SBNation.com User Blog: NorwayMike

Midseason review of my March predictions for the Bengal season

NorwayMike — Thu, 08 Nov 2012 10:39:29 -0000

Based on my march 20 post (partially reprinted below) evaluating what MB, ML and company had done in the offseason compared to what their upcoming opponents had done, I projected a 6-7 win season and was immediately ripped a new one :-)! Somehow analyzing the team was interpreted as not supporting them. I just want to review some of my predictions and see where we stand:

Starting optimistically with 7 wins: we lost one to Cleveland which is -1 from my total. We are now at 6. We have lost 2 of 4 so far against Pitt/Baltimore . -1/2 using baseball terminology. We lost to Miami so another -1. We are now at a 4 1/2 win season. We beat Jacksonville so it's a wash even if we lose to Oakland +1/2. We are now at a 5 win season projection. Kandy-a$$ City and San Diego look winable based on their performances so far so we are back to 7 wins. Finally, taking one from either Dallas or Philidelphia seems reachable. So, at the halfway point my optimistic scanario climbs to 8 wins, but not without reservations. 8 wins means that we finally figure out Oakland, that Dallas and Philidelphia continue to spiral down teamwise and misfire on the field, that San Diego doesn't pull out a rabbit at home and that KC lays down for us and we don't play down to their level - and, of course, that nothing bad happens to our team. All in all 7 still seems pretty solid guess from last spring. I wonder how I stack up against Mike Brown's front office internal projections/expectations. In my Poll some 70% said 9 or more wins this year and insulted me and my lineage for calling it as I see it. Would love to hear anyone who still wants to argue for 9+ wins :-) ...

By NorwayMike on Mar 20, 7:16p Time to get serious, we know what MB is not going to do in the free agency market, namely pick up impact players, and his draft won't vary much from expectations, so what does his master plan get us next year in terms of wins? My prediction:
1)Sweep Cleveland

2)Take one of 4 from pittsburgh steelers or Baltimore

3)Beat Oakland and, it looks like Miami at home.

4)Beat either Jags or San Diego, not both, on the road

5)If we're lucky, steal one from KC (vastly improved through free agency) or the Washington Redskins despite our LLLOOOONNNGGG history of losing to 1st year QBs

6) Lose 3 to NFC east and to Peyton-led Denver Broncos" class

I see 6 wins likely, max 7 wins if everything goes right again this year like last. Great job building on 2011 MB! What think the rest of the paying public?

Poll

Total wins for season 2012-2013

3-5

6 votes

6

2 votes

7

7 votes

8

4 votes

9

2 votes

10

2 votes

11

3 votes

26 votes | Poll has closed

Get Johnny Stewart and it's a wonderful life in Cincinnati!

NorwayMike — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 10:01:28 -0000

The Bengals should be doing everything they can to get Jonathan Stewart into the fold. We have the picks and the need. Stweart is only 25 years old and is rated #1 on the ranking of elusive backs (those that gain yards after contact by profootballfocus.com's calculations). This inability to gain yards after contact has been the MAIN knock on CB. To compare, CB is 55 of 56 RBs; Bush is 50 of 56; BJGE is 43; Lynch is 15 and Forte 11 of 56. Jonathan Stewart is #1. number friggin 1.

If we could swing a trade for Stewart (instead of trading up for the unproven Trent Richardson) we could draft DeCastro to solidify the line and get that corner we want so badly with the second 1st rounder. Finally, most of the LBs or WR people are projecting are later round choices as well. The talk is that Carolina wants at least a 3, the Bengals could easily part with a 2 and come out with a brilliant offseason (never thought I'd write that).

Imagine if you will (from L to R) Whit-Wharten-Cook-DeCastro-Smith blocking for BJGE-Stewart-Scott and buying time for Gresham-AJ-Shipley-and a role player to be named. I think we should go for Burress for redzone situations (he's still one of the best receivers in redzone situations, a major weakness the Bengals had) - and bring on the young guys in other passing situations. That is something to be feared! The Bengals should be doing everything they can to get Jonathan Stewart into the fold. We have the picks and the need. Stweart is only 25 years old and is rated #1 on the ranking of elusive backs (those that gain yards after contact by profootballfocus.com's calculations). This inability to gain yards after contact has been the MAIN knock on CB. To compare, CB is 55 of 56 RBs; Bush is 50 of 56; BJGE is 43; Lynch is 15 and Forte 11 of 56. Jonathan Stewart is #1. number friggin 1.

