SB Nation User Blog: Numbers

Winners Wear Red - Especially in MMA

Numbers — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 03:25:58 -0000

Newscientist.com published a story I found interesting for obvious reasons:

Imagine you are an experienced martial arts referee. You are asked to score a number of taekwondo bouts, shown to you on video. In each bout, one combatant is wearing red, the other blue. Would clothing colour make any difference to your impartial, expert judgement? Of course it wouldn't.

Yet research shows it almost certainly would. Last year, sports psychologists at the University of Münster, Germany, showed video clips of bouts to 42 experienced referees. They then played the same clips again, digitally manipulated so that the clothing colours were swapped round. The result? In close matches, the scoring swapped round too, with red competitors awarded an average of 13 per cent more points than when they were dressed in blue (Psychological Science, vol 19, p 769).

And, further down the story, referring to Olympic combat sports:

When they analysed the results they found that shirt colour appeared to influence the result, with nearly 55 per cent of bouts being won by the competitor in red. In closely fought bouts it was 62 per cent (Nature, vol 435, p 293). "It should have been roughly 50 per cent red, 50 per cent blue, and this was a statistically significant deviation," Barton says. "Skill and strength may be the main factors - if you're rubbish, a red shirt won't stop you from losing, but when fights were relatively symmetrical, colour tipped the balance."

The author goes on to offer a proposed explanation for the phenomenon:

In nature, red is often used to signal dominance and aggression, and in humans this is reinforced by cultural symbols such as warning signs and stop signals.

"Closely fought bouts....relatively symmetrical fights...." Hmmm, sounds to me like split decisions in MMA.

More after the jump...

I decided to test the accuracy of this and its applicability to MMA. I decided to pick the biggest MMA organization in the world - the UFC - and decided to examine all events from 2008 and 2009 to date.

I set the ground rules as follows:

I would look at all fights that ended in split decision or majority decision only. No unanimous decisions, and of course no stoppages.
I would consider a fighter to be "wearing red" if his trunks were entirely or substantially red. Substantially means at least half the trunks are red; white trunks with lots of red lettering were not considered to be red.
I would note who got the nod in the split decision and whether this was consistent with or violated the "winners wear red" theme; or whether there was "no action" meaning neither fighter was wearing red trunks.

The results once compiled were very surprising to me due to their absence of ambiguity:

By my count there have been 33 UFC events in 2008 and 2009 to date. There have been 34 split/majority decisions. Of these, 16 were "no action" meaning neither fighter wore trunks that were substantially or completely red. Of the remaining 18 bouts, the fighter wearing red won 13 split decisions and lost 5. This means that in the past 20 months of UFC fights, a fighter who wore red trunks won a split decision 72.2% of the time against an opponent not wearing red.

It's also worth noting that among the "no action" fights, there was a clearcut bias toward red; the fighter whose trunks contained more of the color tended to win more often than lose. Only a couple of the "no action fights" were lost by a fighter whose trunks had more red than his opponent.

There were two fights in which one man's shorts were entirely red while his opponent's were half red. The former won on both occasions.

Because I am a skeptic by nature, I was very surprised by these results even after having read the article. I find myself in agreement with the article's closing:

Given that the influence of colour on our behaviour is so prevalent, it's shocking that we aren't more aware of it.

I am guessing this topic is something about which most MMA competitors are probably unaware; but it appears to be a very real phenomenon with important implications for one's success in the sport in this age of increasing parity.

Nine Rematches that Need to Happen in 2010

Numbers — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 03:40:01 -0000

In the world of MMA, not much inspires the excitement and anticipation of fans like a rematch whose time has come. Wanderlei Silva vs. Rampage Jackson II, Matt Hughes vs. Frank Trigg II, and more recently Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir II and BJ Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre II are all fights that generated a tremendous amount of chatter and speculation among fans.

As we look forward to the fight cards that will finish 2009 then, and look ahead to 2010, here (in no particular order) are nine rematches that need to happen sometime in the next year.

Anderson Silva-Dan Henderson II: This one sells itself. Henderson is arguably the only man to steal a round from Anderson Silva in the UFC, and many feel his style and skillset are the most suited to dethrone Silva from his perch atop the UFC 185-pound weight class. With Anderson having all but cleaned out the division, and Nate Marquardt and Dan Henderson standing as clearcut 1-2 contenders or equal #1 contender, as well as Henderson's recent statement that the only fight he wanted at 185 was a rematch with Silva for the belt, this fight needs to happen. Anderson recently announced he was done through 2009 but this is a title fight rematch that should occur in early 2010.

