Bowl Eligibility Report

 

Currently there are 35 Bowl Games, meaning that to fill the spots, 70 teams need to get to six wins apiece.  There is a good chance that this may not happen this year.

 

As of today there are 54 teams eligible. Up to 35 other teams could achieve eligibility.  More of these 35 face uphill battles to get to six wins than not. In addition, one of those 35 is Notre Dame, who traditionally does not accept invitations to lower tier bowl games. 

 

Breakdown by conference after the jump:

 

ACC:

 

Bowl-eligible:

 

Virginia Tech, Maryland, Miami, North Carolina State, North Carolina, Florida State

 

Ineligible:

 

Wake Forest, Virginia*, Duke (*Virginia is 4-6, but with 2 wins against FCS competition)

 

Work-to-do:

 

Boston College (5-5): UVA, @Syracuse

Clemson (5-5): @Wake, South Carolina

Georgia Tech (5-5): Duke, @Georgia

 

All three teams seem likely to pick up one win from their next two, but losing out wouldn’t be inconcievable for any.

 

ACC Eligible: 6

Possible: 9

 

Big 12:

 

Bowl Eligible: Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M

 

Ineligible: Kansas

 

Work-to-do:

 

Texas Tech (5-5): Weber State, Houston

Iowa State (5-6): Missouri

Colorado (5-6): Nebraska

Texas (4-6): Florida Atlantic, Texas A&M

 

Texas Tech will get to six wins. Iowa State and Colorado both need big upsets in their finales.  Texas certainly CAN beat A&M, but I’m doubtful that they haven’t completely given up.

 

Big 12 Eligible: 7

Possible: 11

 

Big East:

 

Eligible: USF, West Virginia, Syracuse

 

Ineligible: none

 

Work-to-do:

 

Pittsburgh (5-4): @USF, @Cincinnati, West Virginia

Connecticut (5-4): @Syracuse, Cincinnati, @USF

Louisville: (5-5): West Virginia, @Rutgers

Rutgers (4-5): @Cincinnati, Louisville, @West Virginia

Cincinnati (3-6): Rutgers, @Connecticut, Pittsburgh

 

My analysis is that the NCAA is obviously rooting for all teams to finish 6-6 because if they hold the New Mexico Bowl and only the last place team from the Big East shows up, it DOES in fact still exist.

 

If, as has been theorized, every Big East game is decided by secret coinflip, then probabilities would be: Pitt (87.5%), Uconn (87.5%), Louisville (75%), Rutgers (50%), Cincinnati (12.5%).

 

Big East Eligible: 3

Big East Possible: 8

 

Big Ten:

 

Eligible: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan

 

Ineligible: Minnesota

 

Work-to-do:

 

Illinois (5-5): vs. Northwestern, @Fresno State

Purdue (4-6): @MSU, Indiana

Indiana (4-6): vs. PSU, @Purdue

 

Illinois really screwed things up for themselves by losing to Minnesota. Now they need an upset in one of their last two, although both games are manageable. Things are looking dire for Purdue and Indiana.  The Dallas Football Classic picks 7th from the Big Ten.  It is the first game on New Years Day. If they get two in the BCS (likely), and Illinois doesn’t scare up a win (very possible), then we’re looking at a MAC team* to wake up to after New Years Eve. Texas Tech vs. Toledo! Taste the excitement!

 

*This assumes there are ANY teams available, of course.

Big Ten Eligible: 7

Big Ten Possible: 9

 

Conference-USA:

 

Eligible: UCF, Tulsa, UTEP, Southern Miss, East Carolina

 

Ineligible: UAB, Memphis, Rice

 

Work-to-do:

 

SMU (5-5): Marshall, @ECU

Houston (5-5): @Southern Miss, @Texas Tech

Marshall (4-6): @SMU, Tulane

Tulane (4-6): UCF, @Marshall

 

Marshall and Tulane play each other, so the max from C-USA is 8. In addition, Marshall and Tulane also each have likely losses against SMU and UCF respectively, so those don’t look likely. SMU doesn’t want to have to get #6 @ECU, and likewise for Houston @Texas Tech, so their upcoming games have to be considered must-win.  Seven teams is conceivable, but five might be more conceivable.

 

C-USA Eligible: 5

C-USA Possible: 8

 

Independent Teams:

 

Army and Navy are qualified.  Notre Dame is 5-5 and could become bowl eligible, but they traditionally do not go to lower tier bowl games.  In this year of a shortage of teams, they (and USC) could create a serious issue.