Given how FA is shaping up, how many wins do you expect next season?

NorwayMike — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 16:15:35 -0000

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2012 OPPONENTS
Home
Baltimore Ravens" width="55">	Cleveland Browns" width="55">	Pittsburgh Steelers" width="55">	Arizona Cardinals" width="55">	Houston Texans" width="54">	Indianapolis Colts" width="55">	San Francisco 49ers" width="55">
Away
			Jacksonville Jaguars" width="55">	St. Louis Rams" width="54">	Seattle Seahawks" width="54">	Tennessee Titans" width="54">

Time to get serious, we know what MB is not going to do in the free agency market, namely pick up impact players, and his draft won't vary much from expectations, so what does his master plan get us next year in terms of wins? My prediction:

1)Sweep Cleveland

2)Take one of 4 from Steelers/Baltimore

3)Beat Oakland and, it looks like Miami at home.

4)Beat either Jags or San Diego, not both, on the road

5)If we're lucky, steal one from KC (vastly improved through free agency) or Redskins (despite our LLLOOOONNNGGG history of losing to 1st year QBs

6) Lose 3 to NFC east and to Peyton-led Broncos

I see 6 wins likely, max 7 wins if everything goes right again this year like last. Great job building on 2011 MB! What think the rest of the paying public? -->

2012 OPPONENTS
Home
Baltimore Ravens" width="55">	Cleveland Browns" width="55">	Pittsburgh Steelers" width="55">	Arizona Cardinals" width="55">	Houston Texans" width="54">	Indianapolis Colts" width="55">	San Francisco 49ers" width="55">
Away
			Jacksonville Jaguars" width="55">	St. Louis Rams" width="54">	Seattle Seahawks" width="54">	Tennessee Titans" width="54">

1)Sweep Cleveland

2)Take one of 4 from Steelers/Baltimore

3)Beat Oakland and, it looks like Miami at home.

4)Beat either Jags or San Diego, not both, on the road

5)If we're lucky, steal one from KC (vastly improved through free agency) or Redskins (despite our LLLOOOONNNGGG history of losing to 1st year QBs

6) Lose 3 to NFC east and to Peyton-led Broncos

I see 6 wins likely, max 7 wins if everything goes right again this year like last. Great job building on 2011 MB! What think the rest of the paying public?

Poll

Given the way MB has conducted our offseason and the probable draft choices we will take, how many wins will the Bengals get in 2012

0 - 5

3 votes

6 - 8

26 votes

9

28 votes

10-12

34 votes

13-16

2 votes

93 votes | Poll has closed

The Ballad of Mediocre Mike Brown

NorwayMike — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 18:19:57 -0000

Come and listen to the story ‘bout a boy named Mike,

A born disappointment, his Pa disgusted by his sight

Then one day he was being a lawyer sh#t,

When into his lap fell a team ownership

(Bengals they were, black stripes, winning ways)

Well the first thing you know, Mikey thinks he's got a pair,

as he rakes in the bucks, and he leaves the cupboard bare

Sad Cincinnati is the place he wants to be,

‘cause we gave him a crib, yep, he got it for free!

(Incompetent he is, cheap too)

Well now it’s time to say good-bye to Mike and all his kin,

They would like to thank the fans for kindly chipping in

We’re all invited back next year to watch this travesty,

To choke on a helping of the Bengal’s ignominy

(Free agents you see, that’s what others are signing now,

skilled and in their prime, ya’ll come back now, ya hear!)

Come and listen to the story ‘bout a boy named Mike,

A born disappointment, his Pa disgusted by his sight

Then one day he was being a lawyer sh#t,

When into his lap fell a team ownership

(Bengals they were, black stripes, winning ways)

Well the first thing you know, Mikey thinks he's got a pair,

as he rakes in the bucks, and he leaves the cupboard bare

Sad Cincinnati is the place he wants to be,

‘cause we gave him a crib, yep, he got it for free!

