SB Nation User Blog: Nuss

Watched practice yesterday and I can tell you there is no end to the lengths WSU is going to solve...

Nuss — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 01:53:40 -0000

Watched practice yesterday and I can tell you there is no end to the lengths WSU is going to solve its offensive woes. In his three years as a head coach, Tony Bennett has already shown a willingness to adapt to his talent, a trait that should serve the team well the next couple weeks. Don’t expect the Cougars to stand still, not in the way they attack a defense or in the players who come off the bench. This week is a great opportunity for a Mike Harthun or Abe Lodwick or the like to show he can help on the offensive end, because, if guard at all in practice, it will lead to playing time.

Grippi on SportsLink. I'll be talking a little more -- probably tomorrow, because I'm under the weather with the flu and just don't feel like thinking tonight -- about the rotation and possible lineup combinations, but I can't help but wonder one thing.

What took so long? It's not like there wasn't ample evidence after the first four games against "like" competition ...

The incomparable CougCenter Pac-10 conference minipreview

Nuss — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:09:37 -0000

With the conference season tipping off tonight, I figured I'd give you my quick look at where we stand heading into the 18 games that truly will decide each team's postseason fate.

What follows is a short breakdown of each team, ordered in my own little power ranking. (I didn't take into account tonight's games, FYI, since I started working on the post this afternoon.) And don't look now, but the "weak" Pac-10 is now the No. 2 rated conference by Ken Pomeroy.

1. UCLA (10-2)

Pomeroy Ranking: 16

Quick Take: The Bruins are still the class of the Pac-10. They might not be the 1,000-pound gorilla they've been over the past few years and might not be a shoo-in for their fourth consecutive Final Four, but they're still very, very good. The team defense is down just a tick, and J'Mison Morgan hasn't exactly been the replacement for Kevin Love that UCLA fans thought he might be, since he's only averaging 7.2 minutes a game.

But they still generate a ton of turnovers, and Darren Collison is one of the most efficient players in the country (No. 45 in offensive rating and No. 53 in eFG%). The most pleasant suprise for UCLA has been the play of guard Michael Roll. The junior supersub has the No. 2 offensive rating in the country, and is shooting a ridiculous eFG% of 73.4, which would also be No. 2 if he had played enough minutes to qualify.

The Bruins have been destroying some less-than-impressive competition since losing to No. 7 Texas so who knows how much they've improved since that loss, but with an experienced squad and Ben Howland on the sidelines, they're still my odds on favorite to win the conference title.

2. Arizona State (11-1)

Pomeroy Ranking: 9

Quick Take: The Sun Devils are the highest rated Pac-10 team by kenpom.com, but it's tough to know just how good they really are after yet another typically creampuff nonconference schedule. ASU has played just one true road game (for the second consecutive year), and lost its only real test against Baylor.

But the Sun Devils have the No. 1 effective field goal percentage and No. 4 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country thanks in large part to a weapon that no one in the conference can match: James Harden. Want to know just how good Harden has been? Read this piece at Basketball Prospectus. It's a couple of weeks old, but still relevant. The guy is an absolute stud, ranking in the top 100 nationally in percentage of his team's shots taken, offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, free throw rate and assist rate. He's a one-man wrecking crew.

Jeff Pendergraph has also been very good, but the Devils are thin up front. Depth there might be an issue against Pac-10 teams with better big men than the Devils have faced this season.

3. USC (9-3)

Pomeroy Ranking: 41

Quick Take: The offense has been inconsistent, but the defense has been typically sound under Tim Floyd. Only the loss to Seton Hall raises eybrows, as losses to Missouri and Oklahoma -- especially with as close as the latter was -- are nothing to be ashamed of. The offense has been inconsistent at best, but that's to be expected as the Trojans figure out how to replace to production of OJ Mayo and Davon Jefferson.

