My Lineup for the Cardinals: Game One, 2011 NLDS

Assumptions:

1.       Furcal is cleared to play, and must leadoff come hell or high water.

2.       Holliday is on the roster, but is hurt and limited to pinch-hit the first game.

3.       Halladay (no relation) is starting for the Phillies.

4.       The Cardinals carry no more than twelve pitchers (I hear La Russa will carry eleven).

All statistics from Yahoo! Sports. All errors are mine. I live in Portland, Oregon, and see few Cardinal games, so my analysis is lacking experience. For instance, I don't know the Cardinals' defensive abilities (or liabilities) as well as most here. Consider the following a semi-statistcal analysis only.

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I am struck during this series between Portland and Dallas by the numerous similarities, position by position, from top to bottom, between the two teams. I can't be the only one who's noticed while watching the two aging, yet still crucial, point guards, the veteran athletic forwards, the seven-foot don't-call-them-center forwards serving as centers of the offense. But I have yet to see (not that I've been looking) these teams compared side-by-side, one-by-one (here is Dave's matchup preview). So here's my attempt, in one draft because I will otherwise be late for work, at impressing in your mind, gentle reader, the bizarre alignment of the stars which is NBA Playoff basketball.

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See comments at the bottom for updated movement around the NBA.

From what I remember, the deadline to pick up free agents qualified to be on a playoff roster has ended.  That is to say, anyone we pick up now will be a temp for the regular season only. So if we make the playoffs we will be able to suit, AT MOST, twelve (semi-)healthy bodies:

PG Andre Miller
PG Patty Mills
GF Brandon Roy (GIMP)
G Rudy Fernandez
GF Wesley Matthews
F Nicolas Batum 
F Gerald Wallace
FC LaMarcus Aldridge
FC Marcus Camby (GIMP)
C Jarron Collins
PG Armon Johnson
F Luke Babbitt

PLEASE note in the comments below if my memory is at fault. Otherwise, this thread has probably served its purpose.

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Well, well, well, well, well, well, well WELL look at all these long, mournful faces!  Where's the funeral?  I haven't seen a sorrier lot since I dropped 35 in Oklahoma last year.

So.  Looks like we have something of an emergency now.  A couple of quote unquote franchise players not looking so well.  And those poor, young men and their health issues.  BRoy's face goes green every time he sees a flight of stairs.  I mean, the thought of dragging either one of those legs up, let alone two, all the while trying to ignore the click-click, click-click of the knees.  And speaking of knees, how about that Greg Oden?  God bless him and his work ethic, rehabing like the good soldier in front of the cameras and playing the piano on ESPN!  Could that boy party.  The room just lights up when G. O. flashes that millionaire smile!

Ah ha ha ha ha.  Too soon?  Maybe I should get to the point.  Hm.  Since this alleged quote unquote blog is so numbers-happy, since to many those tall athletic-looking sorts running up and down the court aren't actually people, but sabremetrics, let me throw some numbers back at you.

63.  Not a high number to start out with, but you've seen the commercials.  I got that heart thing licked.

76.  Now there's a nice, high number.  You all don't mind missing six games out of a year, do you?   Not bad, not bad at all.

81.  Very nice.  Almost 82.  Getting near A. C. Green territory.

78.  Not looking very injury-prone in this corner, are we?

And, finally, 12 out of 12 for 2010.  A great number since it's for me, number 12.  100% attendance when you need me most.

That's right--me, baby.  L.A., the man so tall they named a big city after me.  Your one and best hope out of the quote endquote alleged Big Three era.

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I believe I'm going to either miss summer league and/or the Blazers during summer league.  Are there any summer league veterans who are going to be there with suggestions on what to see, basketball-related or otherwise?  Maybe I can catch a practice toward the end.

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I believe I understand how witnesses to Kevin Pritchard’s path to being fired have different accounts on the events and understanding about what caused such events.  It would be as absurd to believe that any two people saw and interpreted things exactly the same as to assert they saw with the same set of eyes or breathed with the same set of lungs.  This is what I mean when I write that I get people have multiple viewpoints.
                Nevertheless, only one set of events did happen and no matter how many people interpret, spin or evade the facts, the outcome is abundantly clear:  Kevin Pritchard is being tortured by excruciating and public means.  His only consolation is the same as any prisoner on the rack before being executed.  Soon it will all be over.          

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On June 6, 2010 you wrote a little essay in which you lampooned the corporate culture of the Portland Trailblazers as a "circus."  In an apparent attempt at humor, you posted a picture of a beleaguered, much unfairly harassed man with an unfortunate caption:

With the 22nd pick in the 2010 NBA Draft the Portland Trail Blazers select Mervyn Schekelbottom of DeVry. Later suckas!!!

As the head coach of DeVry's not-inconsequential basketball program and representing many from DeVry's board of directors and alumni program, I feel you owe a public apology to our much-admired point guard.  Mervyn may not seem to highfalutin folks such as yourself as anything special.  But I wouldn't trade him for all the Kresko Mundelheims in the world.  You can count on that.

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Following the 80-74 win in Charlotte the Trailblazers now have four of their fifteen players injured for a significant number of games, including two key rotation players.  Reports (here and here) disagree as to the length of injuries, but it seems certain that Nicolas Batum will be out until mid-February and Travis Outlaw has the same injury which knocked Martell Webster out all of last season.  Furthermore, most of our players, though young, have a history of injury concerns.  The purpose of this post is to ponder how serious of a position the Blazers are ten games into the season and what back-up plan, if any, the organization needs.

The Situation

First of all, the Blazers are 7-3, leading their division and owning the longest current winning streak.  So they got that going for them.

