This is the second of my published pieces and this involves profiles on three players: Tim Murphy, Clark Murphy, and Corey Young.  As I mentioned in the Neil Ramirez fan post, I will periodically check back and answer any questions readers might have, but I will be out till later this afternoon.

89. Tim Murphy | LHP

via www.baseball-intellect.com

Deceptive, hides ball well, stays closed, doesn't really show the ball into just before release.

Not efficient with his body. Tucks his arm behind his hips, but he keeps it there for too long in my opinion. Murphy works between 87 - 91 mph, but his velocity might be more consistent if he didn't lose out on the rotational forces a pitcher needs to produce velocity. I slow down the key sequence in his delivery. Watch how the upper body is uncoiled forward, but notice the arm is still rising to its loaded position, meaning it isn't in position to come along for the ride.

Yes, the Rangers could work with Murphy to make these adjustments, but like any adjustment, making them is easier said than done because other facets of the delivery need to be changed due to timing differences. You also have to deal with a variety of issues such as muscle memory--how well the muscles adapt to a change in one's mechanics

WIth that said, he is deceptive, his curveball is close to plus, and his control is solid. I'm not sure he has the quality kind of stuff to be a starter at the major league level but nothing wrong with a quality arm out of the bullpen.

153. Clark Murphy | OF | B - L

via www.baseball-intellect.com

Murphy is one reason you have to take the use of these video clips with a grain of salt, especially ones in which contact was rarely made and the player appeared to injure himself multiple times.

All of the above occurred in Murphy's draft video, but the mechanics of his swing look pretty good.  His best swing actually came on a pitch he swung-and-missed on (above).  He really loads his hand with a jerk of the bat away from his body and then back.  He keeps his swing pretty short in the process.

He looks to take an aggressive hack at the ball and it appears, should he make contact, it would be after he let it travel deep into his hitting zone.  All this lends itself to solid power.

The tendency for him to swing and miss could be from a number of issues.  It often appeared he was too far out in front, meaning he was possibly fooled on some sort of breaking pitch.  Nevertheless, Murphy put up some fantastic numbers in the Arizona League and should monitored as we head forward.

353. Corey Young | LHP

via www.baseball-intellect.com

I like guys with unique or deceptive mechanics and Young is one of those types.  He's got a fast tempo (number of frames from the point in which the knee reaches it's upper most point to release), but he isn't a high-velocity thrower mostly because he doesn't efficiently use his body in that he doesn't achieve good separation of the torso and hips...similar to the problem Tim Murphy suffered from.  His arm isn't in position to come along for the ride.

However, Young is deceptive in that he has a relatively long stride, he looks like he throws harder than he actually does, and his pitches have some quality movement on them.  He's got a lot of tailing action on his fastball, but can get in trouble when he leaves it up in the zone.  His curveball is more of a frisby type curve that you can see below.

via www.baseball-intellect.com

He has a lot of parts to coordinate so there is a question of whether his command will be good at higher levels of competition.

He's not a flashy pick nor a high upside pick, but he's another player that could be useful for the Rangers out of their bullpen.  His ability to generate ground balls will also be welcome at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

Hope this article provided a little more in-depth information on these prospects and again thanks for the support.

Hi everybody, before I begin, I wanted to express my appreciation to the Lonestar community as it has been among the most supportive of the work I do for Baseball-Intellect and I guess you can say readers here have been among the most "link-happy" readers.  I wanted to reward you guys for the support given to me.

I am creating two fan posts--one being a follow up on my article on Neil Ramirez and the other being a review of three draft prospects--Tim Murphy, Clark Murphy, and Corey Young.  I will also pop in periodically to answer any questions people might have.  I have to leave for now, but will be back later this afternoon.

As for Ramirez, there is an interesting comment in the fan shot posted by t ball from NoNameOnCard.  Here it is:

I don't know if it's selection bias or not...

but in the fastball and curve videos he picked to show Ramirez’s delivery, Ramirez’s motion is remarkably consistent. Typically, even the best pitchers in the game have more of a variance between their fastball and curve.

Eisenberg mentioned it briefly, but when coupled with Ramirez’s stuff, the deception this creates is otherworldly.

I looked earlier so I’m not sure if Eisenberg fixed it, but the sideview wasn’t working properly this afternoon. The high elbow is really only a concern with regard to timing. From the front-view photos, it’s hard to tell exactly when his elbow drops back down. Typically, problems only occur if a pitcher picks that elbow up and then drags his arm behind his shoulders while still picking up the ball.

Eisenberg mentions some violence in Ramirez’s delivery, but the examples he shows really don’t accent that point. In fact, the examples he chose look pretty impressive from a mechanical standpoint with the elbow position being the only obvious question mark.