(Incompetent he is, cheap too)

Well now it’s time to say good-bye to Mike and all his kin,

They would like to thank the fans for kindly chipping in

We’re all invited back next year to watch this travesty,

To choke on a helping of the Bengal’s ignominy

(Free agents you see, that’s what others are signing now,

skilled and in their prime, ya’ll come back now, ya hear!)

Poll

It has been noted that "Mediocre Mike" could be seen as a compliment, so the choices for inclusion in a revised title are (all decisions are mine and may or may not reflect the desires of the voting masses):

Mad Mike

1 votes

Malicious Mike

0 votes

Monotonous Mike

0 votes

Miserly Mike

8 votes

Marginal Mike

6 votes

keep "Mediocre Mike" it's damning by faint praise!

5 votes

20 votes | Poll has closed

Why not Nicks, why not the Bengals?

NorwayMike — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 18:47:46 -0000

With the Bengals, why do all the analysts want Cincy to draft an unproven guard or go for Ben Grubbs (6'3" - 310lbs.) over Carl Nicks (6'5" - 343lbs.) on the OL to replace Bobbie Williams (6’4" – 340 lbs.)? Nicks is a proven monster that is good with pass and rush blocking. You can pair him up with the slowly improving Andre Smith (6'4" - 334lbs. - 25 years old) and have a young, punishing right side for the next 10 years. Or move him to left guard with Andrew Whitworth and no one ever blindsides Dalton again. It fits right in with the Bengals large, multi-position-capable philosophy for OL players, but at a whole new level. Of course it would cost more, winning consistently does, but then the Bengals have the cash and Nicks-Smith or Nicks-Whitworth could anchor the line for YEARS to come. And if A. Smith’s foot continues to plague him, your right side is still functional with the upcoming talent.

It's not that I don’t think Grubbs would be a good acquisition; he is a very respectable second choice. But the pairing Nicks with Smith, 677lbs. of proven offensive line pounding the stud AFCN defenses each and every offensive play, opening holes for Bush, Benson(or whoever), and blocking for Dalton as he roles right looking for AJ is something that is the difference between being very good and being elite! I am an in the trenches guy and someone like Nicks comes along very rarely. That said, if the bidding enters the stratosphere I'll gladly take Grubbs off the Ravens hands to stabilize the right side of the line.

If MB is serious about winning (part 2)

NorwayMike — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 18:37:52 -0000

I have been looking at the available free agents and trying to match need and opportunity for the Bengals. The Bengals have a once in a generation opportunity to raise the team to a new level and become a consistent contender. Mike Brown, in his waning years, could remake his legacy of amateur futility and refill PBS. The point here is to fill gaping holes with LONG-TERM solutions that are guaranteed to add impact for years. That means on offense the Bengals need to: (1) Put in place the last piece of a top class offensive line to protect Dalton and give him time to get the ball to the receivers and to create holes for the next 2-4 primary running backs that will run for this QB (2)Complement AJ and join the rest of the competitive NFL with 2-3 top tier threats in the passing game (3) Get a young running back to mature with this QB and receivers (4) Add power and rushing ability to the defensive line linebackers (5) Begin the process of repairing the critical damage caused by the JonJoe departure and Hall injury (6) Solidify the safety position.

The first position of critical need to look at is right guard. Without the right protection up front any investment in QB, receiver or running back is wasted. Some mock drafts have the Bengals choosing a new guard in the first round. This would be a mistake. Why put a first round rookie next to a slowly maturing Andre Smith when a larger, proven player entering the prime of his career is available? Sure you will have to pay, but the Bengals are one of the few teams that can! The reason I chose Nicks #1 is that his age (26), size (6'5"/345) and skill (elite run blocker and pass protection) make him a no brainer long term investment. You will get every dollar back on each and every offensive down. And imagine, on short yardage, run right behind Nicks and Smith. In year five of an eight or nine year deal he’ll be a steal. World Class!!