 

Independents Eligible: 2

Independents Possible: 3

 

MAC:

 

Eligible: Northern Illinois, Toledo, Ohio, Temple, Miami (OH)

 

Ineligible: Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Akron

 

Work-to-do:

 

Western Michigan (4-6): Kent State, @Bowling Green

Kent State (4-6): @Western Michigan, Ohio

 

One of these teams will have one shot at getting eligible after they play each other. Do I know anything about the personnel of either team or those they are playing? No.

 

MAC Eligible: 5

MAC Possible: 6

 

Mountain West:

 

Eligible: Utah, TCU, San Diego State, Air Force

 

Ineligible: New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV

 

Work-to-do: BYU (5-5): New Mexico, @Utah

 

New Mexico is a W. @Utah is problematic. Good thing they only need 6 to get to the New Mexico Bowl. With TCU likely going BCS, the Mountain West won’t fill all of its slots even WITH BYU.

 

Mountain West Eligible: 4

Mountain West Possible: 5

 

Pac-10

 

Eligible: Oregon, Stanford, Arizona (yes really, that’s it)

 

Ineligible: USC, Arizona State (4-6 with 2 FCS wins), Washington State

 

Work-to-do:

 

Cal (5-5): Stanford, Washington

Oregon State (4-5): USC, @Stanford, Oregon

UCLA (4-5) @Washington, @Arizona State, USC

Washington (3-6) UCLA, @Cal, Washington State

 

Washington COULD run the table. UCLA MAY get two wins from those three games. The least likely scenario belongs to the best team of the four, Oregon State, who will probably be at home because they scheduled two Top Ten teams non-conference*. Arizona State screwed themselves by scheduling two FCS teams.  And of course, with USC being ineligible and the Pac-10 cannibalizing itself with an extra conference game, it’s really a perfect storm this year.  It is eminently possible for the Pac-10 to only get three bowl teams.  And two could go BCS.

 

*And lost to Wazzu, obviously.

 

Pac-10 Eligible: 3

Pac-10 Possible: 7

 

SEC:

 

Eligible: Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Mississippi State, Alabama, Kentucky

 

Ineligible: Vanderbilt

 

Work-to-do:

 

Georgia (5-6): Georgia Tech

Tennessee (4-6): @Vandy, Kentucky

Mississippi (4-6): @LSU, Mississippi State

 

Holy crap, Tennessee could totally go to the Liberty Bowl! It’s down to one game for Georgia, obviously. Ole Miss is probably done.

 

SEC Eligible: 8

SEC Possible: 11

 

Sun Belt:

 

Eligible: None

 

Ineligible: North Texas, Western Kentucky, Louisiana-Lafayette

 

Work-to-do:

 

Troy (5-4): @South Carolina, WKU, @FAU

FIU (4-5): @ULL, ArkSt, MTSU

FAU (4-5): @Texas, @MTSU, Troy

Arkansas State (4-6): @Navy, @FIU

Louisiana-Monroe (4-6): North Texas, Louisiana-Lafayette

Middle Tennessee (3-6): @WKU, FAU, @FIU

 

Florida Atlantic vs. Texas looks intriguing at this point, doesn’t it? The NCAA needs some of these teams to get to 6 wins desperately. Either FIU has to lose twice, or one of MTSU or Arkansas State has to lose, so the maximum here is five. Only getting one is completely plausible.

 

Sun Belt Eligible: 0

Sun Belt Possible: 5

 

WAC:

 

Eligible: Boise State, Nevada, Hawai’i, Fresno State

 

Ineligible: New Mexico State, San Jose State

 

Work-to-do:

 

Louisiana Tech (4-6): @San Jose State, Nevada

Utah State (4-6): Idaho, @Boise State

Idaho (4-6): @Utah State, Fresno State, @San Jose State

 

Idaho gets an extra game, which is huge. Two wins are possible. Presumably the Humanitarian Bowl will be pulling for them, so they don’t have to take Miami of Ohio or someone similar. Things look bleak for the other two, particularly Utah State.

 

WAC Eligible: 4

WAC Possible: 7

 

 

I do this every week, and I realized that other people might find this useful.  I present my viewing guide for tomorrow.  I have ordered games by start time and how much I want to see each game.  It makes for easy flipping during commercials, half time, etc. Start times are Central Time, and the listed games are those available on DirecTV in Iowa City.