Josh Thomson-Gilbert Melendez II: Melendez, once considered at 13-0 to be a top-5 lightweight in the world, lost some of his luster with a decision loss to Mitsuhiro Ishida in the 2007 Yarennoka! event and then a second loss two fights later to current Strikeforce 155-pound champ Josh "the Punk" Thomson. Thomson outfought Melendez in every way imaginable en route to a 5-round decision victory at the June Strikeforce card. Gilbert recently avenged his first career loss with a dominant 3-round TKO stoppage of Ishida stateside on Strikeforce's August card - a fight that was originally scheduled to be a Melendez-Thomson rematch for the title. With this rematch now twice scheduled and scrapped, and Melendez having avenged his first loss with authority, the time is right for these two - champion and interim champion - to meet again in the cage and deliver another blockbuster.

Forrest Griffin-Rampage Jackson II: Quinton "Rampage" Jackson seems to always have exciting fights; and his UFC 86 five-round war with Forrest Griffin was no exception. Voted 30th most exciting UFC fight of all time by the fans, this 25-minute battle for the light heavyweight title was as close as a fight can possibly be, with arguments burning to this day as to who rightfully won the fight; even a drawn fight, that rarest of results, seems to be something many fans could accept. Quinton is coming off of two big wins - over Keith Jardine and Wanderlei Silva - while Forrest got waxed by Anderson Silva at UFC 101, so this one still has to simmer for a bit - but there will come a time in 2010 for this rematch.

Vitor Belfort-Wanderlei Silva II: This is one for the fans if not the purists. Usually when one guy steamrolls another, a rematch is not indicated; and steamroll is a good way to describe Belfort's pasting of Wanderlei Silva at UFC's "Ultimate Brazil" in 1998. Belfort overwhelmed Silva with his lightning-fast hand speed, chasing him from one fence to the other in a flurry of strikes that ended the fight in 44 seconds. But that was a decade ago - geological time by MMA standards - and with Wanderlei having uneven results as of late, depending upon what kind of splash Vitor makes in the UFC I could see Zuffa setting up this rematch, possibly overseas where they love to feature "stand-and-bang" main or co-main events.

Matt Hughes-Dennis Hallman III: Where the last one was for the fans, this one is all for Matt Hughes. Sometimes a rematch is indicated due to a close decision; sometimes due to a great fight; sometimes due to an early stoppage. Sometimes a rematch is earned by the loser's subsequent performances, e.g. Jackson-Silva III or Liddell-Horn II. This rematch, when it happens, will join those. Hughes is clearly past his prime now, but is still one of the 2 greatest welterweights in the history of the UFC and, at 43-7, has only lost to three fighters that he hasn't beaten: Jose Pele Landi, Thiago Alves (when already past his prime)...and Dennis Hallman, twice. With Hallman recently re-signing to the UFC, I can see the rematch writing on the wall, with the Zuffa hype machine kicking in: "the only man to ever defeat Hughes twice without suffering a loss...." This is a win-win for Zuffa and Hughes, as Zuffa will get the last bit of PPV-buy mileage out of Hughes due to their hype machine, and Hughes will get a chance to at least somewhat avenge his previous losses to Hallman.

Mirko Cro Cop-Gabriel Gonzaga II: With the "musical chairs" drama following Mirko's UFC 99 win resolved, Cro Cop can get back to the business of trying to make a name for himself in the UFC. On the immediate horizon he will face off with fellow striker Junior Dos Santos at UFC 103; but into 2010, a Gonzaga-Cro Cop rematch will not only be a fantastic fight to watch, and a big draw, but will make sense in the overall heavyweight landscape.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira-Frank Mir II: Mir famously became the only man ever to stop Big Nog, doing so in devastating fashion at UFC 92 in December. Nogueira has since stated that he was suffering from a variety of ailments including staph and a torn knee ligament. With Mir running his mouth in patented Mir style since that fight, and Nogueira's PRIDE-flashback performance against Randy Couture at UFC 102, Nog's competitive fire has been stoked and he has publicly called for a rematch with Mir. There are issues to sort out first - a possible Mir fight with Cheick Kongo, a potential title fight for Nogueira - but this train is on the tracks and it seems inevitable that these two will meet again sometime next year.