Dwight Lewis has taken on the bulk of the scoring load, while Taj Gibson has been his usual beastly self inside, posting seven double-doubles already to go along with the No. 17 block percentage in the country. But what truly makes this a team on the come is freshman sensation DeMar DeRozan, who Floyd says is "growing in front of our eyes right now." Also keep an eye on junior Daniel Hackett. He's a player I've been down on in the past, but he's quietly blossoming into one of the top point guards in the Pac-10.

If there's one thing Floyd has proven, it's that he can grow a team over the course of a year so that it's playing its best ball by March. He's well on his way to doing it again.

4. Cal (11-2)

Pomeroy Ranking: 32

Quick Take: And here we have our first big surprise of the season. I said before the year that the Bears could be the surprise team of the conference, and don't look now, but Mike Montgomery has the Bears playing some mighty fine basketball. Their only two losses came to a decent Florida State in Las Vegas and a very good Missouri on the road -- no shame in that.

How have the Bears done it? By turning a mediocre defense in 2007-08 (No. 152 adjusted defensive efficiency) into one of the better ones this year (No. 66) while maintaining the offense, even with the loss of Ryan Anderson to the NBA. I thought Patrick Christopher might be one of the surprise players in the Pac-10 this year, but it's been point guard Jerome Randle who's been the difference maker for Montgomery. His stats are up across the board, as he's averaging 19.5 points and 4.8 assists.

I believe now more than ever that Cal is poised for a WSU-like jump into the top half of the conference.

5. Arizona (9-3)

Pomeroy Ranking: 42

Quick Take: The Wildcats have played far better than anyone had any right to expect in the wake of Lute Olson's retirement just after the start of official practices. Forget about the comically absurd loss to UAB and the close loss to Texas A&M; the Wildcats have impressive wins over Gonzaga and Kansas to hang their hats on come Tournament time.

It doesn't hurt that they've got the most talented trio in the conference with Nic Wise, Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill. The three account for 65 percent of the Wildcats' scoring, 56 percent of their rebounds, 59 percent of their assists. Hill has been especially impressive, leading the team in scoring and averaging a double-double.

Coach Russ Pennell deserves a lot of credit for getting this team to play as well as it has and on track for yet another NCAA Tournament berth. For all the hand-wringing by Olson and the players about the slower pace played under Kevin O'Neill last year, Arizona is playing at an even slower pace this year, although they've played faster recently. Pennell is clearly doing something right.

6. Stanford (10-0)

Pomeroy Ranking: 30

Quick Take: The Cardinal finished the nonconference slate without a loss, and while there isn't really a win over an impressive opponent in the bunch, most of the wins were by double digits, including a 111-66 thrashing of Texas Tech. Stanford's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency are both ranked in the top 40 nationally under first-year coach Johnny Dawkins.

Anthony Goods has really stepped up his production, leading the way with 18.4 points per game, but it's been a balanced attack, as the Cardinal feature four players averaging double figures. Part of that is due to Stanford playing much faster this year than at any point in recent memory, averaging more than 71 possessions, a pace befitting the smallish squad left in the wake of the defections of the Lopez ~~sisters~~ twins and graduation of Taj Finger.

But that small frontcourt might prove to be the Cardinal's undoing. They're already giving up the 40th highest 2-point field goal percentage in the country and blocking only 7.7 percent of their opponents shots (203rd). Contrast that with the sixth-best 2-point field goal percentage and No. 36 block percentage last year, and you wonder how Stanford will hold up against legitimate big men, which most teams in the Pac-10 possess.

7. Washington State (8-4)

Pomeroy Ranking: 40

Quick Take: The Cougs were the picture of consistency in the nonconference schedule, beating the crud out of teams they were supposed to beat, going 1-1 against middle-of-the-road SEC teams, and going 0-3 against ranked teams. If this team has any hope of making the NCAA Tournament for the third year in a row, it's going to have to make some hay in the conference schedule.

