Speaking of the rotation:  a lot of people around here were talking about how great our pitching was before the season started.  As others pointed out, we really had Lincecum, Cain, a maybe in unproven Sanchez, and a shaky pen.  Now, we're finally getting guys who are moving up from the low minors.

Next year, we are looking at Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez as being safe bets for the rotation.  We are likely to have Zito as well, unless he becomes history's highest paid mop-up man.  That leaves the following guys as possibilities for the rotation within a year or two:

Correia (RHP, 27) - decent 5th starter, but quality in the pen.  Going back to the pen would immediately improve it.
Misch (LHP, 26) - better than he has looked this year.  His WHIP is better than last year, but the HR have killed him - even a normal high HR rate would make him fine.
Lowry (LHP, 27) - can he make it back from injury?  I doubt it, but I had to list him.

Bumgarner (LHP, 18!) - see above.  The real deal, it looks like.
Sosa (RHP, 22) - quality.  Needs to be in AA at this point.
English (LHP, 23) - only Bumgarner has a better K rate.  Needs to be in AA as well.
Alderson (RHP, 19!) - pretty good K rate, ok K/BB for such a youngster.  At 19, already pushed a bit in high A.
Snyder (LHP, 22) - decent to good K rate, excellent K/BB.
Pucetas (RHP, 23) - ok K rate, good K/BB.
Martinez (RHP, 25) - a bit old, but at least in AA.  Excellent ERA but weak K rate.

Correia and Misch could be 5th starters anywhere, and Correia has already proven himself a fine reliever.  Lowry looks done, but maybe he comes back from injury and can strike guys out.  Maybe.  Probably not.  Why didn't we trade him earlier?

The remaining 7 are guys that seem to have a legitimate chance to make the majors.  Bumgarner has more than a chance - as the top 2007 draft pick, he will get a shot as a major league starter if he isn't injured.  I'm not saying that all 7 will make it.  I would be happy to see Bumgarner as a #3 or better starter and one other guy from the list being a legitimate #3 or #4 starter.  After that, maybe a swingman/#5 starter or two and those guys with the rest going into the bullpen pool, with maybe a couple making it.

To get three legitimate starters out of that group would be a haul; to get four or five that look like they could be legitimate starters out of that group into AA or AAA would be sweet trade bait.  For the guys that don't make it as starters, you have a nice pool of potential relievers that 1) keep you from having to create a waiver wire/FA bullpen, 2) provides more trade bait, and 3) possibly improves our shaky pen - not to mention having depth at AAA that beats Messenger and Munter.

If that group turns out better, then you have REAL options.  What would Cain bring in trade?  What would Sanchez bring?  What would Bumgarner or Alderson - even cheaper and under the team's control for more years - bring in a year or two?  These are guys who will bring you bats.

I think that Sosa, English, Pucetas, and Snyder all need to be pushed, though.  At 22 or 23 years of age, they aren't going to look like real prospects for long in A ball.  You can't just put any 20 year old in AA and pretend that he's a star prospect when he's overmatched (I'm looking at you, Mets and Yankees), but these guys need to be promoted a level to make them look better as trade bait.

Your thoughts?  And also, a poll!

Continuing from my other diary, here's the OF:

Left Field

Barry Bonds
07: $15.8m plus bonuses (probably will end up with $19.3m)
2007 Line:  .280/.497/.590
Since ASB:  .234/.451/.594

Remember when it was unclear whether Bonds had enough in the tank to come back, play a full season, and break the record?  Well he did, he does, and when he is in the lineup, he is the best hitter in baseball.  Still.  At age 43.  Now Barry isn't the most valuable hitter in baseball, as he needs a fair bit of time off, but by rate, he is still the best, whether by OPS, OPS+, Runs Created - pick one.  Is he worth $19.3m?  Well, probably by the end of the season, but his pecuniary value to the Giants is so much greater.  Say what you will about the circus, about needing to get younger, etc, but Bonds should be back next year.  There is no impact bat this side of Alex Rodriguez with which the team could replace Bonds.  He is a force, and there aren't enough FA bats to make up for it.  Even if the team were to get equivalent production out of multiple players, it would cost more than Bonds!  The fan in me wants Barry back, but the analyst in me confirms that it is a good idea.

Center Field

Dave Roberts
07:$5M, 08:$6.5M, 09:$6.5M
2007 Line:  .266/.333/.364
Since ASB:  .344/.406/.417

Speed ages well, but was Dave Roberts so integral to the success of this ballclub that he was worth signing through 2009?  Granted, Roberts has been injured this year, hurting his performance, but then again, old players get injured.  Also, Roberts's entire game is speed, so one bad hammy and he's done.  Dave's strong second half is inching him back to his career line, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him above his career numbers before the season is done.  Unfortunately, he is exactly the kind of player this team doesn't need.  His defense is about average, he is blocking young players, and at the very least he keeps Winn's better defense and CF bat stuck in RF.  Dave's contract is fine IF he is a starter, but he is overpaid as a backup.  He has to go.  Or Winn has to go.  Or both have to go.

Rajai Davis
Minimum Salary
2007 Line:  .271/.357/.354
Since ASB:  .429/.524/.600
With SFG.:  .440/.548/.640 (!!11!!1!11!! ok in 31 PA)

Rajai's best attribute is his speed.  Actually, for the Giants, his best attribute is that he hits righthanded and can play CF.  In his age 26 season, Davis will turn 27 in October, and his career minor-league line is .305/.375/.407.  He can take a walk, he can hit for a little average, and he can FLY.  What he doesn't have is power.  The reviews on his defense are mixed, but he certainly has the speed to make up for bad routes.  What we have to hope for here is that the Pirates are stupid and didn't know what they had, but don't be fooled by the crazy post ASB small sample numbers.  He isn't that good.  He will likely stick around as a backup OFer because Lewis and Roberts can't hit lefties.

Right Field

Randy Winn
07:$4M, 08:$8M, 09:$8.25M
2007 Line:  .292/.346/.414
Since ASB:  .325/.384/.447

Randy Winn is awesome.  OK, Randy Winn is average.  OK, so maybe I just like Randy Winn.  Winn's RF defense is above-average, but no so much that you like his bat in RF.  Winn should be playing CF, where his bat would be fine.  Winn is about a league-average hitter - maybe better because his OPS is OBP-heavy - but you don't want him in RF.  Basically, here's the problem:  we talk about a hypothetical team of 9 Randy Winns putting up 5.2 runs per game (yes, his RC/27 is 5.2).  The issue is not that a team of 9 Randy Winns wouldn't average 5.2 runs per game.  The issue is that the real team has a pitcher batting ninth, Pedro Feliz, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel, Dave Roberts, and Bengie Molina in it.  Because you aren't going to get Randy Winn production from all of the other positions, you need someone much better than Randy Winn to make up for the crappy parts of the lineup.  Winn is earning his salary this year, but again, he blocks young guys, and his contract is a waste on the bench.  We can't trade Randy Winn, you say?  He has a no-trade clause?  See how fast he waives it when you tell him he will be sitting on the bench.  Winn would be perfect for the Reds.  I like Randy Winn, but Dave Roberts and Randy Winn should not be starters on the same team.  At minimum, one needs to go.  Preferably, both need to go.

