Particularly over the last few weeks, there has been a lot of discussion on all of the weak points on the Jets. The consensus seems to be that there are now only an average team with glaring weaknesses, and that this seems to be a reason for despair. I would argue, though, that this is precisely the reason for optimism.

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The saying goes, there are three types of lies; lies, damn lies, and statistics. If statistics can be misleading and often ignore what is readily apparent to those watching the games, by considering all of the data they can sometimes be more accurate than any single observer.  Unfortunately, most football statistics are rather imperfect; there's no distinction between a 10 yard pass completed on 3rd and 14 and 3rd and 9, even though their impact is hugely different. The answer, it seems, shouldn't be to ignore statistics, but to look at them carefully.

I've watched all of the Jets' games this season, and my impression was of a team that was solid but inconsistent, a sense that I think is pretty widespread around these parts. On a whim, I glanced at Football Outsiders' site, probably the best analysis of the most advanced football stats available, which can overcome many of the problems with traditional statistics mentioned above, and was astonished to see that they said that until now in 2011, the Jets' performance has been the 2nd best in the NFL. This seemed crazy to me, so I tried to unpack their numbers, and see if there is anything that their statistics show that my eyes simply missed.

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This pitcher for the Nationals has gotten virtually no coverage by major prospect publications (with the exception of John, who gave him a C at the start of the year after flirting with raising his grade as high as a B-), in large part due to his stuff being, frankly, quite mediocre. The quality of his stuff, however, doesn't seem at all to accord with his production.

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I imagine that most of the people on this site have learned the lesson from drafting prospects for need that we all basically agree on the idea of best player available. Yet, on the discussion over whether Montero would be a valuable trade chip to get Greinke, people noted that the Royals might not have a space for him - and the truth is that if there is any team with the prospects that they should seriously consider need rather than value alone, it might be the Royals now. So, I was wondering, if you were the Royals, and thinking more in terms of need (without, obviously, ignoring value), whom would you be looking for?

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There seem to be a couple of misperceptions about the Jets recently that I'd like to dispel. The first is that the Jets are 6-2 because they're winning really close games, often with a significant dose of luck. Some people here have been arguing that this is the sign of a championship team, that they're able to put together enough points in the final minute of a tough situation; others are saying that if they need that luck, then they're not really that good. While these last minute heroics are what we remember, that's not quite what's happening.

Of the Jets 8 games, three have been decided by more than one score; NE, MIA, and Buffalo.* The Jets won all three. Of the five games that have been within one score, the Jets have gone 3-2.

*(I'm counting both MIN and GB as being within one score, because the last score in both games was effectively after the game was over. One of them being a win, and the other being a loss means that it doesn't really change the point no matter which category you put them in)

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Yeah, I know his QB rating this year is below 80, and it was barely 60 last year. I know he can't throw the short pass, and has a tendency to throw intercept-able balls, and that he won't run when he has empty space. I know all of that. But he's still the first Jets QB in my living memory who has the potential to be terrific, and that's all I want for now.

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Now that we've all been pleasantly surprised by Tomlinson's resurgence, it raises the question of just how good he is going to be over the rest of the year. If LT can keep on playing as well as he has, the Jets are in a very strong position. If he can't, though, then Shonn Greene might have to step up sooner rather than later.

Poll

How many yards will LDT run for this year?

0%

Less than 800

0 votes

9%

800-1000

11 votes

64%

1000-1200

73 votes

25%

1200-1400

29 votes

0%

More than 1400

0 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

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I'm not quite sure why we never have conversation on these lists, so thought I'd put this up and see if anybody else wanted to discuss it. For those who like prompts, perhaps sample topics could include who should have/shouldn't have made it, whose stock is rising, falling, what teams look to be gaining or losing ground

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Rumor is that the Phillies will deal Werth to the Rays for prospects, and then flip (the same? other?) prospects for Roy Oswalt. To prompt some comments, perhaps people want to discuss which prospects the Rays might deal for Werth, and which prospects the Phillies might deal for Oswalt? Also, does a Werth deal suggest that Rays have limited faith in Desmond Jennings? Is this a suggestion of a new direction for the Rays from the almost-pure building from within strategy that they had for so long?

