After the first 4 games, my impression is there are 4 legitimate top twenty prospects on this team (Arcia, Ortiz, Salcedo and Soliman).  Here is my assessment of what happened in Quad Cities over the weekend.  (it should be noted that normally the weather is cold early on in the Midwest league, but the weather in Davenport was very nice all weekend long.  So that may have helped some of the hitters avoid the slow starts we often see)

First, Hermsen, despite his size and ability to pitch to contact with a delivery that is effortless....does not project well.  I spoke to a scout behind home plate that basically seemed bewildered as to why Hermsen doesn't have better stuff given his size. He has some good things going for him.   He throws strikes (unlike Martire Garcia).  He can generally keep the ball down...has that downward plane... He has a smooth delivery.  But is not deceptive...and throws in the high 80's.  But nobody seems to think he will be much of a prospect. 

Second, Salcedo.    Salcedo throws hard and generally locates the ball pretty well.  I saw three separate guns (Lobonav was charting for Beloit, the Quad Cities guys were there with their own gun...and the scout had his gun)...they generally were all within 1 mph of each other.  Salcedo was regularly at 94mph with what appeared to be a 4 seam fastball.  It was fairly straight, but it seemed to explode late.  No right handed hitter could touch his fastball (the lefties had some success....I will get to that in a minute)

Salcedo is unique for those of us who have seen so many finesse (pitch to contact) guys.   Salcedo is the classic power pitcher.  Very nasty breaking ball.  Right handed hitters were at his mercy.  He struggled with his offspeed stuff to lefties early...so he challenged them solely with fastballs.  After back to back bombs, in the second inning,  to a couple of lefties (and I mean absolute no doubters...way over the fence) he got more focused and starting using all his pitches.  He was virtually unhittable the rest of the game. 

the only caution on Salcedo is that his delivery may be violent, according to the scout next to me.  He does throw across his body a bit....so ..we will see what that means down the road.  But he is a power pitching prospect the likes of which the Twins have not seen in years.  His breaking ball is so nasty, I don't think any hitter even put so much as a good swing on it...nobody touched his breaking ball. 

Arcia.... is a physical specimen.  Thick, powerful, yet surprisingly athletic.   Arcia is a left handed hitter who dominates right handed pitching.  And he faced some excellent right handers in this series.  Rosenthal, Swagerty and Blair are all excellent prospects for St. Louis.  Rosenthal apparently hit 97 on the gun a couple times, Swagerty (2nd rounder from ASU) has an explosive fastball, and Blair (1st round draft pick from ASU)  has a power curve that is truly elite.  Quad Cities had some other arms that were pretty impressive too, but Arcia handled pretty much all of them.

Arcia, hit a triple off the wall that the wind blew back (the wind also blew back what would have been a home run for Santana...and a couple Quad Cities hitters had balls blown back on Saturday night...stiff wind in from right field).  So in that instance, Arcia pulled the ball.  His two doubles on Sunday were to left center, and he fought off a tough pitch by a LHP on Sunday and hit a two out RBI single to left.   He used the entire field all weekend.  An impressive display.  He may not have hit any HR's, but those will definitely come.   He is a powerful hitter.  He almost decapitated Blair with a line drive single on Saturday night.  The ball explodes off his bat.    And he can run a bit.  He stole second base on his fourth attempt (two hitters fouled off three pitches with Arcia running...so by the time he actually stole second, he was probably pretty tired..but he stole it anyway on a close play)

Ortiz, standing next to Arcia, looks like he is in 7th grade.  And yet, Ortiz has a decent projectable build.  He plays well in the outfield, although he will likely be a corner outfielder down the road.  He has a pretty good arm and covers some ground.  Not quite as good as Angel Morales, in my opinion, but a good left handed hitting prospect.  Since a hitter faces mostly right handed pitching, it is good to have two solid left handed hitting prospects in Arcia and Ortiz.  Ortiz used the whole field as well.  He absolutely laced a single over the shortstops head in one at bat...and in another at bat, he got out in front of a change up and sort of one handed a fly ball that was caught at up against the right field wall...he has some power.  Ortiz did not seem to get fooled much this weekend ...unlike Lance Ray who, while being a good hitter at times, struck out a lot and was fooled a lot in every game.   Arcia never seemed to get fooled.  Arcia did strike out on a pitch that seemed about 8 inches outside.  Arcia barked at the home plate umpire and, for a second, I thought he may get ejected.  But the ump let him walk away.  (one additional point about Arcia...he wants to swing.  You can tell ...but he, nonetheless, has a very good eye.  He did not chase much.  Probably had one bad at bat the whole weekend.)

