The high batting average with RISP has been discussed on many posts.  But, to me, it was more than that last year.  It wasn't just how well the Twins hit with RISP, it was how much better they did EVERYTHING offensively...that is what makes me wonder.  For example,  the Twins batted .305 with RISP (tops in the majors)  versus  .263   when nobody was on base (12th in the majors).  But what is not mentioned as much is that the Twins also had an OBP of .380 with RISP (tops in the Majors).  Yet, when nobody was on base, the Twins had an OBP of .317 (18th in the majors)

So, when nobody was on base, the Twins were below average at getting on base...but when someone was in scoring position, the Twins were the best team in baseball at adding runners.  Not only that, the Twins slugging percentage when nobody was on base was 27th in all of baseball at  .379     but when runners were in scoring position, the Twins slugging percentage was .446 (4th in the majors).   The Twins had the fewest extra base hits in the majors when nobody was on base (228)...and they had 9th most extra base hits with RISP.  The Twins also hit the most sac flies in the majors (72).  So they executed several aspects of the game very well with RISP...and over a lot of plate appearances...

With RISP the Twins hit better, got on base more and slugged at a higher rate...not just marginally higher...but 63 points higher in OBP and 67 points higher in Slugging percentage.   The Twins had the second highest OPS in the majors with RISP.  But with nobody on base, the Twins were 25th in OPS.

The Twins had 3373 plate appearances with nobody on base.  And, the Twins had 1814 plate appearances with RISP (4th in MLB).   The Twins, to nobody's surprise, hit the fewest solo HR's  in the majors (55).  So they scored the fewest runs with nobody on base and the 4th most runs with RISP (684).  

Is it possible to repeat this level of achievement with RISP?   Well, in 2006, the Twins had very similar results, although, not quite as dramatic a disparity between results with nobody on base and RISP.  In 2006 the Twins had an OBP of .330 with nobody on base, but their OBP with RISP was .373 (almost as high an OBP with RISP as we had this year)   And the Twins slugging % with nobody on base was .412 in 2006....but with RISP in 2006, the Twins slugging % was .448 (higher than our slugging % with RISP this year)

The OPS with RISP in 2006 was .821 ...the OPS with RISP this year was .826   not a big difference.  So..yes these kinds of results can be duplicated more or less.   The Twins scored 684 runs with RISP in 2008, versus only 642 with RISP in 2006...but then the Twins had  nearly 100 more plate appearances with RISP in 2008.  The percentage of runs scored to plate appearances was pretty similar in these years.  So, again, these kinds of results can be duplicated.  

By the way, the LA Angels had somewhat similar results in 2007.  They scored a relatively low percentage of runs with nobody on base...and scored a similar number of runs with RISP (648).   They saw their numbers rise, in general, with RISP (although not nearly as much as the Twins).  The Angels had to manufacture runs in 2007, because they did not have much power either.  They hit a few more solo HR's than the Twins...and they managed to hit 32 HR's with a runner on first only....so that added to their runs scored when not in scoring position...but they managed to get runners into scoring position at a similar rate as the Twins...they had 1782 plate appearances that year with RISP and produced similar numbers as the Twins with very similar power (or lack thereof).   

It could be argued that it is not so much how the Twins performed with RISP that is so unique...it is how big the disparity was between how they performed when nobody was on base versus RISP.  The Tigers were similar in 2007.  They had a batting avg. of .311 with RISP versus only .275 with nobody on base.  The Tigers in 2007 had an obp of .327 with nobody on base and .383 with RISP...so that is a 55 point swing.  And they scored 693 runs with RISP with 1800 plate appearances...The Twins scored 684 with RISP this year..so that is only 9 fewer than the mighty Tigers with RISP....But the Tigers slugging percentage was only 25 points higher with RISP that year...whereas the Twins slugged 67 points higher this year.  I have not researched this as thoroughly as I would have liked..but I have not yet found a team that raised both their team OBP and Slugging anywhere near 60 points with RISP as the Twins did in 2008.