Just my opinion, feel free to react or not.

It touched on several points and hopefully I can help expound on some of the points raised:

1. Thank you for pointing out the graphic of Ramirez from the side angle was not working.  It is fixed now for everybody to see.

2. Ramirez's motion is certainly consistent...this is where his athleticism helps him

3. Selection Bias - this is obviously part of the limitations on using video, but I do my best to take a pitch representative of what the pitcher usually throws...unless I try to make a point about the problems a pitcher exhibits.  The fastball is typical for him.  The curveball was among his better one's thrown.  His motion, as mentioned earlier is similar for each pitch type.

4. The high elbow...that's an excellent point of when the elbow drops back down because the point of maximum stress on the shoulder is the actual rotation to release, not the point in which the elbow rises above the shoulder.

Personally, I'm not big on predicting injuries.  I just take note of the risk factors involved.  I collected clips from most of the 30+ pitchers who had either a torn labrum or rotator cuff and there was no single mechanical attribute that showed up in each pitcher, or even a majority of the pitchers.  You had pitchers with a wide variety of mechanics and arm actions.  It's easy to take a few pictures of injury prone pitchers with similar mechanics and make it appear a high percentage of pitchers with those mechanics get injured.  But that's not really the case.

I'll go more into pitcher injuries in future articles.

5. Violence...it doesn't really show up in the behind the catcher views.  You'll notice in the side view that Ramirez's velocity isn't easy...it's sneaky, but he appears to use a lot of force with each pitch.  I reference the hat almost being knocked off his head after the release of each pitch.

I would recommend watching Ramirez in full-speed (see pick 44) to get a good feel for how deceptive he is and how forceful the release of each pitch is.  He has tremendous arm speed.

But remember, violence/aggression does not equal injury.  Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't.

In any case, comments like the one by NoNameOnCard do an excellent job of generating discussion and allow me to expand on what I write in each article so thanks again.

Hey guys, I thought everybody would be interested in this piece.  I wrote it about a week ago, but I wanted to wait until Harden's second start to post it here.  And despite the loss, he didn't disappoint in his performance.  Here is the link:

Rich Harden

What the article does is break down Harden's mechanics, stuff, and outlook for future health.

Harden (I guess over the offseason) made some changes to his arm action.  In my view it looks smoother than in 2007 and less stressful for the arm.

I must add...Harden's fastball/change-up combo is just sick.  If you scroll down to where it says "Stuff", you'll see just how similar a plane each pitch comes in on, which is partly why he is so difficult to hit.

For discussion purposes, try to put all biases aside and factor in the players given up in both deals...what pitcher would you ultimately want: Harden or Sabathia.

My opinion is that while Harden has the better raw stuff, Harden's health risk makes me take Sabathia.  But when you factor in the Cubs receiving a quality pitcher in Chad Gaudin, you have to figure that the Cubs got the better value.  So Iike the Harden/Gaudin deal better but would prefer Sabathia over Harden though tonight's start does make me question if that's the right call.

In any case, hope you enjoy the read.  Thanks again.

Hey guys, I'm in the middle of a draft review for the Hardball Times and I am looking for input.

Justin Smoak was not apart of the first installment, but this was because I had already created a scouting report on him before the draft using the usual video analysis, which readers can get here:

Justin Smoak

Congrats on getting this guy because as an Oriole fan, he was the guy I wanted all along.  And to get him at 11 is a real coup.  I found this interesting tidbit over at McCovey Chronicals via Baseball Prospectus:

College first basemen are the most valuable group of draft picks by an enormous margin. College first basemen selected in the first round have gone on to have Hall of Fame-caliber careers approximately one-third of the time.

Now, for this draft, you'll see me report on Harold Martinez and I'll probably do Robert Ross.

But now I need your input on other prospects (draft related) you would like to see broken down.  I can't promise to do everyone, but I promise to come back and break down 3 or 4 of the guys you choose specifically for Lone Star.

So let me know.

Hey guys, I'm in the middle of a draft review series for THT over the next few weeks, and I want some suggestions for players to look at.

I've already done a profile on Jemile Weeks , who while I think is an overdraft, should still give the A's some solid value once he is ready for major league pitching.

I'm already planning to do break downs on players up to pick 50, but I realize Oakland didn't have a selection after Weeks until 58.

So here are some thoughts on some Oakland picks:

58. Tyson Ross - I've seen scouting reports that have his velocity up to 94 or 95, but the video doesn't show that.  It showed him working in the mid - upper 80's and his mechanics bear that out: little use of his lower body, short stride.  Of course, the video was taken in 2007, and I'm very interested to see the changes made to his mechanics that allowed him to see a jump in velocity.

