And Brady too.  A provocative title, I know, and a little misleading.  This article is about giving you a visual look at the Patriots play calling during games. Although I like to write whimsical pieces for The Phinsider, at heart I’m a stat guy. In my spare time I like to crunch numbers and analyze data.

One of the stats I have heard mentioned a few times is that the teams keep track, during the game, of exactly how many runs and how many passes have been called at that point. That way they can balance their mix of plays for themselves and hopefully anticipate their opponents.

I’ve wondered if you pick a team and plotted in a graph the runs vs passes that were called during each game, would you be able to see any tendencies in the play calling that occurred over time? The tendencies could be broad or maybe you could find some small patterns  in the situational stats.

So this is what I did for the Patriots for the 2009 season. You can view the results here  [the file is 1.8 Meg].  For the run/pass totals, I started each game at zero and added 1 for a pass and -1 for a run. So if the game started with 7 passes and 3 runs the run/pass total for the 10th play would 4 [7 + -3]. I plotted this against the point differential – the number of points the Patriots were ahead or behind.  I also included the down, yards to go, and whether they were in the red zone or inside the 2 minute warnings, just for kicks.

As you look at the graphs, the results are not surprising:  The Patriots like to throw.  When you have Tom Brady for a QB with Welker and Moss for receivers, you can throw a lot.  I know that depending on what Brady sees in the defense he may change the play from the one called in the huddle. And I know that the Patriots game plan well according to their opponents strengths and weaknesses. But I hoped to see some patterns anyway from the plays actually called.

3 hours until game time, here is what I saw with a quick look:

• Brady likes to throw a lot, duh. If your defense/secondary is suspect, he’ll throw a lot.
• The Patriots like to throw in the second half. Maybe the idea is to wear out the secondary in the first half and take advantage of them in the second half?
• Belichick hates Tennessee.
• The Pats will start throwing the ball consistently whenever they are behind and up to about when they are 10 points ahead. Unless you’re Tennessee.
• The Patriots really missed Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris, both of whom were out for the middle of the season - 10 games for Taylor and 5 for Morris.  
• The Dolphins win in week 13 was the first game of the year where the Pats showed a balanced run/pass game the entire game.

If you would like to see more of these for the Dolphins opponents, let me know. I’ll try to get them ready a day or so before game time.  I know I need to examine the situational stats more: down, field position, etc. , and also provide some summary tables.  I also would like to see how other teams play the Dolphins upcoming opponents defenses.  Could be interesting.  And I’ll  try to get some 2010 data too.

Steelers Football. Played as our fore-fathers played it, played as football was meant to be played.  Tough, hard hitting, smash-mouth football. I just love it. As a Pittsburgher-in-exile I agree with my friend Slats: "Turn up the volume and get the crash cart ready."

The Ravens have a similar philosophy too, although not as well executed as my Steelers, which is why I love this match-up and this old but entertaining commercial: 

Same look, same reason for it, different jersey.

Porch time with Slats Thompson.*

OPhinions: "Hey Slats, haven't seen you around in a while."

Slats: "Well you're seeing me now. Grab a beer and and plop your bony ass down in the chair here."

OPhinions:  "How's it hanging, Slats?"

Slats:  "Lower and slower, young man.

"You know, one of the the problems with getting older is that your body doesn't always listen to what the mind is telling it to do. Say you're walking down the street, about to step off of the curb and cross the street when you see a bus speeding towards you out of the corner of your eye. So you stop suddenly.

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The long cold dark days of summer are upon us. Nowadays, when I wake up in the morning the walls seem closer, the air desert dry. Outside, no birds are singing. Only a growing silence awaits the coming day. Even the happy sounds of the 6:00 AM school bus are gone. Happy to me that is, because I am just getting up. Not happy for the students who were out there well before sunrise. Instead of the bus I'm awakened by the clanks and beeps of garbage trucks.

As I venture forth into the dreary dawn [yeah sure, like it's really dawn when I finally drag my butt off to work], colors are flat, sounds muffled. Everything is just a little skewed, a little unsettled. I shiver in the weakening wind and slip into the car.