Though the Royals LHP prospect was considered to have significant potential, both makeup concerns and command issues kept him from being seen as a major pitching prospect. He just made BA's top-10 list for Royals prospects, and got only a C+ grade from John. Even as Royals prospects are gaining significant steam, Dwyer seems to have some potential, however, for becoming a major prospect.

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Who is Carlos Matias? What BA has seems rather tantalizing, but they don't provide enough details for me to be sure if this guy is as good as he seemed.

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Sean Gallagher was included in the Scott Hairston deal, making the package the As dealt to the Padres Craig Italiano, Ryan Webb, and Gallagher.

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Is he hurt again? Despite starting off this year reasonably well in AA (striking out a ton of batters, only giving up 1 HR in 25 IP, but walking a ton for a respectable FIP), he's hasn't pitched for almost a month. Garcia has very good stuff, including a curveball that is the best in the system according to BA, and a changeup who some think is better than his curveball, as well as a fastball that used to be in the mid-90s, but even in the year right after his TJ surgery was in the low 90s, but will Garcia ever remain healthy enough to make the majors? Is he simply a lost case, or is he a terrific buy-low candidate?

In a very deep dynasty league, I'm looking at four pitching prospects and am having difficulty deciding which one of them I should pick up. Some of them you might already be following; others you might not be. Here are my thoughts about them, and I'd like to hear yours.

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So, VariablesDont has started a mini-uproar by arguing that there is a better prospect than Strasburg in the draft. Ignoring for the moment whether he's right or not about their being a single prospect who's better than Strasburg, if you had to bet who would be the best player to come from the 2009 draft, and your choices were either Stephen Strasburg or all of the other players, who would you choose?

 

Personally, though I suspect that Strasburg has the best chance to be a star, and even a superstar, I'd guess that there is more than a 50% chance that one of the other players drafted will out-play him, either because of the essential uncertainty that faces pitchers, or that that faces all prospects, no matter their position. In other words, I don't mind VariablesDont's theoretical argument. Where I disagree with him is that if you gave me the choice between Strasburg and any single prospect (which he effectively has, with the first pick), I'd go Strasburg. What are your thoughts?

Poll

Who will be the best player drafted in the 2009 draft?

40%

Stephen Strasburg

114 votes

59%

Anybody else

169 votes

283 votes | Poll has closed

Yes, the first month of the season isn't finished yet, but what prospects have especially surprised you, either for the good or the bad?

 

For me, maybe the most surprising thing is the speed that Brett Lawrie is showing (7 steals and 3 triples in only 50 ABs). I also didn't expect Jason Knapp to be quite this effective in A ball, nor just how well Casey Kelly would pitch despite not really wanting to be a pitcher.

 

What's most surprised you?

Elijah Dukes, bastard guy and terrific baseball player, was benched for a game, fined 500 bucks and threatened with a demotion to AAA for coming 5 minutes late. What had he been doing, you ask? Signing baseballs for local Little Leaguers.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090418&content_id=4326576&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

I wish I had something funny to say, but frankly this is too bizarre of a story to comment on. I'm still not convinced this isn't an Onion feature that mlb.com screwed up on.

There were, in the last draft, a whole slew of interesting high school hitting prospects, which is a little rare considering the difficulties many of them face in actually fulfilling their potential. By my count, 5 made both the BA and BP top 100, giving them almost an infield (Skipworth at catcher, Hosmer at first, Tim Beckham at SS, Aaron Hicks in center, and Brett Lawrie playing everywhere else). We've spoken a reasonable amount about Beckham and Hosmer, and a little about Hicks, but very little about the other two. So I'm curious - how would you rate these five? Who's the strongest, the weakest, who's the most likely to fulfil their potential, and who won't?

 

I'm particularly curious as to what you guys think about Brett Lawrie - to me, the accounts of his bat remind me a little of how people were speaking about Moustakas last year, with the exception of the concerns about his glove. From a fantasy perspective, though, Lawrie's glove is a big-risk/big-reward situation. He might be forced to the OF, or even 1B, but if he proves to be a decent 2B as some seem to think he might, well, a power hitting 2B is a valuable thing. Could this happen?