90. Preston Paramore - I liked what I saw, though I didn't see many swings (maybe that is due to his plate discipline), but he put a solid swing on the ball and let it travel relatively deep.  Not a lot of upside, but I like him nonetheless.

214. Brett Hunter - I like this pick.  Ross never really used his lower body, but Hunter maximizes his use of his lower body as evidenced by his mid-90's velocity.  I saw pretty good control as well and he could move quickly.

394. Daniel Thomas - shows good control and pretty solid 3 or 4 pitch mix.  Can get his fastball up to 93 with movement and I think he has some more velocity left in the tank as well

664. Preston Guilmet - this was a pure results-oriented pick.  He put up great #s at Arizona, but when you watch you see an awkward wind-up (helping with deception), and pretty fringy stuff.  He does all the things pitchers need to do like change speeds, pitch backwards, etc, but we'll see what happens....definitely a results vs. scouting battle here.

So if there any suggestions for players to profile (including more in-depth breakdowns on the players above) please let me know

Hey guys, in case anybody is interested I have a breakdown of Justin Smoak's swing mechanics here:

Justin Smoak 

I know he is a long shot to fall to the Nationals, but I think he would be a clear choice for if he were to fall.  I found this tidbit from Baseball Prospectus via the McCovey Chronicals:

College first basemen are the most valuable group of draft picks by an enormous margin. College first basemen selected in the first round have gone on to have Hall of Fame-caliber careers approximately one-third of the time.

First, let me point out this scouting report on Brandon Tripp that people should find interesting since it gives you video of his swing and the adjustments he has made since being drafted:

Brandon Tripp report 

Second, and I'm not sure if anybody has noticed, but Chris Tillman has been excellent his past two starts:

12 IP, 0 Runs, 4 Hits, 15 Ks, 5 BBs

Remember, just 20 years old and close to dominating in Double-A.  People don't realize he is the youngest pitcher in Double-A.  The second youngest?  Clayton Kershaw.

Jake Arrieta has also been dominating, striking out close to 30% of batters faced and he has had five starts in which he has gone at least five innings and allowed no more than two hits.

Matt Wieters continues to pummel Frederick, maintaining an OPS over 1.000

Billy Rowell has heated up after a slow start with an .877 OPS in May.  He still is striking out way too much and hitting the ball too often on the ground, but it is still nice to see him hitting well right now.

Add in the success of David Hernandez, Brad Bergesen, and Jason Berken in Double-A plus the emergence of little talked about Zach Britton, a projectable lefty in Delmarva that has showed off plus control and a GB% of 69% and there is a lot to like in the minors.

Hey guys, I thought everybody would be interested in this article Brandon Wood.  I know the guy has gotten off to a fairly miserable start at the major league level thus far, but my feeling is that Wood should at least become a low average, high power, good fielding SS as long as he works past any extended slumps that are bound to happen due to his propensity for striking out. I conducted a scouting report on Wood, which I link to below:

Brandon Wood 

Wood's value would obviously be much higher at SS than at 3b.  However, I do have a question: does Aybar have SS locked down?  His glove is sick, but I do still have some questions about his bat.

Hey guys, I thought readers might be interested in this piece on Tyler Colvin.  It isn't a positive review of Colvin, but readers who have not seen his swing might be interested in taking a look.

I've never really been high on Colvin because his plate discipline has been atrocious his entire career and while he is a good athlete, I don't see him as a guy who has all these great tools and just needs to put it together.

Now, he is walking slightly more this year, but his K's are way up and his power is down.

It is always possible the light bulb goes off in a player's head and they do put it all together, so I'm not completely writing the guy off, but the terrible K:BB ratio is just a giant red flag.  I think this should be a lesson for teams to be wary of college hitters who don't show much plate discipline and only show modest power, especially in the first round.  The link to the article is below, for anybody interested:

Tyler Colvin Scouting Report 

I'm sure many readers have heard of him, but if not he is a fourth round pick of Dodgers out of Newbury high school in CA.  I view him as a player that should be closely watched as he has the capability of breaking out in a big way.  I did a write up for him that includes some video of him here:

Andrew Lambo 

To start off, he's very young for his league and has already very solid power while still having a good amount of projection left.  He makes consistent, hard contact and has a very good looking swing.  He does need to cut down on the K's.  And there were questions about his character heading into the draft.

For discussion, are there any other really under the radar guys that could have a rocket type rise up the prospect rankings in the next couple years?