The defense has been as good as ever, holding all opponents but Baylor, Gonzaga and LSU to efficiencies under 100. But the offense ... oh, that offense. It's bad. Real bad. And if the Cougs want to get up into the top half of the conference, Tony Bennett's going to have to come up with some answers in a hurry. The defense is good enough to win some games all by itself, but unless the offense gets better, this is shaping up to be a remake of 2005-06.

8. Washington (9-3)

Pomeroy Ranking: 24

Quick Take: The Pomeroy Ranking suggests I ought to have the Huskies higher than this, but let's just say I'm a little bit skeptical considering they lost all three games they played away from Hec Ed, including a season-opening debacle at Portland. But there's no denying UW has been impressive at home, posting a dominant win over Oklahoma State (No. 49 Pomeroy) and a nice win without Jon Brockman over an underrated Portland State team (No. 88 Pomeroy) that would be Gonzaga in Spokane a little over a week later.

Brockman has been his usual dominant self inside, averaging a double-double, and the Huskies have gotten improved play on the perimeter from an unlikely source: Justin Dentmon, who is averaging 12.4 points. Additionally, Isaiah Thomas has shown flashes of being the explosive scorer the Huskies hoped for.

The thing that has Husky fans hoping this year will be different than the past two is that the defense seems to be better -- 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency, fueled largely by a much improved shooting defense (No. 64 in opponents' eFG%, compared to No. 234 and 193 the past two years).

One thing to keep an eye on, though: Washington's defensive efficiency is fairly significantly correlated to opponents' turnover percentage (-.74). Will the defense be as good against Pac-10 teams that figure to take care of the ball better than some of their more overmatched opponents? Kansas and Florida posted the two highest opponents' efficiencies while posting two of the three lowest TO%.

9. Oregon (6-6)

Pomeroy Ranking: 93

Quick Take: Poor Ernie Kent. With his keister firmly on the hot seat, he sure picked a terrible time to play the toughest nonconference schedule of any Pac-10 team -- 38th nationally according to Pomeroy. The Ducks got soundly beat by the good teams on their schedule, but also lost a couple of not-so-good games to Oakland and San Diego.

It's the same old story with the Ducks. They're playing the fastest pace of anyone in the conference (73.7) and chucking up a ton of 3's, which they're still pretty good at making (37.5 percent, 61st nationally). Where the offense is struggling, though, is in getting easy baskets -- the Ducks are an appalling 269th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage after being 14th last year. Much like Washington, the defense is actually quite improved so far thanks to a high number of steals.

Tajuan Porter has proven to be mediocre as a leading man. Don't let the fact that he's leading Oregon in scoring fool you; he's posting just the team's fourth best offensive rating. Freshman Michael Dunigan has been solid, but team's might start employing a hack-a-Shaq strategy on him if he doesn't improve on that 51.1 percent from the line.

10. Oregon State (5-5)

Pomeroy Ranking: 175

Quick Take: Nobody's going to confuse the Beavers with a Pac-10 contender, but nobody's going to confuse them with last year's edition that went 0-18 in the Pac-10, either. This team is improved under new coach Craig Robinson*, especially on the offensive end. Their adjusted offensive efficiency is higher than the Cougs', thanks largely to improved play in the paint -- OSU is 10th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage.

Expect this team to get much better as the season rolls along. Robinson employs a version of the Princeton offense, which players don't exactly pick up overnight. The growth is already palpable; the Beavers soundly beat Howard University at home on Dec. 20, whom they lost to by two in their season opener just a month before. This team that quit on Jay John last year is playing hard for Robinson. It might not translate into five or six wins, but it'll translate into two or three over teams that don't come prepared to battle the Beavers.

* Notice how I wrote Craig Robinson's name without mentioning that he is Barack Obama's brother in law? Oh, wait ... dang! I just did it! Dangit!!!

In search of an effective Taylor Rochestie

Nuss — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 21:31:29 -0000

via cache.daylife.com

Before the season started, I wrote that Taylor Rochestie holds the key to the Cougars’ season more than any other player on this roster. I felt pretty good about the prospect, given that Rochestie’s been as steady as a rock over the past two years. And while some guys shrink in the face of that kind of challenge, if anyone seemed to have the makeup to relish the progression from complimentary player to lead point guard, it was Rochestie.