I always like reading other peoples' drafts, so here's one. It's from a 24 team dynasty league

 

Round 1
Pick	Team	Player
1	NY Savages	Alvarez, Pedro 3B PIT
2	Upstate Yanks	Suzuki, Ichiro RF SEA
3	175th Wreckin Crew*	Ordonez, Magglio RF DET
4	Wyoming Jackalope*	Posey, Buster C SF
5	NY Savages	Ynoa, Michael SP OAK
6	Toledo Tomahawks	Jeter, Derek SS NYY
7	going going gone	Beckham, Gordon SS CHW
8	Metropolitan Massacre*	Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY
9	BK Style	Beckham, Tim SS TB
10	Gryphons	Smoak, Justin 1B TEX
11	KAV Braves*	Matsui, Hideki LF NYY
12	718 Crusaders	Matusz, Brian SP BAL
13	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Holt, Bradley SP NYM
14	Birmingham Barons	Davis, Doug SP ARI
15	NY WARRIORS*	Padilla, Vicente SP TEX
16	Northern Colorado Huskies	Hosmer, Eric 1B KC
17	Upstate Yanks	Mora, Melvin 3B BAL
18	Sumter Dodgers	Damon, Johnny LF NYY
19	going going gone	Alonso, Yonder 1B CIN
20	KAV Braves*	Millwood, Kevin SP TEX
21	going going gone	Viciedo, Dayan 3B CHW
22	going going gone	Hicks, Aaron OF MIN
23	Gryphons	Wallace, Brett 3B STL
24	NY Savages	Moore, Matt P TB
Round 2
Pick	Team	Player
1	Gryphons	Dye, Jermaine RF CHW
2	SC Gamecocks	Beltre, Adrian 3B SEA
3	718 Crusaders	Perry, Ryan RP DET
4	Pfunk Allstars*	Izturis, Cesar SS BAL
5	NY WARRIORS*	Uehara, Koji RP BAL
6	KIG - The Boys Of September	Escobar, Kelvim SP ANA
7	Toledo Tomahawks	Guillen, Jose RF KC
8	NY Savages	Hagadone, Nick P BOS
9	going going gone	Kawakami, Kenshin SP ATL
10	718 Crusaders	Davis, Isaac 1B NYM
11	NY Savages	Montgomery, Mike P KC
12	718 Crusaders	Skipworth, Kyle C FLA
13	New Haven Ravens	Martin, Ethan P LA
14	Sumter Dodgers	Wakefield, Tim SP BOS
15	Rockets Red Glare	Friedrich, Christian P COL
16	New Haven Ravens	Lawrie, Brett C MIL
17	KAV Braves*	Lowell, Mike 3B BOS
18	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Cashner, Andrew SP CHC
19	Rockets Red Glare	Robertson, Nate SP DET
20	Toledo Tomahawks	Hunt, Stevem P MIN
21	Toledo Tomahawks	Ferrara, Anthony P STL
22	Toledo Tomahawks	Olmos, Edgar P FLA
23	Gryphons	Melville, Tim P KC
24	KAV Braves*	Drew, J.D. RF BOS
Round 3
Pick	Team	Player
1	Toledo Tomahawks	Knapp, Jason P PHI
2	SC Gamecocks	Zito, Barry SP SF
3	New Haven Ravens	Delgado, Randall P ATL
4	New Haven Ravens	Kelly, Casey P BOS
5	Rockets Red Glare*	Castro, Jason C HOU
6	Sumter Dodgers	Cooper, David 1B TOR
7	Sumter Dodgers*	Byrnes, Eric LF ARI
8	Metropolitan Massacre*	Izturis, Maicer SS ANA
9	BK Style	Fields, Josh D. RP SEA
10	Northern Colorado Huskies	Seaton, Ross P HOU
11	Northern Colorado Huskies	Weglarz, Nicholas 1B CLE
12	718 Crusaders	Dacker, Jaff OF SD