Fred Lewis
Minimum Salary
2007 Line:  .275/.356/.401
Since ASB:  .257/.350/.286 (40 PA)

Free Fred Lewis!  Fred Lewis may not be better than Randy Winn, but he is cheaper.  Plus, according to UZR, his defense is 4-5 runs better.  Yeah, he looks bad, but he is very fast, and speed makes up for bad routes.  Unfortunately, Lewis can't hit LHP - not in the minors, not in the majors.  Lewis and Rajai Davis could make a fine platoon.  Lewis and Winn could make a fine platoon as well - Winn, despite being a lefty-masher, is pretty crappy against RHP.  I should have mentioned that in Winn's section.  Between his minor league numbers and his major league numbers, Lewis has proven that he can play.  In the absence of a star RF acquisition, Lewis should be playing, and even then, Lewis should probably be in CF with Davis.

Nate Schierholtz
Minimum Salary
2007 Line:  .325/.349/.400
2007 AAA.:  .322/.358/.531

Schierholtz doesn't walk much, so his OBP is low for his AVG.  He also doesn't hit for a ton of power, and what is there is mostly in the form of doubles.  His advantages:  unlike our other OF prospects, he is actually a prospect - age 23, compared to Lewis and Davis at 27 and 26.  Also, unlike most of our other OFers, he doesn't show much platoon split, so he shouldn't be a liability against LHP.  That said, I am not high on Schierholtz.  He can't really play CF and he doesn't have the power for RF.  Sure, a .531 SLG is nothing to sneeze at, but that is going to be a sub-.500 SLG in the majors.  I say leave him in AAA and try to develop some power, because without it, he isn't going to be a long-term answer in RF.

Other Minor League help:

Dan Ortmeier:  sure, he is in the majors, but why?  He is a bit of a lefty-masher, solid in the field, and has a little speed.  Decent backup, I suppose.

Clay Timpner, John Bowker, Eddy Martinez-Esteve, Eugenio Velez:  read Steve's Minor Lines.  Actually, Timpner kills RHP but can't hit LHP at all.  We have a lot of bad platoon splits in the system.

Well, watching the team isn't very fun right now, so I decided to run down the roster and take a look at performance and contracts.  I am on record as saying that Sabean didn't put together a horrible team this year.  Not a great team, but certainly not horrible.  The team's actual record is 49-66, but its pythagorean record based on Runs Scored and Runs allowed is 55-60, even with the poor performances.  Unfortunately for Sabean and for us, no one has had a career year, and every one of the vets save Randy Winn has completely tanked.  It was foreseeable that the team wouldn't win 90 games, but it wasn't exactly reasonable to think they would be this bad.  With that in mind, on to the players, by position:

Catcher

Bengie Molina
07:$4M, 08:$6M, 09:$6M (plus some bonuses)
2007 Line:  .272/.294/.416
Since ASB:  .244/.269/.400

Oh my.  Catcher is not a position that ages well, and yet, Sabean signed Molina through 2009 despite having little competition.  Bengie's early season heroics aside, he hasn't hit well, and it isn't his home park (.739 home OPS, .680 road OPS).  This is ugly and unlikely to get better as Bengie goes into his age 33 and 34 seasons.  Awful signing, and the team will either have to eat the $6m Bengie is owed each of the next two seasons or just have a catcher who sucks.  That would be easier to do if the team didn't suck at many other positions.

Eliezer Alfonzo, Guillermo Rodriguez
Minimum salary or close to it for both.

Serviceable backups.  Nothing to see here.  This is Alfonzo's job when he returns.

Minor League Help:  Justin Knoedler.  Nothing to indicate he will be much better or worse than Alfonzo and Rodriguez.

First Base

Ryan Klesko
07: $1.5M, with additional $0.25M donated to Klesko's foundation
2007 Line:  .266/.355/.415
Since ASB:  .202/.290/.281

The good news is that Klesko is a FA at the end of the season.  It seems as if opposing teams has figured out that Klesko no longer has HR power, so they go right after him, and he can't do anything with the pitches.  He was a nice FA flyer, but Lance Niekro might be a better choice at this point, especially against LHP.  Klesko will be gone after this season, so look forward to a FA signing of...  uhhh...  Kevin Millar?  Ok, maybe not.  1B for the Giants next year will either be manned by a converted OFer or someone acquired by trade, or both.  I would like to see the Giants get the Phillies to eat a chunk of Pat Burrell's salary and put him at 1B.  If not, just pay Pat the Bat's $14m for next year and clear the $$ for 2009.

Rich Aurilia
07:$3.5M, 08:$4.5M
2007 Line:  .253/.299/.273
Since ASB:  .262/.326/.381 (in 46 PA)

Aurilia at 3B was one thing.  Aurilia at 1B is entirely another.  Also, why did Sabean sign Aurilia for two years?  At any rate, it isn't just his home park that is killing him, as Aurilia is worse on the road than at home.  FWIW, Aurilia has battled injuries this year.  At any rate, the team hasn't exactly missed him, and now they get to pay him $4.5m next year for no apparent reason.  Trade Aurilia?  Heh.  Good luck.

Minor League Help:  Lance Niekro.  I know, Niekro isn't much "help," but have you seen the numbers for the other guys?  Maybe he can mash some lefties.

Second Base

Ray Durham
07:$7M, 08:$7.5M
2007 Line:  .230/.306/.365
Since ASB:  .167/.261/.250 (!!)

Congratulations, Ray, you are the 2007 San Francisco Giants LVP!  Remember the 2006, 127 OPS+ bundle of power-hitting awesome that was the Sugahman?  The sweetness is gone.  Ray sucks at home, on the road, as a LHB, as a RHB - complete suck.  His defense is subpar, he no longer has speed, he no longer has power.  Is he hurt?  Let's hope so, because his $7.5m salary means that nobody will want him.  He could get traded in the offseason, but the team may have to eat some salary.

Kevin Frandsen
Minimum Salary
2007 Line:  .219/.280/.281
Since ASB:  .127/.155/.127

In case you are wondering why Durham is still in the lineup, Frandsen's line provides some clues.  Still, Free Kevin Frandsen!  With the season lost, it is long past time to give Frandsen a chance to get regular ABs at a regular position.  His minor league numbers say that he is better than this and he lacks the alarming K rates of Todd Linden.  Frandsen may not be the answer, but no one else in the organization is either.  Pencil him in at 2B every day, Bochy.

Minor League Help:  None.  (Come on - Bergolla and Ochoa?  That isn't "help")

Third Base

Pedro Feliz
07: $5.1m plus some bonuses for PA
2007 Line:  .254/.293/.425
Since ASB:  .311/.357/.481 (!)

Is Pedro Feliz the most predictable guy in baseball?  His line is basically the same every year.  Don't be fooled by the second half numbers.  Pedro is 32 years old, and although he may put up a career year, he isn't going to be substantially a different player than he is now.  He won't learn to hit the slider.  He won't learn patience.  That doesn't mean he isn't a useful player, as he is a great fielder - no - an EXCELLENT fielder.  The best in baseball at 3B, Feliz actually saves countless runs.  OK, we can count them, actually.  Given that the going rate for marginal wins in MLB is about $2.5m per, Feliz has outperformed his salary (3.2 WARP so far!).  Does this mean that Feliz should get a $9-$10m contract for next year?  Probably not on this offense-challenged team, but keeping Feliz in his old supersub backup role would be a good move - brilliant 3B, great 1B, passable OF, SS in a pinch?  Why not?  His numbers against LHP are pretty decent too.  Mike Lowell would be a fine replacement, but not for 3 years, ok Sabean?