Turning on the radio for the morning commute, I find the sports guy has the nerve to be on vacation. In his place some perky guy who's normally only on weekends is trying to get me interested in the NBA draft. OK. That will happen right after I check the curling scores. It's the same with the newspaper columnists, putting out interviews disguised as news, stories they completed a couple weeks before.

The horror, the horror of it all. Where, I cry, where is the year-round coverage I was promised? It is now a 12 month nonstop happening I was told, not just an autumn event as in the days of yore.

I have been lied to. They have broken the faith with me, and I am angered. I am furious. The next guy on the road that cuts me off.... Nah, I can't even work up the energy to be annoyed. I'm too depressed.

My constant companion, my friend, where are you? Where did you go? Haven't I been a good friend? Nay, an excellent friend? Haven't I given you enough attention, enough of my hard earned money? Was it something I said, something I did? Tell me, please, how to make it right.

And yet, you have left me, forsaken me. Alone. I am struggling to cope, suffering from the withdrawal of your comforting presence. But even though you have abandoned me, I eagerly await your return. An alarm is already scheduled in my organizer. July 30th is already circled on my calendar.

Till then, dearest NFL. In the meantime I will just have to deal with the long cold dark days of summer.

I can get behind the post-season overtime rule changes. I would even support moving the kickoff five yards closer in addition to the changes adopted in February. After all, the playoffs are win or go home.

But the regular season is another animal entirely. A coach in a tie game in the 4th quarter can justify a conservative approach at the end. Just run out the clock and take his chances in overtime. After all, even if it doesn't work out today, there's always next week. And that is the problem I have with the current regular season overtime rules - I think they are too fair and help promote a "win in OT if needed" mentality.

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If Slats Thompson wasn't a fictitious character, I think Zach Thomas would be one of his favorite players.*

"I want to finish my career here," Thomas said. "It's awesome down here. I love it. I don't even want to think about going another place."

From Some say Zach Thomas' 11th season in Miami could be his last - December 16, 2006

Zach did leave, involuntarily, but he came home Thursday and was retired a Dolphin. This week's column is a collection of items written about or said by Zach Thomas over the years.

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Having Brandon Marshall on the team should open up opportunities for our other receivers. They will be more open and have higher yards/catch this season. A couple of weeks ago Dave.Phuller posted an excellent article Feed the Beast: Brandon Marshall's Impact on the Miami Offense where he projected Marshall's effect on the Dolphins. Some of the points he made included:

• Ronnie and Ricky will run up the middle early and often,
• Shotgun and lone-setback formations will be more prevalent than in the previous year,
• Three-receiver sets and single tight end sets will be far more prevalent this year, and
• The Dolphins have one of the strongest third/fourth-down receiving tandem in the league.
  

So it got me to thinking who is going to get fewer passes this year, if any?

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Dolphins and NFL thoughts, pass blocking tangibles, and Stats with Slats Thompson*.

A little more statistics oriented this week, but first some comments.

A few years ago when talking Dolphins' running backs it used to be a discussion of "Ronnie vs Ricky." Now the discussion is "Ronnie and Ricky."  Guess we're making progress.

Brian Cushing denied taking steroids after receiving a 4 game suspension for failing an NFL drug test. Reportedly, Cushing tested positive for hCG, a fertility drug that is banned by the NFL. After a re-vote, Brian Cushing gets to keep his AP Defensive Rookie of the Year award. One fictitious voter who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was embarrassed didn't say:

"We could've just removed Cushing from the ballot for the re-vote, but then what do we write about afterwards, who won? This way we all get to jump up on our soapboxes and rant, no matter what our position was or how the new vote turned out. And if we AP writers can't spew fake outrage now and again, we would have to contrive some outrage. Now that ain't right. Don't get me wrong, we do it all the time, but it still ain't right."

On an unrelated note, Cushing is expecting triplets this off-season.

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Dolphins thoughts, run blocking tangibles, and Porch Time with Slats Thompson*.

From The Herald, and others: "I would tell you that between Karlos (Dansby), Edds and Koa, our length is tremendous right now. These players are long players when you look at these players. (Chris) McCoy is a long guy. Edds in space plays long."

