SB Nation User Blog: Old Twins Cap

Something Awkward This Way Comes

Old Twins Cap — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:55:10 -0000

How many times have you given up on the Twins this year?

For me, it started with dropping 2 of 3 to Baltimore at home, followed by that lost weekend in Chicago where it was like every pitcher had their pants pulled down and force-marched from the mound as Chicagoans roared in delight.

That was early June. Luckily I was busy that weekend and wasn't fully devestated.

But, then they go to Boston and New York and cough up leads and swing with open palms like they are in a bitch-slap competition and have stars in their eyes. And, I will never forget Everett's bad throw in the 8th in Kansas City, leading to a loss when they could have had first place.

And, there were the Seattle series. Both of them late on the Coast. I clicked the radio off a couple times, put the wine back in its bottle and swore them off for the rest of the year.

There were the Gomez misplays on Vlad's drives in Anaheim, the Nathan blown saves on that same big trip, Punto's fumbles at short. And, of course, the Pridie thing last week in Toronto. That one still hurts.

And, of course, who can forgive the middle relievers? Ever. Didn't it start in Chicago with Neshek letting Crede go deep on a grand slam in April? Then there were consecutive games in Detroit where they rolled over us late in the game, using Crain and Guerrier like cloth napkins after a big meal. Runs, runs, runs. They even fed the Tigers just last weekend, well after the Motowners had shown themselves to be baseball frauds.

It's been a tough year. I can't really understand how the Twins are 4th in the league in runs scored. Or how the bullpen went from their main strength to their main weakness. Or how the defense, from Buscher and Everett's erratic arms to Casilla's too-quickness has let them down time and again.

Weren't pitching and defense the very Bibles of Gardy's orthodoxy?

Let me say this plain:

How the hell are they still in this thing?

Not only in it, but, looking at the schedule, realistically, they have a damn good shot at winning the division. Especially now that Crede, Quentin and Konerko are DL'd in Chicago.

The Twins are one Jermaine Dye hamstring pull away from being in the playoffs.

Even in 1987 you could at least imagine a scenario for why they might win it--how they were just dangerous enough to get it done. You know, Puckett, Hrbek, Brunansky, Gaetti, Gagne, Viola, Blyleven, Reardon. Guys who could beat you late, in a dark alley, whether with fists or broken bottles. You just didn't want to go back there with that group.

And I still see poor Darrell Evans, wandering just a little too far off third in the 7th inning in Game 3 in Tiger Stadium--no one out and runners on 2nd and 3rd-- as Gaetti takes Laudner's throw and tags him out--Gaetti squeezing it and chicken hopping toward the mound. The Twins were dangerous back then.

But, this year,.... this year has been the most unlikely climb out of failure and defeat that I can remember. They don't look dangerous. No one on their team really scares you. But, they're hanging around. A bunch of young kids that don't know when they've screwed up once too many, or didn't get the job done once too often.

They just don't get it. Baseball is about failure. And they've shown a propensity for being able to ignore that second to no one.

Are they setting us up for the ultimate disappointment? Will my radio, one day soon, land in a heap on the floor after smashing into the wall?

Just what do they think they are doing here?

Quentin Out for Season

Old Twins Cap — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 19:44:30 -0000

I'd rather be lucky than good. Or, at least, I like to say that.

Since the Twins haven't been good lately, they might as well be lucky.

Seems like Carlos Quentin, leading homerun hitter in the American League and a strong candidate for MVP, has just been lost for the season. He is about to undergo wrist surgery and have a pin inserted.

Quetin injured the wrist in Cleveland, was it on Tuesday?

Now, they doctors are saying they will re-evaluate his "situation" in three weeks, and maybe it's just me. But, if you have a screw inserted in your wrist and you are a power hitter, do you really think it would be possible to come back in a month?

No way.

Give me a break.

And the Twins just caught a big one.

Question is: Will they be able to capitalize?

The American League Central may end up as a race to the bottom at this point.

It's on Gardy

Old Twins Cap — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 13:23:57 -0000

I know that the Twins were not supposed to contend this year, and that I should be happy that we are even in the race, gaining experience, the thrill of a pennant chase--all that.

But, at a certain point, you want to win games. We are now entering September and we are at that point. Who knows if we ever get this close again for a decade?

This road trip, 14 games in 15 days, has been billed as the be all and the end all of the Twins season, and to the extent that it is, things are not looking good.

Joe Nathan has blown two saves against teams that are less than solid offensively. Jesse Crain has been battered in the late innings and come back to the hotel with a pair of losses. The offense has come up punchless in three, make it four games, leaving decent pitching performances on the table.