So far, it looks like we couldn’t have been more wrong.

No player more exemplifies the Cougs’ struggles on offense than Rochestie. Point guards are evaluated not just in terms of their individual contributions, but in terms of the offense’s overall effectiveness. With more than one third of the season already gone – and the entire nonconference schedule now behind us – Rochestie has failed to live up to expectations on both counts. His play has dipped in virtually every measurable way, as he has been unable to cope with the pressure of an elevated role.

This offense is easily the worst of the Tony Bennett era, and it’s not even close. Against "like" competition this year – Mississippi State, Pitt, Baylor, Gonzaga and LSU – the Cougs have posted an average offensive efficiency of just 84.4, with a high of only 90.9 against MSU. For a little bit of perspective, the WSU offense was held under 90.9 just three times in 2006-07 and twice (Gonzaga and North Carolina) last year.

Let that sink in for a second: Something that happened just five times in Tony Bennett's first 69 games has now happened five times in the last 12. If this team is to have any prayer of competing for a spot in the top half of the conference this year, it's got to start being a better offensive team against Pac-10 caliber competition.

Now, there’s clearly less talent on offense this year (or, at least, Pac-10 ready talent) with Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver gone, so certainly not all of this can be laid at Rochestie’s feet. But a good portion of it can.

A point guard’s primary responsibility is to set up his teammates. It’s not just getting the ball to them in the spots from which they can score, but it’s also getting it to them in a manner they can handle. It’s thinking teammates first and yourself second, a role Rochestie embraced over the past two years playing next to Low and Weaver.

Now? It’s Rochestie first and teammates second – with disastrous results. It wouldn’t be as big of a deal if he were scoring with any kind of efficiency (although, I’d argue it would still be a big deal if he was, as we’ll get to in a second). But he’s not. Check out the contrast in his stats against "like" competition from last year to this. (I tried formatting it in a readable way, but I just couldn't get it all to fit and still be readable. Click on each image to see a full-size view.)

So, just to recap: His shot attempts are way up, but his effective field goal percentage is way, way down, leading to his points being down; his assists are down, but his turnovers are way, way, WAY up. (On the bright side, his rebounds are up. Nice!)

You'll note that his 3-point attempts are actually down, meaning that while the missed 3-pointers are a problem, the main issue is coming from missing a lot of 2-point attempts. I think that's revealing, and we'll come back to that in a second.

For most players in a similar situation, you could chalk all of this up to simple selfishness. I’m certain that’s not the case with Rochestie. In fact, I think it’s probably the opposite: He wants so badly for this team to succeed that he’s taking the entire burden of an offense that is struggling on his own shoulders by increasing his shots with each passing game. In a senior year that is probably his final year of organized basketball, it’s admirable … but misguided.

Here’s the gigantic problem with Rochestie taking 12 shots a game: He’s the only guy in this offense with the ability to make plays for his teammates.

While we do miss the scoring punch of Low and Weaver, I’d argue we miss them most in their ability to make plays for other guys. Remember the offense two years ago? Low and Weaver had yet to emerge as consistent scoring threats, yet its effectiveness was only a shade under last year’s offense. And for 30-35 minutes a game last year, the Cougs had three guys on the floor capable of not only scoring off the dribble, but breaking down an opponent and setting up a teammate with a quality pass. Those two guys, along with Rochestie, made that offense – which was one of the best in the nation in terms of efficiency – go.

But this year’s team lacks those playmakers and scorers. While Marcus Capers, Klay Thompson and Mike Harthun might become those kinds of guys eventually, they certainly are not there yet. And in truth, I think Rochestie actually could be a legitimate primary scoring option – seriously, does anyone think he’s really as bad of a shooter as he’s been this year? – if he had a playmaking point guard next to him. (Xavier Thames, why couldn’t you be a year older?) But he doesn’t, and isn’t going to.