Backups:  see Aurilia and Frandsen

Minor League Help:  Justin Leone.  Leone isn't very good, but he probably isn't much worse than Feliz.  Remember, we need upgrades.

Shortstop

Omar Vizquel
07:$4M ($0.1m bonus for Gold Glove)
2007 Line:  .256/.310/.315
Since ASB:  .314/.381/.373

Nearly at the end of a brilliant career, Omar looked for all the world like he had tumbled straight off the cliff this season.  Fortunately for Omar, the team has no viable alternative at SS.  Let's say that again:  the Giants have no viable alternative for a 40-year-old SS.  Dreamy will be a reasonable defensive SS until age 60, but his defense would need to be at Adam Everett-type levels to justify having his bat in the lineup.  Sure, if the team gets two big bats to go with Bonds next year then maybe Omar would be ok, but when you realize that one of the OF spots is probably going to be Winn, Lewis, or Schierholtz, that there is no top offensive 2Bman available, that Feliz may be back, that 1B may not be that great... what's the point?  Unfortunately, David Eckstein is probably the top SS FA after this season.  We're going to suck next year.

Backup:  Frandsen, who can't really play SS.  Aurilia can't play SS anymore either.

Minor League Help:  heh.  Bergolla?  Ochoa?  De la Rosa?  That other guy?  So none.  We are a good two-three years away from Burriss or Bocock.

From foxsports.com

"Throughout this season, I have watched Barry Bonds' pursuit of the home run record. Now that he is on the verge of tying the record, the time has come to announce that I will make every attempt to attend the record-setting moment," Selig said in a statement Tuesday.

"Out of respect for the tradition of this game, the magnitude of the record, and the fact that all citizens in this country are innocent until proven guilty, I will attend Barry Bonds' next games to observe his potential tying and breaking of the home run record, subject to my commitments to the Hall of Fame this weekend."

Bud will be in Cooperstown for the HOF induction ceremony on Sunday.  If Bonds hasn't broken the record by then, I expect him to be off on Sunday.

During a recent game, I got pissed off about having to see Cammy Blackstone yet again on an FSN broadcast, so I dashed off a lawyerly-like email to FSN complaining about her.  And hey, I actually received a response:

Dear Mr. Stamm:

Thank you for your recent comments regarding our station in general and our coverage of San Francisco Giants games in particular.

A decision was made in the off-season to try a roving reporter  at a select number (12) of San Francisco Giants home games.  The idea is to show some of the sights and sounds of the ballpark and interview some fans having fun at the game.  We selected lifelong Giants fan and local (KFRC) radio personalty Cammy Blackstone.  Some fans have enjoyed Cammy's reports, many other - like yourself - have not.

We appreciate your feedback and will take your comments in mind when we re-evaluate our game coverage strategy at the All-Star break and at the end of the season.

Again, thank you for taking the time to tell us what you think about our broadcasts of San Francisco Giants baseball.  Your opinion is very important to us.

Regards

So... who are these people who enjoyed Cammy?  I think they are made up.  Anyway, the line that caught my attention was the one about the decision to "re-evaluate our game coverage strategy" at the All-Star break.  Important stuff, because now, more than ever, you guys need to send your complaint emails to FSN to ensure that Cammy goes away for good.

I just went to FSN Bay Area's website and clicked on "Contact Us" to send my email.  They read them, so barrage their inbox with complaints.  You owe it to yourself and to every Giants fan to get rid of Cammy.  Go to it.

I don't know if this has been posted or noticed, but ESPN.com's Jonah Keri has an article on the site's Page 2 that links to Grant's Onion parody.

Here's the link

With the draft coming up, I thought I would take a look at the draft history of the Giants from 1985-2003 through three general managers:  Al Rosen, Bob Quinn, and Brian Sabean.

I put together a list of the notable players taken each year, the Giants' first-round draft picks (including sandwich picks), and some notes about the draft and players that we missed out on.  Here we go:

Al Rosen, 1985-1992
1985:
Will Clark (1st Round)
Jeff Brantley (6th)
Trevor Wilson (8th)
Dennis Cook (18th)
First Round:  Will Clark (2nd pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Barry Bonds, Pirates (6th pick)
Notes:  this was a great draft:  Four guys who stayed in the majors, including a superstar.  
1986:
Matt Williams (1st)
Kirt Manwaring (2nd)
First Round:  Matt Williams (3rd pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Gary Sheffield, Brewers (6th pick)
Note:  6 more guys made the majors from this draft, but none had much of a career.  It helps when you draft so high:  Williams was the 3rd overall pick after getting Clark 2nd in 1985.
1987:
Mike Remlinger (1st)
Mike Benjamin (3rd)
Gil Heredia (9th)
First Round:  Mike Remlinger (16th pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Ken Griffey Jr, Mariners (1st overall pick) (Honorable Mention:  Craig Biggio, Astros (22nd pick)
Notes:  Remlinger was a good pitcher for a long time, Heredia was a serviceable starter for a while.  Mike Benjamin wasn't great, but he was in the majors for quite some time, which is something.
1988:
First Round:  Royce Clayton (1st, 15th pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Robin Ventura, White Sox (10th pick)
Notes:  That's it.  6 more guys made the majors, none were any good.  To be fair, this wasn't a great draft year.
1989:
Pat Rapp (15th)
First Round:  Steve Hosey (14th pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Frank Thomas, White Sox (7th pick)
Notes:  terrible draft.  Pat Rapp wasn't even very good.
1990:
Mike Myers (4th) (later lost in Rule 5 draft)
First Round:  Adam Hyzdu (15th pick), Eric Christopherson (19th pick), Marcus Jensen (33rd pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Chipper Jones, Braves (1st overall pick)
Notes:  yet another terrible draft.  Jeromy Burnitz, Mike Mussina, Steve Karsay, and Rondell White were all taken after Hyzdu, all but Burnitz after Christopherson.  You can really see the groundwork being laid for the 1994-1996 struggles.
1991:
William Van Landingham (5th)
First Round:  Steve Whitaker (33rd pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Manny Ramirez, Indians (13th pick)
Worst Player Drafted in First Round:  Brien Taylor, Yankees (1st overall, total bust)
Notes:  with no pick until 33, and no 2nd or 3rd round pick, not much of a chance in this draft.  Giant-killer Bobby Jones was taken 3 picks after Whitaker; Scott Hatteberg was 43rd
1992:
Marvin Benard (50th!!)
Aaron Fultz (6th)
Doug Mirabelli (5th)
First Round:  Calvin Murray (7th pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Derek Jeter, Yankees (6th - one pick before Giants)
Notes:  Not bad to get value from lower (and 50th) round picks.  Calvin Murray was taken before first-rounders Preston Wilson, Michael Tucker, Shannon Stewart, Rick Helling, Jason Kendall, Charles Johnson, and Johnny Damon.
Notes:  The last gasp for Al Rosen - despite getting Will Clark and Matt Williams (as 2nd and 3rd overall picks), Rosen didn't draft particularly well, did he?