Hey guys, I'm not a Rockies fan, but I thought you would be interested in this piece on Dexter Fowler.  The article allows you to get a feel for the mechanics of his swing from both sides of the plate.

Already a great defensive player, and already possessing great plate discipline, his power was really the only question mark and that seems to have been answered this year.  I am still trying to find video on him from this year because his swing from last year (especially from the right side) were not conducive to hitting for power.  

Dexter Fowler vs. Tyler Colvin

You guys should be excited about the prospects of him patrolling center field for years to come.

Also, I'm sure you guys are aware Franklin Morales was sent down to AAA tonight.  Tomorrow I am publishing an article on his struggles and I'll say this:

His loss of velocity is solely mechanics based and his loss of control is based on overthinking his new mechanics that are supposed to improve his control.  I hope that makes sense.

I have video of him from last year and this year and the differences are clear in my opinion.

I have a couple scouting reports using video analysis on Dexter Fowler and Tyler Colvin.  Both players have gone in completely different directions as players this year.  Both were similarly rated coming into this season, but both had questionable numbers and one has broken out (Fowler) and the other has not (Colvin):

Dexter Fowler vs. Tyler Colvin

My thoughts on Fowler:

Already a great defensive player, and already possessing great plate discipline, his power was really the only question mark and that seems to have been answered this year.  I had video on Fowler from last year, but I am still trying to find video on him from this year because his swing from last year (especially from the right side) were not conducive to hitting for power.

Thoughts on Colvin

I've never understood the hype Colvin has gotten.  He is a good athlete, shows moderate power, and can play an average CF.  However, his plate discipline is awful.  Not many players succeed at the major league level with a 10:1 K:BB ratio.  I'm also not crazy about his swing.

If there is somebody that was really high on Colvin heading into the year, I would love to hear the reasons because I just don't see it...

Hey guys, I run the website Baseball Intellect and first let me say I am not a Twins fan, but I think readers would be interested in this piece on Francisco Liriano.  There have been many articles that have analyzed the stuff Liriano displayed on Sunday, but I want to show you the changes in his mechanics using some video from Sunday and video of him in 2006.

The link to the full article is below:

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles/francisco-liriano-injury.html

But I want to explain a couple things...there is a clear difference in his mechanics, especially his arm action.  Given that he has made just one major league start since returning from surgery, we won't know the full effect of his mechanical changes until probably some time next year.

But the Twins definitely went the "safer" route.  And so I ask readers what I ask myself in that article...if you had a choice between Liriano with safer mechanics (but lets say he becomes a normal #3 starter) or a Liriano as his Cy Young caliber self but with his riskier, more aggressive mechanics, which version do you choose?

I have five that come to mind:

Chuck Lofgren, Indians

Luke Hochevar, Royals

Greg Reynolds, Rockies

Matt Harrison, Rangers

Kevin Mulvey, Twins

The full breakdown with the video breakdowns of these players is at the link below:

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles/most-overrated-pitchers.html

However, I want to talk about the tell signs that all these guys have in common and, which seem to fit the classic description of players usually viewed to be overrated in my view (besides the fact they're all white).  

A few of them are:

1. All were drafted relatively high (Round 4 or higher)

2. All have peripheral stats that are less than inspiring

3. All have decent stuff with an assortment of pitches that all rate around average, but nothing that rates as a true out pitch

4. The phrases "pitchability", "feel for pitching", "big game pitcher", "excellent make-up" all apply to the above pitchers in one way or another.

Those four signs (and I'm sure there are others that I'm missing are some basic tell signs of pitchers that rank somewhere in the top-125 (or top-60 for a couple of the players listed above) that they are likely overrated.

Is there any pitchers you think are overrated and do you have any tell signs that you always look for to spot overrated pitching prospects?  If so, let's hear them.

I'm sure some of you remember me posting my scouting report on Fautino de los Santos a while back (btw the entire Stockton rotation has gotten off to an excellent start I've seen), but I wrote an article for the Hardball Times, this time looking at Aaron Cunningham.  I know he is injured at the moment, but I like what he brings to the table.

He does everything well, has plus-make-up, gives the team a lot of versatility.  His swing overall is solid though he does a couple things I'm not sure I like.  

But you can take a look and draw your own conclusions.  Hopefully you guys enjoy it.

The article link is below:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/hitting-prospects-to-watch-in-2008/

Hey guys, I said in the Zach Phillips thread that there would be a Chris Davis article soon to be published.  Well, it was delayed a bit, but it is finally online.  The article was published for Baseball Digest Daily

To read the full article, click here

I don't really have much to say on Davis except that he swings really, really hard and it is evident in the animation provided.