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS(age/size/weight)
*Saints*	*Carl Nicks*	OL	1	*26/6.5-343*
Packers	Scott Wells	OL	4	31/6.2-300
Eagles	Evan Mathis	OL (RG)	3	30/6.5-302
Ravens	Ben Grubbs	OL	2	27/6.3-310

The next position is receiver. This is probably the position that offers the most choices for serious upgrade. The clear best choice is Mike Wallace of the Steelers. Not only are the Steelers cash-strapped, meaning he’s likely available, but this choice would affect 2 possibly 3 games (playoff matchup) every year. It makes the Steelers, who now must deal with an aging Rothlisberger and a new OC, much weaker while it makes the Bengals considerably stronger. You know what he can do within the division and matching his speed and youth with AJ's talent and Shipley’s toughness would create a trio that Dalton could grow with for years. The choices are between:

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS
Chiefs	Dwayne Bowe	WR	4	27/6.2 – 221 : avg 14.3 TD5
Chargers	Vincent Jackson	WR	5	29/6.5-230 : avg 18.4 TD9
Rams	Brandon Lloyd	WR	9	30/6.0-188 : avg 13.8 TD5
Cowboys	Laurent Robinson	WR	3	26/6.2-197 : avg 15.8 TD11
Giants	Mario Manningham	WR	8	25/6.0-185 :avg 13.4 TD4
Eagles	DeSean Jackson	WR	7	25/5.10-175 :avg 16.5 TD4
Saints	Marques Colston	WR	2	28/6.4-225 : avg 14.2 TD8
Colts	Pierre Garcon	WR	6	25/6.0-210 : avg 13.5 TD6
*Steelers*	*Mike Wallace*	WR	1	*25/6.0-199 : avg 16.5 TD8*

Now on to running backs. CB, with his 2011 3.9 YPC is not a bad choice to hang on to if he can be had cheap and frees up cash for other positions of greater need. Especially if he runs behind Nicks and Smith on the right side. I wouldn’t break the bank for a new running back this year but if Arian Foster is somehow magically available I would definitely go for it. As with the "Wallace rule" he makes the Bengals better and a potential playoff opponent weaker. A close second and third choice is Lynch and Bush. Lynch is higher on my list because of his age, while Bush’s power and receptions are intriguing even if his 3.8 YPC are lower than CB’s. I include McClain on the list because of the possibility running CB behind McClain-Nicks-Smith offers in the AFC North.

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS
Chiefs	Le’Ron McClain	FB	4	27/6.0-260 : avg 3.4 TD1
Raiders	Michael Bush	RB	3	27/6.1-245 : avg 3.8 TD7 REC37 TD1
Seahawks	Marshawn Lynch	RB	2	25/5.11-215 : avg 4.2 TD12 REC28 TD1
*Texans*	*Arian Foster*	RB	1	*25/6.1-229 : avg 4.4 TD10 REC53 TD2*
Bears	Forte	RB		Franchise?/injured
Ravens	Rice	RB		Franchise

On the defensive side, we have two positions worth attempting to upgrade/deepen ASAP. The first position is cornerback. I have ceaselessly whined about the loss of JonJoe to the Texans. I personally think that this loss may have cost us at least three critical games (Baltimore, Steelers and Houston regular season) and possibly contributed to Hall’s injury (overworked against #1 receivers). That said, the Bengals have to move on. They need to create interceptions and slow down opposing passing attacks in the closing minutes of close games. If they draft the projected CB in the first round they will need at least one more experienced player to man this position. My choice would be to make a run at Marshall with Carr a very close second, especially considering his age and the fact that the Bengals play the Chiefs this year. I could be convinced here to change my mind. Or go after both.

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS
*Chiefs*	*Brandon Carr*	CB	1b	*25/6.0-207 : S0 INT4 T45*
Titans	Courtland Finnegan	CB	3	28/5.10-188 : S1 INT1 T75
*Cardinals*	*Richard Marshall*	CB	1a	*27/5.11-198 : S2 INT3 T78*
Falcons	Brent Grimes	CB	4	28/5.10-183 : S0 INT1 T35

As to the linebackers, I think there is only one choice – Mario Williams – and then the rest. Of course he will cost money but he, like Nicks on the offensive line, is an investment that will pay off for years to come. His unique strength size and speed makes him a clear upgrade and an instant improvement to our ability to pressure the opponents QB. In addition, he will be unbelievably motivated in any future matchups with Houston, a team that the Bengals, if successful, are likely to meet in key games for years to come.