Bob Quinn, 1993-1996
1993:
Bill Mueller (15th round)
Chris Singleton (2nd)
First Round: Steve Soderstrom (6th overall pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Alex Rodriguez, Mariners (1st overall)
Notes:  not a good draft, with the exception of Bill Mueller.  Trot Nixon (7th), Billy Wagner (11th), Derrek Lee (14th), Chris Carpenter (15th), Torii Hunter (20th), Jason Varitek (21st) were all taken after Soderstrom.  So was Scott Rolen in the 2nd round, two picks before Singleton.
1994:
Keith Foulke (9th)
Bobby Howry (5th)
JD Drew (did not sign, 20th)
First Round:  Dante Powell (22nd pick), Jacob Cruz (32nd pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Nomar Garciaparra, Red Sox (12th)
Notes:  Powell and Cruz never panned out, but few players taken after them in the 1st and 2nd round amounted to much.  Jay Payton is the best, as Troy Glaus did not sign after being taken with the third pick of the second round.
1995:
Russ Ortiz (4th)
Joe Nathan (6th)
Toby Hall (did not sign, 24th)
Brad Lidge (did not sign, 42nd)
First Round: Joe Fontenot (16th pick, at least was trade bait - Roy Halladay was the very next pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Todd Helton, Rockies (8th pick)
Notes:  While Russ Ortiz isn't great now, you can't complain about getting a player like that in the 4th round.  Also, to get two quality major-leaguers out of one draft really isn't bad at all.  Carlos Beltran went three picks after the Giants' 2nd round pick, Jason Brester, who went nowhere.
1996:
Mike Caruso (2nd, at least was trade bait)
Ryan Jensen (8th)
First Round: Matt White (7th pick, total bust)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Eric Chavez, Athletics (10th pick)
Notes:  The Giants got nothing from this draft, really.  Also, Quinn did not have a single impact first-round pick while he was GM.  A big 0-5 with first rounders.  He also missed out on Jimmy Rollins from his own back yard, taken 4 picks after Caruso.

Brian Sabean, 1997-Present
1997:
Jason Grilli (1st)
Scott Linebrink (4th)
First Round:  Grilli (4th pick), Dan McKinley (49th pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Vernon Wells, Blue Jays (5th pick) or Lance Berkman, Astros (16th pick)
Notes:  Thus starts the Sabean era.  Grilli ended up being good trade fodder, but Wells was taken one pick later.  Berkman and Jon Garland also were taken later.  Linebrink was a nice 2nd rounder.
1998:
Uhhh... Ryan Vogelsong (5th)
First Round:  Tony Torcato (19th pick), Nate Bump (25th pick), Arturo McDowell (29th pick), Chris Jones (38th pick), Jeff Urban (41st pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  JD Drew, Cardinals (5th overall pick)
Notes:  Wow.  Five picks out of the first 41, nine of the first 128, and nothing.  Seven guys from this made the majors.  Unfortunately, those guys were Torcato, Bump, Chris Magruder, Vogelsong, Doug Clark, Cody Ransom, and Erasmo Ramirez.  At least Bump and Vogelsong made for decent trade fodder, and Vogelsong might have been something if he had been able to stay healthy.  CC Sabathia was taken one pick after Torcato; Brad Wilkerson and Aaron Rowand were taken 33rd and 35th.  Adam Dunn and Brandon Inge were taken in the 2nd.  Despite the number of picks, though, there wasn't a ton of talent that slipped past Sabean.  This wasn't the best draft year.
1999:
Kurt Ainsworth (1st)
Jerome Williams (1st)
Jack Taschner (2nd)
First Round:  Ainsworth (24th pick), Williams (39th)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Barry Zito, Athletics (9th pick)
Notes:  Not bad.  Between Williams and Taschner, Brian Roberts (50th pick), Carl Crawford (52nd), and John Lackey (68th) were chosen.  Justin Morneau and Hank Blalock went in the 3rd round; Nate Robertson went in the 5th - a lot of teams missed there.
2000:
Boof Bonser (1st)
Lance Niekro (2nd)
Jason Ellison (22nd)
First Round:  Boof Bonser (21st pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Chase Utley, Phillies (15th)
Notes:  Waiting for Boof, indeed.  Utley, Adrian Gonzalez (1st overall), and, arguably, Rocco Baldelli (6th overall) are the only players better than Boof taken in the 1st round.  Adam Wainwright, Aaron Heilman, and Kelly Johnson were taken later.  Grady Sizemore and Chris Young (the pitcher) were taken in the 3rd.  Ellison may not be that good, but that was a nice 22nd round pick.
2001:
Brad Hennessey (1st)
Noah Lowry (1st)
Todd Linden (1st)
Jesse Foppert (2nd)
Justin Knoedler (5th)
Scott Munter (47th)
First Round:  Hennessey (21st pick), Lowry (30th pick), Linden (41st pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Joe Mauer, Twins (1st overall, one pick before Mark Prior)
Notes:  Nice draft!  OK, so the Giants missed out on David Wright, taken 38th.  But the Giants didn't pick until 21st, and they have a #3 type starter on the team, a solid reliever, now closer, on the team, a guy who looked like a real major-league pitcher before his injuries (Foppert) that they were able to trade with Torrealba for Winn, a 5th rounder who could be a backup C in MLB now, and a guy who has at least had a bit of MLB time in the 47th round.  Not bad.  Linden, unfortunately, looked like a real player.  Maybe he can turn it around.  Dan Haren was taken two picks before Foppert.  Ryan Howard went in the 5th round.
2002:
Matt Cain (1st)
Fred Lewis (2nd)
Dan Ortmeier (3rd)
Kevin Correia (4th)
Clay Hensley (8th)
First Round:  Cain (25th pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Prince Fielder, Brewers, (7th pick), or Nick Swisher, Athletics (16th pick), or Cole Hamels, Phillies (17th pick).  Cain is close.
Notes:  Ahh, the famous Moneyball draft.  Hands down, a great draft for the Giants.  Cain is an amazing pick at #25, Fred Lewis is performing well for the big club, as is Ortmeier.  Correia and Hensley were excellent picks.  Misses?  Curtis Granderson went in the 3rd round, but before Ortmeier.  Rich Hill went in the 4th round before Correia.
2003:
David Aardsma (1st)
Nate Schierholtz (3rd)
Billy Sadler (6th)
Pat Misch (7th)
Brian Wilson (24th)
First Round:  Aardsma (22nd pick), Roger Whitaker (34th pick)
Best Player Drafted in First Round:  Rickie Weeks, Brewers (2nd overall pick)
Notes:  We're really getting into "too soon to tell" territory here.  Chad Billingsley was taken 2 picks after Aardsma.  Carlos Quentin, Matt Murton, and Adam Jones were taken after Aardsma as well.  Wilson and Sadler have both been up.  Aardsma wasn't traded for much, but he has had some major-league success.  Misch is close to a callup, as is Schierholtz, who may be the best of the bunch.

It is really too soon to tell for any draft after 2003, but there are some highlights.  Kevin Frandsen has already stuck with the big club after being a 12th round pick in 2004, while Jonathan Sanchez shows great promise after having been taken in the 27th round in the same year.  The Giants had no 1st rounder in 2004, so Eddy Martinez-Esteve was the first pick that year in the 2nd round.

2005 is the infamous draft-pick punting year, and the Giants didn't pick until Benj Copeland in the 4th round.  Sergio Romo in the 28th round may prove to be the best pick for Sabean that year.

2006:
Tim Lincecum (1st)
Best Player Drafted in the First Round:  Tim Lincecum, Giants (10th pick).
Notes:  That's all you need to know.  Burriss?  Tanner?  Bocock?  When you get a player like Lincecum, anything else is gravy.  Great draft.