But, last night, WTF? Can anyone explain to me why Harris was in the game, in the 9th inning with a one-run lead? Isn't the manager's job to put his best defenders on the field and maximize the chance of winning?

Harris is not a defensive whiz, to say the least. And, if you watch the losing play carefully you can see that Nathan had the guy at third, made a decent throw, not even all that hard. But, Harris does not move his glove into backhand position, but rather, tries to scoop it down low moving across his body. And, he misses it.

I know. Nathan gets the error. A throw right at Harris's chest and the Twins are likely in 1st place this morning.

But, still, Gardy has got to bring Everett in to play SS and move Punto to third late in games when they are winning. Even if the game goes into extras, he still can pinch hit Buscher for Everett and move Punto back to short.

It's the kind of managerial oversight that you don't often see anymore. And, I wonder if Gardy will acknowledge his mistake on the radio show this morning.

Sure, baseball takes a million turns, and I am the first one to admit that a change like that changes what would have happened on the field. But, could it get any worse than it did? Giving up two runs on a single hit in the bottom of the ninth? And just why did they bring in Everett as a free-agent if they are not going to use him--one of the best shortstops of his generation?

The Twins are finding ways to lose games. And last night's, while there were accessories, has got to be laid at Gardy's feet.

Pecota Founder Becomes a Political Star

Old Twins Cap — Fri, 30 May 2008 19:40:05 -0000

Short diary, but I found this kind of interesting, as I think will some of the numbers-based people on this site.

As you may know, there was a hell of a Democratic primary this year. Trying to figure out the polls and who would win and in what state got to be quite the enterprise on the Internet.

One person, Poblano by web-name, basically distinguished himself on several sites, far and above any other prognosticator, poll or pundit. Actually, he now has a national reputation for being able to call election results. He called, in advance, many primaries with a level of accuracy that had the Web buzzing about who this guy really was and how his methodology, regression analysis, worked.

Well, today the secret is out . He was none other than Nate Silver, from Baseball Prospectus, whom many of you will recognize as the creator of the PECOTA projection analysis.

I don't really follow numbers that carefully, but I find the intersection of politics and baseball, at least in terms of analysis, to be somewhat intriguing.

Also that, in spite of all the money and attention and power in politics, the guy who pegged primary results closest honed his skills trying to understand baseball. That's as American as apple pie.

I kind of like that.

Baseball: Blessing or Curse II

Old Twins Cap — Thu, 29 May 2008 14:43:52 -0000

Last month, after the Twins lost a tough series in Texas, against what was then one of the worst teams in baseball, I posted the following Taoist parable about the difficulty of understanding just what is "good" or "bad" about any given outcome:

A man who lived on northern frontier of China was skilled at interpreting events. One day, for no reason, his horse ran away to the nomads across the border. Everyone tried to console him, but his father said: "What makes you so sure this isn't a blessing?"

Some months later his horse returned, bringing a splendid nomad stallion in tow. Everyone congratulated him, but his father said: "What makes you so sure this isn't a disaster?"

Their household was richer by a fine horse, which the son loved to ride. One day he fell and broke his hip. Everyone tried to console him, but his father said: "What makes you so sure this isn't a blessing?"

A year later the nomads came in force across the border, and every able-bodied man took his bow and went into battle. The Chinese frontiersmen lost nine of every ten who fought. Only because the son was lame did the father and son survive to take care of each other.

Truly, blessing turns to disaster, and disaster to blessing: the changes have no end, nor can the mystery be fathomed.

I bring this up today in regards to Delmon Young and the disastrous play he made in the game Tuesday.

Apparently, in the clubhouse after the game, Twins players walked around in shock, even though they had won the game, feeling bad for Blackburn (who got a no-decision despite pitching well) and Nathan (charged with his first blown save on a harmless looking slicing flyball to left).

Even Gardy started his post-game presser with a halting, dispirited comment to the effect of "Well, we won, but this is basically unacceptable..."

So, fast-forward to Wednesday. Twins down five runs and two outs in the ninth. KC on the verge of breaking a long losing streak. Unfortunately for them, because the game on Tuesday went 12 innings--because of Delmon's ill-advised play--they now do not have access to their closer, Soria, and both lefties, Mahay and Gobble each pitched two innings as well and were unavailable.

So, KC has to go with the best pitchers available, bringing in Peralta as the ninth got out of control, and the Twins come back to tie and eventually win in 10 innings.