13	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Guttierez, Carlos P MIN
14	Birmingham Barons	Weeks, Jemile 2B OAK
15	NY WARRIORS*	Posada, Jorge C NYY
16	Northern Colorado Huskies	Westmoreland, Ryan OF BOS
17	Upstate Yanks*	Cuddyer, Michael RF MIN
18	718 Crusaders	Satin, Josh 2B NYM
19	Rockets Red Glare*	Anderson, Brian N. CF CHW
20	New York Red Dragons	Gutierrez, Danny P KC
21	New York Red Dragons	Morales, Angel OF MIN
22	NY WARRIORS*	Thome, Jim DH CHW
23	Gryphons	Tazawa, Junichi SP BOS
24	KAV Braves*	Swisher, Nick CF NYY
Round 4
Pick	Team	Player
1	Sumter Dodgers	Taveras, Willy CF CIN
2	SC Gamecocks	Betemit, Wilson 1B CHW
3	New Haven Ravens	Crosby, Casey P DET
4	Pfunk Allstars*	Guillen, Carlos 3B DET
5	NY WARRIORS*	Konerko, Paul 1B CHW
6	NY Savages	Mejia, Jenrry P NYM
7	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Gillapsie, Conor 3B SF
8	New Haven Ravens	Garcia, Christian SP NYY
9	BK Style	Havens, Reese SS NYM
10	Gryphons	Flowers, Tyler C CHW
11	New York Red Dragons	Chatwood, Tyler P ANA
12	718 Crusaders	Haley, Curtis P CLE
13	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Odorizzi, Jake P MIL
14	Birmingham Barons	Schlereth, Daniel RP ARI
15	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Willingham, Josh LF WAS
16	NY WARRIORS*	Helton, Todd 1B COL
17	Upstate Yanks*	Carlson, Jesse RP TOR
18	Sumter Dodgers	Sheffield, Gary DH DET
19	Rockets Red Glare	Lyles, Jordan P HOU
20	New York Red Dragons	Sample, Tyler P KC
21	Birmingham Barons	Lynn, Lance P STL
22	175th Wreckin Crew	Glavine, Tom SP ATL
23	175th Wreckin Crew	Washburn, Jarrod SP SEA
24	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Contreras, Jose A. SP CHW
Round 5
Pick	Team	Player
1	Gryphons	Wigginton, Ty 3B BAL
2	SC Gamecocks	Simon, Alfredo RP BAL
3	175th Wreckin Crew	Griffey, Ken RF SEA
4	Pfunk Allstars*	Glaus, Troy 3B STL
5	NY WARRIORS*	Hafner, Travis DH CLE
6	Amazing Mets-SB*	Marquis, Jason SP COL
7	SC Gamecocks	Capellan, Jose F. RP HOU
8	Amazing Mets-SB*	Cameron, Mike CF MIL
9	BK Style	Franklin, Ryan RP STL
10	Gryphons	Park, Chan Ho SP PHI
11	KAV Braves*	Pierre, Juan LF LA
12	718 Crusaders	Marshall, Brett P NYY
13	Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees Win	Miley, Wade P ARI
14	Birmingham Barons	Rowand, Aaron CF SF
15	NY Savages	Ellis, Mark 2B OAK
16	Amazing Mets-SB*	Anderson, Garret LF ATL
17	Upstate Yanks*	Miner, Zach SP DET
18	Wyoming Jackalope*	Lopez, Felipe 2B ARI
19	NY WARRIORS*	Backe, Brandon SP HOU
20	New York Red Dragons	Marte, Jefery 3B NYM
21	Birmingham Barons	Fukudome, Kosuke RF CHC
22	New York Red Dragons	Castro, Simon P SD
23	Wyoming Jackalope*	Byrd, Marlon CF TEX
24	New York Red Dragons	Suarez, Albert P TB