Nick Diaz-Robbie Lawler II: One of the fans' 100 favorite UFC fights of all time (criminally ranked 99th - I would have had it a lot higher than that), this 2004 blockbuster featured one of the most unexpected results ever - Diaz standing toe to toe with Lawler, talking trash and employing his patented "Diaz hand wave", and finally catching Lawler on the button for a KO in round 2. With Diaz's training partner Jake Shields recently snapping Lawler's 6-fight unbeaten streak, and with Diaz bouncing up to 185 to fight there, Strikeforce would be smart to reignite this old rivalry inside a new cage and let the fans enjoy watching the evolved skillsets of both these fighters clash once again.

Kenny Florian-Diego Sanchez II: A good old-fashioned grudge match. Sanchez famously wrecked an overmatched and outsized Kenny Florian in the Ultimate Fighter I Finale (where both competed at 185 pounds), forcing the referee to rescue Kenny less than 3 minutes into the fight. Both fighters are night-and-day improved now, well over four years on, and after taking different paths both have landed in the same weight class. In Diego's immediate future is a title shot against 155 king BJ Penn; but at some point in 2010, either as a title fight should Diego steal the strap, or as a contender fight, these two are bound to meet again in the center of the Octagon and produce what will likely stand as an all-time classic.

Grim Reaper Watch 7/31/2009

Numbers — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 02:52:12 -0000

The first of a planned recurring review from yours truly.

In Dana White's pre-UFC 91 Vlog, he shared with us that he is "the Grim Reaper, mother****ers" - the undertaker that brings a swift and certain end to all competitors.

This mindset can be more broadly expanded to Zuffa's growing dominance in many areas of MMA - stable of fighter talent, PPV buys, international presence, mainstream media, you name it. The UFC (/Zuffa) is making rapid inroads toward establishing themselves as the unassailable #1 player in the MMA market. This feature is a weekly roundup of news item relevant to that crusade.

This first installment of the Grim Reaper Watch is chock full of tidbits.

You would have to have spent the week in outer space to not know that Affliction entertainment has folded. Affliction was, despite its infancy, one of the few stateside national-scale competitors to the UFC. Their demise means three things for the UFC: another competitor has closed up shop, much of their talent will fall to the UFC, and Affliction clothing will return to the Octagon - the absence of which (with corresponding sponsorship dollars) has been a bone of contention among UFC fighters.

Following the Affliction meltdown, the UFC (or Zuffa) has picked up much of their talent and is nearing deals with others. During a media presser today, Dana White shared some details:

(Former Affliction fighters) that we do have locked up right now, for sure, Vitor Belfort, Paul Daley, Ben Rothwell, Chase Gormley, Dan Lauzon, (Rafaelllo) Oliveira; and then guys going to the WEC, Javier Vazquez, LC Davis, Mark Hominick; and we’re in talks with all the other guys right now...There are eight or nine (other) guys that we’re in talks with right now. I don’t like to talk about anything until deals are done.

Vitor Belfort and Ben Rothwell are top-10 and top-20 ranked fighters, respectively, in the middleweight and heavyweight class; Oliveira and Lauzon are exciting young prospects at lightweight; and Davis another exciting WEC pickup at featherweight. As with the re-acquisition of Tito Ortiz (below), this carries two advantages for Zuffa - the pickup of the talent itself, and the denial of that talent to competing organizations.

The UFC scored another major coup with the repatriation of prodigal son Tito Ortiz, whom White now says will "retire with the UFC" just as his former nemesis Chuck Liddell will do/has done. As I broke down in this entry, this carries 3 chief advantages for the UFC: another exciting player in the 205 title picture, a fantastic and proven PPV commodity, and depriving their competitors of these advantages.

WEC is moving to expand its global exposure by streaming WEC 42 (and presumably future events) live outside North America on both the WEC and UFC official websites for $9.99. This can only be good for Zuffa as it extends their reach into other markets, opens another revenue stream, and recognizes some viewer revenue for the WEC organization which airs free on basic cable channel Versus in the United States.