Portland's two injured rotation forwards, Batum and Outlaw, combine for about forty minutes a game, and contribute significantly when healthy.  Two injured rookies, Jeff Pendergraph and Patty Mills, fill out the roster and are coming off of surgeries; they are significant here mostly in the roster spots they take, as whatever virtues they bring to the court are entirely unknown.  A quick glance through NBA.com's injury report indicates maybe 6-12 teams with significant injury concerns, either in terms of many players dinged up, a couple key players out some length of time, or a key contributor out.

Many active players on our roster, though perhaps healthy, have a history of concerns.  Steve Blake and Webster are coming off of surgeries.  Rudy Fernandez played serious basketball this summer and had preseason back spasms and fatigue.  Knock on wood for Greg Oden.  Joel Przybilla had never played 82 games until last season.  Jerryd Bayless just rolled his ankle in a freak accident.  And let's not forget Brandon Roy had knee surgery not 18 months ago, missed 25 games his rookie season and also has not played in 80 regular season games.

A question I have at this point is:  is this par for the course for an NBA team?  Being a Blazers fan, knowing every injury and its estimated length when it happens, I'm pretty sure I suffer from some myopia and am in danger of overestimating the impact a few missing players have compared with teams like the Warriors and Celtics.  But at the very least I think it's valid to start wondering.  First, the Blazers have had to play rotation players during blowouts--Andre Miller, Rudy Fernandez, Joel Przybilla and (now) Juwan Howard, further risking injury.  And it's easy to wonder if these injuries just ten games into the season increase the chance of more significant injuries as key players are forced to play more minutes with more fatigue.  Finally, even if our players stay nominally healthy, how much will added playing time affect them during key games in April?

Questions and Possible Solutions

Concerns such as these highlight how important staying healthy is to a successful season.  Despite some setbacks and missed games last year, Portland stayed relatively healthy and surged to finish with 54 wins.  Perhaps the sanest approach is to accept the team that started the season, injuries or no, since trying to add and subtract players on the fly is a dicey proposition at best.  The latter approach has many complications, including:

1.  What players are available?  The only free agents I know of are those who could not make a roster; two of the players we tried out for roster spot #15, Collins and Udoka, are playing for Phoenix and Sacremento, respectively.  A trade is definitely possible--to many a long-overdue move.  But the Blazers have looked fervently into trades for several months now and could find nothing to their liking.  The only upside to a trade now as opposed to a few months ago is that our cap holds for our Euros are off.  Of course, we could bring in one of them over--Kopenen, Clavier, Freeland--but since none of them have played in the NBA that sounds no more likely than signing someone from the Developmental League.

2.  What players would we give up?  Dante Cunningham, Pendergraph and Mills have non-guaranteed contracts, and can be released without much immediate harm.  Do we want to give up on their potential?  The latter two are injured, and are therefore unable to help our short-term problem, but cutting injured players to the unemployment line may hurt how future draftees and free agents view us.  As to players we might give up in a trade, presumably if we need more healthy players, we would want to include either Batum or Outlaw.  But what provisions, if any, rule against trading injured players (it didn't seem to matter with RLEC)?  Finally, our ideal trade has always been giving up a greater number of players; such a move would not help our current situation.

3.  What are the long-term implications?  A danger with making a move like this is to fix a minor, short-term problem in a way that causes larger, long-term problems.  Thankfully, GM Kevin Pritchard seems to have the opposite temperament, but we are vulnerable for many weeks if any more injuries occur--and every game counts.

Analysis

I'm assuming the Trailblazer's front office has contingency plans for significant injuries, including a list of players available who've tried out during the draft, summer league and training camp.  If not, now is certainly the time to look into who might be available and at what price.  Perhaps ideas for trades at the deadline might have more significance now and an eye toward a move earlier than anticipated may be taken more seriously.

More important, however, is that prior to this the problem was perceived as the opposite:  How are the Blazers going to find time for so much talent?  Here is where we cash in on our depth and where players get the playing time they thought they deserved in the first place.  Can they perform given the opportunity?  If not, will the front office sign some players as insurance--or motivation?

I don't think now is the time to panic or make any major moves, but I do think the signing of Mills now instead of Udoka is much more significant now than whatever it was at the time.  We are now in the position for several weeks where another injury or two, even for a couple of games, leaves Nate with no margin of error.  The time may come soon where we only dress nine or ten guys, due entirely to Paul Allen's infatuation with a late second-rounder.

One final thought:  I believe Coach McMillan's lineup change, moving Roy to the 3 and starting Miller, was a temporary measure aimed at jump-starting the team and exploiting matchups in the backcourt of his next few opponents.  I'm betting he anticipated Webster return to start against Atlanta.  What will he do now?  If he stays the course, Steve Blake (5-24 in his last 3 games) will have to guard Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams or Josh Smith (all of which sound disastrous) and Brandon Roy may struggle against a bigger defender.  If he starts Webster, will Cunningham play his first significant minutes?

The Trailblazers certainly are living in interesting times.  Here's to hoping they can win during them.

A Ticker article on Yahoo Sports indicates Greg Oden has a chipped patella in his left knee.  He had an MRI and is back in Indiana as previously planned.

If I remember correctly, he had microfracture surgery last year on his other knee.

Anyone have any thoughts?  On a macroscopic level, I think a lot of the early NBA buzz has died down because of these injuries and his inconsistent (though sometimes spectacular) play.  On the microscopic level (for us Portland folks), I think Greg's injury doesn't look serious, although it might have a temporary effect on the next few games and, perhaps, with some trades in the works.