So, what can be done? The solution is threefold.

First, Rochestie needs to change his mentality on the floor. The fact that he's attempting so many more 2-point shots this year means that when he's getting into the lane, he's first and foremost trying to score. And while there certainly is nothing wrong with him taking shots if he’s efficient with them, but as we’ve established, it can’t come at the expense of other guys.

There are guys who can go into the lane with the intention of scoring and adjust on the fly, but those are usually guys with the athleticism to cause breakdowns in the defense all by themselves. (Kyle Weaver, anyone?) Rochestie, who’s generously described as "crafty," is not that guy. When he drives into the lane, he needs to do it first with the purpose of getting a teammate a quality shot – as he did the last two years – and take a shot only if it presents itself as a high-percentage option.

Second, Rochestie needs to trust his teammates again. He is playing like that guy at the Rec Center (or P.E.B. back in my day) who passes the ball the first three possessions, watches teammates miss shots, then shoots the ball every time he touches the ball for the rest of the game, thinking he can do it better.

I firmly believe that all those shots Rochestie is chucking up speak volumes about just how much faith he has in his teammates at the moment, and it starts to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. With every shot that Rochestie takes, his teammates stand around more and more, either consciously or subconsciously working just a little less hard for their good shot because the ball probably isn’t coming their way. Nothing breeds confidence in other players like continually feeding them the ball. Rochestie needs to be the guy you love playing pickup ball with.

Lastly, let’s spread the blame a little. Rochestie’s teammates need to start doing some things to make his life just a little bit easier so that he doesn’t continue to feel like he has to do it all alone. About the only two guys that don’t need to change a thing are Aron Baynes and Caleb Forrest, who cannot do any more than they’re already doing.

But it’s completely unacceptable for Daven Harmeling to go an entire game without taking even one shot. I know LSU dedicated a defender to Harmeling, but there’s a mentality a shooter has to have that he’s going to get some shots no matter what, even if that means taking a bad one occasionally. Klay Thompson must be more assertive within the offense and work harder against teams that want to take him away. He needs to look for opportunities to take the ball to the rim. Nikola Koprivica needs to move more without the ball and stop blowing layups. DeAngelo Casto needs to concentrate on catching passes and dunk a ball once in a while.

If this team has any shot to finish in the top half of the Pac-10, its offense must improve. And for that to happen, Rochestie’s got to start being the distributor and facilitator this team desperately needs, and his teammates need to do their part to increase his confidence in them.

Your latest evidence that the people who run the Pac-10 are stupid

Nuss — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 21:03:35 -0000

Fair warning.

The Pac-10 basketball season kicks off today with a quartet of games on a funky Friday/Sunday schedule because of New Year's Day. While I'm working on a mini Pac-10 preview post for tonight, I just had to put this out there:

The people who run the Pac-10 are stupid.

Do you realize that you cannot watch No. 17 Arizona State at undefeated Stanford tonight, no matter what cable package you have? Additionally, most likely the only game you'll be able to catch is UCLA at Oregon State, which is being broadcast nationally by FSN? Boy, that should be a great freaking game.

You actually can watch USC at Oregon right now if you have Comcast Sports Net Northwest, and you can watch Arizona at Cal at 5:30 p.m. on FCS. But that's beside the point: Why does this conference make it so damn tough to watch its games? It's a joke.

The NCAA Tournament should be the farthest thing from this team's mind

Nuss — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 23:08:23 -0000

You know, in a way, our discontentment with this 8-4 nonconference record speaks as loudly as anything about how far this program has come in the last four-plus years. Three years ago, we would have killed for eight wins in the nonconference slate and shrugged our shoulders with four losses against teams -- three of them currently ranked 3, 16 and 19 -- that are a combined 41-5 and rated an average of 24.25 by Ken Pomeroy.

Now? We're wringing our hands over a nonconference loss that might be the difference between making a third consecutive NCAA Tournament or being shipped off to NIT no-man's land.