The UFC will air on ESPN in the UK and Ireland starting on August 3rd. This follows the loss of the Setanta Sports agreement. UFC 101 on August 8th will be the first event to air live on the station, which will also carry UFC Unleashed. This is an important move for the UFC, as the UK market is proving to be a lucrative one both for UFC revenue and for incubating UFC talent.

Dana White announced at the same presser today that Zuffa is "very close" to finalizing a deal that will "change the UFC forever" - making it clear that he wasn't referring to acquisition of Fedor Emelianenko. Speculation about the nature of this landscape-changer is well underway, and includes everything from major sponsors, to conquering Asia, to huge fighter acquisitions, to a major merger, to UFC in New York, to the teased Aloha Stadium outdoor show, and everything in between. For now, we must wait to learn what Zuffa is cooking up.

Analyzing Tito Ortiz' Return to the UFC

Numbers — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 01:26:02 -0000

With the last of the week's Great Post-Affliction Press Conferences now done, we get a chance to catch our breath and analyze what the changed talent-distribution landscape means for the UFC.

While the big one got away from the UFC yet again, as after the PRIDE purchase, they did pick up a handful of talent from the disbanded Affliction.

One of the week's biggest acquisitions for the UFC - which was not directly related to the Affliction meltdown - was the fighter that left the organization 17 months ago amidst turmoil and bad blood (put mildly) - Tito Ortiz.

More after the jump.

The re-integration of Tito carries with it a few implications for the sport, among which:

The UFC 205 title picture gets more interesting. Tito is a polarizing figure - by design - but his talent is difficult to argue. One of the most dominant of the early UFC champions, his 1-1-1 record against Rashad Evans, Lyoto Machida and Forrest Griffin (all of whom were shortly about to become UFC champions) holds up very well against the other respective opponents of those 3 great fighters; all the more so when you realize Tito really "won" the Evans fight minus a late cage grab and had Machida in an extremely dangerous triangle that would have tapped most.

The UFC is apparently thinking of pitting Ortiz against the risen Mark Coleman in his return; but if Tito can perform to ability in his next couple fights, he will enter the title picture and make some interesting matches against Franklin, Shogun, and the aforementioned three champions, in what is already a shark tank of a weight class.

The UFC picks up a golden PPV goose. Again, Tito is polarizing - it's his nature that not everyone likes him - but it's clear that he is an asset when selling PPV's. His name is as recognizable to the casual fan as anyone else's, and good arguments can be made that in the pre-Brock Lesnar era, only Chuck Liddell was as big of a PPV draw. In an era where the UFC has produced a few shows exceeding the 1,000,000 PPV buys of Tito-Chuck II even among a very sour economy, adding the Tito Ortiz factor to 2-3 events a year is going to do wonders for sales.

The UFC deprives a competitor of a great asset. One advantage the UFC derives is that for their competition (e.g. Strikeforce, DREAM, World Victory Road), Tito becomes The One That Got Away; and the fact that the above two advantages will not accrue to competitors is itself a big win in this turn of events for the UFC. Strikeforce has a lot of charisma and media pull with Carano, Shamrock, and Diaz; the Tito Ortiz puzzle piece would have been a huge asset for them. Denying them this is a major coup.

Tito will finally - deservingly - join Liddell and others in the UFC Hall of Fame. Regardless whether you like the guy or not, you can't make a good argument from accomplishments that Tito Ortiz doesn't belong in the UFC HoF. He did as much as anyone to keep the UFC alive during the Dark Days, he is one of the most dominant champs the organization has had, and in the UFC's breakout years only Chuck Liddell may lay claim to broader mainstream appeal. With the Dana-Tito reconciliation, Tito is a lock for next inductee to the Hall.

The decision by White and Ortiz to bury the proverbial hatchet and move past their differences is the best decision for both men and is likely to result in greater success for both than would have been achieved had this repatriation not occurred.

Quiet Before the Storm: St. Pierre-Alves

Numbers — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 02:12:15 -0000

There are a few huge UFC fights coming our way in the next 5 weeks, including three title fights - in the heavyweight, welterweight and lightweight divisions.

But it's interesting to consider that while Florian-Penn is more than a month away, and Bisping-Henderson is an undercard fight on UFC 100, both of those fights - not to mention Lesnar-Mir - have been the subject of more "chatter" in the MMA blogosphere and forums recently than another fight which is a week away and as big or bigger than any of them: Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves.

