Sean Gallagher was included in the Scott Hairston deal, making the package the As dealt to the Padres Craig Italiano, Ryan Webb, and Gallagher.

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Is he hurt again? Despite starting off this year reasonably well in AA (striking out a ton of batters, only giving up 1 HR in 25 IP, but walking a ton for a respectable FIP), he's hasn't pitched for almost a month. Garcia has very good stuff, including a curveball that is the best in the system according to BA, and a changeup who some think is better than his curveball, as well as a fastball that used to be in the mid-90s, but even in the year right after his TJ surgery was in the low 90s, but will Garcia ever remain healthy enough to make the majors? Is he simply a lost case, or is he a terrific buy-low candidate?

In a very deep dynasty league, I'm looking at four pitching prospects and am having difficulty deciding which one of them I should pick up. Some of them you might already be following; others you might not be. Here are my thoughts about them, and I'd like to hear yours.

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So, VariablesDont has started a mini-uproar by arguing that there is a better prospect than Strasburg in the draft. Ignoring for the moment whether he's right or not about their being a single prospect who's better than Strasburg, if you had to bet who would be the best player to come from the 2009 draft, and your choices were either Stephen Strasburg or all of the other players, who would you choose?

 

Personally, though I suspect that Strasburg has the best chance to be a star, and even a superstar, I'd guess that there is more than a 50% chance that one of the other players drafted will out-play him, either because of the essential uncertainty that faces pitchers, or that that faces all prospects, no matter their position. In other words, I don't mind VariablesDont's theoretical argument. Where I disagree with him is that if you gave me the choice between Strasburg and any single prospect (which he effectively has, with the first pick), I'd go Strasburg. What are your thoughts?

Poll

Who will be the best player drafted in the 2009 draft?

40%

Stephen Strasburg

114 votes

59%

Anybody else

169 votes

283 votes | Poll has closed

Yes, the first month of the season isn't finished yet, but what prospects have especially surprised you, either for the good or the bad?

 

For me, maybe the most surprising thing is the speed that Brett Lawrie is showing (7 steals and 3 triples in only 50 ABs). I also didn't expect Jason Knapp to be quite this effective in A ball, nor just how well Casey Kelly would pitch despite not really wanting to be a pitcher.

 

What's most surprised you?

Elijah Dukes, bastard guy and terrific baseball player, was benched for a game, fined 500 bucks and threatened with a demotion to AAA for coming 5 minutes late. What had he been doing, you ask? Signing baseballs for local Little Leaguers.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090418&content_id=4326576&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

I wish I had something funny to say, but frankly this is too bizarre of a story to comment on. I'm still not convinced this isn't an Onion feature that mlb.com screwed up on.

There were, in the last draft, a whole slew of interesting high school hitting prospects, which is a little rare considering the difficulties many of them face in actually fulfilling their potential. By my count, 5 made both the BA and BP top 100, giving them almost an infield (Skipworth at catcher, Hosmer at first, Tim Beckham at SS, Aaron Hicks in center, and Brett Lawrie playing everywhere else). We've spoken a reasonable amount about Beckham and Hosmer, and a little about Hicks, but very little about the other two. So I'm curious - how would you rate these five? Who's the strongest, the weakest, who's the most likely to fulfil their potential, and who won't?

 

I'm particularly curious as to what you guys think about Brett Lawrie - to me, the accounts of his bat remind me a little of how people were speaking about Moustakas last year, with the exception of the concerns about his glove. From a fantasy perspective, though, Lawrie's glove is a big-risk/big-reward situation. He might be forced to the OF, or even 1B, but if he proves to be a decent 2B as some seem to think he might, well, a power hitting 2B is a valuable thing. Could this happen?

I always like reading other peoples' drafts, so here's one. It's from a 24 team dynasty league

 