Thoughts?  How does Sabean stack up against our former GMs?  Al Rosen did draft Will Clark and Matt Williams, but drafting is usually a lot easier when you are picking #2 and #3 overall in a draft.

Lincecum's dad discusses the development of Tim's mechanics.

MLB.com has a piece today predicting the top 10 picks.

1.  Tampa:  David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt
   
2.  Kansas City:  Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep (NJ)
   
3.  Chicago Cubs:  Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS (CA)
   
4.  Pittsburgh:  Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson
   
5.  Baltimore:  Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
   
6.  Washington:  Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Ecole du Versant Gatineau (Quebec) (hey, he would be great on the Expos... oh wait..)
   
7.  Milwaukee:  Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS (IN)
   
8.  Colorado:  Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS (CA)
   
9.  Arizona:  Mike Moustakas, SS/3B, Chatsworth HS (CA) (what is going on at Chatworth High?)
   
10. San Francisco:  Andrew Brackman, RHP, NC State

Baseball-Reference.com has added 2007 minor league stats for each organization and each level.

Giants batting

Giants pitching

Stats for the entire organization at your fingertips.  Love BB-Ref.  Love it.

I have been trying to keep up this list, and I think it is complete.  Just in case, check to see if you should be there but aren't.

Also:  we need someone to take the donations and make this stuff happen.  Hopefully, someone well-known and trustworthy will step up and volunteer (someone in/near SF?).  I believe the favorite gift idea is now 1/2 to the Junior Giants, 1/2 to a gift certificate to the Giants dugout store, so the poll is an up/down vote on it.

Here is the list:

E - $25
Nick Schulte - $21
SFFaninNYC - $20
Stuttering John Tamargo - $20
McCormick22 - $20
FavoriteSpring - $20
Dan from NM $20
NSCEGF - $20
Mayor - $20
Sularz - $20
Kid Fresh - $20 (possible exchange rate issues - hah!)
Victor Frankenstein - $20
sfgreg - $20
GiantsCatcher - $20
huro1010 - $20
Walrus Man - $20
Kitspool - $20
mxmob - $20 (in Sabean fashion)
tk - $20
squirrel - $20
out machine - $20
Giant Jim - $20
Goofus - $20
redhornet78 - (variable - +++ hookers and blow!)
Senor Vegas $15
Gordo - $15
Baron - $10
MeSoKrabby - $10
LunaticFridge - $10
PacBellBoozer - $10 (plus beer!)
Irwin - $10
wjackalope - $10
Natto - $10
Brother Bummer - $10
Evan - $10
Poe - $10
Doug - $10
groug - $10
jponry - $10
howtheyscored - $10
SF Pete - $10
GIDP - $10 (at the whim of Social Security)
NearestNorwich - $10
hairball - $10
Aadik - $10
hometownboy - $10
stress - $10
Brute - $10
CystedTwister - $10

Total - $726

Baseball-Reference.com has a new feature, and it rocks.  Right now it is still free, but soon it will be part of the paid portion of BBRef - don't worry, the basic BBRef stuff will still be free.

Anyway, go to BBRef and look up a player.  Scroll down to the batting stats header, and you will see a link called "Neutralize Stats" (it's red).  Click on it, and it changes the player's stats thusly:  "All seasons are converted to 162-game seasons & avg. team scoring of 750 runs (4.63/game)

But then, new drop downs appear, so you can select first year, then league, and then park w/park factor.  Do you want to put Barry's career in 2000 Coors Field?  Well go ahead!  Look!  993 HR!  A career line of .360/.512/.733!  A 1.043 SLG in 2001!  Good times.

You can put 2000 Pedro Martinez in 1968 Dodger Stadium.  You can put Willie Mays in 2006 AT&T Park.  Babe Ruth in 2006 Yankee Stadium.  Jose Uribe in the 1908 Polo Grounds.  Whatever.

This is tons of fun.

Schulman on Bochy and the running game:

"I would like to have our guys play their game," Bochy said. "I don't want to change the game because we do have Barry in the cleanup hole. You get to the point of diminishing returns sometime when you try to force the issue. If we think now is the time to run or hit-and-run, we're going to play the game. You can't sit back and wait on one guy or two guys."

He is talking about Roberts and Vizquel, the projected 1-2 in the order.  Roberts has a career 80.5% SB success rate (49 SB 6 CS last year - 89%!).  Vizquel is 71% lifetime and 77% last year.

Basically, this is a good idea with Roberts if he steals at his career success rate, and even better if he steals at last year's rate.  Vizquel probably needs to be at last year's rate and not his career rate.

At least it seems like Bochy is concerned about avoiding the GIDP, which is good.

Dan Szymborski has ZiPS projections for the Giants' returnees and acquisitions:

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Player        AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Aurilia-----389   47  109  23  1  13  58  33  53   1  .280  .336  .445
Durham---451   70  122  26  4  16  64  51  60   5  .271  .348  .452      
Feliz-------515   65  129  29  3  18  74  31  91   1  .250  .293  .423
Roberts---435   70  122  19  9   3  37  46  55  33  .280  .350  .386

People have been unsure about whether the minimum salary reduction rules for arbitration apply to free agents.  I understood that the rule did not apply, which makes sense, because why would you not be able to reduce the FA's salary when another signing team could?  To be sure, I did some lawyering and dove into the basic agreement.

This is from the 2002-2006 Basic Agreement, but I doubt it has changed.  Article VI covers arbitration, and there is even a section there about "Exceptions to the Maximum Salary Reduction."  But it isn't in there.

It is in "Article XX - Reserve System, Section B -  Free Agency, Subsection (3) - Rights of Former Club to Sign Free Agent"

Excerpt:

"If the Player accepts the offer to arbitrate, he shall be a signed player for the next season and the parties will conduct a salary arbitration proceeding under Article VI, provided, however, that the rules concerning maximum salary reduction set forth in Article VI shall be inapplicable and the parties shall be required to exchange figures on the last day established for the exchange of salary arbitration figures under Article VI." (Emphasis mine)

So there you go.  It doesn't apply.

Here's the link.

And here's the relevant part:

Pedro Feliz, San Francisco Giants
160 Games, 22/98 HR/RBI 33/112 BB/K .244/.281/.428 AVG/OBP/SLG .709/79 OPS/OPS+

My goodness! Feliz just makes all the rest look so pedestrian, doesn't he? Last year's winner proved once again to be no suitable replacement for Barry Bonds. Indeed, we might even have to consider Pedro Feliz to be the anti-Barry Bonds. Whereas Bonds walks almost to a fault, Feliz refuses to walk almost to the same extent.

Here is an interesting way to think about Pedro Feliz's season: Juan Pierre may be the lightest hitter in baseball, finishing the season with 3 homeruns. Nevertheless, Juan Pierre's OPS was higher that Pedro Feliz's.

It defies logic that a player could finish a season with 22 homeruns, 35 doubles, and 98 RBI and still have an OPS of .708. These are truly numbers than only Dave Kingman could rival.

For that reason, it is truly my pleasure and my honor to announce that, for the second year in a row, the winner of the Dave Kingman Award is none other than Pedro "The Secret Weapon" Feliz.

Hey guys.  You probably read my rambling analysis in Grant's Manny Ramirez post.  A self-described "rabid Giants fan" named Dave Nemetz from bleacherreport.com also read it, and as you may have seen, asked me to email him about it.  I emailed him, and he asked me if I would turn the analysis into something resembling a coherent article.  So I did, and it's now on the main page (for now, otherwise check the MLB page) of bleacherreport.com.