No mention of Crowder. In fact, no mention of him at all lately. I think the FO has written him off and already has his next year replacement on the team. Hope this inspires him to have a great season this year but he’s probably just playing for his next team from now on.

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via jonesview.files.wordpress.com

What I want from my football team:

I want my team to take a long term approach to the game.

I want my team to draft and bring in players that will make my team a winning team, year after year.

I want my team to have high quality coaching staffs and personnel departments, with low turnover at the top.

I want my team to put a group of guys on the field that I feel can win any game, no matter whom they are playing.

I want my team to accomplish all of the following specific goals within any 10 year time period.

I want my team to have:
  at most 2 losing seasons
  at least 6 playoff appearances
  at least 3 or 4 division titles
  at least 1 or 2 conference titles appearances
  at least 1 or 2 Super Bowl appearances
  at least 1 Super Bowl win

Not all teams can achieve those goals. I don’t care.

But that is what I want from my team.

Dolphins thoughts from Slats Thompson*:

When a new male lion takes over a pride the first thing it does it kill and eat all the cubs. This brings the lioness' into heat and soon all the cubs are his kids and his kids only. Sound like any front offices you know?

Read in a scouting report on A.J. Edds how he really seems to like beating on tight ends. I think I like that in a football player. A lot.

Safety Chris Clemons was a rookie last year. He only played 89 snaps and was thrown at 7 times with 4 receptions for a total of 80 yards, one of which was a 54 yard reception. His total YAC was only 10 yards.  Let's give him a chance this year before we throw him under the bus.

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I woke up Sunday morning a little confused. That's normal for me and I'm used to it. Still, I slivered my eyes open and looked around. Slats of light and dark from outside painted the room.  The room looked like the same place I crashed in the previous night. That's not always the case if I've been celebrating. Have I been celebrating? No, but I’ve been doing something.  Not sure what it was but not celebrating. Anyway, I was in the same room where I crashed.  That's not much but it was something to grasp onto in my half-awake state.

Still, something was off and I coldn't figure it out. What was it?  Well, the room smelled like dog farts but that is normal. Those little dogs, they can sure put out in their sleep. In fact, my eyes are watering. But not from the dog farts.  OK, yes it is from the dog farts.  But there was also something else...

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In October of last year, Jason Taylor said of Cameron Wake: "I've been around a long time and he does things that amaze me. It's those young, fresh legs, good cartilage in his knees. Joey and I will always joke watching tape, see Cameron dip underneath somebody, kind of get pushed around, he'll spin around and pop off the ground. We always look at each other and say, `That's those good knees, the good cartilage.' He does things that Joey and I can't do right now. I think we have a few things that he can't do, either." Jason Taylor, in his own words, seems to be explaining why Joey is not here now and why he, JT, probably won't be here after the draft.  

Jason is still a good player, a leader, and if he signs with the stinkin' Jets I wish him, personally, all the best. But I'm guessing the reason the Dolphins' management doesn't want to talk to him right now, either privately or through the press, is because they don't want to lie to him. I hope the silence is really because they respect JT enough that they don't want to tell him he's wanted when they are ready to draft a couple of DE-OLB types with fresh legs, good knees and good cartilage. Also, they can't tell him they're planning on drafting his replacements because of the 'cone of silence' erected around the trifecta regarding the draft.  Therefore, mum's the word regarding JT.

then we can beat almost anybody, right?

It pains me greatly to say this but the Jets are a very good team. Not Elite but Very Good.  But at the bottom of "Very Good."  Despite their record, the Dolphins are a solid Very Good.

Four games does not a season make but the Dolphins are off the charts in offensive rushing yards/game and almost off the charts in defensive rushing yards/game. And 3rd down %s.  Don't believe me? Check out the stats from last year and compare them to this years stats. The Dolphins "Relative Performance Indicators" are great for rushing. Their combined Off and Def rushing stats are all you could ask for.  Not to mention time of possession. And those are the stats that matter most.