GSP is by all accounts one of the top five pound for pound fighters in the game. He arguably hasn't even peaked yet as a fighter, yet he's already in the conversation for the most dominant welterweight in UFC history. He is coming off of his biggest victory - a four-round annihilation of fellow P4P contender BJ Penn - and is 11-1 in the past four and a half years. And in one week, he's facing arguably his biggest challenge in Thiago "Pitbull" Alves. Yet for the relative press this bout is receiving, you would think GSP and Alves were an undercard gatekeeper fight.

The reason why is not incomprehensible. The other big fights all have subplot drama and a fair amount of smack talk to hype them.

Florian-Penn has the intrigue of the clear #1 contender fighting the champ; speculation regarding how Penn will recover from the mauling he took from GSP; allegations that Florian tipped Penn to "greasing" by GSP, and the always-provocative subplot of GSP helping Florian train for the fight.

Mir-Lesnar is a second title fight and is the upcoming fight with a lopsided proportion of ink dedicated to it, fires that have remained stoked by both combatants as they have waged their back-and-forth verbal jousting through the MMA press. It has the further appeal of the grudge match, the freakshow element with Brock's physique and previous life in pro wrestling, the title unification aspect which will likely see both guys' camps carry a belt into the cage, questions about how far Lesnar has evolved since his first loss to Mir - just to name a few.

Henderson-Bisping isn't even a title fight - at best it will be a title contending fight - but it has also gotten its share of attention due to the two being opposing coaches on TUF and waging their own war of words. The UFC manufactures rivalries at times, and this is one that clearly rolled off the factory belts via the "country vs. country" theme of TUF season 9.

Against the backdrop of all of those, the 170-pound title fight that is GSP-Alves has barely made a ripple. Despite the greatness of a dominant champ who will eventually retire as one of the best to enter a ring or cage, facing his toughest test, you can be forgiven for practically forgetting this fight is about to happen if you take your talking points from the MMA media. The reason why is straightforward - while the three fights named above all have at least one or two main plots and multiple subplots, GSP-Alves has one basic plot: who is going to win this fantastic stylistic matchup and emerge as the welterweight champion of the UFC?

It's a purist's fight. It carries little subplot intrigue, essentially no trash talking, two very respectful and dedicated athletes, and sells itself entirely on the stylistic clash of these two dominant fighters. The fight is likely to hinge on whether GSP will be able to put Alves on his back often enough and keep him there long enough - while taking minimal damage on the feet from Alves' brutal muay thai skills - to wear him out as the fight progresses. If GSP can accomplish this, he will win a decision or possibly stop Alves. If he can't, Alves - being the most dangerous and varied striker by far that GSP has faced - could well stop Georges in the stand-up game.

To me this fight has at least one additional point of interest which hasn't been much discussed. GSP has been methodically cleaning out the welterweight division. Referring to the USA Today/SB Nation welterweight rankings, St. Pierre has soundly dominated #3 Fitch in a 25-minute fight; destroyed #5 Hughes twice, brutally stopping him both times; outwrestled and dominated #8 Koscheck; and avenged his loss to #18 Serra with a two-round stoppage. Beyond Alves, this leaves only Kampmann and Swick as imminent UFC challengers. These two are tapped to square off at UFC 103 in September; the winner would in my mind be the #1 challenger. I think either would pose problems for GSP to solve, but are neither as well rounded as Penn and Fitch nor as dangerous as Alves. After that there is a dropoff; I believe Paulo Thiago, Dan Hardy, Karo Parisyan, Brock Larson, Dustin Hazelett are at least 2-3 solid wins from a title shot.

So, characterizing the title-contender queue as a series of hills to get up and over, I view Alves as the last mountain for GSP for the foreseeable future; and should he take the summit, he will have a downhill vantage point to survey any likely near-future challenge. This in itself makes this fight worthwhile to me, as the 170-pound weight class has long been viewed as one of the deepest in MMA and its upper echelon is on the verge of being almost totally cleaned out by Georges St. Pierre.

Subplots are great. Trash talk and side intrigue in MMA is terrific, and I love it as much as the next guy. But save a little room in your anticipation for Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves. It's one of the biggest MMA fights of this generation, and it's just over a week away.

