.

2 hours til gametime, finally a group of 5 Packer fans entered the bar. "There they are! We are playing the Packers tonight!," I exclaimed to my wife as she gave me a smile that I never want to see again. The lady with the yellow sweatshirt saw the group walk in as well. She then proceeded to take off her sweatshirt, revealing a Packer shirt underneath. I turned to my wife with a proud expression of "I told you so" and she got up and headed for the door. I guess it was time to walk to the stadium.

I won't continue with our experience at the game, as everyone saw it. Sure there were many Packer fans there, and yes, they did try to start their "Go Pack GO" chant, but it did not seem to me that there were as many as usual. It was a pleasurable experience watching Favre rip out the hearts of the Packer fans in attendance. As the final time ticked off the clock, I turned to my wife and said..."I love you." She kissed me. Ah yes, all is well.

Saints bumetanide users benefit from Minnesota laws

NobleSavage — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 18:16:51 -0000

Well at least Goodell got this one right.

According to Zulgad and Scoggins from The Tribune, Goodell has decided that as long as The Williams boys are not yet suspended, Charles Grant and Will Smith, from the Saints, will not be suspended.

Here's the paragraph and the link:

With no decision appearing to be close, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said Tuesday that for now, the league has decided against enforcing the four-game suspensions of New Orleans Saints defensive ends Charles Grant and Will Smith for using bumetanide. Goodell cited the fact it would not be fair to suspend Grant and Smith while the Williamses are able to continue playing.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/59409982.html?page=1&c=y

My gift to you, Vikings vs. Dallas tickets.

NobleSavage — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 07:02:51 -0000

I cannot make it to the game and rather than sell them, I am offering my season tickets for free to my brethren here at DN.

I have 4 tickets located in section 206 row 18 that I will be giving away in pairs of 2 to anyone that would like to attend the game. I also gave my Vikings vs. Chiefs game away in the same manner to two lucky winners. To be eligible for the drawing you must be a registered member of Daily Norseman at the time of this post. Just post a comment letting me know you are interested, but please only do so if you are serious about going. The tickets will be sent via e-mail, so the winners will be asked to provide their e-mail address and their names via private e-mail after the drawing. I will be drawing the names right after the Monday night game against Houston. Oh and yes, the site's host and cowriters are also invited to participate. DN has provided me with a great outlet to express my views of the team I have followed for as long as I can remember and I can't think of better people to share this with. Good luck everyone.

Skol pa fiskande (and if anyone's wondering what that means, it's an old Swedish toast my dad used to make. It means, "Cheers to fishing".)

Season ticket holder can't go to the game.

NobleSavage — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 19:24:34 -0000

Yes, I am a season ticket holder and no, I cannot attend the game this Friday. I would however, very much like to offer my tickets to my brethren here at DN. I would much rather give them to some of the fine people here than for the seats to sit empty.

I have 4 tickets in section 206 row 18 that I will now offer to you in pairs of 2 for the low price of zero dollars. Worried about how to get them in time for the game? As a season ticket holder, I have the option of e-mailing my tickets to anyone. I have never done this before, but I believe you just print out the receipt and this is used for admission along with a picture ID. The real tickets that I have are then voided. If anyone is interested in going to the game, please let me know. To keep the numbers down and to make sure only true members participate, I will only allow members that joined before July 1 to participate. I will make the cutoff for signing up at 8:00 pm tomorrow (Wednesday) night and then randomly select 2 people and have the winners announced then. This will give you a couple of days notice on attending the game. You’ll just have to trust me on making sure this is random, however I am a very trustworthy person. Please only respond to this if you are serious about going to the game. You will not be allowed to resell these tickets, as the receipt will only have your name on it. Good luck everyone and to whoever wins, have a great game.

Single game tickets for Bears and Packers go on sale Monday

NobleSavage — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 21:10:49 -0000

Those who were wanting to attend one of the great divisional rivalry games but did not think tickets would be available, you can thank Mr. Favre for giving you the opportunity to buy them on Monday. The Vikings will be removing the season ticket restriction at that time. And to those who already bought their tickets from a broker, I really feel for you, as you probably paid for a very large Favre tax. You can again thank (or cuss) Favre for that as well.

The Minnesota Vikings Have Just Won The Super Bowl!