Also, at the time I wrote the article, I did not know he had already moved from third base to first base.  Was his defense that bad at third or were there other reasons behind it?

Either way, his value only goes down a little and I still really like his bat.

Hey guys, first let me introduce myself.  My name is Alex Eisenberg and I run the website Baseball Intellect.  At this site, I provide scouting reports and use both statistical and scouting methods to break down players.  If I can, I use video of players to supplement my scouting reports.

I'll have some work published with Baseball Digest Daily and I had my first article published today for the Hardball Times.

Now, I wanted to provide you guys with a scouting report on an under the radar prospect in Jose Martinez.  I did not have video on him, however.  But I think you guys will find the information on him interesting.

I also exchanged e-mails back and forth with Larry, and he gave me some players that might interest readers here...Anthony Reyes is a guy that definitely piques my interest.

In any case, I hope you find the article a good read.  

On the heels of the Mil opening day, I found this piece over at the Hardball Times that gives a breakdown of Spoone using some video of him.

From there, I found this piece on David Hernandez.  I like the depth we've built up in terms of pitching, but we've got some work to do in terms of hitting prospects.

Continue reading this post »

John had a post asking: true or false is Homer Bailey is overrated?

I posted that he was.  I explain why in detail in this article:

Homer Bailey - Ace or Talented Underachiever?

My reasoning:

1. Performance doesn't really match talent.  

He has put up good/very good numbers over his career, but I don't think they have ever been as good as his overall talent says they should be.  Last year, he regressed and I don't think his injured groin was the only thing that caused his numbers to drop as he was struggling with his mechanics and displaying stuff that wasn't up to par before that injury happened.  I think there are consistency issues here.

2. Mental make-up.

There has always been a lot of noise in regards to just how committed he is, whether he knows how to actually pitch, etc.  He still a great prospect, but top-10 I don't think he is.

Continue reading this post »

Hey guys, I'm not a Ranger fan, but I thought you might find this article interesting (link below):

www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles/mid-level-to-top-10.html

The article includes a breakdown of Zach Phillips, who most of you I'm sure are aware, resides in the Rangers farm system.  He gets lost in the shuffle of all the young arms the Rangers have stockpiled, but he is a sleeper to watch in my book.

The scouting report gives you an idea of what he looks like, the quality of his stuff, and the soundness of his mechanics. 

Continue reading this post »

I asked people for their underrated prospects about a week ago, but I was really going for underrated top prospects.  Now, I want to ask people about under the radar prospects...prospects that are not seen on most top-10 lists, but stand a chance to make the leap into their organization's top-10 prospects this year.

A more detailed analysis is available at the link below:

www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles/mid-level-to-top-10.html

The Short Version:

1. Bobby Parnell (Mets) - inconsistent, needs better command, but he has made great strides the past couple years, has two MLB-quality pitches, and keeps the ball on the ground

2. Logan Morrison (Marlins) - solid production at a young age in a pitcher's league (Sally)

3. Zach Phillips - gets lost in the shuffle of young Ranger arms, but features a solid curveball and an average fastball...he looks like he could add more velocity down the road

4. Jose Martinez (Cardinals) - a SS that does a lot of things well, but nothing great...plate discipline needs work

5. David Hernandez (Orioles) - good stuff, good command, led the Carolina League in K%, but needs to keep the ball down a bit more

6. Dustin Richardson (Red Sox) - good stuff, aggressive mentality, likely will end up as a reliever at the big league level

7. Bobby Henson (Orioles) - raw, athletic, and put up good numbers in a pitcher's park at a young age...if he can stay at SS, his value greatly improves

Continue reading this post »

*formerly sportsman885, but registered under NoVaO for SB Nation

Give me your most underrated prospects.  I came up with a list of 6 names.

You can get a better idea of their stuff and pitching/hitting mechanics by clicking here

But below is a summary of guys I view as underrated or overlooked (among top prospects):

Continue reading this post »

I think readers here will find this breakdown of Henry Sosa an interesting read, as you can visually get a feel for the quality of Sosa's stuff and how clean his mechanics are.

I think he is a high-risk prospect, but shouldn't be overlooked because his arm is outstanding.

Here is the link:

The Most Underrated Prospects in Baseball | 2008 Prospect Preview Series

Continue reading this post »

Hey guys, I think you might be interested in this article about Fautino de los Santos, which allows you to get a better feel for the quality of his stuff and how he looks mechanically.

Personally, I loved the guy last year with the White Sox and feel he is the gem of all the prospects you guys acquired over the offseason.

Here is the link (opens in same window):

Fautino de los Santos Scouting Report

Continue reading this post »