I would like to take this time to point out that:

1. Grant is a much better writer than I am.
   
2. Grant rules.
   
3. Editors, well, edited my writing.  I haven't had editors before.  It's strange.  I guess that on this site, they just edit your article without consulting you.  What ends up on the site is pretty much what I wrote, but at times not exactly how I wrote it.  I promise I submitted something much less rambling than my usual posts.  Like this one.
   
4. The article contains, of course, McCovey Chronicles boosterism.  Mainly this is because Grant rules.

Hahahahah!

Here is the article.

It also says that "In Chicago, Baker presided over third baseman Aramis Ramirez's emergence as a star after arriving in a 2003 trade with Pittsburgh."

Yeah... Dusty was responsible...  I guess they think this may help them get Ramirez?

Iwamura is described as a "power-hitting 3rd baseman."

He is 5'9", 176, 27 years old, and is nicknamed "Gun."  He hit .310/.386/.552 this year.  He has won multiple gold gloves in NPB.  He apparently strikes out a lot.

The article is here.

A bio is here.

NPB CL stats for 2006 are here.

As for some of the other guys on the NPB leaderboard:  Alex Cabrera is going to be 35 in December.  Drafted by the Cubs, he couldn't get to AA and left for the Mexican League.  The D-Backs signed him from there.  He went nuts in AA and eventually got called up to Arizona for 80 AB in 2000.  He then left for Japan.  He tied Sadaharu Oh's single-season record in Japan with 55 HR in 2002, but was pitched around completely at the end of the year by the Fukuoka Daiei Hawks.  Who were managed by Oh.  He plays 1B.

Tyrone Woods torched the ball this year, didn't he?  He played 10 years in the minors here without getting out of AAA.  He went to Korea and starred before going to Japan.  He is 37 and plays 1B.

Seung-Yeop Lee starred in Korea before coming to the US and spending spring training with the Cubs in 2002 and Marlins in 2003.  Teams have offered him minor-league deals but have not promised him an MLB job.  He then went to Japan.  While he absolutely raked in Korea, he hasn't actually been particularly good in Japan until recently.  He hit .323/.389/.615 with 41 HR for the Yomiuri Giants this year.  The Yankees have expressed interest.  He plays 1B/DH/some LF and is 30 years old.

Kosuke Fukudome is a gold glove-winning RFer for the Chunichi Dragons.  I don't think he is eligible for posting yet, but he hit .350/.436/.648 this year with 30 HR and 46 doubles.  Excellent.

And while we're at it, how about Daisuke Matsuzaka?  He recently turned 26 and went 17-5 for Seibu this year with a 2.13 ERA, 200 K, and a .92 WHIP in 186 1/3 IP.  He had 14 CG and opposing batters hit .206 against him.  He only allowed 13 HR.  He even wins the gold glove every year.  On the other hand, he has now pitched over 1100 innings since his 1999 debut at age 18, and missed time in 2002 with an elbow injury.  And he will cost a whole lot of money.

Supposedly, Joe Girardi is to be let go by the Marlins on Tuesday.  The team is expected to hire Braves Third Base Coach Fredi Gonzalez as its manager.

The story is here

Woohoo!  I don't care what the Giants do.  I got my results tonight.  I passed the bar exam.

I am very drunk, and can barely type.  Luckily, bars are open until 5am in Chicago.  Also, I am lucky that I can still spell.

(Apologies in advance, Grant!)

Ok kids, the season is all but over.  Who's under contract next year?  For how much?  Well, let's see...

Under Contract Next Year
Contracts in millions of dollars for 2007
M Morris  - 9.5
R Winn    - 4
A Benitez - 7.6
O Vizquel - 2.4
T Worrell - 2
M Sweeney - 0.95
Lowry     - 1.115
Matheny   - 2.5

Total: $30.065m

Under Team's Control:
Likely to be on team
Cain
Sanchez
Linden
Chulk
Niekro
Correia
Frandsen
Hennessey
Alfonzo
Wilson

I assigned these guys $350k each - close enough

Total: $3.5m

I decided that Munter, Taschner, Lewis, and all the others will likely be in the minors.  They will be paid the MLB minimum when called up, but I don't count them against the salary total.

Guys with Options:
Finley - $7m, club (ahahaahahahahahah)
Durham - $7m, player (he can likely get more)
Wright - $2.5m, mutual (not going to happen)

Salary Total: $33.565 million.

Given that the team payroll this year was $90 million, that's a lot of money to play with.  Let's see how many players and at what position they are.

Pitchers (don't really need 12, but that's probably how many the team will carry)
Likely SP
Cain
Morris
Lowry
Sanchez
Likely RP
Benitez
Chulk
Hennessey
Correia
Wilson
(I don't think Worrell is coming back)

Spots to Fill: 3 (if not more, if team gives up on/trades some youngsters)

Position Players (need 13)
C
(? - Matheny probably not coming back)
1B
Sweeney
Niekro
2B
(?)
SS
Vizquel
3B
(?)
LF
(?) (most likely Bonds)
CF
Winn
RF
Linden
Bench
Alfonzo
Frandsen

Spots to Fill: 6

Total Needs:
3 Pitchers, including one SP (if not from within)
6 Position Players:
1 C (if Alfonzo at backup, then starter)
1 2B (assuming Frandsen as utility IF)
1 3B (starter)
1 LF (starter: probably Bonds, of course)
1 OF (Backup - unless Linden doesn't start)
1 Misc Backup (if Linden doesn't start, then CF)

Notable Free Agents to be:
C
B Molina
T Greene
D Mirabelli
G Zaun
1B
S Casey
N Garciaparra
S Hatteberg
C Wilson (also OF)
S Hindenburg
D Young
(F Thomas is a DH)
2B
R Durham
T Graffanino
A Kennedy
M Loretta
T Walker
SS
J Lugo
J Vizcaino (ha!)
3B
P Feliz
D Bell
R Aurilia (also 2B, SS)
J Cirillo
A Ramirez* (he may void contract and become a FA after this season.  His current deal calls for $11m in 2007, $11.5m in 2008, and a 2009 mutual option for $11m.  The option automatically vests with 270 games played in 2007-08.  So he can void, but you better beat that deal)
OF (guys with * can play CF)
B Lamar Bonds
M Alou
A Soriano (probably LF only, also crap 2B)
M Cameron*
M DeRosa (also crap 2B)
T Hunter*
C Lee
S Stewart
D Roberts*
G Sheffield (has current $13m club option)
T Nixon
G Matthews Jr*
J Guillen
J Edmonds* (has $10m club option)
(J Dye has $6m club option - he isn't going anywhere)
S Finley (ha!)
R Ledee  (ha!)
SP (* means LHP)
J Schmidt
B Zito*
T Lilly*
C Lidle
G Maddux
M Batista
G Meche
J Moyer* (just about old enough for the Giants)
R Ortiz (Ramon - I wouldn't do that to you)
M Mulder* (brokedown - maybe worth a rehab project?)
C H Park
B Radke
J Suppan
K Wood ($13.5m mutual option likely to be declined)
RP (* means LHP)
(Lot of crap here)
M Stanton*
S Kline*
D Baez
C Bradford
F Cordero ($5m club option)
D Weathers
O Dotel
R Cormier*
A Embree*
L Hawkins
R Hernandez
D Hermanson ($3.5m club option)
R King*
J Mesa ($3m club option - wouldn't that be fun!)
B Wickman
S Williamson
Other Assorted Crap
(Two big injury problems: K Foulke - $7.5m club option, $3.75m player option that he is likely to take; E Gagne - $12m club option)

Full List of FA to be and possibles at this site.