This Day in MMA History - June 28th

Numbers — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:47:51 -0000

This date in MMA history three years ago - 6/28/2006 - UFC held its fifth Ultimate Fight Night, in Las Vegas.

The main card was fairly unspectacular, with three of the four fights going to decision. However, the one decisively violent main-card fight and its winner would soon attain legendary status.

The fight was Anderson Silva vs. Chris Leben.

Silva was known to most fans as the Chute Boxe teammate of Wanderlei Silva in PRIDE, where he amassed some huge wins (Carlos Newton) and huge losses (Ryo Chonan). Last in PRIDE on the Shockwave card on 12/31/04, Silva fought a few times for Cage Rage before signing a UFC contract to debut against Chris Leben at UFN 5.

Disrespected openly by Leben in pre-fight hype, Silva answered all questions resoundingly, scoring a 100% strike-effectiveness consisting of virtually every strike imaginable en route to dismantling the iron-jawed Leben and forcing the referee to save him just 49 seconds into the fight.

Silva has gone on to become one of the most dominant champions in UFC history, demolishing Rich Franklin at UFC 64 to win the middleweight belt and successfully defending it 5 consecutive (and running) times. Interspersed among those title defenses was a planned title fight with Travis Lutter for which the belt was taken off the table after Lutter failed to make weight; and a light-heavyweight debut against James Irvin. Both fights were early stoppage wins for Silva.

Even if he never fights again or wins another title fight, Silva's status is already guaranteed as one of the most dominant - and thrilling - champions in MMA history. He holds the record for most consecutive victories in the UFC (9) and is tied with Matt Hughes and Tito Ortiz for the most consecutive title defenses (5) in the UFC (both records are still ongoing).

Anderson Silva first fought for the UFC 3 years ago today.

Best of MMA 2009 - 6 Month Checkup

Numbers — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:37:13 -0000

Although there's still a week left in June, there are no more major-league MMA (UFC, Affliction, DREAM, Strikeforce etc) events until July. That being the case, it seemed a good time to review the candidates for this year's traditional "best of MMA" voting.

At year end various websites present users and staff with a smorgasbord of categories to pick from in defining The Year That Was in our sport. I'll leave most of the categories - like most improved, fighter of the year, best camp, biggest story, etc - till year end and instead focus only on the blue-chip categories: submission of the year, KO of the year, and fight of the year.

Some candidates I think should be in voters' minds when the tree is up and decorated and the kids are building snowmen - after the jump:

Submission of the year:

Not a large number of breathtaking subs this year. I rounded up half a dozen here, so by year's end there will probably be a good 10-15 solid picks to choose from.

What's good (props to smoogy for the GIFs):

Kitaoka-Gomi, Achilles Lock, R1, Sengoku Rebellion 2009 (1/4/2009)
Faber-Pulver, guillotine choke, R1, WEC 38 (1/25/2009)
Lauzon-Stephens, armbar, R2, UFN 17 (2/7/2009)
Maia-Sonnen, triangle choke, R1, UFC 95 (2/21/2009)
Hioki-Manuel, triangle choke, R1, Sengoku 7 (3/20/2009)
Imada-Masvidal, inverted triangle choke, R3, Bellator 5 (5/1/2009)

Boiling it down to 3, I am going with the 3 triangle chokes....

3rd place - Hioki-Manuel:

2nd place - Maia-Sonnen:

My submission of 2009 so far - Imada-Masvidal:

I know, I am a sucker for a good triangle choke.

KO of the year:

Decent number of good KO's this year. I prefer to err on the side of "knocked the ____ out" for my year-end awards, with relatively few TKO's.

Here's some consciousness-losing goodness:

Vitor Belfort KO's Matt Lindland, Affliction Day of Reckoning (1/24/2009)
Fedor Emelianenko KO's Andrei Arlovski, Affliction Day of Reckoning (1/24/2009)
Lyoto Machida KO's Thiago Silva, UFC 94 (1/31/2009)
Matt Hamill KO's Mark Munoz, UFC 96 (3/7/2009)
Hayato Sakurai KO's Shinya Aoki, DREAM.8 (4/5/2009)
Gilbert Melendez KO's Rodrigo Damm, Strikeforce Shamrock vs. Diaz, (4/11/2009)
Lyoto Machida KO's Rashad Evans, UFC 98 (5/23/2009)
Brett Rogers (T)KO's Andrei Arlovski, Strikeforce Lawler vs. Shields (6/6/2009)