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS
Browns	D’Qwell Jackson	LB	5	28/6.0-240 : S3.5 INT1 T158
*Texans*	*Mario Williams*	*LB/DE*	1	*27/6.6-290 : S6(8 )INT0 T11(55)*
Vikings	Erin Henderson	LB	6	25/6.3-244 : S1.5 INT0 T70
Lions	Stephan Tulluch	LB	4	27/5.11-240 : S3 INT2 T111
Seahawks	Davids Hawthorne	LB	2	26/6.0-246 : S2 INT3 T115
Falcons	Curtis Lofton	LB	3	25/6.0-241 : S1 INT2 T147

These are the players I would put the highest priority on for an immediate upgrade. There are three other positions I would also pursue as much for the opportunity as for the need. On offense, you have Jermichael Finley as a young, stud upgrade as another target for Dalton. On defense, the addition of Soliai to an already solid run stopping front makes the mouth water while the availability of Avril has to be recognized.

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS
Redskins	Fred Davis	TE	2	26/6.4-258 : REC59 avg 13.4 TD3
Vikings	Visanthe Shiancoe	TE	4	31/6.4-250 : REC36 TD3
Houston	Joel Dreessen	TE	3	29/6.4-245 : REC28 avg12.6 TD6
*Packers*	*Jermichael Finley*	TE	1	*24/6.5-247 : REC55 avg 13.9 TD8*

TEAM	PLAYER		POSITION		My Ranking		STATS
*Dolphins*	*Paul Soliai*		DT		1		*28/6.4-355 : S0 INT0 T27*
Jets	Siona Pouha		DT (NT)		3		33/6.3-325 : S1 INT0 T58
Denver	Broderick Bunkley		DT		2		28/6.2-306 :S0 INT0 T43

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION		CHOICE		STATS
Colts	Robert Mathis	DE		3		30/6.2-245 : S9.5 INT0 T43
Patriots	Mark Anderson	DE		2		28/6.4-255 : S10 INT0 T29
*Lions*	*Cliff Avril*	DE		1		*25/6.3-260 : S11 INT1 T36*

No one in their right mind thinks the Bengals can add many of these players but these are the ones I would target. Landing two or more of the key players or a combination of two key (Nicks/Wallace) and one of the other defensive players and a solid draft could put the Bengals on the map for years to come. The Bengals have built through the draft. But they are reaching the point where they have to start WINNING consistently. They need now to solidify the core so that the draft builds on success. It can’t be an unending project that never reaches maturity. As exciting as this past year was, the Bengals won a lot of games due to last minute heroics, backed into the playoffs, were outclassed by Houston and are facing a tougher schedule against teams all projected to be better than last year. The Bengals get no credibility for good drafts or player potential, if teams were measured by this yardstick Tampa Bay and Philly would have been in the playoffs. A weak free agent offseason will be a huge setback for the Bengals, even if they have a good draft. A weak free agent offseason and I will guarantee a return to below .500, ridicule, players in their hearts looking for the exit, endless soul-searching, coaching turnover, empty seats, and a return to business as usual in the Bengaldom.

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS(age/size/weight)
*Saints*	*Carl Nicks*	OL	1	*26/6.5-343*
Packers	Scott Wells	OL	4	31/6.2-300
Eagles	Evan Mathis	OL (RG)	3	30/6.5-302
Ravens	Ben Grubbs	OL	2	27/6.3-310