The point: like the twists and turns of life itself, at the heart of baseball is a kind of inscrutability. Delmon screws up and seems like he has brought a serious negative aura to the clubhouse, yet as a direct result of the extra three innings of pitching his play caused, the Twins find a way to win the next night, against KC's B-team relievers.

Blessings become curses, curses blessings. The changing circumstances of baseball has no end; nor can its mysteries be fathomed.

But, Delmon, catch the ball anyway next time. Will 'ya? Or, as the Twins "See ball, hit ball" commercial suggests--maybe Delmon really is an enlightened being capable of making these things turn out in the end.

Baseball: Blessing or Curse?

Old Twins Cap — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:05:46 -0000

What are the odds...?

For the second year in a row, the Twins turn a double play on a ball that bounces off the right field wall with a runner on in a tie game.

Let me say that again: the Twins have made two outs on doubles to right with a runner on in a tie game for the second year in a row.

If this happens again in my lifetime, I will cash out my retirement funds, buy a rare bottle of Lafitte Champagne, a boat-full of caviar and prepare to meet my maker.

Last year, it was Tampa Bay and Carl Crawford who steamed into third in the 8th inning (I think) where his teammate was already hanging on the bag, and remarkably the Twins managed to get them both out. If memory serves, the Twins ended up winning that game.

This weekend it was in the 3rd inning on Friday and Texas' runner was thrown out at the plate and the batter was caught at third as he tried to move up on the play. How that runner, who was on second when the ball was hit, could not score on that play is beyond me, especially given that the throw went first to second base and then home. (Sure, he went back to the bag to tag up but still... the ball bounced over Cuddyer's head...)

Still, such an unlikely scenario, to get two outs in a tie game when it looks for all the world like you are about to lose the lead--it really does defy any reasonable sense that one can predict the outcome of a baseball game.

IT reminds me of an ancient Taoist story:

Some months later his horse returned, bringing a splendid nomad stallion in tow. Everyone congratulated him, but his father said: "What makes you so sure this isn't a disaster?"

Truly, blessing turns to disaster, and disaster to blessing: the changes have no end, nor can the mystery be fathomed.

So, Liriano doesn't have the right stuff. Young can't seem to drive the ball. Gomez is all over the place. Mauer has no power. The Twins can't score runs and lose the deciding series game to the worst team in baseball 10-0. It looks as if this season is about to go down the toilet.

But, what makes us so sure this is not a blessing?

I, for one, may be able to get some work done... and maybe make enough money to have that caviar and bottle of Lafitte without stressing about my team and the unusual ways they find to turn double plays.

Santana Booed in NY

Old Twins Cap — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 02:43:36 -0000

I like Johan. It was a great run. He went from a tentative Rule 5 pick to ace lefty Cy Young winner. That happens once a generation, in about one team out of thirty. For awhile there, I think 17 straight wins, he was unbeatable at home.

Well, times have changed. The Grey Lady says, Johan is already getting "Bronx cheers".

The fans at Shea Stadium stood and cheered Johan Santana when he jogged out of the dugout 20 minutes before Saturday’s game. They stood and cheered, as if they were doing the wave, when he walked back from the bullpen, and they stood and cheered again when he ran out to the mound, his first pitch at Shea a few tantalizing minutes away.

When Santana was removed in the seventh inning of the Mets’ 5-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, immediately after giving up his third home run of the afternoon, there was little standing, hardly any cheering and quite a bit of booing. Welcome to New York, Johan.

His line doesn't look terrible, but he pitched into hard luck for a second straight game, facing the other team's ace. Though, surrendering three homers, it's not like he was unhittable.

Which brings up his recent M.O. Sure, great pitcher at missing bats. Tons of strikeouts. But, he throws a lot of pitches. Balls, strikes, fouls. High counts. Hitters can get the hang of fouling off his change-up. And, every so often, a RH hitter finds a fat fastball or a cement mixer slider and takes him out.

The Mets and their kingdom are figuring this out. Santana will keep you close, but you still have got to hit. Unfortunately for Johan, wearing the mantle of the "best pitcher in baseball" is an inhuman expectation, but one he eagerly embraced in getting his many millions.

“We’re not perfect,” Santana said. “I wish we could do everything the way everybody wants, but we’re human beings and we’re going to make mistakes sometimes. It’s just how you react to it or how you bounce back and do your job. Right now, a lot of people are expecting a lot of things from me. I’m trying to do my job and hopefully exceed those expectations.”

Something has got to give. The Mets need pitching now more than ever.