The trouble with that, though, is that we are now officially way, way ahead of ourselves in terms of thinking about the NCAA Tournament. We probably were all year, but in light of Saturday's loss, it's become really, really clear that the postseason ought to be the farthest thing from all of our minds.

It's not so much that one loss should have changed our opinion so much; it's that the loss looked so strikingly similar to the other three losses, that we can no longer ignore what has become increasingly obvious: This team has some major flaws that don't look like they're getting any better.

In each of the four losses -- save for the game against Pitt, which is increasingly looking like an anomaly -- the blueprint has been the same: Play solid defense and keep the game close by grinding it out with a below-average offense, only to sabotage the whole thing with a stunning stretch of terrible basketball that the below-average offense doesn't have a prayer of overcoming.

It's the complete and total lack of growth in this offense -- and perhaps even regression -- that's got me wondering not whether we can compete for an NCAA Tournament berth, but whether we ought to be worried about a six-win Pac-10 performance.

My heart tells me that's ridiculous, but my head tells me something else entirely. Think the shots are likely to be more open in Pac-10 play than they are now, when playing teams that not only pride themselves on defense, but are familiar with our offense and personnel? It's going to be harder to play well on offense in the coming weeks, not easier.

In an ideal world, you want to have your most basic questions about your team answered as you head into Pac-10 play. In what is perhaps as shocking a development as those second-half meltdowns, Tony Bennett might have more questions now than when the season started.

Let's just hope he didn't use up all that Bennett magic in the last two years, but this team is in severe need of some answers.

Simone reportedly makes a firm commitment to WSU

Nuss — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:26:01 -0000

We're a few days late on this one, but as my mom used to say, better late than never!

Skyline WR Gino Simone, arguably the top recruit in the state, was said to be looking around a bit after verbally committing to the Cougs back in August. But he cemented his intention to come to WSU next year at the end of last week according to CougFan.com. The Cougs also got a commit from Spokane's Travis Long, one of Wulff's coveted targets over this past recruiting year.

According to Scout.com, the Cougs' class is still ranked fifth in the Pac-10, with 12 of the 17 commits rated as three-star recruits or higher. So far, so good in keeping our commits as we head toward LOI day in February.

And if you're curious how the rest of the scholarships might work out -- there are about eight left -- here's Grippi's take:

As for football recruiting, the Cougars probably have less than a handful of scholarships available. They have 17 commits, according to the scouting services, which leaves just eight initials to hand out. Three of them will go to grayshirts, including JC transfer Josh Luapo and two freshmen linemen, Tim Hodgdon and Alex Reitnouer, all of whom will enroll next month (probably along with at least one of the 17 commits, JC tight end Peter Tuitupou).

There should be two or three current players, possibly including linebacker Myron Beck and kicker Nico Grasu, given rides. Any player given a scholarship who hasn’t been on campus for at least two years counts against this year’s initials, with Beck and Grasu fitting in that category. So my guess is there is room for about five or so more players, with the Cougars possibly offering more than that and asking the excess to grayshirt.

OPEN HOOPS GAME THREAD: WSU at LSU

Nuss — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 21:23:27 -0000

11 AM PST -- Pete Maravich Assembly Center

Kenpom.com prediction: Cougs win 52-50 (58 possesions, 64 percent confidence)

PROBABLE STARTERS

	WSU - No. 25 Pomeroy	Vitals		LSU - No. 69 Pomeroy	Vitals
G	Taylor Rochestie (Sr.)	6-1/193	G	Bo Spencer (So.)	6-1/180
G	Klay Thompson (Fr.)	6-6/187	G	Marcus Thornton (Sr.)	6-4/198
F	Daven Harmeling (Sr.)	6-7/227	G	Garrett Temple (Sr.)	6-6/195
F	Caleb Forrest (Sr.)	6-8/223	F	Tasmin Mitchell (Jr.)	6-7/230
C	Aron Baynes (Sr.)	6-10/250	C	Chris Johnson (Sr.)	6-11/205

This is a big game for a number of reasons for both teams. The Cougs badly need a solid nonconference win after missing chances against Pitt, Baylor and Gonzaga, while LSU simply needs some kind of win over someone of any strength whatsoever. Additionally, because the game is on national television on the four-letter network -- a Pac-10 team on ESPN? Who knew it was possible? -- both teams will be looking to show that they're for real. Intensity should be high.