The big 3 are tougher to pick here, but I'm going with:

3rd place - Hamill-Munoz:

2nd place - Belfort-Lindland:

My KO of 2009 so far - Machida-Evans:

Fight of the year:

Some great fights already this year, tough to pick the best...and we are only halfway through! Here are some for your consideration:

Dan Henderson-Rich Franklin, UFC 93 (1/1/2009)
Santiago-Misaki, Sengoku Rebellion 2009 (1/4/2009)
Diego Sanchez-Joe Stevenson, UFC 95 (2/21/2009)
Martin Kampmann-Carlos Condit, UFN 18 (4/1/2009)
Miguel Torres-Takeya Mizugaki, WEC 40 (4/5/2009)
Scott Smith-Benji Radach, Strikeforce Shamrock vs. Diaz (4/11/2009)
Hideo Tokoro-Abe Cullum, DREAM.9 (5/26/2009)
Rich Franklin-Wanderlei Silva, UFC 99 (6/13/2009)
Diego Sanchez-Clay Guida, UFC TUF 9 Finale (6/20/2009)

Even being aware of the "recency bias" as I call it - the increased likelihood of naming something that is more recent simply because it is fresher in your mind - I am taking two fights from June for my top three. Those three are:

3rd place - Torres-Mizugaki:

2nd place - Sanchez-Guida:

My fight of 2009 so far - Franklin-Silva:

What are your top picks for best submission, KO, and fight of the first half of 2009?

What did I miss in my roundup?

This day in MMA history - June 23rd

Numbers — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 23:52:16 -0000

This date in MMA history seven years ago - 6/23/2002 - PRIDE Fighting Championships held PRIDE 21 in Saitama, Japan.

The main event would live on forever in MMA lore. It was a heavyweight tilt between Don Frye and Yoshihiro Takayama.

The staredown alone was incredible, and the fight took it from there to the next level. The beginning of the fight is commonly considered among the most exciting 30 seconds in the history of the sport, as both combatants engaged in 1000-MPH dirty boxing, clenching the opponent's neck with almost no distance between them and throwing literally dozens of right hooks to the head, face and body. That pace could not continue forever, but the remainder was still great, with Frye getting the mount and ending an exhausted Takayama with ground and pound 6:10 into the first round.

The drama and excitement of that fight was immediately evident, but the co-main event revealed itself only in retrospect to be even bigger in the course of MMA history. It was the first appearance in PRIDE of a 25-year old Russian fighter named Fedor Emelianenko.

Fedor had competed mostly in RINGS prior to his appearance in the Japanese super bowl of MMA, bringing a 10-1 record with him into his PRIDE 21 fight with 7' kickboxer Semmy Schilt. Fedor, forced to fight somewhat cautiously due to Schilt's massive frame and K-1 striking, wisely chose to engage him on the ground, taking him down and giving much of the MMA world their first look at his lethal ground and pound.

While Schilt managed to take him the distance to lose a lopsided decision, Fedor's future opponents were not so lucky. Over the course of 7 years and 20 fights since the Schilt bout, Fedor has gone 19-0 with 1 NC and finished everyone he has faced who wasn't named Nogueira or Mirko. Fedor is widely considered not only the best heavyweight in the world, but arguably the best fighter in the history of the sport, irrespective of weight class.

Fedor Emelianenko first fought for PRIDE seven years ago today.

TUF Formula - Effective but Improvable

Numbers — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 18:07:58 -0000

Kevin Iole has a piece on Yahoo! Sports speculating about the future of The Ultimate Fighter show.

Ratings ... have stagnated and while both Spike and UFC officials insist they’re pleased, they don’t mirror the UFC’s pay-per-view growth. Pay-per-view sales have skyrocketed since 2005, but the reality series hasn’t come close to matching the 1.67 household rating from Season 1 or the 1.77 from Season 3.

The show is, in essence, an infomercial for the pay-per-view fight between the coaches that will take place following the finale.

Beginning in Season 6, the ratings have gone 1.29, 1.20, 1.25 and 1.19. While that’s a solid figure and almost unheard of for a cable reality series in its ninth season, the numbers would suggest that some have had their fill of it.