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS
Chiefs	Dwayne Bowe	WR	4	27/6.2 – 221 : avg 14.3 TD5
Chargers	Vincent Jackson	WR	5	29/6.5-230 : avg 18.4 TD9
Rams	Brandon Lloyd	WR	9	30/6.0-188 : avg 13.8 TD5
Cowboys	Laurent Robinson	WR	3	26/6.2-197 : avg 15.8 TD11
Giants	Mario Manningham	WR	8	25/6.0-185 :avg 13.4 TD4
Eagles	DeSean Jackson	WR	7	25/5.10-175 :avg 16.5 TD4
Saints	Marques Colston	WR	2	28/6.4-225 : avg 14.2 TD8
Colts	Pierre Garcon	WR	6	25/6.0-210 : avg 13.5 TD6
*Steelers*	*Mike Wallace*	WR	1	*25/6.0-199 : avg 16.5 TD8*

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS
Chiefs	Le’Ron McClain	FB	4	27/6.0-260 : avg 3.4 TD1
Raiders	Michael Bush	RB	3	27/6.1-245 : avg 3.8 TD7 REC37 TD1
Seahawks	Marshawn Lynch	RB	2	25/5.11-215 : avg 4.2 TD12 REC28 TD1
*Texans*	*Arian Foster*	RB	1	*25/6.1-229 : avg 4.4 TD10 REC53 TD2*
Bears	Forte	RB		Franchise?/injured
Ravens	Rice	RB		Franchise

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS
*Chiefs*	*Brandon Carr*	CB	1b	*25/6.0-207 : S0 INT4 T45*
Titans	Courtland Finnegan	CB	3	28/5.10-188 : S1 INT1 T75
*Cardinals*	*Richard Marshall*	CB	1a	*27/5.11-198 : S2 INT3 T78*
Falcons	Brent Grimes	CB	4	28/5.10-183 : S0 INT1 T35

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS
Browns	D’Qwell Jackson	LB	5	28/6.0-240 : S3.5 INT1 T158
*Texans*	*Mario Williams*	*LB/DE*	1	*27/6.6-290 : S6(8 )INT0 T11(55)*
Vikings	Erin Henderson	LB	6	25/6.3-244 : S1.5 INT0 T70
Lions	Stephan Tulluch	LB	4	27/5.11-240 : S3 INT2 T111
Seahawks	Davids Hawthorne	LB	2	26/6.0-246 : S2 INT3 T115
Falcons	Curtis Lofton	LB	3	25/6.0-241 : S1 INT2 T147

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	My Ranking	STATS
Redskins	Fred Davis	TE	2	26/6.4-258 : REC59 avg 13.4 TD3
Vikings	Visanthe Shiancoe	TE	4	31/6.4-250 : REC36 TD3
Houston	Joel Dreessen	TE	3	29/6.4-245 : REC28 avg12.6 TD6
*Packers*	*Jermichael Finley*	TE	1	*24/6.5-247 : REC55 avg 13.9 TD8*

TEAM	PLAYER		POSITION		My Ranking		STATS
*Dolphins*	*Paul Soliai*		DT		1		*28/6.4-355 : S0 INT0 T27*
Jets	Siona Pouha		DT (NT)		3		33/6.3-325 : S1 INT0 T58
Denver	Broderick Bunkley		DT		2		28/6.2-306 :S0 INT0 T43

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION		CHOICE		STATS
Colts	Robert Mathis	DE		3		30/6.2-245 : S9.5 INT0 T43
Patriots	Mark Anderson	DE		2		28/6.4-255 : S10 INT0 T29
*Lions*	*Cliff Avril*	DE		1		*25/6.3-260 : S11 INT1 T36*

If MB is finally serious about winning...

NorwayMike — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 22:34:35 -0000

If Mike Brown is serious about winning and winning now there are some free agent moves he needs to attempt ASAP. For once the Bengals need a sense of urgency from the front office that rejects a return to the status quo for the last 20 years (one good season, five bad seasons, one mediocre season, five awful seasons, etc. etc.) The Bengals have the league's largest cap room and Palmer is gone so they don't need that "reserve." It is not just a matter of drafting guys who will take years to develop and then move on once they reach playing maturity. Or catch other teams cast-offs (the Cowboys/Bears/49er connection) and see if they hit. He needs to pick up proven impact players that meet demonstrated needs to build on this season, 'cause it aint getting any easier next season!