The Royals have kind of an interesting set of about 6 pitching prospects, none of whom have gotten a ton of attention, but all of whom have a fairly solid chance of being very good pitchers. John gave Dan Cortes, Carlos Rosa, Dan Duffy, Michael Montgomery, Tim Melville and Dan Gutierrez all B-s or Bs (and only the last was a B-), describing two of them as "solid," a third as having a "solid" debut, and a 4th as a sleeper. Baseball America put them almost in the same order with the exception of Rosa being at the bottom, and Duffy down one or two spots. In their book, however, they said the if Gutierrez could improve his changeup, he might have a "special" ceiling, meaning they might be more positive than their ranking suggests.

I have a few questions. First of all, I was a little surprised that both John and BA put Melville below Montgomery. Melville seems to have lost a bit of his luster, partially due to his unexceptional senior year perfomance in high school and partially due to his last of professional experience. How much do you guys downgrade him because of those factors? Could he still be an ace? How would you rank all of these Royals prospects? Who do you think has the highest upside? Who will fulfil their potential?

Just to clarify from the start, I'm not actually arguing that they are equally strong prospects. Also, as fair warning, this is a fantasy-related question.

I'm in a deep dynasty league with fairly regular scoring where I will almost certainly not have the choice between them, but I was thinking about who I would choose if for some reasons, they fell down to my spot in the draft. According to the most favorable projections, Beckham could be a .290 hitting SS with average power and maybe 30 SB speed - in other words, maybe a Derek Jeter-type with less power but more speed. Jemile Weeks, on the other hand, will probably hit for a lower batting average and even less power, but may steal a few more bases. He's a 2B to Beckham's SS, and various people will have opinions about which is more valuable, but in dynasty leagues where defense is not a factor, it's practically impossible to foresee which position will be rarer in 5 years, making it relatively unimportant.

5 years. That seems to me the issue. So here's the deal - Tim Beckham might very well be a better hitter and player than Jemile Weeks, but it'll probably take an extra 3 or 4 years for him to even make the majors. It's possible that the Rays will move him up faster, but it's unlikely that he will be a serious contributor until at least 21 or so. By that point, Weeks will be 25, and probably have started for 3 years, even if his production was less impressive than Beckham's will be. So to begin with, even assuming that Beckham will be more valuable than Weeks, you have to trade 3 or 4 years of no production for the hope of future production, with all the caveats of injuries and so forth. This is before one even considers that it is relatively rare for a rookie to produce significantly in his first year, meaning it might take until Beckham is 23 or 24 or 25 before he becomes substantially better than Weeks - in other words, in 5, 6 or even 7 years.

I'm not sure how far I'm willing to take this argument, but it seems like there is a case that if you believe that Weeks is within range of being as valuable as Beckham, even if you think that Beckham is ultimately the superior player, that you should pick Weeks over him because the current value outweighs the theoretical future value. A similar argument could be made for Jason Castro over Kyle Skipworth, or a few other people. How much do you buy this? At all?

 

One of the fun games many of us like to play is to bash the Hall of Fame comps for prospects - Tim Alderson is the next Greg Maddux, Pedro Alvarez is the next Mike Schmidt, etc - and of course in 99% of cases, we will be right. That being said, considering that about 3 or so players get selected to the Hall of Fame each year, and most outstanding players spend in the area of 3 or so years in the minors (top college players closer to 1, high school players 3 or more, and players from Latin America closer to 5), there are probably in the area of 10 or so future Hall of Famers in the minor leagues today. They aren't necessarily the top 10 rated prospects - in fact they are almost certainly not - and some might not even be in top 100s. But they are probably somewhere in the minor leagues. Who do you think they might be?

Over the last few weeks there have been a series of debates about whether pitchers like Neftali Feliz and Madison Bumgarner are stronger than pitchers like Jhoulys Chacin and Derek Holland. Most people seem to think that Feliz and Bumgarner are stronger prospects, but the question of just how much stronger they are has been fought bitterly. 

A number of people have tried to argue that Feliz and Bumgarner's success at lower levels should be downgraded because they rely primarily on their fastballs. They say that considering you can't rely strictly on a terrific fastball at the higher levels, therefore they will face more difficulties than Holland and Chacin who have better secondary stuff. 

Intuitively, this seems sensible but I'm wondering if it's true. Considering none of these pitchers (with the arguable exception of Holland) have had consistent, outstanding success at AA or higher levels, it seems like they all have to improve a lot. Those people seem to be arguing that a pitcher with a good fastball and a decent breaking ball in the low minors is more likely to become a good major league pitcher than one with a terrific fastball and an uncertain breaking ball. 

I have a problem with this argument on a number of counts. First, if Holland's and Chacin's secondary stuff were as strong as some seem to believe, then it should show up in their stats. They should have blown A ball hitters away at the same rates that Feliz and Bumgarner do; I don't understand why an A ball hitter is supposed to be decimated by a terrific fastball, but not by a terrific curveball. Second, pitchers with as good fastballs as Bumgarner and Feliz might be able to get away without an excellent breaking pitch even in the majors; certainly they'll need a good or even a decent breaking ball, but their secondary stuff probably doesn't have to be as strong as Chacin's or Holland's would. 