Both teams took some time off for the holidays, so rust might play a factor here. That would seem to benefit LSU if the Cougs can't quickly find the range, since WSU's offensive efficiency (+.91) and LSU's defensive efficiency (+.94) are about as highly correlated to effective field goal percentage as they can get. (What the heck are those stats?)

All the more reason for the Cougs to pound the ball inside, I say.

How this game develops is anyone's guess. As we explored yesterday, we just don't know how good LSU is. I figure this is going to be a downright ugly game. LSU's length on the perimeter is going to disturb our guards, while the Tigers are going to settle for shooting a lot of contested jumpers against WSU's pack defense. Expect shooting percentages to be low, and the game to be in the 50s.

And expect the Cougs to win on the back of Aron Baynes.

JOIN THE GAME THREAD NOW!

An interesting and extremely early look at the 2009 football roster

Nuss — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 21:44:35 -0000

I posted this in the FanShots on Christmas Eve, but I don't know how many of you saw it. Vince Grippi took an early look at the 2009 football roster and came up with his 22 starters in this SportsLink blog post.

Most interesting to me, besides his prediction that Marshall Loebestaal is the starter at QB? That he thinks Andy Mattingly might be Greg Trent's successor at middle linebacker:

This is just a hunch. Mattingly has always played on the outside, but there really isn’t an obvious choice to replace Greg Trent. Mattingly is a straight ahead guy who just might blossom here, though there is some question whether he can cover sideline-to-sideline. The coaches also like Mike Ledgerwood, so he may start here and Mattingly may stay outside.

I've always thought this actually made a lot of sense. I just don't see him as the type of quick on the outside backer Wulff's staff seems to prefer, and he really was just too small to play defensive end full time. Although he's probably going to have to drop a little weight to stick at MLB, he's a downhill runner who likes to hit. I'd love to see him meet up with a running back at the line of scrimmage, wouldn't you?

How good is LSU? Who knows?

Nuss — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 20:15:55 -0000

Normally, I'd write this sort of a preview for the game thread, but given the complete and utter lack of other things to talk about -- and the important nature of tomorrow's game -- I thought I'd throw you all a bone and give us something to talk about so that CougarsRock can quit going through withdrawals.

We all believe this to be a big game for the Cougs for some obvious reasons, chief among them that it represents our final chance to get a nice win to bolster our potential Tournament resume before the conference schedule starts. But how nice of a win it actually would be is highly debatable at the moment.

Of course, a win on the road against a power-conference opponent is always worth some NCAA Tournament committee brownie points, but the truth is that we really have no idea how good LSU really is. The Tigers haven't just played a soft nonconference schedule to build their 9-1 record; they've played the weakest nonconference schedule in the country -- No. 344 out of 344 Division I basketball teams, according to Ken Pomeroy, as the Tigers have played just two teams rated above 220 by Pomeroy (No. 133 Cal-State Fullerton and No. 83 Texas A&M).

Seriously, even Jim Boeheim shakes his head at how bad the Tigers' first 10 opponents have been.

Because the opposition has been so weak, it's tough to get much of a statistical read on LSU. However, the Tigers are ranked No. 69 by Pomeroy despite their record, and their adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are not nearly as good as their raw numbers, indicating that LSU probably isn't as strong as the record might suggest.