There are four or five players on the free agent market the Bengals should prioritize in order to get the right combination of experience, performance and need. On the offensive side of the ball they should target receiver Marques Colston to complement AJ Green. This is a throwing league and he would add serious value to our investment in AJ and Dalton. All signs are that the league has entered a permanent era of airball and two number one receivers are a necessity to compete at the highest levels. Finally, he comes from a place where they share the ball and where team comes first. There needs to be a hard worker with The Ring to help the team succeed at the next level. The other guy the Bengals need to swipe from the perennial playoff and one-time Superbowl-winning Saints is offensive guard Carl Nicks. We need fresh blood to help protect Dalton and a load that can help open the holes for our first-round-pick, rookie running back. Again, this pick-up immediately adds value to Dalton and the running back.

On defense, they should make a serious move for Mario Williams (double move, the Bengals could face Houston again in the playoffs) to augment the pass rush and solidify the linebacking corps (say it aint so Rey! not more unnecessary lost time by a starter!). The ability to disrupt the opponent's passing game is as important as the ability to pass in today's NFL, and Mario's 6'6" frame adds to the height movement on defense the Bengals initiated a few years back. As a defensive end to create multiple DE packages on passing downs, Osi Umenyiora would be "nice" to create a top tier pass rush and bring the aura of The Ring to the defensive unit. This is also a double move (strengthens us/weakens them) as the Bengals face the Giants this season. Next on the must have list is Asante Samuel. The cornerback situation is a mess, given last season's JonJoe fiasco (I admittedly have trouble letting go of that one) and the question mark that is Hall. Samuel would provide immediate stability at cornerback and give the Bengals time to develop some longer term solutions. Oh, and they play the Eagles this season as well.

Draft picks should focus on a top flight running back and safety and then look for premium corners and add depth to the offensive and defensive lines. Exactly who these players are and in what order depends on who the Bengals resign and pick-up, and is therefore an article for another day. The point now is that we are beyond the point where we have to hope rookies perform in order to succeed, it's time to grow up, grow a pair, and join the big boys in the win-now league.

Is the whole wish list do-able? I seriously doubt it. Will it cost money? Oh yeah, buckets full! How much can we afford? Depends on how imaginative the front office is and how high the bidding wars go. Should the Bengals be aiming this high? Without a doubt - it's either that or a new generation of elite players get dragged down into the morass that is the more recent history of the Bengal-Way.

We're just tired of the "good enough" mentality of Mike Brown

NorwayMike — Mon, 26 Dec 2011 19:31:53 -0000

If Cincinnati politicians had a brain in their heads they would have bought the stock instead of letting Mike Brown get his hands on it. We could have been 30% on our way to owning the team like Green Bay (not just the half-empty stadium)and getting rid of amateur hour.

I have been a diehard fan since the Bengals were founded and was actually happy to see the last of Palmer and, especially, Ocho. But after keeping so many "star" players who did not want to be in Cincinnati, letting Jonathan Joseph, who wanted to be there and the only all-pro on the team walk to a conference opponent they would play THIS YEAR was almost too much to take. Keeping him would have, I believe, resulted in at least 2 more wins (starting with the 1 point loss to Houston) and probably kept Hall from overwork and injury. How do you not lock down that tandem when you are so far under the cap?

Brown does just enough to keep attendance respectable but is ALWAYS a few starters and many backups short of fielding a Superbowl winning team. We are always rooting for future potential, never for a mature product. I love the Bengals, I still watch every game,went to spring training, love the heart and effort in the players, but I am tired and really don't dare to think that they have a championship team. And Sunday, when Torrey Smith is streaking down the sideline and our secondary suffers another one of its many breakdowns (you can't always expect the opponents to trip) we will wallow in the fact that this all could have been so much more if Brown had even a little competence and vision

It's time to choose, Dalton or Newton?