...

[T]he UFC and Spike have to find a way to reinvigorate the series to prevent it from becoming stale, if it already hasn’t.

...

The show is, in essence, an infomercial for the pay-per-view fight between the coaches that will take place following the finale.

TUF has clearly been one of the pillars that has provided structural support to the UFC during its ascent in the past 4 years of the Zuffa era.

I think Iole is short-sighted when he says "The show is, in essence, an infomercial for the pay-per-view fight between the coaches that will take place following the finale." Certainly TUF is that, but it's much more. It provides constant weekly marketing for the UFC, a means to develop stars practically overnight, a vehicle for giving fans someone to root for or against (e.g. Junie Browning, Chris Leben, Diego Sanchez, Josh Koscheck), a sort of "minor-league" feeder system for fighters to break into the UFC, and a more accessible entrance path for all kinds of fighters to get onto Zuffa's radar - which is actually going to be increasingly, not less, important as MMA grows, the number of bright young prospects explodes, and international expansion means that fighters in Germany, the Phillipines, Korea, France, the UK, Australia, and elsewhere will want to get into the big leagues.

I do agree that the formula is somewhat stale, but there's an argument to be made for not making drastic changes. As the article somewhat begrudgingly admits, TUF is still doing great ratings for a show with its longevity and its genre. The formula is one that is proven to work and which I don't see suddenly failing - precisely because it's largely powered by the personalities of those that compete and by the UFC's/Spike's demonstrably solid ability to tell their stories and create an interest in their fate.

If I changed anything at all, I would leave the format almost as it is but have the fights be more Bellator style - either live or next-day on tape delay. This will impart a more "fighting" feel and a less "TV" feel.

Also, you could, as popularity continues to expand, conduct a few different TUF "seasons" in parallel and simultaneously, bringing them all together each week on the live fight night, where each fight on the card would be a showdown from one of the parallel "seasons". Possibly each "season" could then produce its own winner and the TUF Finale would be even bigger than currently, with the different parallel seasons' champs fighting it out for the big prize.

Incidentally this would also be a way for the UFC to give a bit more to the fans while expanding their own fighter base slightly and allowing fighters to remain a bit more active than currently.

Anderson Silva Told Us this was Coming

Numbers — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 16:22:22 -0000

The foremost topic on the minds of most MMA fans this morning is, What is going on with Anderson Silva?

BE member "AlwaysRelaxing" has written what I think is a solid FanPost here, which I think very well captures the curious - and unexpected - situation Dana White finds himself in.

Dana himself apparently feels similarly. He pulled no punches in his candid assessment of his star's performance as cited in a Yahoo! Sports article:

I can honestly tell you that I’ve never put on an event that I was embarrassed to be at until tonight. I want to publicly apologize to all the fans…. I apologize. I personally apologize for what happened tonight. You guys know, this isn’t what the UFC was built on and this isn’t the way the fights usually go. Listen, any night you can have an off-night. When a guy is that talented and can literally end a fight whenever he wants to, wow.

Over at MMAMania they are asking fans to weigh in on whether Silva-Leites surpasses Sylvia-Arlovski III as the worst main event in recent memory. An Anderson Silva fight being compared unfavorably with Tim Sylvia is officially the sign of the apocalypse.

How the heck did we get to this point? What is going on with Anderson Silva?

There's plenty of speculation on all corners of the MMA universe including Bloody Elbow. For my take, I think that this situation Dana is in should not be unexpected - at least in hindsight. Anderson himself foreshadowed this with a single short but telling quote, from a Sherdog interview in October 2008 when he said, "Everything has its time, and I believe my time is already over."

That may have been as close as we'll come - for a while - to knowing what has occurred. Putting all the pieces together, I believe that Silva is simply burned out and is no longer interested in fighting MMA.

Everyone has these ups and downs in their life when they are more or less passionate about things, including their career. Anderson is a human being. He's given us some incredible fights but I think he may have been disarmingly honest with us when he said his time had already passed. We have yet to see more than a shadow of the "old" Silva since that interview.

I hope - as an MMA fan I pray - I'm wrong and that Anderson will again grace us with his inimitable "ballet of violence" - but for now, this is my attempt to fill the yawning void of questions with at least a piece of an answer.