I'm wondering what other people think; are there any pitchers like Feliz and Bumgarner in the past? Did their secondary stuff develop or did they flail in the higher levels?

After I did this for the 1998 Draft, somebody wondered if maybe that year was unusual, and suggested that the 1997 one was considered to be significantly stronger. After having done the 1997 one too, I can say with some certainty I will never do another one. As it happens, the '98 draft was significantly stronger than the '97, both with greater star talent and more depth, though 23 teams managed to find a player of some value (in contrast to 20 in 1998). Very few teams managed to find even one player who would be a star, and with the exception of the Blue Jays who managed to steal not only Vernon Wells, but Michael Young in the 5th round, and Orlando Hudson in the 43rd nobody got 2. The theme of this is clear: it's very, very difficult to get real major leaguers from the draft because prospects and prospecting is so uncertain.

Blue Jays: Michael Young (5), Vernon Wells (1:5), Orlando Hudson (43), Mark Hendrickson (20)

Astros: Lance Berkman (1:16). Tim Redding (20)

A's: Tim Hudson (6)

 

Pirates: Mike Gonzalez (30)

Phillies: Derrick Turnbow (5), Randy Wolf (2) Johnny Estrada (17)

Rockies: Aaron Cook (2), Chone Figgins (4)

Angels: Troy Glaus (1:3) Scot Shields (38), Matt Wise (6)

Cardinals: Rick Ankiel (2), Adam Kennedy (1:20)

Diamondbacks: Jack Cust (1:30), Alex Cintron (36)

Reds: Scott Williamson (9)

Cubs: Jon Garland (1:10) Scott Downs (3)

Twins: Michael Cuddyer (1:9), Matt LeCroy (1:50), J.C. Romero (21)

Orioles: Jerry Hairston (11), Jayson Werth (1:22)

Atlanta Braves: Horacio Ramirez (5), Danny Wright (46)

Mariners: Joel Piniero (12)

Giants: Scott Linabrink (2)

Devil Rays: Toby Hall (9)

Royals: Jeremy Affeldt (3)

Red Sox: David Eckstein (19), Travis Harper (3)

Pirates: John Grabow (3)

Mets: Jason Phillips (24)

Rangers: Mike Lamb (7)

Marlins: Ross Gload (13)

Kneejerk predictions about this year's draft might be more fun, but perspective can be interesting too. I looked at the 1998 draft and tried to get a sense of which teams gained the most, or lost the most, from their picks.

That draft was most memorable for the J.D. Drew drama, who would finally sign with the Cardinals after rejecting the Phillies in the previous year. Despite the hub-hub, what's most startling is how difficult it is for a team to get anybody who impacts their major league team from the draft. I tried to list all of the players who were signed who would either start or be a significant pitcher for at least 2 or more years at the major league level. Even with considering such players like Joe Beimel as significant (4.38 ERA over 443 major league IP over 8 major league seasons), a total of 10 teams still got absolutely no significant player over the entire draft.

Even in a draft that included such talents as J.D. Drew and Pat Burrell, it is even harder for them to get a star after the 1st round. It is nearly impossible for a team to not only find a major league player in a late round, but then to sign him. The Chicago White Sox get double credit for not only finding and securing any major leaguer in the 38th round, but Mark Buehrle. To give a sense of how difficult this is, the next future major leaguer to have any impact who was signed by the team who drafted were Mike Koplove and Tim Spooneybarger, who both provided two solid years of relief after having been drafted by the Diamondbacks and Braves respectively in the 29th round. (In Spooneybarger's defense, he might have had an even greater impact had he not needed Tommy John's surgery at a pretty young age)

The teams are listed in the order of what I think were the best drafts. The players are listed in order of what I think were the best picks. The numbers in parenthesies refer to which round they were chosen. If they were in the 1st round, they get two numbers to denote with which pick.