Round 1
Pick	Team	Player
1	NY Savages	Alvarez, Pedro 3B PIT
2	Upstate Yanks	Suzuki, Ichiro RF SEA
3	175th Wreckin Crew*	Ordonez, Magglio RF DET
4	Wyoming Jackalope*	Posey, Buster C SF
5	NY Savages	Ynoa, Michael SP OAK
6	Toledo Tomahawks	Jeter, Derek SS NYY
7	going going gone	Beckham, Gordon SS CHW
8	Metropolitan Massacre*	Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY
9	BK Style	Beckham, Tim SS TB
10	Gryphons	Smoak, Justin 1B TEX
11	KAV Braves*	Matsui, Hideki LF NYY
12	718 Crusaders	Matusz, Brian SP BAL
13	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Holt, Bradley SP NYM
14	Birmingham Barons	Davis, Doug SP ARI
15	NY WARRIORS*	Padilla, Vicente SP TEX
16	Northern Colorado Huskies	Hosmer, Eric 1B KC
17	Upstate Yanks	Mora, Melvin 3B BAL
18	Sumter Dodgers	Damon, Johnny LF NYY
19	going going gone	Alonso, Yonder 1B CIN
20	KAV Braves*	Millwood, Kevin SP TEX
21	going going gone	Viciedo, Dayan 3B CHW
22	going going gone	Hicks, Aaron OF MIN
23	Gryphons	Wallace, Brett 3B STL
24	NY Savages	Moore, Matt P TB
Round 2
Pick	Team	Player
1	Gryphons	Dye, Jermaine RF CHW
2	SC Gamecocks	Beltre, Adrian 3B SEA
3	718 Crusaders	Perry, Ryan RP DET
4	Pfunk Allstars*	Izturis, Cesar SS BAL
5	NY WARRIORS*	Uehara, Koji RP BAL
6	KIG - The Boys Of September	Escobar, Kelvim SP ANA
7	Toledo Tomahawks	Guillen, Jose RF KC
8	NY Savages	Hagadone, Nick P BOS
9	going going gone	Kawakami, Kenshin SP ATL
10	718 Crusaders	Davis, Isaac 1B NYM
11	NY Savages	Montgomery, Mike P KC
12	718 Crusaders	Skipworth, Kyle C FLA
13	New Haven Ravens	Martin, Ethan P LA
14	Sumter Dodgers	Wakefield, Tim SP BOS
15	Rockets Red Glare	Friedrich, Christian P COL
16	New Haven Ravens	Lawrie, Brett C MIL
17	KAV Braves*	Lowell, Mike 3B BOS
18	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Cashner, Andrew SP CHC
19	Rockets Red Glare	Robertson, Nate SP DET
20	Toledo Tomahawks	Hunt, Stevem P MIN
21	Toledo Tomahawks	Ferrara, Anthony P STL
22	Toledo Tomahawks	Olmos, Edgar P FLA
23	Gryphons	Melville, Tim P KC
24	KAV Braves*	Drew, J.D. RF BOS
Round 3
Pick	Team	Player
1	Toledo Tomahawks	Knapp, Jason P PHI
2	SC Gamecocks	Zito, Barry SP SF
3	New Haven Ravens	Delgado, Randall P ATL
4	New Haven Ravens	Kelly, Casey P BOS
5	Rockets Red Glare*	Castro, Jason C HOU
6	Sumter Dodgers	Cooper, David 1B TOR
7	Sumter Dodgers*	Byrnes, Eric LF ARI
8	Metropolitan Massacre*	Izturis, Maicer SS ANA
9	BK Style	Fields, Josh D. RP SEA
10	Northern Colorado Huskies	Seaton, Ross P HOU
11	Northern Colorado Huskies	Weglarz, Nicholas 1B CLE
12	718 Crusaders	Dacker, Jaff OF SD
13	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Guttierez, Carlos P MIN
14	Birmingham Barons	Weeks, Jemile 2B OAK
15	NY WARRIORS*	Posada, Jorge C NYY
16	Northern Colorado Huskies	Westmoreland, Ryan OF BOS
17	Upstate Yanks*	Cuddyer, Michael RF MIN
18	718 Crusaders	Satin, Josh 2B NYM
19	Rockets Red Glare*	Anderson, Brian N. CF CHW
20	New York Red Dragons	Gutierrez, Danny P KC
21	New York Red Dragons	Morales, Angel OF MIN
22	NY WARRIORS*	Thome, Jim DH CHW
23	Gryphons	Tazawa, Junichi SP BOS
24	KAV Braves*	Swisher, Nick CF NYY
Round 4
Pick	Team	Player
1	Sumter Dodgers	Taveras, Willy CF CIN
2	SC Gamecocks	Betemit, Wilson 1B CHW
3	New Haven Ravens	Crosby, Casey P DET
4	Pfunk Allstars*	Guillen, Carlos 3B DET
5	NY WARRIORS*	Konerko, Paul 1B CHW
6	NY Savages	Mejia, Jenrry P NYM
7	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Gillapsie, Conor 3B SF
8	New Haven Ravens	Garcia, Christian SP NYY
9	BK Style	Havens, Reese SS NYM
10	Gryphons	Flowers, Tyler C CHW
11	New York Red Dragons	Chatwood, Tyler P ANA
12	718 Crusaders	Haley, Curtis P CLE
13	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Odorizzi, Jake P MIL
14	Birmingham Barons	Schlereth, Daniel RP ARI
15	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Willingham, Josh LF WAS
16	NY WARRIORS*	Helton, Todd 1B COL
17	Upstate Yanks*	Carlson, Jesse RP TOR
18	Sumter Dodgers	Sheffield, Gary DH DET
19	Rockets Red Glare	Lyles, Jordan P HOU
20	New York Red Dragons	Sample, Tyler P KC
21	Birmingham Barons	Lynn, Lance P STL
22	175th Wreckin Crew	Glavine, Tom SP ATL
23	175th Wreckin Crew	Washburn, Jarrod SP SEA
24	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Contreras, Jose A. SP CHW
Round 5
Pick	Team	Player
1	Gryphons	Wigginton, Ty 3B BAL
2	SC Gamecocks	Simon, Alfredo RP BAL
3	175th Wreckin Crew	Griffey, Ken RF SEA
4	Pfunk Allstars*	Glaus, Troy 3B STL
5	NY WARRIORS*	Hafner, Travis DH CLE
6	Amazing Mets-SB*	Marquis, Jason SP COL
7	SC Gamecocks	Capellan, Jose F. RP HOU
8	Amazing Mets-SB*	Cameron, Mike CF MIL
9	BK Style	Franklin, Ryan RP STL
10	Gryphons	Park, Chan Ho SP PHI
11	KAV Braves*	Pierre, Juan LF LA
12	718 Crusaders	Marshall, Brett P NYY
13	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Miley, Wade P ARI
14	Birmingham Barons	Rowand, Aaron CF SF
15	NY Savages	Ellis, Mark 2B OAK
16	Amazing Mets-SB*	Anderson, Garret LF ATL
17	Upstate Yanks*	Miner, Zach SP DET
18	Wyoming Jackalope*	Lopez, Felipe 2B ARI
19	NY WARRIORS*	Backe, Brandon SP HOU
20	New York Red Dragons	Marte, Jefery 3B NYM
21	Birmingham Barons	Fukudome, Kosuke RF CHC
22	New York Red Dragons	Castro, Simon P SD
23	Wyoming Jackalope*	Byrd, Marlon CF TEX
24	New York Red Dragons	Suarez, Albert P TB