I'm working on a 5 year analysis of the RPIs but the results are similar.  Over a 16 game season the stats will come down but they are still Elite in rushing any way you look at it.  Why? The O-Line is the best reason I can think of.  They are opening enough holes for the run to be successful.  Defense?  Ask the 3 part of the 3-4 [plus the backups] .

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I realize this question was sort of covered in this post but what if Tyler Thigpen ran 1/2 of the Wildcat plays on Monday? He ran for 386 yards last year - a 6.2 average - and he is a passing threat which Ronnie Brown and Pat White are not.  Thigpen passed for 2,600 yds in 11 starts - 14 games.  Not great but not bad for a statistically poor team.

Last year Ryan showed the league how to defend the Wildcat. Wouldn't it be a good time to unveil a new wrinkle in the Wildcat AND stick it to the Jets?

The question is: Should the Dolphins use Thigpen in the Wildcat for 3-5 plays on Monday?

It is another hot steamy day in the Metropolis.  The denizens of our fair city who dare walk outside scurry from shadow to shadow, be it provided by palm tree or foyer, seeking relief from the heat and humidity. Those fortunate enough to be next to the ocean stay close to the cool relief provided by the water.

Normally from the balcony on Collins Avenue I see couples, tourists, and families stroll along the sidewalk.  Not today. Only mad dogs and Jets fans are out in the midday sun.

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Brian Urlacher is out for the season after getting surgery for a separated writst. Geez, what a wimp. All he needs is one of those plexiglass casts so he can keep playing.  Those casts are even hard enough to be used as a weapon. Come on Urlacher, get back in there and play. You're a linebacker, not a receiver! You don't need your wrists. Football players today go on injured reserve at the slightest hangnail.

Back in my day football players played no matter what the injury. And they were glad to do it.  I remember one game waaaaay back when....

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There has been a rumbling off in the distance for quite some time. I remember the last great storm back in February and it was drenching, draining, satisfying. Since then the rumble has grown louder at times only to fade away and tease us with storms to come. In April the thunder came close then receded. In June it came closer still only to disappear completely during July.

August, it returned blowing back strong with the worst/best of it almost here, instead remaining just out of reach. Sure we got wet and the winds blew but the center of the storm was a flickering glow on the horizon. It was nice but didn't seem quite real. And then it backed off once more but remained nearby, regrouping, gathering itself together to send its fury unhindered.

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"Go long and play tall" might be the game plan for Miami Dolphins receiver Brian Hartline in this Sunday's season opener against the Atlanta Falcons. "Go long" because as a rookie receiver he has just started to learn the nuances of his position and keeping his route running fairly simple – just go long - is probably a good idea. "Play tall" because at 6'2", he has a decided height advantage over Atlanta's secondary, all but one of which are under 6'0".

Now, being under 6'0" is not a problem for cornerbacks and safeties. After all, the Dolphins' best cornerback, Will Allen, is 5'10" and Nate Jones is 5'11". But the Falcons secondary also has another issue, they are inexperienced. In an effort to get younger and faster, the Falcons got rid of five members of their secondary during the offseason and drafted seven for the defense. The included a safety, William Moore, in the second round, and a cornerback in both the third (Christopher Owens) and fifth (William Middleton) rounds. The other three cornerbacks on the team at the time - Grimes, Harris and Houston - have 2, 3 and 3 years respectively under their belts.

The remaking of the Falcons secondary this summer has not yet paid off. It has struggled in the preseason giving up 991 yards, 4th highest in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks did well against the Falcons. In the first preseason game, Detroit starting quarterback Daunte Culpepper had a QB rating of 95.1. In the second against the Rams, Kyle Boller, who had not taken a regular season snap since 2007, had a mediocre rating of 72.7. But in the third game with San Diego, Phillip Rivers and Billy Volek had impressive QB ratings of 131.1 and 150.9.

Even during the final preseason game against the Ravens, third string and former Dolphin QB John Beck started the game with an 8 minute 91-yard drive against 10 of the 11 Atlanta starters that led to a touchdown. For the game his rating was a respectable 108. Even though that was preseason and everybody's numbers are exaggerated, the Falcons' defense led the NFL with a league-high 99.6 QB rating. And leading in that stat is definitely not a good thing.

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