NobleSavage — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 15:54:28 -0000

As the pile of jubilant players finally separate, the camera zooms in on the quarterback that has just led the team to their very first Super Bowl win. His name is…

I thought it would be interesting to see how the fans really feel about who they would rather see lead the Vikings in a Super Bowl win. I have purposely left out the option “it doesn’t matter”, because I think we all would choose a Super Bowl win over our own feelings about a certain player. Please feel free to comment on your reasoning.

Poll

Who would you rather see lead the Vikes to their first Super Bowl win?

Favre

80 votes

TJ

52 votes

Sage

22 votes

Someone else

26 votes

180 votes | Poll has closed

Three-and-outs

NobleSavage — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 16:20:36 -0000

With all the talk about who will be the best option at QB for the Vikings this year and how team stats from last year compare to each other, I wondered if I could find stats showing the number of “true” three-and-outs given up by offenses and forced by defenses.

First, what is a “true” three-and out? I define this as when the offense takes the field and four plays later they punt. These stats should not include turnovers, penalties, or safeties, as these are tracked separately. A three-and out can be one of the most deflating moments in a game, not only to the team, but also to the crowd. There is no worse feeling than to watch the defense make a great stance only to have the offense come on the field and go three-and-out.

I searched, but could not find anyplace that tracked three-and-outs, so I decided to compile a few teams on my own. Of course the Vikings were my first choice. Then I thought I should choose the Super Bowl participants and a couple of the worst teams for comparison. I also chose the two best offenses. Surprisingly, neither made it to the “big show”. Finally, I chose the Jets for obvious reasons.

So without further adieu, here are the stats for “true” three and outs including how the offenses and defenses ranked at the end of the year in total yards.

Offense 3 & Outs Rank Defense 3 & Outs Rank

Denver 26 2 Pittsburg 56 1

New Orleans 28 1 Minnesota 43 6

NY Jets 32 16 New Orleans 40 23

Arizona 34 4 Oakland 37 27

Minnesota 38 17 Arizona 35 19

Pittsburg 40 22 Detroit 33 32

Oakland 55 29 NY Jets 32 16

Detroit 55 30 Denver 30 29

Take these stats for what they are, but it does seem interesting, although maybe not surprising that the best teams rank highest in three-and-outs. I think it’s also plain to see why the Steelers won the Super Bowl. Wow, 56 times the defense forced a three-and out. That averages out to 3.5 per game. Pretty impressive.

Are the signs pointing to a change in ownership?

NobleSavage — Tue, 12 May 2009 17:54:41 -0000

Now before anyone freaks out, this is just my observation. When the Wilfs bought the Vikings in 2005 for $600 million they opened their wallets and made the statement that money would not be an issue when it came to accomplishing their goal of winning the Championship. Since then, they gave unheard of money to an offensive guard while coining the phrase “poison pill”. They brought in a rival kicker that had many times broken their hearts with last second points. They welcomed a second string running back that would later show why he was worth the money by rushing for over 1,200 yards in his first season. They mortgaged a draft on a defensive end with a mullet. They gave a wad to a receiver that many questioned was even worth it. There were many others that were signed in the hopes of finally bringing the Vikings to the promised land. As I see it, the Wilfs’ “5 year plan” has been a bust.

This season has seemed completely different. No more are we seeing the cash flow freely. It’s as if their money tree has developed root rot. They did attempt to sign the “Who’s Your Mama Guy”, but gave up when their bid limit was reached. The report that they were partly to blame for the whole Cutler-Cassel fiasco was completely overshadowed by the fact that no one even knew about it until shortly before The Bears gave up the ranch for one of the top 5 QBs. Then there was the unwillingness to resign a 6 time pro-bowl center until it was too late. They also were unwilling to resign a great team player that unselfishly sacrificed personal stats at the safety position to better help the team as a whole. Now they have broken off talks for a contract extension with one of the best shutdown corners in the league. I feel a change is near.

The signs are becoming clearer. As a consequence of a poor economy, it does not appear that the Wilfs will get new stadium legislature passed at least for the next couple of years. The Vikings team remains competitive, yet is still the least valued team in the NFL. Only a new stadium will change this. I believe the Wilfs believe that they have reached a point where they will get the best value for the team if they sell now. The Vikings are now valued at around $840 million. That is a cool $240 million profit in just 4 years. What would a sale do for the Vikings and for Minnesota? While I believe Ziggy when he says that he has no intentions of moving the team, I would not put it past him selling the team to an owner that only wishes to do just that. Now these are only observations, and they may only be in my mind, but let us hope that the Vikings continue to win and they can continue to show the folks in Minnesota how much they deserve a new stadium. Long live the Minnesota Vikings!