Crap.  I can't get the link to show properly.  Someone give me a tip.

Have fun.

Well folks, I hate to disappoint you, but my girlfriend forgot the camera.  And yes, I blame her, because she has the digital camera.  Ok, I didn't remind her and only asked when we were running late and already on our way.  So no photos.  I'll give you my rundown of the place, though.

This was my second trip to Milwaukee.  The first time I went was to see The Shins when I couldn't go to the show in Chicago.  I was pleasantly surprised in my limited time there.  The show was close to downtown in a great music venue.  There was a pretty good college presence as the venue is close to Marquette University.  Milwaukee does have that industrial/former industrial Great Lakes feel, definitely smaller than Detroit but without the abandoned, crumbling aspect of the Motor City.  It isn't bad - there is a certain down-to-earth quality I like about these Great Lakes cities.  Plus, the crowd for the show was great - was really into the show, cheered loudly for encores
- definitely better than most Chicago crowds.

That said, I turn to Miller Park, the House that (ironically enough) Bud Built.  This is an era of beautiful new ballparks, especially the one we all know and love by the bay.  The suburban cookie-cutters with gargantuan parking lots are more and more a thing of the past, or at least confined to football.  Ballyards have also returned downtown, and even in formerly rundown areas, revitalized neighborhoods have sprung up around the parks.

I went to Comerica Park in Detroit last month.  The park is right downtown, even though most of the fans are from the suburbs and drive.  The parking lots and garages are spread out and broken up quite a bit, so the park is still surrounded by bars, restaurants, and Ford Field (football) next door.  The park has a view of the downtown skyline, even if several of the buildings are empty.  It was a good time, and a beautiful park.  Comerica is one of the best parks I have been to.  The neighborhood around Jacobs Field is better and more developed, and the park is excellent, but I think Comerica is even better.

Miller Park is in the City of Milwaukee, but not downtown.  It is at the intersection of I-94 and US 41, a few minutes from downtown in the middle of nothing.  It is surrounded by very large parking lots in an empty industrial sort of area, with no commercial or residential area around the park, and seemingly none planned.  Think new park at Candlestick or Coliseum.  And this had to be on purpose.  I am pretty sure that the park was built where County Stadium used to be, but it didn't have to be there.  Judging from the look of it, there are plenty of places downtown and on the lakefront where the park could have been built, so the park is where it is on purpose.  There was actual tailgating there, which isn't my thing, especially for baseball.  That contributed to the people filing in late for the game.

It also comes across at a bit bare-bones and cheap.  Yes, it is a nice looking park, and certainly shiny and new.  It was also expensive - a lot more than planned - and became a lot more expensive and the subject of a lot of legal action with the builder and Mitsubishi, who provided the retractable roof that has proved to be a faulty and leaky mess.

Why they needed a retractable roof is also beyond me.  Sure, it can be fairly cold at the beginning and end of the season, but I don't think it rains a lot more in Milwaukee than in most other Midwest places.  Minnesota I can understand, because it is quite a bit colder there.  But baseball is played outdoors in Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and the Northeast.  Milwaukee County Stadium was outdoors.  Are people in Wisconsin more sensitive to weather conditions?  Well, the Packers play outdoors, so I would say no.

Worst of all, the roof was closed yesterday.  Although the temperature wasn't so warm (maybe 65 degrees?), and it was a bit breezy directly outside the park, it was bright and sunny, with the warm sun a nice contrast to the cooler air.  Think San Francisco on a clear, sunny day in March or April.  I have no idea why the roof was closed.

Overall, I blame Bud Selig.  They could have done a much better job.  It feels like they were trying to be everything to everybody, but sort of cheaply and without a lot of character.  I don't know the cost of the park, but the roof and kickbacks probably accounted for a fair bit of the price.

My seats, however, were excellent.  We sat at the back of Section 120, but the seats were still very close to the field.  The park seats about 45,000, but still seems small, although the building is garguantuan due to the retractable roof.  The park is, again, shiny and new, but not as nice as say, AT&T, Comerica, Jacobs, or seemingly Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark, which I have seen several times without having attended a game there.

It feels more like the White Sox's US Cellular Park - new, nice, but not particularly special.  It also doesn't seem to stand out as really saying "this is Milwaukee," with the exception of the awesome Sausage Race.  Yes, Bernie Brewer has his slide, way up in LF.  There are Brewer memories around, including a "Brewers Walk of Fame" outside that consists of plaques in the ground outside the yard.  There is a Hank Aaron statute outside, but he isn't really identified with the Brewers.  Still, his Milwaukee link may contribute to the anti-Bonds sentiment that was everywhere.

I wasn't impressed with the fans.  Yeah, they cheered a lot when Rivera cleared the bases with a double off the wall (nice 0-2 pitch, Cain).  And they had a great time when de la Rosa was caught between 1st and 2nd after his RBI single.  But those were easy ones.  I didn't get the sense that people were really into the game very much, and especially the little things.  There was lackluster cheering when the board showed "make some noise," but even that seemed forced.  There were three or four college-aged kids behind me who were drunk, high, or both, one of them a girl who wouldn't shut up about kegs and college parties and other drivel.  They weren't representative of everyone around me, but over all, the people seemed only moderately into the game.

As we all know from AT&T, the new parks draw fans who aren't so rabid as all of us.  And I was sitting in really nice seats, that incidentally, I was easily able to buy two days before the game.  The biggest cheers of the game, though, besides the end and the Rivera double, were for the Packers score that periodically was flashed on the board.  The worst part was that behind my section there were seats outside boxes where the fans had TVs in front of them.  They were watching the Packers game and cheering for it, while barely (if at all) watching the game in front of them.  It was totally annoying - even worse than the wave.  Yes, they actually got the wave going around the stadium, and people were doing it.  I was looking around for the beach ball, which thankfully never appeared.

As far as the game went, well, you watched it.  Sad.  The highlight?  Either Feliz's blooper that scored a run in the ninth or de la Rosa's solid hitting followed by Ellisonesque baserunning.  Take your pick.  Even the Brewers fans were disappointed and amazed that Bonds didn't hit in the ninth.  Unfortunately, I could believe that Felipe wouldn't PH Bonds, as pissed as I was.  After Linden's walk, Feliz, Alfonzo, and de la Rosa were scheduled to hit.  I knew Feliz would hit, but I couldn't believe Alfonzo and de la Rosa would be allowed to.  There was a definite stir in the place as everyone waited for Bonds to step out there.  Feliz gets lucky, and I had something to stand up and cheer.  Then, Alfonzo does hit, and Winn walks out in de la Rosa's place.

Unbelievable.  Sure, the season is over.  But Felipe cheated the fans, all of whom deserved to see Bonds hit there.  It's one thing if the score is 6-1 and no one is on base.  But this was a potential game-winning spot.  Plus, I am bitter because I have seen the Giants in person twice this year and Bonds has made only one PH appearance.  Sundays suck.

Finally, I will say that the fans were pretty cool to me in my Giants jersey.  Sure, after the game there were people sweeping after me with brooms, but who wouldn't do that?  One guy even (apologetically) threw some paper confetti at me, but it was all in good fun.

It was baseball, though, so I still had a good time.