Solliman throws hard.  Did not get to start, but the scout raved about his raw stuff.  Might have to follow him closely to see how he progresses.

Some disappointments.  McCallum just doesn't seem to put good wood on the ball.  Michael Gonzalez is huge and has a big swing.  Sadly, he rarely, if ever, squares one up.  Tobias Streich and Knudson are good defensive catchers, but not much offense from either.  Pinto is probably not going to be around long.   Tonkin is very skinny, funky delivery...throws hard, but does not deceive anyone.  O'Rourke has an odd delivery...unimpressive offspeed stuff.  Not much there from him or Dempster.  Martire Garcia could not find home plate with a map.  He was all over the place.  I expected more from Reggie Williams, but he was just sort of there...

Gunner Glad is a good hitter.  Not sure where he will play though.  He hit an absolute bomb to left field, off a very good pitcher.  And he took the ball to right field in other at bats.  Solid hitter who may not have a defensive position.

Daniel Santana is an enigma at this point.  A switch hitter who shows signs from both sides of the plate.  He hit with gap power from both sides.  He is very fast.  He has a cannon for an arm at Shortstop.  Lots of potential here.  But...he does some other things that make you scratch your head.  LIke failing to lay down a sac bunt on three successive pitches on Saturday night...then again on Sunday he had another weak effort on another sac bunt situation (fortunately their pitcher threw to second and the ball went into center field..so Santan was spared some misery there)   And he is still raw as a hitter.  Chases a lot of pitches.

It comes down to this.  The Twins do not have a sinkerball pitcher in their bullpen.  They desperately needed one last night to pitch to A-Rod.  Bringing in Guerrier, without the ability to use his out pitch (because Matty always is hesitant to use the hook when the tying run is on third, for fear he will wild pitch in the tying run)  is less than ideal.

The Twins did not set out this way.  The intent was to have Neshek available for such a situation.  Unfortunately, that did not work out.  But the point is, between now and the playoffs the Twins need to solve this situation.  Maybe Neshek will return.  Maybe they should be developing Gutierriez for a narrow role.  Maybe they feel Gutierriez could not be ready this year, so maybe they should be advancing Waldrop to use for that type of situation.

Or maybe they need a strikeout pitcher.  Like Slama.   The knock against Slama is he walks too many.  I am not certain I understand this argument completely.  His WHIP has always been ridiculously low.  And he can get the strikeout when he needs to do so.  So you have Waldrop, who can't get the strikeout, but can induce a ground ball....or Slama who could get a strikeout.  My concern is that we truly have no idea how these guys would fare against MLB hitting. 

But we do know how Guerrier does in certain situations.  And we know a fair amount about Crain...and the rest.  My question, in general, is what will the Twins do to make sure they have a ground ball inducing (or strikeout) pitcher to use in key situations later this year?  Are they simply going to hope Neshek comes back?   Or should they promote Waldrop and get him some experience now...so he can be useful later?  Or should they bring up Slama?  If we bring these guys up after we are done with the East Coast teams, then they will not have seen these guys come playoffs.  I think the Twins should bring up Slama, or Waldrop to get them the necessary experience to make sure they have an option other than Crain or Guerrier when they need to induce a grounder...Neshek may not recover and even if he does, then what would it have hurt to develp Waldrop a bit further...any thoughts?