So what, if anything, can we learn from the Tigers' early results? Well, much like the Cougars, its pretty obvious that they've just physically overwhelmed their opponents. Teams have been unable to get into the lane against the Tigers, thanks in large part to 6-foot-11 shot blocker extraordinaire Chris Johnson, who is 18th nationally in block percentage. In fact, LSU is fifth nationally as a team in both block percentage and 2-point field goal percentage allowed. They've done a good job beating who they should beat.

Our two best shots to try and evaluate the Tigers come from their two most quality opponents. But we won't learn much from the Fullerton matchup because the Tigers like to run and the Titans really, really like to run, resulting in a 75-possession game that was absolutely nothing like what we'll see tomorrow. So let's focus in on Texas A&M.

First of all, the Aggies slowed the game down -- not necessarily to the degree the Cougs will, but slower than what LSU would prefer. They also destroyed the Tigers inside, getting Johnson and versatile forward Tasmin Mitchell into foul trouble. Because the Tigers are not at all a deep team, any kind of foul trouble really starts to spell doom for them. Additionally, it makes a lot of sense to attack LSU this way if you can, because the Tigers' three guards, who see the bulk of the minutes on the floor, are long and rangy on the perimeter.

In fact, this makes me start to wonder if starting Caleb Forrest against Idaho wasn't meant to prepare for this game. There could be some real weakensses in LSU's interior for WSU's big men to exploit, in particular Aron Baynes. Yes, Johnson is a good shot blocker, but he's only 205 pounds. And the last time Baynes played a talented shot blocker who couldn't matchup with his girth, he threw Jarvis Varnado on the barbie and ate him to the tune of 17 points on 8-of-10 shooting.

The Texas A&M game is also the closest the Tigers have come to facing a team with even remotely the defensive prowess of WSU, but that's not saying much -- the Aggies' adjusted defesive efficiency ranks No. 127, while the Cougs' ranks No. 2. So while we should be a little bit concerned about the ability of guards Marcus Thornton (17.3 ppg) and Bo Spencer (11.2 ppg) to go crazy from the outside -- the Tigers shoot 39.2 percent from 3-point range, 33rd nationally -- it's safe to say that the Tigers simply won't get the open looks on the perimeter they've become accustomed to. Mitchell, a talented frontcourt player coming off a major knee injury last year, also won't have the physical advantage around the basket he's enjoyed in the first 10 games.

Of course, Trent Johnson knows all of this about the WSU defense, having coached against Bennett teams for the past four years at Stanford. But how many times have we seen a team think they know what they're in for against the Cougs, only to say after the game that while they knew the defense was good, they didn't know it was that good? It's one thing for Johnson to know it; it's something else for him to get his team to believe it. Here's to betting his team won't truly believe it until Johnson asks them, "Now do you believe me?" at halftime.

The bottom line is that we just don't know what we're getting ourselves into tomorrow, and likely won't know just what a win -- or a loss -- means until later in the year.

On the starters and the rotation

Nuss — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 20:12:29 -0000

And ... we're back! Hope you all had an awesome Christmas (or any other holiday celebration of your choosing). Just a couple of notes from Vince Grippi's advance for tomorrow's game I thought I'd pass along for your consideration.

First, it sounds to me like Caleb Forrest starting and Nik Koprivica coming off the bench will not be a one-time occurrence:

The Cougars changed their starting lineup against Idaho, bringing Nik Koprivica off the bench and starting 6-foot-8 Caleb Forrest at the power forward position. “I just felt (Caleb’s) play as of late and his senior experience, his leadership, his heart on the floor, I want him out there,” Bennett said. Forrest has told Bennett he would rather come off the bench, but the coach feels it’s a good way to get him more minutes.

And, it looks like Tony Bennett's pretty well got his rotation set heading into Pac-10 play:

The Cougars top eight are pretty set, with freshmen Marcus Capers and DeAngelo Casto joining the five starters and Koprivica. The ninth spot, if Bennett decides to go that deep, is a battle between guard Mike Harthun, wing Abe Lodwick and post Charlie Enquist. All are freshmen. The decision, Bennett said, is usually based on the matchup needed for that game.