We all know Winn hasn't been good this year.  He is currently hitting .256/.317/.384.  Now we all knew that the Winn we saw last year in SF wasn't going to show up this year.  We could, though, expect more of the career .284/.343/.420 hitter that Winn is.  No, he isn't young, but he isn't in the fall-off-the-cliff part of his career yet.

He has been struggling even worse since the All-Star Break.  Before the break, it was fairly typical Winn (.270/.343/.427), while afterwards he has put up a line that can only wish to be described as "pedestrian" : .228/.265/.304.  Ouch.

So we all know why, right?  He's been eaten up by our lovely home ballpark, like so many before him.  Except that it isn't true:

Winn at home: .285/.346/.419 - that's basically Winn's career.

Winn on road:  .225/.286/.349 - ouch.  That's bad.  Not quite Johnnie Lemaster bad, but bad nonetheless.

So what's wrong?  Is Winn playing hurt?  Has he adjusted to his home park, but immediately tries to hit everything out on the road?  Does he miss his own bed?  Is he pressing?  If he is pressing, would our hitting coach notice?  Do we have a hitting coach?  Does anyone know his name?  What does Joe Lefebvre do?

So many questions.  So how about some stats?  (Thanks fangraphs.com!)

For starters, Winn's OBP is low, but that is almost all attributable to BA.  His walk rate is a little lower than it was last year, a little better than it was the year before.  He is striking out less, though.  Winn strikes out in 11% of his AB.  His K rate was 14.7% in 2005, 15.7% in 2004, and never lower than 18% before that.  As we can see from his numbers this year, striking out less is not helping Winn.  I wonder if the organization preaches contact and productive outs.  It wouldn't surprise me if Felipe thought this way - he was a low BB, low K guy himself.  You know, like AJ Pierzynski.  Maybe that's why we get so many GIDPs.

Winn's Ground Ball % has actually stayed about the same, at a shade under 50%, well in line with recent years.  

His Fly Ball % the last three years has been right around 29%.  This year, he is at 34.5%.  That is a sizeable jump.  It looks like he is trying to hit more HRs, which would make sense after last Aug/Sept.  But it isn't working.  Last year, his HR/FB rate was 13.1%, crazy out-of-line with his 8-9% of the prior three years.  This year, his HR/FB rate is 6.1%.  The extra fly balls aren't flying out of the park.  They are just turning into outs, particularly on the road.

It is also making him pop up.  Winn's Line Drive % has been between 18-22% the last four years.  This year he is at 15.9 LD%.  It looks like Winn is trying to hit for more power by hitting the ball in the air instead of trying for solid line drives.  Nice job, leadoff man!  This is also making him pop up to the IF more.  Granted, his 13.5 IFFB% this year is the same as he had in 2003 and not too much higher than in 2002, but it is lot higher than 2004 and 2005.

Basically, it looks like Winn is trying to hit more HRs, which is making him hit fewer HRs and more popups and fly ball outs.  Some of this might be luck - his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .272 this year, while his career BABIP is .325.  That stat alone basically explains his down year, and it is probably attributable to both luck and what appears to be a change in approach at the plate.  Typically, BABIP is going to be around .300-.305, with fast guys being a little better, due to more IF hits, and extreme flyball guys being worse, because fly balls in play get caught a lot.  Note that fly ball hitting guys are often sluggers whose BAs are helped by HRs.  Bonds, for example, has a career BABIP of .289 but a career BA of .299.  (This year, Bonds has a BABIP of .239 - think just as many FB, with fewer going out, and 3 IFers for every GB).  Also, for anyone interested, Ray Durham doesn't really appear to be doing anything dramatically differently this year.  He has more FB this year than he did last year, but fewer than in the year before.  The biggest difference this year is that his FB are turning into HR at an unprecedented (for Ray-Ray) rate.  What does this mean?  I have no idea.

Winn appears to have been hit-unlucky.  Part of this seems to be from a change in approach, while part is simple bad luck.  Finley, on the other hand, sucks way less than he did last year.  His BABIP this year is .271, almost identical to Winn's, and worlds better than his .241 BABIP last year.  Finley seems to have rescued himself from the ballplayer abyss by hitting a lot more ground balls (46.6% this year vs. 39.4% each of the previous two years) while cutting his FB% from 42.4% last year to 38.5% this year.  Finley isn't hitting line drives, as anyone who watches the games might have noticed - his LD% is down to 14.9%.

It looks like Finley has made positive adjustments, while Winn hasn't (and appears to be hurting himself).  Winn had room to fall, though, while Finley was a bad month from taking Tony Torcato's spot on the Chico Outlaws.

Overall, I think Winn should be playing more and Finley sitting more.  Even without adjustments, Winn is due to regress to the mean (i.e. be less unlucky).  If Winn sits, it should be against LHP.  He is godawful (.196/.260/.319) against lefties this year.  I am not sure why, as Winn usually isn't much worse against LHP than he is against RHP.  Against righties this year (.277/.336/.408), Winn isn't much worse than his career norms vs. all pitching.  Plus, Ellison should probably be used if Winn sits against LHP.  Ellison hit a solid .386/.457/.425 in 127 major-league AB vs. LHP from 2002-2005.  That's mighty solid lefty-mashing, albeit in a fairly small sample.

So, you made it this far.  Thanks!

According to this sfgiants.com Giants Notes article, Felipe says he has changed his mind about dropping Benitez as the closer.

"I might skip Benitez any given game," the manager said, "but the guy known to have saved games is Armando Benitez. Why should we try to find somebody? It's not going to work. We tried everybody last year."

See?  Benitez is a PROVEN CLOSER(TM).  Finding another closer is HARD, because Felipe doesn't know who else can close games.  Why?  Because NO ONE ELSE HAS CLOSED GAMES BEFORE!  Sure, it would be easy if Timmah! was here.  Because he is a PROVEN CLOSER(TM) too.  But he isn't, because his arm, or his back, or his brain, or something hurts a lot.  So it is, like, really hard not to put Blownitez out there.  Just ask Mando.  He'll tell you what a PROVEN CLOSER(TM) he is.

The sheer lunacy of trying someone else who isn't already a PROVEN CLOSER(TM) is clear.  I mean, who knows what will happen?  You could put Correia out there, or Chulk, or Kline, and sheer madness could result.  They could get the save in a 1-2-3 inning.  They could allow a baserunner and then get a double play.  There could even be MORE THAN ONE PITCHER IN THE 9TH INNING.  Kline could come in and face a lefty.  Then Chulk could face the next two righties.  

The possibilities are endless, and that is damn confusing, says Felipe.  That sort of uncertainty is not what made Felipe Alou THE GAME'S OLDEST MANAGER.  No sir.

Oh, I forgot the other possibility.  They could just blow the save and lose the game.  Like our PROVEN CLOSER(TM).

I ran across this interesting tidbit about Shealy in a Pittsburgh Post-Gazette article (mostly about the Pirates, of course).

"Colorado's desired return for first baseman Ryan Shealy--a player the Pirates have discussed with the Rockies--is a young middle reliever."

Hmmm.  I would still like Sabean to work some magic and bring back a known quantity impact player.  But if all the Rockies want is a young middle reliever, then why not take a chance?

Correia for Shealy would be nice.

I suppose the Pirates are thinking "trade Casey to the Giants, trade middle reliever for Shealy."

I suppose I'll throw in a poll for good measure.

Here's the story.  He's back with the Mets he loves so dearly.