So....if the question is, can the Twins produce extremely solid OPS with RISP, the answer is yes....they did it in 2006 and 2008 ...but can they repeat a 60 point increase over their performance with nobody on base?   That seems very difficult to do...and one more thing...while the Twins have done this before in 2006 and 2008....they came nowhere near these kinds of numbers or increases in any other year...in 2003  we scored 801 runs...one of our best years under Gardy, but a much more powerful team that year and far lower percentage of runs scored with RISP ...so there is not much precedent for this other than 2006 and 2008...maybe what really happened is we caught lightning in a bottle......twice...

I think the primary reason no trade or signing "fits" or "matches" up for the Twins is in large part due to how the payroll will look in 2010.  Bill Smith has to consider how any free agent signing of more than one year will fit into the budget in 2010 and beyond..with salaries in 2010 that will be as follows:

Mauer  (without signing an extension)  $12.5 million, 

Morneau $14 million,

Nathan $11.25 million,

Cuddyer $8.5 million,

Punto $4 million. 

That is $50 million plus for the highest paid guys under contract. 

Liriano and Baker will each be arbitration eligible...using Wang's arbitration decision from 2008 as a benchmark  for a 1st year eligible pitcher of their calibre...they will each likely get at least $4 million....if they perform as we hope this year, that could be on the low side..so let's assume $5 million apiece, just for the sake of argument.  Kubel will likely get a significant raise if he performs well...so let's bump him to $5 million too.    That adds $15 million to the $50 million for the above players...now we are at $65 million for 8 players.

Also..several other players will become arbitration eligible in 2010 (assuming they perform the way we hope and we choose to keep them)...guys like  Harris, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez (if he is Super 2),  Breslow, Bonser, Guerrier (can't see the Twins keeping both Bonser and Guerrier)....Neshek, Perkins (I think).  So that will mean several raises ...probably  $1.5 million average salary for 7 guys (as I say, they won't keep all these relievers)...so that adds $10 million  to the numbers above...and puts us at $75 million for 15 players

Then, we have 10 more spots at or around league minimum...say $420,000 average salaries...adding another $4.2 million and we are at $79.2 million (approximately)...could be higher or slightly lower depending on arbitration results.

But it will be right around the $80 million mark WITHOUT a major signing or trade...so unless we can unload a contract in any trade...it is difficult to see how the Twins can upgrade without a willingness to be over $85 million in 2010.  If the Twins had signed Blake, maybe they would have NOT signed Punto...hard to say,but as it is, adding Blake to what we have with Punto, would have almost ensured we would have been over $85 million next season.

If we sign Wigginton, for example, for two years or more, we will be over $85 million next year.  So that is why he is probably not on the radar, as much as any defensive issues he may have.   This is why I keep thinking that a Beltre trade is about the only trade of significance that Smith MIGHT be willing to make..because while it adds dollars this year, it does not inflate the payroll in 2010 and beyond. 

The only other trades that will work for the Twins will have to involve getting rid of a high cost contract...so unless they would be willing to trade Nathan (which I doubt, and would not recommend) then Cuddyer is the only big contract they would be willing to trade...and he has little value (other than maybe a salary dump in order to upgrade another area)...short of a trade involving Cuddyer, the Twins will need to look for a trade for a one year rental...like Adrian Beltre or Brian Roberts, with Beltre being a much better fit, at least for 2009.

We can wish for a trade for Hardy...(someone on a different blog argued we should involve Ben Revere in such a trade) but, even if we could find a match that  trade likely would increase the team salary to over $85 million for 2010 (unless we were willing to trade Baker or Liriano, which of course we would not).....it seems very doubtful the Twins will want to go over $80 million in 2010...but who knows....

Yunel Escobar could fit  (financially) in a trade scenario....or maybe Kouzmanoff...but that's about it....at least with respect to the names we have been hearing about all Winter.   A trade for Escobar or Kouzmanoff would likely keep the team salary at about $80 million.

So...it's either a one year rental type trade involving Beltre....or a salary dump of Cuddyer, followed by a trade to upgrade...or a trade for Escobar or Kouzmanoff (where we trade guys who are also becoming arb. eligible..like Delmon Young)

Trades for Michael Young or other similar players will likely never work financially, even with a Cuddyer salary dump, unless the Twins are willing to exceed $85 million next year, which I highly doubt....So, I think it may be best to make a strong run at Beltre...and if that does not work, then it may be best to simply go with what we have.