The high batting average with RISP has been discussed on many posts.  But, to me, it was more than that last year.  It wasn't just how well the Twins hit with RISP, it was how much better they did EVERYTHING offensively...that is what makes me wonder.  For example,  the Twins batted .305 with RISP (tops in the majors)  versus  .263   when nobody was on base (12th in the majors).  But what is not mentioned as much is that the Twins also had an OBP of .380 with RISP (tops in the Majors).  Yet, when nobody was on base, the Twins had an OBP of .317 (18th in the majors)

So, when nobody was on base, the Twins were below average at getting on base...but when someone was in scoring position, the Twins were the best team in baseball at adding runners.  Not only that, the Twins slugging percentage when nobody was on base was 27th in all of baseball at  .379     but when runners were in scoring position, the Twins slugging percentage was .446 (4th in the majors).   The Twins had the fewest extra base hits in the majors when nobody was on base (228)...and they had 9th most extra base hits with RISP.  The Twins also hit the most sac flies in the majors (72).  So they executed several aspects of the game very well with RISP...and over a lot of plate appearances...

With RISP the Twins hit better, got on base more and slugged at a higher rate...not just marginally higher...but 63 points higher in OBP and 67 points higher in Slugging percentage.   The Twins had the second highest OPS in the majors with RISP.  But with nobody on base, the Twins were 25th in OPS.

The Twins had 3373 plate appearances with nobody on base.  And, the Twins had 1814 plate appearances with RISP (4th in MLB).   The Twins, to nobody's surprise, hit the fewest solo HR's  in the majors (55).  So they scored the fewest runs with nobody on base and the 4th most runs with RISP (684).  

Is it possible to repeat this level of achievement with RISP?   Well, in 2006, the Twins had very similar results, although, not quite as dramatic a disparity between results with nobody on base and RISP.  In 2006 the Twins had an OBP of .330 with nobody on base, but their OBP with RISP was .373 (almost as high an OBP with RISP as we had this year)   And the Twins slugging % with nobody on base was .412 in 2006....but with RISP in 2006, the Twins slugging % was .448 (higher than our slugging % with RISP this year)

The OPS with RISP in 2006 was .821 ...the OPS with RISP this year was .826   not a big difference.  So..yes these kinds of results can be duplicated more or less.   The Twins scored 684 runs with RISP in 2008, versus only 642 with RISP in 2006...but then the Twins had  nearly 100 more plate appearances with RISP in 2008.  The percentage of runs scored to plate appearances was pretty similar in these years.  So, again, these kinds of results can be duplicated.  

By the way, the LA Angels had somewhat similar results in 2007.  They scored a relatively low percentage of runs with nobody on base...and scored a similar number of runs with RISP (648).   They saw their numbers rise, in general, with RISP (although not nearly as much as the Twins).  The Angels had to manufacture runs in 2007, because they did not have much power either.  They hit a few more solo HR's than the Twins...and they managed to hit 32 HR's with a runner on first only....so that added to their runs scored when not in scoring position...but they managed to get runners into scoring position at a similar rate as the Twins...they had 1782 plate appearances that year with RISP and produced similar numbers as the Twins with very similar power (or lack thereof).   

It could be argued that it is not so much how the Twins performed with RISP that is so unique...it is how big the disparity was between how they performed when nobody was on base versus RISP.  The Tigers were similar in 2007.  They had a batting avg. of .311 with RISP versus only .275 with nobody on base.  The Tigers in 2007 had an obp of .327 with nobody on base and .383 with RISP...so that is a 55 point swing.  And they scored 693 runs with RISP with 1800 plate appearances...The Twins scored 684 with RISP this year..so that is only 9 fewer than the mighty Tigers with RISP....But the Tigers slugging percentage was only 25 points higher with RISP that year...whereas the Twins slugged 67 points higher this year.  I have not researched this as thoroughly as I would have liked..but I have not yet found a team that raised both their team OBP and Slugging anywhere near 60 points with RISP as the Twins did in 2008.

So....if the question is, can the Twins produce extremely solid OPS with RISP, the answer is yes....they did it in 2006 and 2008 ...but can they repeat a 60 point increase over their performance with nobody on base?   That seems very difficult to do...and one more thing...while the Twins have done this before in 2006 and 2008....they came nowhere near these kinds of numbers or increases in any other year...in 2003  we scored 801 runs...one of our best years under Gardy, but a much more powerful team that year and far lower percentage of runs scored with RISP ...so there is not much precedent for this other than 2006 and 2008...maybe what really happened is we caught lightning in a bottle......twice...