The Royals have kind of an interesting set of about 6 pitching prospects, none of whom have gotten a ton of attention, but all of whom have a fairly solid chance of being very good pitchers. John gave Dan Cortes, Carlos Rosa, Dan Duffy, Michael Montgomery, Tim Melville and Dan Gutierrez all B-s or Bs (and only the last was a B-), describing two of them as "solid," a third as having a "solid" debut, and a 4th as a sleeper. Baseball America put them almost in the same order with the exception of Rosa being at the bottom, and Duffy down one or two spots. In their book, however, they said the if Gutierrez could improve his changeup, he might have a "special" ceiling, meaning they might be more positive than their ranking suggests.

I have a few questions. First of all, I was a little surprised that both John and BA put Melville below Montgomery. Melville seems to have lost a bit of his luster, partially due to his unexceptional senior year perfomance in high school and partially due to his last of professional experience. How much do you guys downgrade him because of those factors? Could he still be an ace? How would you rank all of these Royals prospects? Who do you think has the highest upside? Who will fulfil their potential?

Just to clarify from the start, I'm not actually arguing that they are equally strong prospects. Also, as fair warning, this is a fantasy-related question.

I'm in a deep dynasty league with fairly regular scoring where I will almost certainly not have the choice between them, but I was thinking about who I would choose if for some reasons, they fell down to my spot in the draft. According to the most favorable projections, Beckham could be a .290 hitting SS with average power and maybe 30 SB speed - in other words, maybe a Derek Jeter-type with less power but more speed. Jemile Weeks, on the other hand, will probably hit for a lower batting average and even less power, but may steal a few more bases. He's a 2B to Beckham's SS, and various people will have opinions about which is more valuable, but in dynasty leagues where defense is not a factor, it's practically impossible to foresee which position will be rarer in 5 years, making it relatively unimportant.

5 years. That seems to me the issue. So here's the deal - Tim Beckham might very well be a better hitter and player than Jemile Weeks, but it'll probably take an extra 3 or 4 years for him to even make the majors. It's possible that the Rays will move him up faster, but it's unlikely that he will be a serious contributor until at least 21 or so. By that point, Weeks will be 25, and probably have started for 3 years, even if his production was less impressive than Beckham's will be. So to begin with, even assuming that Beckham will be more valuable than Weeks, you have to trade 3 or 4 years of no production for the hope of future production, with all the caveats of injuries and so forth. This is before one even considers that it is relatively rare for a rookie to produce significantly in his first year, meaning it might take until Beckham is 23 or 24 or 25 before he becomes substantially better than Weeks - in other words, in 5, 6 or even 7 years.

I'm not sure how far I'm willing to take this argument, but it seems like there is a case that if you believe that Weeks is within range of being as valuable as Beckham, even if you think that Beckham is ultimately the superior player, that you should pick Weeks over him because the current value outweighs the theoretical future value. A similar argument could be made for Jason Castro over Kyle Skipworth, or a few other people. How much do you buy this? At all?