NorwayMike — Sun, 25 Dec 2011 02:49:19 -0000

	Arizona	Tennessee	Indianapolis	Jacksonville	Houston	TOTAL
Dalton	1	1	1	1	0	4
passing yards	154	217	264	179	189	1003
rushing yards	48	4	-1	0	2	53
Passing TD	2	3	1	2	1	9
Rushing TD	0	0	0	0	0	0
INT	0	0	0	1	0	1
QB rating	92,7	97,9	118,5	85,3	89,7	96,82

	Arizona	Tennessee	Indianapolis	Jacksonville	Houston	TOTAL
Newton	0	0	1	1	1	3
passing yards	422	212	208	158	149	1149
rushing yards	18	55	53	27	55	208
Passing TD	2	0	0	1	2	5
Rushing TD	1	0	1	0	0	2
INT	1	1	0	0	0	2
QB rating	110,4	61,7	95,9	75,4	105,2	89,72

Although I believe the Offensive ROY was awarded after week 2, I think there a reasonable argument can be made for Dalton over Newton. I have argued earlier that the Bengals basically face top 7 defenses while the Panthers face bottom five defenses in the games they do not have in common. Interestingly, they face 5 common opponents (about 1/3 of the season) this year. It gives us a unique opportunity to compare two rookie QBs having fantastic years. Above I highlight the game-by-game statistics for these QBs and I would argue that Dalton has performed better. He has more TDs (9 vs 7), a higher QB rating and more wins.

	Arizona	Tennessee	Indianapolis	Jacksonville	Houston	TOTAL
Dalton	1	1	1	1	0	4
passing yards	154	217	264	179	189	1003
rushing yards	48	4	-1	0	2	53
Passing TD	2	3	1	2	1	9
Rushing TD	0	0	0	0	0	0
INT	0	0	0	1	0	1
QB rating	92,7	97,9	118,5	85,3	89,7	96,82

	Arizona	Tennessee	Indianapolis	Jacksonville	Houston	TOTAL
Newton	0	0	1	1	1	3
passing yards	422	212	208	158	149	1149
rushing yards	18	55	53	27	55	208
Passing TD	2	0	0	1	2	5
Rushing TD	1	0	1	0	0	2
INT	1	1	0	0	0	2
QB rating	110,4	61,7	95,9	75,4	105,2	89,72

The Myth of the Bengals easy schedule (preseasonus mentalitatis)

NorwayMike — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 22:05:40 -0000

It is way past time to put to rest the preseason myth that Dalton has had a much easier schedule to work with than Newton!

Total wins by Carolina's opponents through week 11 = 53. Total wins by Bengal's opponents = 49. The difference is more than made up by the two outliers, the Bengals played Indy and Carolina played Green Bay. The idea that Dalton is playing a weaker schedule than Newton is just false if you look at the facts. But the analysts who tout the ROY for Newton are stuck in their preseason mentalities. In addition, if you look at common opponents, Dalton won and scored 30 on Jacksonville while Newton scored 16 in their win. Newton scored 3 points in their loss to Tennessee while Dalton scored 24 the week before in his victory over Tennessee. Total wins of opponents on the remaining schedule Carolina =28; Cincinnati = 30. By the time the season is over they will have faced 3 more common opponents (for a total of 5) and Cincinnati will have evened up the number of home games (Carolina has had 2 more home games than the Bengals up till now, meaning Dalton is winning on the road!). Instead of anointing Newton in week three or week 11 based on false assumptions and bad facts, why don't we wait until we have a full body of evidence to compare them? I am confident that Dalton wins out, if we avoid a rush to judgment.

And if you love stats, the average passing yards per game allowed by the defenses that Newton has faced is 240.6, good enough for a 21st place ranking. Whereas the average passing ypg allowed by defenses that Dalton has faced is 220.2, good enough for a 7 place ranking. If you project that over the rest of the schedule Dalton will face an average ranking of 7 place (201,8 pypg) whereas Newton will continue to face an avg ranking of 21 (241,1 pypg). In addition, there are really no outliers that skew these numbers. Week on week off Dalton faces top 10 pass defenses while Newton puts up those gaudy numbers facing bottom 11 pass defenses. And Dalton still has 3 times as many wins, more TD's, fewer interceptions, and 4 come-from-behind 4th quarter wins to Newton's zero. Dalton is leading his team at an unbelievable level, and that leadership is a qualitative indicator not found in stats!

It is way past time to put to rest the preseason myth that Dalton has had a much easier schedule to work with than Newton!