I think the primary reason no trade or signing "fits" or "matches" up for the Twins is in large part due to how the payroll will look in 2010.  Bill Smith has to consider how any free agent signing of more than one year will fit into the budget in 2010 and beyond..with salaries in 2010 that will be as follows:

Mauer  (without signing an extension)  $12.5 million, 

Morneau $14 million,

Nathan $11.25 million,

Cuddyer $8.5 million,

Punto $4 million. 

That is $50 million plus for the highest paid guys under contract. 

Liriano and Baker will each be arbitration eligible...using Wang's arbitration decision from 2008 as a benchmark  for a 1st year eligible pitcher of their calibre...they will each likely get at least $4 million....if they perform as we hope this year, that could be on the low side..so let's assume $5 million apiece, just for the sake of argument.  Kubel will likely get a significant raise if he performs well...so let's bump him to $5 million too.    That adds $15 million to the $50 million for the above players...now we are at $65 million for 8 players.

Also..several other players will become arbitration eligible in 2010 (assuming they perform the way we hope and we choose to keep them)...guys like  Harris, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez (if he is Super 2),  Breslow, Bonser, Guerrier (can't see the Twins keeping both Bonser and Guerrier)....Neshek, Perkins (I think).  So that will mean several raises ...probably  $1.5 million average salary for 7 guys (as I say, they won't keep all these relievers)...so that adds $10 million  to the numbers above...and puts us at $75 million for 15 players

Then, we have 10 more spots at or around league minimum...say $420,000 average salaries...adding another $4.2 million and we are at $79.2 million (approximately)...could be higher or slightly lower depending on arbitration results.

But it will be right around the $80 million mark WITHOUT a major signing or trade...so unless we can unload a contract in any trade...it is difficult to see how the Twins can upgrade without a willingness to be over $85 million in 2010.  If the Twins had signed Blake, maybe they would have NOT signed Punto...hard to say,but as it is, adding Blake to what we have with Punto, would have almost ensured we would have been over $85 million next season.

If we sign Wigginton, for example, for two years or more, we will be over $85 million next year.  So that is why he is probably not on the radar, as much as any defensive issues he may have.   This is why I keep thinking that a Beltre trade is about the only trade of significance that Smith MIGHT be willing to make..because while it adds dollars this year, it does not inflate the payroll in 2010 and beyond. 

The only other trades that will work for the Twins will have to involve getting rid of a high cost contract...so unless they would be willing to trade Nathan (which I doubt, and would not recommend) then Cuddyer is the only big contract they would be willing to trade...and he has little value (other than maybe a salary dump in order to upgrade another area)...short of a trade involving Cuddyer, the Twins will need to look for a trade for a one year rental...like Adrian Beltre or Brian Roberts, with Beltre being a much better fit, at least for 2009.

We can wish for a trade for Hardy...(someone on a different blog argued we should involve Ben Revere in such a trade) but, even if we could find a match that  trade likely would increase the team salary to over $85 million for 2010 (unless we were willing to trade Baker or Liriano, which of course we would not).....it seems very doubtful the Twins will want to go over $80 million in 2010...but who knows....

Yunel Escobar could fit  (financially) in a trade scenario....or maybe Kouzmanoff...but that's about it....at least with respect to the names we have been hearing about all Winter.   A trade for Escobar or Kouzmanoff would likely keep the team salary at about $80 million.

So...it's either a one year rental type trade involving Beltre....or a salary dump of Cuddyer, followed by a trade to upgrade...or a trade for Escobar or Kouzmanoff (where we trade guys who are also becoming arb. eligible..like Delmon Young)

Trades for Michael Young or other similar players will likely never work financially, even with a Cuddyer salary dump, unless the Twins are willing to exceed $85 million next year, which I highly doubt....So, I think it may be best to make a strong run at Beltre...and if that does not work, then it may be best to simply go with what we have.