 

 

11:00 am

Iowa at Indiana – Big Ten Network

Wisconsin at Purdue – Big Ten Network

Minnesota at Michigan State – Big Ten Network

Illinois at Michigan – ESPN

Maryland at Miami (FL) – ESPNU

Baylor at Oklahoma State – Comcast Sports

Air Force at Army – CBS College

 

2:30 pm

 

TCU at Utah – CBS College

Alabama at LSU – CBS

Hawaii at Boise State – ESPNU

Northwestern at Penn State – ESPN2 (SD)

Nebraska at Iowa State – ABC

 

6:00 pm

 

Arkansas at South Carolina – ESPN

Oregon State at UCLA – Versus

Oklahoma at Texas A&M – Comcast Sports

Louisiana-Lafayette at Mississippi – ESPNU

 

7:00 pm

 

Arizona at Stanford – ABC

Texas at Kansas State – ESPN2

Tennessee at Memphis – CBS College

 

9:00 pm

 

Arizona State at USC – Comcast Sports

Todd Lickliter had this to say in this morning's Gazette: "“Our team is actually in almost every category improved over last year, except for obviously wins and losses.”

Oh really? Is that so?

Could he mean the offense? This year the offense scores .981 points per possession. Good for 213th in the country. Wedged between Columbia and Cal State Fullerton. So last year's offense must've been REALLY bad then? No. A respectable 1.051 points per possession. 108th in the country.

So the defense must be far improved, right Coach? This years defense gives up 1.05 points per possession, good for 246th in the country. Wedged between Northern Arizona and Santa Clara. What about last year's defense? 1.029 points per possession. So last year's defense was really bad - but this years is demonstrably worse.

So, Iowa is improved in almost every category except wins, losses, offense, and defense? So, where exactly are we better, Coach?

“We have more possessions per game, scoring a little bit more, we’re getting it inside a little more, we’re scoring more two-point goals."

Coach Lickliter is right, there are more possessions this year. Last years team averaged 56.7 possessions/game. That's the lowest number in all of college basketball, 344 out of 344. This year's team averages an explosive 63.9 possessions per contest - 317th in the country.

That's great, except that 1) Iowa's playing "faster" as teams have figured out to press and run against the Hawkeyes to speed up the game and force (a lot of) turnovers. 2) The best way for an overmatched team (Iowa) to have a chance is to reduce the sample size of possessions in order to minimize the talent gap. See the first halves against Texas and Purdue, for example. So that "improvement" isn't helping Iowa win games.

It's also true that Iowa is scoring more (raw) points per game. This year they've scored 64.7 ppg vs. last year scoring 63.2 ppg. However, that difference is entirely the product of the aformentioned pace increase, and, in reality, the offense is significantly worse this year.

So, that leaves an increase in 2-pointers. Last year 40.7% of Iowa's points came on 2-pointers. That's 342nd in the country. Only Drake and VMI had lower percentages. This year? 43%. 337th in the country. Yippee! Coach was right! I'm so glad he's citing improvement in a statistic that he so transarently couldn't give two shits about! We ARE improving! Statistics are from Scott Dochterman's article in the Gazette and kenpom.com. Quotes are from Dochterman.

via img24.imageshack.us

I saw it mentioned somewhere, but it isn't getting nearly enough play.  After the third quarter last week against Indiana, Rick Stanzi leads the nation in interceptions. That's bad.  Fortunately, he also leads the nation in victories.  That's good. That these two pieces of data exist together both puzzles and amuses me. To illustrate, I have created a helpful graph. My MS paint ability is not great enough to do justice to Stanzi's zen ability in this field, but I think you will get the general idea.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1) USC

2) Oklahoma

3) Florida

4) Ohio State

5) Georgia

6) LSU

7) Texas

8) Wisconsin

9) Alabama

10) Auburn

11) Missouri

12) West Virginia

13) Penn State

14) South Florida

15) Texas Tech

16) South Carolina

17) Tennessee

18) Kansas

19) Utah

20) Wake Forest

21) BYU

22) California

23) Miami (FL)

24) Arizona State

25) Oregon

Notes:  Was thoroughly unimpressed with Missouri against Illinois.  Gave up 450 passing yards to Juice Williams.  And that's supposed to be a Top 10 team?  Not yet. 

USC looked ridiculous, and, as always, fun to watch, even in a blowout. 

Alabama looks legit - I think most people agree on that.

What has South Florida shown people to make them think they are a top 10 team?  I don't get it.

Most of the list is very speculative and "power-poll-y"

I know, I know, there are so many football demises to choose from, it's impossible to narrow it down to five - well - I'll keep the list recent -  so as to impart my personal feeling on the hilarity of the demise.  These are ranked primarily by how much I laughed during and/or after the the game.

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