A's: Mark Mulder (1:2) Eric Byrnes (8), Gerald Laird (2)

Reds: Adam Dunn (2), B.J. Ryan (17) Austin Kearns (1:7)

White Sox: Mark Buehrle (38) Josh Fogg (3), Aaron Rowand (1:35), Kip Wells (1:16)

Rockies: Matt Holliday (7), Juan Pierre (13)

Cardinals: J.D. Drew (1:5) Jack Wilson (9)

Indians: C.C. Sabathia (1:20)

Phillies: Pat Burrell (1:1), Nick Punto (21) Geoff Geary (15), Jason Michaels (4)

Astros: Brad Lidge (1:17) John Buck (7)

Rangers: Carlos Pena (1:10)

Brewers: Bill Hall (6)

The Cubs got Corey Patterson (1:3), Eric Hinske (17), Ohman (8)

The Devil Rays got Aubrey Huff (5), Brandon Backe (18), Joe Kennedy (8)

Red Sox: Mike Maroth (3), Adam Everett (1:12)

Tigers: Brandon Inge (2), Jeff Weaver (1:14)

Blue Jays: Felipe Lopez (1:8), Jay Gibbons (14)

Expos: Brad Wilkerson (1:33)

Dodgers: David Ross (7), Scott Proctor (5)

Braves: Tim Spooneybarger (29)

Diamondbacks: Mike Kopolove (29)

Pirates: Joe Beimel (18).

Kevin Slowey, with his only good stuff and terrific control in Minnesota, seemed like an easy comparison for former Twins pitcher Brad Radke. His minor league numbers, however, were a cut above Radke's, and now he seems to be putting together some very unusual lines that are probably still better than the predecessor.

 

 

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My brother and I are in the same fantasy baseball league, and we occasionally send each other overly long comments about baseball and fantasy baseball. I think this recent e-mail might be of some interest to other people:

I think the As are onto something quite interesting in regards to pitching. It's of some use to our league but also for general interest.

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Cowgill, a 22 year old drafted in the 5th round, has been absolutely battering A- ball. In 64 atbats, he has 11 home runs. His BB:K is a respectable 9:16, and he's managed to put up an 1190 OPS (not that hard when you have an ISOP of .547 - no, that isn't a typo) despite batting only .266 (startlingly enough, his BABIP is .162).

 

Does anybody know anything more about him? Could he be a good majorleaguer?

Though he doesn't have terrific stuff, he always managed to get results, striking out nearly a person per inning in A+ and AA last year at age 23 while walking only 36 people over a total of 149 IP. In his first ten or so starts in AAA this year, he got demolished, however, suggesting that the scouts' doubts were valid. Recently, however, Leblanc has pitched terrifically. In his last 5 starts, he has struck out 39 people in 29 innings, walking 10 (including 9 strikeouts and only 1 walk and 1ER in 7 innings today). He still has a 6.15 ERA on the year, but do you think he'll be brought up to the majors soon? What sort of pitcher do you think he'll be?

Like maybe others here, I started following baseball when people like Bill James were only beginning to be influential, and before the days of some these more modern statistics. This meant that when I looked at players like Ted Williams or Joe Dimaggio, the two best players of the 1940s, I was normally looking at their triple crown stats. Recently, I re-looked at some of these older players paying particular attention to what we now know are the more important statistics, including walks and strikeouts and homers. Here is what I found for those two people. I also calculated some BABIPs for fun.

 

Joe Dimaggio looks even better - one of the only players in history to hit almost as many homers as strikeouts (361 to 369) over his career, despite having an extremely high batting average (.325 over his career), one wonders why it was lower than other players'. We don't have line drive percentage data for these players (or at least I don't) but his BABIP over his career was .304. In his best year, 1939, at age 24, he batted .381/.446/.671 (OPS+ 184), it was partially because his BABIP rose to .354 (though hitting 30 homers and striking out only 20 times in 462 at bats didn't hurt)

 

Ted Williams needed a bit more luck to get his .400 batting average. At age 22 in 1941, he batted .406/.551/.735 (OPS+ of 235!!!). His numbers were relatively similar to Dimaggio's, with 37 homers and only 27 strikeouts in 456 at bats (though he added 147 walks to Dimaggio's 52), but he managed the extra 25 batting average points by having a BABIP of .378. Over his career, in 7706 ABs he had a disturbing 2021 walks while striking out only 709 times (just under 3-1). His .329 career BABIP helped him get a .344 career batting average